Brad Johnson Baseball Chat – April 4, 2017

Brad Johnson: Let’s talk some baseball!

Brad Johnson: 30 home runs in 14 games included four! multi-homer games

Brad Johnson: is it too soon to say the HRs are back?

Conor: Who’s your bet to get save chances in Oakland?

Brad Johnson: Sean Doolittle is their best reliever

Brad Johnson: sounds like it’ll be a hodge-podge for awhile

Dale: Does Houston Street claim the closer roll once he comes back?

Brad Johnson: Depends how Cam Bedrosian looks

Brad Johnson: If Street was good last year, it might be a more complicated decision

Brad Johnson: but since he sucked, there’s no need to hand him the role

Dale: What’s your outlook on Charlie Morton this year? His numbers were really impressive over the spring, not to mention his shortened 2016 (9.87 K/9 and 12.3% swinging-strike rate). Should we have faith?

Brad Johnson: I just got done recommending tomorrow’s start on another site. Said he could be the 2017 version of Rich Hill (aka an old guy breakout)

Finnegan’s Woke: How do you feel about Brandon Finnegan, both as a stream against the Phillies and as a rosterable SP in a 12-man league?

Brad Johnson: His command is shoddy, I want to see him take a step forward

Brad Johnson: wasn’t happening this spring

Brad Johnson: I’m more inclined to use Philly hitters than Finnegan

The Krukker: From your experience, who consistently wins your leagues – constant streaming or sticking with better players?

Brad Johnson: It’s a little of both. It’s the guys who spike their draft and work the wire to fill the cracks.

Cw: 10 tm keeper- I have been offered Greinke/Folty for Billy H./T. Watson…pretty much punting saves and I have Peraza/Turner/Gomez for SBs in H2H.

Brad Johnson: This is a pretty gross trade scenario

Brad Johnson: try to find a greinke quality SP who isn’t on the edge of immolation

Brad Johnson: You can do better with Hamilton. He’s the only guy of the 4 who must be owned in 10 team.

Dan: I auto-drafted in a 10 team roto. I wound up with a pitching staff of Porcello, A Sanchez. Stroman, Gausman, Lackey, Familia F Rodriguez and Holland. No one like to trade in this league. How should I manage my pitching. Just play everyone until I see how they do or should I try to stream the pitchers that have good matchups? Or do you have another strategy I can use.

Brad Johnson: I’d stream. I have some hope for Morton and Graveman this season.

Eric: How concerned are you about Osuna’s injury? Should I pick up Grilli as a handcuff, or will he be back soon enough that I can save my money?

Brad Johnson: Honestly, haven’t heard much. Impression is that it’s not serious. I’ll have to do some more research before a saves column I write tomorrow.

Bryan: $7 Khris Davis for $19 Cueto who wins?

Brad Johnson: Depends on the format. Looks fair to me. Might be a little harder to find Cueto-quality pitching.

Phils 4 Life: Who takes over once Gomez implodes?

Brad Johnson: Joaquin Benoit if it’s soon

Brad Johnson: Edubray Ramos maybe if it’s midseason

Brad Johnson: I think that’s who they want to step up

Brad Johnson: Neris’ command and splitter come and go, so I doubt they want him to close

Andrew: By some inexplicable chain of events, both cotton and gsellman are now on my league’s waiver wire. I have first priority — which one do I pick up?

Brad Johnson: those guys got so much hype, but they should be on or adjacent to the waiver wire

Brad Johnson: they’re really interesting $1 plays

Brad Johnson: compared to the many less interesting $1 plays out there

Brad Johnson: As for which I prefer, it’s on a matchup basis. They’re the same asset class.

B: Hi Brad- Thanks for the chat! Which of the following do you prefer to fill out the end of a rotation and why? Consider fairly deep benches and can plug in now, or afford to be patient for possible upside.

I need to fill two spots:

Musgrove, Bundy, Norris, Cotton

Brad Johnson: Norris and maybe Musgrove for now while looking for better. The non-Norris’ are all really similar in that they’re interesting but volatile. Norris has a slightly higher ceiling/floor

LA Mike: Would you deal Ellsbury for a C. Bellinger bench stash?

