Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/25/2018

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a moment.

hscer: What’s the closest money battle you’ve ever seen during the final week of a roto league?

Brad Johnson: Not sure exactly what you mean by money battle. I’ve won and lost seasons by a margin of 1 run. One time back before Yahoo went to extra decimals to tie break, I lost by half a point overall and tied the winner in WHIP.

Brad Johnson: I still maintain I would have won with an extra decimal place

99: Drop Dozier in a dynasty?

Brad Johnson: That’s going to depend on the size and shape. That you’re even asking tells me this isn’t a 20 team keep ’em all scenario

Brad Johnson: In which case, if you just have to weigh what you’ve getting relative to what you’re giving up.

cak199164: do you drop Jeffress in a redraft if no good news come before today’s lineup lockup? need to win saves in H2H championship matchup but also tight in ERA and WHIP(brewers also day off on Thursday). If you do, pick up Will Smith or Segio Romo(shaky but no off days for Rays)?

Brad Johnson: Smith and Romo are both better plays than Jeffress imo

Brad Johnson: actually… gimme a minute to check who the Giants are playing besides the Pads

Brad Johnson: Dodgers… well I guess you can consider this all a series of coin flips. I’d still bet on Smith or Romo personally.

King Buzzo: As a pure ratio play, how do you feel about Syndergaard tonight vs the Braves?  Over/under 3.86/1.00?

Brad Johnson: EZ over on the WHIP. The Braves have been beating up some seriously good pitchers lately. And Thor is looking like Vince Velasquez these days.

Brad Johnson: I’m using him, but I’m not terribly excited about it.

Dave Kingman: 12 Team Auction Roto 5×5 with OBP instead of AVG.  Can keep four. Arenado-$25; Snell-$5; Hicks-$7; Shaw-$6, T Anderson-$3, Villar-$8; Morton-$5

Didn’t know if the general lack of SBs should make me consider Villar/Anderson?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think so. It’s Arenado, Snell, and Hicks for sure.

Brad Johnson: The options for the fourth spot aren’t very interesting. Villar is overpriced. Morton’s close to done but a decent value, Shaw’s maybe a $6-$8 asset. Anderson $1-$5.

DJ Tanner: 5×5 roto dynasty league (OPS), pick my last two keepers for 2019: Folty, Nimmo, Aaron Hicks, German Marquez

Brad Johnson: I avoid pitchers whenever I have the option so my gut says Hicks and Nimmo. However, you should adjust to your team construction. OFers tend to be an easy position to patch.

hscer: top x paying spots with people still jockeying for position, rather than straight gaps from 1-2, is what I meant

Brad Johnson: 6 of 12?

Brad Johnson: Maybe 5?

King Donko of Punchstania: Is Heaney a keeper at $4? 11-team QS league, no keeper limit

King Donko of Punchstania: What’s your outlook for Scott Kingery next season?

King Donko of Punchstania: What is going on with Thor? Do you believe he will reach ace level with further development?

Brad Johnson: Slow start to the chat so I’ll consider your spam wall 🙂

Brad Johnson: I think you can keep Heaney for $4 if you personally like him. In an 11-team format, everything is easily replaced, especially Glob-tier pitching.

Brad Johnson: I didn’t expect Kingery to begin the season in the majors, and I think that ended up being a mistake. He’s always needed to adjust to each level. I love him as a buy low target so long as you’re actually buying low.

Brad Johnson: Increasingly good chance he’s an MLB utility guy, but there’s still 15/20 upside with decent AVG/OBP

Brad Johnson: Thor certainly has all the raw talent one could want from a starter. But he needs to learn how to pitch better now that the league can handle velocity. He might just be a frustrating guy going forward.

Bruce: Can you rank for next year Jake Cave, Brandon Low, Matt Olson

Brad Johnson: Olson, Lowe, Cave imo

Not Chris Smith: Please keep 2 to balance out your 5 stud keeper bats ($260 budget, 12 team roto): $25 Gerrit Cole, $4 Chapman, $4 Tim Anderson, $29 Blackmon.  Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Chapman assuming no other 3B

Brad Johnson: Then probably Blackmon

Brad Johnson: I don’t mind paying a lot to ensure a premium 5 category bat.

Bing Devine: How low has Lewis Brinson’s stock fallen after this year, and is he worth holding for 2019?  Is his most likely outcome a low (or extremely low) AVG/OBP with excellent defense and above-average power for a CF?

Bing Devine: re: last question on Brinson – dynasty league

Brad Johnson: I think you have to stick with him in a deep dynasty. Or find somebody willing to sell themselves on the upside.

