Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/3/2019
by Brad Johnson
September 3, 2019
Behold! A chat transcript.
| 3:55 |
: We’ll get things kicked off in a few minutes
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| 3:58 |
: What is Cody Bellinger’s value in a dynasty league? I’m looking to compete next year and push in some future depth for present value. Wander Franco + David Dahl + Domingo Santana too low for an initial offer?
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| 3:59 |
: I suppose it depends on league depth. I’d have Wander ahead of Bellinger in my 20+ teamers. So this does seem possible. If it’s a 12 teamer, then you probably have no chance at Bellinger
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| 3:59 |
: Lux or DeJong rest of season?
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| 4:00 |
: Are you managing for floor or ceiling
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| 4:00 |
: DeJong is definitely going to play plenty. Lux could blow him out of the water or barely show up.
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| 4:00 |
: The more “luck” you need, the better Lux looks.
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| 4:01 |
: If you can afford to play it safe, then you might choose DeJong’s steady starts.
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| 4:01 |
: In a 30 team league, I just lost Max Muncy and need a 3B to replace him for a playoff matchup next week. What do you think of Ty France as a replacement option?
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| 4:01 |
: Excellent for a 30-teamer
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| 4:01 |
: I can’t imagine finding better
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| 4:01 |
: That’s a borderline viable replacement in 12-team (with CI).
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| 4:02 |
: I assume Toro isn’t an option?
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| 4:02 |
: How would you value Domingo German in an Ottoneu Fgpts league where wins don’t matter?
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| 4:02 |
: I tend to put players into buckets in FGpts
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| 4:02 |
: I consider German to be a $5+. This requires a little explanation…
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| 4:03 |
: FGpts creates a lot of unusual market inefficiencies.
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| 4:03 |
: The $5 refers to the price I would like to keep him at. I could see going as high as $15.
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| 4:03 |
: The + refers to perception relative to reality
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| 4:04 |
: You should have owners in your league who are really keen on German even though there are plenty of $1 facsimiles.
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| 4:05 |
: And in general, it’s good to stockpile these perception>reality types – especially ahead of arbitration where they’re sure to absorb some dollars away from the guys you want to remain low priced.
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| 4:05 |
: Plus, they’ll still be tradeable.
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| 4:05 |
: Time to check rice
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| 4:06 |
: I’m scraping the bottom of the barrel in my 20 team RF/CF/LF league, and my alternatives to Reyes at RF are a slumping Alex Dickerson, who only plays vs RHP, and Brandon Nimmo. Is he worth starting?
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| 4:06 |
: I do think Nimmo is a reasonable stash
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| 4:06 |
: Need a 2b replacement for Muncy in 6×6 with ops: biggio, carp, or Newman?
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| 4:06 |
: Gimme Biggio
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| 4:07 |
: Hey brad thanks for the chat! In a 10tm keep forever h2h league, Im heading into the playoffs with a bye. Somehow Kyle Tucker, Luzardo, and Julio Urias are all FAs. Which of these do I have to roster for future value even though they won’t help much while going for the win this year?
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| 4:07 |
: I don’t think you HAVE to roster any of them
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| 4:08 |
: But there’s a decent chance Tucker and Luzardo get some important action. So they’re at least actionable.
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| 4:08 |
: These 3 IP starts for Urias are kinda killin’ the mood.
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| 4:08 |
: How would you rank EE Goldy and Walker at 1B and is one plug and play or are you changing based on matchups?
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| 4:08 |
: Goldy every day until EE shows he’s healthy. Then play matchups.
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| 4:09 |
: Walker only when he’s got a juicy matchup and the others have a tough one.
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| 4:10 |
: Do you like Tony Gonsolin or Junior Guerra more for the rest of the year?
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| 4:10 |
: Can’t say I’m overkeen about either RoS. But my gut instinct is Gonsolin.
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| 4:13 |
: Chili’s up!
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| 4:14 |
: I have an oddly structured league with a weekly lock and only three SP slots: pick 3 to start out of Buehler, Kershaw, Castillo, Bauer, and Boyd.
