Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 5/14/2019

Brad Johnson: Welcome. We’ll get started in a few moments.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Travis Shaw…worth picking up and stashing on the DL?

Brad Johnson: So we might as well start with a little monologue about the Brewers.

Brad Johnson: 1. Hiura was called up today. Decent chance he struggles initially. Long term, I’m very bullish. Could click immediately. His strikeout rate at Triple-A looks bad, but more recently it’s been good. Selectively choosing the best “recent” sample reveals 18.4% K% since April 21.

Fangraph’s Lurker: In a 10 team league, already got a twin (odorizzi) and a phillie (Nola), but should I drop stroman for Gibson? Or eflin? Or pick up hiura?

Brad Johnson: I’d stash Hiura

Brad Johnson: I forgot what I was doing! Distracted by some trade talks happening in the background.

Brad Johnson: Anyway, back to the Brewers

Brad Johnson: 2. I like Shaw as a stash in sufficiently deep leagues. He can reasonably be expected to rebound with some time to settle down and get healthy. The presumption is he’s dealing with the aftereffects of a hand injury.

Brad Johnson: In shallower formats, you can move on and maybe grumble later if he winds up helping somebody else.

Brad Johnson: Active production is important in shallow leagues.

Brad Johnson: Hiura and Moustakas might not leave a role for Shaw after all

Brad Johnson: 3. In a general sense, I like that the Brewers aren’t mucking around. Play the best team. Hiura is part of that right now.

DJ Tanner: My dynasty team is sitting middle of the pack (5×5 roto/OPS) in need of HR/RBI guys. On my MiLB team, I have Yordan and Austin Riley sitting there. You think they will be helpful when they get the call? Would love to make a run

Brad Johnson: Alvarez should be very helpful. I’ve never really thought Riley was a MLBer, but I’ve heard some positive reports (finally!) in recent weeks. I haven’t personally evaluated him.

Jim: Daniel Murphy – I know it’s probably SSS, give he’s had about 2 weeks’ worth of ABs, but yikes. Is he toast?

Brad Johnson: Nah, give him time. Could STILL lead the league in batting average with that home park.

Matt: Where are we at with Nola now? I’m beginning to get some low ball offers in a dynasty league, and I’m not interested in selling low, but worried I might end up regretting this.

Al Gone Quinn: Most FG pundits have advised caution with Votto for like 7 or 8 weeks now. Time to throw it into the wind and replace him with *gulp* Chris Davis?

Trevor: Where is Aaron Nola’s trade value at now?

Brad Johnson: Meant to only click on the Nola questions.

Brad Johnson: As for Votto, no, you’re not cutting him for Chris Davis

Brad Johnson: For Hunter Dozier, sure.

Brad Johnson: I’d slot Votto ahead of Brandon Belt and Eric Hosmer

Nelson: Total opposite ends of the sexiness spectrum: Corbin Martin vs Odorizzi, this year only?

Brad Johnson: I’d go for Martin’s upside over Odorizzi’s… assured mediocrity…

Brad Johnson: And I screwed up again! Nola trade value:

Brad Johnson: I advise patience or else selling only at full price. Especially in a dynasty format. I still think this is just a minor mechanical issue or similar. Something that can click back into place very suddenly.

pat burrell’s ghost: also man am i still holding matt carpenter? with obp? i am aren’t i.

Brad Johnson: Yep. We’ve been here before with Carpenter, haven’t we?

Brett: Has Lucas Giolito shown enough to be rostered over someone like German Marquez?

Brad Johnson: I feel like Giolito is roughly comparable in expected EOS numbers but in a completely unpredictable way. You can start German Marquez at sea level against non-Dodgers and pretty much bank a mini-ace.

RADJ: Thoughts on the usefullness of Mercado?

Brad Johnson: Not as fast as his SB numbers suggest. Better than what the Indians have been using in their entire OF, but not necessarily more than a generic guy who plays. Enough pop, speed, utility, and contact to potentially be sneaky good

Brad Johnson: I don’t see him flying under any radars though

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t bust the budget on him like I would for Hiura. Though maybe that’s foolish. Hiura might have to rake to keep Shaw down. Mercado just needs a 100 wRC+ to be the fourth best Indians hitter.

1B Times: Chris David or Brandon Belt?

Brad Johnson: Belt

Dan: HELP! I am paralyzed by my indecision and need a wise sage like yourself to make the decision for me on a trade.  12 tm mixed H2H, auction, keeper league. Very deep (30 man rosters, 16 man minor league rosters). I’m in contention but need to improve my SP and RP. I’ve been offered Matthew Boyd ($2) and Kenley Jansen ($23) for my Alex Kirilloff (minor league roster). Seems like a no-brainer but I pause at the sustainability of Matthew Boyd’s production…

Brad Johnson: So here’s the thing… I still have Boyd as around a 4.00 ERA pitcher. I think if you’re contending in this format, this is still a reasonable swap. I know this is very deep to you, but it’s not actually deep. With only 192 prospects rostered, you have plenty of future studs sitting on waivers.

Brad Johnson: That said, you can aim higher, counter, or get a second opinion on Boyd. I know a lot of my colleagues buy his breakout more than I do.

TJ: Think Hunter Dozier is for real?  He’s cooled down, but still looks pretty legit.

Brad Johnson: Yes, this cooled version seems to be correct

OddBall Herrera: I am so intrigued by Zac Gallen’s dominance in the current PCL environment, but then, he would be going to a team that’s got a whole 10 wins to its name.  Can he be good enough to be valuable even on that team?

Brad Johnson: I think he could be better than a streamer in an unexciting way

Tommy La Sort of: Bregman seems to be showing a different gear. That possible?

Brad Johnson: I’m… not seeing it. He skipped his 1/4 season slump to start 2019 though.

Brad Johnson: His current HR/FB rate will probably regress towards his career norms, the BABIP will climb, and his ratio of doubles to HR will normalize

Brad Johnson: Last year, 51 doubles, 1 triple, 31 HR

Brad Johnson: This year, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 13 HR

Brad Johnson: This happens in small samples all the time. Always count on more doubles than HR except in some outlier types

Stranger Ving Rhames: Lucchessi vs. Gallen ROS. Who ya got?

Brad Johnson: Gallen isn’t on the 40-man roster. Elieser Hernandez is also pitching well in Triple-A and has a 40-man spot.

Brad Johnson: So Lucchesi based on opportunity

Quadrangular: Do you think Cease comes up this season?

Brad Johnson: Yes. He’s one of their top 5 SP right now.

Brad Johnson: He could be the next prospect promotion

Brad Johnson: Or it might take another couple months, hard to tell

Tom: Speaking of 40 man rosters, since Yordan Alvarez isn’t on it does that mean we probably won’t see him until rosters expand?  …if then?

Brad Johnson: No, I don’t think so.

Brad Johnson: Luhnow’s already basically said “we’re probably going to call him up soon”

Brad Johnson: Alvarez just needs to avoid a slump

MM: Chasing Pham.  Offering Puig _____.  Figure Puig should get me about 60% of the way there.  What kind of _____ is appropriate?

Brad Johnson: A good-not-great closer?

Josh Hater: Dump Cano for Yandy Diaz?

Brad Johnson: I think you can do that

Josh Hater: Astudillo or W Ramos, with no bench hitters?

Brad Johnson: Astudillo would get my vote in a pure skills-off

Brad Johnson: But Ramos plays regularly. Astudillo might have trouble cracking regular action when Sano returns (which is soon)

Micah: For value this season, is it worth cutting Mallex Smith, Winker, and/or G Polanco to stash prospects like Luis Urias, Riley, Rodgers, Tucker, Biggio, etc?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: Not those specific players

Matt W: Where’s the line for you on non-coors starts? Would you sit, say, Morton for his sunday start in Yankee Stadium? I’d probably replace him with Fried vs Milwaukee

Brad Johnson: I’d play Morton

Brad Johnson: I think I’d play him in Coors, but I mostly do deep leagues.

Brad Johnson: If you’re in a shallow format and need to really micro those rate stats, then… well… I’d still start Morton

Brad Johnson: He’s one of the best pitchers in the league though

Brad Johnson: Lots of bigger name brands I’d sit

Nick: Who will have the biggest fantasy impact ROS: Griffin Canning, Cal Quantrill, or Jesus Luzardo?

Brad Johnson: I’d bet on Canning as of today

Brad Johnson: I’m not convinced Quantrill is MLB-quality

Andrew: What’s a reasonable expectation for Nicky Lopez?  Something like a 10hr 20 sb full season pace, or am I overestimating his power?

Brad Johnson: I’ve seen very conflicting reports. I think you’re hoping for Cesar Hernandez

Bubba: When is Jose Ramirez going to remember he’s Jose Ramirez?

Guest: I’m one of the many annoyed Jose Ramirez owners who is actually fortunate enough to still be doing extremely well across the entire hitting spectrum, but my pitching has been hot garbage.  Where in the pitching rankings should I consider the cut-off to actually move him?  Top-5? 10? 15?

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Hey, a rare Jose Ramirez dinger today.

LarryA: If you were redrafting now for the rest of the season what round does Jose Ramirez get picked?

Brad Johnson: Some Jose Ramirez chatter

Brad Johnson: Last one first, I’d probably have Ramirez in the pick 10 to 20 mix

Brad Johnson: Which is roughly where I had him in the first place. More like 7 to 15.