Brad Johnson: I don’t see much hope for the batting barring a breakout. But that’s not out of the question. And he does have some margin for error because of the defense.

Marte: How confident are you cutting Marte now? Unlikely he returns?

Brad Johnson: If he returns, I doubt he’ll steal. And that’s why you own him.

Brad Johnson: And yea, the Pirates have no reason to take a risk.

shaloo: Hey Brad, I play in a re-draft 5×5 – standard categories (QS in place of W & OBP in place of AVG). Would like to revise categories next season to make middle relievers and TB openers/long relievers fantasy relevant. Any suggestions on what to add? Have considered Holds, SV + Hold, switching K to K/9 but I see limitations with each approach. Also unsure what offensive category to add (if needed) to balance out. Thank you.

Brad Johnson: Well, the category that most favors Followers is Ws. I’m opposed to QS in place of W and this new trend only adds to the ammo.

Brad Johnson: I’d suggest replacing QS with W and leaving it 5×5 OBP

Angelus Novus: Do you like Josh James tonight in Toronto? Think he gets another start this week?

Brad Johnson: I do like him in a general sense. He’s a volatile play though.

Brad Johnson: As for the second start, I wouldn’t bet on it. Maybe 33% chance?

Bob Villar: I’m in the same league as King Donko, I’m grabbing Kingery TONIGHT

Angelus Novus: Who do you think hits more bombs next year, Franmil or Renfroe?

Brad Johnson: Renfroe is my pick.

Brad Johnson: I stand by this article from early August.

Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/posts/next-khris-davis-20696563

Coach K: Crystal ball… Pivetta, Rodan, Grey, Velasquez, and MusGrove for 2019. Rank and why?

Brad Johnson: For the record, I have an aversion to ranking players. It’s distracting

Brad Johnson: The point of fantasy is to manage categories. Ranks are only helpful because people slavishly follow them. Which means an awareness of them can help with resource planning

Brad Johnson: I’m not a big fan of Velasquez as a fantasy asset. The others are great dart throwers from the upper end of the Glob.

DJ Tanner: Which Glasnow should we expect in 2019? The high 4’s ERA guy, or mid 3’s with K upside he has been since the trade.

Brad Johnson: 4.00 ERA, lots o’ Ks.

micah: Can you recommend any sneaky hitters or pitchers as some teams give their guys extra rest over the last few days of the regular season?

Brad Johnson: Roman Quinn is a personal favorite of mine.

Brad Johnson: I need to publish on him soon to establish myself as The Quinn Guy

Brad Johnson: He’s definitely going to start next season.

Brad Johnson: Barring injury. He’s always injured.

hscer: “But he needs to learn how to pitch better now that the league can handle velocity.” Severino having this problem too? The league learned in almost an instant if this is the case though.

Brad Johnson: Eh, not really. Severino walked into the league not able to beat anybody with heat. Then he broke out with better breaking ball command. I think his slump was just a temporary command blip.

Brad Johnson: When everything isn’t working together, he’s just a guy

Anonymous: Is Walker Buehler the Dodger’s ace next year?

Brad Johnson: Probably still Kershaw, but Buehler looks to be among the few pitchers above the Glob

DJ: Are you targeting any sort of under the radar hitters for the next 5 days? The Hicks injury may force me to turn to Grossman or Josh Bell (hot, volume plays) or Gyorko (who gets some LHP). Thanks.

Brad Johnson: I have a Gyorko claim out too. Voit, Quinn if you need SB, Palka for HR, Tony Kemp appears to have some starts coming his way

Brad Johnson: My wish for this postseason is Tony Kemp going wild.

Bob Villar: Jesus Aguilar or Matt Olson OBP league for 2019?

Brad Johnson: I like Olson more than Aguilar. I might be alone.

Willie hears ya,Willie dont care: any streamer recommendations for this week?

Brad Johnson: I write a daily streamer column which I link in The Daily Grind.

Brad Johnson: It’s right at the very top of the post.

Brad Johnson: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-daily-grind-go-away-rain/

Shenanigans: Paul DeJong didn’t quite maintain this season, but his counting stats don’t seem too abysmal. I’m inclined to believe his injury slowed him down even while active, but is he worth keeping around when I’ve got Merrifield/Mondesi at 2b/SS in 12-team H2H league (Keep 10)?

Brad Johnson: I love DeJong as a buy low rebound candidate. But for your format I’d focus on finding aces over a backup middle infielder.

