Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 5/17
Here’s the transcript of today’s chat. Lot’s of fun topics.
1:14 |
: Brandon Drury, Danny Valencia?
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1:14 |
: What are you looking to accomplish? Valencia has more power and bats cleanup. Drury a better pure hitter
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1:15 |
: Yelich for Matz and Stroman. What side do you like? Only issue would be that I would need to find a SS off of waivers to replace Segura (Crawford/Semien are top options).
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1:15 |
: Not sure I understand where the SS comes in
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1:15 |
: But that’s a fine trade if you need pitching
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1:15 |
: if you don’t, then it’s unnecessary
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1:16 |
: Should I trade
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1:16 |
: Sure
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1:16 |
: Thoughts on Billy Hamilton? Will he OBP enough to even be a worth bench option?
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1:16 |
: I’ve said all along, he’s so hard to manage
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1:16 |
: but if his cost is down to mostly free, he’s worth the headache
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1:16 |
: What could I get for Duda in a 10-team dynasty?
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1:17 |
: Not very much. A bottom 10 closer, top 5 non-closer, John Lackey-type SP
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1:17 |
: Is Grichuk ok?
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1:18 |
: I think so, expectations were WAY too high entering the season. He’s a nice player with upside but everybody treated him as actualized
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1:18 |
: Ken Giles is floating around in the free agent pool of my AL-only league right now. Should I be running out to grab him immediately?
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1:18 |
: I don’t think you have to run. If you have a natural spot for him, he’s a solid stash
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1:18 |
: How done is Prince Fielder? I was offered Porcello for him in a 12 team OPS league, but I can’t make myself pull the trigger.
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1:19 |
: I was so happy for the dead cat bounce in my dynasty league last year. Turned him into three useful players
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1:19 |
: I think his goose is cooked. Look at Carlos Lee for how his body type usually ages
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1:19 |
: in short, rapidly
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1:20 |
: So my offense is awesome, auction league 2h2 (Harper, Machado, Cespedes, Ortiz, etc…) but my pitching is atrocious (Scherzer, Keuchel, Archer, Mcchugh, Gausman). Should I just punt the pitching ratios and chase Ks and QS and trade Max for more hitting?
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1:20 |
: No, dump McHugh, find a buyer for Gausman (somebody in your league likes him more than they should), and shop the two broken aces
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1:21 |
: but you probably hang onto Keuchel and Archer
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1:21 |
: try to rehabilitate the pitching
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1:21 |
: time to pull the plug on Rusell Martin? OBP league… Any love for Wieters, Cervelli, Montero, Derek Norris, Satly, Wolters (for the speed?)
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1:22 |
: I’m a huge Cervelli fan. He’s a top 5? 8? C
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1:22 |
: He’s near the top in any case
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1:22 |
: Thoughts on Ian Kinsler rest of the season? Top 5 2B in mixed leagues?
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1:22 |
: If healthy, he’s near the top of the pile. So many good 2B though that health will be a big factor
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1:23 |
: I got until 6 pm CST to make the swap – 1 Start McCullers (TEX) or 2-start Miley (BAL & CIN)? QS/ERA/WHIP/K
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1:23 |
: *cringe*
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1:23 |
: is neither an option?
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1:23 |
: if not, I guess Miley is the only answer. Might get a QS or two
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1:23 |
: McCullers probably doesn’t throw more than 5+ IP
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1:24 |
: Hey Brad, Who are a few of the minors hitters that you are stashing for MLB roles before ASB? Please do not include the Astros.
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1:25 |
: My home league (12 team mixed, 30 player rosters, 7 BN) has Dansby Swanson, Andrew Benintendi, Reed, and Bregman.
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1:25 |
: So I didn’t follow instructions and included Astros
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1:25 |
: not sure why you’d leave them out, they’re going to supply a bunch of the top pre-ASB talent
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1:25 |
: Glasnow, Taillon, and Brault in PIT
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1:26 |
: Got any really deep dynasty sleepers?
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1:26 |
: I sure do, but I can’t get into that at chat pace
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1:27 |
: I published a column on RotoBaller yesterday with a few unusual names
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1:27 |
: not prospects so much as post-post-hype guys
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1:27 |
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1:27 |
: Sano + what = Kris Bryant in dynasty. Or is that a toss up
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1:28 |
: With the way Sano is hitting, there are now some serious questions about his future. It would have to be a substantial piece.
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1:28 |
: Perhaps Jake Odorizzi, Cody Allen, or Joe Panik
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1:29 |
: to give some examples
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1:29 |
: Drew Smyly or Drew Pomeranz ROS?
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1:29 |
: Smyly though I hate his matchups
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1:29 |
: Is Keuchel cooked? Deal him for DesClafani and Sandy Alcantara?
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1:29 |
: You can do better
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1:29 |
: the peripherals are still solid
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1:29 |
: Why so high on Cevelli? Yes his OBP is nice for OBP leagues but even in those leagues his lack of category juice is frustrating.
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1:29 |
: He has run and RBI opportunities too and his HR total won’t be terrible for the position
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1:30 |
: as long as he’s batting 5th, he’s a good C
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1:30 |
: Do you like Hahn tonight against TEX at home?
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1:30 |
: Hard no. I’m running away from Hahn for now
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1:30 |
: What are your thoughts on Aaron Judge’s fantasy value with the yanks offense being so bad/injured?
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1:30 |
: I already had doubts he’d make enough contact to contribute this year. Without a supporting cast, there’s too much pressure on him
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1:31 |
: How much more valuable is trout over mookie (fantasy) considering the scarcity of steals?
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1:31 |
: Hard to quantify with 20 seconds of thought
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1:31 |
: I’d say Trout’s worth Betts plus an extra top 60-80 player.
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1:32 |
: Heyward and Hamels a good offer for Stanton? It’s a dynasty where you loose players if they hit FA (won’t have to worry about that with Stanton till ’27) Keep adding?
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1:32 |
: Seems light, especially if your rival is responsive to slow starts
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1:32 |
: Thoughts on Puig? Try to trade and get something bc of name value or just hold tight? I know he won’t be this bad ROS, but seems like his name gives him more value
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1:32 |
: I’d go for the trade. Since he doesn’t hit HR or steal bases, his fantasy value was always overstated
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1:32 |
: Should I believe in estrada
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1:33 |
: Do you really need to?
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1:33 |
: ooh, I was just offered Daz Cameron and Corey Dickerson for Phillip Ervin and Tyler O’Neill in dynasty
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1:34 |
: I was trying to deal Ervin/O’Neill/X for Starling Marte. Let’s crowdsource my next move
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1:34 |
: Hosmer+Heyward+Lackey for C. Davis+Duda+Pineda. Which side do you want? I’m in desperate need of HR and RBI in a roto league? Do it?
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1:34 |
: Davis please
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1:34 |
: Melvin Upton becoming mixed league material?
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1:35 |
: yea but you don’t need to force open a spot. If you need somebody, he’s there
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1:35 |
: If Kang will net me something like Pillar and Carlos Martinez, is it worth trading him in a 10 player keeper? Or did I suffer though his DL stint so now I should enjoy his play?
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1:35 |
: Unless you’re dying at SS, I’d probably do that.
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1:35 |
: Was offered Marco Estrada for Luke Gregerson. Unless you believe Colome keeps the job, that leaves me with just Jefferess. But I really need the pitching help. Thoughts?
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1:36 |
: Has to be better options than Estrada
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1:36 |
: Do you think the Phillies put Neris in at closer at any point this season?
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1:36 |
: Yep. Him or Hernandez
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1:36 |
: How many saves do you think Cingrani finishes with this year? How many for Jumbo Diaz?
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1:36 |
: 10 apiece?
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1:36 |
: I am crossing my fingers that Swanson comes up at 2B – think there’s a higher chance than with Albies because he used to play there. What say you?\
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1:36 |
: I’m hearing he’s more likely to be the SS. Albies might be a super UTIL guy
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1:36 |
: Who would you drop for Taillon among Liriano, Lackey, Teheran, Jaime Garcia?
