Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 9/20/16

Brad Johnson: Ahoy there

Brad Johnson: This might be the last chat of the season based on the number of participants these last few weeks.

Brad Johnson: On the plus side, we should be able to have a little more back and forth later in the session

Vic Romano: 12 team keep-forever league. Only have room to keep either Rendon or Bregman for 3B. Leaning towards Bregman because of Rendon’s tendency to frequently be injured. Agree?

Brad Johnson: That’s a tricky position to find oneself. I think it depends on the composition of your roster

Brad Johnson: if you’re feeling ambivalent about contending next year – like you’d need luck or something you can’t plan to happen – then keep Bregman

Brad Johnson: if 2017 is something of a last shot for your roster, go for Rendon

Brad Johnson: the space between is the tricky part

Brad Johnson: No need to decide now, we’ll have more detailed analysis on both of them by the end of the year

nelson: Please rate these MI options for 2017 – Owings, Andrus, Forsythe?

Brad Johnson: Opposite order

MJ: Leonys Martin’s season went down the tubes after he came back from his injury. Do you think the first 2 months are outliers, or do you think he wasn’t really healthy after he came back and thus can hit to those levels (or near it at least) next year?

Brad Johnson: This happens with some frequency – player makes adjustment, gets injured, loses adjustment

Brad Johnson: sometimes it comes back later, often it doesn’t

Brad Johnson: I’d bet on no, but don’t be afraid to take another flier in an appropriately deep format

Bruce: Would you keep either (or both of) Arodys at 5$ or Cam Bedrosian at 7$ (ottoneu prices) in hopes that they are closers in 2017?

Brad Johnson: Depends on team composition.

Brad Johnson: Relievers are the best source for surplus value

Brad Johnson: at those prices, they have to exceed current projections. I probably keep them if it down to them or free agents

Brad Johnson: I know I’d be forced to cut them/trade from my roster but that’s where Trout/Kershaw/Goldy leave you

Bruce: If mlb went to 9 DH spots in the lineup, how long until there were no 2-way players?

Brad Johnson: I don’t even…

Nelson: Whats your cut line for Strasburg in Otto 5×5?

Brad Johnson: I don’t have a sheet drawn up, but I’d guess upper $40s

Brad Johnson: Pending more news of course

Brad Johnson: still assuming he’s normal health for 2017

JD15: Astros are killing me right now. I have Bregman wasting an active roster spot on my bench when he could be on the DL if it weren’t September. Currently facing the best team in my league, but I can’t drop him (18 team league keep 12).

Brad Johnson: yea, I have a cheap Carrasco in a big semi-final

Kvn: What do you make of Hamels next year? The increase in BBs is troubling.

Brad Johnson: I’m not worried about walks per se

Brad Johnson: it’s a natural reaction to the AL and they’re mostly strategically issued from what I’ve seen

Brad Johnson: I expect more of the same. Tantalizingly close to ace numbers for long stretches with occasional clunkers

Brad Johnson: 3.50 ERA

Belt Belt: Hosmer or Brandon Belt?

Brad Johnson: It’s Belt for me, but I bet I’m in the minority

John: Is Odo trustworthy? I mistakenly benched him for both starts last week and hes got Bos at home on Sunday this week

Brad Johnson: He’s a solid midrotation pitcher, but you can’t count on him to consistently outpitch the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles lineups.

Brad Johnson: Toronto might be a lot less scary next year though

Ricky: Thoughts on Freddy Galvis

Brad Johnson: Yes, many

Brad Johnson: Let’s start with JP Crawford re: not ready yet

Brad Johnson: Crawford probably gets a call sometime next year, but I’m not longer convinced it’s a guarantee

Brad Johnson: he has to start to really hit

Brad Johnson: Galvis’ power outburst is mostly a second half phenomenon

Brad Johnson: says one of two things – there’s either more power in the tank for next season, or this is all a fluke

Brad Johnson: ISO takes 3 years to “stabilize” for those who follow regression rates

Brad Johnson: so half a year of big HR numbers is more likely to be noise than signal

Brad Johnson: Galvis did add a leg kick, but it was well before the power showed up

Brad Johnson: overall, I think he’s a lower OBP Zack Cozart

Brad Johnson: the defense will keep him on the field

CarlC: AJ Reed or Cron for next year and beyond?

