Bullpen Report: April 2, 2018
Now that the first series of the season are the in the books, it’s time to break out the Bullpen Report closer grid. At the conclusion of each installment, we will list the current closer, a color-coded rating for the stability of the closer situation and the two most likely closer replacements in the event of an injury or role change for the incumbent.
The initial version of the grid is practically a sea of green. Though a few closers have had their first meltdowns of the season already, none has endangered himself to the point of earning the dreaded red designation. Only three situations — the Orioles, White Sox and Cardinals — are currently coded as yellow. The first two teams entered the season with co-closers, while the Cardinals are going with a committee until newly-signed Greg Holland is ready to report to the big-league team. Holland is working with Advanced Class A Palm Beach for now, but once he is promoted, he will get the closer’s spot in the grid. According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that should happen in 10 days, when Holland will be eligible to be promoted.
The Orioles’ situation is the closest to turning from yellow to red, as Brad Brach blew a save on opening day against the Twins and then pitched the eighth inning on Sunday, when Minnesota had built a seven-run lead. Four days and two appearances into the season, it might seem premature to look to Brach to lose the chance to close, and in fact, it is — hence, the yellow rating instead of red. However, manager Buck Showalter never anointed Brach as the sole closer, as he planned to give Darren O’Day save opportunities as well, even before the season began. While Showalter also cited Mychal Givens as a potential ninth-inning candidate, it appears that Brach and O’Day will initially be his primary options.
Brach’s opening day struggles could open the door for O’Day to get the next save chance. The latter’s consistent track record of posting high strikeout and soft contact rates could bode well for him to take charge of the closer’s role, at least until Zach Britton’s anticipated return in late May or early June.
Joakim Soria got the White Sox’s first save of the season in a 4-3 win against the Royals on Saturday, but that’s not a sign that manager Rick Renteria is going to turn to the 12-year veteran for every save situation. Nate Jones is still part of the closer tandem, as Renteria told the Chicago Tribune that “in different cases, you could see Jones in the ninth and Soria in the eighth.”
Despite the absence of presumed closer Mark Melancon (elbow flexor strain), the Giants’ closer situation appears stable enough to earn a green rating. Not only has Hunter Strickland emerged from the first series of the season with a pair of scoreless innings that each produced a save, but the righty has earned Bruce Bochy’s trust. The Giants’ manager did not name any other relievers when he told reporters that Strickland was going to step in for Melancon. The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly surmised that Strickland might keep the closer’s job even after Melancon is ready to return. While that remains to be seen, fantasy owners should be able to count on saves from Strickland in the coming weeks.
The Marlins and Angels also received a green rating. Both situations were fluid last season, and it may not take much for those bullpens to get downgraded to yellow. After pitching a perfect ninth inning in a tie game with the Cubs on Saturday, the Marlins’ Brad Ziegler allowed four runs in the 10th frame, absorbing the loss. Even though he has appeared in just two games so far, it’s not too early to put Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider on your watch list.
Angels closer Blake Parker has allowed a run in each of his two appearances this season, and he was removed after retiring one of four batters in Sunday’s win over the A’s. Keynan Middleton was summoned to secure the victory, and he emerged with his first save of 2018. Should Parker continue to struggle, there are several candidates to replace him, including Middleton, Cam Bedrosian, Jim Johnson and Blake Wood, who pitched the eighth inning with a four-run lead on Sunday.
Quick pitches: Seung Hwan Oh and Joe Kelly got their first saves of the season, as Roberto Osuna and Craig Kimbrel were respectively shielded from having to work a third straight day…Anthony Swarzak sustained a sore left oblique in Saturday’s game against the Cardinals. He will have an MRI on Monday…Yonny Chirinos‘ debut as a Rays long reliever went exceedingly well. He shut out the Red Sox over four innings on Sunday, allowing a single and a walk while hitting two batters.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.
Very reassuring two save, 5 K day from Rivero after blowing up on opening day and struggling through ST.
It’s always sport here in comments to disagree with the grid so take this in good nature, but the Angels’ situation should be at least yellow if not red. Scioscia hopped around from closer to closer last year with no clear agenda/plan and Parker gave up runs in each of his appearances to start the year. To me, getting yanked from a 7-4 game with 1 out and runners on the corners is a big flashing warning sign. It’s not like he brought in someone for the platoon advantage either since Middleton and Parker are both righties. It’s not like Parker was giving up bombs either – walk, K, single, single.
As a Parker owner, trust me, I’m really worried.
Agreed, and wondering why Middleton isn’t on the chart at all
I came down here to the comments specifically to ask why Middleton isn’t on the chart.
Based on usage, comments from Scoscia, and observation of previous bullpen decisions, I’d go get Middleton if you have a spot for him. Don’t know if I’d drop Parker for him just yet though…
Based on last year, Sciocsia seems to chase the “hot hand”. Middleton will probably run with it for a little while until he has a bad week and then it’s the next guy. I can see 4 guys getting at least 5 saves in that pen.
Chirinos or Peacock for my reliever in a SP slot going forward? SV+HLD are nice, but so are ratios and innings from that slot.
I prefer guys with potential holds or save opportunities personally, so I have Bud Norris in 2 leagues, and I’m also keeping a close eye on Robert Gsellman (who already has a hold) and Amir Garrett. I’ve seen absolutely nothing that convinces me that Chirinos will be used in high leverage situations. He wasn’t a dominating SP in the minors; not convinced he’ll be this amazing RP based off one appearance where he hit 2 batters. Peacock is great, but I’m not convinced he’ll see anything high leverage either, with Devenski around and the depth of the Stros bullpen.
what does the italicized font on the chart mean again forgot?
Since it’s just the closers, I think it means: “Closer”
Hard to believe the Dodgers would use Baez if Jansen went down. I see Fields as the most likely to inherit the closer spot.
This is the only depth chart I’ve seen without Fields as the next man up.
Would it be feasible & useful to have two grids? The first is a grid for daily players, for whom the information above seems to be a great fit. The other would be for weekly players who need to plan and execute roster moves with a longer term view and with constrained resources to make changes. For such weekly players, a more conservative assessment (e.g. the Angels situation would still be yellow, if not red, given Scioscia’s history and Parker’s start) would be more helpful.
Ottavino, man. I have been watching the Rockies recently and he appears to be back. I dare say he had the most efficient outings of ANY reliever on opening week. I doubt he challenges Davis for the closer role, but in holds leagues or to help with the ratios, as he is going to be very valuable, especially if he returns to the form of two years ago pre-injury.
A message from the OCD department:
Would it be possible to wrap the text?
Or just make the font sizes a bit smaller. I’m pretty sure they were smaller in last year’s chart.
A couple notes on the chart:
BOS: If Joe Kelly got the save on Kimbrel’s off day, then shouldn’t he be 2nd in the chart? That said, it doesn’t seem like Cora is in love with using the same guys to set up for Kimbrel every time. So far, Heath Hembree, Bobby Poyner, Carson Smith, Matt Barnes, Marcus Walden, and Joe Kelly have been used to either set up for a save or take Kimbrel’s slot when he needed a day off. That bullpen might be very messy outside of Kimbrel all season long.
SF: Tony Watson has set up Hunter Strickland in both of Strickland’s saves, and it really feels like, if Strickland were to falter or get hurt, that Watson would get the first crack at saving games, not Dyson, despite what Dyson did last season. That felt more like a desperation move to close games out, since the Giants’ bullpen was a complete mess last season.
Philadelphia seems like it should be yellow, or at least on the verge of yellow depending on how this week goes, since Kapler suggested that he wasn’t going with a single defined closer.
Boom, there goes Jansen again. DL soon?