Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/12/2017
Here’s the transcript from today’s chat.
4:00 |
: Hey folks |
4:01 |
: Let’s talk about some baseball |
4:01 |
: From 1-Hoskins how much are you buying Matt Olson? Like Dave said in his article earlier today he’s been very powerful and recently been increasing his contact % since becoming a regular. Both good things, but still a small sample size as his track record doesn’t match the performance. |
4:02 |
: Olson is interesting, but I still view him as a power hitting streamer. Maybe similar to a healthy Lucas Duda. He’s around 10-15% owned. |
4:02 |
: Matt Olson or Trey Mancini ROS? |
4:02 |
: Mancini’s also in that same power-streamer bucket. I prefer Olson right now |
4:02 |
: Hey Dave – are you willing to drop Xander for Reyes? Kind of crazy considering rankings, but I’d be playing the hot hand… |
4:03 |
: Hi Ben, if you’re in need of SB, I’d consider it |
4:03 |
: Not worried about the 0 Ks from Gibson last time out? Seems like it could be a sign of regression … |
4:03 |
: I mean… it’s Kyle Gibson. I worry in general about him. He could have had 16 Ks last time out and I’d be just as worried. |
4:04 |
: For fantasy purposes, is there an all-encompassing non-park adjusted statistic to rank batters? OFF comes close, as it accounts for hitting/BsR/steals, but has the downside of park adjustment. wOBA/wRAA/wRC don’t adjust, but omit BsR/steals. I’d like a stat that accounts for all forms of offensive contribution while also rewarding/identifying your Blackmons and Arenados for hitting in Coors-like environments, since I don’t care about (and should really take advantage of) context when it comes to my roto team. Or do I just sort by OFF and apply a rough Coors/Chase/Arlington fudge factor? Thanks! |
4:05 |
: Why not just use a few stats? I’m usually more interested in the components since I’m looking to accomplish very specific things – especially late in the season. |
4:05 |
: Is Zach Davies an every start guy now? Made it through some very tough matchups, but the Ks and peripherals still aren’t there. |
4:05 |
: It’s going to depend on your IP cap and where you stand in relation to it |
4:06 |
: if you’re ahead of pace, no. If on or behind pace, you’ll need ’em all |
4:06 |
: Delino Deshields interest you as a target this week over T. Pham? |
4:06 |
: Yes, although Willie Calhoun may eat into his playing time a tad. |
4:06 |
: Before his shoulder injury it was easy to pick 2 of Conforto/Hoskins/Robles in an OBP keeper. Robles still the odd man out |
4:07 |
: Ooh, that’s tricky. If you have offseason trading, I wonder if you could package the pair for something a little safer. I think you still have to keep Conforto though |
4:07 |
: Thanks for your help Dave! |
4:07 |
: No problem Samwell |
4:07 |
: Are you confident that Justin Smoak will turn things around this week, or are you giving up on him? |
4:08 |
: It’s a week, absolutely anything can happen. I’m holding/starting him on my rosters if that helps |
4:08 |
: Peraza or JP Crawford? I need runs. Also, Glasnow worth a shot? |
4:09 |
: I think I’d lean Peraza. Or even Phil Ervin. |
4:09 |
: I don’t have much faith in Glasnow’s terrible command/control |
4:09 |
: I just saw him pitch a week ago in Durham. Great stuff, no ability to locate |
4:09 |
: Dynasty Kopech or Buehler and Vlad Jr or Eloy? |
4:10 |
: Buehler and Vlad seem to be the consensus. Would take me some time to dig in |
4:10 |
: Is Bumgarner a top 25 pick next year or closer to top 40? |
4:10 |
: I’d guess somewhere around pick 25-35 |
4:10 |
: There’s going to be an overemphasis on ace pitching next year |
4:10 |
: I can already see it happening |
4:11 |