Brad Johnson: Cron

Brad Johnson: Maybe Reed long term, but he has to prove he can hit

Brad Johnson: Reed was never a blue chip prospect

Brad Johnson: we all got very excited about his 2015, but he backslid this year

Belt Belt: Gsellman a go against ATL today? Atl has been putting up some runs of late

Brad Johnson: eh, I’m not using him

Nelson: Joey Bats looks like a 4th+ rounder in 2017, huh?

Brad Johnson: Smells about right to me

Brad Johnson: we’ll see where he lands

Brad Johnson: I’d love to see him playing first base in Coors

Brad Johnson: Cargo, Blackmon, Arenado, Dahl, Story, LeMahieu, Murphy, and Joey Bats!

Brad Johnson: damn…

Don: Keep three (10 team mixed): Harper, Arenado, then one of: Yelich, Story, JD Martinez? Also, I lost the playoffs last week and my coworkers convinced me to play fantasy football. It’s so boring. How do I cope?

Brad Johnson: Story

Don: What do you expect from Pujols next year? I have him for $20 in ottoneu. He’s obviously aging, but it doesn’t seem like a crazy price.

Brad Johnson: It’s not a crazy price, but I’d sure prefer something better and/or cheaper

Brad Johnson: it’s hard to contend if you’re paying $20 for a Pujols

Brad Johnson: even if the spreadsheet says you can

JD15: After last night’s performance against the mariners, do you like Estrada in upcoming matchup with Yankees in Canada?

Brad Johnson: He’s hurt. I like healthy Estrada plenty. Hurt Estrada is a nightmare to manage

Baller McCheese: 2017: Urias is a top ___ SP?

Brad Johnson: 40?

Brad Johnson: 60?

Brad Johnson: Still inning capped to some degree

Brad Johnson: and the Dodgers still have a couple thousand SP

Kvn: Looks like AJ Reed is going to retain rookie eligibility (at 114 AB right now, hasn’t played since 9/11), is he worth keeping at a rookie salary in an AL only 4×4 ($5/$260 on a three year contract)?

Brad Johnson: yes

Brad Johnson: I’m not a huge fan at the moment, the potential for 30 HR and solid, mid-order role is too good to dump

808: aloha brad, in the finals. fangraphs points league (homeruns =-17 points) T. Anderson @ LAD, or Cobb vs. NYY, or Pineada @ Tor? muchas gracias

Brad Johnson: I’m going Anderson without a second thought

Brad Johnson: Those all-lefty Dodgers don’t stand a chance

Ceej: He’s young, raw, and skipped AAA, so what’re you expecting from ’17 Moncada? Trying to decide if he’s my last in a deep keeper.

Brad Johnson: Not much MLB time, if any

Brad Johnson: It’s not like he conquered Double-A

Brad Johnson: silly of the FO to get pushed around by the manager

Brad Johnson: now they lose a player they could have protected in the Rule 5 draft

Avi: Has Kang vaulted himself back up into keeper consideration in a keep 6 league?

Brad Johnson: Keep 6 sounds light

Brad Johnson: I did grab him off the wire in a couple leagues where he’ll cost $15 and $14

Brad Johnson: but he won’t be one of my first six on those rosters either

fresh basil: Is Jose ramirez a keepable asset @10 in a 14 team mixed roto? Seems like he’s right there.

Brad Johnson: yes, I’d gamble on the production holding steady

Brad Johnson: the flex will make up for any regression

808: Do I reaaalllly start Billy Butler over McCann at DH in my AL-only points league this week?!

Brad Johnson: Ugh, I hope not

Brad Johnson: I haven’t looked at NYY matchups closely so if they’re facing a bunch of LHP…

Ombudsman: Pick up Robert Gsellman for his next two starts (vs ATL & vs PHI) and drop Luke Weaver who’s pitching tomorrow @ COL?