Brad Johnson: blech

Brad Johnson: Ellsbury’s really bad, but I’m not expecting all that much from Bellinger this year either. If it’s at a keeper, then go young.

Closer: Have multiple good closers but need one more. Reed or Iglesias in HTH?

Brad Johnson: Take Reed for now. If Familia boots him as expected, then you get to rinse and repeat with more information.

Ted: How long before Neris takes the closer reigns in Philly?

Brad Johnson: Not sure it happens. I know everyone says it will, but if they wanted to do it, they would have by now.

Brad Johnson: So they clearly view it as an emergency plan

Josh: What are your expectations for Alex Cobb this year? Worth a stream tomorrow?

Brad Johnson: I do not have expectations for him. Could be anything between dumpster fire and a return to his old form. I have no information to narrow it down at all

Aaron : Does Shawn Kelly have any value?

Brad Johnson: Not really. He’s been used as a short burst reliever. By spurning him this spring, I think WAS has signaled that they don’t believe he can do full innings.

JD15: Glad Fangraphs has some MIAC representation. I played at Carleton until ’14. On to my question…. how do you handle inning/game limits early in the season? Do you go case by case
each day or play people early in the year and worry about limits toward the end?

Brad Johnson: Depends on the limits. Most are taut – you need to play somebody almost every day to get there. For easy to hit caps, there’s obviously a lot more involved

Brad Johnson: in both cases, you want to reach the cap, so I’d build stats early then start platooning later

The Average Sports Fan: Do you think Puig is going to hit bottom 3 of the order all year?

Brad Johnson: It’s a good lineup. If he isn’t remarkably better than he was the last few seasons, he probably gets benched by June

Brad Johnson: replaced by Braun maybe?

DC: I’m not buying the Nat’s closer situation, how long before Kelley or Glover get the save chances?

Brad Johnson: Keep an eye on Treinen’s command

Brad Johnson: that’s the only thing holding him back from being a Sam Dyson quality closer

Jack: Last bench spot for 14 team H2H, Holliday or Schimpf?

Brad Johnson: Ooh. I’m a Schimpf fan, especially after he homered against Kershaw!

Brad Johnson: if you need run production and AVG, go Holliday

Brad Johnson: if you need MI/CI and HR, I’d go Schimpf

Brad Johnson: I’m answering questions 15 minutes in the past, I’m going to skip forward

Nolan: In a vacuum, would you trade Keuchel for one of Kris Davis, Carlos Santana, or Trumbo to insert over Corey Dickerson at DH?

Brad Johnson: Yes!

Brad Johnson: They’re all so much better than Keuchel. I’d take that trade if I had Mike Trout at DH, then worry about playing time later

Pops: Thoughts on Kyle Schwarber? Is there a shot that he gains catcher eligibility this summer?

Brad Johnson: Pretty sure he will at some point

Brad Johnson: Going by the 5 game standard at least

B: Do you see upon Beltre’s return any likelhood Mazara continues to hit towards the top of the lineup? He batted 3rd in yesterday’s game projections had him hitting middle-bottom of the lineup.

Brad Johnson: They want him to bat third because they see that as his future role. However, the quest for current wins may force them to be more pragmatic

Penguin: Does a platoon work in fantasy? Have Choo in OBP league and thinking of picking up a lefty masher.

Brad Johnson: It’s usually better to have two righty mashers. Or stream.

Starbuck Johnny: I’m intrigued by Mitch Haniger. Thoughts on his stats if he holds down RF all year?

Brad Johnson: I think we’re all intrigued. You want the upside or median?

Brad Johnson: Something like 15-28 HR, 8-16 SB, solid run production

Brad Johnson: the big question is the batting average. Could be anywhere between .220 and .290

Josh: Joc Pederson, top 20 OF?

Brad Johnson: Maybe. Certainly has the power. There are so many good outfielders though

JD15: When managing multiple teams, do you try and diversify players on your teams (ex. owning Bregman in all leagues)?

