Building a 2025 $14 NFBC Offense — A Review

One of the most enjoyable things I’ve been doing over the last couple of years is creating imaginary NFBC teams based on their average auction values (AAV). It’s a fun way to identify potentially undervalued players since I’m using actual market values and not just speculating. Today, let’s review my $14 NFBC offense, which is comprised of, you guessed it, only players with an AAV of $1.

As is often the case with these exercises, my team performed significantly worse in the counting stats compared to their ATC projections at the time of publication (late February). That’s because injuries always strike and poor performances from players already considered borderline starters cut their playing time. However, there were some hits here at least! Let’s discuss the hitters.

After solid 2022 and 2023 offensive campaigns, Jonah Heim has stopped hitting, with his wOBA falling well below .300. While he came close to matching his projection, this wasn’t exactly the $1 catcher pick you wanted. The underlying skills here are perfectly decent, but his BABIP has been awful for the majority of his career, while his HR/FB rate needs to return to double digits.

Yikes, I was bullish on Jacob Stallings solely because he was on the Rockies, but he ended up recording just 93 PAs there before joining the Orioles. His offense collapsed for both teams and he was ultimately released, after just 129 PAs.

I thought Josh Bell’s new park would be a positive for his HR/FB rate, and indeed, it was. Sadly, he didn’t contribute anywhere else thanks to a poor supporting cast and by far the lowest BABIP of his career. He actually posted the second highest xwOBA of his career, so this could have been a superb season, but it just didn’t happen. Perhaps the veteran ends up undervalued in NL-Only leagues next year, but at age 33, I’m not holding my breath.

My gosh was this a disaster of a season for Jeimer Candelario. He endured an extended slump to open the season, and then hit the IL for nearly two months. Once he returned, he was ultimately released before being picked up by the Yankees. In the end, he recorded just 91 PAs and his career as a starter may now be over.

Injury limited Matt Vierling to just 100 PAs, resulting in a lost year for the 28-year-old. With an above average HardHit% and maxEV, I see some power upside here, as it’s the low Barrel% that has held him back. I don’t know if he’ll get another chance as a starter, but he could be undervalued in AL-Only leagues if he does.

Between injury and poor performance, Michael Massey accumulated just 277 PAs. He delivered little for fantasy owners when in the lineup, as his power completely evaporated. Since he owns limited speed, he needs to contribute in home runs to earn any fantasy value whatsoever at a middle infield spot. Since he serves on the strong side of a platoon when he’s healthy, that caps his upside as well.

Jacob Wilson officially qualifies as my team’s first hit! He most certainly obliterated all expectations this year, contributing a touch across the board, along with an elite batting average. Wilson makes extraordinary contact, posting the fourth lowest SwStk% among 145 qualified hitters, resulting in the second lowest strikeout rate among the same group. It allowed him to post the third highest batting average in baseball, despite a not-super-inflated .317 BABIP.

Most surprising this year was his power. His Statcast metrics were poor, but he still managed a 10.5% HR/FB rate and .134 ISO. That’s partly because he posted a higher than league average rate of pulled fly balls. I still wouldn’t bet on this profile recording another double digit HR/FB rate, but it actually doesn’t really matter whether he hits 13 home runs or 10 home runs since his value is almost entirely driven by his batting average. That’s the kind of profile I typically avoid since some poor fortune could quickly make him a zero-category contributor.

We knew heading into the season that Hyeseong Kim wasn’t assured a starting job. But we figured he’d play enough at multiple positions to accrue fantasy value, maybe even in shallow mixed leagues. That didn’t happen. Instead, he recorded just 170 PAs with the Dodgers, though those PAs were quite productive. Over 600 PAs, he paced for 11 home runs and 46 steals, which would have earned pretty good value in all formats. He did strike out far too often and rarely walked, which is something to consider if he is handed a full-time job, while his Statcast metrics were extremely weak, suggesting limited power potential. His .259 xwOBA was significantly below his actual wOBA, so he might simply not be good enough to be a productive Major Leaguer. Another possibility is 170 PAs was too small a sample size and with additional experience, whether in the minors or Majors, he’ll regain most of his KBO form.

Trevor Larnach almost exactly hit his ATC projections, which probably makes him the perfect example of a $1 or replacement player. Unlike many others, he played all season and delivered exactly as expected. That he was able to maintain his 2024 much improved strikeout rate was a good sign and resulted in a more palatable batting average. His power took a hit this year as his Barrel% fell into single digits, hitting a career low. I would bet on a rebound next season, as his other Statcast metrics remained strong.

Oy vey, MJ Melendez killed my dreams in multiple leagues and articles! He was shockingly demoted to the minors in mid-April after a poor start and was eventually recalled again in mid-July, but only lasted until the end of the month. He wasn’t exactly demanding another recall with his Triple-A play, so with poor outfield defense, I don’t expect him to get another starting opportunity, at least with the Royals.

Finally we get to my second hit, Sal Frelick! I was intrigued by his offseason in which he apparently added 25 pounds of muscle, as I thought he could enjoy a power breakout. That kind of did happen, though the breakout wasn’t exactly a big one, as he still only posted a 7.8% HR/FB rate and .117 ISO. Still, that was far better than his first full season in 2024 when those marks couldn’t be seen without a microscope. To go along with the newfound power, he continued to steal bases, resulting in him just missing going 10/20. He also raised his batting average, thanks to the combination of a slightly improved strikeout rate and BABIP, plus the additional home runs. Combined with his defense, he was a pretty valuable player, though his xwOBA suggests much of the offense was a fluke.

Jordan Beck makes the second hit in a row. As you can see, I’m a sucker for any Rockies hitter who might earn substantial playing time. Beck struck out often, and his power output was disappointing, but he did enough across the board did deliver a profit. A poor surrounding cast resulted in just 53 RBI, which cut into his value, and he scored just 62 runs, despite his speed. That tells you more about the poor Rockies offense than how Beck performed this season. I think there’s power upside here so I think he might still be a good buy in 2026.

After an insane 158 PAs in 2024, I was really curious how Pavin Smith would perform in a likely strong side platoon role this year. Naturally, he got hurt, limiting him to just 288 PAs. But he hit pretty well when healthy, posting his second highest wOBA and ISO. The power did regress, but it remained above pre-2024 levels and he again posted a double digit Barrel%. The one concern here is his strikeout rate skyrocketed over 30%, which is pretty crazy for a guy who came into the season with just a 20.5% mark for his career. He’ll be an interesting deep league choice next year if he win a strong side platoon role.

Even though it’s risky to count on a power hitter returning from shoulder surgery, I still ended up rostering Daulton Varsho here due to the upside, which is rare to find at $1. He ended up missing far more time than expected and recorded just 271 PAs as a result. But man was he productive in that time. Given 550 PAs, he paced for 41 home runs, 87 runs scored, and 112 RBI. His HR/FB rate was nearly double last year and set a new career high, as his Barrel% surged to the mid-teens, an elite rate. It’s too bad he stopped stealing bases and he remains terrible at BABIP. An extreme fly ball tendency really boosts his home run output, but I wouldn’t expect another 20%+ HR/FB rate as I doubt he repeats that Barrel%.

This exercise is always a reminder how hard it is to hit on gems at $1. Most of them have serious playing time risk, so if they slump early, they could find themselves either on the bench or at Triple-A. Of course, sometimes it does work out and you end up with a really solid player for a minimum price, which could help you glide toward a first place finish.