Brad Johnson: If you need the stats, you can, but I’m not a fan of Gsellman the starter

Pb&Js: What’s your take on Domingo Santana for the next (presumably healthy) season? What kind of full-season value would you expect?

Brad Johnson: $5-10

John: Throwin Robbie Ray V. Bal is suicide right?

Brad Johnson: Russian Roulette

Brad Johnson: O’s could hand him 14 Ks in 6 innings

Brad Johnson: or score six runs in 14 batters

CoolWinnebago: What do you think of Greg Bird and AJ Reed as buy-low 1Bs going into next year?

Brad Johnson: Love the Bird buy, but people will remember he exists before long and go back to the overhype well

Brad Johnson: Reed should be cheap

Pb&Js: Jake Lamb’s 2017 – more like 2016’s 1st or 2nd half?

Brad Johnson: Combined season

Brad Johnson: He’ll be streaky is my guess

Brad Johnson: Jay Brucey Bruce

Wadlez: Where are you drafting Trea Turner next year?

Brad Johnson: This is something I have to resolve later

Brad Johnson: I expected him to need a lot of adjustment at the MLB level

Brad Johnson: so now I have to figure out if he’s just that good or the scouting reports were just that wrong

Ricky: What is Rich Hill value next year

Brad Johnson: He’s going to be that last “stud” pitcher everybody waits to get

Brad Johnson: making him overpriced relative to his expected production

JD15: Best bet for holds rest of the way: off the DL O’Day, Tommy Layne, Treinen, Salas?

Brad Johnson: O’Day

Brad Johnson: maybe Salas

Brad Johnson: but I like O’Day most

Avi: Rockies and Reds lining up on a trade like that seems to be a poor idea.

Brad Johnson: Quoi?

Vic Romano: I think I’m in the space between. We keep 10, but there’s no limit to how long we can keep people, and no salaries or anything to consider. Pretty sure my keepers will be some combination of this group – Bryant, Rizzo, Betts, Braun, Abreu, Rendon, Russell, Mazara, Dahl, Bregman, Kershaw, Scherzer, Darvish. I feel like I’ve got a pretty strong core group there and should be competing each year for a while.

Brad Johnson: Yea that’s a tough situation then. Rendon or Bregman aren’t the only tough cuts. I will say I think Bregman may switch to SS over the offseason

Brad Johnson: something to monitor

mookie best: Hold onto Urias in a 10 team keep-3? I’d keep him in last round but he’s burning a bench spot in the finals

Brad Johnson: I can’t imagine Urias is a top keeper option in a 10 teamer, even at that price

TP for my Jung Ho: 10 team league, no CI or MI, only 3 OF. Needless to say, star players matter. Budget is $400. 3 keepers. I’m dominating this year because I spent most of my budget on stars like $100 Trout and $67 Kershaw. I think prices will adjust next year and get run up on the top players. Keep 3, $1 W Myers, $1 T Story, $1 A Bregman, $1 K Hendricks, $100 Trout, $67 Kershaw. Leaning toward Trout, Kershaw, Myers. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: Kershaw is probably a must. I really like Story. I might let Trout go under the theory you can redraft him for $100+whatever Myers would cost minus 1

Brad Johnson: If Myers is a $50 player in auction, then $1 Myers and $149 Trout is same as $100 Trout and $50 Myers

Brad Johnson: Also, that’s way too big a budget for that format/keeper rules

Guest: I love Franklin Barreto and think he could me up 5-1to my gun’s in reserves or play it safe with Brandon Drury. I love the upside of Franklin

Brad Johnson: I like Barreto more long term, but Drury is solid too

forever it: Deep dynasty league, which two would you drop of Straily, Gsellman, Lugo, Kuhl, Miguel Gonzalez, Alcantara?

Brad Johnson: Gonzalez or Alcantara

Brad Johnson: ahem and*

Brad Johnson: Gsellman in the mix too

Jacques: Villar or Pollock keeper 2017?

Brad Johnson: ooh, Villar for the position eligibilities, I think

Skittles: Should I start Alex Reyes @ChC this week?

Brad Johnson: Check the lineups. Could be the scrub team starting

Avi: Does the slow down for Betances (and the implosion last week) sort of hurt his value next year if there is no Miller/Chapman type coming?

Brad Johnson: No, hiring Jansen or Chapman hurts his value

Brad Johnson: otherwise he’s a contender for top 1 RP value

Kvn: RE the Bregman frustration: we have a rule in our league where if a player in September hasn’t played in more than a week you can reserve him as if he were a DL player, but you cant bring him back up for the remainder of the season. Helps alleviate the classic “no need to DL or demote a guy with 40 man rosters” problem.

Brad Johnson: That’s a nice adaptation

Wiggles: Better streaming option: Jon Gray @LAD, Colby Lewis @Oak, Daniel Norris @ KC?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Gray

Brad Johnson: risky of course

Brad Johnson: but they all are

Rob: What kind of pieces would you need to put on the table to acquire Trout in a fantasy trade? It’s a 14 team mixed dynasty.

Brad Johnson: Dynasty monsters. Story, Mazara, and Dahl perhaps?

Brad Johnson: A Kershaw deal if the owner needs pitching more than offense

fresh basil: Is Zunino a target for next year?can he be traded to Colorado so it’ll be a solid yes?

Brad Johnson: The HR will always be tempting, but I see him as a $1 guy outside of Only formats

JT: Start 1 at RF to win the league: Stanton, Joey Bats, or Jorge Soler.

Brad Johnson: Stanton

JT: Jordan Zimmerman. *uncontrollable sobbing*

Brad Johnson: Hey, you got more than you could have ever asked for in April/May

Brad Johnson: it’s your fault for staying on the train after the conductor told you the tracks were gone

Arnie: What position does Yuli Gurriel play for the Astros next year. It seems they like Bregman at 3rd, so where does Yuli fit and what type of player do you think he turns out to be.

Brad Johnson: He’s probably just a solid bat, maybe 110 wRC+

Brad Johnson: could fit in a corner OF or semi-platoon role like Valbuena or Marwin did for most of the year

Wiggles: Are Strasburg’s health concerns significant enough to you that you would keep a 2nd tier pitcher over him in dynasty, like a Carrasco or Hamels?

Brad Johnson: well, I don’t consider Carrasco a second tier guy

Brad Johnson: But no, I haven’t seen enough to downgrade Strasburg

Brad Johnson: yet*

Brad Johnson: There’s more info to gather yet

Avi: Well, the Reds could give Votto, but the Rockies would give what? Gray? Bettis? Hoffman? A fireman?

Brad Johnson: There’s no framework that sends Joey Votto to Coors

Joey: Final two dynasty roster slots, 10 team 3 OF league. Victor Robles, Rafael Devers, Dom Smith? Thanks!!!

Brad Johnson: Devers and Robles

Joey: In a H2H playoff in a 10-team dynasty…. I need roster flexibility to stream and spot start. Would it be crazy to drop Jake Lamb if I have Machado and Bregman for next year (plus Correa at SS, limiting Machado’s usage at SS)? Is Jake Lamb a top-100 player next season?

Brad Johnson: Yea he’s around the top 100 bubble

Brad Johnson: one of those guys who will get hype and could end up cut if he scuffles through mid-April

Brad Johnson: like Mark Trumbo in 2015

Brad Johnson: and like Mark Trumbo, scuffling is well within the realm of possibility

Brad Johnson: Your opportunity cost might be right for the cut, but I have to think you’re better long term by trading him

fresh basil: Rondon, Bedrosian, Rosenthal, Edwin Diaz, Dull, Strickland, Strop? How many do I hit on as closers next year?

Brad Johnson: I’ll put the line at 3.5

Brad Johnson: you mean at any point, right? Excluding spot saves

dave in slc: who would you rather have at a $5 bid for al only to try to rebuild for next year and take a flier? boxberger, vogelbach,moran or lind? or wait to see if sonny gray gets activated and bid on him?

