Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 9/20/16

Today’s transcript is go. Lots of dynasty and keeper questions.

1:45

Brad Johnson: Ahoy there

1:46

Brad Johnson: This might be the last chat of the season based on the number of participants these last few weeks.

1:46

Brad Johnson: On the plus side, we should be able to have a little more back and forth later in the session

1:46

Vic Romano: 12 team keep-forever league. Only have room to keep either Rendon or Bregman for 3B. Leaning towards Bregman because of Rendon’s tendency to frequently be injured. Agree?

1:47

Brad Johnson: That’s a tricky position to find oneself. I think it depends on the composition of your roster

1:47

Brad Johnson: if you’re feeling ambivalent about contending next year – like you’d need luck or something you can’t plan to happen – then keep Bregman

1:47

Brad Johnson: if 2017 is something of a last shot for your roster, go for Rendon

1:47

Brad Johnson: the space between is the tricky part

1:48

Brad Johnson: No need to decide now, we’ll have more detailed analysis on both of them by the end of the year

1:48

nelson: Please rate these MI options for 2017 – Owings, Andrus, Forsythe?

1:48

Brad Johnson: Opposite order

1:48

MJ: Leonys Martin’s season went down the tubes after he came back from his injury. Do you think the first 2 months are outliers, or do you think he wasn’t really healthy after he came back and thus can hit to those levels (or near it at least) next year?

1:48

Brad Johnson: This happens with some frequency – player makes adjustment, gets injured, loses adjustment

1:49

Brad Johnson: sometimes it comes back later, often it doesn’t

1:49

Brad Johnson: I’d bet on no, but don’t be afraid to take another flier in an appropriately deep format

1:49

Bruce: Would you keep either (or both of) Arodys at 5$ or Cam Bedrosian at 7$ (ottoneu prices) in hopes that they are closers in 2017?

1:49

Brad Johnson: Depends on team composition.

1:50

Brad Johnson: Relievers are the best source for surplus value

1:50

Brad Johnson: at those prices, they have to exceed current projections. I probably keep them if it down to them or free agents

1:51

Brad Johnson: I know I’d be forced to cut them/trade from my roster but that’s where Trout/Kershaw/Goldy leave you

1:51

Bruce: If mlb went to 9 DH spots in the lineup, how long until there were no 2-way players?

1:51

Brad Johnson: I don’t even…

1:51

Nelson: Whats your cut line for Strasburg in Otto 5×5?

1:51

Brad Johnson: I don’t have a sheet drawn up, but I’d guess upper $40s

1:51

Brad Johnson: Pending more news of course

1:51

Brad Johnson: still assuming he’s normal health for 2017

1:51

JD15: Astros are killing me right now. I have Bregman wasting an active roster spot on my bench when he could be on the DL if it weren’t September. Currently facing the best team in my league, but I can’t drop him (18 team league keep 12).

1:52

Brad Johnson: yea, I have a cheap Carrasco in a big semi-final

1:52

Kvn: What do you make of Hamels next year? The increase in BBs is troubling.

1:52

Brad Johnson: I’m not worried about walks per se

1:53

Brad Johnson: it’s a natural reaction to the AL and they’re mostly strategically issued from what I’ve seen

1:53

Brad Johnson: I expect more of the same. Tantalizingly close to ace numbers for long stretches with occasional clunkers

1:53

Brad Johnson: 3.50 ERA

1:53

Belt Belt: Hosmer or Brandon Belt?

1:53

Brad Johnson: It’s Belt for me, but I bet I’m in the minority

1:53

John: Is Odo trustworthy? I mistakenly benched him for both starts last week and hes got Bos at home on Sunday this week

1:54

Brad Johnson: He’s a solid midrotation pitcher, but you can’t count on him to consistently outpitch the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles lineups.

