Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 5/8/2018
Here’s today’s chat transcript.
3:55 |
: In a 10-team mixed keeper total bases and OBP league, would you sooner roster Kemp, Leonys Martin, Piscotty, Soler, or Franchy over Dahl? Thanks!
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3:56 |
: Dahl isn’t playing very consistently which is an issue in 10-team. You need your guys active unless you’re using them as a platoon bat
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3:56 |
: Those options aren’t very enticing. I think I like Martin most. Or better yet, offer Dahl for Dex Fowler.
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3:57 |
: At what point do I switch my Senzel hold with Vlad Jr?
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3:57 |
: Now? Depends on the rules.
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3:57 |
: Oh, I should probably say hello to everyone
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3:57 |
: Hi everyone
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3:57 |
: It’s chat time.
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3:57 |
: If you’re looking for 2018 production, Senzel remains the guy to own
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3:58 |
: If you’re looking for a prime keeper, that’s Vladito
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3:58 |
: I wouldn’t expect much from him – if anything – this season
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3:58 |
: Would you be comfortable giving Albies for Ohtani in a 12 team h2h if you had Kinsler / Villar to rotate at 2B? Thanks!
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3:58 |
: Not really. I assume this isn’t Yahoo and you can at least bat Ohtani?
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3:59 |
: I do like Ohtani, but your backups are brittle assets
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3:59 |
: Blackmon or Machado and Wade Davis in a 12 team roto? Thanks!
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3:59 |
: As much as I love Blackmon, probably have to take the closer with a comparably talented hitter
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4:00 |
: Depends on the opportunity cost of that extra roster spot
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4:00 |
: Traded Tanaka and Reynaldo to get JD Martinez. How did I do?
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4:00 |
: HEIST
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4:00 |
: Hi Brad. In a league with both avg & obp would you drop Nunez for any of Carpenter, Kingery or Candelario? Thank you.
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4:00 |
: I prefer Carpenter
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4:00 |
: What should I do with Stroman? Is he worth holding on t? Should I start him today? I want to believe.
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4:00 |
: I’m stashing him for now
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4:00 |
: What tier of SP would you be comfortable trading Tatis for in a 14 team dynasty points league? Keuchel too little of a return? Thanks!
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4:01 |
: Ugh, I answered two of yours already.
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4:01 |
: !!!
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4:01 |
: I hate the idea of trading Tatis for a pitcher…
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4:02 |
: that said, if you need it, then Keuchel’s asset class is probably about correct for a relatively shallow dynasty
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4:02 |
: Keuchel specifically has some issues in his profile
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4:02 |
: BRAD!!! you da man. You starting Castillo today in a QS league? he looked better in his last outing and was a bit unlucky early on. Velo seems to be ticking back…
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4:02 |
: I’m not, but I am considering him for DFS GPPs
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4:03 |
: One of these days, the strikeouts and run prevention are going to be simultaneous
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4:03 |
: should i begin to worry about anthony rizzo
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4:03 |
: Nah. I had a reader present some data showing reduced pull power going back to the middle of last season, but I’m not really seeing any reason not to bank on regression
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4:04 |
: How’d I do in a H2H keep forever…gave up Altuve/Myers/Mejia for Haniger/ C Seager/ Juan Soto?! Please tell me that Soto bill be a beast as his line shows this season.
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4:04 |
: Soto is looking pretty exceptional. I managed to trade Willie Calhoun to clear a NA spot for him in a shallow league
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4:05 |
: As for your trade, that’s still quite the price to pay
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4:05 |
: Either side could win in the end
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4:05 |
: There’s a lot going on
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4:05 |
: Who’s your pick for Osuna’s fill-in in TOR?
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4:05 |
: I gotta be honest, I’m a little underprepared for this one.
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4:06 |
: It was such a rock steady situation
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4:07 |
: Literally all of their relievers are candidates. Oh, Tepera, Barnes, Axford, and Clippard
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4:07 |
: Probably not Loup or Petricka
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4:07 |
: That’s everyone, right?
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4:07 |
: Consider this my expert analysis on the topic – stash whoever you like best and hope you wind up with the winning ticket
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4:08 |
: I was offered EE for Story in a 6×6 OBP league. After Seager’s injury my only other SS option is Peraza. I have Abreu and Belt for 1b options. Still worth it?
