Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 4/30/2019
by Brad Johnson
April 30, 2019
We had a chat. It’s complete. Read the transcript. Prospect takes abound.
| 4:01 |
: We’ll get started in a moment. Sadly, we didn’t quite finish our trade negotiations.
|
| 4:01 |
: What can we expect from Nick Senzel since he’s due for a call-up?
|
| 4:01 |
: Yep, it’s DEFCON 1 on Senzel time.
|
| 4:03 |
: He actually still seems to be shaking off rust in Triple-A so I’m surprised they’re promoting him. From what I’ve heard, the outfield experiment isn’t working
|
| 4:04 |
: As far as stats now, maybe a 105 wRC+ with some power and speed
You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
|
| 4:04 |
: Growth up to 130
|
| 4:05 |
: any thoughts on howie kendrick? he looks like an all new hitter. newfound power, newfound approach, newfound profile.
|
| 4:05 |
: I’ve long liked Kendrick, and he’s had this look about him for a few seasons. The limiting factor is health
|
| 4:05 |
: And in his case, I don’t think the body is going to cooperate unless he’s used sparingly
|
| 4:05 |
: The Nationals WILL use him sparingly which is good in a sense
|
| 4:06 |
: In short, love him when appropriately priced in DFS
|
| 4:06 |
: Kinda unusable in weekly formats. Some value as a streamer/bench stash in daily formats
|
| 4:06 |
: Jeffress’s velocity is still down. Do I still hold in case he gets the closer job or just drop for Strop?
|
| 4:06 |
: Drop for Strop
|
| 4:06 |
: That’s far too clean of a swap
|
| 4:07 |
: If the option is something like Hansel Robles or Sergio Romo, then it’s a little closer to a push
|
| 4:07 |
: Is Verdugo relevant in 12 team mixed points (5 OF/2 UTIL) while Pollock is out, or will the Dodgers find a way to not play him?
|
| 4:07 |
: I think they’ll use this as an excuse TO play him
|
| 4:07 |
: But the bulk of the reps could end up falling to Chris Taylor
|
| 4:08 |
: I’d bet on Verdugo right now
|
| 4:08 |
: Do you expect Luis Urias to be called back up any time soon? If so, how do your rate his value ROS?
|
| 4:08 |
: I’ve spent a lot of time discussing Urias today (he’s one of the guys involved in the dynasty discussion mentioned in the intro above the chat box)
|
| 4:08 |
: He’s crushing Triple-A pitching in the friendliest environment for hitters. With Tatis IL-bound, Urias may be the call
|
| 4:09 |
: You should chat with Sporer about CWalker v Muncy. Also – with the landscape of 1b changing, where does Matt Olson fit in when he returns?
|
| 4:10 |
: Muncy or Kike at 2b? I have both but need to cut one. I thought muncy would be better than this.
|
| 4:10 |
: Muncy is playing well…
|
| 4:10 |
: 30 HR pace, 121 wRC+, solid run production
|
| 4:11 |
: And I’m still happily taking Muncy over Walker
|
| 4:11 |
: I think the better discussion is Walker or Aguilar
|
| 4:12 |
: They’re both serious whiff rate guys
|
| 4:12 |
: Muncy makes a nice amount of contact and happens to take K’s by working counts
|
| 4:12 |
: Disregarding position, cut one of Pinder, Gardner or Vogelbach?
|
| 4:13 |
: Depends on your time horizon. Gardner will eventually lose regular playing time, but I like him more than Pinder right this moment.
|
| 4:13 |
: Do we see Pache or Waters this season if Inciarte doesn’t hit better?
|
| 4:14 |
: I could be wrong, but neither of those players looks to be within a year of the majors. Pache’s defense gives him a nice floor though
|
| 4:14 |
: I don’t recall if either is on the 40-man offhand, that would help
|
| 4:14 |
: Would you give Tim Anderson plus an SP4 type for Kris Bryant in a 12 team H2H?
|
| 4:14 |
: Instantly. I’m not a believer in Anderson’s hot start
|
| 4:14 |
: Do you think Rodgers gets called up before the ASB?
|
| 4:14 |
: At this rate, yes.
|
| 4:15 |
: He’s finally putting up some top prospect quality numbers
|
| 4:15 |
: Contact rate is way up
|
| 4:15 |
: And power too
|
| 4:15 |
: But, he’s in one of the friendliest minor league venues with a juiced baseball
|
| 4:16 |
: Is Nick Pivetta worth keeping in an NA slot, or should I go grab a more conventional prospect? Has been good in AAA
|
| 4:16 |
: It’s a matter of preference and alternative
|
| 4:16 |
: if you can stash a guy like Yordan Alvarez, I would prefer that
|
| 4:17 |
: but if it’s a longer term prospect, then hold Pivetta and pick up the prospect later
|
| 4:17 |
: Is Eduardo Rodriguez droppable in a 13 team league?
|
| 4:17 |
: No, he’s pitching well
|
| 4:18 |
: Something we all need to get used to is that good pitchers are going to have their share of 9.00 ERA games
|
| 4:18 |
: I keep reading about all the good on Niko Goodrum…does he have 20/20 in him?
|
| 4:18 |
: Home runs, yes.
|
| 4:18 |
: I think 20 SBs is a big stretch
|
| 4:18 |
: 10 to 15 maybe (and that’s with him already at 3)
|
| 4:19 |
: Dejong: hold or sell high?
|
| 4:19 |
: I’d sell, especially in a OBP format. For AVG, I think you’ll find the offers aren’t actually better than him
|
| 4:19 |
: So do you think Yordan Alvarez may arrive by next month?
|
| 4:20 |
: He’s a top prospect repeating Triple-A with a 200 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 88 PA. Plus nice BB and K rates.
|
| 4:20 |
: The only thing working against him is the Astros deeeeep depth chart
|
| 4:20 |
: That said, he should be ahead of Kyle Tucker now
|
| 4:21 |
: So yea, I think he’s on the cusp of forcing a call up
|
| 4:21 |
: Am I missing something with Kris Bryant? Is last year making people impatient, or is me discounting last year making me too patient?
|
| 4:21 |
: It’s the combination of last season plus a slow start this year
|
| 4:22 |
: Tommy La Stella already has 23 home runs
|
| 4:22 |
: Bryant only has 3
|
| 4:22 |
: It’s not a great look. That said, I’m basically on board.
|
| 4:22 |
: Trade Bieber for 2B Moustakas or stick with my current Cano/Odor combo of terror?
|
| 4:23 |
: Moose is same asset class so stick with what you’ve got
|
| 4:23 |
: Is it worth dealing M. Chapman plus, for Bryant, in a deep 10-tm forever dynasty? Starting to wonder how close in value they are.
|
| 4:23 |
: Chapman is better
|
| 4:23 |
: And I just got done “liking” Bryant
|
| 4:24 |
: How worried should I be about Hiura’s terrible BB/K rates in AAA? What kind of line do you think he could produce right now with a starting role in the bigs?
|
| 4:24 |
: Not sure about the exact line, but he’d probably be an above average hitter
|
| 4:24 |
: So you’re in on Yordan Alvarez?
|
| 4:24 |
: Yes.
|
| 4:24 |
: If Martin Perez shoves against Houston, is it time to take a long, deep look at him?
|
| 4:24 |
: We can look at guys at any time
|
| 4:25 |
: Perez is certainly better than he’s been, but I’m not seeing a must-own guy for 12-team mixed
|
| 4:25 |
: What do you expect out of Travis Shaw at this point?
|
| 4:25 |
: 115 wRC+, similar output to 2018 pace
|
| 4:26 |
: French Onion or Wonton? Choose your soup
|
| 4:26 |
: A good french onion is a thing of beauty
|
| 4:26 |
: Wonton soup is always salt water with dough balls
|
| 4:26 |
: What’s your take on Travis Shaw’s struggles?
|
| 4:27 |
: More specifically, he still has elevated SwStr% and K% without any change to his batted ball quality of plate discipline
|
| 4:28 |
: So, without doing more research, I would guess his quality of opponent is higher than normal.
|
| 4:28 |
: And he’s still terrible vs LHP
|
| 4:28 |
: Hey Brad, which side would you take – Flaherty for C.Archer and Cano? (14 tm, 5×5, 12 Keepers)
|
| 4:28 |
: Flaherty
|
| 4:28 |
: Brad, I’m bleeding at SS. I’d like to trade Chris Paddack for a SS – who do you think I can target for him?
|
| 4:28 |
: Bogaerts?
|
| 4:29 |
: Mondesi owner might be edgy
|
| 4:29 |
: Seager or Gleyber maybe
|
| 4:29 |
: I’m looking to aim high on name brand but perhaps take back a slow-ish starter
|
| 4:29 |
: Do you like Y.Alvarez more than M.Olsen now for just this season?
|
| 4:30 |
: No, only because the Astros depth pile creates problems. Olson will play when he’s back, although hamate injuries can linger
|
| 4:30 |
: The game in KC tonight is not going to happen right?
|
| 4:30 |
: Not based on the report I just saw
|
| 4:30 |
: Should I be starting Omar Narvaez everyday at this point? It’s either him or Wilson Ramos.
|
| 4:30 |
: Pretty much
|
| 4:30 |
: what do you expect from Canning RoS?
|
| 4:30 |
: Let’s get through one start first
|
| 4:31 |
: We don’t even know for sure if this is more than a spot appearance
|
| 4:31 |
: Hi Brad. In a vacuum, who has the higher ceiling/floor long term -> Kiura or Y Alvarez? This is for beyond this year, of course. Thanks.
|
| 4:32 |
: Personally, I like Alvarez more. I’d also reach out to Shelly, Hulet, and McDongenhagen for opinions.
|
| 4:32 |
: Do you expect Alex Gordon to be an RBI leader at the end of the season like he is now
|
| 4:32 |
: Definitely
|
| 4:32 |
: Should you rather fight one horse sized duck or 100 duck sized horses?
|
| 4:32 |
: Obviously the smaller horses. I just need to get some body armor for my Achilles and I’m golden
|
| 4:33 |
: One peck from a horse-size duck is game over
|
| 4:33 |
: What do you expect form Elvis Andrus for the rest of the season?
|
| 4:33 |
: Something like his 2017 numbers
|
| 4:34 |
: (Forgot to mention: 12-team) Need to fill an OF spot in my H2H 6×6 (OBP & QS added). My Hyun-Jin Ryu for his Domingo Santana seem fair?
|
| 4:34 |
: Sure!
|
| 4:34 |
: What’s the most important skill for a league commissioner to have?
|
| 4:34 |
: Availability
|
| 4:34 |
: patience
|
| 4:34 |
: a long fuse
|
| 4:34 |
: Have you customized your dashboard for player stats? If so, what statistics do you prioritize when doing a quick analysis of a hitter or pitcher?
|
| 4:35 |
: I have. If I remember, I’ll do something on my Patreon about it. It’s best shown via video.
|
| 4:35 |
: What’s your feel for Rengifo?
|
| 4:35 |
: For fantasy purposes, an upgrade on Fletcher
|
| 4:35 |
: (when he plays)
|
| 4:35 |
: I think Fletcher is maybe a little better in a real world sense
|
| 4:35 |
: And I love the Marco Scutaro act he’s putting on
|
| 4:36 |
: What’s up with Altuve ? Really drafted him for batting average Is there a reason to believe that he is selling out for more power and the avg won’t rebound?
|
| 4:37 |
: Nope. “What’s up” is he has a 27.3% HR/FB instead of his career 8.5% HR/FB
|
| 4:37 |
: Relatedly, he has a .225 BABIP
|
| 4:37 |
: Those numbers will trade places, and he’ll hit around .300.
|
| 4:37 |
: Wonton soup = dirty water butter soup, convince me otherwise
|
| 4:37 |
: This isn’t debate club
|
| 4:38 |
: I don’t have to argue positions I don’t believe
|
| 4:38 |
: 20-team 5×5. Tony Wolters (coors stretch coming up) or Danny Jansen?
|
| 4:38 |
: Full season, Jansen
|
| 4:38 |
: If you’ve rostered both and just want a short term play, Wolters.
|
| 4:38 |
: Would you deal T. Anderson to get J. Baez? 5×5 OBP
|
| 4:38 |
: In a heartbeat
|
| 4:38 |
: I’d trade 4 Andersons for 1 Baez
|
| 4:39 |
: Worth stashing Jesus Luzardo in a H2H 16-Team? I’m 4-0, and trying to think ahead.
|
| 4:39 |
: I suspect there are better stashes out there.
|
| 4:39 |
: Zac Gallen may be closer to the majors for example.
|
| 4:39 |
: Which side do you prefer, DeGrom and Rizzo or Buehler and JoRam?
|
| 4:39 |
: Ooh that one’s sufficiently tough!
|
| 4:40 |
:
Which?
deGrom + Rizzo (59.6% | 62 votes)
Buehler + JoRam (40.3% | 42 votes)
Total Votes: 104
|
| 4:40 |
: Drop Schwarber for Nate Lowe?
|
| 4:40 |
: I think you can
|
| 4:40 |
: It’s a bold move
|
| 4:40 |
: I’m assuming this is a shallow format
|
| 4:40 |
: Pick one Rendon fill-in: H. Dozier, E. Escobar, Y. Diaz, M. Franco
|
| 4:40 |
: Any but Franco
|
| 4:42 |
: What are your thoughts on Tyler Beede getting the call?
|
| 4:42 |
: Very excited!
|
| 4:43 |
: He crushed the minors at a time when the juiced ball ruined pitchers’ lives
|
| 4:43 |
: are you worried about machado at all? think his HR totals will be lower than were used to because of the park he’s in?
|
| 4:43 |
: No, Petco isn’t really that HR suppressant anymore
|
| 4:43 |
: But I think it plays that way a little early in the season
|
| 4:43 |
: I’ve certainly seen some off the bat HRs land on the warning track there
|
| 4:44 |
: I’m not worried about Machado
|
| 4:44 |
: Just traded for him in an 18-teamer – Moose + Wil Myers
|
| 4:44 |
: (and now I have to start Stevie Wilkerson!)
|
| 4:45 |
: Do you have any insight into Matt Chapman’s huge contact improvement? Is he just hot to start the season or has he changed in some fundamental way?
|
| 4:45 |
: Some of it is soft opponents. Some of it is he’s really friggin good
|
| 4:45 |
: What’s the biggest mistake people make at this point in the season?
|
| 4:45 |
: They give up
|
| 4:45 |
: As a Mondesi owner, there is no way in hell I’d trade him for Paddack
|
| 4:46 |
: Josh Naylor has obviously been creating some hype, but what do you make of his batted ball profile? Seems very subpar
|
| 4:46 |
: The stat page doesn’t stand out, I’ll grant you that
|
| 4:46 |
: The scouting report sure does
|
| 4:46 |
: Lindor for Jose Ramirez. Which side you like more?
|
| 4:46 |
: Lindor
|
| 4:46 |
: Beede or Canning ros?
|
| 4:46 |
: Beede
|
| 4:46 |
: they’re both potential difference makers
|
| 4:47 |
: Aaron Nola’s FIP matches his ERA (don’t look it’s ugly). Prime time in a dynasty league to buy low right? I’m looking to make a run next season and am offering Grandal and Strahm
|
| 4:47 |
: The issue is his command. He’s missing his spots. Seems to indicate a mechanical issue or injury.
|
| 4:47 |
: If it’s not a health problem, then I think he’ll figure it out
|
| 4:48 |
: FAAB% for Cano? 12-team pts
|
| 4:48 |
: very low
|
| 4:48 |
: Replacement level is pretty high at 2B
|
| 4:48 |
: Is it still too early to relegate Kikuchi to a #4-5 starter with low K% and few QS due to innings limits (including that whole usage as an opener every few weeks)?
|
| 4:48 |
: No, I’m not impressed for fantasy purposes
|
| 4:48 |
: how bad should I feel for trading Andrus for C.Taylor before the season started in a dynasty(I was short of OF)
|
| 4:48 |
: 🙁
|
| 4:49 |
: TB @ KC PPD
|
| 4:49 |
: 12 tm h2h do you prefer narvaez or r.chirinos ROS?
|
| 4:49 |
: Narvaez
|
| 4:49 |
: What is up with Justin Turner, who now hits singles and only singles? Is there any chance of a rebound here?
|
| 4:49 |
: Yea, he’s fine
|
| 4:49 |
: With Starling Marte reinstated today and back in the lineup, who should I cut to make room for him off the IL: Marcus Semien or Billy Hamilton?
|
| 4:49 |
: Ham
|
| 4:50 |
: Going back to Turner, there isn’t much in the peripherals to incite panic. If he was a nobody, I’d be screaming BUY.
|
| 4:50 |
: In a 12 tm OBP/QS league im really needing pitching. Thoughts on mondesi for taillon and franmil
|
| 4:50 |
: I like it
|
| 4:50 |
: It’s a bold gamble as Mondesi and Franmil have massive variance
|
| 4:50 |
: (and Taillon is a pitcher)
|
| 4:51 |
: Do you own any Julio Rodriquez shares? Is there a case for NOT trying to pick him up this early in dynasty?
|
| 4:51 |
: I missed out sadly
|
| 4:51 |
: Should be owned in deep formats
|
| 4:52 |
: I have to wrap up on time again this week, sorry folks. We’ll be shutting down promptly at 5:00
|
| 4:52 |
: Flaherty or Paddack + Boyd?
|
| 4:53 |
: Flaherty
|
| 4:53 |
: Just read up on your Beede love – him or Eickhoff in a vacuum?
|
| 4:53 |
: Beede
|
| 4:53 |
: any thoughts on this ty france kid in san diego? was absolutely killing the ball in the minors
|
| 4:53 |
: Yea, somewhere…
|
| 4:54 |
: Here it is, gimme a minute before clicking, I need to turn off the paywall.
|
| 4:54 |
: Tatis injury could be a status upgrade
|
| 4:54 |
: Is there any site with data on the the strength of schedule presented on a montly basis? I’m already preparing for the play-off
|
| 4:55 |
: That’s pretty premature
|
| 4:55 |
: Fangraph pages sometimes – actually quite often – forward to very dangerous looking spam pages. Is it just me or Fangraph is aware of this issue?
|
| 4:55 |
: We are aware
|
| 4:55 |
: Unfortunately, it’s just what happens if you use ads on your site
|
| 4:56 |
: A side effect of google’s monopoly
|
| 4:56 |
: I think a membership fixes the issue
|
| 4:56 |
: I don’t have any problems
|
| 4:56 |
: I would like to take a moment to thank Berrios, Glasnow and Stroman for waiting until I _finally_ cut bait to start performing like I always hoped they would
|
| 4:56 |
: Haha
|
| 4:56 |
: Prefer J. Polanco Or semien the rest of the way?
|
| 4:56 |
: Polanco, barely
|
| 4:56 |
: Soroka upside: #2 fantasy SP?
|
| 4:56 |
: Sure, as upside
|
| 4:56 |
: Andrus or Rosario ROS?
|
| 4:57 |
: Eddie > Elvis > Amed
|
| 4:57 |
: Which awful C do you prefer: Zunino, Vasquez, Alfaro, Phegley
|
| 4:57 |
: Zunino or Alfaro
|
| 4:57 |
: Thoughts on Luis Robert? Could we be seeing a meteoric rise like Juan Soto? He’s been a beast.
|
| 4:57 |
: I don’t think so
|
| 4:57 |
: It’s all .553 BABIP and .467 ISO
|
| 4:58 |
: he just need a promotion from High-A
|
| 4:58 |
: Putting in a vote for the dashboard video on Patreon, FWIW
|
| 4:58 |
: Been meaning to do that for a while.
|
| 4:58 |
: Hot take: MacKenzie Gore ends up being a better SP than both Casey Mize AND Forrest Whitley
|
| 4:58 |
: Luke warm at best
|
| 4:59 |
: should i start hunter dozier vs snell today?
|
| 4:59 |
: No, they’re already postponed
|
| 4:59 |
: What would you bid on Beede in a NL only, $100 FAAB cap? catch is over $10, and the contract gets locked in for next season as well (or you spend at least $50 in real money to buy him out).
|
| 4:59 |
: I think $9 is reasonable.
|
| 4:59 |
: The red Sox stink. That is sll
|
| 4:59 |
: strahm & devers for suarez in a dynasty league, which side wins?
|
| 5:00 |
: Playing with different time horizons here.
|
| 5:00 |
: Suarez wins now, Devers a few years from now.
|
| 5:00 |
: And that’s a wrap. See y’all next week.
|
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam