Brad Johnson’s 10 Deceptively Not-Bold Predictions
It’s not quite Bold Prediction season, but we’re starting to close in on it. After all these years of boldly predicting, I’ve picked up a few hacks. I’ll never jam them past you readers – you’re always sharpening the “not bold” knives – but I can usually squeeze through a few open-ended scenarios.
Today, I’ll share 10 which might look bold at first blush but actually are pretty tame. I expect at least a 50% win-rate on these.
These are not my 10 Bold Predictions.
1. If Kyle Tucker Plays 150 Games, He Will Outperform Luis Robert
Tucker and Robert are similar players. They project to combine tantalizing power and speed while perhaps featuring a little too much swing-and-miss to be true superstars. The physical talent is there, we’ll just have to see how it shakes out. Tucker has shown more signs of emergent plate discipline, but he’s trapped behind Josh Reddick on a Dusty Baker-led club. Robert has an everyday role sewn up, but might struggle to cross a .300 OBP.
The trick here is in the 150 games. For Tucker to win a regular role and retain it with this Houston organization (trash cans or not), he’ll have to perform at a very high level. And if he’s performed at a high level, then odds are he outkicked Robert. Plausible outcomes for this pair range from Fernando Tatis Jr. to Lewis Brinson with Michael Taylor and Byron Buxton also on the comp list.
2. If Vince Velasquez Pitches 150 Innings, He Will Pull A Zack Wheeler
This is the pitcher version of #1. For Velasquez to get this kind of action – including a career high in innings – he’ll have to finally turn his tantalizing 9.80 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, and 10.9 SwStr% into consistently positive outcomes. VV is entering his age 28 season. It’s not too late for a breakout. I mention Wheeler because he spontaneously added velocity and tightened up his command at age 28. However, injuries played a larger role with Wheeler’s early-career struggles. Velasquez has been mostly healthy. And bad.
3. The Top Player Will Not Be Ronald Acuna, Mike Trout, or Christian Yelich
This one isn’t exactly a trick. Historically, the top draft picks do not go on to be the very best player. It’s rare. Maybe this is a Mookie Betts year, or perhaps Trevor Story hits yet another gear. And the door is wide open for Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, or another ace to fire off 22 wins and 220 IP en route to an easy Top 1 standing.
This trio should be picked first, second, and third in most formats. Just don’t be surprised when they return fifth, 11th, and 17th overall production.
4. Noah Syndergaard Isn’t An Ace
Based on some anecdotal testing over the years, negative predictions are much more likely to come true. Despite 80-grade mound presence, Syndergaard hasn’t quite pieced it all together yet. He was most recently a true ace in 2016.
The book on Thor isn’t complicated. He doesn’t establish his 98-mph fastball inside, and he does nothing to tame the running game. This causes his run prevention to play down. These are seemingly easy adjustments, yet he hasn’t made them after spending five years in the majors.
He’ll be good if healthy, but not quite on par with similar ADP aces like Yu Darvish, Zack Greinke, and Tyler Glasnow.
5. The Top Closer Will Not Be Kirby Yates, Josh Hader, or Liam Hendriks
A closer version of #3. This time last year, Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were the top closers by ADP. They failed as they were thrown to the ground. ~aaaaiiiaiaaiaiii~
I don’t have any specific reason to hate on these relievers. As a narrative builder, I could point to Yates’ splitter, Hader’s workload, and Hendriks’ longer track record of mediocrity as reasons to doubt. But Diaz and Treinen failed for unexpected reasons. If these guys also fail, expect it to be injury or a surprise.
6. Will Smith Leads The Braves In Saves
Mark Melancon will supposedly retain the closer role. The Braves haven’t used Rays-style stoppers under Brian Snitker, and I don’t expect them to start now. Smith already ousted Melancon (indirectly) when they were teammates in San Francisco. Will history repeat?
7. Jake Arrieta Is 12-Team Roto-Relevant
The trick to this one is two-fold. “Roto-relevant” is a low bar. As long as he’s streamable, he’s relevant. But Arrieta wasn’t streamable last year. He had zero positive categories. To be streamed, one must have a positive category, a juicy matchup, or be close to average across the board.
This is also simple bet on health. Surgery to clean up bone spurs has Arrieta talking like he’s a new man. A rebound in velocity and a dip to his 1.39 HR/9 could restore his ratios and maybe even unlock some swinging strikes. Of course, such rebounds are hardly assured.
8. No Player Hits 50 Home Runs
In this power-driven meta, betting against power outcomes feels foolish. However, it took 693 plate appearances for Pete Alonso to tally his 53 big flies. And he was the only one to cross the finish line. Mike Trout (45 HR, 134 G), Christian Yelich (44 HR, 130 G), and Nelson Cruz (41 HR, 120 G) couldn’t stay healthy.