: They both list at 5-9/180 and hit for more power than their frame would suggest. They were born a mere three weeks apart. They are both among the elite in MLB this season despite neither being a much heralded prospect. They both came up as 2Bs, but only one of them still plays there. Is that positional difference enough to dare to keep Jose Ramirez over Mookie Betts? |
4:11 |
: You really can’t keep both? |
4:11 |
: If not, I’m still on Mookie |
4:12 |
: The h2h playoffs stress me out, nothing I can really do at this point though, right? My team more or less is what it is save for some waiver wire streamers… |
4:12 |
: true |
4:12 |
: So if Conforto is still the choice, Hoskins or Robles as the last in OBP? |
4:12 |
: Oh Hoskins is the best of the 3 |
4:12 |
: Playoff time. Wins and Ks reign supreme. Best speculative add of these starters? J. Thompson, Lugo, B. Anderson? |
4:12 |
: uh, Anderson. Woof |
4:12 |
: That’s an ugly list |
4:13 |
: Start Peters today? |
4:13 |
: Very dependent on your needs. It’s a risky play but the upside is solid |
4:14 |
: Sorry had to take a moment to interject in a chili debate on baseball twitter |
4:15 |
: Your Chili has…
no beans (14.8% | 4 votes)
black beans (22.2% | 6 votes)
kidney beans (62.9% | 17 votes)
Total Votes: 27
|
4:15 |
: There is a correct answer |
4:15 |
: Ian Happ or Ozzie Albies for a keeper at 2B next year? |
4:15 |
: Happ, easy |
4:16 |
: Albies is more of a real world guy |
4:16 |
: Castillo or Godley in 2018? |
4:16 |
: Well, I’m very confident in Godley |
4:16 |
: but Castillo has actual top 10 SP upside, Godley’s more of a consistently solid arm |
4:16 |
: Should I pitch Gibson tonight |
4:17 |
: I think probably yes. He’s been good and the Padres are not |
4:17 |
: I’ve been struggling with SS this whole season – can you recommend a guy off the wire who can fill a void this week? Escobar, Reyes, Barney, K.Marte, E. Escobar (its a deep league) |
4:17 |
: Reyes is the pick |
4:17 |
: Do you like Michael A Taylor over DeShields? Taylor’s home #s are great this season |
4:17 |
: Kind of a push, Taylor’s a little more likely to play on a given day |
4:18 |
: DeShields is a better player |
4:18 |
: Drop Pollock for Haniger in a OPS league? Guy has been white hot. |
4:18 |
: Certainly seems like Haniger needs to be rostered. Can’t confirm Pollock is the right cut |
4:19 |
: Also, the hell is wrong with all of you. Kidney beans? Leave now! |
4:19 |
: The correct answer is tasty, unctuous black beans |
4:20 |
: Glasnow’s walks per game last seven starts: 1,1,1,1,2,2,1. I don’t see how that supports your argument that he’s had terrible control since changing to pitching from the stretch only. |
4:20 |
: I don’t know what to tell you. Well, I do actually. |
4:21 |
: I saw half a dozen 58 foot curves and his catcher reached a foot or more for nearly every pitch he threw |
4:21 |
: The Bulls hitters were being hyper aggressive, probably because the stuff was so good |
4:21 |
: They were all trying to hammer a first pitch fastball, after which they usually looked completely overmatched |
4:21 |
: How do you deal with your semi-studs who are cold like moose now that playoffs have started? I could drop him for someone who is hot like reddick or Haniger instead |
4:22 |
: For someone like Moose, you can move on to a hot hand since the projected difference isn’t that much |
4:22 |
: if you have a cold stud like Justin Smoak, you’re kinda stuck |
4:22 |
: And yes, Smoak is considerably better than Moustakas |
4:22 |
: A weird statement to be making |
4:22 |
: What’s your outlook for Jimmy Nelson next year? |
4:22 |
: I have no idea |
4:23 |
: I cut him in a keeper where I could have had him for $8 |
4:23 |
: Needed the roster spot |
4:23 |
: Is Blake Parker done getting save opportunities? Worth keeping in a 12 team mixed league? |
4:24 |
: Seems like he’s the guy, but Mike Scioscia is the worst for fantasy owners |
4:24 |
: Would you start Stephenson tonight against STL? Need the K’s… |
4:24 |
: If you just need K’s yes |
4:24 |
: could hurt your ratios |
4:24 |
: Who would you prefer in an OBP league– Beef Wellington or Chirinos? |
4:24 |
: Chirinos |
4:25 |
: Hang on to Taillon or take a chance on Giolito? |
4:25 |
: That’s a push to me. Giolito still seems homer prone, but he does look better than last year |
4:25 |
: Taillon is close to replacement level for a 12 teamer |
4:25 |
: Hi, I am Mad Online about the Tigers and Michael Fulmer. Why isn’t he on the DL?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Why just keep him on the roster, wasting a roster spot where it’s truly needed, my fantasy team in the playoffs?!?!? Doesn’t Detroit know how important this is???? |
4:26 |
: Welcome to September. It’s a pain in the ass |
4:26 |
: Are you starting Paxton later this week against HOU? Or do you think there’s going to be some DL hangover |
4:26 |
: Well, I personally am starting him because I need every inning I can get. I do worry about mistakes |
4:26 |
: Your chili can have black beans, but only as a supplement for flavor or color. Kidney beans are the base ingredient, or else it’s not really chili. |
4:27 |
: Strong disagree, kidney beans ruin otherwise good chili with their terrible texture and weird chewiness |
4:27 |
: kidney beans are probably not actually digestible |
4:27 |
: I’m pretty sure |
4:27 |
: Gibson strike out lot of padres tonight? |
4:27 |
: I’ll set the line at 3.5 K. He has 0 K last time out |
4:27 |
: Gibson get a win and K’s tonight? |
4:27 |
: I’ll set the line at 0.60 wins |
4:28 |
: h2h playoff matchup. Picked up Biagini as a streaming option for tonight. Dominated the O’s last time out, been bad otherwise. Do I have hope for an ok start tonight? |
4:28 |
: Yea there’s a hope. He’s terrible with runners on base |
4:28 |
: He gets hammered which may or may not be a real thing or a fluke |
4:28 |
: he also can’t hold them – definitely a real thing |
4:28 |
: Fulmer will be fine to keep for 2018, right? He’s getting the deGrom surgery and that’s worked out pretty well for his owners. |
4:29 |
: Oh yea, he’ll be full strength in February barring setbacks |
4:29 |
: Rangers activate Beltre from DL…? What’s this do to Gallo and Deshield’s value now? |
4:29 |
: Not much, I imagine he’ll be used as a pinch hitter for now |
4:29 |
: Haniger or Pham, OBP keeper league. |
4:29 |
: Haniger RoS. Probably Pham to keep. Pretty similar talents |
4:29 |
: Tim Anderson has been great lately. Next year he is a top-? Shortstop. Him or Dansby Swanson? |
4:30 |
: I wish Dansby would hit a home run… |
4:30 |
: Otherwise, he’s doing pretty well |
4:30 |
: Not sure where Anderson rates, but probably well outside the top 12 |
4:30 |
: Do the Indians win tonight? |
4:31 |
: How could they not? Corey Kluber versus Matt Boyd is like the Patriots versus Rutgers |
4:31 |
: Then again, it’s baseball 🙂 |
4:31 |
: Got have multiple types of beans in your chili! Give me kidney, black, pinto, and cannellini up in there!!! |
4:32 |
: where do you put the 5 meats? |
4:32 |
: a good chili is mostly meat and fat and melted onions |
4:32 |
: Is Darvish becoming un-startable down the stretch? |
4:32 |
: I don’t think so |
4:32 |
: His peripherals are fine. I’m hoping it’s a weird blip |
4:32 |
: Would you give up on Salazar for Buehler? |
4:33 |
: Ballsy trade |
4:33 |
: I think I still lean Salazar, but it’s only 55/45, could win big betting on Buehler |
4:33 |
: just remember that he’ll be babied for a couple years |
4:34 |
: the curse of being a top pitching prospect. If you’re not supposed to be somebody and suddenly become good, they’ll throw you 200 IP without a second thought |
4:34 |