Brad Johnson: But I have no Ramirezes for a reason

Brad Johnson: Oh, I do have some Harold Ramirez

Brad Johnson: “Guest”: I would trade one of your currently performing, lesser players for a comparable SP. Or you could try Ramirez for Sale in the ultimate orgy of “what is happening here?????!?”

Brad Johnson: You’re going to hate yourself for trading Ramirez for a SP then watching the SP blow up

Cito’s Mustache: Hey Brad, I’ve got a couple minor slots open in a dynasty points league. Which 2 of Oscar Mercado, Dylan Carlson, Josh Lowe, Monte Harrison, Jordan Groshans or Kevin Smith should I pick up? I have no glaring positional needs at the moment. Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Mercado offers an immediate assessment

Brad Johnson: I like Carlson personally

Brad Johnson: Groshans is pretty heavily hyped

Brad Johnson: I’d stick to those 3

Pancakes: Is this the end of Joey Votto? Last year seemed like a down season by his standards but the batted ball profile was still amazing. This year it’s hard to find any positives

Brad Johnson: It might be the beginning of the end, but I think he’ll have fantasy-relevant numbers when the dust clears.

Brad Johnson: At least on a rate basis

Brad Johnson: We have to start worrying about injuries taking chunks of PT now

Connor Joe Buck: Better to go with hitters or pitchers for minor league slots?

Brad Johnson: Hitters

Georgio: Justin Smoak has a .396 xwoba and more barrels and more EV than last year.  Good buy low candidate?

Brad Johnson: I’m not paying for a .396 wOBA. But you can do much worse than Smoak as a back-of-the-roster bat. And he should cost very little.

Jackson: Juan Soto ($14, 4X4 Otto) is making me wish I had entertained some of those glorious pre-season offers.  I won’t cut him of course, but could MLB have already figured out his high contact and avoid breaking balls approach?

Brad Johnson: Uh, remember that he’s a 20-year-old.

Brad Johnson: Of course he’s having some trouble in the majors. He has a 119 wRC+, he’ll be fine

Mike: Bryce Harper has been… well, he’s been abysmal outside of the first week of the season or so.  Strikeouts are skyrocketing, contact rates are plummeting.  Did the Phillies sign Adam Dunn to a 13-year contract?

Brad Johnson: Harper does this every so often

Brad Johnson: Then he fixes something and goes on a rampage

Brad Johnson: I see no cause for concern

Rhys: What range of SPs would you target with hoskins, deep points league where elite SPs have most value…

Brad Johnson: Morton?

Brad Johnson: Maybe Morton and a decent closer?

Ape Lincoln: Smoak better end-of-the-roster hitter than Yandy Diaz?

Brad Johnson: Same asset class probably

Connor Joe Buck: Is there any reason to grab Rutschman ASAP after the draft?

Brad Johnson: In what context? I doubt he runs all the way to the majors in 2019.

Brad Johnson: Why would the Orioles do that?

Ape Lincoln: Buying Pivetta when he returns to rotation? Better than someone like Woodruff or Maeda or Darvish?

Brad Johnson: I’m going to say same asset class. If you’re fed up with the others, you can try Pivetta instead.

Brad Johnson: But I’ve been calling him nuNolasco for a while. And I think that’s what we saw.

Quadrangular: in the spirit of asking about last season’s favs: is this about the Acuña you expected for 2019?

Brad Johnson: Yea, more or less. I’d even argue he’s improved despite a 17 point drop in wRC+

Jeff M: 12 team 6×6 (add OPS) league. Would you drop Cano for Hiura?

Brad Johnson: I would give it a try, yes

Brad Johnson: It’s a gamble

Nathan: Soto and L. Castillo or M. Chapman and Max Scherzer? 12 team redraft h2h

Brad Johnson: That’s a BIG trade.

Brad Johnson: Actually…

Brad Johnson:

Jody Reed: Is Raimel Tapia a pickup in a 12 team league?  The Rockies make me so gun shy with playing time for guys.  But the man is raking.

Brad Johnson: If you have bench enough to manage his offdays and diligently check lineups before game time

Nathan: Jose abreau ROS home runs over/under 30?

Brad Johnson: under

Brad Johnson: You’re saying he’s a 40 HR pace true talent

Brad Johnson: and he maxed out in the mid-30s during his prime

Connor Joe Buck: re: Rutschman: in an ottoneu (dynasty?) league where he could be held onto moving forward

Brad Johnson: Well sure, grab him for $1 if you can

Brad Johnson: Let somebody else pay $8 though

A Hicks: What can we expect from Hicks when he returns to the Yankees?

Brad Johnson: I need to write a default article for these “what can we expect when…” questions

Brad Johnson: An injured player could be rusty, still injured, healthier than ever, normal, or something else

Brad Johnson: We can use league history to model an expected distribution, but applying it to a single player is still bad science

Brad Johnson: We can use player history to say “this guy heals slow or needs to be fully healthy”

Brad Johnson: That’s just a narrative though.

Brad Johnson: In general, we know what Hicks SHOULD look like. We can hope he performs that way.

Brad Johnson: And we can assess using footage and stats to determine if he’s 1. back 2. wrong 3. wrong but will be right

James: Trade Votto for Hand in a 15 team Roto? I could really use saves

Brad Johnson: Yea, sure

seth r: Eloy (keepable at $10 next year) for Seager ($22) and Winker ($8), which side do you prefer?

Brad Johnson: Winker side

Brad Johnson: I think Winker wins on production through 2020. Then you also get Seager!

Brad Johnson: It’s after 2020 the equation could shift. I’m generally keen to trade distant future for near future.

Jeff Blauser’s Batting Gloves: What are the odds Bichette makes an impact this year?

Brad Johnson: Pretty low as he wasn’t close to forcing a call up even before he broke his hand

A Hicks: Sorry for the dumb Hicks question.

Brad Johnson: No need for self-abasement, it’s a very common question structure. It’s just not a helpful question because you’re asking me to be an oracle.

Brad Johnson: I can either pretend to be an oracle or offer an unhelpful shrug

Jack Straw: With Bichette question answered, What are the odds Cavan Biggio makes an impact this year?

Brad Johnson: Higher than Bichette

Brad Johnson: For one, there is less agreement that Biggio is a future MLBer

Brad Johnson: So the Blue Jays gain more by evaluating him in front of their best personnel.

Swedish Chef: BUT…. we’re paying you to be an oracle

JRam: Would my owner be dumb to trade me for Snell and Devers in a 3yr keep limit, 13tm Roto?

Brad Johnson: Well, depends on those keep limits.

Brad Johnson: Looks pretty reasonable though

Craig Tepper: Now a good time to sell high on Pete Alonso? Any ideas for what I could potentially ask for?

Brad Johnson: If you have spare CI and need help elsewhere, sure

Brad Johnson: Don’t need to force anything. Aim high because name value matters

Ken Giles Right Hook: Here’s the real question however… Are you one of the oracles from 300? Or are you the Oracle from The League? Big difference

Brad Johnson: I’m the company Oracle

Rupert from Scotland: We’re paying you to be an Oracle but you’re still just an AT&T

Steven: Can you please try to shed any additional light on the closer situation in Seattle…..I have Elias…should I pick up Brennan? Rosscup? both?…Thanks.

Brad Johnson: Hahahahaha.

Brad Johnson: No, I cannot

Brad Johnson: It’s just a mucky pen. Elias, Brennan, and Parker Markel are the guys I’m watching now.

Bunz: Thanks for the chat Brad.  It’s an enjoyable part of my week.

Brad Johnson: Bunz knows when I’m about to throw in the towel

Brad Johnson: I’ll be able to push these a little longer again starting in June

Brad Johnson: My social calendar currently requires me to eat and do core exercises now

Brad Johnson: So… last call

Craig Tepper: Do you definitely prefer Carlos Correa to Paul DeJong for the rest of this season?

Brad Johnson: Yea, I do. But I’m not making a fuss about having DeJong instead

Leif: I can keep two of these three shortstops, Dejong, Polanco or Simmons.  Who do I let go?

Brad Johnson: Simmons

Brad Johnson: Polanco is flashing a maybe-Betts breakout

Brad Johnson: Not saying it’s definitely happening, but we’re looking at a similar set of skills. Skills which can win fantasy leagues.

Brad Johnson: Simmons is just a solid always starts guy

Thanks: Was offered caleb for nola, should I qccept?

Brad Johnson: I really don’t think you can

Brad Johnson: If the Marlins were actually the Braves, then sure

Ken Giles Right Hook: Brad I must know your favorite episode of the Office

Ken Giles Right Hook: To know if your advice is trustworthy

Brad Johnson: The best office-based show is The IT Crowd

Money: You should plug your Patreon more

Brad Johnson: Why thanks, I should! Honestly though, I try to walk a fine line between self-promotion and not being completely obnoxious about it

Brad Johnson: Here’s an introduction to just some of the available content. https://www.patreon.com/posts/26683471

Brad Johnson: If you’re interested in becoming a patron, then navigate from there to the BaseballATeam home page. Or maybe there’s a giant button to become a patron. I see a different page than you do!

Brad Johnson: I highly recommend joining our Discord community. It’s like a continuous version of this chat but everybody can participate live.

Brad Johnson: And so far, we haven’t had any issues with nincompoops.

Brad Johnson: On that note, I bid you all adieu.

Ronny Rob: Am I for really real?

Brad Johnson: Great question. Maybe!

Sweet Teahen: Nearly dropped Jorge Polanco right at the start of the year — yikes.

Brad Johnson: Phew

Kdog: Expect much from Mallex when he comes back?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Bunz: Who will win the game of thrones?