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4:08 |
: No
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4:08 |
: Story is better than EE anyway. Unless you really need to redistribute SB to HR
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4:09 |
: Greg Polanco, Manny Margot, Ian Happ, and Matt Davidson were all dropped this week. Who of that group would you prioritize? (5×5 OBP)
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4:09 |
: Polanco then Margot
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4:09 |
: AL only 10 tm dynasty. In win now mode, should I trade Bo Bichette, Domingo German, Mallex Smith, Greg Bird and Gleyber Torres for Semien, Mookie and some spare RPs for holds?
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4:09 |
: Yes
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4:09 |
: Basically any price for Betts is acceptable as long as you’re still fielding a competitive roster
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4:10 |
: Those are all good but expendable parts.
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4:10 |
: I had Altuve, Nunez, and Chris Taylor as my main sources of steals. They have 3 steals collectively. Am I screwed?
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4:10 |
: I have Altuve and Taylor in a couple leagues. It’s frustrating.
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4:10 |
: I’m not sure Taylor is going to do much, but Altuve should start running at some point.
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4:10 |
: Better keeper league stash: Eloy or Tatis Jr.?
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4:11 |
: Tatis is the better talent, Eloy is closer.
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4:11 |
: And they’re similar enough that preferring Eloy’s proximity is fine
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4:11 |
: Someone offered me Donaldson and Devers for Lowrie. Im pretty happy.
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4:11 |
: Ha. I love Lowrie, but I’m not offering either of them alone… Beware the veto
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4:12 |
: How would you rank the following as dynasty stash based on future potential….Dustin Fowler, Luis Urias, Jalen Beeks, Justus Sheffield. Thanks!
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4:12 |
: Just take Urias, way way better than the rest
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4:12 |
: With Altuve’s lack of power and no SBs to start the season, does it make sense to try and see if I can trade him for another elite player since I have JoRam to fill in at 2B?
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4:12 |
: It’s fine to shop, but you almost have to trick the other owner into coming up with the idea to target Altuve
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4:13 |
: Then you talk up how dumb it would be to sell low
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4:13 |
: And if you’re lucky, they’ll eventually buy at full price
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4:13 |
: If you go into it saying you’re shopping Altuve, you’re going to get offered Jed Lowrie.
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4:14 |
: Any reason to hang on to Willie Calhoun as a stash while Senzel is still out there?
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4:14 |
: Senzel is better
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4:14 |
: Jack Flaherty or Nick Kingham who pitches more MLB innings in 2018?
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4:14 |
: Flaherty, I assume
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4:14 |
: He’s better
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4:14 |
: 10 tm keep 10 JD & Verlander or Devers Torres Manaea
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4:14 |
: Old guys side
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4:15 |
: In a league with a 1500 inning cap, my offense is real solid, but i’m in dead last in ERA and WHIP, and in a sizable hole. My closers aren’t great and are hurting my ratios, and my starters are Clevinger, Greinke, R. Lopez, Mikolas, Bumgarner on DL, A. Sanchez, we field 9 P spots and have a relatively short bench. How do I come back from this? Do I run out a bunch of top middle relievers like Ottavino and C. Edwards, and and drop guys like Sanchez? Should I simply not start a lot of my starters aside from prime match ups?
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4:15 |
: This is a tough situation, but you can recover over the next 4+ months
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4:16 |
: You’re playing for middle of the pack with the ratios now. Diligent maintenance of your roster should get you there as other non-contenders fade.
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4:16 |
: You need to get the most out of your strengths
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4:17 |
: Since your ratios are busted, you need to outright win SV, K, and do well in W – that’s hard combination to pull off
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4:17 |
: Sweeping hitting stats is kinda necessary too.
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4:18 |
: It doesn’t hurt to squeeze in some of those relievers
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4:18 |
: But you need to somehow still pick up wins
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4:18 |
: Good luck!
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4:19 |
: Why does Gregory Polanco get so much respect? When are we all going to admit that he is what he is — a .250-.260 guy with 22-HR power? I can name 20 guys under 50% owned that can do that.
