Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 7/31/2018
Here’s today’s chat transcript. Lots of deadline fallout to consider.
4:01 |
: We’ll start in a moment here. By your silence, I assume you’re also staring at twitter waiting for surprise last-minute deals.
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4:02 |
: Hi! Best new holds guy after the deadline?
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4:02 |
: Let me digest. Holds guys are already difficult to pin down
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4:03 |
: Mostly the guys who were good for holds before the deadline.
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4:03 |
: Pressly gets a boost
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4:03 |
: ROS? Chris Taylor or Ian Kinsler for 2B? (Position flexibility not a factor)
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4:03 |
: Taylor me
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4:03 |
: I’m in a leauge with HLD, K/BB and QS as added categories. I have the option of 4 keepers max ($260 salary). Who makes more sense at the cost; Hader at $10, D. Rodriguez at $10 or Snell at $8
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4:03 |
: Snell by miles and miles and miles
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4:04 |
: Preferred arm ROS. Nola or Severino?
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4:04 |
: Small preference for Nola.
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4:04 |
: I assume he plays more Marlins and Mets
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4:04 |
: Sev only has Orioles for those roll-over games
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4:04 |
: hold on to Jose Martinez? he wasn’t playing at first because Shilt hates fantasy.
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4:05 |
: Best to hold for now
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4:05 |
: Ramos was/is my starting C. Robinson Chirinos has been surprisingly amazing since Ramos hit the DL. What’s my ROS look like? Chrinos going to go back to normal? Did Ramos’ production increase?
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4:05 |
: Ramos probably lost that trade, he’ll be no higher than fifth in the Phillies lineup – if he’s lucky
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4:06 |
: I like Chirinos as a guy who hits HR. Ramos has more categories, but he’s weeks away from returning
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4:06 |
: what do you think about schoop’s recent resurgence? just a hot bat or some positive regression ? does he keep it up and where is he traded to??
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4:06 |
: So it’s a little of both. I think he probably made an adjustment which is letting him smash some baseballs better than before
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4:07 |
: However, he’s gone even more violently aggressive than normal during his hot streak
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4:07 |
: which ultimately limits his upside.
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4:07 |
: Long term thoughts on Devers?
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4:07 |
: He’s a good young player
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4:08 |
: What’s wrong with Kluber? He’s been awful in July, K’s are down and just looks like he isn’t fooling guys. You worried?
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4:08 |
: He says it’s a mechanical issue
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4:08 |
: I have both Andujar and Moose. now that Moose is in a better hitting environment, ok to cut andujar to make room? or hold both and play matchups?
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4:09 |
: Depends on the opportunity cost. Absent other info, I’d mix and match. However, if Andujar can turn into something like Jose Leclerc, he should.
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4:09 |
: OK Brad, who are the best new closers now that the deadline is here?
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4:10 |
: Well Yates isn’t new, but he didn’t lose his job today. Giles will be back. Leclerc.
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4:10 |
: McCullers is very unpredictable and I have tried to trade but no takers. would you cut him for a guy like Pivetta? 10 team h2h
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4:10 |
: Absolutely not
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4:10 |
: Is it worth stashing Cano right now, with Cesar Hernandez already on my roster at 2B and Kinsler available as a free agent? The other stash option is Eloy (as OF/Util). This is an OBP league.
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4:10 |
: I’d stash Cano.
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4:10 |
: Does the diekman deal make it Leclerc? I know it’s not definite but are the odds he’s the man the rest of the way – 75%?
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4:11 |
: Probably. I guess watch out for Alex Claudio…
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4:11 |
: Bryant and Machado are both keepable for 4 yrs in shallow OBP keeper. With the shoulder injury, what should
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4:11 |
: Machado over Bryant
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4:12 |
: We’re talking about two elite talents. I’ll always take the guy playing well now in that case.
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4:12 |
: Is Buster Posey an upgrade over Wilson Ramos? OBP league
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4:12 |
: Absolutely
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4:12 |
: What tier of hitter can I target with Edwin Diaz?
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4:13 |
: The way I’d handle it is Diaz+what gets me JD Martinez or whatever it is you need
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4:14 |
: NL-only, please rank ROS: Archer, Gausman, Jonathan Gray (cut and on waivers)
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4:14 |
: Archer, Gray, Gausman
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4:15 |
: I’m a little frustrated over a trade in my league. It’s a 10 team 40 man roster 6X6 OPS, keep 20. The trade was Giolito and Longo for Sano and Span. I think the side trading Giolito and Longo won that easily. Is that a reasonable trade or do you think I’m overreacting?