: Pick 3 to keep for next year among the following options (assume equal cost): Chirinos, Lamb, I. Happ, Sano, Bauer, Wood, Rodon |
4:34 |
: Sano, Lamb, ??? |
4:34 |
: Not Chirinos, or Bauer |
4:34 |
: or Rodon probably |
4:34 |
: Would you start E-Rod at home vs OAK tonight? |
4:34 |
: Yessir |
4:34 |
: first time joining, thanks, great site |
4:34 |
: hello |
4:35 |
: HAI |
4:35 |
: Joey Gallo currently day-to-day. Any possible hot-hand adds at 1B for the rest of the match up week in case I decide to pull the trigger on Gallo? |
4:35 |
: a moment |
4:35 |
: Matt Olson is the obvious one |
4:36 |
: Joe Mauer is OBPing out of his mind |
4:36 |
: Justin Bour is alive again |
4:36 |
: CJ Cron |
4:37 |
: that’s about all I can think of at 1B, might be missing an obvious name |
4:37 |
: feel like I am |
4:37 |
: In H2H playoffs – do you have any maxims to live by these last 3 weeks? |
4:37 |
: throw Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer as many times as possible |
4:37 |
: whats your favorite stack tonight |
4:37 |
: I haven’t dug in yet, will do so after this chat |
4:38 |
: I like to wait until lineups are out or else I become anchored to my first impressions |
4:38 |
: That said, the Indians have a succulent matchup |
4:39 |
: Willie Calhoun is the next Hoskins. |
4:40 |
: I don’t know. Hoskins has Joey Votto’s eyes. |
4:40 |
: I see the statistical similarities for Calhoun, but there’s no sign of actual discipline in the numbers. I don’t have a scouting report in front of me that mentions him working counts |
4:40 |
: none of my comments being posted wth is this |
4:40 |
: I’m 10 minutes behind, relax yourself |
4:41 |
: Better than normal |
4:41 |
: Your chili sounds awful |
4:41 |
: Nah, everybody says it’s the best. Definitely better than restaurant quality even if it might not win a award |
4:41 |
: What is a reasonable expectation for G Richards’ two-start week? |
4:42 |
: 8.2 IP? Decent ratios |
4:42 |
: I’d say good ratios, but he has to face the Astros |
4:42 |
: i dropped devenski weeks ago for a stream, was that dumb? |
4:42 |
: Nah, that’s fine |
4:42 |
: Any hope for Starling Marte to pick it up this month? He’s been a shell of his former self post-suspension. |
4:42 |
: Hope away. I don’t see any indicators trending that way aside from his long history of being a good player |
4:42 |
: I’ve always been worried he might collapse |
4:43 |
: Delino is the everyday Texas CF now with Carlos Gomez out, FYI |
4:43 |
: Yea, sort of. He’ll still sit a couple times per week as they shuffle the lineup around |
4:43 |
: Choo can fake it out there |
4:44 |
: In a vacuum, I think that your fantasy advice comes off as slightly worse than better. But this kidney bean vs. black bean debate makes me question your logic more than when you made that ridiculous trade and said that Joey Votto was a bigger injury risk than Albert Pujols. |
4:44 |
: lel |
4:44 |
: I think you’re sticking on the wrong portion of that analysis |
4:44 |
: More importantly, black beans are empirically the best beans. It’s science. |
4:45 |
: Is Lance Lynn a top 100 player again next year? xFIP suggests regression. |
4:45 |
: I wouldn’t count on it |
4:45 |
: He’s had a weird year |
4:45 |
: Would you drop Salazar in a 10 team keeper league (keep 12)? I’m in the playoffs and not sure if he is worth rostering down the stretch? |
4:46 |
: In a 10 team, I’d chase money over keepers. It’s a shallow format – you can always find more |
4:46 |
: And Salazar probably isn’t a top 120 player going into 2018 |
4:46 |
: Thoughts on Dillon Peters? Seems like a lot of Fangraphs writers really like him |
4:47 |
: I’m not convinced he can keep up anything like his current whiff rate (2 GS) |
4:47 |
: I think he’s probably a 7.50 K/9, 3.00 BB/9 guy with an uncertain GB rate |
