Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9-24-2019
by Brad Johnson
September 24, 2019
‘Twas a good chat.
| 3:56 |
: We’ll kick things off in a moment.
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| 3:59 |
: In your opinion is this a fair trade: Arendo, S. Marte, Trevor Bauer and Caleb Smith for Trout? Thinking I may be giving up to much for Trout and this is a keep forever league. Thanks
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| 4:00 |
: I think that’s relatively fair in keep forever
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| 4:00 |
: But whether or not you should do it is another question
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| 4:00 |
: And that depends on the state of your roster, depth of your league, etc.
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| 4:01 |
: To acquire the very best player i.e. the top combination of quality in one roster spot, then you have to give up a lot of quantity. But if you’re playing Phil Ervin and Zach Eflin because of this trade, then it’s probably a mistake.
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| 4:02 |
: Tommy Edman has carried my team this past month. What would you project for next year from him?
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| 4:02 |
: A utility role with relatively bland but passable stats
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| 4:02 |
: They’re not going to leave the door open for him to play regularly
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| 4:02 |
: He’ll either need to earn it with a fiery spring or wait for injuries like this year.
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| 4:03 |
: What would be an effective trade for the dodgers to trade from their depth to acquire an impact right handed bat in the offseason
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| 4:03 |
: That’s… difficult. Why not just sign Rendon? He was a passable 2B once upon a time.
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| 4:04 |
: And Turner could move into the 1B platoon if that doesn’t work out
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| 4:04 |
: plus you have your long term 3B for when Turner’s contract is up or his inevitable IL stint
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| 4:04 |
: In 10 team roto, 6×6 (OBP & QS) keep 3 and surrender next year’s draft pick.. I need to choose between: Yelich (3rd rounder), Rendon (5th), Buehler (24th), Ketel (25th), Semien (25th). Thanks, Brad.
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| 4:05 |
: Yelich pretty clearly. Hard to pass on Buehler at that value.
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| 4:05 |
: I would wait to see where Rendon lands before making the decision on the final spot
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| 4:06 |
: One concern I have about Marte and Semien specifically is how their stats would react to a freshly-squeezed (i.e. de-juiced) baseball.
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| 4:07 |
: brb
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| 4:08 |
: I have two SP slots in Ottoneu tonight for Odirizzi, Gray, and Syndergaard. I feel good about Odirizzi against DET, but do I go with Thor or Gray in the other spot?
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| 4:08 |
: Too bad you can only use 2. Those are all money matchups
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| 4:09 |
: I don’t think you can go wrong, they were all projected similarly by SaberSim and I don’t disagree
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| 4:09 |
: And by not going wrong, I mean any process you use is fine. It could still blow up
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| 4:09 |
: Tight H2H 5×5 finals, with ERA, W and Ks all closely contested. I set up with Gray/Nola/Bailey/Merrill Kelly/Civale/Glasnow/Manaea and any second starts on Sunday, and I have 2 adds to use. Opponent has Alcantara/Bumgarner/Anibal/Stras/Dakota Hudson/Verlander and any second starts on Sunday, with 5 adds left to use. 1) Any obvious sits from my group, and 2) strategically is it even worth chasing more starts via faab (Wed & Fri runs) when my opponent can flood the zone if he chooses, and maybe instead try to nail down ERA with only the best of my SPs and work on holding other categories?
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| 4:11 |
: I don’t think any of those are sits with the possible exception of kelly. However, I would approach the early portion of the contest as a volume game and adjust from there.
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| 4:11 |
: You don’t want to assume a strategy for your opponent then get caught regretting a lost opportunity
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| 4:11 |
: Would the redsox trade betts for verdugo? I agree I think the dodgers should absolutley sign rendon but it seems like the front office doesnt like to spend money in FA
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| 4:12 |
: A package involving Verdugo should work for Betts. But would the Dodgers do that? I doubt it.
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| 4:12 |
: Would the indians trade lindor for seager and a good prospect like josiah gray?
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| 4:13 |
: The Indians are willing to make these sorts of trades, but I don’t think the specific players you mentioned make much sense here. More like Lux, Verdugo, and May. Or something like that.
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| 4:13 |
: You’re looking too big though
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| 4:14 |
: For elite players on other teams, it’s necessary to pay a premium. The Dodgers front office would much rather chase value from a Mark Canha-like player who costs next-to-nothing to acquire
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| 4:14 |
: Which is why I thought free agency made more sense for them
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| 4:14 |
: I mean, they tried to do this with Pollock. Maybe he rebounds next year
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| 4:14 |
: Nelson Cruz has 400HRs how many will he finish with?
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| 4:15 |
: I want him to get to 500, but I’ll lay a line at 447.
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| 4:15 |
: Brad, trying to decide my last keeper in a 12tm roto keep4 (already keeping Betts, Story, and Cole). Who do you have between Verlander and Rendon? An easy problem to have, but still, a problem. Everyone can be kept for 3 more years
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| 4:15 |
: I typically prefer to invest long term in bats.
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| 4:16 |
: However, there is some merit to trying to dominate pitching while backfilling bats. Especially if you think the juiced ball is here to stay
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| 4:16 |
: I asked Jeff on Sunday if he thought the Reds would give Gausman a look in the rotation next year and he said yeah but probably ends up in the pen where he belongs. Do you share that assessment? I’m wondering if he’s cuttable in 14-team H2H dynasty points leagues.
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| 4:16 |
: Pretty much
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| 4:16 |
: I’m not convinced Gausman makes it through the winter with them
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| 4:17 |
: He’s due to earn over $10MM in arbitration. That’s a non-tender imo
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| 4:17 |
: An EASY non-tender in fact.
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| 4:17 |
: Which of these dudes bust outs seems most legit?: Semien, Carlos Santana, Soler. (asking for a friend trying to choose a final keeper)
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| 4:17 |
: That’s open to interpretation
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| 4:18 |
: If you’re asking – who is least affected by the baseball, I think it’s Soler
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| 4:18 |
: But I like Semien and Santana more as baseball players
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| 4:19 |
: Soler could easily be a 30 HR, .290 OBP guy and that’s pretty blah. Especially since the Royals won’t help him out with a supporting cast
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| 4:19 |
: Austin Hays: Outlook for next year? Looking at him in a keep forever league, obviously was a big time prospect a couple years ago but minor league numbers this year were underwhelming
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| 4:20 |
: If the opportunity cost is modest, then I don’t mind taking a flier on him. Especially with the fiery finish perhaps carrying over into 2020
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| 4:20 |
: Thanks for all the guidance this year!
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| 4:20 |
: I’m angry that the Jays aren’t throwing Kay behind an opener today, but not as angry as I am that my season is coming down to such a terrible streaming option.
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| 4:20 |
: I like Kay for long term purposes. I think he could work
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| 4:21 |
: But he’s obviously not there yet.
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| 4:21 |
: Darvish has to be commanding a #1 starter price next year, right? If so, do you pay it?
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| 4:21 |
: Pretty much
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| 4:21 |
: Endgame was vastly overrated. Just watch the last 45 minutes and you’ll be fine. Don’t waste three full hours of your life on it. Wasn’t terrible, but wasn’t what it was hyped up to be either. Just okay IMO.
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| 4:21 |
: who gets the most Mets’ saves in 2020? Diaz? Lugo? Field?
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| 4:21 |
: I’ll bet on Diaz
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| 4:21 |
: Looking at 2020 MI pickup for 5×5: Nico or Hampson?
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| 4:22 |
: My gut waffled 3 times in 30 seconds
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| 4:22 |
: Lemme investigate
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| 4:22 |
: So Hampson’s a guy I can take a mini-victory lap on
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| 4:22 |
: I’ve always been convinced he’s a utility guy
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| 4:23 |
: It’s telling that Coors Field + juicy ball = 6 HR in 293 PA
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| 4:23 |
: Plus his passivity has led to way too many strikeouts for his profile
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| 4:23 |
: He’s in need of a serious breakout to be 12-team mixed relevant
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| 4:23 |
: Even with Coors on his side
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| 4:24 |
: That said, the 20+ SB speed gives him a path to stardom
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| 4:24 |
: As for Hoerner, I don’t really expect to see him in the majors much next year
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| 4:24 |
: He only made it this year because disaster struck
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| 4:24 |
: How much has the cratering of Aquino and Will Smith (LAD) affected their 2020 value from 3 weeks ago?
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| 4:25 |
: Not at all imo
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| 4:25 |
: At least not their true, rational valuations
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| 4:25 |
: If they had kept popping extreme HR/FB, then we would have had some outlier owners taking them super early
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| 4:25 |
: Do you see any of the big name faltering closers (i.e. Diaz, Kimbrel, Jansen) bouncing back next year?
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| 4:26 |
: In general, it’s smart to bet on these slumpy relievers. They don’t always rebound, nor can I even say they’ll behave predictably. But the general trend is for skills to assert themselves. And these are very skilled pitchers.
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| 4:27 |
: BTW: I won a few leagues this year and can’t thank you dudes enough for droppin the wisdom every week…you and paul especially. Cheers.
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| 4:27 |
: Congrats!
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| 4:27 |
: Will smith seems to have consistently good at bats and is a plus defensive catcher. This leaves keibert ruiz largely expendable. What kind of big league talent could a prospect of his caliber bring back to the dodgers?
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| 4:27 |
: Knowing the Dodgers, the plan is to have them both on the same roster
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| 4:27 |
: He could be a big part of a major trade acquisition.
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| 4:28 |
: I think that makes the most sense for mid-2020 or mid-2021 based upon need
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| 4:28 |
: Why doesnt mike clevinger get more recognition? Hes got top 5 stuff in the league and started throwing 97 this year
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| 4:28 |
: Excellent question. I have no answers.
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| 4:28 |
: Start DeSclafani @ PIT on Thursday with confidence?
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| 4:28 |
: I can’t even muster confidence for a Gerrit Cole start.
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| 4:28 |
: Or put another way, I was way more confident about Steven Matz against the Marlins yesterday
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| 4:29 |
: But I would start DeScla
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| 4:29 |
: Any chance I become the main set up guy for Cleveland next year and beyond?
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| 4:29 |
: Yes, a chance for sure. Perhaps even the closer, although you’re a little gimmicky
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| 4:29 |
: Is the juiced ball sticking around next season? If so, how does it impact your draft strategy? deprioritize power because everyone hits HR? or still seek out a premium power bat to stay ahead in that category?
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| 4:30 |
: We have no way of knowing.
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| 4:30 |
: With the juiced ball, we almost can’t use players like Mallex Smith and expect to win
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| 4:30 |
: But if it’s de-juiced, then he might be part of a winning formula
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| 4:31 |
: The state of the ball will be the subject of many (of my) offseason articles
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| 4:31 |
: Shopping aquino in deep dynasty league, looking for a prospect. How high can I reasonably ask? Top 20? 50?
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| 4:31 |
: Start aggressive and adjust downwards
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| 4:31 |
: Played with Josh Rojas at Hawaii. Do the dbacks view him as a long term utility guy? Put up stupid stats in the minors this year and can play everywhere
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| 4:31 |
: I haven’t talked to anyone with the DBacks, but my impression is they plan to play him
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| 4:32 |
: I expect they like the utility as a fallback option
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| 4:32 |
: What makes more sense in a 12 team keep forever league. 10 keepers or 8 keepers with the ability to trade for 2 more in the offseason?
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| 4:32 |
: My advice for this is to judge the quality of the owners in your league
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| 4:32 |
: The higher the quality, the more complex you can get
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| 4:33 |
: If it’s fairly low quality, then very few (or no) keeps is best
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| 4:33 |
: In this case, the 8-keep scenario is higher difficulty
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| 4:33 |
: We keep five pitchers and five hitters. I’m keeping Buehler, Bieber, deGrom, Corbin, Cole Mondesi, Bogaerts, Bellinger and Guerero. I’m going to have to trade or cut Rosario, Aquino, K. Marte, Abreu, Bauer, German, Greinke and Caleb Smith.
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| 4:34 |
: this was in response to the very first question about a Mike Trout trade. I’d definitely do it in this case. No brainer.
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| 4:34 |
: You’re literally trading nothing for him.
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| 4:34 |
: No way I can start the Yipping Wade Miley, even against AAA-Angels this week, right? (AL only)
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| 4:34 |
: You’d have to be pretty desperate
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| 4:35 |
: Is it too soon to judge the stickiness of the adjustments Merrill Kelly supposedly made in late August that appear to have given him an extra tick or two on his fastball?
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| 4:35 |
: No, not necessarily
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| 4:35 |
: Though you should remember that pitcher velocity does naturally increase a bit throughout the season. And the winter can undo some positive changes.
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| 4:35 |
: is Jon Berti a 130 gp super utility guy next year?
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| 4:36 |
: Honestly, unless their winter goes a lot differently than I expect, he’s probably an everyday guy
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| 4:36 |
: Moving around as needed
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| 4:36 |
: Based on the stats, seems like wander franco is outperforming vlad jr at the same age and plays a premium defensive position. Unheard of BB, K, and iso rates for an 18 year old. Have you seen him play? What are your thoughts of drafting him in a keeper league next year. How high would you go
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| 4:36 |
: I’d need to know a lot more about your context to advise when
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| 4:36 |
: Franco IS the best prospect since Vladito
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| 4:37 |
: And quite possibly better
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| 4:37 |
: In a roto league my ERA sits at 3.50 and the guy ahead of me at 3.46. Bailey has a good matchup tonight vs LAA but I should probably sit him anyway, right?
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| 4:38 |
: Unless that guy is using Eric Skoglund, you’re unlikely to catch him. Especially with a passive strategy. I’d probably use Bailey.
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| 4:38 |
: But it also depends on other categories
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| 4:40 |
: If youre a major league GM, who would you rather build around, acuna or soto. I feel like soto is a much better hitter and younger
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| 4:41 |
: They’re both so young that age is scarcely a consideration
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| 4:41 |
: And if we get to consider contract, the Braves stole Acuna’s future for a song.
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| 4:42 |
: If I package more players together to get eight Acuno or Betts, who should I trade between Mondesi and Bogaerts? Thanks
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| 4:42 |
: The answer might just be “whoever lets you complete a deal most efficiently”
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| 4:43 |
: My instinct is to keep Mondesi’s league-leading SBs with solid power
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| 4:43 |
: Any players you’re targeting in 2020? So far, I’ve got Buxton, Yarbrough, Montas, Puk and Luzardo on my notepad.
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| 4:43 |
: I haven’t gotten that far. I have ideas I’m targeting.
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| 4:43 |
: And we’ll talk about them in due time
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| 4:43 |
: in a 14tm H2H final, would you drop Eric Hosmer for Trent Grishim, mainly for the brewer’s weekend series at Coors?
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| 4:43 |
: Yes
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| 4:43 |
: Im a firm believer in the $1 reliever strategy, but a 3$ Pressley, Anderson and T. Rodgers all have to be kept in an fangraphs points league right?
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| 4:43 |
: They are keepers
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| 4:44 |
: But that doesn’t mean YOU have to keep them
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| 4:44 |
: Hi, looking at keepers for next year, is it worth keeping Yordan Alvarez with Shohei Ohtani? Worried about clogging my 1 utility slot with them, when I could keep someone like Kepler or Conforto or W. Calhoun. Also Lucas Giolito or Jose Berrios? Espn points league similar to ottoneu
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| 4:44 |
: You have to keep Yordan
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| 4:45 |
: He has 10 games in the OF. Is ESPN’s cutoff 20 games?
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| 4:45 |
: Brad, thanks for doing these chats! In your mind, what are the odds that MLB de-juices the ball next season?
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| 4:45 |
: I think it’s better than 50%
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| 4:45 |
: But that’s just one man’s guess
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| 4:46 |
: Going back to the Alvarez/Ohtani question, you could consider taking Conforto, Kepler, or Giolito over Ohtani.
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| 4:46 |
: And if you’re allowed to trade, then I would trade.
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| 4:46 |
: Joe Altuve played himself to being worth 40$ next season if you still have over 120$ in cap space correct?
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| 4:46 |
: Yea, I’d keep him
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| 4:47 |
: Barring a better alternative
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| 4:47 |
: How big of a bump does Biggio get in OBP? (Votto / Gallo or more Carpenter / Choo tier) Also, does his late-season surge torpedo lock rational bidders out when helium sets in
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| 4:47 |
: Carp/Choo is a better example. Although Votto’s there too now.
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| 4:47 |
: I think Soto/Gallo/Harper are the elite examples
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| 4:48 |
: I do think there’s a chance he’ll shoot beyond rosterable ADP
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| 4:48 |
: But… being a Blue Jay could help us
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| 4:48 |
: My guess is industry leagues and similar will be all over Biggio but he’ll fall through the cracks in home leagues
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| 4:49 |
: Do you believe Meadows’ home run totals are legit and not the product of a couple super hot streaks? I’m inclined to bet on his HR numbers going down in 2020 rather than up
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| 4:49 |
: Regression is the safe bet, yes
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| 4:49 |
: It might be that he’s just a streaky hitter. Kinda Conforto-like.
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| 4:50 |
: Or maybe he adjusts and turns into a superstar (if he isn’t already)
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| 4:50 |
: Maybe the cold snaps were injury fueled
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| 4:50 |
: As you can see, many angles for speculation
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| 4:50 |
: Crazy prediction? Guerrero costs hugely more than J.D. Davis next year, but J.D. Davis actually produces the numbers Guerrero owners were hoping for
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| 4:50 |
: First bold prediction 2020
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| 4:50 |
: Too bad you registered as Guest
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| 4:51 |
: At this point, is Wil Myers a Hail Mary pass? The homers in 2016-17 lloked good, but this is a second poor year in a row.
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| 4:51 |
: All those injuries have possibly caused him to prematurely age out of relevance
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| 4:52 |
: Positional flexibility worth anything next year, or still flat across the diamond like 2019 draft day?
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| 4:52 |
: Well, I wouldn’t say that’s true. Flexibility is still hugely useful even if it is pretty common
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| 4:52 |
: It’ll remain common and important.
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| 4:52 |
: If you mean position scarcity, I plan to treat 2020 as a no-scarcity environment
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| 4:52 |
: But I will verify that at some point.
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| 4:53 |
: Or maybe just trust Jeff Z to do it for me
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| 4:53 |
: help me with keepers for next year(with their keeper value – pick 4)…12 team H2H, 6×6 with OPS, K9 WHIP….Bichette (15th), A Meadows (16th), Eloy (12th), Verlander (2nd). E Suarez (11th), Bregman (9th) McNeil (12th)…gotta go Bregman, Eloy,
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| 4:53 |
: Hard to pass on Suarez at that value
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| 4:54 |
: I’d keep an open mind on the fourth while leaning Meadows
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| 4:54 |
: Follow-up: Kay just got scratched from the start, so all my anger at the situation was wasted. Wasted!
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| 4:54 |
: How do you deal with over turnover in your home leagues? We’ve got a couple openings, and I’m trying to fill them with people some of us know in person…but it’s hard :O
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| 4:55 |
: Become a professional fantasy baseball writer than append advertisements to your blog posts.
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| 4:55 |
: That’s what I do 🙂
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| 4:55 |
: But in all seriousness, if you can’t find people you know, there are some nice resources out there like Reddit or my BaseballATeam Patreon
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| 4:55 |
: We have a Discord channel called “League Openings”
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| 4:56 |
: high or low on Aristides Aquino in round 10 (ADP 114) (pending roster construction and power needs of course)
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| 4:56 |
: Smells high, but I’m not prepped for 2020 drafts yet
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| 4:56 |
: I could be wrong
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| 4:56 |
: solid shameless plug
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| 4:56 |
: I thought so
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| 4:57 |
: I didn’t even post a link! I probably should have posted a link. Here’s a link:
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| 4:58 |
: Important question: what’s the best way to disseminate invitations to my patreon at First Pitch AZ?
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| 4:58 |
:
Are you coming to First Pitch AZ?
yes (10.0% | 1 vote)
no (40.0% | 4 votes)
huh? (50.0% | 5 votes)
Total Votes: 10
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| 4:58 |
: Jo Adell a no-brainer call up after Super 2 deadline 2020?
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| 4:59 |
: I mean, if they want to finally win something, probably
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| 4:59 |
: Sooner even
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| 4:59 |
: Perhaps they’ll sign some useful free agents though and I’ll change my opinion
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| 4:59 |
: I don’t actually see Adell as can’t-miss fwiw
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| 5:00 |
: (though I said the same about Tatis)
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| 5:00 |
: time to wrap it up. My belly wants attention.
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| 5:00 |
: Re: Adell, he was 0-19 in AFL as of yesterday.
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| 5:00 |
: Pick one closer to drop in a redraft: Rogers, Pagan, Jairo Diaz, Ian Kennedy
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| 5:00 |
: This is a trap right?
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| 5:01 |
: You’re actually Paul Sporer and if I don’t say Jairo Diaz, I’m fired. Right?
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| 5:01 |
: Vlad Jr is talking about bulking or toning up this offseason. Good, bad or meh news?
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| 5:01 |
: Mixed.
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| 5:02 |
: I would prefer for him to increase the quality of his workouts and diet without going absolutely nuts.
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| 5:02 |
: And to continually do so over many years.
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| 5:03 |
: Going all out could be detrimental. Or very good. We’ll construct a narrative after the fact to make it seem like we know what we’re talking about
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| 5:03 |
: FMK: Will Smith, Will Smith and Will Smith.
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| 5:03 |
: Thoughts on streaming Heaney tomorrow at OAK? He’s had a rough September but the K’s keep coming
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| 5:03 |
: Yea, if you need Ks, you’ll get ’em
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| 5:03 |
: The rest is dangerous
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| 5:04 |
: In a redraft, can I drop Cole after today’s start to stream someone else? Or do I have to hold him in case he gets a few innings on Sunday?
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| 5:04 |
: I think you can make that an active spot. Can you tip off a non-rival to grab him?
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| 5:04 |
: Who benefits the most from signing Cole as a FA?
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| 5:04 |
: The Angels?
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| 5:04 |
: Phillies?
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| 5:05 |
: Some team that’s not winning their division by 85 games (i.e. the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, etc.)
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| 5:05 |
: In a VERY broad statistical set – it’s like 9×9 – who would you keep from this group of players at their respective round values? I can only keep three.
Yelich at round 3 Feels like it should be Devers, Alonso and Suarez, but the allure of Yelich at a round 3 value is making me consider passing Devers, especially with Suarez there. |
| 5:06 |
: I don’t think you can pass a 9-cat (I assume) player like Yelich
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| 5:06 |
: I think you make the hard decision to cut Alonso or Suarez. They’re the least well-rounded.
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| 5:06 |
: But I’d need to know a lot more
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| 5:06 |
: And on that note, it’s time to bid y’all adieu.
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