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1:37 |
: I’d drop Teheran
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1:37 |
: even if he keeps pitching OK, he’ll win what? 3 games?
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1:37 |
: Sam Dyson gonna run away with this thing?
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1:37 |
: I hope so. I’ve been a fan of his since his final Marlins season
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1:37 |
: deep mixed league…move archer to get odor (i have pretty good SP w/o Arch)…value fair?
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1:37 |
: Yea, I think that’s reasonable
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1:38 |
: but…if you wait to see if he’s suspended 15 games, you might get a better deal
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1:38 |
: Is Adam Duvall better than expected?
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1:38 |
: No, this is roughly expected behavior out of him. The move to Cincinnati was a huge boon for him as a fantasy target
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1:38 |
: E. Suarez or A. Russell rst of this year only? is it close?
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1:38 |
: Suarez for me
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1:39 |
: some would say it’s close. I don’t
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1:39 |
: Should I trade for correa since he is a nice sell low candidate
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1:39 |
: Nothing wrong with the second best SS in baseball
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1:40 |
: now that Machado is a SS almost everywhere again
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1:40 |
: What ranking would you give A.J. Reed among 1B for next year? 1B is deep so top 5 seems silly, but top 10?
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1:40 |
: top 20? He hasn’t even mastered Triple-A yet so let’s not get out of hand
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1:40 |
: Pineda and McHugh droppable in deep 10 team dynasty (40 man rosters) or are they spot start worthy? I have Thor, Salazar, J.Garcia, Taijuan, Wacha, Pomeranz, Conley, Gausman.
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1:40 |
: McHugh is
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1:40 |
: hang onto Pineda
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1:40 |
: a hot streak plus his name value could return a nice player
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1:40 |
: Conforto or Wil Myers for the ROS? Myers w/ the injury risk, and Conforto w/ the inability to hit LHP
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1:41 |
: Conforto and a platoon caddy?
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1:41 |
: Do you think Corey Knebel is the Brewers closer once the trade deadline passes?
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1:41 |
: Will Smith I think. Missing most of the season will hurt his trade value too much to deal him at the deadline
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1:41 |
: When do you think Nick Williams will get called up by the Phillies?
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1:41 |
: 2017.5
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1:42 |
: Shallow 10-teamer, and my team is stacked and no one I wanna cut. Okay strategy to just take the zero for Odor’s 2B slot for the duration of his suspension?
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1:42 |
: It hurts but sometimes you have to do it
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1:42 |
: the thing about shallow leagues is you always think your end of roster guys are can’t cut
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1:42 |
: they’re usually fungible
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1:43 |
: Whose stats would you rather have for the rest of the year in an NL only 5×5 non-keeper league: Kazmir or Jimmy Nelson?
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1:43 |
: well this is tricky
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1:43 |
: I like Nelson more overall, but for various reasons I expect Kazmir to finish with better numbers
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1:43 |
: Houston closer? Will Harris soon
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1:43 |
: Gregerson will be fine
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1:44 |
: Bauer or De la Rosa?
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1:44 |
: push
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1:44 |
: go with your gut, same high risk/low reward asset class
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1:44 |
: Should I have any concerns over Smyly’s workload going into Aug and Sept?
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1:44 |
: possibly, but you can play it by ear
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1:45 |
: the Rays usually pull pitchers early so I doubt he’ll be overworked
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1:45 |
: I’m trading trout for arenando and Polanco is that
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1:45 |
: I’d do it if I had a gaping wound at 3B
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1:45 |
: I stashed Mazara, Schwarber, Conforto and Matz last year, I’ve got Crawford, Tallion, Glasnow, Alex Reyes, and Wilson Contreras stashed now. Will I be solid for years since I already have Machado and Donaldson with a strong supporting cast? This is a 10 man dynasty
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1:46 |
: Show off. You already know the answer
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1:46 |
: Best 2016 SS stash? Bregman, Swanson, Albies?
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1:46 |
: Swanson
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1:46 |
: Bregman a close second
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1:46 |
: Albies a very very distant third
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1:46 |
: not even on the same continent for fantasy production
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1:46 |
: Does Khris Davis offer anything other than streaky HR production?
