Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/25/2018
by Brad Johnson
September 25, 2018
We chatted. Below is the transcript.
| 4:00 |
: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a moment.
|
| 4:02 |
: What’s the closest money battle you’ve ever seen during the final week of a roto league?
|
| 4:03 |
: Not sure exactly what you mean by money battle. I’ve won and lost seasons by a margin of 1 run. One time back before Yahoo went to extra decimals to tie break, I lost by half a point overall and tied the winner in WHIP.
|
| 4:03 |
: I still maintain I would have won with an extra decimal place
|
| 4:04 |
: Drop Dozier in a dynasty?
|
| 4:04 |
: That’s going to depend on the size and shape. That you’re even asking tells me this isn’t a 20 team keep ’em all scenario
|
| 4:05 |
: In which case, if you just have to weigh what you’ve getting relative to what you’re giving up.
|
| 4:05 |
: do you drop Jeffress in a redraft if no good news come before today’s lineup lockup? need to win saves in H2H championship matchup but also tight in ERA and WHIP(brewers also day off on Thursday). If you do, pick up Will Smith or Segio Romo(shaky but no off days for Rays)?
|
| 4:05 |
: Smith and Romo are both better plays than Jeffress imo
|
| 4:06 |
: actually… gimme a minute to check who the Giants are playing besides the Pads
|
| 4:07 |
: Dodgers… well I guess you can consider this all a series of coin flips. I’d still bet on Smith or Romo personally.
|
| 4:07 |
: As a pure ratio play, how do you feel about Syndergaard tonight vs the Braves? Over/under 3.86/1.00?
|
| 4:08 |
: EZ over on the WHIP. The Braves have been beating up some seriously good pitchers lately. And Thor is looking like Vince Velasquez these days.
|
| 4:08 |
: I’m using him, but I’m not terribly excited about it.
|
| 4:08 |
: 12 Team Auction Roto 5×5 with OBP instead of AVG. Can keep four. Arenado-$25; Snell-$5; Hicks-$7; Shaw-$6, T Anderson-$3, Villar-$8; Morton-$5
Didn’t know if the general lack of SBs should make me consider Villar/Anderson? |
| 4:09 |
: I don’t think so. It’s Arenado, Snell, and Hicks for sure.
|
| 4:10 |
: The options for the fourth spot aren’t very interesting. Villar is overpriced. Morton’s close to done but a decent value, Shaw’s maybe a $6-$8 asset. Anderson $1-$5.
|
| 4:10 |
: 5×5 roto dynasty league (OPS), pick my last two keepers for 2019: Folty, Nimmo, Aaron Hicks, German Marquez
|
| 4:11 |
: I avoid pitchers whenever I have the option so my gut says Hicks and Nimmo. However, you should adjust to your team construction. OFers tend to be an easy position to patch.
|
| 4:11 |
: top x paying spots with people still jockeying for position, rather than straight gaps from 1-2, is what I meant
|
| 4:11 |
: 6 of 12?
|
| 4:11 |
: Maybe 5?
|
| 4:11 |
: Is Heaney a keeper at $4? 11-team QS league, no keeper limit
|
| 4:11 |
: What’s your outlook for Scott Kingery next season?
|
| 4:11 |
: What is going on with Thor? Do you believe he will reach ace level with further development?
|
| 4:12 |
: Slow start to the chat so I’ll consider your spam wall 🙂
|
| 4:12 |
: I think you can keep Heaney for $4 if you personally like him. In an 11-team format, everything is easily replaced, especially Glob-tier pitching.
|
| 4:13 |
: I didn’t expect Kingery to begin the season in the majors, and I think that ended up being a mistake. He’s always needed to adjust to each level. I love him as a buy low target so long as you’re actually buying low.
|
| 4:14 |
: Increasingly good chance he’s an MLB utility guy, but there’s still 15/20 upside with decent AVG/OBP
|
| 4:15 |
: Thor certainly has all the raw talent one could want from a starter. But he needs to learn how to pitch better now that the league can handle velocity. He might just be a frustrating guy going forward.