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| 4:14 |
: I don’t recall if any have 2-starts offhand
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| 4:14 |
: First three absent matchup info
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| 4:14 |
: Any chance the Cubs blow it? Can the Mets sink in?
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| 4:14 |
: Definitely a decent chance they blow it. That’s not a deep pitching staff.
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| 4:15 |
: Of the four teams who could sneak past them, the Mets are probably the best.
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| 4:16 |
: it’s the playoffs. do you start the hitter with the bad wOBA but good xwOBA, or the guy with a bad xwOBA who is getting good results?
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| 4:17 |
: I don’t use xwOBA. I’ve seen no evidence that it’s more helpful than misleading
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| 4:18 |
: I suppose I am aware enough that I’ll look for other reasons to like a xwOBA darling like…
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| 4:18 |
: J.D. Davis at all in keeper consideration for you in a 12 team keep 10?
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| 4:18 |
: Probably not in that format.
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| 4:19 |
: By quality, he might be right on the fringe, but there are so many players in that range with a better situation – either lineup role or more guaranteed playing time
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| 4:19 |
: Is the return of Nimmo and Cano going to make guys like McNeil & Davis useless for fantasy ROS? I see a lot of inconsistent pt coming
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| 4:20 |
: I too look at these returning players as a negative for the Mets in general. Especially Cano. It’s hard to sit him whereas you can easily justify giving Nimmo a lot of rest.
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| 4:21 |
: Cano is like the 10th or 12th best hitter in the system.
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| 4:21 |
: What should we do with Maeda in keeper leagues? Seems like the Dodgers problem of having too many good starters won’t go away anytime soon. Do you think he’ll stay in the pen or go back to the rotation next year?
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| 4:21 |
: I expect him to do exactly what he did this year
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| 4:21 |
: If they start out with enough healthy guys, he’ll open in long relief and transition to starting when needed
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| 4:21 |
: then back to relief in time for the postseason
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| 4:22 |
: By now, the pattern is pretty well established
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| 4:22 |
:
Huge surprise.
Dodgers moving Kenta Maeda to bullpen dlvr.it/RCLtXN
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| 4:22 |
: Are you starting Tanaka at Boston on Sunday or is time to begin using that roster spot to stream him in a 12 team?
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| 4:22 |
: I’d stream
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| 4:23 |
: Any hot prospects you have added in the past couple weeks in your deep dynasty leagues?
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| 4:23 |
: A lot of that adding action happened in July
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| 4:23 |
: The one guy I added recently who I’m excited about is Parker Chavers
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| 4:24 |
: He’s probably not eligible to be picked up in your league since he’s yet to be drafted.
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| 4:24 |
: How’d you rate the following SP RoS- Partick Sandoval, Gonsolin, and Lyles?
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| 4:24 |
: 16% tomatoes
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| 4:24 |
: Dustin May or Julio Urias for ’20? (assuming both are in the rotation)
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| 4:24 |
: I like May more than Urias
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| 4:25 |
: But… I think Urias gets the longer in-majors leash
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| 4:25 |
: In a 16 team keep forever, competing now, have too many long term DL. Cut 2 from Yandy, Piscotty, Taillon, Rodon, Pressly, A Hicks and Dom Smith.
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| 4:25 |
: I would definitely keep Hicks
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| 4:26 |
: I traded Taillon for Myles Straw in a somewhat similar situation (20-team, can’t roster rookie or younger).
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| 4:26 |
: (I also desperately need a shot at some stretch run SB)
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| 4:26 |
: Is Aquino a top 100 pick in a redraft league next year?
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| 4:26 |
: I’m a little torn on that
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| 4:27 |
: It’s hard to lean away from that conclusion right now based on the results
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| 4:27 |
: Hoskins was a top 100 pick after his debut
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| 4:27 |
: But I can’t shake the Franmil comp
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| 4:27 |
: There’s an awful lot of risk for devastating slumps
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| 4:27 |
: Especially after an offseason layoff
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| 4:28 |
: And the Reds aren’t light on outfielders
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| 4:28 |
: there are some really bad pitchers with really juicy matchups in September. Who would you go with: Nova (@SEA, @DET), Chase Anderson (@MIA, @STL) or Elieser (vs MIL, @SF)?
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| 4:28 |
: I’d go with Nova or Anderson without too much worry.
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| 4:28 |
: How high are you taking Ryu next year? And how much of your decision depends on where he lands in free agency?
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| 4:29 |
: This is premature for many reasons. I don’t draft specific pitchers, I pick roles/categories I need.
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| 4:30 |
: So I need a sense of the full draft pool before I know where Ryu and his asset class fit
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| 4:30 |
: We have some tough decisions to make over the offseason too.
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| 4:30 |
: For instance, I’m tentatively planning to project a sharp decrease in HR along with improved pitching
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| 4:31 |
: I think the meta is going to look something like “draft stud bat, grab pitchers, get late power”
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| 4:31 |
: If pitchers do better as a whole, then I’m probably locked into taking hitters when Ryu goes
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| 4:32 |
: But! This is all conjecture
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| 4:32 |
: How are you looking at players like Gennett, Lowrie, and Stanton, each of whom had a solid 2018 but a miserable 2019?
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| 4:32 |
: Gennett and Lowrie should be virtually free in any format
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| 4:32 |
: Stanton is still a major power threat
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| 4:32 |
: And an early pick
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| 4:33 |
: Who has more fantasy value next year: Chris Davis, Khris Davis, or Chris Carter (the erstwhile Astro now poised to break the Mexican League HR record)?
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| 4:33 |
: Well, that’s the pretty easy Khrash.
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| 4:33 |
: gavin lux over bo bichette or santander or eloy this week and next to win the championship? points league redraft, UTIL spot.
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| 4:33 |
: I think I’d go Bo
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| 4:35 |
: nsfw btw
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| 4:36 |
: is it time to cut bait on Murphy and Segura for my 10 team standard categories playoff push?
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| 4:36 |
: Probably. It’s always a matter of finding upgrades
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| 4:37 |
: I imagine you can find better matchups
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| 4:37 |
: how much do you look at matchups for hitters and pitchers vs. just trusting their talent level ?
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| 4:37 |
: I’m conditioned to really care about matchups, but there are certain guys who are plug and play even if they have some platoon issues. Charlie Blackmon comes to mind.
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| 4:38 |
: Is my fantasy season really going to come down to how someone named “Randy Dobnak” performs tonight?
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| 4:38 |
: Against the Red Sox! Oh no…
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| 4:38 |
: That’s a tough spot, I assume your back is against the wall.
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| 4:38 |
: Good luck
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| 4:38 |
: Streamer for this week: Desclafani vs ARI, Lamet vs COL, or Alcantara vs KC?
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| 4:39 |
: Do you have a stat you need more than others?
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| 4:39 |
: Absent more info, those are all playable
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| 4:39 |
: 2019 playoff push help! Do you keep German Marquez, Yonny Chirinos, or Maeda? Stuck with all 3 and considering cutting to free up roster spots to push for a title these next 3 weeks.
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| 4:39 |
: Are these otherwise players you’d keep?
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| 4:40 |
: like what’s the opportunity cost here? They seem like easy cuts to me in a typical league.
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| 4:40 |
: Does Gary Sanchez still have the gear we thought he had for the first couple months of the season (and, obviously, 2017), or is this just what he is now?
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| 4:40 |
: nonono
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| 4:41 |
: ALL OF IT is what Sanchez is
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| 4:41 |
: He’s the blazing fire
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| 4:41 |
: He’s the writhing impotent worm
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| 4:42 |
: assuming correa comes back healthy, in a 6×6 [+obp=] h2h redraft, would you rather solak/profar/biggio at 2B? [muncy :(] and i guess if he doesnt, which of solak/biggio? THANK YOU!!!!
