Brad Miller Now Likes Striking Out

by
November 6, 2014

I made a decision while trying to win a championship last season which I didn’t regret at the time, but now must deal with. I traded for Brad Miller. I didn’t want him. He was a throw in for a trade with bigger pieces, but he has a long guaranteed contract the other owner gave him. Coming into 2014, he looked to be a good middle infield option with both second base and shortstop eligibility. Now, he just gives his 2014 owners nightmarish flashbacks. It is not even clear if he will play much in 2015. I am going to see if there is any possible chance for non-dead cat bounce or if he belongs on the floor.

Generally, he was the same player in several categories:

Stat: 2013, 2014
ISO: .154, .144
HR/FB: 10%, 10%
BB%: 7%, 8%
SB: 5, 4

Power, speed and walks seemed fine.

The big issue with 2014 was his higher strikeout rate (15% to 23%) and lower BABIP (.294 to .268). The two combined to lower his AVG from .265 to .221. Most Brad Miller owners would have loved a .221 AVG. Instead they remember April (.174 AVG) and May (.136 AVG) when he was struggling horribly. They probably dropped him then. Over the next four months, he hit .265 which is identical to his 2013 AVG. The problem with the higher AVG, it was all BABIP driven. Here are his 2014 K% and BABIP by month:

Month: K%, BABIP
April: 29%, .211
May: 22%, .184
June: 22%, .339
July: 19%, .217
Aug: 21%, .333
Sep: 24%, .389

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His BABIP jumps around by 180 points, but his K% is near 23%. There looked to be some improvement in his strikeouts from April to July, but then the value got worse over the last two months.

The cause for the strikeout increase from 2013 to 2014 was two fold. He was not swinging at as many pitches in the strike zone (70% to 66%). Additionally when he did swing, he contact rate dropped (83% to 79%). Pitchers moved away from throwing him fastballs (60% to 56%) and he saw a small jump in breaking pitches (curve +1% point, slider, +2% points, change +3% points). Besides more breaking pitches, the mix of fastballs changed from 36% to 31% with four-seamer (flyball inducing) and 16% to 18% for 2-seamers (groundball inducing). So far in his career, he has struggled against groundball pitchers (.213/.287/.309) compared to flyball pitchers (.259/.306/.417).

Looking forward to 2015, I am not as optimistic as the Steamer projections which have him at a .252 AVG, 19% K, .291 BABIP, 12 HR, 8 SB in 504 PA. The home runs and stolen bases I can buy into with the number of plate appearances (which could go down if he struggles). I don’t see the AVG being that high because I won’t count on his K% dropping under 20%. I would put his average near .240. Pitchers will just continue attacking him with any pitch but a four-seam fastball. Until he shows signs of improvement, he will struggle.

In my situation with Miller, I am going to try to move him. It is going to be rough. Since it is an AL only league, I can hope for a hot month or two from him to start the season and move him then. Hopefully, he will be wanted by someone as a warm body. In a 12- or 20-team leagues, he should not be counted on as an everyday player with the new higher strikeout rate. If the strikeouts drop, he may become useful, but I wouldn’t count on it and I am not.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Andy
11 years ago

He really turned it around at the end of the year, though. It maybe nothing but it was enough to make me rethink him. He may have been trying to play hurt or something.

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