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1:46 |
: No
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1:46 |
: I’m trying to trade for Altuve, but until then I cannot decide which 2b is better. Schoop, Pearce, Dietrich, Baez, Duffy or Panik??
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1:46 |
: Panik
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1:47 |
: Lucroy for Nola in a redraft – fair?
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1:47 |
: Yea. I’d rather have the longer track record of Lucroy
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1:47 |
: Is Josh Tomlin anything more than a streamer?
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1:47 |
: No.
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1:47 |
: When does Renfroe get the call?
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1:48 |
: I’m not really convinced he’ll hit in the majors. I suppose we’ll see soon because the Padres have move on from the scrublords eventually
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1:48 |
: after the super-2 cutoff
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1:48 |
: Michael Wacha worth holding on to in shallower formats?
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1:48 |
: Mostly, subject to constraints
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1:48 |
: What your comp or prediction for Mazara ? Have a chance to get him in dynasty and don’t read a lot about him.
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1:49 |
: Huge Mazara fan. Hard to get a clean comp because he doesn’t run
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1:49 |
: Honestly, he really doesn’t specifically remind me of anyone
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1:49 |
: But he’ll be a huge #3 hitter for a decade
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1:50 |
: Will Glasnow and ERod save my pitching staff of S Gray, Conley, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez or do I need to make a trade?
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1:50 |
: No. ERod is having trouble getting back on track and Glasnow could have command issues in the majors
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1:50 |
: Who do you think is the better backup closer to hold on the Padres in an NL only league for this year: Maurer or Buchter?
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1:50 |
: Maurer
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1:51 |
: Our league heavily discounts pitching 6×6, h2h, 12 teams with (R/HR/RBI/SB/OBP/SLG and QS/K/HLD/SV/ERA/WHIP) In such a case, trading damaged aces seems impossible unless you really like Lucas Duda, how should we change cats to normalize for next year?
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1:51 |
: This seems like a feature rather than a bug
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1:51 |
: if you want SP/POS closer in value, you need to give SP more categories. Switching to a normal 5×5 without holds would do the trick
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1:52 |
: or you could do W and QS in a 7×7
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1:53 |
: with some kind of fringy offensive stat that the Trouts of the world don’t produce
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1:53 |
: the 5×5 route is cleaner
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1:53 |
: i like to imagine you played for the vikings. did you? if no, can i keep thinking it anyway?
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1:53 |
: I can’t escape it….
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1:53 |
: Who has better rest of season value, Puig or Soler?
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1:53 |
: Puig
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1:53 |
: Stash Glasnow over Conley, Hammell, or Wood. Already have Urias. I otherwise have Scherzer, Strasberg, Kluber, Smyly, McCuller, and Iglesias on DL
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1:53 |
: Yes to Wood
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1:53 |
: Anything wrong with Ben Revere?
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1:54 |
: He missed a bunch of time and he was always a fringy hitter
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1:54 |
: he’ll get his timing together by the end of June
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1:54 |
: Drop Vogt for Cervelli? H2H points league
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1:54 |
: I would. Vogt’s solid too though
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1:55 |
: Cain and Jackie Bradley for deGrom? If I lose the hitters, I start Pearce and Jhonny when he comes back. deGrom replaces Yordano. Who wins?
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1:55 |
: Too much for deGrom
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1:55 |
: Cain alone is more than fair
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1:55 |
: Prediction for an Alex Reyes callup? If it happens this year, would it be as a starter or reliever?
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1:55 |
: hard to say with him missing time. Let’s give it a month
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1:55 |
: Relatively low price, consistent QS guy to go after? Hendricks, Porcello?
