Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 5/1/18
by Brad Johnson
May 1, 2018
Here’s today’s chat transcript.
| 4:03 |
: Hey folks, I lost track of time while building DFS lineups. We’ll get started in a moment.
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| 4:05 |
: Franchy or Teoscar for long term keeper?
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| 4:05 |
: Franchy, I think. They’re both high variance profiles. I kind of see the same floor and median outcomes with Franchy having more upside.
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| 4:05 |
: Thank you for hosting SEAGER REPLACEMENT CHAT. Thoughts on Healy right now? He’s my replacement (Machado moves to SS) over guys like Cozart, Davidson, Andujar, Peraza. 10 team standard H2H. Senzel still worth stashing to replace this bunch?
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| 4:06 |
: Can stash Senzel. I prefer Davidson and Cozart to Healy.
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| 4:06 |
: They’re all pretty similar, albeit with very different stat distributions.
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| 4:06 |
: Who you want most for saves out of AJ Minter, Joe Jiminez, or Jose Alvarez?
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| 4:07 |
: Minter. I really don’t think Jimenez is ever a closer. Not based on any time I’ve watched him pitch
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| 4:07 |
: Is there anything in Conforto’s peripherals (or video of his swing, for that matter) to indicate that his shoulder is still not healthy? The lack of power thus far is concerning, recognizing it’s still maybe SSS for him.
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| 4:07 |
: How we feeling about Chris Taylor ROS?
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| 4:07 |
: Whoops, doubled up. Conforto first
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| 4:08 |
: When he came back so quickly, I was concerned.
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| 4:08 |
: Miraculous returns usually mean the player is lying or over-taxing himself
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| 4:09 |
: So structural weakness, if not pain, could be affecting Conforto’s power.
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| 4:10 |
: As for Taylor, he’s not locked into everyday reps. So that’s good. Increasingly risky we’re looking at a .700 OPS with better fantasy than real world stats. He’ll remain useful.
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| 4:10 |
: Expected ROS ERA and WHIP for R.Lopez?
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| 4:11 |
: Like a 4.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP?
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| 4:11 |
: Maybe a little under both
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| 4:11 |
: How long until Norris is the clear closer?
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| 4:11 |
: Forever
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| 4:11 |
: He’ll always be the temporary patch – at least until they give up on contending
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| 4:12 |
: If Holland can’t get in on the action, they’ll turn to Gregerson or Leone or Hicks or Reyes or somebody else.
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| 4:12 |
: I feel like Enrique Hernandez, if he becomes a full time player now, is not such a bad fill in all by himself. Especially if it’s a league where his all-over-the-diamond eligibility plays…
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| 4:12 |
: True, the caveat being the need for everyday play. And if his body can handle it.
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| 4:12 |
: He’s never really done it successfully
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| 4:12 |
: Need a replacement for Seager. Story, Swanson, or Marte. NL-only keeper league. Could Godley get me Story?
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| 4:13 |
: Story is the best option by a mile. And Godley is close enough to try.
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| 4:13 |
: I’m a big Story fan.
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| 4:13 |
: In the vein of Seager replacement, would you take Swanson, Anderson, or Segura?
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| 4:13 |
: Segura
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| 4:13 |
: Seager victim here, had to pick up Peraza … he’s still fast but not stealing, do you think he ends up a serviceable SS fillin right now? His star has dimmed to non existence but he’s put together a torrid week
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| 4:14 |
: Works as a patch until you find better.
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| 4:14 |
: Gotta choose between Cahill and Marco Gonzales for my AL-only league? Who do I go for?
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| 4:14 |
: Cahill
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| 4:14 |
: My team is struggling. I got guys like dex fowler and puig — have you looked at them deeply at all? I think their peripherals look solid but they’ve been awful. Should I be patient? or trade? or drop them for other duds like heyward, granderson, moran, Pederson)?
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| 4:14 |
: I have a lot of Fowler shares
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| 4:14 |
: -0.6 WAR 🙁
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| 4:14 |
: Also, I agree the peripherals scream buy low
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| 4:14 |
: I’m a little less sold on Puig, but I’ve always been a doubter of his
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| 4:15 |
: To quote myself circa last October, “he’s mediocre”
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| 4:15 |
: Sporer and Mason gave me a lot of shit for that comment…
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| 4:16 |
: Not really saying I’m right based on his bad April, but I do still believe he’s a lot closer to bad than good.
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| 4:16 |
: Matt Davidson + Top X starting pitcher = Joey Gallo … what is X?
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| 4:16 |
: Uh, Matt Davidson+Severino for Gallo and a cut?
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| 4:16 |
: I guess my take on that is skewed
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| 4:17 |
: I have very few AVG leagues so I default to OBP/OPS
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| 4:17 |
: Maybe more like Godley
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| 4:17 |
: Peter Alonso has better numbers than Vladdy Jr. and has the longer track record to back it up, change my mind.
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| 4:18 |
: Talk to a scout. The creation myth of Vladito is at least three parts physical to one part statistics
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| 4:18 |
: I could see Alonso being the Rhys Hoskins of 2018 though.
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| 4:19 |
: Re: Conforto’s shoulder strength. Looks like he’s averaging 2 MPH less on his BBE this year as opposed to last year. Is that a a huge drop off? Thanks!
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| 4:19 |
: Not in this size of sample
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| 4:19 |
: Would you try and trade McCullers (and maybe a compliment) to acquire Nola?
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| 4:19 |
: No, prefer McCullers by a hair
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| 4:19 |
: Looking to trade some closer depth for a SP…is offering Vizcaino/Shane Greene to buy low on Taillon too low ball of an offer? How do you value closers in trades?
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| 4:20 |
: Probably, but try it anyway. It’s an extremely variable asset. I usually try to get them as throw ins, especially that level of CL
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| 4:20 |
: Are you buying into me being really good?
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| 4:20 |
: eh, I’m buying into you being a starter from now on
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| 4:20 |
: Are you a believer in Eugenio Suarez? I have him and Chapman and aren’t sure who to play/keep
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| 4:21 |
: Both should be owned in all formats
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| 4:21 |
: I’m worried about him rushing back from his thumb injury.
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| 4:21 |
: So be careful making him your only 3B if you opt to trade Chapman
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| 4:21 |
: Am I pretty good now?
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| 4:22 |
: You have a good slider. That fastball though is still woofy
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| 4:22 |
: He’s begging to join the bullpen.
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| 4:22 |
: re: conforto: he’s also not getting consistent PT as mets rotate 4 OF and 3 1b
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| 4:23 |
: That’s actually a good thing. It’s not like you get rusty from a day off every once in awhile.
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| 4:23 |
: And he needs it for healing
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| 4:23 |
: Drop Pivetta for Soroka in 10 teamer?
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| 4:23 |
: Nah.
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| 4:24 |
: Did Hader have the all-time best/most dominant MLB save last night?
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| 4:24 |
: since Randy Johnson was around
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| 4:24 |
: E Escobar or Y Solarte?
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| 4:24 |
: Solarte
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| 4:24 |
: Name 5 SPs outside the consensus top 10 that you’d want ROS (consensus: Scherzer, Kluber, Kershaw, Sale, Severino, deGrom, Stras, Thor, Verlander, Cole)
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| 4:24 |
: Hmm, need a minute
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| 4:25 |
: McCullers
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| 4:25 |
: Berrios
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| 4:25 |
: CMart
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| 4:25 |
: Morton
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| 4:26 |
: last one is hard… Greinke, Carrasco, Nola, Arrieta, and maybe Snell
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| 4:27 |
: Any concerns about Justin Upton’s early struggles? Are we just seeing regression from what was a career year in 2017?
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| 4:27 |
: He’s always been super inconsistent. Seems like normal Upton
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| 4:27 |
: Are you a fan of any/all of Jarlin Garcia, Matt Koch, or Eric Lauer going forward (in NL only league)?
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| 4:27 |
: Hard no. I do need a moment to investigate Lauer though
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| 4:27 |
: Hard no
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| 4:28 |
: Hey, Brad! Thank you for all the work you do on RG/FG. How would you define “fantasy stud”? It seems like that phrase gets bandied about like the President’s love-life at the National Press Correspondents’ Dinner, but no one seems to be able to clearly define it.
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| 4:28 |
: It’s entire subjective based on the writer. I use it to describe anybody who can carry categories or contributes above average across the board
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| 4:29 |
: 15 team: Bregman and Marco Gonzales or DeGrom and Swanson? Thanks!
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| 4:29 |
: Redraft, deGrom. keeper, Bregman.
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| 4:29 |
: Are you bogfella?
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| 4:29 |
: I am not
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| 4:29 |
: there are two of us…
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| 4:30 |
: Currently starting Cordero while I wait for Conforto to…well, be useful. Andujar in my minors. I’m a Yankees fan, but having trouble filtering out my bias that says Andujar will rake and be the starting 3B for the Yanks in perpetuity. Is it time to call him up, or wait a little while more to see how that shakes out?
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| 4:30 |
: Might as well wait, Drury is back any day now
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| 4:30 |
: When do we see V. Robles this year? Will he be in contention for ROY?
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| 4:30 |
: Probably August/September and thus, no
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| 4:30 |
: What do you see from Arrieta that makes you optimistic?
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| 4:31 |
: He seems to be trying to figure out a right-handed Dallas Keuchel thing. And he has the stuff to make it work. He’ll get good run support too.
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| 4:32 |
: Is Eaton for Morton fair? I have marte,Blackmon, Teoscar, Franchy and Margot in the outfield and need pitching help
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| 4:32 |
: Yea seems to make sense for you
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| 4:33 |
: Just a general PSA, I don’t do rankings. If I seem to be ignoring your “Please Rank Player X – Top ____ SP?” type question, it’s only because I don’t find any value in that information
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| 4:33 |
: And it kinda takes a lot of effort to compile.
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| 4:34 |
: My philosophy is to know/scout the players and then assess who best fits my needs.
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| 4:34 |
: Albies is probably the sole reason I’m sitting in third place, with slow starts from Yelich, McCutchen, Votto, Bregman, Zunino. He won’t hit 40 HRs, but do you think 25hr/20 SB with a .290/340 line is doable?
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| 4:35 |
: He has 10 HR, right? 25 is an undersell. SB might fall short.
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| 4:35 |
: Stream Caleb Smith at CIN Saturday? Overall thoughts on him?
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| 4:36 |
: Shocking volume of Caleb questions so I’ll take a moment to look deeper. I’ve been dismissive of him to date
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| 4:36 |
: Ok, so I think the thing I was missing is a good breaking ball with a fairly hefty use rate.
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| 4:36 |
: Kind of a poor man’s Corbin
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| 4:37 |
: Probably looking at 1.50 HR/9 with otherwise okay-ish numbers. Can stream at home against weak opponents. Wouldn’t own him outright in 12 team or shallower
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| 4:37 |
: Ahem, note the edit *wouldn’t*
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| 4:38 |
: Trade Olson for Santana? Feel like Santana is a buy low and high babip and strikeouts for Olson is worrisome
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| 4:38 |
: Can do, nice challenge trade with Thames sidelined
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| 4:38 |
: Sell/hold Sean Manaea?
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| 4:38 |
: Yea, one of those. If you have to ask, you should be feeling around for offers
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| 4:38 |
: Let somebody overpay if they want to, don’t force the trade
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| 4:39 |
: What are your expectations for Souza when he returns to the lineup?
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| 4:39 |
: 2017 minus 25%
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| 4:39 |
: what do you think of Newcomb, ROS and long term
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| 4:40 |
: Kinda Eduardo Rodriguez-ish. Breakout potential, a K per inning, inconsistent other stuff
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| 4:41 |
: WOuld you trade Seager for Michael Fulmer. Anthony Alford and Austin meadows in a dynasty league?
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| 4:41 |
: I would not
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| 4:41 |
: in a keep forever league, how would you value Seager right now? How much value has he lost?
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| 4:41 |
: 1%?
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| 4:41 |
: Like basically none unless you don’t have a bench or DL
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| 4:41 |
: How close really is the race between the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees? Is there any sizable advantage for any of these teams?
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| 4:42 |
: I’m not buying the Sox as anywhere close to the Yankees and Astros. I know the number machines disagree, but I think that’s a brittle roster.
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| 4:42 |
: They can absorb a lot and still be good, but those other two clubs are historically elite
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| 4:42 |
: They’re just not the same
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| 4:42 |
: is Ian Happ gonna get a chance to figure it out at Wrigley, or you think there’s a stint back in Iowa before he turns it around? Dropped Kipnis for him but I need some daily juice at 2B from that roster spot sooner rather than later.
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| 4:43 |
: Better hope it happens soon. The wind is blowing out and he hits a lot of fly balls. Could provide value even with 45% K rate
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| 4:43 |
: What stat numbers do you pay the most attention to when researching players? i.e. O-Swing, Z-Swing, BABIP etc
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| 4:44 |
: Kinda depends what’s happening on the surface. Often, I don’t need to go beyond BB, K, and SwStr rates for gauging discipline
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| 4:44 |
: at least for vets
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| 4:44 |
: If I want to examine a change, I’ll dip into the swing/take rates
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| 4:44 |
: I mostly want to know about their batted balls
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| 4:44 |
: D. Price, G. Richards, and N. Mazara for Haniger and McCullers. Which side wins?
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| 4:45 |
: Haniger and McCullers by miles
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| 4:45 |
: at least in redraft
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| 4:45 |
: Prefer it in dynasty too, but at least time is cruelly unpredictable
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| 4:45 |
: I got Stroman off waivers for literally free. Didn’t drop anyone cuz had an open spot after a 2 for 1 trade. Did I overpay?
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| 4:46 |
: I have a couple stashed shares. I’m not playing him at the moment
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| 4:46 |
: are clevinger and chase anderson sell high or holds?
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| 4:46 |
: sell the crap out of Anderson. Undecided on Clevinger
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| 4:46 |
: assess instead of assets
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| 4:46 |
: chuckle
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| 4:46 |
: assess…oooh, i word-played myself
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| 4:46 |
: I don’t know what’s happening here
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| 4:47 |
: my mom always said that you could get sick if you eat toast that’s too burnt. however, my dad always said CINDY IT DOESNT TASTE THAT BAD LET HIM EAT IT. sonny gray is toast. should i continue to take bites out of this or is it just too burnt?
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| 4:47 |
: Kind of like Stroman, I’m ok with holding shares so long as you don’t use ’em until he’s better
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| 4:47 |
: 10 team points league: would you drop Luis Castillo for Pivetta or Mikolas?
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| 4:48 |
: Strongly tempting for either. Small preference for Pivetta.
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| 4:48 |
: I think Castillo will figure it out, but you don’t have to be patient in a 10-teamer
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| 4:48 |
: In a dynasty league, should I accept a trade for Y. Moncada (only $7 next year) if I have Altuve ($36 next year)?
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| 4:48 |
: Well… depends on the quality of the trade. But yes, Altuve is a solid “alternative” to Moncada
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| 4:48 |
: Pick a side, 10 team roto keeper:
A) Rizzo and A Simmons B) Haniger, Jed Lowrie, Josh Bell |
| 4:49 |
: Ooh, tricky
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| 4:49 |
: think I’m going Haniger today
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| 4:49 |
: could seriously regret that
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| 4:49 |
: I wrote about Rizzo today actually.
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| 4:50 |
: I gotta sit on Castillo right? Just bench him until he can string together a few decent starts (assuming it is arm angle related)?
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| 4:50 |
: That’s how I’d treat it
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| 4:50 |
: Or find a buy low trade match
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| 4:50 |
: Thoughts on Matt Carpenter? Primed for a bounce back or soon to be on waiver wire?
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| 4:50 |
: Looked like a rebound to me. I bought him yesterday
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| 4:50 |
: Well…actually I bought Machado and Pollock with Carp as a throwin
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| 4:51 |
: didi ROS – top _ SS?
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| 4:51 |
: 3
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| 4:51 |
: I’m in
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| 4:51 |
: See the link I just posted…
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| 4:51 |
: Conforto too much to give up for L Castillo in keep forever?
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| 4:51 |
: Yes
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| 4:51 |
: so yes
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| 4:52 |
: I hate being right about Castillo 🙁
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| 4:52 |
: Can’t seem to find the link
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| 4:53 |
: Basically, I said random shit ensured he was a bad value at his ADP
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| 4:53 |
: And we’re living with that random shit now
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| 4:53 |
: Is it time to grab Nick Senzel?
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| 4:53 |
: Indeed
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| 4:54 |
: Am I just temporarily crushing the ball or will I compete with the likes of Didi/Correa this year for top SS honors offensively
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| 4:54 |
: Not really temporary in my opinion, but I don’t think he’ll really compete for top honors
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| 4:54 |
: my didi + throw in for his sev?
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| 4:54 |
: No
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| 4:54 |
: Your didi for his Sev and second serious piece
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| 4:54 |
: Castillo or JA Happ … H2H 7×7 with Losses + Opponent AVG
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| 4:55 |
: tbh, not sure how those added categories interact. I’d do Happ though
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| 4:55 |
: Kershaw, Gardner and Devenski for JDM, W Davis and Archer? OPS 12TM roto
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| 4:55 |
: I like the JDM side, Kershaw looks strangely mortal
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| 4:55 |
: Should I regret a sell high/buy low Taillon/Castillo switch a few weeks ago?
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| 4:55 |
: Nah. Pretty even looking to me
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| 4:55 |
: Aaron Sanchez worth holding? Walker Buehler is available
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| 4:56 |
: I think I’d keep him over Buehler
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| 4:56 |
: The lady is begging me to go place tennis since the weather is finally nice. Time to wrap it up
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| 4:56 |
: OK, what is Nomar Mazara going to end up as? I’m at a loss. Looks good, but no walks and no power.
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| 4:57 |
: I think the light eventually clicks and he’s something like 30 HR, mid-order threat
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| 4:57 |
: No idea when that happens. Looking increasingly like it’ll take awhile
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| 4:58 |
: For example, I’m still 100% on board for a Maikel Franco breakout.
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| 4:58 |
: It’ll happen barring injury
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| 4:58 |
: He might play in Asia before figuring it out though
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| 4:58 |
: Mazara could be on a frustratingly similar path
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| 4:58 |
: Why don’t you ever answer my questions Brad?
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| 4:59 |
: I get a LOT of questions. I have to skip wide swathes of them
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| 4:59 |
: Perhaps the bits I skip are not random
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| 4:59 |
: even though they feel random to me
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| 4:59 |
: Or perhaps you ask questions I can’t answer in rapid fire mode.
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| 4:59 |
: drop josh bell for carpenter? standard 5×5
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| 4:59 |
: If you need the utility
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| 5:00 |
: otherwise it’s a push imo
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| 5:00 |
: Thoughts on Fernando Romero? He just got the call.
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| 5:00 |
: He’s… interesting. The profile could lead to some big numbers, but the stats read like he’ll struggle
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| 5:00 |
: Traded Acuna for Hoskins in redraft, did I make a mistake?
|
| 5:00 |
: Seems reasonable
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| 5:01 |
: I don’t think you can really regret having Hoskins
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| 5:01 |
: unless he’s injured
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| 5:01 |
: wide swathes….that’s good.
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| 5:01 |
: Thoughts on Romero in a 10 tm keep forever? Am I dropping him after the start, or you holding?
|
| 5:01 |
: Seems too shallow to keep
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| 5:01 |
: Gotta commit to a SS, Andrelton Simmons or Chris Taylor ROS?
|
| 5:02 |
: Do based on statistical need. I think they’re deceptively close overall
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| 5:02 |
: Simmons better AVG, Taylor more power
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| 5:02 |
: Who’s the dentist?
|
| 5:02 |
: Delino DeShields
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| 5:02 |
: DDS
|
| 5:02 |
: get it?
|
| 5:02 |
: Mike Stanton flying under the radar as Biggest Disappointment. AL pitching a little better than he anticipated?
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| 5:03 |
: Man I haven’t seen Mike Stanton pitch in forever…
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| 5:03 |
: Boxberger going to hold the closer job in ARI?
|
| 5:03 |
: I think so
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| 5:03 |
: it’ll be a rocky ride from time to time
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| 5:03 |
: they stuck with Rodney though…
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| 5:03 |
: Peter Alonso is 4 years older than Vlad Jr, my dude. If they were pitchers I guess you could say that they were coparable, because age matters less, but Peter Alonso has been marginally better than Vlad Jr while also being old enough to buy alcohol since before Vlad could sign his own contracts.
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| 5:03 |
: I said they weren’t comparable…
|
| 5:04 |
: but I also said Alonso could pull a Hoskins
|
| 5:04 |
: Vladito could pull a god
|
| 5:04 |
: if we’re talking upside
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| 5:04 |
: Nola for Teoscar in a 12 team H2H. Fair?
|
| 5:04 |
: Gross
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| 5:04 |
: Need like 5 Teoscars for Nola
|
| 5:04 |
: And on this note, I bid you adieu
|
| 5:04 |
: Ohhhhh (slaps forehead)
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