Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 7-16-2019
by Brad Johnson
July 16, 2019
We chatted. Behold.
| 3:58 |
: We’ll get started in a few moments. |
| 4:01 |
: Brad, are you buying Tyler Beede’s newfound slider as the missing piece to make him a contributor down the stretch?
|
| 4:01 |
: There’s a lot I’m buying about Tyler Beede, but the missing piece is command. Pure and simple.
|
| 4:01 |
: And I’m not sure that’s really improved all that much lately – it’s hard to tell. You know the drill, small sample sizes and such.
|
| 4:02 |
: I’m comfortable labeling him as at least a good reliever right now with potential to also be an interesting SP. |
| 4:02 |
: Who do you like more RoS in a standard 5×5, Hiura, or Scooter?
|
| 4:02 |
: That’s a rusty looking scooter. You can’t just leave him out in the rain.
|
| 4:03 |
: Trying too hard… In any case, as of today I’d pick Hiura.
|
| 4:03 |
: If you have the choice, then chances are you can always adjust later at almost no penalty
|
| 4:03 |
: Do you think Gavin Lux will be relevant in 12-team mixed leagues this year? |
| 4:03 |
: No, not remotely. If he even gets a call up, it’s to start 3 games in September.
|
| 4:04 |
: A fresh injury to Seager could change that analysis now that Turner is waylaid.
|
| 4:04 |
: dearest and onliest brad, in a 12 team redraft QS league, would you rather have dylan cease or chris archer whose last start obviously means he is fixed, until rich hill maybe ever gets back?
|
| 4:04 |
: ick
|
| 4:04 |
: I don’t know their upcoming starts offhand.
|
| 4:05 |
: Cease seems like a better gamble right now |
| 4:05 |
: Keeper league: Need SB’s…would you trade Luis Urias for Mallex Smith? Fair?
|
| 4:05 |
: Instantly
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| 4:05 |
: 10 team, keep 4 forever points league. Would you take Devers and James Paxton for Machado and Zach Eflin?
|
| 4:06 |
: The thing about shallow keeper formats like this is that it’s almost better to ignore the keep aspect until the end of the year. The exceptions are if you have a chance to trade a bunch of guys for a Trout, Yelich, Bellinger, etc.
|
| 4:06 |
: That said, I prefer Machado as a keeper option. I do like Paxton as an upgrade to Eflin.
|
| 4:06 |
: So it looks like an even trade |
| 4:07 |
: Trying to win now in year 1 of a keep forever dynasty…I desperately need pitching. Would you move Whitley, Kirilloff, plus more for Scherzer? My bats are young and stacked so I might not have room for upcoming prospects anyway
|
| 4:07 |
: Depends on the plus more. That starting point isn’t terrible. But… you might as wait until he’s healthy. Nobody’s outbidding that pair as a baseline.
|
| 4:08 |
: Was recently offered Sale for Pete Alonso in a 12 team, keep 6 standard (about a $15 price difference to keep between the two). Is this too much to pass up?
|
| 4:08 |
: Nah, I think they’re about the same
|
| 4:08 |
: rays really gonna bench Lowe again? Is he gonna get enough playing time to matter?
|
| 4:08 |
: Definitely can’t count on it |
| 4:09 |
: They’re one of a few teams – the Dodgers and Yankees included – who at full strength can be a bit of a hassle for fantasy owners
|
| 4:09 |
: Of course, the Rays guys were supposed to be bargain assets.
|
| 4:09 |
: Any hope for Heaney tonight against Houston? The homers are killing him and that is not an optimal matchup.
|
| 4:09 |
: There’s always hope Kevin
|
| 4:09 |
: But, uh, don’t use him
|
| 4:09 |
: Do you expect Folty to be mixed-league relevant again this year? |
| 4:10 |
: I do not expect it. Nor would it surprise me. He’s fairly talented when his command is sharp.
|
| 4:10 |
: That’s not all that often.
