Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 7-16-2019

We chatted. Behold.

3:58
Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few moments.

4:01
Seeds: Brad, are you buying Tyler Beede’s newfound slider as the missing piece to make him a contributor down the stretch?

4:01
Brad Johnson: There’s a lot I’m buying about Tyler Beede, but the missing piece is command. Pure and simple.

4:01
Brad Johnson: And I’m not sure that’s really improved all that much lately – it’s hard to tell. You know the drill, small sample sizes and such.

4:02
Brad Johnson: I’m comfortable labeling him as at least a good reliever right now with potential to also be an interesting SP.

4:02
Ryan: Who do you like more RoS in a standard 5×5, Hiura, or Scooter?

4:02
Brad Johnson: That’s a rusty looking scooter. You can’t just leave him out in the rain.

4:03
Brad Johnson: Trying too hard… In any case, as of today I’d pick Hiura.

4:03
Brad Johnson: If you have the choice, then chances are you can always adjust later at almost no penalty

4:03
Dave: Do you think Gavin Lux will be relevant in 12-team mixed leagues this year?

4:03
Brad Johnson: No, not remotely. If he even gets a call up, it’s to start 3 games in September.

4:04
Brad Johnson: A fresh injury to Seager could change that analysis now that Turner is waylaid.

4:04
pat burrell’s ghost: dearest and onliest brad, in a 12 team redraft QS league, would you rather have dylan cease or chris archer whose last start obviously means he is fixed, until rich hill maybe ever gets back?

4:04
Brad Johnson: ick

4:04
Brad Johnson: I don’t know their upcoming starts offhand.

4:05
Brad Johnson: Cease seems like a better gamble right now

4:05
AC: Keeper  league: Need SB’s…would you trade Luis Urias for Mallex Smith? Fair?

4:05
Brad Johnson: Instantly

4:05
Michael G Scott: 10 team, keep 4 forever points league. Would you take Devers and James Paxton for Machado and Zach Eflin?

4:06
Brad Johnson: The thing about shallow keeper formats like this is that it’s almost better to ignore the keep aspect until the end of the year. The exceptions are if you have a chance to trade a bunch of guys for a Trout, Yelich, Bellinger, etc.

4:06
Brad Johnson: That said, I prefer Machado as a keeper option. I do like Paxton as an upgrade to Eflin.

4:06
Brad Johnson: So it looks like an even trade

4:07
DynastyStarter: Trying to win now in year 1 of a keep forever dynasty…I desperately need pitching. Would you move Whitley, Kirilloff, plus more for Scherzer? My bats are young and stacked so I might not have room for upcoming prospects anyway

4:07
Brad Johnson: Depends on the plus more. That starting point isn’t terrible. But… you might as wait until he’s healthy. Nobody’s outbidding that pair as a baseline.

4:08
Pie: Was recently offered Sale for Pete Alonso in a 12 team, keep 6 standard (about a $15 price difference to keep between the two). Is this too much to pass up?

4:08
Brad Johnson: Nah, I think they’re about the same

4:08
Big Tuna : rays really gonna bench Lowe again? Is he gonna get enough playing time to matter?

4:08
Brad Johnson: Definitely can’t count on it

4:09
Brad Johnson: They’re one of a few teams – the Dodgers and Yankees included – who at full strength can be a bit of a hassle for fantasy owners

4:09
Brad Johnson: Of course, the Rays guys were supposed to be bargain assets.

4:09
Kevin: Any hope for Heaney tonight against Houston? The homers are killing him and that is not an optimal matchup.

4:09
Brad Johnson: There’s always hope Kevin

4:09
Brad Johnson: But, uh, don’t use him

4:09
Mmm Mmm Good: Do you expect Folty to be mixed-league relevant again this year?

4:10
Brad Johnson: I do not expect it. Nor would it surprise me. He’s fairly talented when his command is sharp.

4:10
Brad Johnson: That’s not all that often.

4:10
Dennis Quaid from The Rookie: Brad–you’re playing to win for this year, and perhaps next year too. Would you rather have Bellinger for a 1.5 years, or Vlad Jr for 3.5 years?

4:10
Brad Johnson: Bellinger

4:10
Brad Johnson: He’s one of the few guys I’d take over Vladito fwiw

4:10
Roger : How do you rank Julio Urias as a dynasty asset for a rebuilding squad? Is Mike Clevinger too much to give up?

4:10
Brad Johnson: Yes, I like Clevinger a lot more

4:11
Brad Johnson: With pitchers, you can almost ignore age if it’s under 30.

4:11
Brad Johnson: They all have close to the same projected shelf life when aged 29 and younger

4:11
Mmm Mmm Good: Are you buying d’Arnaud as a post-post-post-post-post-hype sleeper?

4:11
Brad Johnson: Not really

4:12
Brad Johnson: The Rays do have that midas touch. However, if you watch video of his three home runs yesterday, they were ball and park fueled lazy fly balls.

4:12
Brad Johnson: He took defensive swings on cookie pitches and got lucky three times to oppo-field.

4:13
Brad Johnson: but… if your format is sufficiently deep, pick him up then immediately sell him

4:13
Brad Johnson: I’ll brb

4:15
Ryan: Biggio or Hiura ROS?

4:15
Brad Johnson: I do love Biggio…

4:15
Brad Johnson: I need to investigate this one

4:16
Brad Johnson: I’m going to say Biggio

4:16
Brad Johnson: Hiura is probably the better player, but he has three things against him – lineup role, strikeouts, and Travis Shaw

4:17
Brad Johnson: Biggio could also run afoul of all three of those

4:17
Brad Johnson: yes, even Shaw, although that’s mostly a joke. He’s a trade candidate and the Blue Jays have something the Brewers might want (Stroman).

4:18
Nelson: How much of a premium do you add to SBs over HRs in this environment. For example, all other stats hypothetically being equal, would you rather have a guy 20HR/0SB, or 5HR/10SB ?

4:18
Brad Johnson: At that performance level, I’ll take the SBs

4:18
Brad Johnson: Partially because anybody projected to hit 5 HR could actually hit 15 ROS

4:19
Brad Johnson: Juiced ball is really warping the way fantasy is played

4:19
Tortuga: Does Howie Kendrick deserve more playing time, or is he just past his prime and a total bench bat?

4:20
Brad Johnson: He’s still a very good hitter. The issue is two-fold. He’s seemingly easily injured so a rest-heavy usage pattern is ideal. And because the Nats have redundancy at his positions, they’re going to use those guys too. I like Dozier for a big second half fwiw which could push Kendrick into a dusty corner of the bench if the Zim/Adams platoon also performs.

4:20
Bruce: Machado V Jose Ramirez ROS?

4:21
Brad Johnson: Oof, I want to quintuple down on Ramirez, but I’ll go with Machado

4:21
Wild Thing: Since Biggio won vs. Hiura….who wins the next match up?

4:21
Brad Johnson:

Biggio vs Hiura?

Biggio (28.9% | 22 votes)
 
Hiura (71.0% | 54 votes)
 

Total Votes: 76
4:21
Ryan: Who closes in SF after the trade deadline, I’m stashing Moronta….

4:22
Brad Johnson: I kinda doubt they’ll offload all four of their vets

4:22
Brad Johnson: so… whichever gets left behind

4:22
Brad Johnson: The issue is they’re going to squeeze as much as they can from Smith so they’ll want to keep resources on hand to improve that offer.

4:23
Brad Johnson: Don’t want to trade Melancon or Dyson for a lotto ticket only to find out he would have netted them a blue chipper if attached to Smith

4:23
Brad Johnson: And Smith will probably be dealt close to the last minute, leaving little time to execute the secondary stuff.

4:24
Brad Johnson: All that said, Moronta is the best bet among the non-oldies.

4:24
KilleBrews: Will MLB go back to ball from 2018 next season or does the madness continue?

4:25
Brad Johnson: That’s not really how it works. Apparently, the 2019 ball is an unhappy side effect of better quality control.

4:25
Brad Johnson: Next MLB needs to adjust the process so that there’s higher quality AND a less juicy baseball

4:25
Brad Johnson: There’s a 6-12 month lag between production and usage so this might have been fixed by now.

4:26
AJ: Who gets alllll thoooose saves in KC after Kennedy is gone

4:26
Brad Johnson: Blech

4:26
Brad Johnson: Don’t do it

4:26
AJ: Why do the Dodgers have Will Smith in AAA?  He is the best C on their roster, right?

4:27
Brad Johnson: Could be true. Isn’t certainly true though. Meanwhile, Martin and Barnes are good enough. I think Smith is probably their playoff catcher, but they lose little value in managing their resources such that they can keep all 3

4:27
KevDog: Would you rather have Lourdes Gurriel Jr or Ramon Laureano ROS?…need to drop a bat that qualifies as an outfielder.

4:27
Brad Johnson: Really hard to drop either of them right now.

4:27
Brad Johnson: I think Gurriel would be my cut of the two

4:28
Sir: What non-traditional stat do you hope will be more regularly accounted for in fantasy baseball? My vote is for HR/9

4:28
Brad Johnson: Is that non-traditional? I use it very heavily in DFS and for ottoneu.

4:28
Glenn Spankman: Schwarber is absolutely scalding the ball this year (98th percentile in Statcast exit velocity and hard hit %) while posting the highest contact rate of his career. Has he taken a step forward or is he the same career .229/.336/.471 hitter?

4:28
Brad Johnson: I think he’s very modestly improved

4:29
Brad Johnson: Kind of a linear type of growth rather than the usual chunky breakouts/declines we usually  see in baseball

4:30
Brad Johnson: Side note, this is what I hate about all baseball video games. Nearly every player improves/declines along a predictable aging curve. Of the games I’ve played only OOTP does a decent job mimicking reality.

4:30
Mike: Thoughts on Tommy Edman?  He had 30sb in the minors last season, can play multiple positions…is he better than Wong?

4:30
Brad Johnson: I like him more than Wong

4:31
Wild Thing: Biggio vs. Mercado

4:32
Brad Johnson:

Biggio vs Mercado

Biggio (56.8% | 29 votes)
 
Mercado (43.1% | 22 votes)
 

Total Votes: 51
4:32
jw: Are the Dodgers changing baseball with their approach to hitting?…it is obvious in their follow thru

4:32
Brad Johnson: Care to elaborate?

4:32
Brad Johnson: I mostly only get Dodger highlights. I’m asleep before their games even begin.

4:33
Smitthy Longstonckings: I don’t care what the projections say, I’m going to sell Kershaw right now while his name + decent ERA bring me max return

4:33
Brad Johnson: That’s fine.

4:33
Victor Caratini: Why did the Cubs trade for a catcher?  I’m more than capable of starting or is this a sign I’m going to be traded for bullpen help?  If I got to a team where I’m a starter, I’m a top 10 catcher right?

4:34
Brad Johnson: Can never have too many catchers. Maldonado is widely regarded as a defensive savant whereas Caratini is… not.

4:34
Brad Johnson: I also don’t see him as an above average hitter

4:34
Brad Johnson: So, in brief, the Cubs have no reason to not improve their depth with Maldonado.

4:35
Roger: $8 Adell and $2 Clint Frazier for $5 Ketel Marte and $5 Meadows sound fair in Ottoneu FGPts?  Adell owner competitive and needs MI, Marte owner looking to next year.

4:35
Brad Johnson: Not close. $8 Adell is a cut if I’m playing it straight (which I wouldn’t – I’d be trying to sell his name brand)

4:36
Brad Johnson: Frazier is par value at $4 to keep

4:36
Brad Johnson: Ketel and Meadows might have a surplus of over $40

4:36
Matt: Trying to make a big push as a seller, and looking to help the guy in 2nd who won’t catch 1st, but needs to hedge against 3 guys right behind him. Looking to acquire Hanniger and Glasnow. Both super cheap ($4), but trying to focus on potentially buying 2 years of TJ recovery (salary double every 3 years, +$2 otherwise). Assuming the haul I’m giving him in commensurate, how do you feel about those two as long-term dynasty acquisitions?