1:54

Brad Johnson: Toronto might be a lot less scary next year though

1:54

Ricky: Thoughts on Freddy Galvis

1:54

Brad Johnson: Yes, many

1:54

Brad Johnson: Let’s start with JP Crawford re: not ready yet

1:55

Brad Johnson: Crawford probably gets a call sometime next year, but I’m not longer convinced it’s a guarantee

1:55

Brad Johnson: he has to start to really hit

1:55

Brad Johnson: Galvis’ power outburst is mostly a second half phenomenon

1:55

Brad Johnson: says one of two things – there’s either more power in the tank for next season, or this is all a fluke

1:56

Brad Johnson: ISO takes 3 years to “stabilize” for those who follow regression rates

1:56

Brad Johnson: so half a year of big HR numbers is more likely to be noise than signal

1:56

Brad Johnson: Galvis did add a leg kick, but it was well before the power showed up

1:56

Brad Johnson: overall, I think he’s a lower OBP Zack Cozart

1:57

Brad Johnson: the defense will keep him on the field

1:57

CarlC: AJ Reed or Cron for next year and beyond?

1:57

Brad Johnson: Cron

1:57

Brad Johnson: Maybe Reed long term, but he has to prove he can hit

1:57

Brad Johnson: Reed was never a blue chip prospect

1:57

Brad Johnson: we all got very excited about his 2015, but he backslid this year

1:57

Belt Belt: Gsellman a go against ATL today? Atl has been putting up some runs of late

1:57

Brad Johnson: eh, I’m not using him

1:57

Nelson: Joey Bats looks like a 4th+ rounder in 2017, huh?

1:58

Brad Johnson: Smells about right to me

1:58

Brad Johnson: we’ll see where he lands

1:58

Brad Johnson: I’d love to see him playing first base in Coors 🙂

1:59

Brad Johnson: Cargo, Blackmon, Arenado, Dahl, Story, LeMahieu, Murphy, and Joey Bats!

1:59

Brad Johnson: damn…

1:59

Don: Keep three (10 team mixed): Harper, Arenado, then one of: Yelich, Story, JD Martinez? Also, I lost the playoffs last week and my coworkers convinced me to play fantasy football. It’s so boring. How do I cope?

1:59

Brad Johnson: Story

1:59

Don: What do you expect from Pujols next year? I have him for $20 in ottoneu. He’s obviously aging, but it doesn’t seem like a crazy price.

2:00

Brad Johnson: It’s not a crazy price, but I’d sure prefer something better and/or cheaper

2:00

Brad Johnson: it’s hard to contend if you’re paying $20 for a Pujols

2:00

Brad Johnson: even if the spreadsheet says you can

2:00

JD15: After last night’s performance against the mariners, do you like Estrada in upcoming matchup with Yankees in Canada?

2:00

Brad Johnson: He’s hurt. I like healthy Estrada plenty. Hurt Estrada is a nightmare to manage

2:00

Baller McCheese: 2017: Urias is a top ___ SP?

2:01

Brad Johnson: 40?

2:01

Brad Johnson: 60?

2:01

Brad Johnson: Still inning capped to some degree

2:01

Brad Johnson: and the Dodgers still have a couple thousand SP

2:01

Kvn: Looks like AJ Reed is going to retain rookie eligibility (at 114 AB right now, hasn’t played since 9/11), is he worth keeping at a rookie salary in an AL only 4×4 ($5/$260 on a three year contract)?

2:01

Brad Johnson: yes

2:02

Brad Johnson: I’m not a huge fan at the moment, the potential for 30 HR and solid, mid-order role is too good to dump

2:02

808: aloha brad, in the finals. fangraphs points league (homeruns =-17 points) T. Anderson @ LAD, or Cobb vs. NYY, or Pineada @ Tor? muchas gracias 🙂

2:02

Brad Johnson: I’m going Anderson without a second thought

2:02

Brad Johnson: Those all-lefty Dodgers don’t stand a chance

2:02

Ceej: He’s young, raw, and skipped AAA, so what’re you expecting from ’17 Moncada? Trying to decide if he’s my last in a deep keeper.

2:02

Brad Johnson: Not much MLB time, if any

2:03

Brad Johnson: It’s not like he conquered Double-A

2:03

Brad Johnson: silly of the FO to get pushed around by the manager

2:03

Brad Johnson: now they lose a player they could have protected in the Rule 5 draft

2:03

Avi: Has Kang vaulted himself back up into keeper consideration in a keep 6 league?

2:03

Brad Johnson: Keep 6 sounds light

2:04

Brad Johnson: I did grab him off the wire in a couple leagues where he’ll cost $15 and $14

2:04

Brad Johnson: but he won’t be one of my first six on those rosters either

2:04

fresh basil: Is Jose ramirez a keepable asset @10 in a 14 team mixed roto? Seems like he’s right there.

2:04

Brad Johnson: yes, I’d gamble on the production holding steady

2:04

Brad Johnson: the flex will make up for any regression

2:05

808: Do I reaaalllly start Billy Butler over McCann at DH in my AL-only points league this week?!

2:05

Brad Johnson: Ugh, I hope not

2:05

Brad Johnson: I haven’t looked at NYY matchups closely so if they’re facing a bunch of LHP…

2:05

Ombudsman: Pick up Robert Gsellman for his next two starts (vs ATL & vs PHI) and drop Luke Weaver who’s pitching tomorrow @ COL?

2:05

Brad Johnson: If you need the stats, you can, but I’m not a fan of Gsellman the starter

2:05

Pb&Js: What’s your take on Domingo Santana for the next (presumably healthy) season? What kind of full-season value would you expect?

2:06

Brad Johnson: $5-10

2:06

John: Throwin Robbie Ray V. Bal is suicide right?

2:06

Brad Johnson: Russian Roulette

2:06

Brad Johnson: O’s could hand him 14 Ks in 6 innings

2:06

Brad Johnson: or score six runs in 14 batters

2:06

CoolWinnebago: What do you think of Greg Bird and AJ Reed as buy-low 1Bs going into next year?

2:06

Brad Johnson: Love the Bird buy, but people will remember he exists before long and go back to the overhype well

2:07

Brad Johnson: Reed should be cheap

2:07

Pb&Js: Jake Lamb’s 2017 – more like 2016’s 1st or 2nd half?

2:07

Brad Johnson: Combined season

2:07

Brad Johnson: He’ll be streaky is my guess

2:07

Brad Johnson: Jay Brucey Bruce

2:07

Wadlez: Where are you drafting Trea Turner next year?

2:07

Brad Johnson: This is something I have to resolve later

2:08

Brad Johnson: I expected him to need a lot of adjustment at the MLB level

2:08

Brad Johnson: so now I have to figure out if he’s just that good or the scouting reports were just that wrong

2:08

Ricky: What is Rich Hill value next year

2:09

Brad Johnson: He’s going to be that last “stud” pitcher everybody waits to get

2:09

Brad Johnson: making him overpriced relative to his expected production

2:09

JD15: Best bet for holds rest of the way: off the DL O’Day, Tommy Layne, Treinen, Salas?

2:09

Brad Johnson: O’Day

2:09

Brad Johnson: maybe Salas

2:09

Brad Johnson: but I like O’Day most

2:10

Avi: Rockies and Reds lining up on a trade like that seems to be a poor idea.

2:10

Brad Johnson: Quoi?

2:10

Vic Romano: I think I’m in the space between. We keep 10, but there’s no limit to how long we can keep people, and no salaries or anything to consider. Pretty sure my keepers will be some combination of this group – Bryant, Rizzo, Betts, Braun, Abreu, Rendon, Russell, Mazara, Dahl, Bregman, Kershaw, Scherzer, Darvish. I feel like I’ve got a pretty strong core group there and should be competing each year for a while.