|
| 4:10 |
: Brad–you’re playing to win for this year, and perhaps next year too. Would you rather have Bellinger for a 1.5 years, or Vlad Jr for 3.5 years?
|
| 4:10 |
: Bellinger
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| 4:10 |
: He’s one of the few guys I’d take over Vladito fwiw
|
| 4:10 |
: How do you rank Julio Urias as a dynasty asset for a rebuilding squad? Is Mike Clevinger too much to give up? |
| 4:10 |
: Yes, I like Clevinger a lot more
|
| 4:11 |
: With pitchers, you can almost ignore age if it’s under 30.
|
| 4:11 |
: They all have close to the same projected shelf life when aged 29 and younger
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| 4:11 |
: Are you buying d’Arnaud as a post-post-post-post-post-hype sleeper?
|
| 4:11 |
: Not really
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| 4:12 |
: The Rays do have that midas touch. However, if you watch video of his three home runs yesterday, they were ball and park fueled lazy fly balls. |
| 4:12 |
: He took defensive swings on cookie pitches and got lucky three times to oppo-field.
|
| 4:13 |
: but… if your format is sufficiently deep, pick him up then immediately sell him
|
| 4:13 |
: I’ll brb
|
| 4:15 |
: Biggio or Hiura ROS?
|
| 4:15 |
: I do love Biggio…
|
| 4:15 |
: I need to investigate this one |
| 4:16 |
: I’m going to say Biggio
|
| 4:16 |
: Hiura is probably the better player, but he has three things against him – lineup role, strikeouts, and Travis Shaw
|
| 4:17 |
: Biggio could also run afoul of all three of those
|
| 4:17 |
: yes, even Shaw, although that’s mostly a joke. He’s a trade candidate and the Blue Jays have something the Brewers might want (Stroman).
|
| 4:18 |
: How much of a premium do you add to SBs over HRs in this environment. For example, all other stats hypothetically being equal, would you rather have a guy 20HR/0SB, or 5HR/10SB ?
|
| 4:18 |
: At that performance level, I’ll take the SBs
|
| 4:18 |
: Partially because anybody projected to hit 5 HR could actually hit 15 ROS
|
| 4:19 |
: Juiced ball is really warping the way fantasy is played
|
| 4:19 |
: Does Howie Kendrick deserve more playing time, or is he just past his prime and a total bench bat?
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| 4:20 |
: He’s still a very good hitter. The issue is two-fold. He’s seemingly easily injured so a rest-heavy usage pattern is ideal. And because the Nats have redundancy at his positions, they’re going to use those guys too. I like Dozier for a big second half fwiw which could push Kendrick into a dusty corner of the bench if the Zim/Adams platoon also performs.
|
| 4:20 |
: Machado V Jose Ramirez ROS?
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| 4:21 |
: Oof, I want to quintuple down on Ramirez, but I’ll go with Machado
|
| 4:21 |
: Since Biggio won vs. Hiura….who wins the next match up?
|
| 4:21 |
:
Biggio vs Hiura?
Biggio (28.9% | 22 votes)
Hiura (71.0% | 54 votes)
Total Votes: 76
|
| 4:21 |
: Who closes in SF after the trade deadline, I’m stashing Moronta….
|
| 4:22 |
: I kinda doubt they’ll offload all four of their vets
|
| 4:22 |
: so… whichever gets left behind
|
| 4:22 |
: The issue is they’re going to squeeze as much as they can from Smith so they’ll want to keep resources on hand to improve that offer.
|
| 4:23 |
: Don’t want to trade Melancon or Dyson for a lotto ticket only to find out he would have netted them a blue chipper if attached to Smith
|
| 4:23 |
: And Smith will probably be dealt close to the last minute, leaving little time to execute the secondary stuff.
|
| 4:24 |
: All that said, Moronta is the best bet among the non-oldies.
|
| 4:24 |
: Will MLB go back to ball from 2018 next season or does the madness continue?
