Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 4/2/2019

Brad Johnson: We’ll kick off in a few minutes. Let’s talk some actual baseball.

Brad Johnson: PS I love the Socrates Brito acquisition for the Blue Jays. That’s probably who the Giants should have nabbed instead of paying for Kevin Pillar.

Brad Johnson: Ok, I’m back. Headphones on, 90s playlist selected, let’s roll.

Mmm Mmm Good: Peter Alonso is a Top-5 1B.  Fight me.

Brad Johnson: Goldy, Votto, Hoskins, Freeman, Rizzo in no particular order

Brad Johnson: I win

Brad Johnson: Belly, Carp, Olson pretty easy picks too if you allow that Carp shouldn’t be playing a non-1B locale.

Brad Johnson: But, your point stands. It feels like there’s a case he could be next best after the biggest names. Around Aguilar, Santana, Abreu, White (gasp), and others

Brad Johnson: We’ll see how it shakes out.

zurzles: Best Murphy replacement in standard 5×5: Asdrubal, Wong, McNeil, Hampson (once eligible)? Not hunting any specific categories

Brad Johnson: I’d lean boring Asdrubal without knowing more

Brad Johnson: You’re getting a lot of mid-lineup PA there. The others are part timers with hope for an expanding role. I’m not in on some wacky Wong breakout.

Brad Johnson: Not yet anyway.

April Showers: After recent moves, do any of these OFs interest you in 12 tm leagues: Tauchman, Alford, McKinney, Pillar?

Brad Johnson: I have my eye on Tauchman, but I think Gardner and Frazier are the biggest OF beneficiaries. He’ll really need to make a lot of a few opportunities. So I’d look at him in deeper formats more.

Brad Johnson: McKinney is the closest to relevant

Brad Johnson: And I always try a few Pillar shares in April. He seems to start fast before fading.

Brad Johnson: But these are emergency patches, not true 12-team rosterable players.

Don Juan: Frankie Montas or Eduardo Rodriquez?

Brad Johnson: ERod, definitely.

April Showers: Ketel Marte was dropped in my 12 tm OPS league. Are you a believer in his improvements? 2B/SS/OF eligibility would be clutch on the bench.

Brad Johnson: Big believer, must own

Bill: Did Sandy Alcantara’s performance change your outlook for him this season? More than NL-only add?

Brad Johnson: No. What’s the best case scenario? He’s an above average pitcher, has to face 4 really good NLE lineups all the time, and has no run support?

Joe joe: 10tm H2H 5×5 dynasty have two offers. PCorbin for my Abreu and Cole&CBurnes for my Arenado. Staff is Paddack, Snell, Buehler, Carrasco, Musgrove, Glasnow, Ray and Pablo Lopez. Have Goldie, Manny, Muncy and Donaldson as other corners. Do either of these?

Brad Johnson: I like the Corbin swap a lot

Brad Johnson: No way I’m touching the Arenado concept

Brad Johnson: That’s at least one Gerrit Cole short.

Mmm Mmm Good: Astudillo is a Top-10 catcher.  Fight me.

Brad Johnson: How are we defining this. He’s not top 10 at actually being a catcher. As a fantasy eligible C, I’m not inclined to stand in your way (i.e. I mostly agree once he gets the opportunities)

OF depth: How worthy is Pillar as an NL only waiver wire add?  He’s at least starting everyday in CF for the Giants, correct?

Brad Johnson: Pretty useful accumulator

Brad Johnson: Could even be a near-top of the order guy

Daro: Would you drop Cesar Hernandez for Yoan Moncada? H2H 12 teams. C Hernandez is my starter

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t personally, but that’s probably a push

JGC: Hi Brad! Should I cut Brian Dozier? I have Muncy and Carpenter and want to chase upside pitching. Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Treat it like a trade. If you think the pitcher you’re getting is better than Dozier, you can do it. I’m expecting a pretty sharp rebound though.

Yandy Man: I’ve searched all over but can’t find any news of the Rays working to improve Yandy’s swing/launch angle since the trade. Are you aware of anything? They have to be trying, right?