|
| 4:15 |
: Can you rank for next year Jake Cave, Brandon Low, Matt Olson
|
| 4:15 |
: Olson, Lowe, Cave imo
|
| 4:15 |
: Please keep 2 to balance out your 5 stud keeper bats ($260 budget, 12 team roto): $25 Gerrit Cole, $4 Chapman, $4 Tim Anderson, $29 Blackmon. Thanks!
|
| 4:15 |
: Chapman assuming no other 3B
|
| 4:16 |
: Then probably Blackmon
|
| 4:16 |
: I don’t mind paying a lot to ensure a premium 5 category bat.
|
| 4:16 |
: How low has Lewis Brinson’s stock fallen after this year, and is he worth holding for 2019? Is his most likely outcome a low (or extremely low) AVG/OBP with excellent defense and above-average power for a CF?
|
| 4:16 |
: re: last question on Brinson – dynasty league
|
| 4:17 |
: I think you have to stick with him in a deep dynasty. Or find somebody willing to sell themselves on the upside.
|
| 4:17 |
: I don’t see much hope for the batting barring a breakout. But that’s not out of the question. And he does have some margin for error because of the defense.
|
| 4:18 |
: How confident are you cutting Marte now? Unlikely he returns?
|
| 4:18 |
: If he returns, I doubt he’ll steal. And that’s why you own him.
|
| 4:18 |
: And yea, the Pirates have no reason to take a risk.
|
| 4:18 |
: Hey Brad, I play in a re-draft 5×5 – standard categories (QS in place of W & OBP in place of AVG). Would like to revise categories next season to make middle relievers and TB openers/long relievers fantasy relevant. Any suggestions on what to add? Have considered Holds, SV + Hold, switching K to K/9 but I see limitations with each approach. Also unsure what offensive category to add (if needed) to balance out. Thank you.
|
| 4:19 |
: Well, the category that most favors Followers is Ws. I’m opposed to QS in place of W and this new trend only adds to the ammo.
|
| 4:20 |
: I’d suggest replacing QS with W and leaving it 5×5 OBP
|
| 4:20 |
: Do you like Josh James tonight in Toronto? Think he gets another start this week?
|
| 4:20 |
: I do like him in a general sense. He’s a volatile play though.
|
| 4:21 |
: As for the second start, I wouldn’t bet on it. Maybe 33% chance?
|
| 4:21 |
: I’m in the same league as King Donko, I’m grabbing Kingery TONIGHT
|
| 4:21 |
: Who do you think hits more bombs next year, Franmil or Renfroe?
|
| 4:22 |
: Renfroe is my pick.
|
| 4:22 |
: I stand by this article from early August.
|
| 4:22 |
: Crystal ball… Pivetta, Rodan, Grey, Velasquez, and MusGrove for 2019. Rank and why?
|
| 4:23 |
: For the record, I have an aversion to ranking players. It’s distracting
|
| 4:23 |
: The point of fantasy is to manage categories. Ranks are only helpful because people slavishly follow them. Which means an awareness of them can help with resource planning
|
| 4:24 |
: I’m not a big fan of Velasquez as a fantasy asset. The others are great dart throwers from the upper end of the Glob.
|
| 4:24 |
: Which Glasnow should we expect in 2019? The high 4’s ERA guy, or mid 3’s with K upside he has been since the trade.
|
| 4:24 |
: 4.00 ERA, lots o’ Ks.
|
| 4:24 |
: Can you recommend any sneaky hitters or pitchers as some teams give their guys extra rest over the last few days of the regular season?
|
| 4:24 |
: Roman Quinn is a personal favorite of mine.
|
| 4:24 |
: I need to publish on him soon to establish myself as The Quinn Guy
|
| 4:25 |
: He’s definitely going to start next season.
|
| 4:25 |
: Barring injury. He’s always injured.
|
| 4:25 |
: “But he needs to learn how to pitch better now that the league can handle velocity.” Severino having this problem too? The league learned in almost an instant if this is the case though.
|
| 4:26 |
: Eh, not really. Severino walked into the league not able to beat anybody with heat. Then he broke out with better breaking ball command. I think his slump was just a temporary command blip.
|
| 4:26 |
: When everything isn’t working together, he’s just a guy
|
| 4:26 |
: Is Walker Buehler the Dodger’s ace next year?
|
| 4:27 |
: Probably still Kershaw, but Buehler looks to be among the few pitchers above the Glob
|
| 4:27 |
: Are you targeting any sort of under the radar hitters for the next 5 days? The Hicks injury may force me to turn to Grossman or Josh Bell (hot, volume plays) or Gyorko (who gets some LHP). Thanks.
|
| 4:28 |
: I have a Gyorko claim out too. Voit, Quinn if you need SB, Palka for HR, Tony Kemp appears to have some starts coming his way
|
| 4:28 |
: My wish for this postseason is Tony Kemp going wild.
|
| 4:28 |
: Jesus Aguilar or Matt Olson OBP league for 2019?
|
| 4:28 |
: I like Olson more than Aguilar. I might be alone.
|
| 4:28 |
: any streamer recommendations for this week?
|
| 4:29 |
: I write a daily streamer column which I link in The Daily Grind.
|
| 4:29 |
: It’s right at the very top of the post.
|
| 4:29 |
: Paul DeJong didn’t quite maintain this season, but his counting stats don’t seem too abysmal. I’m inclined to believe his injury slowed him down even while active, but is he worth keeping around when I’ve got Merrifield/Mondesi at 2b/SS in 12-team H2H league (Keep 10)?
|
| 4:30 |
: I love DeJong as a buy low rebound candidate. But for your format I’d focus on finding aces over a backup middle infielder.
|
| 4:30 |
: I keep hearing rumblings that LeClerc is bound to fall apart because of walk rate, but he has walked 6 in his last 19. That doesn’t scream huge issue to me, but is that high enough of a rate to worry for a closer?
|
| 4:30 |
: That’s outdated talk
|
| 4:31 |
: Based on his past, I was highly skeptical he’d be a high value closer this year. Eventually, he proved that his command is actually improved this year without a commensurate increase in hits allowed (a common issue when effectively wild pitchers lose the wildness)
|
| 4:32 |
: He’s a top 10 closer. Use without worry.
|
| 4:32 |
: Could he come back next year with crappy command? Sure. That’s always a risk for these pop-up elite relievers. See Knebel, Corey
|
| 4:32 |
: Thanks for the chat Brad. Keep 6, I have Freeman, Acuna and Sale. Next 3..Who do I keep out of Correa, Carrasco, E. Suarez, J. Baez and A. Hicks? It’s an OBP 8×8 league H2H forever keeper
|
| 4:33 |
: Correa, Baez, Suarez imo
|
| 4:33 |
: Carrasco, as much as I like him, is not even remotely close to topping those three
|
| 4:33 |
: You can squint your way into liking Hicks over Suarez, but I think it’s a mistake
|
| 4:34 |
: who do you like more tonight: Josh James or Touki Toussiant
|
| 4:34 |
: James
|
| 4:34 |
: Thoughts on Piscotty? Is he legit?
|
| 4:34 |
: I think so. He’s not a destroyer of worlds, but he was a very competent bat at times in the past. He appears to be very competent once again.
|
| 4:34 |
: Need help with my last two keepers: Clevinger, Folty, Nola, E. Suarez, Hoskins, M. Chapman? Thanks
|
| 4:35 |
: Two of Hoskins, Suarez, and Nola
|
| 4:35 |
: Depending on needs. Tough to get rid of any of ’em
|
| 4:35 |
: Oh yeah, that keep 6 question, I also could keep Matt Chapman.
|
| 4:35 |
: Chapman isn’t as good a fantasy asset as Suarez
|
| 4:35 |
: Though I’m a big fan
|
| 4:36 |
: Thanks! If I kept Blackmon $29 I’d have all 5 of spots kept, does that matter much to you? (Those 5 stud bats are $34 betts $16 jdm $26 Acuna $21 Rhys $15 Bryant)
|
| 4:36 |
: Honestly, it might… I suggest sleeping on it.
|
| 4:37 |
: A general note on keeper decisions – it’s best to put them out of your mind for awhile and tackle them later with a fresh eye
|
| 4:37 |
: So let’s focus on decisions that affect 2018
|
| 4:37 |
: Nimmo vs Piscotty upsides for next year?
|
| 4:37 |
: I like Nimmo slightly more. Similar though
|
| 4:37 |
: This is a difficult week to handle pitching in H2H leagues. Any thoughts on whether Leake, Ray, Flaherty, and Holland make their Sunday starts? It seems like the last three are most at risk, for various reasons. Thanks.
|
| 4:38 |
: I’d love to help, but I’m getting crushed by bumped starts and shortened outings
|
| 4:38 |
: If it was one or two teams playing games, I could keep a handle on it. But it’s everybody.
|
| 4:38 |
: It’s definitely much worse than past seasons.
|
| 4:39 |
: Hi, Brad. Any clarity on the ATL pen? Vizcaino on the wire and I own Minter. Can drop Neris, or Minter, for Viz. Thanks for all the chats this year.
|
| 4:39 |
: So there’s an important strategic element here
|
| 4:39 |
: Do you need 1 CL or 2?
|
| 4:40 |
: If you need 2, you have to try Neris and one of the Braves guys
|
| 4:41 |
: If you need 1, then using both Braves ensures you get it. If you go Neris and one Brave, there’s like a 50/50 chance you have no closers
|
| 4:41 |
: I guess that’s bad math
|
| 4:41 |
: but Neris is maybe first in a committee of madness
|
| 4:41 |
: ERA over/under 4 next year?
|
| 4:42 |
: So a big chunk of Keller’s value is ground balls and reduced hard contact. I got burned quite a bit betting on guys with a high GB/soft contact profile
|
| 4:42 |
: They suddenly coughed up lots of hard contact. it’s something I intend to study this winter.
|
| 4:42 |
: Who are your young post-rookie pitching candidates to Snell in 2019? Can we learn anything from Snell’s 2017 to better forecast potential breakouts?
|
| 4:43 |
: Possibly, another topic I intend to study later
|
| 4:43 |
: I don’t have picks now. I’m still battling to the wire in… uh… lemme check
|
| 4:44 |
: Playing for first in four leagues and second in a 20 team dynasty
|
| 4:44 |
: In that latter league, the first place team pretty much won back in May. And that was with Paul Goldschmidt doing nothing.
|
| 4:45 |
: After an awesome Oct-2017, going to a bunch of Astros playoff games… I have a weird feeling this postseason will be a disappointment with last one being so crazy and awesome.
Is there hope? Or do Gm 2&5 of the WS only come around every 10 years? |
| 4:45 |
: I mean those were pretty insane games
|
| 4:45 |
: If you go in with those as your expectation, you will be disappointed.
|
| 4:45 |
: Does Aaron Nola have a HR problem now? His HR/9 absolutely blew up in Sept (and screwed me in a points league)
|
| 4:45 |
: He has a “pitches at CBP” problem
|
| 4:45 |
: I wouldn’t worry about it.
|
| 4:46 |
: Where are you buying Pham in 2019? He’s doing so well lately I’m worried he’s going to make the jump from underrated to overrated fast.
|
| 4:46 |
: Around where he was this year
|
| 4:46 |
: Projections for Mondesi in 2019?
|
| 4:46 |
: Fun!
|
| 4:47 |
: 21 HR, 41 SB, .250 AVG, .280 OBP.
|
| 4:47 |
: You cool with me keeping Snell (15 rnd) over Albies (14 rnd)?
|
| 4:47 |
: Do you want to do that?
|
| 4:48 |
: You should do what brings you joy
|
| 4:48 |
: It’s a reasonable choice
|
| 4:49 |
: 12 team, 400 player deep, h2h with traditional stats and 8 keepers season to season … who’s my final keeper: Aguilar, Andujar, G Polanco, Darvish?
|
| 4:49 |
: That’s a tough list
|
| 4:49 |
: Good players with big ol’ red flags
|
| 4:49 |
: I suggest we all digest some offseason content first.
|
| 4:50 |
: (I have a feeling Andujar gets traded)
|
| 4:50 |
: I need homeruns, runs, RBIs this week. Which 4 would you start out of this group of 5 players? Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, Jay Bruce, Nelson Cruz
|
| 4:50 |
: (that’s 4 players)
|
| 4:50 |
: I like Bruce least if the 5th guy is good
|
| 4:51 |
: JD Martinez … even with the Green Monster he can’t keep up that BABIP right? Should I avoid him early in drafts or is he going to keep punishing me for avoiding him, like Nelson Cruz?