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| 4:42 |
: I like Biggio most, Solak has too high a GB rate
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| 4:43 |
: Aquino is a much better defender and baserunner than Franmil so he’d be in less danger of losing playing time. Aquino also swings more often than Franmil which means lower K rate and higher BA for those in BA leagues.
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| 4:43 |
: Agree about the first point. Jury is out on the latter imo
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| 4:43 |
: Assuming playing time, who do you take next year 6×6 with ops Tucker or Robles?
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| 4:43 |
: Robles for me
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| 4:44 |
: I know Tucker has big MiLB steal numbers, but I expect him to rarely run in the majors
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| 4:45 |
: So those 25-30 SB for Robles are big. Especially since I think he’ll improve dramatically upon his ghastly soft contact rate.
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| 4:45 |
: What kind of odds could I have gotten before the season on Stanton being tied for 18th on the Yankees in HRs?
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| 4:46 |
: Given his history of injury issues, I bet it would have been as outlandish as you’d hope
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| 4:46 |
: Where do you think Danny Santana gets drafted next year in 12-team mixed? Has had a hell of a season, but slumping a bit down the stretch… and he’s Danny Santana.
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| 4:47 |
: Probably isn’t more than a late-round flier imo
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| 4:47 |
: If your league has one of those too-clever owners who drafts entirely on previous year production, maybe he goes earlier
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| 4:47 |
: And you can chuckle quietly to yourself while he takes a victory lap in the chat
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| 4:48 |
: How would you rank their long term combined hit/power tools: Tatis, Bichette, Lux?
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| 4:49 |
: You mean like adding up 20/80 scores?
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| 4:49 |
: Probably Bichette, Lux, Tatis
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| 4:50 |
: Which kinda tells you how far you can leverage just two 20/80 scores
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| 4:51 |
: Nobody, including me, would tell you to pick anybody other than Tatis first of that group
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| 4:51 |
: Vlad Jr. is sporting a -19.4 UZR/150 and -4 DRS this year. How many seasons does he maintain 3B eligibility?
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| 4:51 |
: I think he can stick
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| 4:51 |
: He flashes more than enough ability, he’s just rough around the edges
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| 4:51 |
: I can watch him throw baseballs all day
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| 4:51 |
: Dubon a definite keeper in my NL 12 teamer?
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| 4:52 |
: Depends on how many you get, but in general, yes
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| 4:52 |
: after that scalding august, is kyle seager back?
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| 4:52 |
: It sure looked like it
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| 4:52 |
: plus a juiced ball
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| 4:52 |
: I delved into him a couple weeks ago and the numbers were *very* vintage Seager
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| 4:53 |
: %chance Gallegos is closing for STL next year?
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| 4:53 |
: 35?
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| 4:53 |
: Do you see Stripling getting more starts over these next few weeks?
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| 4:54 |
: Yea, at least 1 or 2
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| 4:54 |
: safe to drop caleb smith in redraft? there was a time this season i thought he’d made the leap from good to really good (sigh)
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| 4:54 |
: Yep
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| 4:54 |
: I was always a little worried about him holding up.
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| 4:54 |
: The peripherals were brittle-looking
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| 4:55 |
: If you are looking to help ratios over next few weeks what RP would you consider adding?
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| 4:55 |
: Uh, this is not a great year for that…
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| 4:55 |
: The guys I’m targeting like Clase are not at all safe
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| 4:56 |
: re: Gary Sanchez. I think I probably phrased that poorly… Is it reasonable to expect him to carry a .265+ BA (to go with his awesome power) over an entire season at this point, or has the physical toll of catching simply caught up with him?
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| 4:56 |
: Since HR are such a large part of his AVG, you’re basically stuck in feast or famine
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| 4:57 |
: His 25th to 75th percentile outcomes in AVG range from something like .205-.260.
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| 4:57 |
: Most players have a much tighter range
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| 4:57 |
: In any case, don’t expect a .265 average – that’s a very friendly outcome
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| 4:57 |
: He needs to be closer to a HR per 10 PA to hit the upper range
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| 4:58 |
: okay to drop khris davis for josh naylor in h2h redraft leagues? god knows how much damage the former did to my playoff push, but i made the cut and now i need to get serious about OF production for the last few weeks
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| 4:58 |
: Naylor isn’t much of an upgrade. Though yes, I agree with this as an initial step. Look for matchups.
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| 4:58 |
: I was too blind to see that my h2h playoff rotation was essentially being propped by Ryu’s blinding early season greatness. how screwed am i now that regression is rearing its ugly head?
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| 4:59 |
: This year? Not as screwed as normal.
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| 4:59 |
: Brad, do you ever play Beat the Streak? thanks
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| 4:59 |
: I used to a few years ago
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| 4:59 |
: I got tired of bombing in the 20s
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| 5:00 |
: just when you start to think you’re good at it, you zero out
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| 5:00 |
: and by you I mean I
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| 5:00 |
: no, all of us if lucky enough to get into the 20s
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| 5:00 |
: I’m in a league that factors in holds and saves, i.e. Ottoneu FGpts. In this, my 3rd year, I’ve concluded pursuing the guys who get saves can be a thankless task that usually costs more money than simply going after arms with good stuff who occasionally get holds. Amir Garrett and Hunter Harvey are typical guys I go after. Is this thinking properly concluded or simply deluded?
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| 5:00 |
: Does Ty France have to hit certain targets the rest of September to get a starting role next year?
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| 5:01 |
: Let’s start with France
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| 5:01 |
: I don’t think he can do anything to guarantee a job
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| 5:01 |
: 2B is a place the Padres will look to upgrade
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| 5:01 |
: They have limited ways to improve their roster as it’s basically decent across the board
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| 5:01 |
: 2B being the main exception
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| 5:02 |
: So, assuming they don’t find a Whit Merrifield, France will still need to compete with Urias and others
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| 5:03 |
: Now back to the relievers…
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| 5:03 |
: It’s a mixed bag
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| 5:03 |
: The closers are the most reliable sources of RP points
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| 5:04 |
: But if it’s ottoneu for example, you can take 20 stabs at finding a cheap RP for the price of one Kenley Jansen
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| 5:04 |
: I find that overvalue Yarbrough due to his microscopic whip. Why do others not value him so highly?
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| 5:04 |
: I’ve recently decided he’s a harder throwing Jamie Moyer
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| 5:05 |
: He just isn’t visually impressive in this era
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| 5:05 |
: time to wrap it out
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| 5:05 |
: Keston coming back in 2019 or no?
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| 5:05 |
: Huh? I thought he just had a hammy strain? He’ll be fine
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| 5:05 |
: Is Will Smith (C) going to be similar to Gary Sanchez in terms of performance?
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| 5:06 |
: I think he’s a more well-rounded/balanced hitter
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| 5:06 |
: The value might shake out pretty similarly
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| 5:06 |
: Though in real terms, he’s much better than Sanchez
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| 5:06 |
: hi brad – does answering a question about why you won’t answer non-baseball questions count as answering a non-baseball question?
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| 5:06 |
: I’ll answer non-baseball questions
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| 5:07 |
: You just have to find one of my few non-baseball interests
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| 5:07 |
: Those are basically fantasy fiction and certain specific video games.
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| 5:07 |
: know it’s a bit earlier for this but, is jose ramirez still a top 5/10 in redraft next season? not as concerned so much about his earlier season struggles as his power-sapping hamate injury
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| 5:08 |
: No, but the hamate issue will be fully healed by then
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| 5:08 |
: Or just about
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| 5:08 |
: Chances Paddack gets shut down sometime soon?
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| 5:08 |
: Pretty high
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| 5:08 |
: Any interest in Josh James for next year?
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| 5:08 |
: Some. But the Astros tend to have a crowded pitching staff
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| 5:08 |
: i’m dropping matt carpenter for abraham toro-hernandez. this started as a question but i talked myself into it just by typing it out
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| 5:08 |
: mitch keller or brendan mckay ros (redraft)
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| 5:08 |
: McKay
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| 5:08 |
: gg hax
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