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4:15 |
: Getting Sano there is a massive win, but it passes a smell test as plausible
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4:15 |
: Thames or Smoak RoS?
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4:15 |
: Hesitant Smoak pick
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4:15 |
: I friggin’ love Thames
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4:16 |
: but he’s platooned
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4:16 |
: You’ve said before you haven’t seen good evidence xstats are useful…but most guys do see wOBA converge to xWOBA over enough PAs (95% are within +- .040 per a fg article this year, min 500 PAs)…and most of the big outliers are guys who get shifted, or guys who are really fast and get a lot of infield hits. Not really a question, but I’d love to hear your take.
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4:16 |
: I’ll reevaluate after the season unless somebody hands me a smoking gun right now
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4:17 |
: It’s not like I don’t believe xStats are useful.
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4:17 |
: I just prefer to look at components
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4:18 |
: 12 team, dynasty, keep everyone forever, 12 categories (Regular + OPS, QS instead of Ws & BAA). Have the best bats in the league (Betts, Harper, Machado, Soto, Rizzo, Baez, Marte, Suarez) and the worst pitching (Thor and a dumpster fire). In 5th a few games back of the last playoff spot. Just traded Yellich, Bauers, Tyler O’Neill & Pivetta for Garritt Cole and Andrew Heaney. Think I did fine there. Getting a ton of offers on Baby Vlad for aces (Bauer, Aaron Nola, etc). Is he untouchable even in my position?
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4:19 |
: That’s a tricky position. I don’t think there’s a flat out wrong answer IF it gets you into the postseason. The only way you wind up looking stupid is you take Nola (it’s definitely Nola over Bauer), his arm asplodes, and Vlad goes straight to the hall.
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4:20 |
: Personally, I’d keep Vlad. Pitching is so volatile. Kluber can spontaneously turn into Mike Fiers. Scrubs can suddenly catch fire.
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4:21 |
: You didn’t mention if it’s roto or H2H which is obviously important
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4:21 |
: In H2H categories, is it better to have depth on offense or more pitchers to rack up counting stats?
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4:21 |
: Yes.
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4:22 |
: It really depends on what everybody else is doing and/or how your roster is constructed.
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4:22 |
: I often roster 5 aces in 12 team H2H. So I go heavy on $1 hitters with my bench spots until I find enough good guys to shift back towards setup relievers with upside.
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4:23 |
: Even within one season, I’m using my bench differently depending on the status of my roster
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4:24 |
: Are the Brewers planning on platooning at nearly every position? How is this playing time going to sort out? Concerned Travis Shaw owner here.
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4:24 |
: Ah the Schoop trade did happen
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4:24 |
: Well Shaw obvious plays, uh, catcher?
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4:25 |
: Shaw honestly can’t hit a lick against left-handed pitching this year
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4:25 |
: So I’ll assume they’re planning a straight platoon and hedging against Shaw being unable to field 2B
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4:25 |
: Shaw is a better hitter than Schoop if we’re ignoring defensive considerations.
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4:26 |
: Who does archer push out of Pirates rotation? Own both musgrove and kingham. Musgrove has been a bit better recently, but noticed a lot of Kingham love ROS. Lastly, have a firm stance on Astros situation? Own rondon with osuna available, saves worth 8 holds worth 5. Thanks man!
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4:27 |
: Honestly, I have no idea. I know I’d be booting Ivan Nova if I was trying to reach the postseason with that roster.
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4:27 |
: But it’s probably Kingham on an innings limit or something
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4:27 |
: Any interesting backup guys starting now because of trades?
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4:28 |
: Not really. The teams selling players were already terrible. The Cardinals are less crowded in the OF
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4:28 |
: If I couldn’t save Cole, why can I save Archer?
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4:28 |
: I don’t think Archer requires saving.
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4:28 |
: 12 team points – I was contemplating keeping Brandon Nimmo for next year as a last round keeper. Is that too much of a stretch and is it time to move on for rest of season?
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4:29 |
: Let’s see how he plays down the stretch. The league adjusted to him and he’s slumped hard. If he counter-adjusts, that’s a good long term sign.