Brad Johnson: I do try to diversify some to ensure I have some contenders. If you make the same bad bet in every league, then it’ll sink your season

Brad Johnson: my big overlaps are $1 players like Capps and Reed

wizard: In a (13-team, mixed, 11 pitchers, 9*9) league that counts GIDPs and CGs, I’m excited about Graveman’s newfound velocity–sitting 94-97 mph and touching 98, with sink. 7Ks last night in 6IP, as tiny SS evidence of potential effect. To grab him, I’d need to drop one of Andriese or Eickhoff. a) Agree with premise? b) Even if you don’t, which of these two would you be more inclined to drop?

Brad Johnson: Do it. Andriese.

Brad Johnson: Graveman might be a top 20 pitcher

Brad Johnson: which reminds me. Taking a 2 minute break to ensure I claimed him in all leagues 🙂

Dumpster Diver: Chances Nats switch from Treinen to Glover by summer? 10%

Brad Johnson: 15-25%

Pops: Advice for a first time roto league player?

Brad Johnson: Oh boy. Can I assume you have H2H experience?

Brad Johnson: If so, the biggest difference is that the stats stick all season. You have to be a lot more careful when streaming pitchers

Brad Johnson: and much more diligent about getting all your offensive GP

Brad Johnson: you get no breaks in roto

Dan: Who to drop in my 10 team roto. Belt, Bird or Puig. I have 3 better 1b men.

Brad Johnson: whoa

Brad Johnson: Belt’s the best player, but he’s the least likely to develop trade value

Brad Johnson: him or Puig

Brad Johnson: probably should be Puig

Moelicious: Does Holland hold down the closer gig? Should I drop Ottavino for a handcuff to Tony Watson or K-Rod?

Brad Johnson: I need to see him pitch a few times at Coors. Holland is a slider-slider-slider guy which might not play well at elevation

Alex: The most boring & least talked about fantasy position – C. I have Vogt as a backup to Posey. Trying to hold him once teams get desperate at C due to injury, or lack of production from their current C. 17-team league – what type of value would you place on Vogt? 1 catcher league

Brad Johnson: Some kind of similarly unappealing starter

Brad Johnson: Michael Saunders? Matt Joyce?

Brad Johnson: Something like that

Rickey: You mentioned the home runs, what about the stolen bases? Everyone was so moved by Rickey’s speech they all tried to be Rickey yesterday.

Djibouti: What are your thoughts on Jackie Bradley this year? He looked good last night.

Brad Johnson: I’m a fan

Brad Johnson: admittedly, I’m a late adopter of Bradley

Brad Johnson: he’s a solid asset like Kole Calhoun

dee’s nuts: i’m in a 6×6 head to head 12 teamer that counts qs with a max of 9 starts per week. we have six bench spots. my rotation is sale, archer, martinez, hill, manaea, cotton, gsellman. Is that too much volatility? In other words, should I trade for a third tier pitcher innings eater? hellickson, liriano and bauer are the caliber of what’s on the wire.

Brad Johnson: nah, that’s fine.

Barry: Can I count on Tommy Joseph as my starting 1B in fantasy? He has a long leash right?

Brad Johnson: Yes to both

Brad Johnson: he’s going to hit home runs. Not sure how much else he’ll do

kdallas: what’s your take on the DeShields situation and outlook?

Brad Johnson: I don’t have a good read on that yet

Brad Johnson: He’s a 4th outfielder without a breakout

Bud: Brad, does your profile on rotoballers offer an xml feed or subscribe option so we cn get pinged when the streaming article goes up dai

Brad Johnson: They auto-tweet @baseballateam. I don’t pay attention to things like subscribe buttons

Brad Johnson: I’ll check later

The Kyd: Tanaka, Melancon, and Dyson all on my team. Awesome.

Brad Johnson: Kaboom

Brad Johnson: check that, kieboom

Lars: Trading Hanley and Greg Holland to land Cespedes in a 10-team redraft a deal worth doing?

Brad Johnson: yes

Macklemore: Hey Brad, what are your thoughts on Grichuk this season? Think he could be a .260 hitter with 30+ HR’s?

Brad Johnson: that’s the “everything worked out” season for him

Brad Johnson: expect less

Mookie: Have Sanchez and Lucroy in a 10-team 1 catcher league. How aggressively should I be seeking to move one or the other?