Brad Johnson: woof

Brad Johnson: well not Moran

Brad Johnson: I don’t think Box gets the job back from Colome

Brad Johnson: Vogey isn’t getting tested enough for the M’s to hand him the job

Brad Johnson: Lind isn’t guaranteed to stay in the AL

Brad Johnson: might wait on Sonny

Joey: Can you share your thoughts on Devon Travis as a dynasty asset?

Brad Johnson: I’m a big Devon Travis fan, but we also have to recognize how strong 2B is right now

Brad Johnson: In a 20 team format, he may be the 20th best 2B. That still has a place as the starting MI, but it’s also someone you’re trying to upgrade

Brad Johnson: I’ll be looking for some adjustments out of him next year, specifically adding walks and cutting Ks

Brad Johnson: no reason for him to be 20% K rate and below 5% BB with his bat to ball skills

fresh basil: Why is Congrats still closing in Cincy? Not that this matters IRL but Iglesias is definitely the man for the job.

Brad Johnson: They want Iglesias to start next year

Brad Johnson: if you let him run with the CL job, he turns into Chapman, Osuna, Rosenthal, Papelbon, etc

Brad Johnson: long list of should be starters who stayed as the CL

Brad Johnson: probably Edwin Diaz next year

Joey: I need innings in a H2H playoff game. How risky is Musgrove tonight? I need a QS and otherwise need to avoid a blowup.

Brad Johnson: heh

Brad Johnson: well…

Brad Johnson: if I were to write a narrative to that game, I’d probably say “Musgrove is likely to either earn a QS or meltdown entirely”

Brad Johnson: he seems to be either on or off

Brad Johnson: not uncommon for new command guys

Avi: Does Tommy Joseph become the 2017 sleeper like Bour was supposed to be for 2016?

Brad Johnson: Sounds about right

Brad Johnson: 30-40 HR power right now with terrible plate discipline

Brad Johnson: Bour was a little more polished at the plate with much less raw power

Joey: Do you think Edwin Diaz remains in the closer role, and if not, how highly would you value him as a SP next year?

Brad Johnson: He’d be $1 flier as a SP

Brad Johnson: I’d expect him to spend most of the season pitching in Triple-A

Brad Johnson: There’s a very good chance they leave him as the closer instead

Brad Johnson: especially since teams will pay a steep bounty for elite RP now, there’s less incentive to develop SP if you already have a full rotation

Kvn: Thinking of David Ortiz: how often are you in a situation where you would LOVE to keep a guy next season but you cant because he’s retiring?

Brad Johnson: Rarely, I tend to not end up with many old guys

mookie best: Thx for the advice this season.

Brad Johnson: *bows

HomebrewJ: Any early standouts for dynasty first year prospect drafts next year?

Brad Johnson: Nick Senzel, Lourdes Gurriel spring to mind

Brad Johnson: I’d have to do some homework, my deepest dynasty let’s us pick up anybody. Prospects are usually taken as 15 year olds

Pomeranz: What value does Mallex Smith have in an NL only for next season? Do SB’s alone make him worth $15?

Brad Johnson: $15 might be steep considering I don’t see an obvious starting role for him

Brad Johnson: A lot can change, but Kemp, Ender, and Markakis seemingly have the starting spots on lock

Bob: Need to pick 8 keepers from – Posey, Rizzo, Bergman, Kipnis, Cutch, Braun, sCespedes, Desmond, Dahl, MadBum, Carrasco, Archer. Thoughts 5×5 roto

Brad Johnson: Without putting too much thought into it, my first instinct is Rizzo, Dahl, Kipnis, MadBum, Braun, Cespedes, Bergman, SP

Brad Johnson: probably prefer Carrasco

Pomeranz: would you keep lorenzen in an NL only for $1?

Brad Johnson: Depends on the opportunity cost of that spot

Brad Johnson: Lorenzen is a solid $1 gamble, but I imagine there are dozens of similar picks

Pomeranz: Reyes and Deleon each worth $7 in an NL only next year?

Brad Johnson: Oh yes

The Kid: First year in a keeper format (10tm, keep 5). In this shallow of a format I am having trouble deciding whether it is worth keeping someone like Bryant at $32+, Blackmon at $20+, Seager at $20+, or some combination of Pollock $7, Polanco $7, Mazara $5, Dahl $2, Hanley $1. What are your thoughts?

Brad Johnson: This is a nice meaty question

Brad Johnson: In this case, your cheap options are also very attractive

Brad Johnson: I’d usually suggest playing it safe with the elite talents

Brad Johnson: and it’s really hard to swallow parting with the more expensive guys because they’re such great discounts

Brad Johnson: I’d go Bryant, Blackmon, Seager, Dahl, and Pollock/Polanco

Arnie: Do you think the White Sox trade Robertson and make Nate Jones their closer next year?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: they need more bullpen depth, not less

JD15: Over the offseason thinking about selling high on JBJ and Fulmer. Thoughts on both of them heading into next season? Am I right to try and sell or am I just biased bc of how they have performed since August?

Brad Johnson: nothing wrong with selling high. Just so long as you actually receive the high return

Brad Johnson: too often, I see people cite selling high to justify really bad trades

Brad Johnson: To use an extreme example, trading Fulmer for Eickhoff is NOT selling high

Snowflake: How much has this season’s performance hurt Bryce’s value going into next season? Is he still a no brainer first rounder? There’s no question you keep him at $26 over Murphy at $11 right?

Brad Johnson: He’s on the 1st round bubble for me

Brad Johnson: that’s mostly a matter of other guys playing exceptionally well

Brad Johnson: 12 teams fwiw

Brad Johnson: And yes, I keep him over Murphy’s career season

Moltar: Crashed out in the semi-finals so I will not repeat as league champ Just wanted to say thank you for the help and for answering my questions throughout the season. You and the RG team are the real MVPs!

Moltar: Better keeper at the minimum (12tm h2h keep 6), Bregman or Sanchez?

Brad Johnson: Assuming 1 C league, Bregman

Brad Johnson: Assuming 2 C league, probably still Bregman

Brad Johnson: but it’s closer if you need 2 because Sanchez should bat just about every day

Brad Johnson: that’s huge if you can get two guys like that

fresh basil: If Braun goes to LA this offsets on it has to affect his value going into the draft right? Thinking he drops a few bucks.

Brad Johnson: Lineup effects probably make up for the change in venue

Brad Johnson: though I do dock a couple $ from anybody changing teams

Cybo: Trying to decide on some keepers. 12 team h2h with ops and qs. Trying to decide between..

Brad Johnson: I’d take him over the other guy

Brad Johnson:

Pomeranz: Polanco a $30 player next year?

Brad Johnson: In the right context. I’m looking at him more as a $20-25 guy

Brad Johnson: his numbers improved, but so did everyone else

Pomeranz: Who do yo prefer for 2017 in an NL. Both at $34 Strasburg or DeGrom?

Brad Johnson: Strasburg for now, pending more news on both of them

John: I made a bet pre-injury that Pollock would end the season with more fantasy points than Miggy. Had he stayed healthy, you think I had a shot?

Brad Johnson: Oh yea

Brad Johnson: I was the guy considering Pollock a borderline top 6 pick

Brad Johnson: I was convinced

Snowflake: I can only keep 1 of Gary Sanchez, Dahl, Bregman, or Villar. I’m a Yankees fan and Sanchez has been unbelievable. I should just pick him and be happy right

Brad Johnson: Really, just one?

Brad Johnson: I think you’re going to hate walking away from Dahl at that price

Brad Johnson: or Villar

The Kid: RE: meaty question: So Bryant will be $38, Seager $24, Blackmon $26. Their price increases are based on ESPN’s oWAR calculator. Does that change anything? Considering Pollock’s, Polanco’s, and Mazara’s prices will have increased considerably less.

Brad Johnson: Not really. They’re still underpriced

Brad Johnson: I try to keep the best talents

The Kid: I’m just so attached to Pollock and Polanco

Brad Johnson: Hey, if you love them, go with your gut

Buck: So I just started playing some Yahoo daily fantasy with $2 that I won in a free contest, and I’m already up to $20. Do you think I’ll collect my first million from winnings or the book deal I’ll undoubtedly get based on my hot start?

