Brian McCann: Disappointingly Decent

I had big hopes for Brian McCann this season. He moved from a pitcher friendly stadium in Atlanta to arguably the best hitting venue for lefties in all of baseball (I’m willfully ignoring Coors Field…). He often spends time on the disabled list, but there was reason to hope a smattering of starts in the designated hitter role would keep him healthy AND lead to a career best in plate appearances.

Hope fades. What we received was a typical 538 plate appearance season. His 23 home runs, 75 RBI, and 57 runs were among the best at the position. Sure, I thought a 30 home run, 100 RBI season was in the offing, but reality still provided the second most home runs and third most RBI from a catcher. The real disappointment was batting average. His .232 mark hurt. It came with a low .231 BABIP, but that figure probably isn’t unlucky. Per FantasyPros, McCann’s average cost was $12. I thought he had a shot at $25 value this season, and he actually returned $8 according to Col. Sanders. In short, he was useful but not dynamic. We could end the analysis there. We really could.

The most interesting thing about McCann is that .231 BABIP. We know a couple things about BABIP’s. They’re affected by batted ball type, quality of contact, and direction of contact – specifically the predictability of direction. McCann’s batted ball profile was fine. His 11.1 percent infield fly rate is a tad high, but not unsightly.

Quality of contact is difficult to find. I like to use average fly ball distance as a proxy for quality of contact. It’s a bad proxy – most proxies are, but we need something. McCann declined from 293 feet per fly ball in 2013 to 280 feet this season. A bunch of really good hitters averaged 280 feet – Buster Posey, Alex Gordon, and Hanley Ramirez to name a few. B.J. Upton, Didi Gregorius, and Andrelton Simmons also appear here.

You probably know where I’m leading you. Here’s a picture.

McCann Spray

Note the blob of green. Note what Jeff Zimmerman said early in the season.

Brian McCann is getting shifted quite a bit more in the AL East than he did in the NL East. He hit into the shift 143 times all of last season. So far this season, he has hit into 55 of them. The effects are about the same on his stats. The difference between his no-shift and shifted BABIP was 120 points in 2013. This season, it is 121 points (.375 vs .254).

Note also this damning list from Mike Petriello.

Much has been made of McCann and his issues facing the shift, and that’s true to an extent. Just look at the list of the hitters with the worst batting averages on grounders:

5) David Ortiz, .153
4) McCann, .145
3) Ryan Howard, .143
2) Mark Teixeira, .138
1) Mike Moustakas, .111

Basically, Brian McCann is a low BABIP hitter. Until he learns to spray the ball to all fields or stop hitting any grounders, he’ll remain a low BABIP hitter. This season should teach us to correct our expectations of McCann, but we shouldn’t discard him. He’s still a mid-lineup hitter who spends half his time at Yankee Stadium. The home run park factor there is 128 (read 28 percent above neutral). He can hit home runs. He’ll have RBI opportunities. At a position where maybe four or five players offer more than two categories of value, McCann still has a place.

A bounce back season could happen, although I think you have to be a little crazy to hang your hat on one. His walk rate, usually around 10 percent, plummeted to six percent. If he can find his way on base more often, it will give him a chance to score a few more runs. Maybe he’ll rediscover his power. Or, maybe the walk rate will continue a five season downward trend while his power continues to age. The days of elite McCann are over – we’re left looking at a $2 to $10 asset.





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Patrick
9 years ago

I was reading the end of season catcher rankings and I was actually surprised to see McCann 6th. Those stats seem very repeatable.