4:37
Brad Johnson: They’re…fine.

4:37
Brad Johnson: I’m not overly excited about it. They’re current core performers rather than long term building blocks

4:37
Brad Johnson: Without knowing what you’re giving, I can’t add more.

4:38
Brad Johnson: If it’s just a wad of old guys, go for it.

4:38
Dave: Where do you think Devers goes in drafts in 2020?

4:38
Brad Johnson: That’s going to be heavily dependent on how he finishes out 2019

4:38
Brad Johnson: There are some fluky-looking aspects to his performance.

4:38
TD: Do you like Garver or DArnaud over Posey Ros?

4:39
Brad Johnson: Not really. Maybe Garver if he need HR

4:39
James Lipton: Is Grandal benefiting more from the more hitter friendly home park or the juiced ball?

4:39
Brad Johnson: The ball

4:39
Brad Johnson: Chavez Ravine is great for HR of the type he hits (high drives)

4:40
Brad Johnson: got that tidbit from Eno

4:40
Mark: Likelihood that Mejia will eventually become an above average offensive catcher?

4:40
Brad Johnson: 40-60%

4:40
Brad Johnson: Which is pretty high all things considered.

4:40
Do You Wanna Build A Stroman?: How would you rank Stro, Thor, Wheeler, Bum, Boyd, and Greinke for teams to acquire at the deadline?

4:41
Brad Johnson: Not sure why I clicked this, it’s complicated

4:41
Brad Johnson: There are two main dimensions to consider – quality of the pitcher and perceived cost.

4:41
Brad Johnson: You’re going to have to overpay to land Thor, Boyd, or Greinke

4:41
Brad Johnson: Alternatively, Stroman and Bum are definitely going to be traded. Wheeler is pretty likely to go too.

4:42
Brad Johnson: Thor, Boyd, and Greinke are (in some order) the best of those 6

4:42
Brad Johnson: But since they’ll be exorbitantly priced, it’s probably better to grab one of the others.

4:43
jw: bottom hand dominant swings, forcing pitchers to go after them with high fastballs

4:43
Brad Johnson: Oh, I don’t see that as a new innovation by any means. That adjustment was implemented almost leaguewide by 2017.

4:44
Brad Johnson: We’re actually to the point where ground ball hitters are seeing an uptick in their value because pitchers are attacking the upper edge of the zone consistently.

4:44
Brad Johnson: The Dodgers are interesting in that they actually do pretty well against fly ball pitchers despite their fly ball tilt

4:44
Nathan: Which of your 2019 bold predictions do you feel best about half way through?

4:45
Brad Johnson: I think Renfroe is clearly the easy victory at this stage of the season. Beede is 12-team mixed relevant, but some people might argue with me on that one.

4:46
Brad Johnson: Similarly, I think Adam Eaton is having a lovely season, and all I hear about him is griping

4:46
Simba: Better second half – DJ Lemahieu or Jose Ramirez?

4:46
Brad Johnson:

Which?

DJLM (37.2% | 19 votes)
 
JoRam (62.7% | 32 votes)
 

Total Votes: 51
4:47
Brad Johnson: I’d also vote for JoRam. The first 10 votes believe in regression.

4:47
Luis Robert: Will i get the call this year? WIll i be any good?

4:47
Brad Johnson: I’m starting to think the answer is yes.

4:47
Brad Johnson: Not sure about goodness. Safe bet is no to that one.

4:48
Trade help: Did you mean Miller Park re: Grandal?

4:48
Brad Johnson: No, I was saying his old park wasn’t bad for his type of power

4:48
Brad Johnson: So moving the Miller is probably a small effect at best.

4:48
Brad Johnson: The ball is a huge effect on everyone

4:48
Gabe: What SP do you prefer in a keep forever league (wins,era,whip and saves) Maeda or Gausman?

4:49
Brad Johnson: The keeper element should be ignored. I like Maeda more right now. There’s always a chance Gausman figures it out some day.

4:49
Sano: Which 2 to play for the rest of the year? Sano, Nate Lowe, Vogelbach?

4:49
Brad Johnson: Sano and Vogey

4:49
Brad Johnson: I like Lowe. A lot. But I also foresee iffy playing time.

4:49
Paxton: buy sell hold

4:49
Brad Johnson: I find myself trying all 3 tbh

4:50
Brad Johnson: I have a dynasty share that I’ve tried to combine with Dylan Carlson for a stud young hitter

4:50
Brad Johnson: I like his Ks and Ws if those categories are problems for you. And I’m holding a share elsewhere.

4:51
Julio Rodriquez: What’s the shallowest keeper league in which you’re acquiring him? Am I crazy for reserving my keeper slot for him over Vidal Brujan in a 12 team league with 35 man rosters?

4:51
Brad Johnson: That might be more than a tad shallow, but you’re probably only a year early

4:52
Brad Johnson: While I suspect it doesn’t feel like a shallow league to you, you’re pretty safe to make bold decisions with your back end roster choices.

4:52
Brad Johnson: The replacement level ensures excellent Plan Bs

4:52
Mike: Berrios and Yordan or Bellinger in a dynasty roto with QS and OPS?

4:53
Brad Johnson: Bellinger

4:53
Brad Johnson: But that’s a good stab at Belli

4:53
Brad Johnson: I was just thinking about sending off Paxton, Carlson, and Blackmon for Bellinger in my league (friggin’ Eno owns him).

4:53
PJ: Is Hunter Dozier legit or should I be looking to sell high in a keep forever league?

4:54
Brad Johnson: I think he’s relatively legit, yes.

4:54
Brad Johnson: But, I’d also be trying to sell high

4:54
Brad Johnson: I’d want to at least know what’s out there for him

4:54
Broken Bats: How about this awful trade in 14 tms 5×5 keep forever no cost: Betts/Verlander/Realmuto for Tatis/Paddack/R.Chirinos.  1st place team is the one getting the top 5 hitter, top 3 SP, and top 2 C.

4:54
Brad Johnson: Eh, I can see why somebody would pay up for Tatis and Paddack even if I don’t quite agree with the decision.

4:55
Brad Johnson: That guy is likely to be happy in 2022

4:55
Brad Johnson: When maybe Betts is still roto relevant (and that’s not assured)

4:55
John Bradson: olleh!

4:55
Mark: Is Meadows’ current .292/.368./.512 in the ballpark of what we should expect going forward?

4:55
Brad Johnson: Yea, more or less

4:55
Brad Johnson: We’re at an interesting point for him though

4:56
Brad Johnson: The league has adjusted and it’s up to him to counter adjust

4:56
Brad Johnson: I think the platoon role will help

4:56
Brad Johnson: It’s easier to work on things mentally when you have predictable off days

4:56
Nathan: Is the juiced ball negating a lot of NYY’s short porch effects? Which is to say, are guys hitting the juiced ball so far that it’d be a home run even without considering how close the fences are?

4:56
Brad Johnson: Well. Yes. But also Travis d’Arnaud maybe hits 1 HR yesterday without the ball.

4:57
AC: Don’t have room for both Yordan and Ohtani in a 14 team 5 keeper league. Trade one for an elite closer? Who would you keep?

4:57
Brad Johnson: Oof. I’d trade Ohtani.

4:57
Bruce: $3 Pete Alonso or $80 Trout in Ottoneu fgpts?

4:57
Brad Johnson: Alonso

4:57
Brad Johnson: You should be able to pick up $80 Trout in the offseason for a package of jelly beans

4:58
Dennis Quaid from The Rookie: How are you feeling about Kluber/Hamels/Taillon?

4:58
Brad Johnson: I feel like they’re injured

4:58
Brad Johnson: I understand the question you’re asking, but we just have to wait and see

4:58
Brad Johnson: Should you boldly gamble your season on their return to relevance? Probably not.

4:59
Brad Johnson: Kluber, maybe

4:59
luckydude22: has any of your advice here in chat come back to bite you in real life (e.g. trading partner quotes you when rejecting an offer)

4:59
Brad Johnson: Not these chats specifically

5:00
Brad Johnson: I do get a lot of my shit thrown back at me though. Especially in my college dynasty league which has nonsense rules (biggest being that players who have yet to debut before a season cannot be rostered, Alonso, Vladito, etc are on waivers). Almost nobody will trade with me, even on small things.

5:01
Brad Johnson: I tried to trade Jose Peraza for Austin Adams and got told off…

5:01
Nathan: Wander Franco’s FV = what kind of PV return (in a forever keeper league, snake draft so no salaries)?

5:01
Brad Johnson: For example… Thor, Blackmon, and Nellie Cruz?

5:01
Brad Johnson: A lot basically.

5:02
Nick: Is Rougned Odor toast? Thinking about dropping him in my deep 20 team dynasty league for maybe potential closer (Sam Dyson or Nick Anderson). I need saves, no one wants Odor.

5:02
Brad Johnson: Possibly, but cutting him in a deep 20 teamer can’t be right.

5:02
Cam: Can you give me anyone from the Giants recent hot streak who might be kinda real? Dickerson, Slater?

5:02
Brad Johnson: I’ve long liked Dickerson as a second division starter with potential fantasy relevance.

5:03
Pie Eaton Contest: You think it’s not assured Betts will be roto relevant in his age 29 season?

5:03
Brad Johnson: That is correct

5:03
Brad Johnson: And I’d handicap him somewhere around what Jose Altuve has done this season.

5:03
Marihurt: Next SEA closer…Austin Adams??

5:04
Brad Johnson: Well yes, if he isn’t traded upon returning from the IL

5:04
Brad Johnson: Think Jerry Dipoto can sit on a reliever? Nobody wants Roenis Elias, but a contender might actually like to stash Adams in their pen

5:04
Brad Johnson: Phillies maybe?

5:05
Luciano (SFG): I am next year’s Wander Franco

5:05
Brad Johnson: Guy is sooo good

5:05
Brad Johnson: I’m really sad I traded him in DTBNL (my patreon startup dynasty league, 24-teams, 45-man rosters)

5:05
Brad Johnson: But I got Bregman with him so I can’t be too sad

5:06
Lincecum: I hate streaming Shark, but I have to. The upside when he’s on is just too high. But man is he a rollercoaster of emotion for me when he starts

5:06
Brad Johnson: Yes

5:06
Nathan: Is it time for me to quit Mahle? The K’s are so good. The HR’s … so, so bad. But the low LOB% gives me hope still!

5:06
Brad Johnson: Can try using him on the road. His home park is death

5:06
Matt: Can you explain to me the point of a “keep forever” league? Doesn’t seem like it would really be conducive to YOY variation, and lead to many dynasties.

5:07
Brad Johnson: I think the simplicity is the main attraction

5:07
Brad Johnson: When you start adding contracts or other keeper rules, valuation can quickly grow complex

5:08
Brad Johnson: Which serves to unlevel the playing field

5:08
Brad Johnson: keep forever is unlevel too, but it’s unlevel in a way where nobody can really rightfully complain about it

5:08
Brad Johnson: On that note, I need to go

5:09
Brad Johnson: Sorry for the abrupt dismissal today, see ya next week!

5:09
Kdog: Bad strategy to stack a bunch of good RPs to try to hit an innings limit when you only have 4 Ps that are trustworthy?

5:09
Brad Johnson: No, good strategy

5:09
Mark: Assuming he’s not traded does Kyle Tucker have a role with the Astros next year?

5:09
Brad Johnson: Not obviously. But if he’s as talented as they hope, he’ll force a role. Just like Alvarez this year.

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