|
| 4:25 |
: That’s not really how it works. Apparently, the 2019 ball is an unhappy side effect of better quality control.
|
| 4:25 |
: Next MLB needs to adjust the process so that there’s higher quality AND a less juicy baseball
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| 4:25 |
: There’s a 6-12 month lag between production and usage so this might have been fixed by now.
|
| 4:26 |
: Who gets alllll thoooose saves in KC after Kennedy is gone
|
| 4:26 |
: Blech
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| 4:26 |
: Don’t do it
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| 4:26 |
: Why do the Dodgers have Will Smith in AAA? He is the best C on their roster, right?
|
| 4:27 |
: Could be true. Isn’t certainly true though. Meanwhile, Martin and Barnes are good enough. I think Smith is probably their playoff catcher, but they lose little value in managing their resources such that they can keep all 3
|
| 4:27 |
: Would you rather have Lourdes Gurriel Jr or Ramon Laureano ROS?…need to drop a bat that qualifies as an outfielder.
|
| 4:27 |
: Really hard to drop either of them right now.
|
| 4:27 |
: I think Gurriel would be my cut of the two
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| 4:28 |
: What non-traditional stat do you hope will be more regularly accounted for in fantasy baseball? My vote is for HR/9
|
| 4:28 |
: Is that non-traditional? I use it very heavily in DFS and for ottoneu.
|
| 4:28 |
: Schwarber is absolutely scalding the ball this year (98th percentile in Statcast exit velocity and hard hit %) while posting the highest contact rate of his career. Has he taken a step forward or is he the same career .229/.336/.471 hitter?
|
| 4:28 |
: I think he’s very modestly improved
|
| 4:29 |
: Kind of a linear type of growth rather than the usual chunky breakouts/declines we usually see in baseball
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| 4:30 |
: Side note, this is what I hate about all baseball video games. Nearly every player improves/declines along a predictable aging curve. Of the games I’ve played only OOTP does a decent job mimicking reality.
|
| 4:30 |
: Thoughts on Tommy Edman? He had 30sb in the minors last season, can play multiple positions…is he better than Wong?
|
| 4:30 |
: I like him more than Wong
|
| 4:31 |
: Biggio vs. Mercado
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| 4:32 |
:
Biggio vs Mercado
Biggio (56.8% | 29 votes)
Mercado (43.1% | 22 votes)
Total Votes: 51
|
| 4:32 |
: Are the Dodgers changing baseball with their approach to hitting?…it is obvious in their follow thru
|
| 4:32 |
: Care to elaborate?
|
| 4:32 |
: I mostly only get Dodger highlights. I’m asleep before their games even begin.
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| 4:33 |
: I don’t care what the projections say, I’m going to sell Kershaw right now while his name + decent ERA bring me max return
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| 4:33 |
: That’s fine.
|
| 4:33 |
: Why did the Cubs trade for a catcher? I’m more than capable of starting or is this a sign I’m going to be traded for bullpen help? If I got to a team where I’m a starter, I’m a top 10 catcher right?
|
| 4:34 |
: Can never have too many catchers. Maldonado is widely regarded as a defensive savant whereas Caratini is… not.
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| 4:34 |
: I also don’t see him as an above average hitter
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| 4:34 |
: So, in brief, the Cubs have no reason to not improve their depth with Maldonado.
|
| 4:35 |
: $8 Adell and $2 Clint Frazier for $5 Ketel Marte and $5 Meadows sound fair in Ottoneu FGPts? Adell owner competitive and needs MI, Marte owner looking to next year.
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| 4:35 |
: Not close. $8 Adell is a cut if I’m playing it straight (which I wouldn’t – I’d be trying to sell his name brand)
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| 4:36 |
: Frazier is par value at $4 to keep
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| 4:36 |
: Ketel and Meadows might have a surplus of over $40
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| 4:36 |
: Trying to make a big push as a seller, and looking to help the guy in 2nd who won’t catch 1st, but needs to hedge against 3 guys right behind him. Looking to acquire Hanniger and Glasnow. Both super cheap ($4), but trying to focus on potentially buying 2 years of TJ recovery (salary double every 3 years, +$2 otherwise). Assuming the haul I’m giving him in commensurate, how do you feel about those two as long-term dynasty acquisitions?
|
| 4:37 |
: They’re…fine.
|
| 4:37 |
: I’m not overly excited about it. They’re current core performers rather than long term building blocks
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| 4:37 |
: Without knowing what you’re giving, I can’t add more.
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| 4:38 |
: If it’s just a wad of old guys, go for it.
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| 4:38 |
: Where do you think Devers goes in drafts in 2020?
|
| 4:38 |
: That’s going to be heavily dependent on how he finishes out 2019
|
| 4:38 |
: There are some fluky-looking aspects to his performance.
|
| 4:38 |
: Do you like Garver or DArnaud over Posey Ros?
|
| 4:39 |
: Not really. Maybe Garver if he need HR
|
| 4:39 |
: Is Grandal benefiting more from the more hitter friendly home park or the juiced ball?
|
| 4:39 |
: The ball
|
| 4:39 |
: Chavez Ravine is great for HR of the type he hits (high drives)
|
| 4:40 |
: got that tidbit from Eno
|
| 4:40 |
: Likelihood that Mejia will eventually become an above average offensive catcher?
|
| 4:40 |
: 40-60%
|
| 4:40 |
: Which is pretty high all things considered.
|
| 4:40 |
: How would you rank Stro, Thor, Wheeler, Bum, Boyd, and Greinke for teams to acquire at the deadline?
|
| 4:41 |
: Not sure why I clicked this, it’s complicated
|
| 4:41 |
: There are two main dimensions to consider – quality of the pitcher and perceived cost.
|
| 4:41 |
: You’re going to have to overpay to land Thor, Boyd, or Greinke
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| 4:41 |
: Alternatively, Stroman and Bum are definitely going to be traded. Wheeler is pretty likely to go too.
|
| 4:42 |
: Thor, Boyd, and Greinke are (in some order) the best of those 6
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| 4:42 |
: But since they’ll be exorbitantly priced, it’s probably better to grab one of the others.
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| 4:43 |
: bottom hand dominant swings, forcing pitchers to go after them with high fastballs
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| 4:43 |
: Oh, I don’t see that as a new innovation by any means. That adjustment was implemented almost leaguewide by 2017.
|
| 4:44 |
: We’re actually to the point where ground ball hitters are seeing an uptick in their value because pitchers are attacking the upper edge of the zone consistently.
|
| 4:44 |
: The Dodgers are interesting in that they actually do pretty well against fly ball pitchers despite their fly ball tilt
|
| 4:44 |
: Which of your 2019 bold predictions do you feel best about half way through?
|
| 4:45 |
: I think Renfroe is clearly the easy victory at this stage of the season. Beede is 12-team mixed relevant, but some people might argue with me on that one.
|
| 4:46 |
: Similarly, I think Adam Eaton is having a lovely season, and all I hear about him is griping
|
| 4:46 |
: Better second half – DJ Lemahieu or Jose Ramirez?
|
| 4:46 |
:
Which?
DJLM (37.2% | 19 votes)
JoRam (62.7% | 32 votes)
Total Votes: 51
|
| 4:47 |
: I’d also vote for JoRam. The first 10 votes believe in regression.
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| 4:47 |
: Will i get the call this year? WIll i be any good?
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| 4:47 |
: I’m starting to think the answer is yes.
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| 4:47 |
: Not sure about goodness. Safe bet is no to that one.
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| 4:48 |
: Did you mean Miller Park re: Grandal?
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| 4:48 |
: No, I was saying his old park wasn’t bad for his type of power
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| 4:48 |
: So moving the Miller is probably a small effect at best.
