Brad Johnson’s 10 Deceptively Not-Bold Predictions

It’s not quite Bold Prediction season, but we’re starting to close in on it. After all these years of boldly predicting, I’ve picked up a few hacks. I’ll never jam them past you readers – you’re always sharpening the “not bold” knives – but I can usually squeeze through a few open-ended scenarios.

Today, I’ll share 10 which might look bold at first blush but actually are pretty tame. I expect at least a 50% win-rate on these.

These are not my 10 Bold Predictions.

1. If Kyle Tucker Plays 150 Games, He Will Outperform Luis Robert

Tucker and Robert are similar players. They project to combine tantalizing power and speed while perhaps featuring a little too much swing-and-miss to be true superstars. The physical talent is there, we’ll just have to see how it shakes out. Tucker has shown more signs of emergent plate discipline, but he’s trapped behind Josh Reddick on a Dusty Baker-led club. Robert has an everyday role sewn up, but might struggle to cross a .300 OBP.

The trick here is in the 150 games. For Tucker to win a regular role and retain it with this Houston organization (trash cans or not), he’ll have to perform at a very high level. And if he’s performed at a high level, then odds are he outkicked Robert. Plausible outcomes for this pair range from Fernando Tatis Jr. to Lewis Brinson with Michael Taylor and Byron Buxton also on the comp list.

2. If Vince Velasquez Pitches 150 Innings, He Will Pull A Zack Wheeler

This is the pitcher version of #1. For Velasquez to get this kind of action – including a career high in innings – he’ll have to finally turn his tantalizing 9.80 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, and 10.9 SwStr% into consistently positive outcomes. VV is entering his age 28 season. It’s not too late for a breakout. I mention Wheeler because he spontaneously added velocity and tightened up his command at age 28. However, injuries played a larger role with Wheeler’s early-career struggles. Velasquez has been mostly healthy. And bad.

3. The Top Player Will Not Be Ronald Acuna, Mike Trout, or Christian Yelich

This one isn’t exactly a trick. Historically, the top draft picks do not go on to be the very best player. It’s rare. Maybe this is a Mookie Betts year, or perhaps Trevor Story hits yet another gear. And the door is wide open for Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, or another ace to fire off 22 wins and 220 IP en route to an easy Top 1 standing.

This trio should be picked first, second, and third in most formats. Just don’t be surprised when they return fifth, 11th, and 17th overall production.

4. Noah Syndergaard Isn’t An Ace

Based on some anecdotal testing over the years, negative predictions are much more likely to come true. Despite 80-grade mound presence, Syndergaard hasn’t quite pieced it all together yet. He was most recently a true ace in 2016.

The book on Thor isn’t complicated. He doesn’t establish his 98-mph fastball inside, and he does nothing to tame the running game. This causes his run prevention to play down. These are seemingly easy adjustments, yet he hasn’t made them after spending five years in the majors.

He’ll be good if healthy, but not quite on par with similar ADP aces like Yu Darvish, Zack Greinke, and Tyler Glasnow.

5. The Top Closer Will Not Be Kirby Yates, Josh Hader, or Liam Hendriks

A closer version of #3. This time last year, Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were the top closers by ADP. They failed as they were thrown to the ground. ~aaaaiiiaiaaiaiii~

I don’t have any specific reason to hate on these relievers. As a narrative builder, I could point to Yates’ splitter, Hader’s workload, and Hendriks’ longer track record of mediocrity as reasons to doubt. But Diaz and Treinen failed for unexpected reasons. If these guys also fail, expect it to be injury or a surprise.

6. Will Smith Leads The Braves In Saves

Mark Melancon will supposedly retain the closer role. The Braves haven’t used Rays-style stoppers under Brian Snitker, and I don’t expect them to start now. Smith already ousted Melancon (indirectly) when they were teammates in San Francisco. Will history repeat?

7. Jake Arrieta Is 12-Team Roto-Relevant

The trick to this one is two-fold. “Roto-relevant” is a low bar. As long as he’s streamable, he’s relevant. But Arrieta wasn’t streamable last year. He had zero positive categories. To be streamed, one must have a positive category, a juicy matchup, or be close to average across the board.

This is also simple bet on health. Surgery to clean up bone spurs has Arrieta talking like he’s a new man. A rebound in velocity and a dip to his 1.39 HR/9 could restore his ratios and maybe even unlock some swinging strikes. Of course, such rebounds are hardly assured.

8. No Player Hits 50 Home Runs

In this power-driven meta, betting against power outcomes feels foolish. However, it took 693 plate appearances for Pete Alonso to tally his 53 big flies. And he was the only one to cross the finish line. Mike Trout (45 HR, 134 G), Christian Yelich (44 HR, 130 G), and Nelson Cruz (41 HR, 120 G) couldn’t stay healthy.

This is a simple supply problem. There are only so many players capable of hitting 50 home runs. We know injuries will claim several. Even a nagging five or 10 game injury is enough to derail the quest for 50 homers. We should also expect pitchers to collectively adjust to prevent home runs. And let’s not get started on the baseball.

9. Adam Eaton Is A Dude

“Is a dude” is a vague way of saying a guy will be some kind of good without defining the exact shape. I used this exact pick, word for word, in my 2019 Bold Predictions. And I claimed victory after a solid 15/15 campaign with 103 runs and a good AVG/OBP.

Eaton has shaken the injury prone label, taking some of the shine off this one.

10. The Falling ADPs For Astros Hitters Is a Mistake

Quite a few notable Astros are dropping down draft boards led by Alex Bregman (not Yordan Alvarez though!). We have no evidence the club was actually cheating in 2019. With the possible exception of Yuli Gurriel, decline is not especially likely for this elite offense. Count on massive PA totals fueling extra opportunities.

Some speculate that the negative press will affect a few players mentally. Perhaps, but I’m not buying it.