Brad Johnson: No, they specifically acquired him to mash fly ball pitchers. Yandy has a successful approach, and it’s not obvious anything can be done to change it. With most hitters, you’re trying to shift the angle upward slight, not go full out Trevor Story.

Brad Johnson: Elvis Andrus and Ender Inciarte are pretty good examples

kobrien: I know Giolito has done this to us before, but worth a speculative grab. Not starting this week, but better to be a week early, right?

Brad Johnson: I can’t say I’m especially excited so I wouldn’t be rushing is shallower formats.

Mmm Mmm Good: The Orioles are a Top-3 team.  Well….no.  They’re not.  Nevermind.

Catcher in the Rye: Cervelli is doing not much for the Buccos.  What are your thoughts on Elias Diaz getting some major AB’s once activated of the IL?

Brad Johnson: Let’s calm the hell down people

Big Tuna: What do you make of the Padres OF situation? Reyes has huge upside and is off to a slot start. Margot has never quite lived up to the hype. Renfroe and Franchy are waiting in the wings. How do you think this ends up?

Brad Johnson: Reyes is going to be given every opportunity to run with the job.

Orbit: Need a MI streamer for tonight in an AVG and OPS league. Flores, Pinder, Ahmed, Galvis, Starlin, or someone else not listed?

Brad Johnson: Gimme a cleanup hitter – Castro or Flores

3 Lindors Down: Since Tatis Jr was on the opening day roster, will he be next in line for an early extension?

Brad Johnson: Next up are Tatis, Vladito, and Bichette in some order

Brad Johnson: of the youngin’s

Carl: OK to cut Hunter Greene in all but the deepest leagues?

Brad Johnson: *nods

reardon: If you’re sifting through early season numbers to find out if someone has made a change in skill level, what do you look at? For pitchers: whiffs, velocity, movement? For hitters: exit velocity, swing rates, pull %?

Brad Johnson: Pretty much nothing to look at for hitters this early besides visually scouting ab’s

Brad Johnson: Pitchers you’re looking for velocity and pitch usage for the most part

Brad Johnson: Whiffs aren’t very informative unless you also scout the start

Minor leaguers: Are they any current minor leaguers you see having a fantasy impact in a deep NL only league?  Senzel is too easy, dig much deeper please – thanks.

Brad Johnson: Fun question, but I’ll need to think about it a moment

Brad Johnson: Ok I have a few

Brad Johnson: Rough start to that exercise, the entire NLE is barren besides maybe Roman Quinn if 3 OFers hit the IL ahead of him

Brad Johnson: Mark Zagunis is fringe interesting in a part time role

Brad Johnson: Cole Tucker and Ke’Bryan Hayes look like they’ll be ready to contribute this year.

Brad Johnson: Hayes is definitely head and shoulders above Kang/Moran, but they might serve to block him

Brad Johnson: Tucker has no such impediment, but he’s less likely to force the issue

Brad Johnson: Ildemaro Vargas is one of the best/readiest Fringe Five guys

Brad Johnson: That Alex Verdugo guy. Have you heard of him?

Brad Johnson: Connor Joe probably doesn’t count. But Connor Joe! Maybe Breyvic Valera if he could hit his way out of a wet paper bag

Snakebite: Christian Walker for real?  Will playing time continue enough at 1B?

Brad Johnson: He’s going to start against all LHP. I dunno if “real” is good descriptor. He does in fact exist. I also don’t see much talent. Classic Quad-A profile.

yojiveself: I have miggy as by 1st baseman.  its kinda boring to own him but i’d be crazy to cut him for Voit, right?  I have Voit as my Util and could sub in Muncy

Brad Johnson: I’m confused. I don’t know why I picked this one because I don’t know how to respond to you having and not having Voit.

Brad Johnson: Seems like they should all co-exist nicely

Bobo: Astudillo hasn’t played much. Nellie Cruz seems to clog DH. Better option in deep league: Barnhart, Zunino, C Kelly, Mejia. Please rank.

Brad Johnson: Barnhart, Zunino/Astudillo, others

Brad Johnson: Be patient, he’ll hit too much to sit.

