Building a 2025 $14 NFBC Offense

Auction day is one of my favorite days of the year. So what to do when you love auctioning, but your first event of the year isn’t for another week and a half? Fake buy players from auctions that did actually take place! For fun, I decided to check out the NFBC average auction values and build a standard 14-player offense for $14. That’s right, every player I selected had to come with an average auction value of just a buck. Imagine the pitching staff you could assemble with the $246 you would have remaining!

Since we’re still in February and spring training just began recently, there’s only data for 21 auctions. That’s already a small sample, so I don’t have the luxury of filtering for a recent time period to ensure super early auctions are excluded.

There is only a total of 80 hitters with an AAV of $1, so that was my pool to choose from. Note that a whopping 21 of the 80 hitters were only bought in one auction, so it’s possible that additional auctions rostering those names could push the average higher than a buck. And now, the most awesome collection of dollar players you’ll ever find…

There were 17 catchers to choose from and it was difficult not getting nauseous looking at the names. As you could imagine, these aren’t guys expected to get a whole lot of playing time. Jonah Heim has recorded around 500 PAs the last two seasons, but is only projected for 388 this year after the addition of Kyle Higashioka. Since the forecast is for so many fewer PAs than he’s recorded recently, the upside is there to exceed his projection and he’s clearly the best of the lot at $1.

I really went down the list of projected value when choosing Jacob Stallings, but I have a soft spot for any Rockies starting hitter. Stallings should exceed his just-under 300 PA projection, and he was quite solid last year, even while hitting better on the road than at Coors! He makes for a pretty good second catcher target in deep leagues.

Moving to the corners, I discussed Josh Bell last month after he signed with the Nationals. It’s pretty clear from the park factors that the move was a positive, at least compared to if he had stayed with the Diamondbacks, as his new park is significantly better for left-handed home runs. I’m not particularly enthused about either Jeimer Candelario or Matt Vierling. However, the pickings were slim, and both have decent enough skills and fairly safe playing time to contribute some power and a handful of stolen bases. While I preferred more upside, the options didn’t grant me such potential choices.

Next up are the middle infielders where there’s a bit more excitement. Michael Massey dealt with injury last year, but in about half a season dramatically reduced his strikeout rate while pumping up his ISO. That’s an exciting combination as often times hitters have to choose between contact and power, as opposed to hitting for both. It would be nice if he ran a bit more as you could end up with ultimate upside of 20/10 for very cheap.

Jacob Wilson윌슨 was recalled to make his MLB debut in mid-July, but immediately suffered a strained hamstring and didn’t return until late August. The team’s second best prospect and 52nd best overall, he makes fantastic contact and has somehow managed mid-teen HR/FB rates and .200+ ISO marks despite low HardHit% and maxEV marks. I’m not counting on the power being sustained, and he isn’t much of a basestealer, so he’s mostly a batting average play.

Hyeseong Kim 김혜성 signed with the Dodgers out of Korea and figures to play at all the positions up the middle. It could make him a super, duper utility guy and earn him enough PAs to accrue value in deeper leagues. He made excellent contact in Korea and while he hasn’t shown much power, he has swiped at least 25 bases in each of the past four season, peaking at 46 back in 2021. That speed alone should make him appealing.

Let’s move to the outfield! During snake drafts, there always seems to be a ton of outfielders. So you fade them early thinking you can fill your slots with solid names later. Instead, you end up waiting too long and then panic because all that’s left are the names I’ve just rostered above for a buck.

Trevor Larnach posted a 45.1% HardHit% and 113.2 MPH maxEV with a Barrel% just into double digits. He’s basically done this now for the past three seasons, though the sample sizes have been small. Yet, his HR/FB rate hasn’t exceeded 15%. It suggests some upside there and although he’ll likely be on the strong side of a platoon, 20 homers is easily within reach. We just have to hope his drastically improved strikeout rate sticks.

I’m already buying MJ Melendez’s “best shape of his life” Kool-Aid. Apparently, he overhauled his swing during the offseason, which is the optimism I need to read about after last season’s disappointing .292 wOBA. With strong HardHit% and maxEV marks, plus a fly ball tendency, he should easily be clearing 20 homers, especially if this new swing helps him unlock his potential.

It’s hard to find many $1 hitters with true upside, but Sal Frelick is another “best shape of his life” type, who added 25 pounds of muscle since last season. He already makes excellent contact, resulting in at least a neutral batting average at worst. He also swiped 18 bases last year at a good success rate so he’s got the speed too. But with just two home runs and a sad .076 ISO, he’s missing the power. His Statcast metrics are extremely weak, so perhaps the added muscle could push him into double digit home runs. A 10/20 season would make him quite valuable and he’ll cost nothing to speculate.

I told you I love Rockies hitters (even though it was a nightmare trying to figure out who was starting in any given game last season), and Jordan Beck is currently leading the pack to start in right field this year. Of course, the Rockies had nine different hitters who recorded PAs as a right-fielder, so going into the season as the starter doesn’t mean a whole lot. That said, Beck has posted .200+ ISO marks, double digit walk rates, a high LD%, and shown a willingness to steal bases in the minors. The combination of power and speed is intriguing as he plays half his games at Coors, so I’m interested for as long as he’s considered the favorite to start.

The projections are calling for fewer than 400 PAs for Pavin Smith, but you have to consider the possibility that last year’s tiny sample breakout was partially for real. All of a sudden, his Statcast metrics improved and his Barrel% doubled, en route to a 22% HR/FB rate and .277 ISO. Was it a small sample fluke or a true breakout for the 28-year-old? He does own solid plate discipline skills as well, so this isn’t a profile that looks like it’ll turn right back into a pumpkin. I would speculate here at this price considering there’s little downside.

It was the second straight poor offensive season for Daulton Varsho, and yet he still delivered some for fantasy owners with his power and speed. He’s now coming off shoulder surgery and might not be ready for the start of the season. However, the upside far surpasses the other $1 options that are left to stick in the Utility slot. He’s become an extreme flyball hitter, which has taken a toll on his BABIP and batting average, but helped keep his home run total respectable despite a HR/FB rate that has sat in the low double digits for two straight seasons. I’m probably out on a real auction price, but for a buck, it’s hard to pass up.