Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 4/26/16

Matt: My rotation this season is was supposed to be headlined by Greinke &Waino. I’m currently pooping my pants. Should I not be doing that yet?

Brad Johnson: I do think they’ll recover, but the damage is already done. You’ll need to get lucky streaming high end relievers to make up for it

Dr. Met: Schoop or Wong, which 2B can dig out of his early season struggles?

Brad Johnson: I’ll guess Wong. There’s more to his skill set than swinging very hard.

JCNY: Is this Porcello fool’s gold? I’m debating dropping some OF depth to grab him to bolster my staff. Yahoo H2H categories.

Brad Johnson: Porcello made some pitch usage adjustments late last year. No reason he can’t sustain those and remain useful. He won’t be a stud or anything, but he could win a bunch of games with decent rates

Thor: Adding a pitcher off the wire for the long haul. Any of Hughes, Erasmo, Nelson, Latos, Wisler, Hill, Bailey, Graveman jump out as a good long term play?

Brad Johnson: No, they’re all streaming options.

Vic: I invested in Greinke on 4 of my teams. Should I sell all 4 at the reduced rate, keep 2 and hold 2, or hold all 4? At this point, I would be happy if Greinke finished with a 3.50 ERA and 180 Ks. What say you?

Brad Johnson: Shop him as those nothing went wrong. Somebody might view it as “buying low” and overpay

Brad Johnson: as though*

Biyombo: With d’Arnaud likely heading to the dl which one of these guys do you like for now/ros : Vogt, Gomes, Castillo, Saltalmacchia, or Molina

Brad Johnson: Molina if you don’t want to play mix and match. Otherwise, I like a platoon of Vogt, Gomes, Castillo based on matchups. Could get the #2 catcher by switching between them.

Joc Pederson: Is my early-season surge for real, or are my 33% K-rate, my lower z-swing % and my higher o-swing % harbingers of my impending doom?

Brad Johnson: Doom may be overstating it. Regression will occur where you expect it to

Macho: Twelve team, 10 player keeper. I was offered Buxton for Baez. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: Guessing neither finish the year as a keeper. Baez seems more likely to do something this year. Buxton’s still has the higher ceiling although the massive strikeout problem is disconcerting

Vic: Any sense of the Reds’ closer situation?

Brad Johnson: Ugh.

Brad Johnson: Cingrani and Cotham for now. Somebody else later

shoop-de-oop: hold tight with Shoop or go with Panik? 2B landscape pretty sparse…

Brad Johnson: Panik for sure. He’s been better than Schoop all along. Only category he doesn’t have on Schoop is HR

I did it all for the Mookie: What is up with Mookie Betts in 2016? He has gone all Adam Jones in plate discipline (20.9% K, 3.3% BB). Is this just some weirdness from every pitcher working him away to start 2016?

Brad Johnson: Yea, we’ll see some adjustments. He was a little shaky at the start of last year too then figured it out

Scott: I’m punting Coors in my cash game today, stupid or brilliant?

Brad Johnson: I almost always punt Coors, but I play GPPs

Brad Johnson: they just cost too much.

Brad Johnson: You have a choice between the aces and the Coors hitters. I prefer the aces today

Brad Johnson: they’ll probably both go off

Mr. Wrestling IV: Severino was just dropped. Would you drop Samardzija/Odorizzi/Chen/Nola to pick him up?

Brad Johnson: Chen

John: Hey Brad, assuming d’Arnaud finds his way to the DL, who do you like best as a waiver wire stopgap (14 team OBP league)? Gomes, Hundley or Montero?

Brad Johnson: I’d like to mix and match them if possible

Cody S: 15 team 5×5 Roto – Someone dropped H Iwakuma… how much of a $100 FAAB budget would you bid on him where pitching is scarce?

Brad Johnson: $5? $3? He should be pretty cheap.

Vic: Please rank in terms of saves futures: Zych, Lowe, May.

Brad Johnson: You’ve got it already

I did it all for the Mookie: Will Khris Davis commence with the Khrushing some time soon?

Brad Johnson: He’s a streaky one. He’ll get there

Matt: Lorenzo Cain – is this evidence that his (probably unrepeatable to *that* level) 2015 was an anomaly, or just a slow start?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take a closer look now, bear with me

Brad Johnson: Don’t know why his contact rate has disappeared, I’ll call it a fluke or injury for now

Brad Johnson: I’m skipping ahead on comments, sorry if you get skipped

AJ Reed: The call-ups are continuing. Jose Berrios got called up today. With Tyler White in a 3-36 slump, is my time coming soon?

Brad Johnson: Let’s not panic about White just yet. I think Reed will get his reps from someone else

Brad Johnson: Maybe still 1.5 months?

Zip Planter: Alex Gordon: droppable in 12 teamers?

Brad Johnson: In 3 OFers sure. In 5, hold onto him

Gavin: Does Rajai Davis keep playing everyday and leading off with Brantley back? He’s played well! That could be some dirt-cheap speed off my wire.

Brad Johnson: He’ll play most days for now. He’s performing and there’s a spot for him

Jacob deGrom: Everyone keeps saying they’re worried about me, I think I’ll be fine.

Brad Johnson: He’s a good pitcher. We’ll have to wait and see.

Shin-soo Choo Express: Neris or Chacin in a points league, I have a spot open for rp or SP

Brad Johnson: Neris. He’ll hurt less if he turns pumpkin

forever it: Thoughts on Souza’s start to the year? Sustainable or will the excessive K’s do him in?

Brad Johnson: He’s like a poor man’s Joc Pederson. The K’s hurt.

Brad Johnson: Think of Chris Carter, his numbers are usually there at the end of the year, but the path is painful

Jose Berrios: Am I up for good? If so, % of FAAB to throw out?

Brad Johnson: I doubt it, but it’s possible. You’ll need a BIG bid.

Rob: I checked on Betts’ swinging this morning. O-Swing% last 3 years: 18.9, 26.6, 23.8. Z-Swing%: 50.9, 52.9, 55.0. Swing%: 35.9, 40.3, 40.4. Swinging the same, if not better. So where is the difference for this year? Contact! O-Contact%: 74.4, 71.8, 50!!! Z-Contact: 92.8, 93.2, 93.0. Is O-Contact% something you see him fixing?

Brad Johnson: LoCain’s numbers were kind of like that. Without checking, I’m guessing he’s faced some quality pitching.

Brad Johnson: As I mentioned, I think he’ll figure it out

ElTulocabra: Should I try and trade Tulowitzki now while the season is early, or should I wait for him to regain his value? Zack Cozart has been doing well on my bench.

Brad Johnson: His name probably still carries more weight than his production. I’d shop him

Dasss right doo!: I took a flyer on Suarez in Cincy knowing the power would play in that park. The question is, can he keep it up to wind up a top 5 fantasy SS?

Brad Johnson: Top 5 could be a stretch, but I like him a lot

Brad Johnson: I may have mentioned I own him in every league I have

Evan Gattis: Am I droppable in a 10-team mixed?

Brad Johnson: long long ago

HappyFunBall: Non-saves league, just rank in terms of best per-inning: Zych, Strop, Strickland. Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Zych, Strickland, Strop

JeevesAsksYou: Surprised Eugenio Suarez’s 4 SBs? Can he continue to steal at a decent pace and maybe finish with 20+?

Brad Johnson: 20 is a stretch. The Reds do like to run a lot though

Ender Inciarte: Should I be owned, when healthy?

Brad Johnson: Depends on league depth. But if he’s hitting, healthy, and batting leadoff, then sure

Eastern NC: Any reason to worry about Cutch?

Brad Johnson: He’s probably not going to be the guy he used to be. I’ll still take his ZiPS RoS projection though

Alex: Afternoon Brad – My Brantley and Ervin Santana for his Carlos Gomez and Garrett Richards in a 20 team keep forever league?

Brad Johnson: Seems like an unnecessary trade and Brantley is sooo good when healthy. I’d hang tight

Eastern NC: Did we all jump the shark on Carlos Correa?

Brad Johnson: I never found him at an acceptable price 🙂

Brad Johnson: He’ll still be the top SS if it’s not Story

Brad Johnson: Coors Field is sooooo potent

Dasss right doo!: Taillon before Glasnow?

Brad Johnson: No, it’s been so long since he was healthy. They won’t want to break him again

Daddy: Is it just me, or is there a dearth of top level pitching so far?

Brad Johnson: The aces have not been acing

Mr. Wrestling IV: How does your strategy change for leagues with and without innings/starts caps?

Brad Johnson: No cap creates weird incentives

Brad Johnson: you either want to use a billion pitchers and hope to survive in ERA/WHIP or go elite SP/RP and hope the top arms get you enough W’s

Marshall: Is it too easy to presume that Freeman’s wrist is secretly hurting again?

