Brandon Beachy and the Braves’ Rotation
Before Brandon Beachy had been pushed back with a bit of elbow soreness after his final rehab start, I posted my thoughts at Talking Chop on how the Braves would manage their rotation with the impending return of one of their best starting pitchers.
Until yesterday, the Braves had only used their original five starting pitchers that they started the year with. And even then, they only used Alex Wood because they were playing six games in five days. All six starters are worthwhile to own in fantasy if they are in the rotation, so anyone who owns these guys needs to be paying attention to this situation.
At this point, there is no chance that Mike Minor is removed from the rotation unless he gets injured. He is the only guy I would say with 100 percent certainty is safe. Tim Hudson is probably the next safest considering how long his tenure with the Braves has been. Paul Maholm is an impending free agent but has been pretty much exactly the guy they were trying to trade for last season when they acquired him – a standard middle of the rotation arm with a mid 3’s ERA. Kris Medlen has a 2.96 ERA but does have previous bullpen experience and the Braves are missing their top two set up men. Lastly, Julio Teheran has had a very impressive rookie year that has seen his command improve dramatically.
There is a difficult decision to be made here one way or the other. My mindset the whole year was that it would figure itself out by the time Beachy was ready, that someone would get hurt or pitch poor enough to deserve to be removed from the rotation. Fortunately for the Braves this has not happened, but it creates a good amount if uncertainty for fantasy owners. Unfortunately, even as someone who follows the team as closely as I do, it is difficult to pinpoint how the Braves plan to act.
In terms of the likelihood of being removed from the rotation I would say it is currently Teheran > Medlen > Maholm > Hudson > Minor. There is also, and it is actually becoming increasingly possible in my opinion, a chance that Beachy is inserted into the bullpen at the outset of the season. There is reason to be concerned if you own Teheran, Medlen, or Beachy. Considering Medlen’s peripherals and his ERA, it is not a bad time to try and move him if the prospective owner expects him to remain in the rotation. The same could be true for Teheran, but only in single season leagues. I wish I had more insight, but this is one of the tougher decisions the team will face all year and they have not shown their hand thus far.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
Concerning Medlen’s peripherals, they’ve improved dramatically since April, so if they do leave him in the rotation, I wouldn’t necessarily expect as much regression as his full season stats (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) would suggest.
He has like a forty to two K to BB over his last X starts. People are ridiculous
Of course after his recent set-back there’s little guarantee Beachy even pushes for a rotation spot until August or September.
You don’t move the starter with the best ERA over the past two seasons to the pen. Full stop.
I own Teheran and was offered Jered Weaver for him. I cannot make my mind up! This bullpen stuff is why.
We discussed this on today’s The Sleeper and the Bust.
I’d keep Teheran, personally…I’m scared of Weaver’s velocity and overall performances.
Keep Teheran. Jered Weaver isn’t a worthwhile pitcher to get for him.
How can you pass on weaver?? Even in dynasty leagues.
Because this: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jered-weavers-declining-skills/
In a dynasty I would definitely pass on Weaver-for-Teheran.
Even before the setback I thought sending Beachy to the minors would be the smartest thing. The Braves are and will be pushing for a top playoff seed, they certainly don’t need a starter working off the rust that comes with TJ recovery. While he might be their best starter, it’s important to remember that it will take time to get back to his full form, which only covers 41 career starts.
+1
I somehow flipped Medlin for H. Kendrick. I also had Beachy, but had to dump him because Peavy, Tulo and Cobb all went on the DL within 3 weeks.
I wouldn’t say Medlen for Kendrick is a good trade on your part, I was very worried early on about his peripherals but he’s been electric over his last few starts, he has seemingly fixed his walk issue that was troubling him early on.
Isn’t the obvious solution to put Beachy himself in the pen?
Trade Hudson. He is the weakest link in the staff.
Hudson still has decent peripherals and is a hometown favorite being from Georgia and slogging through the couple of crappy years before they turned it around. There’s no way he’ll be traded. Plus the Braves likely want to resign him–he’ll be a good fourth or fifth starter for another couple years and will likely return to Atlanta cheaper than anywhere else.
Trading Maholm or Teheran is the more obvious choice if you’re going to make a deal. Maholm’s not as proven as Hudson, has had a good run the past year, and will likely get a bit more in a trade (both players are FA after this year, and Maholm will cost whoever gets him a few mil less). I’m still not sold on Teheran, and his trade value is pretty high at the moment. I just don’t see him keeping up a 1.7 BB/9.
Putting Medlen back in the bullpen seems like a mistake–it’s hard to tell how guys will react to being yanked around from the bullpen to rotation, and Medlen has already switched a couple times. Let him keep going while he’s going strong.
What do you guys think about gio for masterson or is that apples for apples?
Gio all day
ill take gio and NL everyday.
Gio over Mastersons inconsistency the past three seasons, no doubt. Then again, despite the small chance of it happening, fifty or 100 games suspend is a lot of points. Either way, I see Teheran or Medlen getting traded or moved to the pen as soon as one of em struggles while Beachy gets his strength. A few typos in the fourth paragraph, but good stream of consciousness article, coming from a Rangers fan no less. As for the trades mentioned…
Hudson being moved, no, like Bill says the Braves are traditional organization and home state boys will always remain a priority, they sell tickets and jerseys and separate the men from the boys (Braves from the Rays)
Medlen for Kendrick, no, just no
Teheran for Jered Weaver, no, declining Weaver, its a young mans game gentlemen.
Beachy back mid-to-late August, I’ve been stashing him in a dynasty since September last season, I feel like its almost prom night and I’m going to lose my virginity, officially. Exciting times… What about some other major arms eying to work their way back in
Carpenter, Feliz, Lewis
Why is this situation different from what the Braves did so successfully with Medlen’s return from surgery? Is it simply Beachy’s former success as a starter? Something about the makeup of the two pitchers that makes it unlikely that Beachy would succeed/progress in the pen in the way Medlen did?
You never worry about a glut of good starters from an organizational standpoint, but my concern is that Teheran’s psychic fragility. The team showed a lot of faith in his struggles and now that that’s paying off, I think they think (and they might be right about this) that shunting him to the pen may be playing with fire. It’s clearly done wonders for the whole staff knowing this situation is looming, everyone is pitching well, but so why not prolong that by giving Beachy a month in the pen? It’s not like the guys down there couldn’t use the rest and it gives the organization/situation time to work itself out through either trade/performance fall-off/injury…especially when they’ve had proven recent success in following that template [medlen].
But it sounds like the team’s not considering it. Why?
I expect it’ll be mid-July to early august before Beachy is ready but if he comes around sooner it would set up an intriguing trade match up between the Braves and Rangers. The Rangers could really use Teheran asap and the Braves are desperate for a leadoff bat like Profar. It’ll likely take a package to do it but it’d be a potential boon for both teams given their relative situations (especially if Lewis, Harrison and Feliz fall further into the “back too late to help” category). Profar could easily be in the lineup everyday shifting between 2nd and 3rd base for the Braves.
What do you guys think about dealing Leake for Medlen? I would throw in a closer prospect like Tazawa or Putz. Leake doesnt appear to be getting lucky at all but his upcoming schedule is not looking good, although they are mostly away. I feel like i should sell high soon.
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