Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 5/14/2019
by Brad Johnson
May 14, 2019
Ray Liotta makes an appearance in today’s chat transcript.
| 3:58 |
: Welcome. We’ll get started in a few moments.
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| 4:00 |
: Travis Shaw…worth picking up and stashing on the DL?
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| 4:00 |
: So we might as well start with a little monologue about the Brewers.
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| 4:02 |
: 1. Hiura was called up today. Decent chance he struggles initially. Long term, I’m very bullish. Could click immediately. His strikeout rate at Triple-A looks bad, but more recently it’s been good. Selectively choosing the best “recent” sample reveals 18.4% K% since April 21.
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| 4:04 |
: In a 10 team league, already got a twin (odorizzi) and a phillie (Nola), but should I drop stroman for Gibson? Or eflin? Or pick up hiura?
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| 4:04 |
: I’d stash Hiura
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| 4:04 |
: I forgot what I was doing! Distracted by some trade talks happening in the background.
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| 4:04 |
: Anyway, back to the Brewers
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| 4:05 |
: 2. I like Shaw as a stash in sufficiently deep leagues. He can reasonably be expected to rebound with some time to settle down and get healthy. The presumption is he’s dealing with the aftereffects of a hand injury.
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| 4:06 |
: In shallower formats, you can move on and maybe grumble later if he winds up helping somebody else.
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| 4:06 |
: Active production is important in shallow leagues.
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| 4:06 |
: Hiura and Moustakas might not leave a role for Shaw after all
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| 4:07 |
: 3. In a general sense, I like that the Brewers aren’t mucking around. Play the best team. Hiura is part of that right now.
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| 4:07 |
: My dynasty team is sitting middle of the pack (5×5 roto/OPS) in need of HR/RBI guys. On my MiLB team, I have Yordan and Austin Riley sitting there. You think they will be helpful when they get the call? Would love to make a run
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| 4:08 |
: Alvarez should be very helpful. I’ve never really thought Riley was a MLBer, but I’ve heard some positive reports (finally!) in recent weeks. I haven’t personally evaluated him.
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| 4:08 |
: Daniel Murphy – I know it’s probably SSS, give he’s had about 2 weeks’ worth of ABs, but yikes. Is he toast?
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| 4:08 |
: Nah, give him time. Could STILL lead the league in batting average with that home park.
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| 4:08 |
: Where are we at with Nola now? I’m beginning to get some low ball offers in a dynasty league, and I’m not interested in selling low, but worried I might end up regretting this.
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| 4:08 |
: Most FG pundits have advised caution with Votto for like 7 or 8 weeks now. Time to throw it into the wind and replace him with *gulp* Chris Davis?
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| 4:08 |
: Where is Aaron Nola’s trade value at now?
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| 4:09 |
: Meant to only click on the Nola questions.
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| 4:09 |
: As for Votto, no, you’re not cutting him for Chris Davis
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| 4:09 |
: For Hunter Dozier, sure.
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| 4:11 |
: I’d slot Votto ahead of Brandon Belt and Eric Hosmer
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| 4:11 |
: Total opposite ends of the sexiness spectrum: Corbin Martin vs Odorizzi, this year only?
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| 4:11 |
: I’d go for Martin’s upside over Odorizzi’s… assured mediocrity…
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| 4:12 |
: And I screwed up again! Nola trade value:
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| 4:13 |
: I advise patience or else selling only at full price. Especially in a dynasty format. I still think this is just a minor mechanical issue or similar. Something that can click back into place very suddenly.
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| 4:13 |
: also man am i still holding matt carpenter? with obp? i am aren’t i.
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| 4:13 |
: Yep. We’ve been here before with Carpenter, haven’t we?
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| 4:13 |
: Has Lucas Giolito shown enough to be rostered over someone like German Marquez?
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| 4:14 |
: I feel like Giolito is roughly comparable in expected EOS numbers but in a completely unpredictable way. You can start German Marquez at sea level against non-Dodgers and pretty much bank a mini-ace.
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| 4:14 |
: Thoughts on the usefullness of Mercado?