Anonymous: I keep hearing rumblings that LeClerc is bound to fall apart because of walk rate, but he has walked 6 in his last 19. That doesn’t scream huge issue to me, but is that high enough of a rate to worry for a closer?

Brad Johnson: That’s outdated talk

Brad Johnson: Based on his past, I was highly skeptical he’d be a high value closer this year. Eventually, he proved that his command is actually improved this year without a commensurate increase in hits allowed (a common issue when effectively wild pitchers lose the wildness)

Brad Johnson: He’s a top 10 closer. Use without worry.

Brad Johnson: Could he come back next year with crappy command? Sure. That’s always a risk for these pop-up elite relievers. See Knebel, Corey

Milton : Thanks for the chat Brad. Keep 6, I have Freeman, Acuna and Sale. Next 3..Who do I keep out of Correa, Carrasco, E. Suarez, J. Baez and A. Hicks?  It’s an OBP 8×8 league H2H forever keeper

Brad Johnson: Correa, Baez, Suarez imo

Brad Johnson: Carrasco, as much as I like him, is not even remotely close to topping those three

Brad Johnson: You can squint your way into liking Hicks over Suarez, but I think it’s a mistake

cak199164: who do you like more tonight: Josh James or Touki Toussiant

Brad Johnson: James

william: Thoughts on Piscotty? Is he legit?

Brad Johnson: I think so. He’s not a destroyer of worlds, but he was a very competent bat at times in the past. He appears to be very competent once again.

Brandon: Need help with my last two keepers: Clevinger, Folty, Nola, E. Suarez, Hoskins, M. Chapman? Thanks

Brad Johnson: Two of Hoskins, Suarez, and Nola

Brad Johnson: Depending on needs. Tough to get rid of any of ’em

Milton : Oh yeah, that keep 6 question, I also could keep Matt Chapman.

Brad Johnson: Chapman isn’t as good a fantasy asset as Suarez

Brad Johnson: Though I’m a big fan

Not Chris Smith: Thanks!  If I kept Blackmon $29 I’d have all 5 of spots kept, does that matter much to you?  (Those 5 stud bats are $34 betts $16 jdm $26 Acuna $21 Rhys $15 Bryant)

Brad Johnson: Honestly, it might… I suggest sleeping on it.

Brad Johnson: A general note on keeper decisions – it’s best to put them out of your mind for awhile and tackle them later with a fresh eye

Brad Johnson: So let’s focus on decisions that affect 2018

bob: Nimmo vs Piscotty upsides for next year?

Brad Johnson: I like Nimmo slightly more. Similar though

Danny: This is a difficult week to handle pitching in H2H leagues. Any thoughts on whether Leake, Ray, Flaherty, and Holland make their Sunday starts? It seems like the last three are most at risk, for various reasons.  Thanks.

Brad Johnson: I’d love to help, but I’m getting crushed by bumped starts and shortened outings

Brad Johnson: If it was one or two teams playing games, I could keep a handle on it. But it’s everybody.

Brad Johnson: It’s definitely much worse than past seasons.

Atl bullpen: Hi, Brad. Any clarity on the ATL pen? Vizcaino on the wire and I own Minter. Can drop Neris, or Minter, for Viz. Thanks for all the chats this year.

Brad Johnson: So there’s an important strategic element here

Brad Johnson: Do you need 1 CL or 2?

Brad Johnson: If you need 2, you have to try Neris and one of the Braves guys

Brad Johnson: If you need 1, then using both Braves ensures you get it. If you go Neris and one Brave, there’s like a 50/50 chance you have no closers

Brad Johnson: I guess that’s bad math

Brad Johnson: but Neris is maybe first in a committee of madness

Brad Keller: ERA over/under 4 next year?

Brad Johnson: So a big chunk of Keller’s value is ground balls and reduced hard contact. I got burned quite a bit betting on guys with a high GB/soft contact profile

Brad Johnson: They suddenly coughed up lots of hard contact. it’s something I intend to study this winter.

zurzles: Who are your young post-rookie pitching candidates to Snell in 2019? Can we learn anything from Snell’s 2017 to better forecast potential breakouts?

Brad Johnson: Possibly, another topic I intend to study later

Brad Johnson: I don’t have picks now. I’m still battling to the wire in… uh… lemme check

Brad Johnson: Playing for first in four leagues and second in a 20 team dynasty

Brad Johnson: In that latter league, the first place team pretty much won back in May. And that was with Paul Goldschmidt doing nothing.

Twoseamers: After an awesome Oct-2017, going to a bunch of Astros playoff games… I have a weird feeling this postseason will be a disappointment with last one being so crazy and awesome.
Is there hope? Or do Gm 2&5 of the WS only come around every 10 years?

Brad Johnson: I mean those were pretty insane games

Brad Johnson: If you go in with those as your expectation, you will be disappointed.

Mike: Does Aaron Nola have a HR problem now? His HR/9 absolutely blew up in Sept (and screwed me in a points league)

Brad Johnson: He has a “pitches at CBP” problem

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t worry about it.

zurzles: Where are you buying Pham in 2019? He’s doing so well lately I’m worried he’s going to make the jump from underrated to overrated fast.

Brad Johnson: Around where he was this year

Bob Villar: Projections for Mondesi in 2019?

Brad Johnson: Fun!

Brad Johnson: 21 HR, 41 SB, .250 AVG, .280 OBP.

Angelus Novus: You cool with me keeping Snell (15 rnd) over Albies (14 rnd)?

Brad Johnson: Do you want to do that?

Brad Johnson: You should do what brings you joy

Brad Johnson: It’s a reasonable choice

Johasna: 12 team, 400 player deep, h2h with traditional stats and 8 keepers season to season … who’s my final keeper: Aguilar, Andujar, G Polanco, Darvish?

Brad Johnson: That’s a tough list

Brad Johnson: Good players with big ol’ red flags

Brad Johnson: I suggest we all digest some offseason content first.

Brad Johnson: (I have a feeling Andujar gets traded)

JohnJacob Jingle…: I need homeruns, runs, RBIs this week. Which 4 would you start out of this group of 5 players? Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, Jay Bruce, Nelson Cruz

Brad Johnson: (that’s 4 players)

Brad Johnson: I like Bruce least if the 5th guy is good

Confused: JD Martinez … even with the Green Monster he can’t keep up that BABIP right? Should I avoid him early in drafts or is he going to keep punishing me for avoiding him, like Nelson Cruz?

Brad Johnson: I see no reason to avoid him

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll even last into the 2nd round of 12 teamers again

Brad Johnson: Where he’s a value

Brad Johnson: Sure the batting average should probably be lower than it is

Brad Johnson: but that’s like scraping $2 off a $50 asset.

Anonymous: I keep waffling between Clevinger and Buehler as a keeper in 12 team points. This league is high on strikeouts. Few have been as dominant as Buehler the last 8 weeks. Clevinger feels safer, but Buehler might have the upside?

Brad Johnson: I’d go Buehler. Again, let’s digest what an offseason of analysis provides

E: Is Yelich in your top 15 next year?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: Or at least, his stat line is that of a top 15 player

Brad Johnson: There are so many superstars these days that SOME of them can’t be in the top 15.

Brad Johnson: Because there are more than 15

Brad Johnson: #maths

Bob Villar: all in on michael fulmer for 2019?

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll be a great bargain target late in drafts

zurzles: Choi vs Severino or O’Hearn vs Harvey?

Brad Johnson: O’Hearn

zurzles: FBB should end in August. Because September baseball is wacky and more importantly because I’m burnt the fuck out.

Brad Johnson: I never worry too much about the draft or early season play. This is a game of out-managing your opponents. And most of them will lose focus at some point.

Brad Johnson: Of those four leagues I’m battling for 1st, I started September in 5th place (roto) and the other in 7th (H2H)

Jonathan: Are there any player that – in spite of yourself – you’re biased against when drafting? Whether past performance or personality outside the game.

Brad Johnson: So many. The weird part is I mostly do auction leagues so I wind up with them cheaply

Brad Johnson: Yasiel Puig serial lands on my teams at a huge bargain

Brad Johnson: I nominate them early thinking they’ll absorb auction dollars

Brad Johnson: and my leaguemates know I think they’re overrated so they stick me with ’em

JohnJacob Jingle…: Nelson Cruz is slumping HARD lately. I need counting stats this week to hold onto first. Should I bench him for one of Jay Bruce or Hunter Renfroe?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: Unless you think the Mariners will bench him

Brad Johnson: I don’t think they will though

Tom: Are there any bold predictions that you or fellow Rotographs authors are within striking distance of this last week of the season?

Brad Johnson: Well my original batch sucked

Brad Johnson: I can’t speak for other writes – well I could but I don’t feel like it

Brad Johnson: My best one was Trout hitting 50 HR. And he’s well short of that

Brad Johnson: I did a midseason update because I wanted to have something to talk about

Brad Johnson: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/brad-johnsons-10-midseason-bold-pred…

Brad Johnson: This one aged VERY well

Brad Johnson: Even if not all of them are exactly correct, if you used them as general fantasy advice, 9 of 10 are correct

Brad Johnson: And Matt Olson (the 10th) wasn’t BAD

Can of corn: Mike Clevinger next years Tyler Bauer?

Brad Johnson: Could be. You never know when a pitcher will drop into obscurity.

Brad Johnson: Tyler Bauer is currently tied for most obscure pitcher

Brandon: RE: How much separates Eugenio Suarez and Matt Chapman? What is the difference for you? A little more power from Suarez?

Brad Johnson: About a full SD of production in basically every category

rR: Pat Corbin lost me the finals with his last start and I finished second. How pissed should I be?

Brad Johnson: Not very. You thrived with a gift horse

SparkyMcguffy: Ever had a commish of your league do something shady at the end? (scenario: I tied championship game, tiebreaker me for beating opponent already twice, commish splits winnings evenly between us even though it clearly says tiebreakers are broke by h2h records)

Brad Johnson: I’ve seen some shady things in my leagues, but it’s usually a commissioner being overzealous while trying to keep things democratic (a terrible approach to running a league).

Brad Johnson: I haven’t had to deal with any money antics

Brad Johnson: Although the league I still run has this goofy system of credits and actual payouts, and I’m surprised nobody has dropped by to audit me

Brad Johnson: (It passes muster, but it would take much longer to explain everything than it should)

Tom: Going after Kershaw and Votto this year in one of my leagues turned out to be not such a hot idea.  Where do you see those two getting drafted next year?

Brad Johnson: Much later

Brad Johnson: To the point that they’re bargains

Will: You willin’ to bet on Willians as your catcher next year?

Brad Johnson: If you mean to ask if I’ll be keeping him for $8… no.

Slurve: What do we make of the Indians overall record – given the nature of their terrible division and talented team?

Brad Johnson: They worked through some bad pitching, particularly out of the bullpen

Brad Johnson: The whole team is getting back on track at the right time

Brad Johnson: Lineup is still top heavy

Brad Johnson: Time to wrap things up, I have a lot of roster games to play before lineups lock tonight

Ryan: Your anticipated Andujar trade opens up 3B in NY for . . . Machado?

Brad Johnson: Machado with Donaldson or a 2B as the backup prize

Brad Johnson: And Gleyber moving to 3B if necessary

Brad Johnson: but… I’m more looking at it as a way for them to acquire a premium pitcher.

Brad Johnson: I don’t think they trade him purely to create an opportunity for a signing

Ryan: Last year it was Altuve, this year it was Betts; before that it was Donaldson and Cabrera.  Which AL player next year will challenge Trout for the best season?

Brad Johnson: Fantasy or reality?

Brad Johnson: I think the safe picks are Bregman, Ramirez, and Lindor

Brad Johnson: If you want a more interesting choice…

Brad Johnson: Well I don’t have one

Brad Johnson: The thing about predicting an actual breakout is that they’re mostly unpredictable

Brad Johnson: My job is to analyze who players are right now. Which stops as soon as the data stops flowing

Brad Johnson: The players continue changing over the offseason.

Brad Johnson: Bregman, Ramirez, and Lindor were all better this year than they were at the end of last season

Smark: What’s the shallowest league you’d need to play in to draft Jose Urena as more than a spot starter?

Brad Johnson: He’s a spot guy in 15 redraft

Brad Johnson: He’s a spot guy in 20 team dynasty

Brad Johnson: But he’d definitely be a regular in 20 team redraft

Brad Johnson: So 16 or 18 team redraft I guess

Smark: Have you played Ottoneu’s h2h? I love the format but never played it with such deep rosters? Worth a shot?

Brad Johnson: I’m in an epic finals battle with Nick Pollack of Pitcher List. My 21-1-0 roster might finally lose its second game. I need to come back.

Brad Johnson: It’s a fun wrinkle

Trent: Aside from Buehler, which rookie pitcher from 2018 do you like best for 2019?

Brad Johnson: Shane Bieber leaps immediately to mind

Brad Johnson: And on that note, I’m gonna wander off.

Brad Johnson: Good game folks

Rocco: Freeland or Marquez as a keeper for next year?

Brad Johnson: Marquez

hscer: tell me, how nice is it when your streams produce great ratios?

Brad Johnson: Very

Brad Johnson: A nice surprise even

HappyFunBall: One night only! Cervelli (@Montgomery) or Chrinos (@Shoemaker) ?
(Brad: Both are good plays)