Canned Peanuts: What kind of production will Robles need to have in the first month to move out of the 9 hole (assuming no injuries)?

Brad Johnson: .270/.345/.425?

Brad Johnson: Another “please be patient” scenario

Josh: How do you value some low cost prospects (like Whitley, Senzel, Bichette, Hiura, etc) in ottoneu?

Brad Johnson: If I have them, I’m asking for a top tier stud straight up.

Brad Johnson: Like a $40-60 player guy with the full loan

Brad Johnson: If the other guy has ’em, I don’t want them

Brad Johnson: That’s just me

Matt W: Major exhale on Lindor. Can I survive with Semien and Adames in a points league until he returns?

Brad Johnson: Semien, yes. Adames… maybe not.

Alex: When do you think the A’s will call up Luzardo, and what do you think his 2019 impact will be?

Brad Johnson: Relatively early, above average SP

Dwr: DJ LeMahieu or Brandon Lowe in 12-team standard?

Brad Johnson: I REALLY like DJLM in Yankee Stadium

Brad Johnson: I like the adjustments he made last year in preparation for free agency

Brad Johnson: I don’t really think Lowe will make enough contact to remain in the lineup

Brad Johnson: But I could be wrong on that one

vft: based on your extensive medical knowledge, Brad Johnson MD, you think andujar is worth hanging onto in a 10 teamer with no DL slots left?

Brad Johnson: Nope

Brad Johnson: Format is so shallow

Lance Mannion: Hi Brad

Brad Johnson: Hi Lance

Lance Mannion: Whoops I hit send before I entered my question, Pick up Bird, Frazier ( Clint) or Josh Reddick while Giancarlo is out. Thanks

Brad Johnson: I’d start with Bird

Anonymous: Buxton didn’t start the year 0-for-10! In fact, he even has some doubles! #ItsHappening

Anonymous: Most of chat pronounced Brandon Lowe’s name incorrectly in their heads just now.

Brad Johnson: Oh yea, I did too

Brad Johnson: I also do this thing where I intentionally mispronounce named in my head for no damned reason. Then I occasionally same them out loud like an idiot

Brad Johnson: I think the most obnoxious (to others) is Jam-EEZE Shy-elds

Brad Johnson: (because, why?)

Josh: Loaisiga a must stream tomorrow v DET, right?

Brad Johnson: Must is a strong word. In 12-team mixed and deeper, it’s a solid play

Cards bullpen: I managed to snag all three of the potential closers in Hicks, Miller, & Reyes.  Miller looks awful, as he also looked similarly awful all spring.  Does Hicks become the go to, or does Reyes sneak in a handful of save chances?

Brad Johnson: Everything I’ve heard says they want Reyes to start

Brad Johnson: Which means they’ll avoid giving him saves

Brad Johnson: Closer is STICKY

Brad Johnson: So, Hicks looks like the guy you want

Travis: Have you ever held yourself accountable for specific forecasts you make? I’m curious what probability you imply when you say something like “X will be better than Y this year.”  Not everything would need to meet this standard, but how often do you think you are spot on when you make testable predictions?

Brad Johnson: I think if you go through everything I say, you’ll notice I’m extremely wishywashy. It’s rare for me to definitively stat things.

Brad Johnson: Everything exists with a range of outcomes, I try to 1. correctly identify the range and 2. highlight the most common of them

Brad Johnson: Adalberto Mondesi comes with a massive range of outcomes for example. The most common is something like 2018 Tim Anderson plus 5-10 SB

Brad Johnson: But there’s also the outcome where he’s so terrible he’s sent back to Triple-A. And the one where he goes full Javy Baez but with 65 SB

Brad Johnson: Anyway, I’m wandering, the point is a forecast covers a large area so it’s hard to hold ones self accountable

Sam: Jake Bauers got dropped in a deeper OBP league – drop Grichuk or A. Jones to pick him up?

Brad Johnson: Jones is droppable for him

Bob Villar: Would you trade Shane Bieber for Jesus Aguilar?  Currently starting Bird and Y. Alonso at 1B/CI

Brad Johnson: I’d be into that

Bring back DeSpaniel Hair: Shallow points league, have to pick between Cano, DJLehm, and Moncada as a DMurph fill in. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: I’d go Cano for sure

Boys of Summer: what’s your feeling on Taylor Rogers chances to close?

Brad Johnson: Pretty low.

Brad Johnson: But he might pick up a quarter of the saves as one of the soggier parts of the committee

Brad Johnson: Seems they’ll burn through May earlier in games while hoping to build bigger leads

Gorky: Maikel Franco:  is he Encarnacioning?

Brad Johnson: Far too early to say. That sure would feel good to finally get that one right.

Hans: Is Austin Meadows a 10-team 5 OF bat?

Brad Johnson: Streamer or guy you’re constantly looking to upgrade

bread man: better bread Naan or dinner rolls

Brad Johnson: Naan you fool

Brad Johnson: https://open.spotify.com/track/5s2iMB6rN20tCQMmtuzuNa?si=rwWS0w86S4ax7…

Brad Johnson: I’m sure this song is “about” something, but I like to assume it’s just that James Hetfield really likes bread

Linus: Cut or hold Daniel Murphy in 10-team mixed?

Brad Johnson: Do you have IL spots? Then keep. No? Then move on. It’s shallow, you’ll survive.

Marc: Do you have a strategy for making two for one trades?  I’m in a somewhat deeper league and I’m struggling to clear a roster spot to stream pitchers because all my players are above replacement level

Brad Johnson: Ah, my main strategy (in auctions) is to run out of money early to ensure my last spot is a cut

Brad Johnson: You’re best off looking in the premium retail space

Brad Johnson: Your Corbin and Abreu for Nola for example

Josh: O/U 15 saves this year for Jimenez?  Wondering if I should drop Diego Castillo for him. Currently own Diaz, Givens and Swarzak in 12 team mixer.

Brad Johnson: I’ve got over 15 for both Jimenez and Castillo. I’d keep Diego for now.

Brad Johnson: Swarzak might be a better cut. Pretty decent chance he’s wrecked

Ken: would you trade Benintendi for Lindor? h2h keeper.

Brad Johnson: I think so. The keeper consideration is relevant

Nolan: Traded Rafael Devers for Roberto Osuna in 10-team where my Pete Alonso, Luke Voit, and Maikel Franco waiver acquisitions overflowed my CI slot.  Good enough move?

Brad Johnson: Very much so

Brad Johnson: Even though I like Devers as a breakout candidate, that doesn’t mean 2019 is his big year. And if it is, Osuna probably still paces the production

Dwr: Someone panic dropped E-Rod. Do I drop Matz or Caleb S?

Brad Johnson: All same asset class to me

Gregg: Something tells me that Kolten Wong is pulling a Jose Ramirez.  You join hands with me on this?

Brad Johnson: Uh, you want to explain this “something”

Brad Johnson: Nothing is telling me anything

Kenny: Is it too early to panic about…Darvish, Strahm, R. Iglesias

Brad Johnson: Strahm was BABIPd to death

Brad Johnson: I went back and watched some of it

Brad Johnson: I missed Darvish’s start. Not too concerned about Iglesias yet either.

DatDudeJG: I’ve got a fan crush on Willians Austilldo.  I can’t let him go but he isn’t playing enough.  I picked up Austin Barnes last night off waivers.  I know its the right thing to drop him, but I just can’t bring myself to do it.  What would you do with Willians???

Brad Johnson: I’m stashing him. But I knew this would happen so I only have him in leagues I can be patient

John’s Paunch: Domingo Santana is a 2nd round pick next year.  If I’m wrong you give me $20

Brad Johnson: Good try

Jkim: SMAALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT: Joe Kelly’s problems so far are that he’s not locating his fastball high.

I think until he fixes this eeeeveryone should stay away from him

Brad Johnson: I never understood why the Dodgers signed him in the first place

Brad Johnson: He’s a middle reliever

Brad Johnson: The kind that takes a split contract every year

Brad Johnson: I’m baffled

Reason to Believe: Another question — dynasty — 12 team, OBP league.  Better backup — Marte or A. Rosario?