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4:19 |
: It’s the physical profile – kind of like Yasiel Puig
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4:19 |
: All it takes is a single light bulb to go off for him to turn into a monster
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4:20 |
: Winning a fantasy league is at least partially a function of getting more lucky studs than your rivals.
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4:20 |
: With a Polanco or Puig, the path is so obvious
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4:20 |
: It’s less apparent for a guy like Lowrie.
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4:20 |
: What’s the deal with Shark? Velocity way down… is he hurt still? Worth holding in 12 / 14 team leagues? Thanks!
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4:20 |
: Probably a hold in 14 team
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4:21 |
: You can cut him loose in 12 team if you see something better
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4:21 |
: I don’t have any insight beyond what you noted
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4:21 |
: He seems hurt
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4:21 |
: Who turns it around first from my struggling outfield? Ian Happ or Dex Fowler?
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4:21 |
: Fowler
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4:22 |
: Want to drop one of Kingham, Caleb Smith, Soroka to enter the Toronto closer sweepstakes. Is ti worth it/which one do I drop?
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4:22 |
: Not sure of worth, but they’re all cuttable depending on league depth
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4:22 |
: Better stash for this year and next…Raimel or O’Neil?
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4:22 |
: I think it’s O’Neill
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4:22 |
: The profile just has so much more utility
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4:23 |
: Think of Tapia as a higher floor option, although I don’t know that he’ll ever crack the lineup
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4:23 |
: He’s been a prospect since the Rockies had Brad Hawpe, right?
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4:23 |
: Feels like it.
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4:23 |
: O’Neill has an early-career Springer-like profile
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4:23 |
: Archer and Brantley or Thor in a 12 team h2h? Thanks!
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4:24 |
: Thor
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4:24 |
: Hearing mixed opinions about Donladson’s value going forward given the shoulder. Do you have any read on this situation?
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4:24 |
: It’s a shitty situation to get stuck in
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4:24 |
: If I own him, I’m saying it’s fine
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4:24 |
: If I’m the buyer, I’m asking for a very steep discount
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4:25 |
: I don’t have insight into the particular injury, but I did sell my dynasty share last year over injury concerns.
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4:25 |
: Was the major piece of a package for Betts (who I foolishly turned into Jose Altuve, Beltre, and Alonso over the winter)
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4:26 |
: Better way to rebuild in a keeper if you are falling out of contention. Trade for an injured star (i.e. C Seager), just over pay for a star if you can with pieces you don’t necessarily need/won’t keep, or trying to build through top rated prospects?
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4:26 |
: I go for the stars and injured studs
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4:26 |
: Prospects are always overpriced in my leagues
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4:26 |
: There’s always a facsimile of the stud prospect du jour one layer deeper.
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4:27 |
: As I mentioned earlier, I traded Willie Calhoun last week out of my NA slot (Yahoo) then immediately replaced him with Juan Soto. Can rinse and repeat in a month.
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4:27 |
: I need steals and saves. Is Machado/Cano for Trea Turner/Doolittle fair in a shallow ten team roto?
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4:28 |
: Sounds like you need my column Saves and Steals on Rotoworld. Mid-day every Wednesday 🙂
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4:28 |
: Swap seems viable if you have sufficient AVG, HR, and run production elsewhere.
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4:28 |
: Shallow formats throw “value” out the window
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4:29 |
: You just have to take the stats you need and hope you aren’t hemorrhaging too much value in the process. Since there’s so much good stuff on the wire, even losing a trade badly isn’t a problem so long as you didn’t help your rival too much
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4:29 |
: thinking of offering viscaino for schwarber. I have W. Davis, Allen and Ziegler for saves, but would like the HRs. What do you think? Thanks in advance!
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4:30 |
: Do it. That’s great value for Viz
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4:30 |
: Player A: .271/.347/.518 6 HRs / 3 SBs (23 y 8 m old). Player B: .263/.359/.509 6 HRs / 4 SBs (22 y 11 m old). Player A is Franchy Cordero. Player B is Yoan Moncada. The lack of Franchy respect is crazy.
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4:30 |
: Or put another way, the Moncada overrespect is nuts
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4:31 |
: So I had somebody offer me Moncada for Schoop, Kepler, and Taillon in a 20-team league with weird rules
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4:31 |
: I concluded Schoop is the better long term asset. Tried to counter with Kepler, Fisher, and Winker but it didn’t fly
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4:31 |
: Is Matt Carpenter broken, unlucky, or unlucky and broken?
