Bullpen Report: April 17, 2018

Heading into Monday’s schedule, the Braves were the only team in the majors to not have recorded a save, but Arodys Vizcaino put an end to that shutout. In limiting the Phillies to a Nick Williams single in the top of the ninth inning, Vizcaino protected a 2-1 lead and gave himself his first save of 2018.

Much of Vizcaino’s save drought can be tied to the Braves having played in several lopsided contests early in the season. When he was finally presented with a save opportunity last Wednesday against the Nationals, he let a one-run lead evaporate by giving up a solo home run to Matt Adams. Even if Vizcaino had some save chances earlier on, he may not have fared well. He walked six batters over his first four appearances, which covered 3.2 innings, and he threw a paltry 52.4 percent of his pitches for strikes.

The hard-throwing 27-year-old has managed to rebound from his control issues in some of his more recent appearances. Monday’s outing was his fourth straight in which he did not issue a walk, and in two of his three most recent appearances, Vizcaino threw more than 50 percent of his pitches in the strike zone. However, those two appearances sandwiched a 10-pitch inning against the Cubs in which he threw only two pitches in the zone.

Vizcaino’s job seems perfectly safe right now, but he has had control issues in previous seasons. If you are looking to speculate on future closers, the Rays’ and Marlins’ situations look more ripe for change in the not-too-distant future. Still, Vizcaino isn’t totally invulnerable, and there are a pair of potential successors worth monitoring. A.J. Minter has yet to allow a run in 8.1 innings, but has walked five batters while striking out seven. A 26.9 percent O-Swing rate is likely to blame, but a) it’s early, b) at least he is throwing strikes and c) he is getting swinging strikes at a 13.3 percent rate.

Should Minter persist in failing to get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone, Dan Winkler could be a ninth- (or eighth-) inning option. Though he is merely average at inducing swinging strikes, Winkler has a career 34.7 percent strikeout rate, thanks in large part to a healthy 21.4 percent foul ball rate. Granted, Winkler’s career consists of just 26.1 innings, but he’s off to an auspicious start that bears watching.

Ryan Madson got his second save in a week on Monday night, shutting out the Mets in an 11-pitch ninth inning. Sean Doolittle had pitched in each of the two previous games, and not surprisingly, Madson has been manager Dave Martinez’s go-to guy when his regular closer is unavailable. Madson has not allowed a run in eight of his nine appearances, and he appears to be building on his 2017 bounceback season. He is throwing strikes at an astronomical 57.8 percent rate, getting whiffs at a 12.1 percent rate, and while he has fallen short of the 84.3 mph average exit velocity he allowed in 2017, Madson’s current mark of 86.2 mph (on 25 batted balls) is still impressive.

With Wade Davis performing well as the Rockies’ closer, Adam Ottavino has yet to record a save, yet he ranks third among relievers in Roto value on ESPN’s Player Rater. In fact, he is one spot ahead of Davis. Ottavino continued his blistering start to the season, pitching a perfect ninth inning with two strikeouts against the Pirates on Monday night. He trails only Tommy Kahnle in Z-Contact% with a 58.3 percent rate. Bear in mind that last season’s lowest rate among qualified relievers was 70.3 percent (belonging to Craig Kimbrel), so regression is coming. No one expects Ottavino to finish with a 64.7 percent strikeout rate or a 61.8 K-BB%, but he has dramatically improved his two-seamer, which he is employing much more frequently. According to Baseball Savant, he has bumped his average two-seamer spin rate up from 2155 rpm last season to 2324 rpm so far this year. Correspondingly, his K-rate on the pitch has soared from 11.4 to 64.7 percent.

Quick hits: Jeurys Familia blew his first save of the season when he allowed a two-run single to Wilmer Difo in the eighth inning against the Nationals…In previous installments of this column, I have discussed the successes of Kelvin Herrera and Blake Treinen, and they sit 1-2 on the reliever leaderboard for O-Swing%. Edwin Diaz, who is also off to an incredible start, ranks fifth. More surprising are the names in the third and fourth slots: Tyler Olson and Victor Arano.