Building a 2025 $9 NFBC Pitching Staff — A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed my $14 NFBC offense, filled with 14 hitters with an average auction value of $1 in late February when I published my imaginary roster. Today, let’s now flip over to reviewing my fake $9 pitching staff. I would imagine it’s easier to hit on some big wins from the crop of $1 pitchers than $1 hitters, so let’s see if that was the case this year. As a reminder, I rostered three true hits on the hitting side, composing just over 21% of my team. Did I do better on the pitching side?

Wow, this staff turned out quite well! It crushed its ATC projections in the two ratio categories and outperformed its wins projection, but just missed the strikeouts forecast due to injuries and a shocking role switch. Overall, this group was clearly more rewarding than on the hitting side, with five of nine I would count as clear wins. Let’s talk specific pitchers now.

José Soriano wasn’t a typical pick for me as he overperformed both his SIERA and xERA last year, plus recorded an underwhelming strikeout rate. This season, his expected ERA metrics remained pretty stable, but his luck ran out, as his ERA shot up above 4.00. His strikeout rate barely budged, while his walk rate jumped into double digits. Still, he continued to generate tons of grounders and he averages just over 97 MPH with his sinker. Though he was likely a negative in the majority of leagues, I’m still intrigued here, but I definitely want to see more strikeouts.

I wouldn’t normally roster a 36-year-old pitcher as part of a $1 grab bag, as I want upside, not veteran boringness. However, Merrill Kelly has been decent enough in recent seasons and showed a velocity jump early on during spring training. So I took the plunge for this exercise and was duly rewarded. His ERA rebounded from the 4.00+ mark last year, while he posted a career best WHIP. The underlying skills remained stable though and he overperformed both his SIERA and xERA, so I wouldn’t count on a repeat, but we don’t care about 2026 now! Oh, and about that early Spring velocity spike? Yeahhhhh, it didn’t last. He actually ended up averaging his lowest four-seam fastball velocity since 2021. Welp, sometimes a blind squirrel does find a nut.

My gosh, it was an absolute shock when it was announced heading into the season that Reid Detmers would open the year in the bullpen instead of the starting rotation. That crushed his value in all league formats as he also had little chance for saves. He didn’t even end up earning long relief innings and recorded just 63.2 like any normal reliever. His velocity did jump, fueling a strikeout rate increase, but an inflated .340 BABIP resulted in a near 4.00 ERA. That’s still better than his last two seasons, but I was hoping for significantly more value. His xERA is a bit worrisome as it suggests that some of that high BABIP is deserved and he hasn’t been as good as his SIERA suggests.

I was excited about Casey Mize this year when I learned he had visited Driveline Baseball before this season to improve his slider and that he planned to use his splitter more. Unfortunately, he actually ended up throwing his slider significantly less, plus, it rated even worse by both PitchingBot and Stuff+ compared to last year! He did throw his splitter at the highest rate of his career though, and while PitchingBot thought it remained an above average pitch, Stuff+ rated it just below average for the worst mark of his career. Overall, he still managed to increase his strikeout rate and post respectable skills, so although the process here wasn’t exactly what i had envisioned, this pick definitely worked out. I still feel like there should be more strikeouts coming, but if not, I’m not really interested at his expected price.

Edward Cabrera was the official “close your eyes and bet on the velocity and pray for improved control” candidate, and sure enough, it actually worked out! While his strikeout rate didn’t improve, he finally brought his walk rate into single digits, which was a massive improvement. That’s really all he needed to do in order to enjoy a true breakout. You’d think that with his velocity, perhaps there’s also a bit more strikeout rate upside. It’s always tough to count on a formerly wild pitcher who suddenly learned control to maintain that improved control, so he’ll be a risk at his breakout price next year.

Kris Bubic was so good as a reliever in 2024 that I had hoped he legitimately improved as a pitcher and he would carry over some of that improvement to his return to the rotation. Indeed, that’s exactly what happened, though he clearly needed heaps of good fortune to post a sub-3.00 ERA, namely a tiny 5.7% HR/FB rate. The underlying skills here were still solid, but I would say it’s representative of closer to a mid-to-high 3.00 ERA guy. His season ended early due to a shoulder injury, so he’ll be a risk next year and not someone to count on for more than 150 innings. That, combined with expected ERA regression, might make him a mediocre buy.

Man, Ryan Weathers, can you reach even 100 innings, let alone remain healthy for a full season?! He dealt with multiple injuries this year, limiting him to just eight starts and 38.1 innings. When he was on the mound, he was quite intriguing, as his velocity surged for a second straight season, resulting in the highest botStf and Stuff+ grades of his career. Somehow, he still posted just a 22.3% strikeout rate, but he looks primed for a breakout if he could actually stay healthy. He’ll continue to be the ideal cheap dart throw in shallower leagues.

I honestly had no idea what to expect from Lucas Giolito this year, and I’m sure no one else did. He missed all of the 2024 season after elbow surgery, which followed two straight seasons of ERAs approaching 5.00. But before that, he enjoyed three straight elite seasons with strikeout rates over 30% in two of them. At age 30, he didn’t seem too old to believe he could rebound if health cooperated. Sure enough, that rebound actually happened. However, the underlying skills suggest that the better results were mostly due to good fortune, rather than improved skills.

His strikeout rate slipped to its lowest since 2018, while he dramatically overperformed both his SIERA and xERA, both of which were at unrosterable levels. Both his botStf and Stuff+ grades finished at the lowest of his career, so he definitely showed diminished stuff. That makes it even more surprising that he was able to overperform his expected ERA metrics so drastically. It’s possible his stuff returns and his strikeout rate gets back into the mid-20% range at the very least next year. But if not, he’ll likely end up as a bust if fantasy owners value him like peak Giolito given the strong ERA.

Man, what a disappointing year for Max Meyer. He was showing improved stuff and velocity during spring training, which landed him on some sleeper lists. Then he had himself a fantastic Mar/Apr, finishing with a 3.18 ERA and 33.1% strikeout rate. I was so sure the breakout was upon us. Then it all fell apart in May, when he posted a bloated 5.88 ERA and just a 13.6% strikeout rate, before his season ended prematurely due to a hip injury that ultimately led to season-ending surgery. He did manage to maintain the increased velocity, but his PitchingBot and Stuff+ grades really disagreed on the quality of his stuff. If he proves his health during spring training next year, I think he deserves to be back on sleeper lists as another ideal cheap buy with real breakout potential.