Brad Johnson: that’s an odd situation to find ones self

Brad Johnson: try to, uh, avoid it in the future

Brad Johnson: in my experience, catchers just aren’t tradeable in shallow formats

Brad Johnson: Might get a Michael Pineda offer for Posey

Bud: Or, in the alternative, is there a set time it will usually be up?

Brad Johnson: The streaming content should be up by 11am most days

Nick: So Graveman was sitting comfortably at 94 the whole night and began at 96 in the first inning. He also got 7 k’s. Should I pick him up?

Brad Johnson: yes, pending your league/rotation depth

Kid: Do you think that Corey Seager is more of a perennial 20-25 HR guy, or a 25-30 HR guy?

Brad Johnson: the difference between those is very very small

Brad Johnson: He’s a 20-30 HR guy

Dumpster Diver: Who has greater pts league upside if you could only keep 1- Domingo Santana or Jorge Soler?

Brad Johnson: domingo

PepeSilvia: Does Lance Lynn hold value in a 12 team league or does he stay more a streaming option?

Brad Johnson: Lynn never made sense when he was healthy, almost all fastballs

Brad Johnson: I’m letting others take a shot on him

Evil Goatee Brad: Kendall Graveman over Jake Odorizzi or teammate Sean Manaea? What about Fangraphs darling Robbie Ray?

Brad Johnson: Graveman over all, I think

Brad Johnson: this is not the first time I’ve been excited about Graveman…

TJ: Are you bullish on Buxton? I know he’s only 12, but I feel like I’ve been reading scouting reports on him for forever. .350 OBP possible? 20/20 season? Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: I’m low man on the totem pole when it comes to Buxton

Brad Johnson: I don’t think he has the ability to recognize pitches

Brad Johnson: the physical talent is there, but he always looks super lost

Kid: In a vacuum, Arenado + Justin Turner or Rizzo + Posey?

Brad Johnson: Arenado, although the later pairing is better for building a roster

B: Keuchel’s velocity yesterday looks very close (exact?) to his first start in ’15. Good things to come for him?

Brad Johnson: Shrug? I honestly don’t know. I didn’t think the velocity was the issue. His command went from 60-70 range to 40-50 range last season

Mike: I took DeShields as an end of draft lottery ticket. How patient should I be before dropping to work the wire? Just kind of baffled he’s not getting a firm look right out of the gate with how good his spring was.

Brad Johnson: If you’re in a 12 team setting, there will be MUCH better options on the wire

Dan: Which one of these pitchers should I drop to stream in a 10 team roto?Porcello, A Sanchez. Stroman, Gausman, Lackey

Brad Johnson: lackey, gausman, or none

Kid: David Dahl – buy, sell or hold?

Brad Johnson: any

Brad Johnson: buy if his owner is panicked, sell if you’re getting full-health offers, hold if the offers are crap

Sean: Give me one player currently that’s a “bubble” (ie, irrationally overvalued) and another one that you think is “going to zero” (ie, currently valuable but will be waiver-wire fodder by, say, midseason)

Brad Johnson: Need a moment to think about this

Brad Johnson: Buxton’s gotta be the bubble

Brad Johnson: went for more than $10 everywhere

Brad Johnson: he’s a $1 flier

Brad Johnson: A good player zeroing out…probably a pitcher like Jon Gray or Kevin Gausman

Brad Johnson: the perennial breakout profile guys

Pete: Saves league – Nova a fair price to pay for a top-mid-tier closer like Oh or Diaz?

Brad Johnson: Uh, very much so

Brad Johnson: Oh and Diaz are not mid-tier closers

Brad Johnson: they’re easy top 10

Brad Johnson: Nova for one of them is an absolute heist

Drew: Was offered Seung Hwan Oh for my Blake Treinen and Koda Glover. Have to accept that right? Saves+Holds league

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: shouldn’t have wasted time asking me 🙂

Dumpster Diver: Chances Pit switches to Rivero from Watson?

Brad Johnson: Not too high?

