Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/3/2019

Brad Johnson: We’ll get things kicked off in a few minutes

Jon: What is Cody Bellinger’s value in a dynasty league? I’m looking to compete next year and push in some future depth for present value. Wander Franco + David Dahl + Domingo Santana too low for an initial offer?

Brad Johnson: I suppose it depends on league depth. I’d have Wander ahead of Bellinger in my 20+ teamers. So this does seem possible. If it’s a 12 teamer, then you probably have no chance at Bellinger

Trent: Lux or DeJong rest of season?

Brad Johnson: Are you managing for floor or ceiling

Brad Johnson: DeJong is definitely going to play plenty. Lux could blow him out of the water or barely show up.

Brad Johnson: The more “luck” you need, the better Lux looks.

Brad Johnson: If you can afford to play it safe, then you might choose DeJong’s steady starts.

Brian: In a 30 team league, I just lost Max Muncy and need a 3B to replace him for a playoff matchup next week.  What do you think of Ty France as a replacement option?

Brad Johnson: Excellent for a 30-teamer

Brad Johnson: I can’t imagine finding better

Brad Johnson: That’s a borderline viable replacement in 12-team (with CI).

Brad Johnson: I assume Toro isn’t an option?

Tyler: How would you value Domingo German in an Ottoneu Fgpts league where wins don’t matter?

Brad Johnson: I tend to put players into buckets in FGpts

Brad Johnson: I consider German to be a $5+. This requires a little explanation…

Brad Johnson: FGpts creates a lot of unusual market inefficiencies.

Brad Johnson: The $5 refers to the price I would like to keep him at. I could see going as high as $15.

Brad Johnson: The + refers to perception relative to reality

Brad Johnson: You should have owners in your league who are really keen on German even though there are plenty of $1 facsimiles.

Brad Johnson: And in general, it’s good to stockpile these perception>reality types – especially ahead of arbitration where they’re sure to absorb some dollars away from the guys you want to remain low priced.

Brad Johnson: Plus, they’ll still be tradeable.

Brad Johnson: Time to check rice

Victor Reyes: I’m scraping the bottom of the barrel in my 20 team RF/CF/LF league, and my alternatives to Reyes at RF are a slumping Alex Dickerson, who only plays vs RHP, and Brandon Nimmo.  Is he worth starting?

Brad Johnson: I do think Nimmo is a reasonable stash

bleepbloop: Need a 2b replacement for Muncy in 6×6 with ops: biggio, carp, or Newman?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Biggio

bleepbloop: Hey brad thanks for the chat! In a 10tm keep forever h2h league, Im heading into the playoffs with a bye. Somehow Kyle Tucker, Luzardo, and Julio Urias are all FAs. Which of these do I have to roster for future value even though they won’t help much while going for the win this year?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think you HAVE to roster any of them

Brad Johnson: But there’s a decent chance Tucker and Luzardo get some important action. So they’re at least actionable.

Brad Johnson: These 3 IP starts for Urias are kinda killin’ the mood.

Trout Cannons: How would you rank EE Goldy and Walker at 1B and is one plug and play or are you changing based on matchups?

Brad Johnson: Goldy every day until EE shows he’s healthy. Then play matchups.

Brad Johnson: Walker only when he’s got a juicy matchup and the others have a tough one.

Nick: Do you like Tony Gonsolin or Junior Guerra more for the rest of the year?

Brad Johnson: Can’t say I’m overkeen about either RoS. But my gut instinct is Gonsolin.

Brad Johnson: Chili’s up!

Nolan: I have an oddly structured league with a weekly lock and only three SP slots: pick 3 to start out of Buehler, Kershaw, Castillo, Bauer, and Boyd.

Brad Johnson: I don’t recall if any have 2-starts offhand

Brad Johnson: First three absent matchup info

Dudley: Any chance the Cubs blow it? Can the Mets sink in?

Brad Johnson: Definitely a decent chance they blow it. That’s not a deep pitching staff.

Brad Johnson: Of the four teams who could sneak past them, the Mets are probably the best.

AJ: it’s the playoffs. do you start the hitter with the bad wOBA but good xwOBA, or the guy with a bad xwOBA who is getting good results?

Brad Johnson: I don’t use xwOBA. I’ve seen no evidence that it’s more helpful than misleading

Brad Johnson: I suppose I am aware enough that I’ll look for other reasons to like a xwOBA darling like…

Guest: J.D. Davis at all in keeper consideration for you in a 12 team keep 10?

Brad Johnson: Probably not in that format.