Brad Johnson: Marte

Alfaro Sprouts: 20+ HRs for Jorge Alfaro?  Top 5 catcher?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take 20 HR. Not quite top 5

Brad Johnson: Should play enough to be useful

Brad Johnson: One thing that really scares me is that he’s needed over-.400 BABIPs to be relevant in the past

Blue Jeans & Beer: Deep mixed. Hampson or Lourdes for MI? Also chances Swarzak closes?

Brad Johnson: I’ll gamble Hampson

Brad Johnson: Swarzak is interesting

Brad Johnson: I think the chance is pretty low – in the 15-40% range

Brad Johnson: but… if he’s closing, he’s probably top 15-20

Brad Johnson: (of closers)

Jkim: They saw his 11IP where he located his FB high and he completely stopped throwing his slider and relied on like a 60/30/10 mix of FF/CB/CH, thought they could replicate his success.

So far he kept a similar pitch mix, but locating them completely different to disastrous results

Brad Johnson: (Kelly)

Brad Johnson: Right. This is why this class of reliever doesn’t get guaranteed deals

Brad Johnson: They have hot streaks where they hit spots

Brad Johnson: And then they go cold and you have to cut them or live through pain

Dan: Mike Trout was dropped in one league.. can we drug test this person?

Brad Johnson: Grounds for immediate expulsion

Dan: 12 team roto keeper.. trade Castellanos and Conforto for Bregman… Which side?

Brad Johnson: Bregman

Orange WHIPs: Garage Inc. is all covers so Hetfield really likes songs ABOUT bread.

Brad Johnson: I somehow never noticed this

Brad Johnson: Oh, going back a step, I’m not convinced anyone is going to employ Castellanos next year.

Brad Johnson: There are like 4 teams that might be able to use him and would even bother

sasha: in a league that counts holds and also saves, do i drop any of these guys when aj minter comes back? may/neris/rondon. thanks!

Brad Johnson: Any

Anduno: Lamb, Longoria or Candelario as a replacement?

Brad Johnson: Candelario or Longoria as of today. Lamb’s timeshare isn’t friendly

Anduno: Trade Eaton for Muncy in an OBP league?

Brad Johnson: Only if you need Muncy’s eligibilities

Guest: Frankie Montas new splitter anything to get excited about?

Brad Johnson: Not excited, but it’s interesting. Splitters tend to be extremely volatile.

PD: Sell high on Julio Urias or hold?

Brad Johnson: As long as you’re actually selling high, go ahead

Dwr: My dad drafted Laureano over Winker against my advice. Will he end up telling me “I told you so”?

Brad Johnson: 60/40 in your favor

Brad Johnson: I like that Laureano will play daily

Jacko: Bregman for Jram one year

Brad Johnson: About as close to a push as it gets. I’d take JRam

Brad Johnson: Basically revisiting round 1

HJ: Which Astro do you want – Altuve or Bregman?

Brad Johnson: I like Altuve more for 2019

Brad Johnson: It’s very close

Lance Mannion: Hi I’ve one more for you please, drop Greg Anderson and stash Senzel Thanks again

Brad Johnson: Tim? Tyler? I’ll assume it’s Tim

Brad Johnson: If he’s just sitting on your bench, you can stash Senzel. I don’t think you HAVE to stash Senzel though. Decent chance this turns into another lost or tepid season for him

Mario: How do you think my pitching staff will fare this season?

Brad Johnson: Luigi’s a true ace, but Toad and Blue Yoshi get lit

RJ: Hi, I’m here for the Brad chat

Brad Johnson: A brad is a type of nail

Orange WHIPs: Alfaro or Beef Wellington in an OBP 5×5?

Brad Johnson: Alfaro (shudders)

Alex: Eloy or Benintendi ….keeper league???

Brad Johnson: no cost, Benintendi please

Tom : Thoughts on Yandy Diaz as a mixed leaguer at this point?

Brad Johnson: Back end guy. I picked him up a couple days ago, and he’s on my cut list for tomorrow

Guest: Pivetta breakout or HR dumpster fire

Brad Johnson: Can’t it be both?

Brad Johnson: I worry he’s the new Ricky Nolasco

Brad Johnson: But I also wonder if Nolasco could have solved his shit if he had all this data available

Kevin: Is Brian Dozier a good enough replacement for Murphy? I’m concerned about last season, plus his inability to hit before the ASG…

Brad Johnson: Yes

Josh: Sit F Peralta tomorrow @ CIN?

Brad Johnson: I’m not in on Peralta yet

Brad Johnson: I’ll be too late to get shares if he’s good

Brad Johnson: And yea, I’d sit him in homer heaven

Tommy La Sort of: I’ve got an offer sitting there…dude offered me Rizzo, Blackmon and Clevinger for Sherzer, Bregman and Torres. I’m putting my faith in you. Would you accept?

Brad Johnson: Nope

Brad Johnson: It’s a fine offer but too complicated. If you have specific reasons to want it like too much MI depth and not enough OF/1B, then it could be a yes

Iggy Pop’s Raw Power: Wander Franco is worth having in a keep 6 forever/no cost league…right?  I feel like I can wait another year or two for him to arrive.  But the other owners are making me wonder (wander?) if I’m crazy because I don’t understand why the #2 prospect was available in the first place.

Brad Johnson: That’s aggressive. Give it a try and count it as a learning experience.

Me: Drop Kikuchi in a shallow 12 with robust waiver? Or Bieber?

Brad Johnson: Kikuchi is dropable

Kevin: Is Winkler ever going to play?? I spent so much money in the draft on him…

Brad Johnson: Dan Winkler? Or Jesse Winker?

Anonymous: Do we have to sit Strahm vs. the Cardinals? That was heartbreaking

Brad Johnson: Not a bad idea, it’s a strong lineup

Alec: Hey brad, is Rosell Herrera any good? It is refreshing to see 17 at bats with 0 ks

Brad Johnson: Punchless utility bat

Nerlin: Jeff McNeil gonna be 10-team MI-relevant this year?

Brad Johnson: Doubt it. Fringe ownable when starting

ChicosBailBonds: Rank Kang, Longoria, Pence and Andrelton Simmons as far as who you’d drop first in a 5×5 head to head categories league

Brad Johnson: Pence is first cut

sykklone: Is Merrill Kelly worth picking up?

Brad Johnson: In most formats, he’s worth a try

Brad Johnson: Time to wrap it up

I suck at fantasy: Keeper league. Competitive window opens up next year. Flirting with top this year but not really expecting to win it all this season. Should I unload Scherzer this year or keep him for next years run? Money not an issue

Brad Johnson: Gotta constantly explore your options

Brad Johnson: You’re looking for something like Nolan Arenado, not a goodie bag of shiny stuff

Brad Johnson: If you can convert Scherzer into a younger, less risky asset, you should

Dave: In one catcher leagues, what level of production out of a second catcher would make it worthwhile to roster said second catcher to plug-in on the regular days off for your first catcher?

Brad Johnson: Would need to be pretty magnificent

Brad Johnson: Like if you could force Willians to play whenever your starter is off

war: would you rather get drilled in the ribs by a prime Randy Johnson or get punched in the face by Roughned Odor?

Brad Johnson: Easily prefer to be punched

Brad Johnson: Johnson might kill me

Henry: Give us your boons and banes for the 2019 season (players who will outperform and underperform expectations).

Brad Johnson: Too late! Ask me earlier next time.

Biff: Kike Hernandez – you in or out for this year only (shallow leagues)?

Brad Johnson: Toeing the line. Mostly as a streamer in shallow

Alec: Is christian walker legit or just a lefty masher? I am a concerned Lamb owner

Brad Johnson: Barely a lefty masher. Mostly just platooning with Lamb because he’s so platoobish

Brad Johnson: ok, I’m throwing in the towel. Good game.

Magnum pi’s mustache: Who are two names who aren’t closing now but will be soon.

Brad Johnson: Joe Jimenez and Kyle Zimmer

Bill: Kershaw gonna beast or bust when he comes back?

Brad Johnson: Beast?

Shin-Soo Choo: Am I stuck in weak side of a timeshare? Still relevant for 12 team 5 OF?

Brad Johnson: I think you’ll play