Bullpen Report: April 20, 2014
• As Ben alluded to last night, the Mets seemed to be on the verge of making a change in the ninth inning. This morning, Terry Collins made it official. Kyle (Professor) Farnsworth is the newest closer in New York. Now that you are done racing to the wire to try and grab him, let’s chat. Farnsworth turned 38 last week, which aside from making me feel old, doesn’t portend good things for his career arc. His fastball velocity has fallen every year since 2009. It used to be a blistering 96 mph, now it barely broaches 91. Last season was the first his SwStr% had been below 10% since 2007, and it was only the second time in his career he didn’t make it into double digits.
It’s not all bad news, though. His SIERA the last two seasons has been 3.94 and 3.57, not great marks but not terrible, either. While his K% has slipped downward over the years, he has also cut the walks. This makes him more prone to BABIP swings but he helps make up for it by not giving out as many free trips to first base. Will he remain the closer for the remainder of 2014? It feels unlikely. However, the two best “next” options in the Mets system (Gonzalez Germen and Vic Black) both have inconsistent histories and some degree of command issues. For example, Black hasn’t allowed a run at Triple-A this season, but also owns an ugly 6/7 K/BB. Unless Farnsworth implodes out of the gate, it’s not tough to see him hold the job for at least a little while. Just don’t expect miracles.
• Jason Grilli blew his third save of the season. I am too lazy to peek through the game logs, but essentially it took (insert a really long time here) for him to blow three saves last year. Thanks, Twitter. So should we be worried? His swinging strikes are right where they should be (14+%), but his K% is down nearly 50%. With a fastball velocity that is sitting right on top of his 2013 mark, I imagine the low punchout total is somewhat of a fluke and is contributing to his bumpy start in 2014. Closers are a fickle breed, but I am not panicking. In fact, Grilli’s peripherals look so in line with last season I’d be targeting him heavily if an owner is getting nervous.
• Luke Gregerson got the save in Oakland this afternoon, continuing the merry-go-round of A’s closers while Jim Johnson continues his breather. One note, Sean Doolittle’s contract extension may play a small role in this bullpen. A potential reason for keeping him out of the ninth inning was to keep his arbitration value from climbing. However, now that he has been inked to a guaranteed deal, that issue goes out the window. Doolitte was used to get some lefties out in the seventh inning today, so this situation has truly played out like a platoon the last week and a half or so. That said, “JJ” has pitched fairly well since his “demotion” and may get another crack at the job soon. I’d scoop him up in any leagues he was dropped in anticipation of that potential move.
• Quick hits: Jim Henderson continues to struggle, allowing another run today to run his ERA to 4.70. It’s not as bad as it looks (3.23 xFIP) but BABIP and homers are killing him. Meanwhile, Francisco Rodriguez tallied another save. I’m not dropping Henderson in deep leagues, but it’s going to be an uphill battle for him to get the ninth inning back anytime soon. Jose Veras did not look good today, pushing his xFIP up to 9.81 on the season (blech). Droppable in all leagues. Pedro Strop pitched the ninth yesterday in a four run game, while other ninth inning favorite Hector Rondon was used in the 7th/8th innings. I like Rondon better from a peripherals standpoint, but Strop may get first crack at running with the job (if — you know — the Cubs could win). Sean Marshall is back. If you were waiting to use the lefty in holds leagues, go get him, although it wouldn’t hurt to make sure his stuff looks good in a couple outings before activating him.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
How soon until Putz replaces Addison Reed?
1 more blown save and Reed gets yanked seeing how fast the D’backs are yanking their starters.
Not sure if it’s one more blown save. His peripherals aren’t terrible and he’s really only had a couple rough outings of his doing (two outings he gave up runs which weren’t earned).
AZ traded for him to be their closer, so I expect he’ll have a bit longer leash than one more BS. His velo and peripherals look fine, too, so I don’t expect him to be suffering meltdown after meltdown in the near future.
We’ve seen mediocre relief men hold jobs down as the closer for a full season. It’s so bold of you to be so brash on Farnsworth being the closer all season. It’s impossible to predict. I don’t understand how you can write articles being passively negative on a guy. Baseball is a weird sport, odd things happen. There is no evidence that Jim Johnson is going to get another crack at the closing gig but you go and say that he will get one and for owners to go pick him up. Such bold statements… You have to take these writer’s opinions with a grain of salt.
I’m pretty sure the writer is merely making predictions off of age and performance.
I was brash on Valverde not holding the job and look where that got us.
Of course, I also expected LaTroy Hawkins to be out of a job by now, too.
Sure, MR with weaker peripherals can hold down the job all season. Predicting RP value is tricky because unlike a SP with a guaranteed rotation spot, assessing them in fantasy not only depends on understanding their projected performance but also trying to figure out the whims of their manager (and all 30 managers think differently w/r/t to the 9th).
If I batted 1.000, I wouldn’t be writing for RG, I would have been covertly scooped up by the Astros by now. The best me (and any other fantasy writer) can do is make educated guesses based on the most likely outcomes of a player’s performance.
“There is no evidence that Jim Johnson is going to get another crack at the closing gig”
Except Roenicke stated going into the season they want him to be their closer and that they’re just going to wait until he gets his stuff/velocity back before giving him the job back.
That is nice of Ron Roenicke to be so confident in Jim Johnson, but I don’t think he has much say in what Oakland does..
What’s up with Rex Brothers in Colorado? Hasn’t seen the 8th inning in awhile. They used him in the 6th inning tonight, with three other relievers following. Has he definitively been passed up by Ottavino and Belisle?
Looks like another trendy trendster down the drain. So much for my main holds man this season 🙁
I should probably expand on him in a BR, and maybe I’ll do so later in the week.
Long story short, everything is going wrong. Fastball down, whiffs down, control gone. It’s all a SSS, but I wonder if Brothers is hiding an injury.
My thoughts on the Colorado sitution are actually more interested in where the hell Ottavino came from? I saw you just put him as the setup guy for the first time today, but I had picked him up 2 weeks ago in my NL only and his numbers are just silly! I was wondering if this was the new ‘closer of the future’ here! His history doesn’t suggest it, but really interested to learn more.
Gregerson or Farnsworth?
Gregerson is the better pitcher, but I feel Farnsworth might get more opps/longer crack at the job.
Is there any evidence the Royals would turn to Davis or Crow (over Herrera) if Holland went down?
I noticed that KC wasn’t using Hererra in high leverage situations. Look at the game logs and see that in a 4-2 game the starter goes 6 IP, then Crow/Davis/Holland for 7/8/9. Hererra pitches the 6th or 7th in losing games.
Great column as always! Am a little confused about the Farnsworth velocity sentence… PitchFX seems to be indicating his 4 seamer has been hitting 95mph this year; is that right?
Great catch.
I was using the BIS data, but it appears they lump his cutter in with his four-seamer. Looking at the PitchF/X data, his cutter has dropped from 90 mph to 84 mph over the past few seasons, but his four-seamer has only dropped off a little.
I’d have to do a bit more digging as to how similar the cutter is to the 4-seamer, but using BIS really deceives you into thinking his max velo has dropped off.
Not the cutter, but the sinker. Right?
In today’s save and he hit 95 twice and 96 once. Even if the gun is off a little, it seems pretty clear to me he hasn’t actually lost velocity. He’s simply transitioned into a pitcher throwing sinking fastballs instead of 4-seamers, a transition that started last year. But I’d like to hear further thoughts on this from people who understand this stuff better than me.
I picked up Farnsworth accepting that the Ks won’t be there, and that he won’t be an elite closer, but I think he’ll do just fine getting saves without hurting my ratios.
It seems that everyone is reporting Farnsworth throwing between 90 and 91. I watched the game to tonight and he hit 95 & 96 regularly and as sjcstavros said pitchfx seems to agree that his velocity on the 4 seamer is still 95 range. Since most people think he is throwing at reduced velocity as that is what it says everywhere, does that make him a good trade target. He might be undervalued if his owner doesn’t seem to know he is actually throwing in the mid 90s.
Agree. On Farnsworth’s player page it looks like the fastball reported under “Pitch Type” data is reflecting an average of his 4-seamer, cutter and sinker. the Pitchf/x data shows his 4-seamer is still over 94, and about 1 mph higher than it was in ’12.
Mr. Zarzycki, how often do you watch individual pitcher’s by jumping to their innings on MLB TV or another source? Going past the pure numbers and observing how they operate?
Do they get flustered? Do they select their different pitch types in a smart way? Do they look like a pitcher or a thrower?
I watched all of Salazar’s innings so far and he looks like a thrower. It seems like he selects the wrong pitch type for the count. And way too often he throws a meatball or leaves an offspeed spinner down the middle and gets crushed.
Complete opposite was James Shields picking Houston apart the other day. He was mixing pitch type and location and baffling the Astros. Really outsmarting the hitters.
Do you think the same video observations be used to assess current and potential closers? To guess whether they have the makeup and smarts and makeup to be a Closer?
If some is picking the wrong pitches it is most likely Yan Gomes, not Danny Salazar.
Hmmm. Sorry my question didn’t make sense.
The numbers alone showed Shields dominated and Salazar struggled with pitch count and mistakes, but watching the video showed me Sal didn’t know which pitch to use while Shields was in the hitters’ heads exploiting their second guessing. Pretty sure Shields K’d Springer twice in a row with the same changeup.
Springer was thinking he’ll do something different this time.
I think the point of who the catcher is speaks more to an evaluation between teams. Shields is a really smart veteran and Sal Perez is highly regarded defensively and managing the game. While Yan Gomes is supposed to be solid (better than Santana) Salazar is very inexperienced and might be suffering from nerves and inability to handle April weather on top of the inexperience of veteran knowledge. He’s a great pitcher, no doubt, so what’s the point when it comes to closers? Salazar and Brothers are actually great comps. No one doubts them, but they are struggling mightily. Past performance shows true talent, not SSS! Knowing that Valverde sucks and seeing Valverde suck shouldn’t be any different.
Sergio Santos has just been dropped in my 8 team 5×5 HTH league. Is he worth picking up at this stage given his recent wildness and Janssen’s pending return?
I wouldn’t count Serio Santos’ horrible outing in Minnesota. It was so cold during that game that the TOR relievers were having a hard time holding the ball. With that outing removed he still has been walking too many people, but its not as horrible as his era/whip look right now.
I’ve been offered Jesse Chavez for David Robertson. Would you accept that trade? I have a lot of RP (Papelbon, Fieri, Bronxton), but Robertson is the best of all. Points league, H2H.
Thanks in advance.
*Broxton, sorry. We can’t edit our comments once they are posted, can we?
Henderson allowed a two out single to Davis and was pulled for Smith who promptly gave up a couple of hits to allow the inherited runner to score. Not sure if that outing counts as struggling or not.
When someone uses the term ‘struggling’ it generally encompases more than 1 inning of non-suckiness. So, you’re a Brewers fan or a Henderson fantasy owner?
What percent of save chances ROS the Astros actually get do you think will fall to Josh Fields?