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| 4:16 |
: Not as fast as his SB numbers suggest. Better than what the Indians have been using in their entire OF, but not necessarily more than a generic guy who plays. Enough pop, speed, utility, and contact to potentially be sneaky good
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| 4:16 |
: I don’t see him flying under any radars though
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| 4:17 |
: I wouldn’t bust the budget on him like I would for Hiura. Though maybe that’s foolish. Hiura might have to rake to keep Shaw down. Mercado just needs a 100 wRC+ to be the fourth best Indians hitter.
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| 4:17 |
: Chris David or Brandon Belt?
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| 4:17 |
: Belt
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| 4:17 |
: HELP! I am paralyzed by my indecision and need a wise sage like yourself to make the decision for me on a trade. 12 tm mixed H2H, auction, keeper league. Very deep (30 man rosters, 16 man minor league rosters). I’m in contention but need to improve my SP and RP. I’ve been offered Matthew Boyd ($2) and Kenley Jansen ($23) for my Alex Kirilloff (minor league roster). Seems like a no-brainer but I pause at the sustainability of Matthew Boyd’s production…
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| 4:19 |
: So here’s the thing… I still have Boyd as around a 4.00 ERA pitcher. I think if you’re contending in this format, this is still a reasonable swap. I know this is very deep to you, but it’s not actually deep. With only 192 prospects rostered, you have plenty of future studs sitting on waivers.
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| 4:19 |
: That said, you can aim higher, counter, or get a second opinion on Boyd. I know a lot of my colleagues buy his breakout more than I do.
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| 4:20 |
: Think Hunter Dozier is for real? He’s cooled down, but still looks pretty legit.
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| 4:20 |
: Yes, this cooled version seems to be correct
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| 4:22 |
: I am so intrigued by Zac Gallen’s dominance in the current PCL environment, but then, he would be going to a team that’s got a whole 10 wins to its name. Can he be good enough to be valuable even on that team?
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| 4:22 |
: I think he could be better than a streamer in an unexciting way
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| 4:23 |
: Bregman seems to be showing a different gear. That possible?
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| 4:23 |
: I’m… not seeing it. He skipped his 1/4 season slump to start 2019 though.
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| 4:24 |
: His current HR/FB rate will probably regress towards his career norms, the BABIP will climb, and his ratio of doubles to HR will normalize
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| 4:24 |
: Last year, 51 doubles, 1 triple, 31 HR
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| 4:25 |
: This year, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 13 HR
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| 4:25 |
: This happens in small samples all the time. Always count on more doubles than HR except in some outlier types
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| 4:25 |
: Lucchessi vs. Gallen ROS. Who ya got?
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| 4:26 |
: Gallen isn’t on the 40-man roster. Elieser Hernandez is also pitching well in Triple-A and has a 40-man spot.
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| 4:26 |
: So Lucchesi based on opportunity
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| 4:26 |
: Do you think Cease comes up this season?
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| 4:27 |
: Yes. He’s one of their top 5 SP right now.
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| 4:27 |
: He could be the next prospect promotion
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| 4:27 |
: Or it might take another couple months, hard to tell
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| 4:27 |
: Speaking of 40 man rosters, since Yordan Alvarez isn’t on it does that mean we probably won’t see him until rosters expand? …if then?
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| 4:27 |
: No, I don’t think so.
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| 4:28 |
: Luhnow’s already basically said “we’re probably going to call him up soon”
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| 4:28 |
: Alvarez just needs to avoid a slump
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| 4:28 |
: Chasing Pham. Offering Puig _____. Figure Puig should get me about 60% of the way there. What kind of _____ is appropriate?
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| 4:28 |
: A good-not-great closer?
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| 4:28 |
: Dump Cano for Yandy Diaz?
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| 4:29 |
: I think you can do that
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| 4:29 |
: Astudillo or W Ramos, with no bench hitters?
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| 4:29 |
: Astudillo would get my vote in a pure skills-off
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| 4:29 |
: But Ramos plays regularly. Astudillo might have trouble cracking regular action when Sano returns (which is soon)
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| 4:29 |
: For value this season, is it worth cutting Mallex Smith, Winker, and/or G Polanco to stash prospects like Luis Urias, Riley, Rodgers, Tucker, Biggio, etc?