Brad Johnson: By quality, he might be right on the fringe, but there are so many players in that range with a better situation – either lineup role or more guaranteed playing time

Guest: Is the return of Nimmo and Cano going to make guys like McNeil & Davis useless for fantasy ROS? I see a lot of inconsistent pt coming

Brad Johnson: I too look at these returning players as a negative for the Mets in general. Especially Cano. It’s hard to sit him whereas you can easily justify giving Nimmo a lot of rest.

Brad Johnson: Cano is like the 10th or 12th best hitter in the system.

bleepbloop: What should we do with Maeda in keeper leagues? Seems like the Dodgers problem of having too many good starters won’t go away anytime soon. Do you think he’ll stay in the pen or go back to the rotation next year?

Brad Johnson: I expect him to do exactly what he did this year

Brad Johnson: If they start out with enough healthy guys, he’ll open in long relief and transition to starting when needed

Brad Johnson: then back to relief in time for the postseason

Brad Johnson: By now, the pattern is pretty well established

Brad Johnson:

Balked: Are you starting Tanaka at Boston on Sunday or is time to begin using that roster spot to stream him in a 12 team?

Brad Johnson: I’d stream

DJ Tanner: Any hot prospects you have added in the past couple weeks in your deep dynasty leagues?

Brad Johnson: A lot of that adding action happened in July

Brad Johnson: The one guy I added recently who I’m excited about is Parker Chavers

Brad Johnson: He’s probably not eligible to be picked up in your league since he’s yet to be drafted.

Glenn Spankman: How’d you rate the following SP RoS- Partick Sandoval, Gonsolin, and Lyles?

Brad Johnson: 16% tomatoes

Dave: Dustin May or Julio Urias for ’20? (assuming both are in the rotation)

Brad Johnson: I like May more than Urias

Brad Johnson: But… I think Urias gets the longer in-majors leash

Pat G: In a 16 team keep forever, competing now, have too many long term DL. Cut 2 from Yandy, Piscotty, Taillon, Rodon, Pressly, A Hicks and Dom Smith.

Brad Johnson: I would definitely keep Hicks

Brad Johnson: I traded Taillon for Myles Straw in a somewhat similar situation (20-team, can’t roster rookie or younger).

Brad Johnson: (I also desperately need a shot at some stretch run SB)

Trevor: Is Aquino a top 100 pick in a redraft league next year?

Brad Johnson: I’m a little torn on that

Brad Johnson: It’s hard to lean away from that conclusion right now based on the results

Brad Johnson: Hoskins was a top 100 pick after his debut

Brad Johnson: But I can’t shake the Franmil comp

Brad Johnson: There’s an awful lot of risk for devastating slumps

Brad Johnson: Especially after an offseason layoff

Brad Johnson: And the Reds aren’t light on outfielders

AJ: there are some really bad pitchers with really juicy matchups in September. Who would you go with: Nova (@SEA, @DET), Chase Anderson (@MIA, @STL) or Elieser (vs MIL, @SF)?

Brad Johnson: I’d go with Nova or Anderson without too much worry.

Yander: How high are you taking Ryu next year?  And how much of your decision depends on where he lands in free agency?

Brad Johnson: This is premature for many reasons. I don’t draft specific pitchers, I pick roles/categories I need.

Brad Johnson: So I need a sense of the full draft pool before I know where Ryu and his asset class fit

Brad Johnson: We have some tough decisions to make over the offseason too.

Brad Johnson: For instance, I’m tentatively planning to project a sharp decrease in HR along with improved pitching

Brad Johnson: I think the meta is going to look something like “draft stud bat, grab pitchers, get late power”

Brad Johnson: If pitchers do better as a whole, then I’m probably locked into taking hitters when Ryu goes

Brad Johnson: But! This is all conjecture

Vince: How are you looking at players like Gennett, Lowrie, and Stanton, each of whom had a solid 2018 but a miserable 2019?

Brad Johnson: Gennett and Lowrie should be virtually free in any format

Brad Johnson: Stanton is still a major power threat

Brad Johnson: And an early pick

Nicholas: Who has more fantasy value next year: Chris Davis, Khris Davis, or Chris Carter (the erstwhile Astro now poised to break the Mexican League HR record)?

Brad Johnson: Well, that’s the pretty easy Khrash.

baseballdude: gavin lux over bo bichette or santander or eloy this week and next to win the championship?  points league redraft, UTIL spot.

Brad Johnson: I think I’d go Bo

Brad Johnson: https://open.spotify.com/track/4sG3QE7shDNk1DKJwEAiz5?si=bFxA7oThQbiDY…

Brad Johnson: nsfw btw

ts: is it time to cut bait on Murphy and Segura for my 10 team standard categories playoff push?