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1:55 |
: Porcello’s a good one
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1:55 |
: Hendricks doesn’t his 6 IP often enough
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1:56 |
: Hammel and Lackey though
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1:56 |
: Teheran
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1:56 |
: Garcia
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1:56 |
: Colon is the super cheap option
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1:57 |
: Time to trade Ventura for whatever I can get? He can look so dominant and so brutal in the same inning. Sucks cause I love rooting for the small guy
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1:57 |
: I’ve had to drop him
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1:57 |
: Would you give up Altuve for Giancarlo and B Phillips? In need of power, good on speed
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1:57 |
: Given your stated needs, yes
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1:57 |
: Thoughts on Trea Turner? Set at 2b, but wondering if I should still grab in shallow keeper
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1:57 |
: He’s overhyped as a prospect. He’ll be a solid big leaguer without a ton of fantasy value
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1:58 |
: all average and SBs
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1:58 |
: and the average is uncertain
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1:58 |
: and if he’s not hitting leadoff, that’s all he’ll do
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1:58 |
: Any chance Jarred Cosart has NL only value again this year?
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1:58 |
: There’s a chance. I don’t like the odds though
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1:58 |
: I am in dire need of SP, 12 team redraft league, and have Glasnow, Giolito, and Taillon all stashed on my bench. Any hope at least one of the 3 contribute? Is Giolito droppable because he is not on the 40-man roster? Urias a better stash?
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1:58 |
: Do swap Urias and Giolito
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1:59 |
: the 40-man thing isn’t the problem, he’s gone backwards this year
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1:59 |
: even without the swap, I’d bet on at least one to be studly in the second half
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1:59 |
: D Valencia or B Drury ros?
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2:00 |
: The problem with chats is that nobody reads the output…
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2:00 |
1:14 What are you looking to accomplish? Valencia has more power and bats cleanup. Drury a better pure hitter |
2:00 |
: That was the very first question I responded to
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2:00 |
: Traded Prince and street for Freeman in a dynasty league. Howd I do?
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2:00 |
: fantastically
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2:00 |
: Devon Travis or Kolten Wong ROS 5×5 h2h OBP league?
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2:00 |
: Travis
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2:01 |
: Only because Wong seems destined to lose time to Diaz
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2:01 |
: If you were building a team to compete in 3+ years, which players currently outside of the top 10 or so in their position would you be targeting?
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2:01 |
: This hurts my soul. I consulted for a league that rostered over 1,600 players. I would never advocate looking three years in the future
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2:02 |
: there’s always a shorter path to contention
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2:02 |
: Thoughts on Grandal ROS?
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2:02 |
: He’s very good
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2:02 |
: Waino just hit WW. Totally cooked or am improvement over Conley?
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2:02 |
: He may be cooked. How much do you need numbers from that spot? Can you leave it fallow or do you need production?
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2:02 |
: if it can be fallow, speculate on Waino
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2:02 |
: Duda and Carlos Gomez were dropped in my league. Either worthy to be picked up at this point?
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2:02 |
: Duda is
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2:03 |
: Yasmani Grandal or Yan Gomes?
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2:03 |
: Grandal
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2:03 |
: Sooner ETA Gallo or Brinson? more upside?
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2:03 |
: Gallo is on the 40-man but hurt
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2:03 |
: Brinson may need another year+ to be fully ready
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2:03 |
: I bet we see very little of either this year
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2:03 |
: Brinson has the higher upside
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2:03 |
: real world, anyway
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2:04 |
: There’s a scenario where Gallo is a 60 HR threat, so I guess he’s technically higher upside
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2:04 |
: Kole Calhoun seems a very different hitter this year- do you foresee a power spike and/or an AVG decline? Would you rather have Calhoun or Reddick for the rest of the season?
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2:05 |
: Reddick. I haven’t looked closely at Calhoun yet because I don’t have any shares and his team is un-DFSable
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2:05 |
: In his last 5 starts, Rubby De La Rosa has faced PIT, STL, MIA, COL (in COL!), and SFG and given up 1 or 0 runs in 4 of those games. 33/10 K/BB and 46/39 GB/FB. Are you buying?
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2:05 |
: Tentatively. As a guy who can shut down strong lineups and flop against the Braves
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2:05 |
: I prefer my spot starters to be predictable
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2:05 |
: When does Jay Bruce get traded?
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2:05 |
: late June, early July
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2:05 |
: Do the Rockies trade Mcgee? Who takes over?