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4:31 |
: More unlucky than anything
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4:31 |
: Probably needs a minor adjustment
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4:32 |
: Peripherals look fine-ish
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4:32 |
: Is it worth dropping Byron Buxton for Franchy Cordero or Josh Reddick? Cordero has upside and Reddick has beefy contact rates. Buxton? Apparently has migranes, a busted toe and a good glove…
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4:32 |
: That’s a bold drop. I feel like you could find a trade involving Buxton
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4:33 |
: Any idea when Urias might be up in San Diego?
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4:33 |
: Shortstop
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4:33 |
: oh, I read “where”
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4:33 |
: And I thought it was a silly question
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4:33 |
: Anywhere from right after super-2 deadline to late April 2019
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4:33 |
: How optimistic are you on Greg Bird once he returns? Is he worthy of a bench spot if my DL spots are filled if he’d be replacing someone like Mancini, Choo or Carlos Santana on my roster?
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4:34 |
: Go ahead and replace Mancini
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4:34 |
: He’s bland
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4:34 |
: Maybe Bird doesn’t hit, but he’s such a trendy name that you could massively profit from just one hot week
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4:34 |
: Do you think Junis has any back end SP value ROS in 12 team?
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4:34 |
: Definitely above that at this point
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4:34 |
: How do I get a notification sent to my phone when Senzel gets called up
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4:34 |
: Rotoworld probably pushes their news blurbs
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4:35 |
: RotoBaller might too
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4:35 |
: Ken Jansen for Bumgarner? For Darvish? I’ve plenty of relievers and need pitching, even if that means waiting it out on the DL.
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4:35 |
: I’d pass on Darvish for now. I’m… worried
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4:35 |
: Looks fine for bumbum
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4:35 |
: Do you think we will see Odubel stealing bases again? Is he slowing down, or is it just his inefficiency on the basepaths and credible slugging has taken away his green light?
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4:35 |
: No
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4:35 |
: The latter scenario
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4:36 |
: He’s just not somebody who should steal bases.
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4:36 |
: He might take 10 over a full season if he catches a matchup he likes
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4:36 |
: I never know what to make of Michael Brantley. Is he valuable down the line in anything other than AVG?
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4:36 |
: Sure, he’s a 5 category asset
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4:36 |
: There is value in any player who has average or better production in every category
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4:37 |
: Thoughts on Kevin Pillar? xstats says he’s killing it but it looks like it’s all because of an increased line drive rate? Is that sustainable?
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4:37 |
: I’ve been burned on Pillar before. I need to remember he starts hot, roster him, then sell high
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4:37 |
: No expectation of sustained performance.
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4:37 |
: Jose Martinez + Mike Soroka for JD Martinez in a OBP dynasty league. What side you prefer now and going forward?
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4:37 |
: JDM JDM JDM
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4:38 |
: Was feeling bold traded Cole($24) Treinen($11) Meadows($3) for Kershaw($31) and Hand($6) in a 16 team dynasty. Ultimate sell high on Cole? Feeling slightly less confidant this morning tho I have extremely deep pitching so I think I will be fine provided Kershaw isn’t out for an extended amount of time.
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4:38 |
: Looks pretty tasty to me, but there’s definitely risk that you traded a top 5-10 SP for the tail end of a HoF career
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4:38 |
: We’re not really there yet (on either end), but it’s a possible outcome
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4:39 |
: Bregman and/or Dozier buy lows?
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4:39 |
: Dozier is performing better than usual…
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4:39 |
: He’s usually borderline unplayable until June/July
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4:39 |
: Buy low on both if such an option is available
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4:40 |
: Does Vlad Jr come up this season? If so, when and how much FAAB to throw at him in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league? We start out with 100 units of FAAB.
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4:40 |
: I don’t think we’ll see him, but he could be used as a reinforcement if the Jays remain in contention
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4:40 |
: They’ll need to be bold to keep pace in the AL East
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4:41 |
: no offense to these trade offers but WOW. archer/Bradley for thor??? was that offered? click accept IMMEDIATELY. i hate hate hate vetoes but Donaldson and devers for lowrie is vetoable. maybe the worst trade I’ve ever seen
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4:41 |
: haha
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4:41 |
: The second one was especially egregious
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4:42 |
: That might be a rare time that I wouldn’t carry out my standing threat to immediately quit any league that vetoes one of my trades
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4:42 |
: Gotta know going in that it’s a risk
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4:42 |
: It’s kinda funny how the most lopsided trades are offered to YOU
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4:43 |
: Like when I get shit for fleecing somebody, it’s usually an unsolicited idea I insta-accepted.
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4:43 |
: who should I count on to replace Kyle’s Brother? Andrelton or Gleyber?
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4:43 |
: Both are quite excellent replacements
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4:43 |
: You want young upside or steady steady steady
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4:43 |
: just traded Colome for an Osuna stash…how’d I do?
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4:43 |
: We’ll see
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4:44 |
: At least you don’t have Colome torpedoing your rates
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4:44 |
: King Felix or Drew Pomeranz, rest of season, who would you rather trot out every 5th day?
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4:44 |
: Pomeranz
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4:44 |
: There’s a chance he rebounds
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4:44 |
: Poor Felix was dethroned years ago
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4:44 |
: Keeper league….hold on with Willie Calhoun? I bet also on Yordan Alvarez, Corbin Burnes, Soto and Robles. You think I ve some talent here? Woul YouTube please rank theese youngster?
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4:45 |
: This question kinda fell apart. I need to go on YouTube?
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4:45 |
: Or they need to come here?
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4:45 |
: I’m confused. I will say I like Soto the most following by Robles, Calhoun and the other pair(distantly)
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4:45 |
: Should I be Domingo Santana after his non-terrible week? Sell for 50 cents if I can?
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4:46 |
: I would love to be Domingo Santana
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4:46 |
: That’s a personal dream of mine. To wake up one day and discover I’m actually Domingo Santana
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4:46 |
: I’d hang on
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4:46 |
: He’s poor man’s George Springer when he’s rolling
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4:47 |
: and Thames is gone for awhile
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4:47 |
: Worried at all with Paul Goldschimdt? Very unlike Goldy thus far.
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4:47 |
: Yes. I said going into the season that I thought he would transcend the humidor.
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4:47 |
: I’ve seen enough to say I was wrong
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4:48 |
: I think he’ll be a good fantasy asset RoS, but not a first or second round talent
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4:48 |
: Everyone wants my Dee Gordon in a 12 team roto, keep 5 forever. He was the 6th rated player on ESPN Player Rater last year, and is 7th this year… We switch from AVG to OPS next year. What type of OF should I be looking for in return? JDM, Springer, Judge? Or is that aiming too high… Thanks!
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4:48 |
: Not aiming too high
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4:48 |
: If everybody wants a guy, hold him hostage
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4:48 |
: sell or hold Giles? is he even the closer down in HOU?
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4:48 |
: hold
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4:48 |
: He’s lost the Houston CL job like 3 times since he’s arrived there
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4:49 |
: He’s always been back (and dominating) within a month
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4:49 |
: Just seems like he gets these one month slumps
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4:49 |
: Pivetta, Lucchesi, or Cahill?
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4:49 |
: Interesting batch of arms.
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4:49 |
: Cahill until he gets tired
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4:49 |
: But they’re all 12-team playable
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4:50 |
: Positions aside, in a counting stats points league, Morales or Healy?
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4:50 |
: Easy Healy. Pretty sure Morales is playing towards a DFA. They have better hitters who need DH time like Donaldson
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4:50 |
: With Chris Taylor on the verge of picking up SS eligibility, thinking about dealing Clevinger for him to add another bat and lineup flexibility. Good value for Clev, especially since I have a lot of SP’s in that tier?
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4:50 |
: I like that
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4:50 |
: I’m worried about some of Clev’s peripherals
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4:50 |
: Chance Sisco or Austin Hedges rest of season?
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4:51 |
: Take a Chance on Sisco
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4:51 |
: Here, I found your puke
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4:51 |
: Quick take: Kershaw for AJ Pollock?
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4:51 |
: Gimme Pollock
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4:51 |
: Any hesitation to sell fairly high on Hosmer and Porcello? I need help in the OF. Related question: Would you buy Benintendi or Bogaerts?
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4:51 |
: No and yes, either
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4:51 |
: Benintendi is probably cheaper
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4:52 |
: Just picked up Matt Adams post-tear. Play him and keep, or try to sell high?
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4:52 |
: Both?
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4:52 |
: What is your reasoning for not thinking Taylor will steal much this season?
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4:52 |
: He’s not really that fast. Last year was his most successful baserunning season as a 26-year-old
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4:53 |
: This year he’s 1-for-4
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4:53 |
: Carpenter 0/4 again today, I’m cutting him
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4:53 |
: Barreto, B Rodgers, Luis Urias. If you’re sitting on one guy to help your MI in 2018, who are you sitting on? (You’re trying to hatch them from an egg, obviously)
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4:53 |
: Urias is my egg of choice
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4:53 |
: I flew under the radars but i have top 30 sp ceiling….or not?
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4:54 |
: Not immediately, but you certainly look like a Carlos Martinez-quality pitcher
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4:54 |
: CMart needs a few years to really put it together
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4:54 |
: Could be the same with F-Rome
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4:54 |
: time to sell high on story, or is 30/30 a real possibility?
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4:54 |
: 30 SB feels unlikely
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4:54 |
: 30 HR feels likely
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4:54 |
: I bet big on modest improvements this year.
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4:55 |
: As shitty as he was last year, he was still a useful fantasy player
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4:55 |
: A not-shitty version of Story is a top 50 player. A good version is a third rounder
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4:55 |
: You like Kingery or Schoop more for today?
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4:55 |
: Schoop
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4:55 |
: Do I start Gleyber or Tim Anderson?
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4:55 |
: Gleyber
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4:56 |
: I see no reason to think Anderson is any different than past season, with one exception
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4:56 |
: I do think we can bank on him stealing at a higher rate
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4:56 |
: But we’re still looking at a tiny AVG and OBP with 12-17 HR power
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4:56 |
: Puig vs Souza ROS?
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4:56 |
: Ooof
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4:56 |
: Mediocre
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4:56 |
: Shaw or Chapman?
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4:56 |
: Chapman. Like ’em both
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4:56 |
: My gallo or his benitendi? H2H points league
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4:56 |
: Gallo unless you need +15 SB
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4:57 |
: And can give up 30 HR
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4:57 |
: Gallo has a very good chance to lead the league in HR
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4:57 |
: I traded Jose Martinez for Conforto who wins, or is it a push?
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4:57 |
: I’d take Conforto
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4:57 |
: Billy or Mallex
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4:57 |
: What’s your time frame
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4:57 |
: Mallex is better, but his playing time is less certain long term
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4:58 |
: Would you hold or drop Matt Chapman in a keeper if Senzel or Vladito were available?
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4:58 |
: Why would you consider dropping Chapman? Just because he’s been recently slumpy? He’s a stud
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4:58 |
: Do you think I’m playing hurt? Is there any chance I come back to 2017 form?
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4:58 |
: No I think you’re healthy
|
4:59 |
: So let’s pause a second to consider guys like Chapman and Santana. We’re still in small sample land on the season, but we need to be patient with anybody who feels streaky
|
4:59 |
: the other shoe will drop, whether it’s a good or bad streak
|
4:59 |
: How do you prefer your eggs when they are not middle infield prospects and instead are served for breakfast- or late night at a diner?
|
5:00 |
: Over easy with a bed of split sausage, bacon-fried peppers/onion, and, of course, the bacon.
|
5:00 |
: I make that for breakfast roughly every other day
|
5:00 |
: Kershaw or Pollock, standard 12tm-5×5 roto?
|
5:00 |
: I answered this!
|
5:00 |
: Looking to flip Story for a pitcher. Who should I target?
|
5:00 |
: Thor?
|
5:01 |
: Severino
|
5:01 |
: Aim high
|
5:01 |
: Currently banking on offensive production of Chapman, Jose Martinez, Bell, Hicks. Bell’s the short man if I gotta cut someone, right?
|
5:01 |
: Yes
|
5:01 |
: Ok, I need to set some DFS rosters then go mash some softballs. I’m subbing for my friend’s team tonight
|
5:01 |
: Softball is super easy btw.
|
5:02 |
: Thanks for playing folks
|
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