Brandon Belt is Free, And On the Giants

The #FreeBrandonBelt hashtag has made it’s way around the internets. Perhaps it was the way he tore up the minor leagues. Or the way he mashed his way through the Arizona Fall League (.372/.427/.616 in an offense-friendly league). Maybe it was the fact that he was a converted college pitcher new to being a slugger. Could have been the alliteration. Or the obvious athleticism.

Whatever the reason(s), he’ buckled in and ready to go and there’s a general frivolity in the air surrounding the Giants’ decision to give Brandon Belt the opening day assignment at first base. What should fantasy owners expect of the strapping young lad?

First, let’s tackle the issue of opportunity. Obviously, he’s got a chance, but how strong of a chance is it? The decision was at least partially brought on by the calf injury to Cody Ross, so is it a temporary one? That doesn’t make much sense in the end. If the team thought Belt wasn’t quite ready, they wouldn’t rush their top prospect to the major leagues in order to fill a temporary hole. They’d just move Mark DeRosa over to first, as they did in their last spring training game, and put Aubrey Huff in the outfield, as they will opening day. Or just play DeRosa, their backup shortstop (cough!) in the outfield. They’d figure something out.

No, this move smacks of a bonafide chance. Perhaps the Giants realized that a good portion of their offense might regress this year, and that an infusion of youth would help. What could Belt give his intrepid fantasy owners this year?

ZiPs says a .266 batting average with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 600 PAs, but obviously that’s not the whole story. For one, despite running through four different leagues last year (and therefore four different run environments and four different home parks), his lowest ISO was .244. That’s excellent, and so it’s fair to hope for more than ZiP’s pessimistic/realstic .174 ISO. That his ISO also increased as he advanced in levels bodes well for optimism, even with a tough home park in the major leagues.

Second, don’t expect those stolen bases. Yes, he stole 18 in high-A ball, but that made up the bulk of his 23 stolen bases last year. While his power grew, he stole fewer bases as he advanced (two in 200+ PAs in Double-A). Last, a scout at the Arizona Fall League believed that Belt stole those bases ‘just because he could.’ In other words, Belt was so athletic, and his competition so inferior, that he decided to have some fun. Look at the video linked above and you see a young athletic slugger, not so much a power/speed combo at first base. Expect some stolen bases, but not close to 20.

So, even with optimism and hope in hand, we must use clear eyes when it comes to our fantasy teams. This Belt is best used to cinch up sagging corner infield pants in deeper leagues, or as a final bench spot in mixed leagues with bigger rosters. He may not have the best batting average, and take a look at his minor league equivalencies before you get too excited about his power. Of course, those are based on what those numbers ‘normally’ mean – he still has the chance to be extraordinary.