4:48 |
: he might be like Godley, there’s a chance |
4:48 |
: a left-handed version too |
4:48 |
: I like that he’s thrown fewer than 50% fastballs |
4:48 |
: That’s going to be one of the new smell tests for instant pitcher success |
4:49 |
: do they throw more offspeed stuff than fastballs |
4:49 |
: Was Planning on Jimmy Nelson as a low cost keeper ($10 ($5 +5inflation each year))….. Does the injury worry you or still worth keeping at that low cost.. (10 keepers $300 budget) |
4:49 |
: I’d probably move on unless we hear something positive before keep day |
4:50 |
: It’s a pretty serious shoulder injury |
4:50 |
: Even a clean recovery could take 2 years before he’s back to this level |
4:50 |
: and there are a ton of pitfalls along the way that could completely ruin his career |
4:51 |
: You buying Matt Chapman? He’s on a tear but the contact % is scary |
4:51 |
: I like Chapman as a better Matt Davidson |
4:51 |
: What does Alex Wood do next year? |
4:51 |
: Better question, does Alex Wood throw 94 or 92 mph next year |
4:51 |
: That will decide whether he’s an ace or a guy |
4:52 |
: What pick will Starling Marte be in redrafts next year? In or out of top 75? |
4:52 |
: I think he’ll still be top 75 |
4:52 |
: Any hope that Salazar starts again before the end of next week? |
4:52 |
: Not really, seems like he’s in the bullpen to prepare for the postseason |
4:52 |
: Chance Sisco gonna be a viable #2 Catcher next 1-5 years? |
4:52 |
: Theoretically |
4:53 |
: They have to give him room to play frequently |
4:53 |
: I kinda suspect he’ll be a split time guy. Maybe it’ll work like Tyler Flowers/Kurt Suzuki |
4:53 |
: which 1B should i trade manny machado for? |
4:54 |
: Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, or similar |
4:54 |
: if it’s a keeper, age is a consideration so I’d stay away from over 30 studs |
4:54 |
: since Machado is so young |
4:54 |
: Has Gausman turned a corner? Or is this just his usual run of 8/10 solid starts that makes us all overdraft him next year? |
4:55 |
: I’m going to bet the latter next draft season. I did this year. |
4:55 |
: Not trying to be snarky but I’m a Rangers fan and there’s a zero percent chance that Choo plays a single inning in CF. Delino is going to lead off every game the rest of the way unless he gets hurt |
4:56 |
: I really doubt he’s going to be a 100% start now that Calhoun is up and Beltre is around to DH |
4:57 |
: Brad, are you going to be back on before the start of next week to lay out some great 2-start streamers for the championship week? |
4:57 |
: No, but you can pester Sporer! |
4:58 |
: 2 start SPs aren’t my specialty. I prefer one good start and RPs to two mediocre starts. |
4:58 |
: Calhoun is a different animal from Hoskins because of that walk rate. What he does look a LOT like is a potentially more powerful version of Maikel Franco |
4:58 |
: I wonder if you’re a Phillies fan 🙂 |
4:59 |
: I don’t know about that Franco comp. |
5:00 |
: Franco has a lowish K rate despite a high SwStr% |
5:00 |
: Calhoun doesn’t whiff (like Hoskins) |
5:00 |
: Whit at his true talent level or over his head? |
5:00 |
: Probably slightly over |
5:01 |
: I’d bet on a SB decline |
5:01 |
: Best career in order: Devers, Belliger, Beni, Bregman, Hoskins. Did I ace the quiz? |
5:01 |
: Ooh, that’s a tough list of names to put in an order |
5:02 |
: I’m all in on Hoskins, but his age makes it hard to list him first |
5:03 |
: I’m going to say Bellinger, Hoskins, Bregman, Benintendi, Devers |
5:03 |
: I don’t expect that to be popular |
5:03 |
: And it changes if the balls are fixed |
5:04 |
: Bellinger and Hoskins both have 50-60 grade power mixed with an ability to get ideal launch angles |
5:04 |
: They probably lose 10 HR apiece with the old balls |
5:05 |
: Choose 2/3 to start tomorrow: Gausman @ TOR, Glasnow @ MIL, Straily @ PHI. |
5:05 |
: Straily for sure |
5:05 |
: I think I’d do Gausman |
5:05 |
: Michael Taylor a Top 40 OF next year? |
5:05 |
: I’m not sure he’ll start for the Nationals, at least not every day |
5:06 |
: it’s the last year of Harper, they’ll want Taylor to be a depth piece |
5:06 |
: Rank Pham, Souza, Hicks in an OBP keeper league (all the same contract) |
5:06 |
: You’ve done it |
5:06 |
: Think Willie Calhoun can have a Rhys Hoskins type impact these next couple weeks? |
5:06 |
: I don’t think he’ll play enough |
5:06 |
: What’s your biggest hit and miss from this year? Who helped/hurt your self esteem the most? |
5:07 |
: I know my biggest miss, had a chance to trade Ben Zobrist or Kendrys Morales for Tommy Pham in my dynasty league. I wasn’t quite there |
5:08 |
: Too many hits this year with all these bats. Plenty of SP breakouts too. If you didn’t find a half dozen surprise studs per roster, you had a bad year |
5:08 |
: I NEED HELP |
5:08 |
: HELP |
5:08 |
: (as far as I can tell, I have no questions from a James) |
5:08 |
: deGrom or Archer for 2018? |
5:09 |
: deGrom unless Archer is traded |
5:09 |
: The Rays just can’t get him wins |
5:09 |
: Time to wrap it up folks |
5:09 |
: Any regrettable trades this year? |
5:09 |
: That non-trade is my biggest regret |
5:10 |
: I only have one traded that didn’t really work out, but I don’t regret it |
5:10 |
: Dealt Eugenio Suarez, Carter Kieboom, and Jesus Sanchez for Bradley Zimmer in a 20 team, keep 28 |
5:10 |
: This was maybe August 1 |
5:11 |
: I was within range of gaining 10 points in SB with one base thief |
5:11 |
: Zimmer proceeded to utterly vanish |
5:11 |
: and now he’s out for the year |
5:11 |
: but he’s still a lovely building block |
5:11 |
: Olson or Joyce RoS? |
5:11 |
: Olson |
5:11 |
: You better not be spreading your fake chili to this chat or I’m telling the Daves. |
5:12 |
: Dan believes that chili is meat simmered in ketchup and eaten as is |
5:12 |
: no beans, no starches of any kind |
5:12 |
: Garrett Richards, a playoff helper or is that too high of an expectation for him coming back from injury? |
5:12 |
: He’s a solid desperation play |
5:13 |
: If I had to hitch a sinking ship to a tug boat named after a baseball player, I’d pick The Garrett Richards |
5:13 |
: Non-saves league – Chad Green is a top X RP in 2018? |
5:13 |
: I’d consider him irrelevant |
5:13 |
: Charlie Morton or Rich Hill for next year? |
5:13 |
: Tyler Chatwood from a MLB perspective |
5:14 |
: He’s the guy who will get a headscratching 2-3 year, $12MM-$24MM deal |
5:14 |
: He has superb numbers away from Coors Field |
5:14 |
: Do you put ketchup on your hot dog? |
5:15 |
: I hate ketchup, it’s disgusting. I do like barbecue sauce (a lot). I’m aware that’s weird. |
5:15 |
: Better Chance of Happening: Castillo a top 20 SP next year or Conforto being a top 10 OF? |
5:15 |
: Interesting question |
5:16 |
: Because pitchers are prone to immolation, I’ll go with Conforto. But I’m very bullish about Castillo |
5:17 |
: I’ll leave you with this food for thought – do not plan to win Luis Castillo in redraft leagues. He will be massively overdrafted |
5:17 |
: Chad Green is irrelevant?? He has a sub-2 FIP and SIERA, 35% K-BB% and 15% SwSt! He’s a stud. |
5:17 |
: I’d take his 2017 stats, but we have to assume typical regression |
5:17 |
: I read your question wrong though |
5:17 |
: I thought you were saying it was a saves only league |
5:18 |
: That certainly improves the outlook for Green. It’s also a very uncommon format. I don’t know how to value relievers in a non-saves setting |
5:18 |
: Good game folks |
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
none of my questions getting answer nor posted, bad experience.