2:11

Brad Johnson: Yea that’s a tough situation then. Rendon or Bregman aren’t the only tough cuts. I will say I think Bregman may switch to SS over the offseason

2:11

Brad Johnson: something to monitor

2:12

mookie best: Hold onto Urias in a 10 team keep-3? I’d keep him in last round but he’s burning a bench spot in the finals

2:12

Brad Johnson: I can’t imagine Urias is a top keeper option in a 10 teamer, even at that price

2:12

TP for my Jung Ho: 10 team league, no CI or MI, only 3 OF. Needless to say, star players matter. Budget is $400. 3 keepers. I’m dominating this year because I spent most of my budget on stars like $100 Trout and $67 Kershaw. I think prices will adjust next year and get run up on the top players. Keep 3, $1 W Myers, $1 T Story, $1 A Bregman, $1 K Hendricks, $100 Trout, $67 Kershaw. Leaning toward Trout, Kershaw, Myers. Thoughts?

2:13

Brad Johnson: Kershaw is probably a must. I really like Story. I might let Trout go under the theory you can redraft him for $100+whatever Myers would cost minus 1

2:14

Brad Johnson: If Myers is a $50 player in auction, then $1 Myers and $149 Trout is same as $100 Trout and $50 Myers

2:15

Brad Johnson: Also, that’s way too big a budget for that format/keeper rules

2:15

Guest: I love Franklin Barreto and think he could me up 5-1to my gun’s in reserves or play it safe with Brandon Drury. I love the upside of Franklin

2:15

Brad Johnson: I like Barreto more long term, but Drury is solid too

2:15

forever it: Deep dynasty league, which two would you drop of Straily, Gsellman, Lugo, Kuhl, Miguel Gonzalez, Alcantara?

2:15

Brad Johnson: Gonzalez or Alcantara

2:15

Brad Johnson: ahem and*

2:16

Brad Johnson: Gsellman in the mix too

2:16

Jacques: Villar or Pollock keeper 2017?

2:16

Brad Johnson: ooh, Villar for the position eligibilities, I think

2:16

Skittles: Should I start Alex Reyes @ChC this week?

2:16

Brad Johnson: Check the lineups. Could be the scrub team starting

2:16

Avi: Does the slow down for Betances (and the implosion last week) sort of hurt his value next year if there is no Miller/Chapman type coming?

2:17

Brad Johnson: No, hiring Jansen or Chapman hurts his value

2:17

Brad Johnson: otherwise he’s a contender for top 1 RP value

2:17

Kvn: RE the Bregman frustration: we have a rule in our league where if a player in September hasn’t played in more than a week you can reserve him as if he were a DL player, but you cant bring him back up for the remainder of the season. Helps alleviate the classic “no need to DL or demote a guy with 40 man rosters” problem.

2:17

Brad Johnson: That’s a nice adaptation

2:17

Wiggles: Better streaming option: Jon Gray @LAD, Colby Lewis @Oak, Daniel Norris @ KC?

2:17

Brad Johnson: Gimme Gray

2:17

Brad Johnson: risky of course

2:17

Brad Johnson: but they all are

2:18

Rob: What kind of pieces would you need to put on the table to acquire Trout in a fantasy trade? It’s a 14 team mixed dynasty.

2:18

Brad Johnson: Dynasty monsters. Story, Mazara, and Dahl perhaps?

2:18

Brad Johnson: A Kershaw deal if the owner needs pitching more than offense

2:18

fresh basil: Is Zunino a target for next year?can he be traded to Colorado so it’ll be a solid yes?

2:19

Brad Johnson: The HR will always be tempting, but I see him as a $1 guy outside of Only formats

2:19

JT: Start 1 at RF to win the league: Stanton, Joey Bats, or Jorge Soler.

2:19

Brad Johnson: Stanton

2:19

JT: Jordan Zimmerman. *uncontrollable sobbing*

2:19

Brad Johnson: Hey, you got more than you could have ever asked for in April/May

2:20

Brad Johnson: it’s your fault for staying on the train after the conductor told you the tracks were gone

2:20

Arnie: What position does Yuli Gurriel play for the Astros next year. It seems they like Bregman at 3rd, so where does Yuli fit and what type of player do you think he turns out to be.