Brad Johnson: FanGraphs gets 10% of that, right?

Cybo: Trying to decide on some keepers for 2017. Was hoping for your opinion. 12 team h2h with ops and qs keep 7. Keeping Stanton, Votto, and Story for sure. After them which 4 do you like best of Piscotty, Dahl, Benintendi, J Bell, Mazara, Sano, D Travis, and Cueto.

Brad Johnson: Dahl, Benintendi, Sano and either Mazara or Piscotty

Brad Johnson: depending on how amped up for 2017 you want to go

Cheese: Is Rick Porcello a keeper at $2 in mixed 12 team, keep 12?

Brad Johnson: yes

Brad Johnson: could be bumped on certain rosters, but he’s an easy $10-15 guy next year

Boris: Can I count on Ryon Healy ROS? Keeper worthy?

Brad Johnson: Yes and yes in the right format

Brad Johnson: ok wrapping up. We’re pretty much out of questions anyway!

JT: My keep forever starting 2B: Gordon, Cano, Rendon or Swanson?

Brad Johnson: Rendon if you want best production over 5 years

Brad Johnson: Gordon or Cano if you’re focused on the next 2

Brad Johnson: Swanson if you want to reach beyond 5 years at the expense of the next 2

Bobby: Think Keon Broxton’s season is a fluke? Worth keeping in mixed leagues?

Brad Johnson: Mostly

Brad Johnson: some real stuff there, but the big K rate is scary

Cybo: Ps- also have Ryon and J Lamb. Either of them keepers for you over Dahl, Benintendi, Sano, or Piscotty/Mazara?

Brad Johnson: Ooh, I might keep one of them over the latter pair

Brad Johnson: will need more analysis

Sean: 12 team, keep 8, extra categories bb, k, OBP, SLG, xbh. Correa or Goldschmidt for the next 5 years? no position concerns

Brad Johnson: Goldy

Rich: Where do you see Verlander as a keeper next year? Would you keep him over someone like Carrasco or Price? He’s looked great and throwing 97 again, but there are tons of miles on that arm.

Brad Johnson: He’s in the same bucket

Brad Johnson: the smart money is on Carrasco or Price to be better than him next year, but it’s not a crazy bet

JT: Margot Robbie in Suicide Squad or Zoe Saldana in Guardians?

Brad Johnson: Robbie

fresh basil: Have Trout, Polanco, piscotty, jup, Benintendi for a total of $64 for OFers in a 260 league. Hate to have all my OF spots taken going in but I think it’s a solid cheap crew.

JohnnyFive: Is Danny Salazar worth keeping at $22? Seems like such a crapshoot with his electric, inconsistent arm.

Brad Johnson: Watch the news on Salazar, if there’s any doubt to his health – and there almost certainly will be – I might divest

Brad Johnson: Last one…

The Kid: To get a better idea of your overall strategy, how do evaluate keeper value when it comes to keeper prices and predicted auction value? Is it a ratio or a simple difference? E.g. Bryant costs $45 at auction next year, but I could keep him for $38. So there is a perceived price increase ratio of about 1.2 and a price differential of about $7. Whereas Polanco may go for $19 next year but I could keep him for about $10, so ratio of ~1.5 and difference of $9. Obviously positional scarcity, etc. need to be considered, but your thoughts are always appreciated. I like winning.

Brad Johnson: Honestly, years of experience have taught me that this approach leads to broken rosters. If I try to anticipate prices, I’m inevitably wrong and way off target by mid-draft

Brad Johnson: The key to fantasy baseball is maximizing elite talent

Brad Johnson: if you have elite players, keep them and hope you get the $1 Storys and Villars later

Brad Johnson: hanging onto $5 mid-tier guys just so you can be one of 8 owners to fight over Clayton Kershaw’s rights is a tough racket

Brad Johnson: Good game folks

Brad Johnson: We’ll see about next week’s chat. Check the Daily Grind next Tuesday