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2:06 |
: Probably. There are a few candidates.
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2:07 |
: I think they like Carlos Estevez
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2:07 |
: and Adam Ottavino is working his way back from TJS
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2:07 |
: What kind of impact do you expect Bregman to have when he gets called up? Trying to see if I should scoop him in my AL-only today during my weekly FA bidding!
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2:08 |
: Substantial. The issue is when he’ll be called up
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2:08 |
: he’ll be good once he’s here
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2:08 |
: depends on Colin Moran’s performance. Valbuena might be getting back on track too
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2:08 |
: Any news/predictions for when Aaron Altherr will be back in an MLB game?
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2:08 |
: Nothing new, probably very little, if anything this season
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2:09 |
: Cain for Archer better? Would you feel comfortable putting Pearce in your lineup every week?
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2:09 |
: Not really (re: Pearce). Given Archer’s struggles, I’d rate him comparably to Nola
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2:09 |
: Cain for Nola fair in 10-team dynasty?
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2:09 |
: Ish
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2:09 |
: Still prefer the bat
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2:10 |
: In shallow keeper, keep 10 forever, would you trade Xander and Mazara for Price, Hamels and Gregerson? Have Correa too, but hate to give up Xander
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2:10 |
: Are you trying to ensure a victory this year? Because those are two huge keepers you’d be dumping
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2:10 |
: YUGE
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2:10 |
: My minor league system includes Trea Turner, Jorge Mateo, and JP Crawford. Regarding fantasy, do you think Crawford will be most relevant? Should I try to sell on Turner hype?
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2:10 |
: yea I agree with this
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2:10 |
: Who gets here first: Taillon or Glasnow? Have both stashed but might need to drop one for a pos player.
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2:11 |
: I think Taillon gets the first call. Could be close to simultaneous
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2:11 |
: When does Giolito come up? Late summer or an injury?
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2:11 |
: Injury
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2:11 |
: two injuries maybe
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2:11 |
: What should I try to get for Albies in a dynasty? Seems his value while in the minors couldn’t get higher?
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2:12 |
: if you were in my league, I’d say a top 3 closer, top 25 SP, or a top 75 hitter. We’re 900 players deep. If you’re shallower, you get less.
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2:13 |
: Will Buxton get called up before July..August…?
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2:13 |
: At this point, I see no reason to promote him until he’s murdering Triple-A. He has a 150 wRC+ now but it’s mostly BABIP. He needs to do even better
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2:13 |
: Traded Lester, C. Carter, and Wacha for Adam Jones and Cespedes. How did I do?
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2:13 |
: Solid. I’d hand you the win on that one
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2:14 |
: I have only one DL spot in a 12-team 5×5 H2H mixed redraft with shallow benches. Who do I drop between Raisel Iglesias and Carlos Gomez?
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2:14 |
: Gomez? Both?
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2:14 |
: Both
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2:14 |
: What’s Wilmer Flores’ value in a keeper league?
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2:14 |
: almost nothing
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2:14 |
: or nothing
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2:14 |
: he’s just WIlmer Flores
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2:14 |
: Matt Bush, closer in waiting, or are we getting ahead of ourselves?
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2:14 |
: way ahead
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2:15 |
: I swear the Rangers have 10 closers in their system
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2:15 |
: ok, one or two more, I’ll scroll to the end
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2:15 |
: Better stash Snell or Urias -keeper league
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2:15 |
: I love Snell, but Urias is looking like a monster
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2:16 |
: Ever play Imagine Sports historical simulation baseball?
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2:16 |
: I play in a Sim league (currently 2005 season), but not that specific one
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2:16 |
: better trio: Machado 3B Bogaerts SS Yelich OF or Machado SS Donaldson 3B Heyward OF?
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2:16 |
: Donaldson
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2:16 |
: Story for Urias and Odubel in a keeper?
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2:17 |
: Reasonable for both sides subject to opportunity cost
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2:17 |
: Is Joe Musgrove a future ace?
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2:17 |
: No, but he’ll be fantasy relevant
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2:17 |
: Thanks for playing everyone! See you next week.
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