2:20

Brad Johnson: He’s probably just a solid bat, maybe 110 wRC+

2:20

Brad Johnson: could fit in a corner OF or semi-platoon role like Valbuena or Marwin did for most of the year

2:20

Wiggles: Are Strasburg’s health concerns significant enough to you that you would keep a 2nd tier pitcher over him in dynasty, like a Carrasco or Hamels?

2:21

Brad Johnson: well, I don’t consider Carrasco a second tier guy

2:21

Brad Johnson: But no, I haven’t seen enough to downgrade Strasburg

2:21

Brad Johnson: yet*

2:21

Brad Johnson: There’s more info to gather yet

2:21

Avi: Well, the Reds could give Votto, but the Rockies would give what? Gray? Bettis? Hoffman? A fireman?

2:21

Brad Johnson: There’s no framework that sends Joey Votto to Coors

2:22

Joey: Final two dynasty roster slots, 10 team 3 OF league. Victor Robles, Rafael Devers, Dom Smith? Thanks!!!

2:22

Brad Johnson: Devers and Robles

2:22

Joey: In a H2H playoff in a 10-team dynasty…. I need roster flexibility to stream and spot start. Would it be crazy to drop Jake Lamb if I have Machado and Bregman for next year (plus Correa at SS, limiting Machado’s usage at SS)? Is Jake Lamb a top-100 player next season?

2:22

Brad Johnson: Yea he’s around the top 100 bubble

2:22

Brad Johnson: one of those guys who will get hype and could end up cut if he scuffles through mid-April

2:23

Brad Johnson: like Mark Trumbo in 2015

2:23

Brad Johnson: and like Mark Trumbo, scuffling is well within the realm of possibility

2:23

Brad Johnson: Your opportunity cost might be right for the cut, but I have to think you’re better long term by trading him

2:23

fresh basil: Rondon, Bedrosian, Rosenthal, Edwin Diaz, Dull, Strickland, Strop? How many do I hit on as closers next year?

2:24

Brad Johnson: I’ll put the line at 3.5

2:24

Brad Johnson: you mean at any point, right? Excluding spot saves

2:24

dave in slc: who would you rather have at a $5 bid for al only to try to rebuild for next year and take a flier? boxberger, vogelbach,moran or lind? or wait to see if sonny gray gets activated and bid on him?

2:24

Brad Johnson: woof

2:24

Brad Johnson: well not Moran

2:25

Brad Johnson: I don’t think Box gets the job back from Colome

2:25

Brad Johnson: Vogey isn’t getting tested enough for the M’s to hand him the job

2:25

Brad Johnson: Lind isn’t guaranteed to stay in the AL

2:25

Brad Johnson: might wait on Sonny

2:25

Joey: Can you share your thoughts on Devon Travis as a dynasty asset?

2:26

Brad Johnson: I’m a big Devon Travis fan, but we also have to recognize how strong 2B is right now

2:26

Brad Johnson: In a 20 team format, he may be the 20th best 2B. That still has a place as the starting MI, but it’s also someone you’re trying to upgrade

2:27

Brad Johnson: I’ll be looking for some adjustments out of him next year, specifically adding walks and cutting Ks

2:27

Brad Johnson: no reason for him to be 20% K rate and below 5% BB with his bat to ball skills

2:27

fresh basil: Why is Congrats still closing in Cincy? Not that this matters IRL but Iglesias is definitely the man for the job.

2:27

Brad Johnson: They want Iglesias to start next year

2:28

Brad Johnson: if you let him run with the CL job, he turns into Chapman, Osuna, Rosenthal, Papelbon, etc

2:28

Brad Johnson: long list of should be starters who stayed as the CL

2:28

Brad Johnson: probably Edwin Diaz next year

2:28

Joey: I need innings in a H2H playoff game. How risky is Musgrove tonight? I need a QS and otherwise need to avoid a blowup.