Brad Johnson: Watson has to lose his job, then they have to decide they prefer another LHP to Nicasio and Hudson

Brad Johnson: which they could

Brad Johnson: they’re all similarly high ceiling, low floor

Kid: Health provided, is it far to expect maybe an Adam LaRoche-ish season from Greg Bird? Maybe a hint more power?

Brad Johnson: Easy 30 HR, maybe 40+

Brad Johnson: he’s a fly ball pull hitter

Brad Johnson: the rest of the stats may be a touch painful

Brad Johnson: or they could be fine

Mark: Delino DeShields worth holding onto?

Brad Johnson: I’m getting so many questions about DeShields. Did I miss something? He’s a 4th OFer.

Ken: In case I got lost in the time skip – what are biggest differences for switch from daily to weekly roto? Obviously platooning/streaming changes, but any other major adjustments needed?

Brad Johnson: Not really. In draft, you’ll want to focus on actual full time starters. The stars and scrubs approach withers more often

Mark: Pujols says he’s finally pain-free. Expecting good things this season?

Brad Johnson: Does he now? Coulda sworn I’ve heard this every 12 months or so…

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll continue to do what he’s done

Brad Johnson: home runs and a low BABIP

Marcus: Adrian Gonzalez: bounce-back, or dead cat bounce?

Brad Johnson: closer to the cat. I do think he’ll be fine this season if healthy

Lauren: Manny Margot gonna be a 10-team bat this season?

Brad Johnson: Probably not, except as waiver wire steals

kevinthecomic: just dropped Max Kepler for Gsellman and then dropped Manuel Margot for Kendall Graveman — I had plenty of OFs on bench and no SPs on bench — 12 team roto — tell me I did the right thing…………..

Brad Johnson: Seems fine to me if you needed SP

I claimedGraveman: Dropped Shields, over guys like Finnegan, Berrios, Skaggs, Gsellman, Morton. Right move?

Brad Johnson: yep

Ken: How much impact do you see for Deshields this year? Given his strong spring, I had hoped TEX might try him at leadoff. Instead they hit Gomez leadoff and used Profar.

Brad Johnson: Expect a lot more Profar early. He’s deceptively close to free agency so this is a make or break year for him with the Rangers. DeShields is a 4th OF type. The club can always turn to him later if he keeps hitting like it’s spring.

Elmer: You a Nola believer?

Brad Johnson: Define believer. I think he’s a fantasy quality SP, but not an ace

Rick: DL stashing…what are your thoughts on Dahl? I’ve got him, Beltre, and Sonny Gray stashed…thinking of bouncing Guerra now that he’s out…can’t decide between the two.

Brad Johnson: I see no reason to roster Gray

Brad Johnson: Hang onto Dahl

Brad Johnson: the Coors upside is so attractive

Brad Johnson: even if you give up on him, you can still extract a payment from someone else

Kid: Vogt is a pretty solid hitter for a catcher – Tell that guy in the 17-teamer to shop Posey and see if somebody will pay sticker for him.

Brad Johnson: I’m over 20 minutes in the past again, fastforwarding…

Ken: What is Deshields favorite color? Will he drink coffee on Sunday?

Brad Johnson: DeShields is a 4th OFer

Brad Johnson: 🙂

Matt: Is Khris Davis basically Nelson Cruz minus probably 20 points of BA?

Brad Johnson: Sure

Rick: Why does everyone hate Jay Bruce? 30+ HR with .815 OPS last year. Is it the batting average? Two first names? I don’t get it. Think he plays all year and keeps Conforto at bay?

Brad Johnson: He’s one out per week away from a -2 WAR player

MarinerDan: Austin Hedges: what are your thoughts?

Brad Johnson: The power is more real than people realize

Brad Johnson: everybody remembers the old scouting report of no bat, big glove

Brad Johnson: Would like him a lot more at Miller Park or similar

Brad Johnson: maybe 15 HR, otherwise mediocre numbers

Brian: Should I drop Greinke for someone like Morton, Wacha, or Liriano?

Brad Johnson: Ugh

Brad Johnson: I don’t have the balls to tell you to drop Greinke for Morton

Brad Johnson: you may regret it, but you should keep Greinke

MarinerDan: Thoughts on this staff in a 14 team Roto: Kluber/Strasburg/McCullers/Jon Gray/Nova/Ross/Guerra/Lynn/Skaggs/McCarthy

Brad Johnson: That’s a steep cliff on the back end. Keep looking for waiver finds like Graveman and Morton

Mike Milligan: Is DeShields basically Nelson Cruz without the average homers runs and RBI ?

Brad Johnson: If Nelson Cruz was a 4th OFer, much younger, faster, and less strong, he would be DeShields

JP: Any chance we see Hader sooner rather than later with the injury to Junior Guerra??

Brad Johnson: Could see Hader pretty soon. Timing is up to him more than anything.

Josh: Best saves stashes for the end of the season in H2H league? Knebel? Capps? Others?

Brad Johnson: Capps, Reed, maybe Zych in case Diaz goes down

Brad Johnson: Hand in case Capps doesn’t recover?

Brad Johnson: Bush

Brad Johnson: Edubray Ramos

Cam rhymes with Ham: In a league with holds and saves, K/9, would you rather have siegriest, Holland, or bedrosian?

Brad Johnson: Bedrosian

Thompson: I see a lot of Graveman talk. Suppose I was nervous about my overall SP. (1) Do I drop Nick Castellanos and add Graveman? (2) Graveman or Bundy?

Brad Johnson: I’d keep Castellanos unless he’s your 4th 3B or something silly like that

Brad Johnson: While I think Graveman could be an ace, he’s also probably just Graveman

Brad Johnson: I prefer him to Bundy though

Matt: Pick one light-to-moderately owned hitter and pitcher that, by midseason, will be fixtures on everybody’s roster. Could be a prospect, or a hurt guy, or a guy currently blocked by a vet, etc…

Brad Johnson: Can I stick with the Graveman/Morton theme?

Brad Johnson: It’s my chat. So yes, I can

Brad Johnson: I really think Aaron Altherr is playing daily and batting 3-5 by June

Brad Johnson: Matt Joyce is batting leadoff!

Kevin: Thoughts on late demotees Park and Vogelbach – either one worth stashing?

Brad Johnson: Should be able to leave em on the wire in most leagues

kevinthecomic: Brad Johnson:Delino DeShields as Dan Szymborski:Nick Markakis

Brad Johnson: Nick Markakis is a 3.5 OF

Brad Johnson: he can start, but you really don’t want it to happen

Pat: Hey Brad. I’m in my first fantasy league this year on Ottoneu. I like my team, but I have both Grandal and Lucroy as catchers. I figured I could just play matchup with them like yesterday, but they’re both 20$ and it seems like a big waste of resources. Do you agree?

Brad Johnson: Yuuuup

Brad Johnson: Good news though, catchers retain decent value in ottoneu because of the deep roster

Brad Johnson: so you can hold one until injury or a good offer forces a move

Lars: Do you believe in a Kiermaier breakout? 20 HR and 30 steals?

Brad Johnson: 20 HR?

Brad Johnson: 15 and 25 for me

Moelicious: Should I drop Greinke for DeShields?

Brad Johnson: Leave

Bob Ross: H2H pts. Drop Manea for Mortons two starts next week?

Brad Johnson: That’s tricky

Brad Johnson: I think you could. I also think my fellow analysts might scorn me for saying that

dave in slc: We have a late auction draft still due to live and getting guys schedules to line up. do you pay up for posey, grandall types in 2 catcher NL only keeper or are there late guys you like? Have Hedges kept already

Brad Johnson: I like Jett Bandy a lot

Brad Johnson: but I’m inclined to get a good C in these formats

Brian: Just wanted to say thanks for doing this chat! You da man

Brad Johnson: And on that note, it’s time for rapid fire round

Brad Johnson: Thanks for participating, see ya all next week!

Jack: Drop A. Reed for Treinan?

Brad Johnson: No

Djibouti: Is Khris Davis basically Bumgarner with less power?

Brad Johnson: Yep!

Chick: Who ya drop? Brantley, Calhoun or Piscotty?

Brad Johnson: Oh…Brantley?

Stuck in a Slump: Odds of Rookie Davis being decent in a 20 team league this year?

Brad Johnson: Very low