Brandon Belt as Joey Votto

As we have learned more about what drives hitter BABIP in recent years, we have talked a lot about batted ball type distribution. Joey Votto is always the example of what the ideal profile looks like for posting an inflated BABIP. It’s not necessarily the profile that leads to the highest wOBA (that’s more an individual ideal), but what would typically result in the highest rate of balls in play falling for hits.

For those of you who are still not yet aware of Votto’s awesomeness at hitting a baseball, this is a summary of some of his most important metrics that affect BABIP (career rates):

So let’s recap — Votto hits tons of line drives, avoids the pop-up like it’s the plague, literally sprays the balls around the entire field with very similar batted ball direction rates, and rarely hits the ball softly. It’s a profile to drool over. But this article isn’t about Votto. It’s about the new Votto, Brandon Belt. Let’s check out his rates this year and then compare them to Votto’s career marks above:

I am actually amazed at how strikingly similar these two profiles look. Belt wasn’t totally Votto-like in previous seasons, though there were some seeds planted. This year, additional seeds have not just been planted, but also fully sprouted. It’s no wonder, then, that Belt’s BABIP sits at a spiffy .346. Votto’s career BABIP?.354. And his current mark is .344.

So how is Belt doing his best Votto impression? Well, to start, his O-Swing% has improved and currently sits at a career low. Not swinging at pitches outside the zone is a skill perfected by Votto. He leads baseball with the lowest mark. Belt is nowhere near as skilled at laying off pitches outside the zone, but improvement is improvement. While he’s letting those pitches go, he’s swinging at pitches inside the zone more than ever. It’s not a huge jump, but noteworthy. So it sounds pretty simple — swing less at bad pitches (or those more difficult to hit squarely) and more at good pitches that are probably easier to make quality contact with.

Belt has power, Votto has power. In fact, the two are within just four feet of each other in average batted ball distance (Votto is higher). And although Votto’s HR/FB rate is higher, Belt has posted a mark this season in the mid-teens despite playing in a home park that severely suppressed left-handed home run power. Its 84 LHH HR park factor last year was lowest in baseball. So it’s no surprise then that Belt has posted a pathetic 4.7% HR/FB rate at home this year (versus a robust 24.5% mark in away games) and sports a home mark less than half his away mark during his career. So it would probably be fair to say that the two possess very similar levels of power.

The biggest difference between the two is obvious. Belt swings and misses often, leading to a mid-20% strikeout rate, while Votto swings and misses nearly half as often and only strikes out in the high teens due to how patient he is at the dish. And that last part is the final obvious difference. Belt swings more often than the average hitter, which has resulted in marginally above average walk rates. Votto, on the other hand, has swung at the third lowest rate of pitches in baseball this year, and his walk rate is gargantuan as usual.

So clearly Belt has some work to do on his walk and strikeout rates to truly become Votto. But in terms of everything else, Belt is as Vottoian as one could get without being the the man himself.