This is a simple supply problem. There are only so many players capable of hitting 50 home runs. We know injuries will claim several. Even a nagging five or 10 game injury is enough to derail the quest for 50 homers. We should also expect pitchers to collectively adjust to prevent home runs. And let’s not get started on the baseball.
9. Adam Eaton Is A Dude
“Is a dude” is a vague way of saying a guy will be some kind of good without defining the exact shape. I used this exact pick, word for word, in my 2019 Bold Predictions. And I claimed victory after a solid 15/15 campaign with 103 runs and a good AVG/OBP.
Eaton has shaken the injury prone label, taking some of the shine off this one.
10. The Falling ADPs For Astros Hitters Is a Mistake
Quite a few notable Astros are dropping down draft boards led by Alex Bregman (not Yordan Alvarez though!). We have no evidence the club was actually cheating in 2019. With the possible exception of Yuli Gurriel, decline is not especially likely for this elite offense. Count on massive PA totals fueling extra opportunities.
Some speculate that the negative press will affect a few players mentally. Perhaps, but I’m not buying it.
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What kind of bold prediction do you have for Wander Javier in 2020? What’s his upside?
11. Wander Javier Bounces
I know fantasy baseball might try and take the emotion out of things, but at least for myself and a few of the people I talk to, the dropping Astros hitters might be less of a “think they’ll do worse” sentiment and more of a “I normally root for players on my team to do well and its hard to root for cheaters” sentiment. The same line of thinking goes towards guys like Osuna and Braun.
This is pretty accurate I think. I’m sure plenty of people will draft this way. As long as they recognize that it slightly hurts their chances of winning, then that’s fine.
I may in the minority here, but I actually avoid drafting my favorite players or players on my favorite team (unless there’s obvious value with the pick of course) just to remove myself from any emotion that might be involved with playing. I recognize that this kind of puts a wet towel on some fun that could be had from playing haha but it’s just how I operate.
You know what they always say, sanctimonious attitudes towards professional athletes wins fantasy championships
VV set a major league “record” in 2018 for the fewest IP for a guy who made 30 starts with 146.2 IP*. He plain and simply cannot make it into the order a 3rd time – he just gets shelled the 3rd time through. Not a little, a lot – career OPS by time through: .745, .741, .947. Basically every hitter becomes 2019 Bogaerts or Springer or Arenado against him the 3rd time through. The Phils already started voluntarily shortening his starts the 2nd half last year. Barring a radical change in VV’s arsenal or usage patterns, I don’t see how he gets to 150 IP.
*As an aside: Spencer Turnbull just missed last year throwing 148.1 IP in his 30 starts. Steven Matz deserves some mention here as well since he is working on consecutive years of at least 30 GS and not throwing enough innings for the ERA title. There have been 29 seasons in MLB history where a guy made 30 starts and didn’t throw 162 IP, 10 of them have come in the last 2 years.
And since I’m knee-deep in this one, the 1st season of 30 GS and fewer than 162 IP was Fritz Peterson in 1974 (32 GS, 160.1 IP), then Ed Whitson in 1985 and Bobby Witt in 1986, then another 12 years until Ken Cloude in 1998, then 5 years to 2 guys in 2003, then a string of guys from 2006-2009, then a relative lull until picking up full tilt starting in 2017. So by year:
1974 1
1985 1
1986 1
1998 1
2003 2
2006 1
2007 3
2008 2
2009 2
2013 1
2016 1
2017 3
2018 3
2019 7 (Turnbull, Bundy, Odorizzi, Davies, Happ, Matz, Kikuchi)
Different, different era we are entering right now.
I think the Tucker one is a slam dunk. In my experience Robert’s profile is one that lends itself to a considerable adjustment period in the majors. That Robert isn’t even getting to half of Tucker’s MiLB BB rates is the giveaway.
I love, love, LOVE the Bold Predictions and read every single one, and they bring me joy. The trick is to then ignore the hell of out of them when drafting your teams.
If healthy, Gallo gets to 50.
I don’t disagree in a general sense. The only player I have *projected* to cross 50.
Big Mets fan here… I don’t know that I would agree with your assessment of Thor’s “mound presence.” And that comes from a huge fan who watches a LOT of his starts. Part of what holds him back is the way he unravels with runners on base beyond the running game itself, or the way he responds when a call doesn’t go his way. The difference between Thor and deGrom, who is unflappable beyond perhaps an eye roll before he moves on, is huge. Syndergaard is a really strong 3 but part of what is keeping him from going up to “solid 2” or ace is the mound presence component, in my opinion. It’s one thing to look intimidating with no one on. It’s another thing to be able to stop the bleeding, stop fuming, and get out of an inning. Just my opinion.