Bryce Harper, #2 Overall Fantasy Player

Bryce Harper finally did it. It was over five years ago when he was drafted #1 overall by the Nationals. This past season, the 22-year-old became the top fantasy player with one of the best seasons ever. He will not even be 25 next season, so the only direction he can is up, right? Actually, it’s better to tap the brakes on the Harper love, especially when it comes to his power.

Let’s start with a few facts on Harper everyone should know:

1. He is young.
2. He was probably the most hyped hitting prospect ever.
3. He had a great 2015 season.

In an early industry draft, Harper was taken #1 overall. Even with the above facts, I just can’t take him #1 for two reasons.

Reason #1: Mike Trout

I just can’t see myself putting him over Trout. We can’t just expect Harper to be the league’s best player next season. He has performed like this once, not four years in a row like Trout has. We don’t have to belittle what Harper has done — he is one of 19 players (*) to post a wRC+ of 115 or higher in his age 20 to 22-year-old seasons (of which Trout is also one). Now if the threshold is moved up to 160 wRC+, only two players exist, Trout and Cobb. An injury slowed down Trout a bit in 2015 (age 23 season), but he still posted a 172 wRC+. It seems people are already getting prospect fatigue with Trout.

While projections aren’t everything, Steamer has them tied in home run talent, but Trout holds the batting average and stolen base advantage. Unless you only look at 2015, I see no way you can reasonably rank Harper higher than Trout.

Reason #2: I don’t buy Harper’s power uptick

Right now, I see Harper fans eyeing his 42 home runs from last season and are hoping for more. The 35 he is projected by Steamer might not even be acceptable for most owners. The problem is that among the 2015 elite home run hitters, he showed some of the worst power. I went and compared him to the other top 11 home run hitters (between 37 and 47 home runs). Harper was near the bottom of almost every batted ball measurement. Taking data from Baseball Savant, ESPN Home Run Tracker, and Baseball Heat Maps, I got an idea where Harper ranked among the top home run hitters. Here are the stats:

Stat:
Avg – MPH: Average batted ball velocity of all recorded batted balls
Avg – FB/LD MPH: Average batted ball velocity of all flyball and line drives
HR+FB Distance: Average distance of all flyball and home runs
ND%: Percentage of home runs which were no doubters
JE%+L%: Percentage of home runs which were just enough or lucky
Avg HR Dist: Average HR ball distance

Harper never ranked in the top half of any of the categories with his best showing in HR+FB dist with an 8th place finish. The most damning data is in the last three categories on his home runs. His average home run distance (381 ft) was 17 less feet than the next player. Looking over the 2015 average home run distances, his distance ranks near Derek Norris, Ender Inciarte, Juan Lagares and Carlos Beltran.

Right now the top four picks for me are a definite Trout then Harper, then Goldy, then Kershaw, then a mess of a dozen or so players. I could see the debate continue with Harper vs. Trout. The debate will increase emotions and could be good drama. I think it is time to move on to rest of the draft and figure out how to rank the next dozen or so players. With talent seemingly so even, drafts may be won or lost in the 2nd or 3rd round. Concentrate your time worrying about those picks instead of Harper vs. Trout.

 

 

* Mike Tiernan, John McGraw, Sherry Magee, Ty Cobb, Stuffy McInnis, Rogers Hornsby, Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, Vada Pinson, Bob Horner, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout,