Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 4/30/2019
by Brad Johnson
April 30, 2019
We had a chat. It’s complete. Read the transcript. Prospect takes abound.
| 4:01 |
: We’ll get started in a moment. Sadly, we didn’t quite finish our trade negotiations. |
| 4:01 |
: What can we expect from Nick Senzel since he’s due for a call-up?
|
| 4:01 |
: Yep, it’s DEFCON 1 on Senzel time.
|
| 4:03 |
: He actually still seems to be shaking off rust in Triple-A so I’m surprised they’re promoting him. From what I’ve heard, the outfield experiment isn’t working
|
| 4:04 |
: As far as stats now, maybe a 105 wRC+ with some power and speed |
| 4:04 |
: Growth up to 130
|
| 4:05 |
: any thoughts on howie kendrick? he looks like an all new hitter. newfound power, newfound approach, newfound profile.
|
| 4:05 |
: I’ve long liked Kendrick, and he’s had this look about him for a few seasons. The limiting factor is health
|
| 4:05 |
: And in his case, I don’t think the body is going to cooperate unless he’s used sparingly
|
| 4:05 |
: The Nationals WILL use him sparingly which is good in a sense |
| 4:06 |
: In short, love him when appropriately priced in DFS
|
| 4:06 |
: Kinda unusable in weekly formats. Some value as a streamer/bench stash in daily formats
|
| 4:06 |
: Jeffress’s velocity is still down. Do I still hold in case he gets the closer job or just drop for Strop?
|
| 4:06 |
: Drop for Strop
|
| 4:06 |
: That’s far too clean of a swap
|
| 4:07 |
: If the option is something like Hansel Robles or Sergio Romo, then it’s a little closer to a push |
| 4:07 |
: Is Verdugo relevant in 12 team mixed points (5 OF/2 UTIL) while Pollock is out, or will the Dodgers find a way to not play him?
|
| 4:07 |
: I think they’ll use this as an excuse TO play him
|
| 4:07 |
: But the bulk of the reps could end up falling to Chris Taylor
|
| 4:08 |
: I’d bet on Verdugo right now
|
| 4:08 |
: Do you expect Luis Urias to be called back up any time soon? If so, how do your rate his value ROS?
|
| 4:08 |
: I’ve spent a lot of time discussing Urias today (he’s one of the guys involved in the dynasty discussion mentioned in the intro above the chat box) |
| 4:08 |
: He’s crushing Triple-A pitching in the friendliest environment for hitters. With Tatis IL-bound, Urias may be the call
|
| 4:09 |
: You should chat with Sporer about CWalker v Muncy. Also – with the landscape of 1b changing, where does Matt Olson fit in when he returns?
|
| 4:10 |
: Muncy or Kike at 2b? I have both but need to cut one. I thought muncy would be better than this.
|
| 4:10 |
: Muncy is playing well…
|
| 4:10 |
: 30 HR pace, 121 wRC+, solid run production
|
| 4:11 |
: And I’m still happily taking Muncy over Walker |
| 4:11 |
: I think the better discussion is Walker or Aguilar
|
| 4:12 |
: They’re both serious whiff rate guys
|
| 4:12 |
: Muncy makes a nice amount of contact and happens to take K’s by working counts
|
| 4:12 |
: Disregarding position, cut one of Pinder, Gardner or Vogelbach?
|
| 4:13 |
: Depends on your time horizon. Gardner will eventually lose regular playing time, but I like him more than Pinder right this moment.
|
| 4:13 |
: Do we see Pache or Waters this season if Inciarte doesn’t hit better? |
| 4:14 |
: I could be wrong, but neither of those players looks to be within a year of the majors. Pache’s defense gives him a nice floor though
|
| 4:14 |
: I don’t recall if either is on the 40-man offhand, that would help
|
| 4:14 |
: Would you give Tim Anderson plus an SP4 type for Kris Bryant in a 12 team H2H?
|
| 4:14 |
: Instantly. I’m not a believer in Anderson’s hot start
|
| 4:14 |
: Do you think Rodgers gets called up before the ASB?
|
| 4:14 |
: At this rate, yes. |
| 4:15 |
: He’s finally putting up some top prospect quality numbers
|
| 4:15 |
: Contact rate is way up
|
| 4:15 |
: And power too
|
| 4:15 |
: But, he’s in one of the friendliest minor league venues with a juiced baseball
|
| 4:16 |
: Is Nick Pivetta worth keeping in an NA slot, or should I go grab a more conventional prospect? Has been good in AAA
|
| 4:16 |
: It’s a matter of preference and alternative |
| 4:16 |
: if you can stash a guy like Yordan Alvarez, I would prefer that
|
| 4:17 |
: but if it’s a longer term prospect, then hold Pivetta and pick up the prospect later
|
| 4:17 |
: Is Eduardo Rodriguez droppable in a 13 team league?
|
| 4:17 |
: No, he’s pitching well
|
| 4:18 |
: Something we all need to get used to is that good pitchers are going to have their share of 9.00 ERA games
|
| 4:18 |
: I keep reading about all the good on Niko Goodrum…does he have 20/20 in him? |
| 4:18 |
: Home runs, yes.
|
| 4:18 |
: I think 20 SBs is a big stretch
|
| 4:18 |
: 10 to 15 maybe (and that’s with him already at 3)
|
| 4:19 |
: Dejong: hold or sell high?
|
| 4:19 |
: I’d sell, especially in a OBP format. For AVG, I think you’ll find the offers aren’t actually better than him
|
| 4:19 |
: So do you think Yordan Alvarez may arrive by next month?
|
| 4:20 |
: He’s a top prospect repeating Triple-A with a 200 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 88 PA. Plus nice BB and K rates.
|
| 4:20 |
: The only thing working against him is the Astros deeeeep depth chart
|
| 4:20 |
: That said, he should be ahead of Kyle Tucker now
|
| 4:21 |
: So yea, I think he’s on the cusp of forcing a call up
|
| 4:21 |
: Am I missing something with Kris Bryant? Is last year making people impatient, or is me discounting last year making me too patient?
|
| 4:21 |
: It’s the combination of last season plus a slow start this year
|
| 4:22 |
: Tommy La Stella already has 23 home runs
|
| 4:22 |
: Bryant only has 3
|
| 4:22 |
: It’s not a great look. That said, I’m basically on board.
|
| 4:22 |
: Trade Bieber for 2B Moustakas or stick with my current Cano/Odor combo of terror?
|
| 4:23 |
: Moose is same asset class so stick with what you’ve got
|
| 4:23 |
: Is it worth dealing M. Chapman plus, for Bryant, in a deep 10-tm forever dynasty? Starting to wonder how close in value they are.
|
| 4:23 |
: Chapman is better
|
| 4:23 |
: And I just got done “liking” Bryant
|
| 4:24 |
: How worried should I be about Hiura’s terrible BB/K rates in AAA? What kind of line do you think he could produce right now with a starting role in the bigs?
|
| 4:24 |
: Not sure about the exact line, but he’d probably be an above average hitter
|
| 4:24 |
: So you’re in on Yordan Alvarez?
|
| 4:24 |
: Yes.
|
| 4:24 |
: If Martin Perez shoves against Houston, is it time to take a long, deep look at him?
|
| 4:24 |
: We can look at guys at any time
|
| 4:25 |
: Perez is certainly better than he’s been, but I’m not seeing a must-own guy for 12-team mixed
|
| 4:25 |
: What do you expect out of Travis Shaw at this point?
|
| 4:25 |
: 115 wRC+, similar output to 2018 pace
|
| 4:26 |
: French Onion or Wonton? Choose your soup
|
| 4:26 |
: A good french onion is a thing of beauty
|
| 4:26 |
: Wonton soup is always salt water with dough balls
|
| 4:26 |
: What’s your take on Travis Shaw’s struggles?
|
| 4:27 |
: More specifically, he still has elevated SwStr% and K% without any change to his batted ball quality of plate discipline
|
| 4:28 |
: So, without doing more research, I would guess his quality of opponent is higher than normal.
|
| 4:28 |
: And he’s still terrible vs LHP
|
| 4:28 |
: Hey Brad, which side would you take – Flaherty for C.Archer and Cano? (14 tm, 5×5, 12 Keepers)
|
| 4:28 |
: Flaherty
|
| 4:28 |
: Brad, I’m bleeding at SS. I’d like to trade Chris Paddack for a SS – who do you think I can target for him?
|
| 4:28 |
: Bogaerts?
|
| 4:29 |
: Mondesi owner might be edgy
|
| 4:29 |
: Seager or Gleyber maybe
|
| 4:29 |
: I’m looking to aim high on name brand but perhaps take back a slow-ish starter
|
| 4:29 |
: Do you like Y.Alvarez more than M.Olsen now for just this season?
|
| 4:30 |
: No, only because the Astros depth pile creates problems. Olson will play when he’s back, although hamate injuries can linger
|
| 4:30 |
: The game in KC tonight is not going to happen right?
|
| 4:30 |
: Not based on the report I just saw
|
| 4:30 |
: Should I be starting Omar Narvaez everyday at this point? It’s either him or Wilson Ramos.
|
| 4:30 |
: Pretty much
|
| 4:30 |
: what do you expect from Canning RoS?
|
| 4:30 |
: Let’s get through one start first
|
| 4:31 |
: We don’t even know for sure if this is more than a spot appearance
|
| 4:31 |
: Hi Brad. In a vacuum, who has the higher ceiling/floor long term -> Kiura or Y Alvarez? This is for beyond this year, of course. Thanks.
|
| 4:32 |
: Personally, I like Alvarez more. I’d also reach out to Shelly, Hulet, and McDongenhagen for opinions.
|
| 4:32 |
: Do you expect Alex Gordon to be an RBI leader at the end of the season like he is now
|
| 4:32 |
: Definitely
|
| 4:32 |
: Should you rather fight one horse sized duck or 100 duck sized horses?
|
| 4:32 |
: Obviously the smaller horses. I just need to get some body armor for my Achilles and I’m golden
|
| 4:33 |
: One peck from a horse-size duck is game over
|
| 4:33 |
: What do you expect form Elvis Andrus for the rest of the season?
|
| 4:33 |
: Something like his 2017 numbers
|
| 4:34 |
: (Forgot to mention: 12-team) Need to fill an OF spot in my H2H 6×6 (OBP & QS added). My Hyun-Jin Ryu for his Domingo Santana seem fair?
|
| 4:34 |
: Sure!
|
| 4:34 |
: What’s the most important skill for a league commissioner to have?
|
| 4:34 |
: Availability
|
| 4:34 |
: patience
|
| 4:34 |
: a long fuse
|
| 4:34 |
: Have you customized your dashboard for player stats? If so, what statistics do you prioritize when doing a quick analysis of a hitter or pitcher?
|
| 4:35 |
: I have. If I remember, I’ll do something on my Patreon about it. It’s best shown via video.
|
| 4:35 |
: What’s your feel for Rengifo?
|
| 4:35 |
: For fantasy purposes, an upgrade on Fletcher
|
| 4:35 |
: (when he plays)
|
| 4:35 |
: I think Fletcher is maybe a little better in a real world sense
|
| 4:35 |
: And I love the Marco Scutaro act he’s putting on
|
| 4:36 |
: What’s up with Altuve ? Really drafted him for batting average Is there a reason to believe that he is selling out for more power and the avg won’t rebound?
|
| 4:37 |
: Nope. “What’s up” is he has a 27.3% HR/FB instead of his career 8.5% HR/FB
|
| 4:37 |
: Relatedly, he has a .225 BABIP
|
| 4:37 |
: Those numbers will trade places, and he’ll hit around .300.
|
| 4:37 |
: Wonton soup = dirty water butter soup, convince me otherwise
|
| 4:37 |
: This isn’t debate club
|
| 4:38 |
: I don’t have to argue positions I don’t believe
|
| 4:38 |
: 20-team 5×5. Tony Wolters (coors stretch coming up) or Danny Jansen?
|
| 4:38 |
: Full season, Jansen
|
| 4:38 |
: If you’ve rostered both and just want a short term play, Wolters.
|
| 4:38 |
: Would you deal T. Anderson to get J. Baez? 5×5 OBP
|
| 4:38 |
: In a heartbeat
|
| 4:38 |
: I’d trade 4 Andersons for 1 Baez
|
| 4:39 |
: Worth stashing Jesus Luzardo in a H2H 16-Team? I’m 4-0, and trying to think ahead.
|
| 4:39 |
: I suspect there are better stashes out there.
|
| 4:39 |
: Zac Gallen may be closer to the majors for example.
|
| 4:39 |
: Which side do you prefer, DeGrom and Rizzo or Buehler and JoRam?
|
| 4:39 |
: Ooh that one’s sufficiently tough!
|
| 4:40 |
:
Which?
deGrom + Rizzo (59.6% | 62 votes)
Buehler + JoRam (40.3% | 42 votes)
Total Votes: 104
|
| 4:40 |
: Drop Schwarber for Nate Lowe?
|
| 4:40 |
: I think you can
|
| 4:40 |
: It’s a bold move
|
| 4:40 |
: I’m assuming this is a shallow format
|
| 4:40 |
: Pick one Rendon fill-in: H. Dozier, E. Escobar, Y. Diaz, M. Franco
|
| 4:40 |
: Any but Franco
|
| 4:42 |
: What are your thoughts on Tyler Beede getting the call?
|
| 4:42 |
: Very excited!
|
| 4:43 |
: He crushed the minors at a time when the juiced ball ruined pitchers’ lives
|
| 4:43 |
: are you worried about machado at all? think his HR totals will be lower than were used to because of the park he’s in?
|
| 4:43 |
: No, Petco isn’t really that HR suppressant anymore
|
| 4:43 |
: But I think it plays that way a little early in the season
|
| 4:43 |
: I’ve certainly seen some off the bat HRs land on the warning track there
|
| 4:44 |
: I’m not worried about Machado
|
| 4:44 |
: Just traded for him in an 18-teamer – Moose + Wil Myers
|
| 4:44 |
: (and now I have to start Stevie Wilkerson!)
|
| 4:45 |
: Do you have any insight into Matt Chapman’s huge contact improvement? Is he just hot to start the season or has he changed in some fundamental way?
|
| 4:45 |
: Some of it is soft opponents. Some of it is he’s really friggin good
|
| 4:45 |
: What’s the biggest mistake people make at this point in the season?
|
| 4:45 |
: They give up
|
| 4:45 |
: As a Mondesi owner, there is no way in hell I’d trade him for Paddack
|
| 4:46 |
: Josh Naylor has obviously been creating some hype, but what do you make of his batted ball profile? Seems very subpar
|
| 4:46 |
: The stat page doesn’t stand out, I’ll grant you that
|
| 4:46 |
: The scouting report sure does
|
| 4:46 |
: Lindor for Jose Ramirez. Which side you like more?
|
| 4:46 |
: Lindor
|
| 4:46 |
: Beede or Canning ros?
|
| 4:46 |
: Beede
|
| 4:46 |
: they’re both potential difference makers
|
| 4:47 |
: Aaron Nola’s FIP matches his ERA (don’t look it’s ugly). Prime time in a dynasty league to buy low right? I’m looking to make a run next season and am offering Grandal and Strahm
|
| 4:47 |
: The issue is his command. He’s missing his spots. Seems to indicate a mechanical issue or injury.
|
| 4:47 |
: If it’s not a health problem, then I think he’ll figure it out
|
| 4:48 |
: FAAB% for Cano? 12-team pts
|
| 4:48 |
: very low
|
| 4:48 |
: Replacement level is pretty high at 2B
|
| 4:48 |
: Is it still too early to relegate Kikuchi to a #4-5 starter with low K% and few QS due to innings limits (including that whole usage as an opener every few weeks)?
|
| 4:48 |
: No, I’m not impressed for fantasy purposes
|
| 4:48 |
: how bad should I feel for trading Andrus for C.Taylor before the season started in a dynasty(I was short of OF)
|
| 4:48 |
: 🙁
|
| 4:49 |
: TB @ KC PPD
|
| 4:49 |
: 12 tm h2h do you prefer narvaez or r.chirinos ROS?
|
| 4:49 |
: Narvaez
|
| 4:49 |
: What is up with Justin Turner, who now hits singles and only singles? Is there any chance of a rebound here?
|
| 4:49 |
: Yea, he’s fine
|
| 4:49 |
: With Starling Marte reinstated today and back in the lineup, who should I cut to make room for him off the IL: Marcus Semien or Billy Hamilton?
|
| 4:49 |
: Ham
|
| 4:50 |
: Going back to Turner, there isn’t much in the peripherals to incite panic. If he was a nobody, I’d be screaming BUY.
|
| 4:50 |
: In a 12 tm OBP/QS league im really needing pitching. Thoughts on mondesi for taillon and franmil
|
| 4:50 |
: I like it
|
| 4:50 |
: It’s a bold gamble as Mondesi and Franmil have massive variance
|
| 4:50 |
: (and Taillon is a pitcher)
|
| 4:51 |
: Do you own any Julio Rodriquez shares? Is there a case for NOT trying to pick him up this early in dynasty?
|
| 4:51 |
: I missed out sadly
|
| 4:51 |
: Should be owned in deep formats
|
| 4:52 |
: I have to wrap up on time again this week, sorry folks. We’ll be shutting down promptly at 5:00
|
| 4:52 |
: Flaherty or Paddack + Boyd?
|
| 4:53 |
: Flaherty
|
| 4:53 |
: Just read up on your Beede love – him or Eickhoff in a vacuum?
|
| 4:53 |
: Beede
|
| 4:53 |
: any thoughts on this ty france kid in san diego? was absolutely killing the ball in the minors
|
| 4:53 |
: Yea, somewhere…
|
| 4:54 |
: Here it is, gimme a minute before clicking, I need to turn off the paywall.
|
| 4:54 |
: Tatis injury could be a status upgrade
|
| 4:54 |
: Is there any site with data on the the strength of schedule presented on a montly basis? I’m already preparing for the play-off
|
| 4:55 |
: That’s pretty premature
|
| 4:55 |
: Fangraph pages sometimes – actually quite often – forward to very dangerous looking spam pages. Is it just me or Fangraph is aware of this issue?
|
| 4:55 |
: We are aware
|
| 4:55 |
: Unfortunately, it’s just what happens if you use ads on your site
|
| 4:56 |
: A side effect of google’s monopoly
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| 4:56 |
: I think a membership fixes the issue
|
| 4:56 |
: I don’t have any problems
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| 4:56 |
: I would like to take a moment to thank Berrios, Glasnow and Stroman for waiting until I _finally_ cut bait to start performing like I always hoped they would
|
| 4:56 |
: Haha
|
| 4:56 |
: Prefer J. Polanco Or semien the rest of the way?
|
| 4:56 |
: Polanco, barely
|
| 4:56 |
: Soroka upside: #2 fantasy SP?
|
| 4:56 |
: Sure, as upside
|
| 4:56 |
: Andrus or Rosario ROS?
|
| 4:57 |
: Eddie > Elvis > Amed
|
| 4:57 |
: Which awful C do you prefer: Zunino, Vasquez, Alfaro, Phegley
|
| 4:57 |
: Zunino or Alfaro
|
| 4:57 |
: Thoughts on Luis Robert? Could we be seeing a meteoric rise like Juan Soto? He’s been a beast.
|
| 4:57 |
: I don’t think so
|
| 4:57 |
: It’s all .553 BABIP and .467 ISO
|
| 4:58 |
: he just need a promotion from High-A
|
| 4:58 |
: Putting in a vote for the dashboard video on Patreon, FWIW
|
| 4:58 |
: Been meaning to do that for a while.
|
| 4:58 |
: Hot take: MacKenzie Gore ends up being a better SP than both Casey Mize AND Forrest Whitley
|
| 4:58 |
: Luke warm at best
|
| 4:59 |
: should i start hunter dozier vs snell today?
|
| 4:59 |
: No, they’re already postponed
|
| 4:59 |
: What would you bid on Beede in a NL only, $100 FAAB cap? catch is over $10, and the contract gets locked in for next season as well (or you spend at least $50 in real money to buy him out).
|
| 4:59 |
: I think $9 is reasonable.
|
| 4:59 |
: The red Sox stink. That is sll
|
| 4:59 |
: strahm & devers for suarez in a dynasty league, which side wins?
|
| 5:00 |
: Playing with different time horizons here.
|
| 5:00 |
: Suarez wins now, Devers a few years from now.
|
| 5:00 |
: And that’s a wrap. See y’all next week.
|
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam