Brad Johnson Chat 5/7/2019
We chatted. It’s done. Lots of questions about Franmil and Ketel.
4:00 |
: We’ll get started in a few moments
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4:01 |
: At what point do you give up on Votto?
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4:01 |
: When he suffers a major injury
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4:01 |
: Certainly, we should adjust the expectations
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4:02 |
: He’s a core performing 1B with potential to turn hot. Kind of like a better Mitch Moreland
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4:02 |
: That’s still startable in 12-team mixed.
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4:03 |
: The power is probably gone, but I think the walks and Ks will regress
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4:03 |
: And as I pointed out elsewhere today, you don’t need power to hit 20 home runs at GABP
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4:03 |
: When will we see Yordan Alvarez in Houston?? Before the super 2 deadline?
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4:04 |
: The biggest barrier to Alvarez’s promotion is the lack of competition in the AL West. Houston isn’t taking Seattle or Texas seriously, and LAA/OAK have losing records
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4:04 |
: He would be up now if they had any pressure to improve.
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4:05 |
: I think he’ll be up in June or July at this rate. They’ll want time to figure out their best roster for the postseason (and to develop their future plans).
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4:05 |
: Presently, a promotion would involve discarding a player.
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4:05 |
: Travis Shaw: K’s up, horrible babip. Is this the real Shaw or is a rebound possible/probable?
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4:06 |
: I honestly remain perplexed. I have no insight into this. None of the usual peripherals for “he got worse” are lighting up
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4:06 |
: He’s just stopped hitting pitches, especially in the zone
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4:07 |
: I dunno. I’m going to assume it’s mechanical or he has an undiagnosed head injury.
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4:07 |
: (the latter option is, hopefully, a joke)
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4:07 |
: Need to get a (potentially) temporary replacement for Iglesias. Do I bid up Givens, or you thinking Jackson has the job in ATL?
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4:07 |
: I’d rather try Jackson and be wrong than ever roster Givens.
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4:07 |
: Can also hope Buttrey suddenly gets some opps
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4:08 |
: Do you see Michael Chavis as a 25 homer, .340 OBP guy?
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4:08 |
: Smells about right
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4:08 |
: Is Gausman droppable in a 12 team? He feels like a streamer to me.
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4:08 |
: He’s on the good side of the streamer pool. He might be available for months or somebody might decide to permanently roster him
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4:08 |
: Which isn’t a bad thing for you
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4:08 |
: Is Kyle Tucker worth holding on to?
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4:08 |
: Depends on the format.
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4:09 |
: Anything approaching dynasty, definitely.
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4:09 |
: Preference? Christian Walker or Daniel Vogelbach?
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4:09 |
: Vogelbach
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4:09 |
: Rank these 3 players: Michael Chavis, Jesse Winker, Franmil Reyes
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4:09 |
: Reverse order
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4:09 |
: Very close between Reyes and Winker
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4:09 |
: Chavis is a distant third
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4:10 |
: Reyes IS Khris Davis
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4:10 |
: Any hot start in particular that you are buying?
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4:10 |
: Hunter Dozier jumps out
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4:10 |
: Wish I had grabbed a few more shares
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4:10 |
: Ketel Marte or Nick Senzel?
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4:11 |
: I’m a Marte believer myself. I like Senzel too, but I don’t think he’s going to meet expectations this year. Too much swing and miss.
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4:11 |
: The early profile was a patient, high contact guy. Now he’s vaguely patient and low contact.
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4:12 |
: Is Joey Gallo Khris Davis now?
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4:12 |
: Joey Gallo was always something different (and arguably better) than Davis
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4:12 |
: He would have needed to get worse to become Davis.
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4:12 |
: What are you doing with Taillon? Waiting on second opinion? Thanks!
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4:12 |
: I’m holding, but my shares happen to be dynasty where I’m liable to wait through the whole damned TJS if needed.
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4:13 |
: 12 team mixed: I need to cut Robles for Luke Jackson ASAP, right?
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4:13 |
: Uh, that’s a push imo. They’re both temp guys.
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4:14 |
: I’m not buying Jackson’s no fastball approach as sustainable. Not with his minus command.
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4:14 |
: Franmil Reyes or Nomar Mazara?
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4:14 |
: So EZ Franmil
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4:14 |
: Did I mention he IS Khris Davis
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4:14 |
: Do you think Puig will come around or would you be more interested in Franmil Reyes for ROS?
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4:14 |
: I think Puig will rebound, and I prefer Reyes.
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4:14 |
: Have the Twins become a line-up to avoid with streamers? Have a couple blue jays (Sanchez, Thornton) that I’m thinking of sitting.
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4:14 |
: For those sorts of streamers, yes, I’d avoid
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4:15 |
: A class level up, you can use (i.e. Gausman, Archer)
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4:15 |
: someone dropped Darvish. worth a pickup in hopes he figures out the walks a bit? I could drop Peacock.
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4:15 |
: eh, I shouldn’t have clicked this one
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4:15 |
: I don’t have an opinion 🙂
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4:15 |
: You can stash Darvish, stick with Peacock, or check behind Door #3.
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4:16 |
: They’re all low value dart throws with some upside.
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4:16 |
: What’s a good rule of thumb for (limited) production vs. consistent playing time? and/or at what points do the daily starters lose value? or is it more dependent on the fantasy scoring for each league….
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4:17 |
: Scoring definitely matters. For example, in ottoneu FGpts, I’ll often prefer a middling leadoff hitter to a better platoon bat.
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4:17 |
: The key, usually, is to focus on hitting your GP limits then worry about marginal quality upgrades.
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4:17 |
: Is Jesus Aguilar even worth grabbing off the wire in a dynasty league at this point?
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4:18 |
: Definitely.
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4:18 |
: He’s a pretty obvious hot and cold hitter. And he’s shown a little life lately.
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4:18 |
: I have both Yandy and HDozier, hoping one of their breakouts stick. Which should I be starting every day?
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4:18 |
: Dozier.
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4:18 |
: Can pop Diaz in against high fastball pitchers.
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4:18 |
: Who to start as my OF3? FReyes, or DSantana? Have Blackmon and Marte.
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4:19 |
: Easy. Reyes when he’s in, Santana when he’s not.
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4:19 |
: What’s with all the Reyes heat today?
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4:19 |
: Would you claim a $16 Robbie Ray just dropped in Ottoneu FGpts if it ate up all of your salary room?
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4:19 |
: Maybe? Depends on my needs and how Ray might meet them.
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4:19 |
: Middle-reliever-with-SP-eligibility, do you like Gant or Urias ROS?
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4:19 |
: Urias more
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4:19 |
: Is Senzel in the OF for the long haul? Or is he back in the infield next year?
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4:20 |
: Probably super utility. But it depends on some of the other guys coming through the system.
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4:20 |
: What is to make of Bryce Harper?
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4:20 |
: I dunno, he seems just like Bryce Harper to me.
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4:20 |
: Did you click the article above the chat window? Harper’s a classic peaks and valleys guy.
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4:21 |
: Let’s not forget, he had a screwy spring too
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4:21 |
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4:21 |
: Any reason to suggest La Stella’s power is sustainable?
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4:21 |
: Sorta kinda
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4:21 |
: Like this isn’t exactly unprecedented for him
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4:22 |
: The better question is… can he continue to walk nearly twice as much as he strikes out
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4:22 |
: The Angels in general don’t. strike. out.
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4:22 |
: C Seager or K Marte (is this for real?)
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4:23 |
: You’re really testing me. If Seager wasn’t batting second for the Dodgers, I might say Marte.
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4:23 |
: Put ’em both on the same roster and lineup slot, I prefer Marte.
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4:23 |
: He’s a better athlete and his offensive profile has caught up to Seager’s slumping one.
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4:24 |
: Mallex Smith going to come back up and be valuable again? or was last year a fluke?
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4:25 |
: So I noticed a few things about the Mariners schedule when they demoted him. He’s hitting well in Triple-A (mucho small sample). I expect him back in short order.
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4:25 |
: Mike Minor: hold or stream in shallow 10-team?
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4:25 |
: I lean stream, but he’s going to get snapped up if you send him back to the wire.
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4:25 |
: Do u think Robert Stephenson could pick up save opportunities? Also, do u think he could transition back to the rotation and be effective there if the need arises? Thanks!
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4:26 |
: Saves are far more likely than effective rotation work
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4:26 |
: Maybe he could Open or Follow. But that’s hard to do in the NL.
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4:26 |
: I forgot, I meant to use OOTP to make a video about that…
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4:26 |
: lorenzo Cain is hurt now and was off to a slow start, do you believe he will rebound or is age slowly creeping in?
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4:26 |
: Both?
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4:27 |
: How much longer until Hiura gets called up to replace Shaw
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4:28 |
: Hiura’s Triple-A performance is rather mixed. I don’t think he’ll do as well as people expect. Like I’d be surprised if he wasn’t crushed by MLB pitching
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4:29 |
: Maybe good outcomes with a 35% K rate?
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4:29 |
: So I’m not sure how eager the Brewers will be to promote him. Comes down to what their own analytics guys are saying.
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4:29 |
: Do you think VanMeter earns anything close to full-time ABs?
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4:30 |
: I’d like him to at least get a couple weeks just to see if he can make something of it.
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4:30 |
: He was awfully Scooter Gennett in Triple-A (the good kind of Scooter)
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4:30 |
: Soria worth holding with a free spot till we hear about treinen?
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4:31 |
: Yea, Trivino first probably.
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4:31 |
: With Olson coming back today I have to drop someone. Do you think Brian Dozier is drop worthy in a 12 team dynasty?
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4:31 |
: Yea, I prefer Olson to Dozier if that’s the question.
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4:31 |
: Sooo still better than Shaw?
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4:31 |
: That’s tough to say
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4:31 |
: Shaw is befuddling. I’d like to see a phantom IL stint to get him some easy minors ABs
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4:32 |
: I’ll be back in a minute.
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4:34 |
: ok back
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4:34 |
: Chavis for Musgrove? 12 teams 10 keepers league
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4:35 |
: Chavis is a better long term asset, Musgrove is a much harder to fill type of asset
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4:35 |
: It depends on the state of your roster and needs. A keep 120 league is shallow enough that you shouldn’t be thinking about keeping either of these guys.
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4:36 |
: You can hem and haw about keeper value with the top 25 or so guys, after that, just get what you need right now and deal with the consequences later. The opportunity cost is small.
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4:36 |
: Hey Brad, who you prefer ROS, Spencer Turnbull or Yu Darvish?
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4:36 |
: Oof. That’s a hard hitting shot.
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4:36 |
Which?
Yu Darvish (46.6% | 49 votes)
Spencer Turnbull (53.3% | 56 votes)
Total Votes: 105
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4:36 |
: with legalized sports gambling growing are you going to migrate towards that or will you stick with DFS?
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4:37 |
: This might not be a popular opinion around here, or from a DFS guy, but sportsbetting is gross.
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4:37 |
: DFS is kind of gross too. 16% rakes as an industry standard? Really?
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4:38 |
: It’s an entirely online industry, the rake should be like 2.5%
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4:38 |
: relatedly, will Voit’s playing time suffer with Stanton and Judge back in the mix, or is it mostly dependent on performance? I’m thinking if he continues to hit like this he maintains full-time play
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4:38 |
: Pretty much has to play at this point. Outperforming Stanton at the very least.
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4:39 |
: What should we expect out of Sano? Better than Shaw?
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4:39 |
: I wouldn’t expect it
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4:39 |
: Hope for, certainly, but Sano was as bad as current Shaw before injury, and he actually always looked like that guy
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4:39 |
: Current Shaw could magically morph into 2016-2018 Shaw
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4:40 |
: We can hope 2019 Sano is actually 2018 Sano who was really bad luck 2016-2017 Sano. That gets confusing pretty quick
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4:40 |
: Haven’t bought the new version but OOTP seems like it misses on opposing GM trade offers and trade values in general. Did these improve in the new game?
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4:41 |
: They’re not… great… at trades
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4:41 |
: Very Dave Stewart
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4:41 |
: They do have a hard mode where the computer basically forces you to overpay in every move, but you can still do it in a way that is strongly in your favor
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4:42 |
: My recommendation is to force yourself to role play it
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4:43 |
: Trade a prospect for an expiring veteran stud rather than 30-year-old minor league contract veterans.
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4:43 |
: Even if the computer would have taken less. You know what’s actually reasonable.
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4:43 |
: Will P Alonso of first three weeks return?
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4:44 |
: Ebb and flow. You should have always expected the league to adjust. He’ll counteradjust.
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4:44 |
: Have all the injuries and SP issues caused you to rethink strategy?
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4:44 |
: Honestly, I picked the wrong year to have this many teams. I can’t get out of the weeds long enough to do that kind of thinking
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4:44 |
: I’m just putting out fires constantly.