2:28

Brad Johnson: heh

2:28

Brad Johnson: well…

2:29

Brad Johnson: if I were to write a narrative to that game, I’d probably say “Musgrove is likely to either earn a QS or meltdown entirely”

2:29

Brad Johnson: he seems to be either on or off

2:29

Brad Johnson: not uncommon for new command guys

2:29

Avi: Does Tommy Joseph become the 2017 sleeper like Bour was supposed to be for 2016?

2:29

Brad Johnson: Sounds about right

2:29

Brad Johnson: 30-40 HR power right now with terrible plate discipline

2:30

Brad Johnson: Bour was a little more polished at the plate with much less raw power

2:30

Joey: Do you think Edwin Diaz remains in the closer role, and if not, how highly would you value him as a SP next year?

2:30

Brad Johnson: He’d be $1 flier as a SP

2:30

Brad Johnson: I’d expect him to spend most of the season pitching in Triple-A

2:30

Brad Johnson: There’s a very good chance they leave him as the closer instead

2:31

Brad Johnson: especially since teams will pay a steep bounty for elite RP now, there’s less incentive to develop SP if you already have a full rotation

2:31

Kvn: Thinking of David Ortiz: how often are you in a situation where you would LOVE to keep a guy next season but you cant because he’s retiring?

2:31

Brad Johnson: Rarely, I tend to not end up with many old guys

2:31

mookie best: Thx for the advice this season.

2:31

Brad Johnson: *bows

2:32

HomebrewJ: Any early standouts for dynasty first year prospect drafts next year?

2:32

Brad Johnson: Nick Senzel, Lourdes Gurriel spring to mind

2:32

Brad Johnson: I’d have to do some homework, my deepest dynasty let’s us pick up anybody. Prospects are usually taken as 15 year olds

2:32

Pomeranz: What value does Mallex Smith have in an NL only for next season? Do SB’s alone make him worth $15?

2:33

Brad Johnson: $15 might be steep considering I don’t see an obvious starting role for him

2:33

Brad Johnson: A lot can change, but Kemp, Ender, and Markakis seemingly have the starting spots on lock

2:33

Bob: Need to pick 8 keepers from – Posey, Rizzo, Bergman, Kipnis, Cutch, Braun, sCespedes, Desmond, Dahl, MadBum, Carrasco, Archer. Thoughts 5×5 roto

2:34

Brad Johnson: Without putting too much thought into it, my first instinct is Rizzo, Dahl, Kipnis, MadBum, Braun, Cespedes, Bergman, SP

2:34

Brad Johnson: probably prefer Carrasco

2:35

Pomeranz: would you keep lorenzen in an NL only for $1?

2:35

Brad Johnson: Depends on the opportunity cost of that spot

2:35

Brad Johnson: Lorenzen is a solid $1 gamble, but I imagine there are dozens of similar picks

2:35

Pomeranz: Reyes and Deleon each worth $7 in an NL only next year?

2:35

Brad Johnson: Oh yes

2:35

The Kid: First year in a keeper format (10tm, keep 5). In this shallow of a format I am having trouble deciding whether it is worth keeping someone like Bryant at $32+, Blackmon at $20+, Seager at $20+, or some combination of Pollock $7, Polanco $7, Mazara $5, Dahl $2, Hanley $1. What are your thoughts?

2:36

Brad Johnson: This is a nice meaty question

2:36

Brad Johnson: In this case, your cheap options are also very attractive

2:36

Brad Johnson: I’d usually suggest playing it safe with the elite talents

2:37

Brad Johnson: and it’s really hard to swallow parting with the more expensive guys because they’re such great discounts

2:37

Brad Johnson: I’d go Bryant, Blackmon, Seager, Dahl, and Pollock/Polanco

2:37

Arnie: Do you think the White Sox trade Robertson and make Nate Jones their closer next year?

2:37

Brad Johnson: No

2:37

Brad Johnson: they need more bullpen depth, not less

2:37

JD15: Over the offseason thinking about selling high on JBJ and Fulmer. Thoughts on both of them heading into next season? Am I right to try and sell or am I just biased bc of how they have performed since August?

2:38

Brad Johnson: nothing wrong with selling high. Just so long as you actually receive the high return

2:38

Brad Johnson: too often, I see people cite selling high to justify really bad trades

2:38

Brad Johnson: To use an extreme example, trading Fulmer for Eickhoff is NOT selling high

2:39

Snowflake: How much has this season’s performance hurt Bryce’s value going into next season? Is he still a no brainer first rounder? There’s no question you keep him at $26 over Murphy at $11 right?

2:39

Brad Johnson: He’s on the 1st round bubble for me

2:39

Brad Johnson: that’s mostly a matter of other guys playing exceptionally well

2:39

Brad Johnson: 12 teams fwiw

2:39

Brad Johnson: And yes, I keep him over Murphy’s career season

2:39

Moltar: Crashed out in the semi-finals so I will not repeat as league champ 🙁 Just wanted to say thank you for the help and for answering my questions throughout the season. You and the RG team are the real MVPs!

2:40

Moltar: Better keeper at the minimum (12tm h2h keep 6), Bregman or Sanchez?

2:40

Brad Johnson: Assuming 1 C league, Bregman

2:40

Brad Johnson: Assuming 2 C league, probably still Bregman

2:40

Brad Johnson: but it’s closer if you need 2 because Sanchez should bat just about every day

2:40

Brad Johnson: that’s huge if you can get two guys like that

2:41

fresh basil: If Braun goes to LA this offsets on it has to affect his value going into the draft right? Thinking he drops a few bucks.

2:41

Brad Johnson: Lineup effects probably make up for the change in venue

2:41

Brad Johnson: though I do dock a couple $ from anybody changing teams

2:41

Cybo: Trying to decide on some keepers. 12 team h2h with ops and qs. Trying to decide between..

2:41

Brad Johnson: I’d take him over the other guy

2:41

Brad Johnson: 🙂

2:41

Pomeranz: Polanco a $30 player next year?

2:42

Brad Johnson: In the right context. I’m looking at him more as a $20-25 guy

2:42

Brad Johnson: his numbers improved, but so did everyone else

2:42

Pomeranz: Who do yo prefer for 2017 in an NL. Both at $34 Strasburg or DeGrom?

2:42

Brad Johnson: Strasburg for now, pending more news on both of them

2:42

John: I made a bet pre-injury that Pollock would end the season with more fantasy points than Miggy. Had he stayed healthy, you think I had a shot?

2:42

Brad Johnson: Oh yea

2:43

Brad Johnson: I was the guy considering Pollock a borderline top 6 pick

2:43

Brad Johnson: I was convinced

2:43

Snowflake: I can only keep 1 of Gary Sanchez, Dahl, Bregman, or Villar. I’m a Yankees fan and Sanchez has been unbelievable. I should just pick him and be happy right

2:43

Brad Johnson: Really, just one?

2:43

Brad Johnson: I think you’re going to hate walking away from Dahl at that price

2:43

Brad Johnson: or Villar

2:44

The Kid: RE: meaty question: So Bryant will be $38, Seager $24, Blackmon $26. Their price increases are based on ESPN’s oWAR calculator. Does that change anything? Considering Pollock’s, Polanco’s, and Mazara’s prices will have increased considerably less.

2:44

Brad Johnson: Not really. They’re still underpriced

2:44

Brad Johnson: I try to keep the best talents

2:44

The Kid: I’m just so attached to Pollock and Polanco

2:44

Brad Johnson: Hey, if you love them, go with your gut

2:45

Buck: So I just started playing some Yahoo daily fantasy with $2 that I won in a free contest, and I’m already up to $20. Do you think I’ll collect my first million from winnings or the book deal I’ll undoubtedly get based on my hot start?

2:45

Brad Johnson: FanGraphs gets 10% of that, right?

2:45

Cybo: Trying to decide on some keepers for 2017. Was hoping for your opinion. 12 team h2h with ops and qs keep 7. Keeping Stanton, Votto, and Story for sure. After them which 4 do you like best of Piscotty, Dahl, Benintendi, J Bell, Mazara, Sano, D Travis, and Cueto.