|
| 4:51 |
: I see no reason to avoid him
|
| 4:51 |
: I think he’ll even last into the 2nd round of 12 teamers again
|
| 4:51 |
: Where he’s a value
|
| 4:51 |
: Sure the batting average should probably be lower than it is
|
| 4:51 |
: but that’s like scraping $2 off a $50 asset.
|
| 4:52 |
: I keep waffling between Clevinger and Buehler as a keeper in 12 team points. This league is high on strikeouts. Few have been as dominant as Buehler the last 8 weeks. Clevinger feels safer, but Buehler might have the upside?
|
| 4:52 |
: I’d go Buehler. Again, let’s digest what an offseason of analysis provides
|
| 4:52 |
: Is Yelich in your top 15 next year?
|
| 4:52 |
: Yes
|
| 4:52 |
: Or at least, his stat line is that of a top 15 player
|
| 4:52 |
: There are so many superstars these days that SOME of them can’t be in the top 15.
|
| 4:53 |
: Because there are more than 15
|
| 4:53 |
: #maths
|
| 4:53 |
: all in on michael fulmer for 2019?
|
| 4:53 |
: I think he’ll be a great bargain target late in drafts
|
| 4:53 |
: Choi vs Severino or O’Hearn vs Harvey?
|
| 4:53 |
: O’Hearn
|
| 4:53 |
: FBB should end in August. Because September baseball is wacky and more importantly because I’m burnt the fuck out.
|
| 4:54 |
: I never worry too much about the draft or early season play. This is a game of out-managing your opponents. And most of them will lose focus at some point.
|
| 4:55 |
: Of those four leagues I’m battling for 1st, I started September in 5th place (roto) and the other in 7th (H2H)
|
| 4:56 |
: Are there any player that – in spite of yourself – you’re biased against when drafting? Whether past performance or personality outside the game.
|
| 4:56 |
: So many. The weird part is I mostly do auction leagues so I wind up with them cheaply
|
| 4:56 |
: Yasiel Puig serial lands on my teams at a huge bargain
|
| 4:57 |
: I nominate them early thinking they’ll absorb auction dollars
|
| 4:57 |
: and my leaguemates know I think they’re overrated so they stick me with ’em
|
| 4:57 |
: Nelson Cruz is slumping HARD lately. I need counting stats this week to hold onto first. Should I bench him for one of Jay Bruce or Hunter Renfroe?
|
| 4:57 |
: No
|
| 4:57 |
: Unless you think the Mariners will bench him
|
| 4:57 |
: I don’t think they will though
|
| 4:58 |
: Are there any bold predictions that you or fellow Rotographs authors are within striking distance of this last week of the season?
|
| 4:58 |
: Well my original batch sucked
|
| 4:59 |
: I can’t speak for other writes – well I could but I don’t feel like it
|
| 4:59 |
: My best one was Trout hitting 50 HR. And he’s well short of that
|
| 5:00 |
: I did a midseason update because I wanted to have something to talk about
|
| 5:00 |
: This one aged VERY well
|
| 5:01 |
: Even if not all of them are exactly correct, if you used them as general fantasy advice, 9 of 10 are correct
|
| 5:01 |
: And Matt Olson (the 10th) wasn’t BAD
|
| 5:02 |
: Mike Clevinger next years Tyler Bauer?
|
| 5:02 |
: Could be. You never know when a pitcher will drop into obscurity.
|
| 5:03 |
: Tyler Bauer is currently tied for most obscure pitcher
|
| 5:03 |
: RE: How much separates Eugenio Suarez and Matt Chapman? What is the difference for you? A little more power from Suarez?
|
| 5:03 |
: About a full SD of production in basically every category
|
| 5:03 |
: Pat Corbin lost me the finals with his last start and I finished second. How pissed should I be?