Brad Johnson: Probably. It’s always a matter of finding upgrades

Brad Johnson: I imagine you can find better matchups

baseballdude: how much do you look at matchups for hitters and pitchers vs. just trusting their talent level ?

Brad Johnson: I’m conditioned to really care about matchups, but there are certain guys who are plug and play even if they have some platoon issues. Charlie Blackmon comes to mind.

Norman: Is my fantasy season really going to come down to how someone named “Randy Dobnak” performs tonight?

Brad Johnson: Against the Red Sox! Oh no…

Brad Johnson: That’s a tough spot, I assume your back is against the wall.

Brad Johnson: Good luck

Orange WHIPS: Streamer for this week: Desclafani vs ARI, Lamet vs COL, or Alcantara vs KC?

Brad Johnson: Do you have a stat you need more than others?

Brad Johnson: Absent more info, those are all playable

Pokey Reese: 2019 playoff push help! Do you keep German Marquez, Yonny Chirinos, or Maeda? Stuck with all 3 and considering cutting to free up roster spots to push for a title these next 3 weeks.

Brad Johnson: Are these otherwise players you’d keep?

Brad Johnson: like what’s the opportunity cost here? They seem like easy cuts to me in a typical league.

Dave: Does Gary Sanchez still have the gear we thought he had for the first couple months of the season (and, obviously, 2017), or is this just what he is now?

Brad Johnson: nonono

Brad Johnson: ALL OF IT is what Sanchez is

Brad Johnson: He’s the blazing fire

Brad Johnson: He’s the writhing impotent worm

pat burrell’s ghost: assuming correa comes back healthy, in a 6×6 [+obp=] h2h redraft, would you rather solak/profar/biggio at 2B? [muncy :(] and i guess if he doesnt, which of solak/biggio? THANK YOU!!!!

Brad Johnson: I like Biggio most, Solak has too high a GB rate

Glenn Spankman: Aquino is a much better defender and baserunner than Franmil so he’d be in less danger of losing playing time. Aquino also swings more often than Franmil which means lower K rate and higher BA for those in BA leagues.

Brad Johnson: Agree about the first point. Jury is out on the latter imo

bleepbloop: Assuming playing time, who do you take next year 6×6 with ops Tucker or Robles?

Brad Johnson: Robles for me

Brad Johnson: I know Tucker has big MiLB steal numbers, but I expect him to rarely run in the majors

Brad Johnson: So those 25-30 SB for Robles are big. Especially since I think he’ll improve dramatically upon his ghastly soft contact rate.

Greg: What kind of odds could I have gotten before the season on Stanton being tied for 18th on the Yankees in HRs?

Brad Johnson: Given his history of injury issues, I bet it would have been as outlandish as you’d hope

Dave: Where do you think Danny Santana gets drafted next year in 12-team mixed? Has had a hell of a season, but slumping a bit down the stretch… and he’s Danny Santana.

Brad Johnson: Probably isn’t more than a late-round flier imo

Brad Johnson: If your league has one of those too-clever owners who drafts entirely on previous year production, maybe he goes earlier

Brad Johnson: And you can chuckle quietly to yourself while he takes a victory lap in the chat

Jeff: How would you rank their long term combined hit/power tools: Tatis, Bichette, Lux?

Brad Johnson: You mean like adding up 20/80 scores?

Brad Johnson: Probably Bichette, Lux, Tatis

Brad Johnson: Which kinda tells you how far you can leverage just two 20/80 scores

Brad Johnson: Nobody, including me, would tell you to pick anybody other than Tatis first of that group

Nick: Vlad Jr. is sporting a -19.4 UZR/150 and -4 DRS this year.  How many seasons does he maintain 3B eligibility?

Brad Johnson: I think he can stick

Brad Johnson: He flashes more than enough ability, he’s just rough around the edges

Brad Johnson: I can watch him throw baseballs all day

joe: Dubon a definite keeper in my NL 12 teamer?

Brad Johnson: Depends on how many you get, but in general, yes

Riker: after that scalding august, is kyle seager back?

Brad Johnson: It sure looked like it

Brad Johnson: plus a juiced ball

Brad Johnson: I delved into him a couple weeks ago and the numbers were *very* vintage Seager

2020: %chance Gallegos is closing for STL next year?

Brad Johnson: 35?

Pokey Reese: Do you see Stripling getting more starts over these next few weeks?

Brad Johnson: Yea, at least 1 or 2

joh n: safe to drop caleb smith in redraft? there was a time this season i thought he’d made the leap from good to really good (sigh)

Brad Johnson: Yep

Brad Johnson: I was always a little worried about him holding up.