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| 4:29 |
: No
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| 4:29 |
: Not those specific players
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| 4:30 |
: Where’s the line for you on non-coors starts? Would you sit, say, Morton for his sunday start in Yankee Stadium? I’d probably replace him with Fried vs Milwaukee
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| 4:30 |
: I’d play Morton
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| 4:30 |
: I think I’d play him in Coors, but I mostly do deep leagues.
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| 4:31 |
: If you’re in a shallow format and need to really micro those rate stats, then… well… I’d still start Morton
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| 4:31 |
: He’s one of the best pitchers in the league though
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| 4:31 |
: Lots of bigger name brands I’d sit
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| 4:31 |
: Who will have the biggest fantasy impact ROS: Griffin Canning, Cal Quantrill, or Jesus Luzardo?
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| 4:31 |
: I’d bet on Canning as of today
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| 4:32 |
: I’m not convinced Quantrill is MLB-quality
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| 4:32 |
: What’s a reasonable expectation for Nicky Lopez? Something like a 10hr 20 sb full season pace, or am I overestimating his power?
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| 4:32 |
: I’ve seen very conflicting reports. I think you’re hoping for Cesar Hernandez
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| 4:32 |
: When is Jose Ramirez going to remember he’s Jose Ramirez?
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| 4:33 |
: I’m one of the many annoyed Jose Ramirez owners who is actually fortunate enough to still be doing extremely well across the entire hitting spectrum, but my pitching has been hot garbage. Where in the pitching rankings should I consider the cut-off to actually move him? Top-5? 10? 15?
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| 4:33 |
: Hey, a rare Jose Ramirez dinger today.
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| 4:33 |
: If you were redrafting now for the rest of the season what round does Jose Ramirez get picked?
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| 4:33 |
: Some Jose Ramirez chatter
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| 4:33 |
: Last one first, I’d probably have Ramirez in the pick 10 to 20 mix
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| 4:34 |
: Which is roughly where I had him in the first place. More like 7 to 15.
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| 4:34 |
: But I have no Ramirezes for a reason
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| 4:34 |
: Oh, I do have some Harold Ramirez
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| 4:35 |
: “Guest”: I would trade one of your currently performing, lesser players for a comparable SP. Or you could try Ramirez for Sale in the ultimate orgy of “what is happening here?????!?”
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| 4:36 |
: You’re going to hate yourself for trading Ramirez for a SP then watching the SP blow up
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| 4:36 |
: Hey Brad, I’ve got a couple minor slots open in a dynasty points league. Which 2 of Oscar Mercado, Dylan Carlson, Josh Lowe, Monte Harrison, Jordan Groshans or Kevin Smith should I pick up? I have no glaring positional needs at the moment. Thanks!
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| 4:36 |
: Mercado offers an immediate assessment
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| 4:36 |
: I like Carlson personally
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| 4:37 |
: Groshans is pretty heavily hyped
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| 4:37 |
: I’d stick to those 3
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| 4:37 |
: Is this the end of Joey Votto? Last year seemed like a down season by his standards but the batted ball profile was still amazing. This year it’s hard to find any positives
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| 4:37 |
: It might be the beginning of the end, but I think he’ll have fantasy-relevant numbers when the dust clears.
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| 4:37 |
: At least on a rate basis
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| 4:38 |
: We have to start worrying about injuries taking chunks of PT now
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| 4:38 |
: Better to go with hitters or pitchers for minor league slots?
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| 4:38 |
: Hitters
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| 4:38 |
: Justin Smoak has a .396 xwoba and more barrels and more EV than last year. Good buy low candidate?
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| 4:39 |
: I’m not paying for a .396 wOBA. But you can do much worse than Smoak as a back-of-the-roster bat. And he should cost very little.
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| 4:39 |
: Juan Soto ($14, 4X4 Otto) is making me wish I had entertained some of those glorious pre-season offers. I won’t cut him of course, but could MLB have already figured out his high contact and avoid breaking balls approach?
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| 4:40 |
: Uh, remember that he’s a 20-year-old.
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| 4:40 |
: Of course he’s having some trouble in the majors. He has a 119 wRC+, he’ll be fine
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| 4:40 |
: Bryce Harper has been… well, he’s been abysmal outside of the first week of the season or so. Strikeouts are skyrocketing, contact rates are plummeting. Did the Phillies sign Adam Dunn to a 13-year contract?
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| 4:40 |
: Harper does this every so often
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| 4:41 |
: Then he fixes something and goes on a rampage
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| 4:41 |
: I see no cause for concern
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| 4:41 |
: What range of SPs would you target with hoskins, deep points league where elite SPs have most value…
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| 4:42 |
: Morton?
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| 4:42 |
: Maybe Morton and a decent closer?
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| 4:42 |
: Smoak better end-of-the-roster hitter than Yandy Diaz?
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| 4:42 |
: Same asset class probably
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| 4:42 |
: Is there any reason to grab Rutschman ASAP after the draft?
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| 4:42 |
: In what context? I doubt he runs all the way to the majors in 2019.
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| 4:43 |
: Why would the Orioles do that?
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| 4:43 |
: Buying Pivetta when he returns to rotation? Better than someone like Woodruff or Maeda or Darvish?
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| 4:44 |
: I’m going to say same asset class. If you’re fed up with the others, you can try Pivetta instead.
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| 4:44 |
: But I’ve been calling him nuNolasco for a while. And I think that’s what we saw.
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| 4:44 |
: in the spirit of asking about last season’s favs: is this about the Acuña you expected for 2019?
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| 4:45 |
: Yea, more or less. I’d even argue he’s improved despite a 17 point drop in wRC+
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| 4:45 |
: 12 team 6×6 (add OPS) league. Would you drop Cano for Hiura?
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| 4:45 |
: I would give it a try, yes
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| 4:45 |
: It’s a gamble
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| 4:45 |
: Soto and L. Castillo or M. Chapman and Max Scherzer? 12 team redraft h2h
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| 4:46 |
: That’s a BIG trade.
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| 4:46 |
: Actually…
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| 4:46 |
:
Which?
Soto and Castillo (23.9% | 33 votes)
Chapman and Scherzer (76.0% | 105 votes)
Total Votes: 138
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| 4:46 |
: Is Raimel Tapia a pickup in a 12 team league? The Rockies make me so gun shy with playing time for guys. But the man is raking.
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| 4:47 |
: If you have bench enough to manage his offdays and diligently check lineups before game time
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| 4:47 |
: Jose abreau ROS home runs over/under 30?
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| 4:47 |
: under
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| 4:47 |
: You’re saying he’s a 40 HR pace true talent
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| 4:47 |
: and he maxed out in the mid-30s during his prime
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| 4:48 |
: re: Rutschman: in an ottoneu (dynasty?) league where he could be held onto moving forward
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| 4:48 |
: Well sure, grab him for $1 if you can
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| 4:48 |
: Let somebody else pay $8 though
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| 4:48 |
: What can we expect from Hicks when he returns to the Yankees?
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| 4:48 |
: I need to write a default article for these “what can we expect when…” questions
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| 4:49 |
: An injured player could be rusty, still injured, healthier than ever, normal, or something else
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| 4:49 |
: We can use league history to model an expected distribution, but applying it to a single player is still bad science
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| 4:50 |
: We can use player history to say “this guy heals slow or needs to be fully healthy”
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| 4:50 |
: That’s just a narrative though.
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| 4:50 |
: In general, we know what Hicks SHOULD look like. We can hope he performs that way.
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| 4:51 |
: And we can assess using footage and stats to determine if he’s 1. back 2. wrong 3. wrong but will be right
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| 4:51 |
: Trade Votto for Hand in a 15 team Roto? I could really use saves
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| 4:51 |
: Yea, sure
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| 4:51 |
: Eloy (keepable at $10 next year) for Seager ($22) and Winker ($8), which side do you prefer?
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| 4:51 |
: Winker side
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| 4:51 |
: I think Winker wins on production through 2020. Then you also get Seager!
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| 4:51 |
: It’s after 2020 the equation could shift. I’m generally keen to trade distant future for near future.
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| 4:52 |
: What are the odds Bichette makes an impact this year?
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| 4:52 |
: Pretty low as he wasn’t close to forcing a call up even before he broke his hand
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| 4:52 |
: Sorry for the dumb Hicks question.
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| 4:53 |
: No need for self-abasement, it’s a very common question structure. It’s just not a helpful question because you’re asking me to be an oracle.
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| 4:53 |
: I can either pretend to be an oracle or offer an unhelpful shrug
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| 4:54 |
: With Bichette question answered, What are the odds Cavan Biggio makes an impact this year?
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| 4:55 |
: Higher than Bichette
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| 4:55 |
: For one, there is less agreement that Biggio is a future MLBer
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| 4:55 |
: So the Blue Jays gain more by evaluating him in front of their best personnel.
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| 4:55 |
: BUT…. we’re paying you to be an oracle
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| 4:57 |
: Would my owner be dumb to trade me for Snell and Devers in a 3yr keep limit, 13tm Roto?
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| 4:57 |
: Well, depends on those keep limits.
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| 4:57 |
: Looks pretty reasonable though
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| 4:57 |
: Now a good time to sell high on Pete Alonso? Any ideas for what I could potentially ask for?
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| 4:58 |
: If you have spare CI and need help elsewhere, sure
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| 4:58 |
: Don’t need to force anything. Aim high because name value matters
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| 4:58 |
: Here’s the real question however… Are you one of the oracles from 300? Or are you the Oracle from The League? Big difference
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| 4:58 |
: I’m the company Oracle
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| 4:59 |
: We’re paying you to be an Oracle but you’re still just an AT&T
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| 4:59 |
: Can you please try to shed any additional light on the closer situation in Seattle…..I have Elias…should I pick up Brennan? Rosscup? both?…Thanks.
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| 4:59 |
: Hahahahaha.
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| 4:59 |
: No, I cannot
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| 5:00 |
: It’s just a mucky pen. Elias, Brennan, and Parker Markel are the guys I’m watching now.
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| 5:00 |
: Thanks for the chat Brad. It’s an enjoyable part of my week.
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| 5:00 |
: Bunz knows when I’m about to throw in the towel
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| 5:01 |
: I’ll be able to push these a little longer again starting in June
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| 5:01 |
: My social calendar currently requires me to eat and do core exercises now
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| 5:01 |
: So… last call
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| 5:01 |
: Do you definitely prefer Carlos Correa to Paul DeJong for the rest of this season?
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| 5:01 |
: Yea, I do. But I’m not making a fuss about having DeJong instead
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| 5:02 |
: I can keep two of these three shortstops, Dejong, Polanco or Simmons. Who do I let go?
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| 5:02 |
: Simmons
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| 5:02 |
: Polanco is flashing a maybe-Betts breakout
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| 5:02 |
: Not saying it’s definitely happening, but we’re looking at a similar set of skills. Skills which can win fantasy leagues.
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| 5:02 |
: Simmons is just a solid always starts guy
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| 5:02 |
: Was offered caleb for nola, should I qccept?
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| 5:02 |
: I really don’t think you can
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| 5:03 |
: If the Marlins were actually the Braves, then sure
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| 5:03 |
: Brad I must know your favorite episode of the Office
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| 5:03 |
: To know if your advice is trustworthy
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| 5:03 |
: The best office-based show is The IT Crowd
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| 5:04 |
: You should plug your Patreon more
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| 5:04 |
: Why thanks, I should! Honestly though, I try to walk a fine line between self-promotion and not being completely obnoxious about it
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| 5:06 |
: Here’s an introduction to just some of the available content. https://www.patreon.com/posts/26683471
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| 5:06 |
: If you’re interested in becoming a patron, then navigate from there to the BaseballATeam home page. Or maybe there’s a giant button to become a patron. I see a different page than you do!
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| 5:07 |
: I highly recommend joining our Discord community. It’s like a continuous version of this chat but everybody can participate live.
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| 5:07 |
: And so far, we haven’t had any issues with nincompoops.
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| 5:08 |
: On that note, I bid you all adieu.
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| 5:08 |
: Am I for really real?
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| 5:08 |
: Great question. Maybe!
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| 5:08 |
: Nearly dropped Jorge Polanco right at the start of the year — yikes.
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| 5:08 |
: Phew
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| 5:08 |
: Expect much from Mallex when he comes back?
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| 5:08 |
: Yes
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| 5:08 |
: Who will win the game of thrones?
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