Brad Johnson: Nope, especially because he basically said it was in the spring then tried to backpedal

Justin: What do Neil Walker’s numbers look like at the end of the season?

Brad Johnson: Something like 2014.

MattInMilwaukee: Rank please: Conley, Nola, Eickhoff, Happ, Gray, VV?

Brad Johnson: Nola, Conley, VV, Eickhoff, Happ

Brad Johnson: …

Brad Johnson: …

Brad Johnson: Gray

Brad Johnson: Which is funny since Gray is possibly the best in raw talent

Enos: Cobbling together 1B in a 12-teamer–which of the following is *least* likely to come back and bite me if I drop them – Zimmerman, Piscotty or Myers?

Brad Johnson: Myers

Brad Johnson: No supporting staff so even if he hits, it can’t be THAT good

Brian: 16 team dynasty 6×6 h2h that uses ops, and k/bb and qs. Looking to deal OF depth for SP. standard cats plus ops. don’t want to move an elite OF. I have stanton, cruz, marte, brantley, blackmon, dickerson, harrison. been offered kennedy for dickerson. I kinda like kennedy in front of that KC defense but I know he hasn’t been any great shakes in recent years and not sure if he’s any different than the other question marks in my rotation. Others sps are fernandez, price, sonny gray, salazar, liriano, gausman, teheran, garcia, clay, peavy, karns. Move dickerson for Kennedy?

Brad Johnson: In a keep forever or similar scenario, Kennedy for Dickerson is probably light. If you can get a second piece to upgrade the back end of the roster, I’d do it.

Eastern NC: Are you investing at all in Joe Mauer? Solid keeper in a 20 keeper league?

Brad Johnson: I own him in a 12 teamer and regularly start him. Mixing with Rendon, Duda, VMart, and Pillar

Traitor: Wainwright and Fernandez for Thor, enough?

Brad Johnson: Yes but also no

Brad Johnson: Very few would actually take that deal

Shin-soo Choo Express: Norris, mesoraco or Realmuto in a points league, I just lost TDA and its weekly lineups (points0

Brad Johnson: Tricky

Brad Johnson: Norris is the safest, Mesoraco has the best ceiling

Christian: Liriano became available in my league. Are you still investing?

Brad Johnson: Yep

Taveras’ Ghost: Is Pujols for Fowler too much? I dont need his feast/famine power, and I need runs. Should I aim higher?

Brad Johnson: It’s a bold move. Yes, it’s probably too much, but if the category math works, don’t shy away

Jack: Nola or Descalfani

Brad Johnson: Nola please and thanks

Guest: Are Cueto/Hernandez on the decline anytime in the near future?

Brad Johnson: Probably. Hernandez has exceptional pitchability. Think he can survive losing velocity

Dasss right doo !: Buying Eovaldi?

Brad Johnson: Ish

Brad Johnson: Still a streamer for me, one I can’t accurate project

Nate: Is Berrios an immediate add in 10 teamers?

Brad Johnson: Yep, if only to see if he goes nuts

Brett: How comparable are Darvish and McCullers ROS when they get back?

Brad Johnson: I’d still take Darvish over McCullers

James: Weird start for Lind … better hard contact rates, decent BABIP, but zero power/patience and far too many Ks. Are better days ahead?

Brad Johnson: Yea, it’ll even out. I think the M’s have him “working” on aggression

Dude jock: For CI spot 12 teamer that uses obp/slug% (no batting average)–drop J.Lamb for Joe Mauer?

Brad Johnson: Sure. Doing nothing is also viable here

Cubs Woo: How would you order these players for the rest of their careers? Eugenio Suarez, Domingo Santana, Lewis Brinson, Alex Bregman.

Brad Johnson: Very tough.

Brad Johnson: On second thought, I pass. Too little information on Bregman/Brinson

Zorak: Russel Martin or John Jaso ROS?

Brad Johnson: John Jaso Jingleheimerschmidt

Brad Johnson: Seriously, I’ll say Jaso until he stops playing regularly. Which probably will happen due to Bell or injury

Tex: Carrasco is hurt. Would you pick up Bauer in his place? Any interest in Eduardo Rodriguez or Dan Norris as a speculative add?

Brad Johnson: ERod for sure

Swfcdan: Nola and Conley over Vinnie V? Are you on drugs?

Brad Johnson: Nope. Velasquez is quite inconsistent. Command is iffy. Still think he’s a closer rather than a starter

Taveras’ Ghost: Yasmany Tomas is looking like the guy they hoped he would be lately. Any indication he has adjusted finally?

Brad Johnson: There are some signs, but not info yet to reach conclusions.

Brad Johnson: He’s looking genuinely improved. The degree of improvement is an open question

Dasss right doo !: Does that pothead Alex Reyes make it up before ASB?

Brad Johnson: Nah, but sometime in the second half should happen

Matt: I loaded up on high-upside youngsters – Eickhoff, Conley, Finnegan, Graveman. If I’m not in a roster crunch, are they all worth holding onto right now? If I am in a roster crunch, who’s the first one I should drop?

Brad Johnson: Keep em if you can. I don’t see Graveman becoming more than a 5+ inning guy

Ricky D: What’s the deal with Prince Fielder? He ever going to get it together?

Brad Johnson: Sure, I’ll take positive regression on a .203 BABIP with decent contact rates

CJ03: Lamb or Maikel Franco?

Brad Johnson: Big time Franco

Jeff: If the news on d’Arnaud is bad, is Plawecki is worth owning?

Brad Johnson: In a deep enough league. Doubt you’re referring to a 24+ C league.

Guest: Thoughts on Wisler? 14 team H2H with very little on the wire…

Brad Johnson: Talk to Sporer on Thursday. I’m not a believer. He is.

Innings Cap: In an 12 team H2H (2 keepers allowed) who would you target with VV or Joe Ross (both can be kept at a 10th for next year) if you wanted someone w/o a cap?

Brad Johnson: If you only get 2 keepers, you really need to do much better than either of them

Colin McHugh: I AM SO FRUSTRATING! What do you do with me?

Brad Johnson: Stream him or let others suffer

David: Lamb or Kang

Brad Johnson: Kang, and I’m not confident at all in that pick

AB: What are some targets I might look at for Daniel Murphy? In a keep 6 forever, 12 team league that counts obp,slg, & h, would you trade chris davis for sano straight up? What the hell is going on with Rendon? k% is down, gb are down, hard contact is up, using an all fields approach… confusing

Brad Johnson: You’ll want to keep Murphy. You’ll never get his production back in a trade. Let alone sell high

Brad Johnson: I’m convinced nobody buys Murphy at any price.

Brad Johnson: Since it’s a 12 team, I might stick with Davis for now. Or get something more than just Sano

Brad Johnson: If it was a 20 teamer, I’d say go for it

DJ: What do you think of Steven Wright? Any ways to predict consistency with knuckleballers?

Brad Johnson: Nope. Knucklers are inherently unpredictable. Braves are liable to smash him or fold tomorrow

Jon Snow v2.0: berrios and JD Martinez for Puig and gerrit cole?

Brad Johnson: I like both sides, bit of a challenge trade

Made in Taijuan: Moustakas or Rendon at 3B rest of year?

Brad Johnson: Push. Rendon has the added eligibility at 2B though

Skeletor: Yasmany Tomas or Justin Turner ROS?

Brad Johnson: Turner? He gets hurt often…

Brian: When blackmon comes off dl I’ll need to drop peavy or neris. League uses qs, but not holds. Have neris for ratios/k-rate and possibility of saves down road

Brad Johnson: Peavy’s an easy cut. Bet you drop them both BEFORE Blackmon is back

Martin: Send Watson+Jeanmar for Odorizzi+Prado? I need another starters and already have two closers. 16 team h2h league

Brad Johnson: Hell yes. Why are you pausing to ask me

Aledmys Diaz’s Mom: Why has no one written about my son’s performance yet? What does this man have to hit to get a FG piece on him?

Brad Johnson: Can’t speak for FanGraphs, but I’ve written about him roughly 20 times already – mostly for RotoWorld

Dave: Could Cingrani become the closer in Cinci at some point?

Brad Johnson: I think he’s the closer now. He’s kinda terrible though

Giving up: What’s a good return for Shelby Miller in a 10 team NL only league? I need a catcher, outfielder with speed, and starter to shore up my team, but can’t start him with his horrendous ratio stats so far.

Brad Johnson: That’s tough. Since it’s NL Only, somebody will be willing to take a flier

Brad Johnson: You’ll just have to look for teams with surpluses

George: I’ve got Story and Tomas rostered in a points league, with Kang on the DL. Is Story a drop at this point for me?

Brad Johnson: Wha? Why would you consider dropping Story? I know the strikeouts are rough, but the power is plenty tasty

Brad Johnson: He’ll adjust too

Go Blues!: Pick a side for me, I’m torn: DeGrom (can be kept next year as a 7th) or Stroman, Osuna, and next year’s 5th rd pick. 2 Keeper, 12 team, H2H.

Brad Johnson: If you need the saves, I’d consider the Osuna side

A guy: Drop Conley or Pomeranz for either Berrios or Snell?

Brad Johnson: Yes to both. Pom first, he doesn’t have the repertoire to start

Brad Johnson: Snell may be awhile before he returns

Travis: Is Willson Contrerras going to get the call any time soon, especially with Montero/Ross struggling?

Brad Johnson: It’s possible, I’d love to see him this year. As long as the team is winning, I don’t foresee change

Josh: Josh Harrison over Rendon at 3B for the rest of the year?

Brad Johnson: Push or maybe Rendon by a hair

Mark: Does Story break the strikeout record?

Brad Johnson: Only if he isn’t moved down the order

Joey: Do you think Jon Schoop is going to develop into a top tier second baseman? His rates all look better than last year but his production is down this year.

Brad Johnson: No. He’s a solid core guy at best

Brett: Got offered Wacha and Yelich for Story and Peralta. Am I selling short on Story?

Brad Johnson: Yep. Unless you have an airtight solution at SS

ed: whos the next big prospect to get the call? peraza?

Brad Johnson: He’s not big enough to call “big”

Bobby: Any worry about Cespedes injury?

Brad Johnson: No. Just fluid. Happens to old folks 🙂

Josh: What do you make of Marcus Semien so far? Walks and strikeouts are in line, but he’s hitting everything in the air. Is he selling out for power?

Brad Johnson: Probably. He’s always frustrating

Joey: Would you look to deal Ryan Braun now in a 12-team dynasty league if you’re competitive this year? I think he will be a top-30ish hitter ROS but I also worry this might be a last good opportunity to trade him…

Brad Johnson: I agree. The window is closing.

Billy: Ketel Marte a hold for now in a 12 team mixed league?

Brad Johnson: Fringe cut, depends on your team composition

Brad Johnson: don’t need to hold him on the bench

Aaron: What’s going on with Treasure Turner in AAA, and when can we expect a call up

Brad Johnson: Very soon I think. The Nats need something out of SS

Joey: Dynasty: Nomar Mazara or Corey Dickerson?

Brad Johnson: Mazara. Not sure how it’s even a question. It was Mazara over Dickerson this time last year.

Kenta Maeda: Do I finish with a sub 3 ERA? How about a sub 1 WHIP?

Brad Johnson: No

Sam’s Horrible Offers: Mazara in the early talks for AL ROY?

Brad Johnson: He was my preseason pick for the ROY

Tom Murphy: Any chance I get some run in Colorado this year? Nick Hundley is old and recently concussed.

Brad Johnson: It’s possible. Seems they have reservations about his catching?

Made in Taijuan: Are my questions not coming through? Or are you vetting each one?

Brad Johnson: It’s only possible to answer about 1/4 to 1/3 of the questions I get

Brad Johnson: I have to pick and choose a little. I mix between answering every one then skipping a big batch

Brad Johnson: then near the end I pick ones I like 🙂

Barry: Sell high on Castellanos?

Brad Johnson: yes

Greg: Is T. Walker breaking out? Or try to sell high (whatever that is for him)?

Brad Johnson: yes

Milwaukee: Any young arms you’re targeting for a second-half call-up and big-time performance?

Brad Johnson: I think you know the name

Brad Johnson: names*

Brad Johnson: Giolito, Taillon, Glasnow, Snell at the top

Brad Johnson: Musgrove comes to mind as an under the radar one

Brad Johnson: wrapping up, couple more…

Catchers: Cervelli isn’t cutting it in my OBP league, add Norris/Wieters/Ramos/Realmuto/Yadier?

Brad Johnson: I don’t understand. He’s been fantastic for OBP leagues.

Brad Johnson: Keep Cervelli, he’s very good

Bundy: Can I count on Pillar at least replicating last year’s numbers?

Brad Johnson: I am, I just did some research on him today. Decided he can do 10 HR and 20 SB

Brad Johnson: The aggression makes him hard to judge at times

Rufus T. Firefly: Matt Latos. Anything?

Brad Johnson: No.

Brad Johnson: And on that note, I bid you adieu

Brad Johnson: good game folks

Milwaukee: I was thinking Josh Hader……too young?

Brad Johnson: Add him to that list, I like him plenty