2:46

Brad Johnson: Dahl, Benintendi, Sano and either Mazara or Piscotty

2:46

Brad Johnson: depending on how amped up for 2017 you want to go

2:46

Cheese: Is Rick Porcello a keeper at $2 in mixed 12 team, keep 12?

2:46

Brad Johnson: yes

2:46

Brad Johnson: could be bumped on certain rosters, but he’s an easy $10-15 guy next year

2:46

Boris: Can I count on Ryon Healy ROS? Keeper worthy?

2:46

Brad Johnson: Yes and yes in the right format

2:47

Brad Johnson: ok wrapping up. We’re pretty much out of questions anyway!

2:47

JT: My keep forever starting 2B: Gordon, Cano, Rendon or Swanson?

2:47

Brad Johnson: Rendon if you want best production over 5 years

2:47

Brad Johnson: Gordon or Cano if you’re focused on the next 2

2:47

Brad Johnson: Swanson if you want to reach beyond 5 years at the expense of the next 2

2:48

Bobby: Think Keon Broxton’s season is a fluke? Worth keeping in mixed leagues?

2:48

Brad Johnson: Mostly

2:48

Brad Johnson: some real stuff there, but the big K rate is scary

2:48

Cybo: Ps- also have Ryon and J Lamb. Either of them keepers for you over Dahl, Benintendi, Sano, or Piscotty/Mazara?

2:48

Brad Johnson: Ooh, I might keep one of them over the latter pair

2:48

Brad Johnson: will need more analysis

2:48

Sean: 12 team, keep 8, extra categories bb, k, OBP, SLG, xbh. Correa or Goldschmidt for the next 5 years? no position concerns

2:48

Brad Johnson: Goldy

2:49

Rich: Where do you see Verlander as a keeper next year? Would you keep him over someone like Carrasco or Price? He’s looked great and throwing 97 again, but there are tons of miles on that arm.

2:49

Brad Johnson: He’s in the same bucket

2:49

Brad Johnson: the smart money is on Carrasco or Price to be better than him next year, but it’s not a crazy bet

2:49

JT: Margot Robbie in Suicide Squad or Zoe Saldana in Guardians?

2:49

Brad Johnson: Robbie

2:49

fresh basil: Have Trout, Polanco, piscotty, jup, Benintendi for a total of $64 for OFers in a 260 league. Hate to have all my OF spots taken going in but I think it’s a solid cheap crew.

2:49

JohnnyFive: Is Danny Salazar worth keeping at $22? Seems like such a crapshoot with his electric, inconsistent arm.

2:50

Brad Johnson: Watch the news on Salazar, if there’s any doubt to his health – and there almost certainly will be – I might divest

2:50

Brad Johnson: Last one…

2:50

The Kid: To get a better idea of your overall strategy, how do evaluate keeper value when it comes to keeper prices and predicted auction value? Is it a ratio or a simple difference? E.g. Bryant costs $45 at auction next year, but I could keep him for $38. So there is a perceived price increase ratio of about 1.2 and a price differential of about $7. Whereas Polanco may go for $19 next year but I could keep him for about $10, so ratio of ~1.5 and difference of $9. Obviously positional scarcity, etc. need to be considered, but your thoughts are always appreciated. I like winning.

2:51

Brad Johnson: Honestly, years of experience have taught me that this approach leads to broken rosters. If I try to anticipate prices, I’m inevitably wrong and way off target by mid-draft

2:51

Brad Johnson: The key to fantasy baseball is maximizing elite talent

2:52

Brad Johnson: if you have elite players, keep them and hope you get the $1 Storys and Villars later

2:53

Brad Johnson: hanging onto $5 mid-tier guys just so you can be one of 8 owners to fight over Clayton Kershaw’s rights is a tough racket

2:53

Brad Johnson: Good game folks

2:53

Brad Johnson: We’ll see about next week’s chat. Check the Daily Grind next Tuesday





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