|
| 5:03 |
: Not very. You thrived with a gift horse
|
| 5:03 |
: Ever had a commish of your league do something shady at the end? (scenario: I tied championship game, tiebreaker me for beating opponent already twice, commish splits winnings evenly between us even though it clearly says tiebreakers are broke by h2h records)
|
| 5:04 |
: I’ve seen some shady things in my leagues, but it’s usually a commissioner being overzealous while trying to keep things democratic (a terrible approach to running a league).
|
| 5:04 |
: I haven’t had to deal with any money antics
|
| 5:05 |
: Although the league I still run has this goofy system of credits and actual payouts, and I’m surprised nobody has dropped by to audit me
|
| 5:06 |
: (It passes muster, but it would take much longer to explain everything than it should)
|
| 5:06 |
: Going after Kershaw and Votto this year in one of my leagues turned out to be not such a hot idea. Where do you see those two getting drafted next year?
|
| 5:06 |
: Much later
|
| 5:06 |
: To the point that they’re bargains
|
| 5:06 |
: You willin’ to bet on Willians as your catcher next year?
|
| 5:06 |
: If you mean to ask if I’ll be keeping him for $8… no.
|
| 5:06 |
: What do we make of the Indians overall record – given the nature of their terrible division and talented team?
|
| 5:07 |
: They worked through some bad pitching, particularly out of the bullpen
|
| 5:07 |
: The whole team is getting back on track at the right time
|
| 5:07 |
: Lineup is still top heavy
|
| 5:07 |
: Time to wrap things up, I have a lot of roster games to play before lineups lock tonight
|
| 5:07 |
: Your anticipated Andujar trade opens up 3B in NY for . . . Machado?
|
| 5:08 |
: Machado with Donaldson or a 2B as the backup prize
|
| 5:08 |
: And Gleyber moving to 3B if necessary
|
| 5:08 |
: but… I’m more looking at it as a way for them to acquire a premium pitcher.
|
| 5:08 |
: I don’t think they trade him purely to create an opportunity for a signing
|
| 5:09 |
: Last year it was Altuve, this year it was Betts; before that it was Donaldson and Cabrera. Which AL player next year will challenge Trout for the best season?
|
| 5:09 |
: Fantasy or reality?
|
| 5:10 |
: I think the safe picks are Bregman, Ramirez, and Lindor
|
| 5:10 |
: If you want a more interesting choice…
|
| 5:11 |
: Well I don’t have one
|
| 5:11 |
: The thing about predicting an actual breakout is that they’re mostly unpredictable
|
| 5:12 |
: My job is to analyze who players are right now. Which stops as soon as the data stops flowing
|
| 5:12 |
: The players continue changing over the offseason.
|
| 5:12 |
: Bregman, Ramirez, and Lindor were all better this year than they were at the end of last season
|
| 5:13 |
: What’s the shallowest league you’d need to play in to draft Jose Urena as more than a spot starter?
|
| 5:13 |
: He’s a spot guy in 15 redraft
|
| 5:13 |
: He’s a spot guy in 20 team dynasty
|
| 5:13 |
: But he’d definitely be a regular in 20 team redraft
|
| 5:14 |
: So 16 or 18 team redraft I guess
|
| 5:14 |
: Have you played Ottoneu’s h2h? I love the format but never played it with such deep rosters? Worth a shot?
|
| 5:14 |
: I’m in an epic finals battle with Nick Pollack of Pitcher List. My 21-1-0 roster might finally lose its second game. I need to come back.
|
| 5:14 |
: It’s a fun wrinkle
|
| 5:14 |
: Aside from Buehler, which rookie pitcher from 2018 do you like best for 2019?
|
| 5:14 |
: Shane Bieber leaps immediately to mind
|
| 5:15 |
: And on that note, I’m gonna wander off.
|
| 5:15 |
: Good game folks
|
| 5:15 |
: Freeland or Marquez as a keeper for next year?
|
| 5:15 |
: Marquez
|
| 5:15 |
: tell me, how nice is it when your streams produce great ratios?
|
| 5:15 |
: Very
|
| 5:15 |
: A nice surprise even
|
| 5:15 |
: One night only! Cervelli (@Montgomery) or Chrinos (@Shoemaker) ?
(Brad: Both are good plays) |
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam