Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 8/7/2018
by Brad Johnson
August 7, 2018
Here’s today’s chat transcript. We talked a number of topics including my repeated assertion that Juan Soto is not a first round pick next season. See you next week.
| 3:05 |
: Good afternoon folks. We’ll get things started in a minute.
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| 3:06 |
: How am I supposed to trust BABIP with the shift? If a player like, Carlos Santana has a career low BABIP in 2018, do I chalk it up to bad luck or is it the result of shifting? How would I know?
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| 3:07 |
: It sounds like you’re oversimplifying your concept of BABIP.
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| 3:08 |
: The shift isn’t the only factor to consider. Santana is hitting more fly balls and infield flies with fewer line drives. All are significant changes that lead to a lower expected BABIP
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| 3:08 |
: Even before looking at shifts, I would expect a career low BABIP with these numbers.
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| 3:08 |
: Will his batted ball profile regress in a positive way? Perhaps.
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| 3:09 |
: We also have a splits tool which lets you look at his personal performance against shifts.
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| 3:10 |
: From what I see, he seems a tad unlucky in this regard. Ultimately, I’d expect the batted balls to regress towards normal along with his shift performance. Hence a .250ish BABIP RoS.
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| 3:10 |
: Do you think mallex smith will be an every day starter at the top of the lineup hereon out?
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| 3:11 |
: Not really, but he wouldn’t be the first speedy player to succeed with bad hard and soft contact rates. He’s also performing better recently which could be a fluky or a sign of skills growth.
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| 3:12 |
: If he can’t maintain his .378 BABIP – which seems like a stretch – then he won’t have the OBP necessary to support a top-of-the-order role.
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| 3:12 |
: I’m rooting for him though
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| 3:12 |
: It’s nice to have a replacement for fading Dee Gordon.
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| 3:13 |
: Moncada dropable 12 teams 10 keepers no price? I also have Dozier. And would you start Stroman today?
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| 3:13 |
: Moncada should be owned by somebody, but I do think you can move on if the waiver move is a good trade for your team. Stroman is scary in a bad way tonight.
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| 3:13 |
: Votto has been terribly disappointing this year (and I’m in an OBP league!). What’s his outlook ROS, and in 2019? Top 30 pick?
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| 3:14 |
: For OBP, Votto will be a top 30 pick until he has a disaster season. I hate the declining skills profile mixed with age, but a .426 OBP more than makes up a low HR total. Especially when he could easily revert to 30 homers.
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| 3:15 |
: Hey Brad, do you think that Trevor Bauer’s value is drastically improved because of the terrible division he pitches in? Will 2019 be tougher for him when those teams leave the rebuilding stage?
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| 3:16 |
: Why would they leave the rebuilding stage? None of them are near turning a corner.
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| 3:16 |
: Maybe the Twins aren’t as bad, but they aren’t in the process of rebuilding
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| 3:16 |
: Maybe the White Sox inch towards competitive. They’re waiting on rookie breakouts.
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| 3:17 |
: And yes, Bauer is greatly helped by his division, although that’s not the complete story. He’s also legitimately improved. He’s found something that works and has stuck with it – something he never did in the past.
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| 3:17 |
: Hi Brad. Nick Ahmed, apart from an atrocious May, is having a really solid year. Surprised?
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| 3:17 |
: Yea. Contact rate is still an issue. He’s 12 team playable though.
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| 3:18 |
: Taillon tonight in Coors?
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| 3:18 |
: Not unless you’re trying to lose (I am in a league I have Taillon)
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| 3:19 |
: I traded Miles Mikolas for Victor Robles in my dynasty league. How did I do? Do you think Robles might come up this year? Win a starting gig next year? Thanks
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| 3:19 |
: robles should be starting next year. He’ll probably join the team in September as a pinch runner.
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| 3:19 |
: They have enough no wheels slugs to remove
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| 3:20 |
: Ames Rosario continues to be middling. Is it time or too early to lower our expectations from the 60-65 FV profile cast of him last summer?
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| 3:20 |
: Here’s where I’m at on Rosario. What we’re seeing is an accurate representation of his current skill – he’s just not very good.
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| 3:21 |
: Hidden in there is the potential to be much much better. If you own him in a dynasty league, you’ll need to be patient or find a bullish trading partner.
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| 3:21 |
: By patient I mean willing to wait 4 years for something to click.
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| 3:21 |
: Shallower formats can move on and grumble about it if/when he improves.
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| 3:22 |
: What should I do with Cody Allen? Hold? Drop? 12 tm H2H, 5×5 categories
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| 3:22 |
: I think you’re stuck holding him
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| 3:23 |
: Is Robbie Cano going to help me down the stretch? Do you see him providing much value going forward?
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| 3:23 |
: Probably. Slump risks are always present when a player misses half a season for any reason.
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| 3:23 |
: They need every marginal win so he’ll play unless he’s bad
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| 3:23 |
: Would you drop Morrow if you need the DL spot for someone else?
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| 3:24 |
: I mean, you said you “need” it, so yes. But I have to imagine you have a better option than cutting Morrow.
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| 3:24 |
: Would you cut J Martinez/J Harrison/M Duffy/C Taylor in a Dynasty for B Lowe or Cease?
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| 3:25 |
: Could consider Harrison and/or Duffy – especially if you’re not contending.
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| 3:25 |
: Think Kris Bryant will be ok next year in a keep forever league or should I trade him for Albies (was offered Albies)?
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| 3:25 |
: I think he’ll be fine. I’d also strongly consider taking Albies
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| 3:25 |
: I think if Rougned Odor wasn’t often bad, he would be Albies
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| 3:26 |
: Never hurts to get much much younger in a dynasty swap
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| 3:26 |
: Best overall SS prospect out of Bichette, Tatis Jr., or Rodgers? And why?
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| 3:27 |
: By scouting report, it’s Tatis. He’s more actualized than the others.
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| 3:27 |
: Rodgers also has to find a way into the lineup. I kinda assume DJLM stays on a QO
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| 3:27 |
: And Story is a monster.
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| 3:27 |
: Speaking of speed guys, are you feeling any better about jonathan villar ROS?
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| 3:27 |
: In the sense that he should play everyday when healthy? Yes
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| 3:28 |
: In the sense that he has anything to contribute besides SB? No
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| 3:28 |
: Obviously Jo Adell isnt a sure thing, but what type of assets would you give up for a player like that in Dynasty?
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| 3:29 |
: Ideally, I’d trade a currently good pitcher with a weird track record. Pat Corbin springs to mind. I low-ball all day for prospects though. Or more accurate, I believe everybody massively overpays for them
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| 3:29 |
: In any case, if you go on my valuations, you’ll often be laughed out of the room.
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| 3:29 |
: What is Shane Bieber’s ceiling? Floor?
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| 3:30 |
: Peak Josh Tomlin plus 2.00 K/9.
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| 3:30 |
: 2018 Josh Tomlin
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| 3:30 |
: I was shocked that Brandon Lowe is 0 percent owned after clearing waivers on Yahoo. Why is there not much more activity on him?
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| 3:30 |
: No hype
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| 3:31 |
: Wait until Scott Pianowski learns he exists. Ownership on Yahoo new players is practically entire based on the recommendations of their touts.
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| 3:31 |
: Dynasty points league: Jake Lamb for Randal Grichuk and Trevor Cahill?
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| 3:31 |
: If you’re contending, absolutely
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| 3:31 |
: If not. Well, that’s probably a bitter pill
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| 3:31 |
: Chris archer and Jean Segura for Freddie Freeman and Jordan Hicks in dynasty?
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| 3:31 |
: Yes. Any price for Freddie Freeman
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| 3:32 |
: “practically any”
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| 3:32 |
: That trade is a huge massive win for you
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| 3:32 |
: Your leaguemates will whine and cry veto
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| 3:32 |
: What do you make of Trevor Richards’ recent run? Great change up and four straight starts with double-digit swinging strike rates?
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| 3:33 |
: I think if he wasn’t a Marlin we would talk about him a lot more
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| 3:33 |
: Since he won’t have run support, he’s only streamable in very specific circumstances
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| 3:33 |
: He looks playable tomorrow against Gant and the Cards
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| 3:33 |
: I said as much earlier today – https://www.patreon.com/posts/20607305
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| 3:34 |
: Just how good do you think hiura will be? Eric called him a middle of the order bat the other day, would love that…
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| 3:35 |
: I don’t have any insights on Hiura. He needs to improve considerably to be a mid-order bat though. Too many whiffs on an aggressive profile.
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| 3:35 |
: However, plenty of top prospects look like this as 21-year-olds in Single- and Double-A before making adjustments and going nuts
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| 3:35 |
: Still a wide range of potential outcomes with stardom among them
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| 3:35 |
: Matt Chapman or Yonder in a 12 team roto? Thanks!
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| 3:36 |
: Need HR or a little more balance?
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| 3:36 |
: I want to say Chapman because he’s definitely the better player, but Yonder may out play him on the fantasy spreadsheet. It’s pretty close to a coin flip for me
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| 3:36 |
: Peter Alonso == Rhys Hoskins? getting babip’d in AAA but mashing otherwise
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| 3:37 |
: That’s a comp I used earlier this year. I don’t think we’re looking at anywhere the same level of talent. Just look at the swinging strike and K rates.
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| 3:37 |
: Even when he was in Double-A, they weren’t Hoskins-like
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| 3:38 |
: Which late season call up is most likely to put up a Hoskins-lite performance that can make the difference in the playoffs? Eloy? Tyler O’neill? Someone else?
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| 3:38 |
: Well, O’Neill is currently on the DL. He would be my first choice. I don’t really see an impact bat for the stretch run. Maybe if the Nats have injuries it could be Robles (skewing hard to SB rather than HR).
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| 3:39 |
: Everything I’ve heard from Chicago tells me they want an excuse to send him home after the minor league season is over.
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| 3:40 |
: I don’t think they’ll penny pinch as much as other franchises though. If he hasn’t given them a reason to pass, he’ll be up in September. Probably no sooner.
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| 3:40 |
: Would you trust Paxton in Houston tomorrow? It’s a tough line-up, but has been shakier without Springer/Altuve/Correa.
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| 3:40 |
: Paxton should be used in every start. “trust” is never the right word, but the median projection is better than fantasy average.
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| 3:41 |
: How valuable is Glasnow down the stretch?
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| 3:41 |
: Not especially. They’re not using him as the second pitcher which means he’ll rarely be in line for a win
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| 3:42 |
: And if he gets stretched out, he’ll lose whatever ratio help he could have provided
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| 3:43 |
: Is this the time of the inevitable regression of Max Muncy? No one expected him to keep up his pace but it seems like he is getting hard by regression since the end of the break.
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| 3:43 |
: Yep.
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| 3:43 |
: Is this a lost year, or am I just never going to be healthy enough/productive enough to justify fantasy ownership?
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| 3:43 |
: It’s a lost year, but he should/could be ownable in most formats going forward
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| 3:43 |
: And he may even rebound this season
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| 3:44 |
: Gleyber Torres is a top-75 player next year?
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| 3:44 |
: This smells reasonable.
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| 3:45 |
: however, I’ve escaped the tyranny of rankings and let me tell you – it’s much easier to play fantasy baseball without all those shitty anchors
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| 3:45 |
: Although trade talks can be a headache when somebody throws some terribly curated list under your nose like it means a damned thing.
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| 3:46 |
: I don’t care who RotoDunce ranks as a top 100 whatever
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| 3:46 |
: How much are you buying the new Kole Calhoun? 281/349/623 in 166 PA since 6/1 with his usual K/BB. 255/333/475 guy going forward? better?
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| 3:46 |
: So here’s exactly what is happening with Calhoun…
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| 3:47 |
: He made a major adjustment, one that exploits his old weaknesses. Opposing pitchers have yet to counteradjust. They’re just feeding pitches right into his new strength
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| 3:47 |
: We’re probably starting to see the adjustment happen now.
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| 3:48 |
: Is Jimmy Nelson worth a stash considering his severe injury?
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| 3:48 |
: Depends on the format. He’s not going to win you a league
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| 3:48 |
: Javier Baez is:
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| 3:49 |
: Very physically gifted
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| 3:49 |
: Probably painfully streaky
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| 3:49 |
: How much value does Scott Kingery have in a keeper league?
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| 3:49 |
: Depends on format again. What I think of as “keeper” should probably cut Kingery. Yet he’s still quite valuable in a dynasty.
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| 3:50 |
: I think he’ll improve in a legit fantasy asset over the next couple seasons. But that’s not what you want in a keeper league. You want stars and massive bargains.
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| 3:50 |
: Kingery offers neither in the near future.
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| 3:50 |
: Robinson Chirinos is a top ___ catcher the rest of the way
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| 3:50 |
: 5 to 12
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| 3:51 |
: Which is exactly where he was before the season. Funny that
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| 3:51 |
: Is Thaiss a guy? seems like a swing changer getting to his power
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| 3:51 |
: I have the same read. I was completely out on him heading into the season. I’d grab free shares in dynasty if I could (he’s already taken).
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| 3:51 |
: What is a tout?
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| 3:52 |
: People (like me) who tell readers who they should roster.
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| 3:52 |
: Wait you live in Durham?
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| 3:52 |
: Carrboro to be precise.
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| 3:52 |
: Value of Ketel Marte in an NL only keep forever league?
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| 3:53 |
: Pretty high
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| 3:53 |
: I know it’s been irresponsibly used in the past, but 2017 Jose Ramirez is in the range of possible outcomes.
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| 3:53 |
: I don’t think he gets there, but even 60% of that is a pretty useful player in an Only
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| 3:53 |
: Need a top SP to win a 14 team league. Is Tatis Jr too much to give for Paxton? Only get to keep for 2 years, not forever.
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| 3:54 |
: So it’s Tatis through 2020?
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| 3:54 |
: I think that’s a payable price. Unlikely to destroy the world in the next 2 seasons
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| 3:54 |
: Under normal dynasty conditions, I’d want more than Paxton
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| 3:54 |
: Is Juan Soto a first round pick in standard formats next year? Not sure how hes any different than an Arenado in standard 5×5… and potentially even better in OBP
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| 3:55 |
: Definitely not
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| 3:55 |
: Under no circumstance.
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| 3:55 |
: Unless somebody injects him with Byron Buxton’s speed
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| 3:55 |
: I want to take 3 closers into playoffs. Currently own Rodney, Knebel, Peralta, Strop, Strickland. Who can I count on?
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| 3:55 |
: Uh, boy…
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| 3:55 |
: None of them
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| 3:55 |
: Seriously, I’m so sorry
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| 3:56 |
: I think you make your bet on the best talents – that’s Knebel, Strop, and uh, Rodney…
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| 3:56 |
: Would you rather stash Jimmy Nelson or Jesus Luzardo in Dynasty/Keep forever?
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| 3:57 |
: I passed on this the first time it was asked because I’m torn. I think we need to see Luzardo against Triple-A hitters and Nelson against anybody
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| 3:57 |
: That’s a whole bunch of missing information
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| 3:58 |
: asdrubal cabrera worth trading for as a cheap keeper? could keep him @ $4 next year $260 budget 15 teams. cost would be unkeepable raisel iglesias
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| 3:58 |
: I do not think keeping Asdrubal Cabrera – even for $4 – is a smart play
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| 3:58 |
: If that’s 15-team NL-Only, then maybe 🙂
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| 3:58 |
: Milwaukee Closer roles seems to not be settled , surprisingly. Who are the leaders for saves for ROS?
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| 3:58 |
: Probably still Knebel or Jeremy Jeffress
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| 3:59 |
: Yes Hader is the best of the four options
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| 3:59 |
: But they’ll keep him in a multi-inning role
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| 3:59 |
: We’re switching from AVG to OPS next year in my 12 team roto. Should I be weighing that when considering dealing away or acquiring keepers, or should I just stick to this year (as I’m trying to win now)? Thanks!
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| 3:59 |
: Take the present if you can. Prepare for the future when the present is lost.
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| 4:00 |
: Is there any talk of bringing back some sort of top 100 fantasy prospects list? eric and Kiley do great work, but it can sometimes be difficult to suss out fantasy value
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| 4:00 |
: I imagine we’ll talk to them over the offseason about that sort of list.
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| 4:00 |
: I know everybody loves lists
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| 4:00 |
: From personal experience, they’re mostly misleading
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| 4:01 |
: What you need to know are which prospects have game breaking ability
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| 4:01 |
: all the rest of them don’t matter. So we’re talking like 15 to 30 guys at a given time
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| 4:01 |
: after that it’s just tool mixes interacted with breakout potential
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| 4:01 |
: A lot of eventually good players are never hyper-touted prospects
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| 4:02 |
: and people miss them because they’re too focused on lists
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| 4:02 |
: (12 Teamer) If Soto finishes the year with more walks than Ks, top 5 in wRC+, and 20+ HRs, will he go in the first round next year?
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| 4:02 |
: No.
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| 4:02 |
: I’ll add this. Under those conditions, somebody will take him top 12 thinking they’re a friggin genius.
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| 4:03 |
: But it’s a foolish play
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| 4:03 |
: Outside of a few fringe scenarios. A startup dynasty for example.
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| 4:03 |
: Peraza had a great hot streak going but now is just 1 for 2 on SB attempts over the last month. Worth a hold (using him as Util in 5×5) or move on to someone like Mallex Smith?
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| 4:03 |
: I’d take Mallex over Peraza.
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| 4:03 |
: On that note, I need to wrap it up and get ready for some MiLB baseball
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| 4:04 |
: Thanks for playing.
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
So if you don’t like an ordinal prospects list, why not do exactly what you suggested? Give a list (perhaps just tiers) of prospects with “game breaking ability” in the fantasy sense. Then maybe a few other lists of guys with standout potential in single categories, or guys that might be monsters if they solve problem “X” … that sort of thing.
And a very very short list of pitching prospects that are worth betting on even tho TINSTAAPP
I do this intermittently throughout the season and over the winter. Usually a player at a time.
Yeah, and it’s gooderly, thanks 🙂 I’m just agreeing that a more holistic view of potential fantasy impact (don’t call it a ranking!) would be an excellent supplement to the general prospect top-100 stuff that gets all confusing because they care about defense.