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4:29 |
: And makes him look like a keeper
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4:29 |
: similar NL only question, I have Bryant/Happ/Bote covering 3B… should I worry about Bryant’s health and Happ’s K%/BABIP and bid heavy on Moose or Escobar?
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4:30 |
: Seems like an obvious upgrade on Happ/Bote while Bryant is out. I prefer Moose.
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4:30 |
: Can you do something else with that money?
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4:30 |
: Fangraphs points ottoneu league, should I consider moving a $49 Kluber? I am mostly out of it this year and I am hesitant to keep him next year.
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4:30 |
: Yes, sell
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4:30 |
: Does Osuna close in HOU?
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4:31 |
: Oh yea, that was the second part of a question I ignored.
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4:31 |
: “Lastly, have a firm stance on Astros situation? Own rondon with osuna available, saves worth 8 holds worth 5. Thanks man!”
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4:31 |
: Well, I suppose we’re waiting for official word, but Osuna is a top 5 closer and top 10 RP in the league.
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4:32 |
: As abominable as his domestic violence situation is, I personally can’t fault a playoff team for taking a chance he’s reformed.
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4:32 |
: I think they acquired him to close
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4:33 |
: I’ll add, I’m just a white guy who writes about fantasy baseball. My opinions are only relevant insofar as Osuna’s ability to play baseball.
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4:33 |
: There are people far more qualified than I to talk about IF Osuna should be allowed to play
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4:33 |
: Am I crazy for starting Cahill AND Shields tonight?
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4:34 |
: Not really. Scary though.
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4:34 |
: Help! 10 tm points, head to head, pitchers are high scoring: offer Paxton+Mikolas+Soto for Sale? OF would be Betts, Yelich,conforto
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4:34 |
: Looks like an overpay to me
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4:34 |
: I don’t play any leagues that shallow though so I could be wrong
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4:34 |
: As replacement level increases, the price for elite talent also increases
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4:35 |
: Yeah but they didn’t acquire Schoop and Moose to not play either of those guys regularly. Shaw just isn’t going to be a regular anymore i
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4:35 |
: So is Shaw gonna play, uh, shortstop now?
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4:35 |
: More seriously, is Shaw basically droppable now? I don’t see how this dude is gonna play at all.
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4:35 |
: eh sorry my question got cut off due to typing on phone. Shaw maybe a candidate for a waiver trade out of MIL?
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4:35 |
: I can’t imagine they plan to stop playing Shaw. They’re not dumb. He’s very obviously a better hitter than Moose and Schoop.
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4:35 |
: So Jose Leclerc should be the favorite to get saves in Texas, right?
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4:35 |
: Right
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4:36 |
: I’m within striking distance of several teams in SB in a roto league. Who should I add for steals who also won’t be a total BA and OBP drain? Adalberto Mondesi, Mallex, Taylor or DeShields? Maybe make a trade instead?
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4:36 |
: Taylor is the best player on the list, but you can’t actually count on SB
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4:36 |
: So that leaves Mallex
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4:36 |
: He won’t drain BA/OBP too badly, but he won’t do much else
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4:37 |
: AL-Only: I stashed a bunch and ended up with these 7 potential closers. Leclerc, Giles, W. Peralta, Givens, Parker, Fry, Hildenberger. Looks like Hildy may be a drop, but how would you rank these guys ROS?
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4:37 |
: Giles, Leclerc, Parker, Givens *cliff* Fry, Peralta, Hildenberger
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4:37 |
: Unless I completely missed a Rodney trade
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4:37 |
: I did not
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4:38 |
: Could you rank Meadows, Bonifacio, B. Phillips, Maybin?
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4:38 |
: Meadows
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4:38 |
: Just Meadows
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4:38 |
: Is Beltre a keeper in a 20 team keep 15 league? Or is he over the hill now. Seems like he was a really good, healthy 3b and then these hamstring issues that popped up late last year derailed him
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4:39 |
: He’s not a top 300 keeper
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4:39 |
: Your roster MAY be built such that he should be kept, but it’s unlikely
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4:39 |
: I’m probably cutting him in my 20 team, keep 28
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4:39 |
: Don’t tell my leaguemates. I assume I can swap him for a draft pick of some kind
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4:40 |
: Going back to the Kluber ottoneu question, what type of return should I shoot for?
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4:40 |
: I think this is a case to solicit offers, see who says “hey I want him,” then pick out the best keeper on the roster and ask “Kluber+ what for Stud Keeper?”
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4:41 |
: Obviously going to wait more than five minutes before freaking out that Shaw is my current starting 3B (maybe ten minutes?), but if he gets benched who would you pick up among Gurriel, Beltre, Franco, Sano?
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4:41 |
: Gurriel is the high floor option. Sano has the ceiling. They’re all fine.
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4:41 |
: I wouldn’t worry about Schoop eating into Shaw’s playing time. MIL can always slide him in at 1B or cOF. Oh … wait …
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4:41 |
: So then….is Moose going to lose playing time? Are all owners of that love triangle screwed?
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4:42 |
: allow me to rephrase my 2 qs into 1: nl only daily h2h, i have murphy+ketel at 2b, bryant/happ/bote at 3b, and a shaky rotation rounded out by musgrove/ray. which upgrade should i spend big on: moustakas escobar dozier schoop archer or gaus?
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4:42 |
: I’d grab Archer.
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4:42 |
: Archer’s is past his prime, and hasn’t posted an ERA below 4 since his age 27 season in a ballpark that is just as pitcher friendly as PNC. Yes, he’s cheap and controllable, but I’m not buying it as an upgrade at the expense of Meadows in particular
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4:43 |
: Let’s be clear, it’s definitely a very large upgrade. Archer is instantly the best pitcher on that staff.
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4:44 |
: However, I know I couldn’t trade Archer for Meadows straight up in my deepest dynasty league so I’m surprised it happened in reality.
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4:44 |
: Especially since he’s demoed well in the majors
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4:44 |
: I like you and think all your content (Fangraphs & Patreon) is top notch.
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4:44 |
: Grazi
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4:44 |
: Just got sent the following in an Ottoneu Fgpts league where I have the most pts scored for the year: their $52 Kluber & $7 Marwin + $50 Loan for my $2 Jon Gray, $3 Soroka and $4 Jo Adell. I feel like this is an easy pass but flags fly forever…
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4:45 |
: Depends on your Kluber take. If you think he’ll be normal Kluber RoS, then this looks like an easy accept. Or at least a counter-able idea
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4:45 |
: but if you think he’ll take time to rebound and isn’t a keeper, then no real point to moving Gray
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4:45 |
: In the second scenario, you’re projecting Gray and Kluber similarly RoS
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4:46 |
: Dynasty keep forever. Not in a playoff spot. Do i trade Strasburg for Pache and Gore?
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4:46 |
: That’s an unimpressive return
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4:46 |
: My dynasty league kinda works like this too. Strasburg was recently dealt for Brandon Lowe, Nathaniel Lowe, and some other stuff. As somebody who wanted Strasburg too, I was nonplussed.
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4:47 |
: Taijuan Walker, Danny Duffy, and Mike Moustakas were the other pieces in the deal. Guy getting Strasburg basically got 4 throw-ins.
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4:48 |
: Walker has some potential, but Duffy is a cut and Moustakas is bland for our OBP format.
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4:48 |
: Anyway, point being, now seems like a terrible time to sell Strasburg
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4:48 |
: Worst that happens is he completely falls apart and you get nothing
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4:49 |
: Pache and Gore are interesting but a little too far away for my tastes given the uncertainty in their profile
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4:49 |
: If that was Meadows, Pache, and Gore…
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4:49 |
: Dynasty points league: Kenley Jansen and Jean Segura for Tony Kemp an Trevor Story?
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4:49 |
: Story side for me
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4:49 |
: Current saves needs are relevant
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4:50 |
: Aguilar has been pretty terrible for a few weeks, FYI. Maybe he sits? As a Shaw and Schoop owner, I am about to blow chunks.
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4:50 |
: Ahem…
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4:50 |
: hold up, I can’t find the article I meant to plug
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4:51 | : Here we go: |
4:51 |
: The Many Flavors of Regression: Featuring Jesus Aguilar circa July 13
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4:52 |
: Since that post, Aguilar is hitting .136/.255/.227 with no power or BABIP.
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4:52 |
: How much does Gausman’s value go up with trade to ATL in a redraft format?
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4:52 |
: A little, not much
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4:52 |
: Add Kinsler in new lineup for Solarte who has been ice cold?
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4:52 |
: Yea
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4:52 |
Giles, Leclerc, Parker, Givens *cliff* Fry, Peralta, Hildenberger |
4:52 |
: Around Parker, but only for right now
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4:52 |
: Morrow is back soon
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4:53 |
: Starting Duffy at 3B in a 12 team standard h2h, keep 4 forever. Would you trade Soto for Rendon in this case? Thanks!
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4:53 |
: I would hate to do that, but Soto may be fringier as a keeper than he seems
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4:53 |
: Seems like you could aim higher though
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4:53 |
: Unless you need the handful of SB over an Arenado.
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4:53 |
: Brad- are you worried about McCullers? Been a while since we’ve seen a quality start
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4:54 |
: No. This is who he is
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4:54 |
: It could be that my impression of him differs from the commonly held view
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4:54 |
: RE: Strasburg What should I be looking to acquire
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4:54 |
: At least one premium prospect and more
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4:55 |
: Or I always prefer to offer more than the guy I’m selling to get something MLB ready
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4:55 |
: Will Snell/Bryant come back soon and be able to produce?
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4:55 |
: Sounds like they should
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4:55 |
: Would you sell high on Muncy with Dozier now in th mix?
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4:55 |
: I like that idea
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4:55 |
: The Many Flavors of Regression could have been about Max Muncy
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4:55 |
: though he has a better skill set than Aguilar
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4:55 |
: and better than 10 grade speed on the 20-80 scouting scale
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4:57 |
: Trying to win this year in a 14 team dynasty points league – would you trade Corey Seager for Bauer? I have Correa, Dee, Andrus, Altuve at MIF with Tatis on the way… Thanks!
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4:57 |
: Seems plausible, especially if it’s normal 5×5 roto
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4:58 |
: Seager’s better in otto FGpts or other linear weights-based formats
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4:58 |
: Robles and Nimmo or McCullers in a 14 team dynasty points league (points favor hr/obp bats and high K pitchers). Thanks!
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4:58 |
: Tricky. I think I’d play the bats.
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4:58 |
: 10 team OBP keeper. Machado or Bryant/Moncada/K Marte?
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4:58 |
: Gut says Machado unless those other guys are also upgrades for you
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4:59 |
: Do your league-mates check in on your chats? Or do they even know who you are?
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4:59 |
: Oh they know
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4:59 |
: Depends on the league
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4:59 |
: The 20 team dynasty I often reference is all industry folk
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4:59 |
: They have other things to do than hang out in chats
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5:00 |
: I know at least half my home league reads my chats because they give me shit for referencing them
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5:00 |
: Keuchel for Myers? 12 team H2H OBP Categories.
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5:00 |
: Gimme the Myers side
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5:00 |
: How much PT does ONeill get now that Pham is gone?
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5:00 |
: I’d love to say all
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5:00 |
: I don’t know yet
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5:00 |
: Dozier’s value increase/decrease going to LAD?
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5:00 |
: Close to same
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5:01 |
: He’ll play a little less often which might help him perform at better rates
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5:01 |
: better lineup should equal better rates too
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5:01 |
: Unfortunately, since it’s a left-coast team, you might get stuck with some 1 PA pinch hit games if you’re not setting lineups at 6:30pm ET
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5:02 |
: Drop Teheran for Gohara or Touki in a keep forever? Just trying to get ahead of the game on the Braves rotation. Thanks!
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5:02 |
: Meh
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5:02 |
: That’s all kinds of shrug in my opinion. Do what feels right to you
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5:02 |
: Perhaps there are other, better teams to get ahead of?
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5:02 |
: Trade Cruz for one of Corbin or McCullers>?
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5:02 |
: Plausible
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5:02 |
: Should be acceptable from the other end
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5:02 |
: Any effect on Max Muncy’s playing time now that they have Dozier?
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5:03 |
: Unlikely to start against left-handed pitchers now
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5:03 |
: obviously this trade is good for villar’s playing time, but i’m not sure if i see anything positive in his profile. do you see anything promising? anything overwhelmingly awful?
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5:03 |
: It’s mostly bad bad bad
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5:03 |
: but he’ll run
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5:03 |
: that’s… cool
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5:03 |
: “I know at least half my home league reads my chats because they give me shit for referencing them.” Hi lol
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5:04 |
: Hi Brad,
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5:04 |
: This is usually the end of the chat
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5:04 |
: An odd time for hellos
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5:04 |
: Will Snell be TBs only conventional starter now? Or will Faria/Beeks/Chirinos get starts?
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5:04 |
: I think Faria will be a normal starter
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5:04 |
: I expect to see Beeks and Chirinos in the hybrid starter role
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5:04 |
: Would you drop W. Peralta or Fry for Tepera? I guess this is another way of asking how quickly Giles gets the role in Tor…
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5:05 |
: Probably pretty quickly
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5:05 |
: but those two are so bad that I’d cringe from using both of em
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5:05 |
: So betting on further Giles hiccups seems reasonable
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5:05 |
: Glasnow gonna stud in TB?
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5:06 |
: According to Jon Heyman, the Rays actually acquired Glasgow – a city in Scottland
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5:06 |
: That should help them to fund their new stadium
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5:07 |
: In all seriousness, I doubt the Rays send Glasnow to stud. That would be weird.
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5:07 |
: And deeply illegal
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5:07 |
: I assume
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5:07 |
: It’s Florida, why am I assuming
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5:07 |
: Is it fair to say muncy in a split, he hits 172 wrc vs L and 156 vs R in 70 PA vs 242 PA
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5:07 |
: No but look at the lineups. Is Hernandez just not playing anymore?
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5:08 |
: That could be the answer
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5:08 |
: or Puig
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5:09 |
: Joc?
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5:09 |
: I guess those are the 3 most likely to lose starts
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5:09 |
: not Muncy
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5:09 |
Is he really a fringe keeper in a keep-4? Obviously league size and rules matter, but surely they’re outweighed if there’s a good keeper price on a teen phenom like Soto? |
5:09 |
: You said that’s a 12-team, right
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5:09 |
: So you’re keeping 48 players.
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5:10 |
: Since he doesn’t steal and doesn’t have absurd HR rates
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5:10 |
: and probably has some kind of sophomore slump
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5:10 |
: We’re looking at a fringe top 50 player. The youth pushes him to around mid-30s.
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5:11 |
: Upside is he turns into a perennial top 10 bat – except we’re living in an era where I could say that about upwards of 100 hitters.
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5:11 |
: Don’t get me wrong
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5:11 |
: I love Juan Soto
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5:12 |
: I own him in a bunch of leagues and have poopooed all trade inquiries
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5:12 |
: Has McMahon turned a corner? Can he get regular PT, because he’s starting at 2B today
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5:12 |
: LeMahieu is on the way back though
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5:13 |
: I can’t really judge corner turns off two games
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5:13 |
: Is Villar really going to run though? Aren’t the O’s perennial bottom dwellers when it comes to SBs?
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5:13 |
: That’s more a function of the players than the philosophy
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5:13 |
: Slow teams shouldn’t run
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5:13 |
: And they wanted to keep Machado healthy
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5:13 |
: Check out Craig Gentry
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5:13 |
: Where did Dereck Rodriguez come from?
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5:14 |
: Well… it all started when Ivan Rodriguez met a woman he presumably fancied…
|
5:15 |
: Enjoyed Jeff’s writeup of the Pham trade! Do you think his value increases or decreases by going to TB?
|
5:15 |
: No effect
|
5:15 |
: Is Luis Castillo back? Dominant last start and his control has been awesome since early June.
|
5:15 |
: Looks better lately
|
5:15 |
: I’m encouraged.
|
5:15 |
: I’ve spent all season trying to buy low to no avail
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5:16 |
: Jed Lowrie, Cesar Hernandez, or Tim Anderson ROS?
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5:16 |
: Do you need HR and OBP/AVG, balance, or only HR/SB
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5:16 |
: Side note, Tim Anderson is the worst player people think is good
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5:16 |
: He’s so terrible at hitting
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5:17 |
: Middle of a fluky-looking career season with a .290 OBP
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5:17 |
: Time to wrap things up and digest the deadline more fully
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5:18 |
: Apologies if asked and answered . . . who does Dozier to LAD most directly hurt? Chris Taylor? Seems like Muncy to 3B, Manny at SS, Dozier at 2B . . .
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5:18 |
: It’s a whole cluster of mess
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5:18 |
: I don’t know
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5:19 |
: Anytime a team has way too many players at a spot, injuries magically fix things
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5:19 |
: Let’s let the dust clear
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5:19 |
: And on that wonderful vague advice, I bid you adieu
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Re: Archer Pirates best pitcher:
Jameson Taillon says hi
Hi Jameson. You’re not quite there yet.