Brad Johnson: The peripherals were brittle-looking

PB: If you are looking to help ratios over next few weeks what RP would you consider adding?

Brad Johnson: Uh, this is not a great year for that…

Brad Johnson: The guys I’m targeting like Clase are not at all safe

Dave: re: Gary Sanchez. I think I probably phrased that poorly… Is it reasonable to expect him to carry a .265+ BA (to go with his awesome power) over an entire season at this point, or has the physical toll of catching simply caught up with him?

Brad Johnson: Since HR are such a large part of his AVG, you’re basically stuck in feast or famine

Brad Johnson: His 25th to 75th percentile outcomes in AVG range from something like .205-.260.

Brad Johnson: Most players have a much tighter range

Brad Johnson: In any case, don’t expect a .265 average – that’s a very friendly outcome

Brad Johnson: He needs to be closer to a HR per 10 PA to hit the upper range

Riker: okay to drop khris davis for josh naylor in h2h redraft leagues? god knows how much damage the former did to my playoff push, but i made the cut and now i need to get serious about OF production for the last few weeks

Brad Johnson: Naylor isn’t much of an upgrade. Though yes, I agree with this as an initial step. Look for matchups.

nahtan : I was too blind to see that my h2h playoff rotation was essentially being propped by Ryu’s blinding early season greatness. how screwed am i now that regression is rearing its ugly head?

Brad Johnson: This year? Not as screwed as normal.

3BB2K: Brad, do you ever play Beat the Streak? thanks

Brad Johnson: I used to a few years ago

Brad Johnson: I got tired of bombing in the 20s

Brad Johnson: just when you start to think you’re good at it, you zero out

Brad Johnson: and by you I mean I

3BB2K: no, all of us if lucky enough to get into the 20s

Al Gone Quinn: I’m in a league that factors in holds and saves, i.e. Ottoneu FGpts. In this, my 3rd year, I’ve concluded pursuing the guys who get saves can be a thankless task that usually costs more money than simply going after arms with good stuff who occasionally get holds. Amir Garrett and Hunter Harvey are typical guys I go after. Is this thinking properly concluded or simply deluded?

Al Gone Quinn: Does Ty France have to hit certain targets the rest of September to get a starting role next year?

Brad Johnson: Let’s start with France

Brad Johnson: I don’t think he can do anything to guarantee a job

Brad Johnson: 2B is a place the Padres will look to upgrade

Brad Johnson: They have limited ways to improve their roster as it’s basically decent across the board

Brad Johnson: 2B being the main exception

Brad Johnson: So, assuming they don’t find a Whit Merrifield, France will still need to compete with Urias and others

Brad Johnson: Now back to the relievers…

Brad Johnson: It’s a mixed bag

Brad Johnson: The closers are the most reliable sources of RP points

Brad Johnson: But if it’s ottoneu for example, you can take 20 stabs at finding a cheap RP for the price of one Kenley Jansen

DonJulio: I find that overvalue Yarbrough due to his microscopic whip. Why do others not value him so highly?

Brad Johnson: I’ve recently decided he’s a harder throwing Jamie Moyer

Brad Johnson: He just isn’t visually impressive in this era

Brad Johnson: time to wrap it out

Clint: Keston coming back in 2019 or no?

Brad Johnson: Huh? I thought he just had a hammy strain? He’ll be fine

PD: Is Will Smith (C) going to be similar to Gary Sanchez in terms of performance?

Brad Johnson: I think he’s a more well-rounded/balanced hitter

Brad Johnson: The value might shake out pretty similarly

Brad Johnson: Though in real terms, he’s much better than Sanchez

lipton: hi brad – does answering a question about why you won’t answer non-baseball questions count as answering a non-baseball question?

Brad Johnson: I’ll answer non-baseball questions

Brad Johnson: You just have to find one of my few non-baseball interests

Brad Johnson: Those are basically fantasy fiction and certain specific video games.

nahtan: know it’s a bit earlier for this but, is jose ramirez still a top 5/10 in redraft next season? not as concerned so much about his earlier season struggles as his power-sapping hamate injury

Brad Johnson: No, but the hamate issue will be fully healed by then

Brad Johnson: Or just about

Tobias: Chances Paddack gets shut down sometime soon?

Brad Johnson: Pretty high

Batman: Any interest in Josh James for next year?

Brad Johnson: Some. But the Astros tend to have a crowded pitching staff

smith: i’m dropping matt carpenter for abraham toro-hernandez. this started as a question but i talked myself into it just by typing it out

popping locking: mitch keller or brendan mckay ros (redraft)

Brad Johnson: McKay

Brad Johnson: gg hax