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| 4:48 |
: The ball is a huge effect on everyone
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| 4:48 |
: What SP do you prefer in a keep forever league (wins,era,whip and saves) Maeda or Gausman?
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| 4:49 |
: The keeper element should be ignored. I like Maeda more right now. There’s always a chance Gausman figures it out some day.
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| 4:49 |
: Which 2 to play for the rest of the year? Sano, Nate Lowe, Vogelbach?
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| 4:49 |
: Sano and Vogey
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| 4:49 |
: I like Lowe. A lot. But I also foresee iffy playing time.
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| 4:49 |
: buy sell hold
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| 4:49 |
: I find myself trying all 3 tbh
|
| 4:50 |
: I have a dynasty share that I’ve tried to combine with Dylan Carlson for a stud young hitter
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| 4:50 |
: I like his Ks and Ws if those categories are problems for you. And I’m holding a share elsewhere.
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| 4:51 |
: What’s the shallowest keeper league in which you’re acquiring him? Am I crazy for reserving my keeper slot for him over Vidal Brujan in a 12 team league with 35 man rosters?
|
| 4:51 |
: That might be more than a tad shallow, but you’re probably only a year early
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| 4:52 |
: While I suspect it doesn’t feel like a shallow league to you, you’re pretty safe to make bold decisions with your back end roster choices.
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| 4:52 |
: The replacement level ensures excellent Plan Bs
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| 4:52 |
: Berrios and Yordan or Bellinger in a dynasty roto with QS and OPS?
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| 4:53 |
: Bellinger
|
| 4:53 |
: But that’s a good stab at Belli
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| 4:53 |
: I was just thinking about sending off Paxton, Carlson, and Blackmon for Bellinger in my league (friggin’ Eno owns him).
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| 4:53 |
: Is Hunter Dozier legit or should I be looking to sell high in a keep forever league?
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| 4:54 |
: I think he’s relatively legit, yes.
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| 4:54 |
: But, I’d also be trying to sell high
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| 4:54 |
: I’d want to at least know what’s out there for him
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| 4:54 |
: How about this awful trade in 14 tms 5×5 keep forever no cost: Betts/Verlander/Realmuto for Tatis/Paddack/R.Chirinos. 1st place team is the one getting the top 5 hitter, top 3 SP, and top 2 C.
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| 4:54 |
: Eh, I can see why somebody would pay up for Tatis and Paddack even if I don’t quite agree with the decision.
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| 4:55 |
: That guy is likely to be happy in 2022
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| 4:55 |
: When maybe Betts is still roto relevant (and that’s not assured)
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| 4:55 |
: olleh!
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| 4:55 |
: Is Meadows’ current .292/.368./.512 in the ballpark of what we should expect going forward?
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| 4:55 |
: Yea, more or less
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| 4:55 |
: We’re at an interesting point for him though
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| 4:56 |
: The league has adjusted and it’s up to him to counter adjust
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| 4:56 |
: I think the platoon role will help
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| 4:56 |
: It’s easier to work on things mentally when you have predictable off days
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| 4:56 |
: Is the juiced ball negating a lot of NYY’s short porch effects? Which is to say, are guys hitting the juiced ball so far that it’d be a home run even without considering how close the fences are?
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| 4:56 |
: Well. Yes. But also Travis d’Arnaud maybe hits 1 HR yesterday without the ball.
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| 4:57 |
: Don’t have room for both Yordan and Ohtani in a 14 team 5 keeper league. Trade one for an elite closer? Who would you keep?
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| 4:57 |
: Oof. I’d trade Ohtani.
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| 4:57 |
: $3 Pete Alonso or $80 Trout in Ottoneu fgpts?
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| 4:57 |
: Alonso
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| 4:57 |
: You should be able to pick up $80 Trout in the offseason for a package of jelly beans
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| 4:58 |
: How are you feeling about Kluber/Hamels/Taillon?
|
| 4:58 |
: I feel like they’re injured
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| 4:58 |
: I understand the question you’re asking, but we just have to wait and see
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| 4:58 |
: Should you boldly gamble your season on their return to relevance? Probably not.
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| 4:59 |
: Kluber, maybe
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| 4:59 |
: has any of your advice here in chat come back to bite you in real life (e.g. trading partner quotes you when rejecting an offer)
|
| 4:59 |
: Not these chats specifically
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| 5:00 |
: I do get a lot of my shit thrown back at me though. Especially in my college dynasty league which has nonsense rules (biggest being that players who have yet to debut before a season cannot be rostered, Alonso, Vladito, etc are on waivers). Almost nobody will trade with me, even on small things.
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| 5:01 |
: I tried to trade Jose Peraza for Austin Adams and got told off…
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| 5:01 |
: Wander Franco’s FV = what kind of PV return (in a forever keeper league, snake draft so no salaries)?
|
| 5:01 |
: For example… Thor, Blackmon, and Nellie Cruz?
|
| 5:01 |
: A lot basically.
|
| 5:02 |
: Is Rougned Odor toast? Thinking about dropping him in my deep 20 team dynasty league for maybe potential closer (Sam Dyson or Nick Anderson). I need saves, no one wants Odor.
|
| 5:02 |
: Possibly, but cutting him in a deep 20 teamer can’t be right.
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| 5:02 |
: Can you give me anyone from the Giants recent hot streak who might be kinda real? Dickerson, Slater?
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| 5:02 |
: I’ve long liked Dickerson as a second division starter with potential fantasy relevance.
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| 5:03 |
: You think it’s not assured Betts will be roto relevant in his age 29 season?
|
| 5:03 |
: That is correct
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| 5:03 |
: And I’d handicap him somewhere around what Jose Altuve has done this season.
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| 5:03 |
: Next SEA closer…Austin Adams??
|
| 5:04 |
: Well yes, if he isn’t traded upon returning from the IL
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| 5:04 |
: Think Jerry Dipoto can sit on a reliever? Nobody wants Roenis Elias, but a contender might actually like to stash Adams in their pen
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| 5:04 |
: Phillies maybe?
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| 5:05 |
: I am next year’s Wander Franco
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| 5:05 |
: Guy is sooo good
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| 5:05 |
: I’m really sad I traded him in DTBNL (my patreon startup dynasty league, 24-teams, 45-man rosters)
|
| 5:05 |
: But I got Bregman with him so I can’t be too sad
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| 5:06 |
: I hate streaming Shark, but I have to. The upside when he’s on is just too high. But man is he a rollercoaster of emotion for me when he starts
|
| 5:06 |
: Yes
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| 5:06 |
: Is it time for me to quit Mahle? The K’s are so good. The HR’s … so, so bad. But the low LOB% gives me hope still!
|
| 5:06 |
: Can try using him on the road. His home park is death
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| 5:06 |
: Can you explain to me the point of a “keep forever” league? Doesn’t seem like it would really be conducive to YOY variation, and lead to many dynasties.
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| 5:07 |
: I think the simplicity is the main attraction
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| 5:07 |
: When you start adding contracts or other keeper rules, valuation can quickly grow complex
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| 5:08 |
: Which serves to unlevel the playing field
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| 5:08 |
: keep forever is unlevel too, but it’s unlevel in a way where nobody can really rightfully complain about it
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| 5:08 |
: On that note, I need to go
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| 5:09 |
: Sorry for the abrupt dismissal today, see ya next week!
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| 5:09 |
: Bad strategy to stack a bunch of good RPs to try to hit an innings limit when you only have 4 Ps that are trustworthy?
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| 5:09 |
: No, good strategy
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| 5:09 |
: Assuming he’s not traded does Kyle Tucker have a role with the Astros next year?
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| 5:09 |
: Not obviously. But if he’s as talented as they hope, he’ll force a role. Just like Alvarez this year.
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