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4:44 |
: H. Dozier is up for auction in my ottoneu 4×4. $15 bid isn’t crazy, is it? No surplus value, but nor is it an overpay, right?
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4:44 |
: Seems reasonable
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4:45 |
: Are you worried about my son’s slow start? Maybe too much hype?
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4:45 |
: Nope, he looks comfortable enough to me. I pick him in DFS every day. He’s going to win me some money.
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4:45 |
: Dear God when will Cleveland finally promote me?? It’s not like their outfield/offense doesn’t suck.
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4:46 |
: Nor is Mercado forcing the issue
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4:46 |
: Why would the Padres trade high for Mejia and then not let him play? Makes no sense and a waste of a trade of Hand.
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4:47 |
: As a team, you’re constantly evaluating your resources. And you tend to get a surge of information only after you’ve acquired a guy.
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4:48 |
: I think perhaps they didn’t realize Mejia’s limitations. I have no question Hedges is a better all-around catcher.
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4:48 |
: seems like most of the analysts are dismissing a legit breakout for james mccann. i get the BAPIP isn’t sustainable but he’s knocking the cover off the ball, you see a path to a ROS top tem C?
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4:49 |
: I think we’re mostly just looking at a locked in hitter. I’m not sure he’s truly a breakout. More like that year Alex Avila was good for awhile. Then wasn’t anymore.
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4:49 |
: who makes the bigger impact this yr and next…biggio or b Rodgers?
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4:49 |
: That’s a good question for the crowd!
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4:49 |
Better through end of 2020
Cavan Biggio (53.6% | 37 votes)
Brendan Rodgers (46.3% | 32 votes)
Total Votes: 69
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4:49 |
: hunter dozier’s performance sustainable ROS? have him as a rendon replacement and also dual eligible 3b/1b.
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4:50 |
: Well, sustainable is not the word I’d use. He’s not going to sustain himself as the third best hitter in the league by wRC+
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4:50 |
: He is a top 20 1B/3B
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4:50 |
: Any hope left for Jansen? or keep randomly selecting others from the C scrap heap?
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4:51 |
: Depends on league depth and the heap
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4:51 |
: If you can grab McCann or Astudillo (if he was tossed), then try ’em
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4:51 |
: Chirinos maybe
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4:51 |
: Alfaro?
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4:51 |
: Once you get in the real pit of despair, you’re better off hoping Jansen comes around.
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4:52 |
: Trade Harper for Trevor Bauer? My pitching is a mess.
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4:52 |
: Can do.
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4:52 |
: is it me or hearing Clevinger’s quotes about coming back “bigger and stronger” and wanting to touch 100mph worrisome? sounds like Thor before he hurt himself seriously
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4:52 |
: It’s just talk until it’s not. I don’t love that he injured himself already by getting bigger and stronger though
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4:53 |
: Thoughts on Matt Carpenter RoS?
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4:53 |
: Same as my thoughts last year. He’s doing almost the exact same thing.
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4:53 |
: Doesn’t mean he’ll go mental again. But I’m not selling any shares.
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4:53 |
: Is Chris Paddack still on an innings limit?
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4:53 |
: Technically, it’s a little more complicated than an innings limit.
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4:54 |
: They might talk about it that way publicly, but it’s really more of a complex stress measurement.
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4:54 |
: He’s had a couple decent starts against bad teams, but are you worried about Nola at all? Good buy opportunity? I don’t think I’d get much of a discount price, but I think his slow start might at least make him available in my dynasty points league, where I have a lot of tradeable assets.
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4:54 |
: Not exactly worried. I’m seeing obviously worse command, and I suspect a mechanical issue.
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4:55 |
: Are you buying into Martin Perez as a top-50 starter?
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4:55 |
: Maybe fringe. I still think he’s much closer to bad than good.
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4:55 |
: But The Glob is scarier than ever before!
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4:56 |
: Time to start wrapping up. fwiw, my poll votes would have been Turnbull and Biggio. The crowd agrees by decent margins
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4:56 |
: hold on leclerc or drop?
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4:56 |
: I’m mostly holding
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4:56 |
: It’s not like Kelley is going to keep the job all year.
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4:56 |
: Leclerc will probably rediscover his splitter. Whether he also cuts the walks is a separate question.
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4:56 |
: Is Jeff McNeil just an empty batting average?
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4:57 |
: Well, yes. We knew this though.
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4:57 |
: He could produce some runs with the right lineup role.
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4:57 |
: Sitting Dahl in my daily (50% rain + LHP). Who do I start instead: Schoop, Asdrubal, or DDS?
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4:57 |
: Oof, that’s a sharp downgrade
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4:58 |
: I’d look for an excuse to use Dahl (i.e. stay on top of the weather)
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4:58 |
: Leclerc or Matt Barnes ROS?
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4:58 |
: Barnes, I guess
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4:58 |
: Can’t Franmil hit for a better avg than Kris Davis? He has the skills to right?
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4:58 |
: Not really…
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4:58 |
: Thanks for all the love today. I enjoy hitting home runs.
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4:59 |
: Re: Paddack. I guess what I’m asking is: should I sell high before I get to my H2H playoffs?
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4:59 |
: Certainly can look into it.
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4:59 |
: What is wrong with Givens? Good skills and a full time closer role.
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5:00 |
: Is he? He has only 4 saves in part because he’s frequently used in a way that makes him unavailable to close. He’s a roughly 4.00 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 1.15 WHIP reliever. I’d rather roster Ryan Pressly.
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5:00 |
: Is Nathaniel Lowe worth a pick-up?
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5:00 |
: In most settings
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5:00 |
: Trade Devers at $15 for Ohtani at $18 in FGPTs?
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5:01 |
: It’s bold. You’re playing for something big in 2020 with Ohtani
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5:01 |
: Any thoughts on rolling out the Rays duo Castillo/Alvarado in a deep format daily moves league? I tend to buy lots of committee bullpen arms, currently 4 part time closers, in this format and just rotate in my starters based on matchups.
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5:01 |
: I have several Alvarado/Castillo pairings
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5:01 |
: And a bunch of solo Castillos because he was MUCH cheap on draft day for the same projection.
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5:01 |
: Can you explain to me how DFS is less gross than sports betting?
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5:03 |
: If you try hard enough, you can turn DFS into a fun game with a few dollars on the line. For example, my Daily Grind Invitational is $2 entry, guaranteed prize pool, and no rake. We get occasional overlays (meaning the site pays out more than they take in).
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5:03 |
: Now, the site does this because they’re betting TDGI entrants will also play in their normal GPPs which have normal rakes.
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5:04 |
: But if you just stick to the TDGI, it’s not really any different than a $100 fantasy league run by one of your buddies.
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5:04 |
: It’s just played a little differently.
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5:04 |
: Thoughts on a speculative play on Cubs bullpen? Kintlzer or Cishek a better add?
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5:04 |
: I like Cishek more
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5:04 |
: I’m not sure what Joey Mads likes these days
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5:04 |
: What are you doing with your Kluber and Taillon shares? I cant bring myself to drop (redraft)
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5:05 |
: I’m waiting for a little more information
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5:05 |
: It helps that I don’t have valuable alternatives at the moment.
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5:05 |
: Do you think Eric Fedde has a good shot at a rotation spot this year?
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5:05 |
: Definitely not, they’re converting him into a full time reliever.
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5:05 |
: Was announced a couple days ago
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5:06 |
: Is there any reason I should not be buying Paul Dejong’s next step? More walks, fewer Ks, power could have room to grow…
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5:06 |
: Be careful assuming he’s more than modestly improved.
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5:06 |
: But that’s still a useful asset with the way they’ve been using him
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5:06 |
: Is it mental to think I should try and flip Freeman for Snell or Bauer? Pitching is just so awful this year and Ivan fill with Alonso at first
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5:07 |
: Not mental, you’re making an attempt to address a problem with a strength
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5:07 |
: It’s trading 101
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5:07 |
: It’s just scary when we’re talking a Freddie Freeman for a pitcher
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5:07 |
: I assume this is redraft
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5:08 |
: It’s easier to shrug away this kind of move if it backfires in redraft. You’ll be kicking yourself for half a decade in dynasty
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5:08 |
: I remember one year I traded peak Kershaw for peak Stanton. Then 2 days later Stanton had a season ending injury. It’s not always pitchers who leave you screwed.
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5:08 |
: re: Fedde, he was just called up today … as a reliever to replace Tony Sipp (DL)
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5:09 |
: On that note, I’m tossing in the towel. Good game folks.
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