Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3/20/2018
by Brad Johnson
March 20, 2018
Here’s today’s transcript. Enjoy your drafts everyone!
| 3:59 |
: Hey folks, let’s getting rolling
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| 3:59 |
: I promise to be at my grumpiest, grouchiest self today
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| 3:59 |
: or similar
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| 4:00 |
: I just read your “Am I crazy” post. Interesting. I’m more intrigued by a comment you left – do you still suggest going heavy on pitching in a 5×5 H2H weekly league, where your record at the end of the week is based on categories won (i.e. 7-3)? How much would you spend on pitching in that type of league?
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| 4:00 |
: That was Justin’s post. But I did comment.
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| 4:01 |
: There’s no one size fits all approach, but it can be very profitable to dominate the pitching categories if the rest of your league is using a 70/30 pitching split.
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| 4:02 |
: This is one of those zig/zag scenarios. It works if you aren’t using the same strategy as everyone else.
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| 4:02 |
: And on that note, I actually need to briefly pause. My dog says he needs my attention for something.
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| 4:05 |
: How much of a boost in OBP leagues do you think Gallo batting 2nd would be?
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| 4:05 |
: Insignificant. A dollar or three
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| 4:06 |
: I guess if you were projecting him to bat eighth all year, maybe it’s substantial. I assumed he’d have a major role.
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| 4:06 |
: Thoughts on Schwarber? This doesn’t seem like the standard BSOHL nonsense…
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| 4:07 |
: It’s very reassuring to see him with a healthier body. I don’t know that we should expect him to be a substantially different as a hitter.
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| 4:07 |
: It definitely helps that he’s… streamlined. Should get him in more games and defensively replaced less often
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| 4:08 |
: I’m pretty solidly into “Let someone else use a high draft pick on Ohtani” territory, even in keepers. Is this a mistake?
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| 4:08 |
: Not at all.
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| 4:08 |
: The only thing to watch out for is a leaguewide overreaction to Spring Training
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| 4:09 |
: Have the #3 pick in 6×6 with OBP added. Every SGP calculation/online calculator says Stanton/Arenado/Harper are massivley more valuable than Trea Turner, who I kind of still want to take. Bad process?
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| 4:09 |
: Yes. Adding OBP crushes Turner’s value. Or more accurately, it seriously pumps up Stanton et al
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| 4:09 |
: Michael Wacha: hold or stream in 10-team?
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| 4:09 |
: stream or less
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| 4:10 |
: Yo! No queue was available for questioning earlier. I’m seeing Harper falling out of the top 3 outfielders in some rankings. Are people just betting on injury here?
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| 4:10 |
: I don’t know.
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| 4:11 |
: I can see preferring a number of players to Harper though. It’s Trout, Altuve, then about 10 or 12 guys who are really similar. Harper is probably the most dynamic of the remaining options, but he probably has a lower floor too.
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| 4:11 |
: Blackmon is a higher floor, lower ceiling alternative, for example
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| 4:12 |
: Best auction value at 2b this year?
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| 4:12 |
: Cesar Hernandez isn’t even picked in many 12-team leagues. He’s kind of like a better version of Jorge Polanco
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| 4:13 |
: hint hint in case you need to replace Polanco
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| 4:13 |
: Picking up all the shares of Delino Deshields I can. RIDING THE HYPE TRAIN
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| 4:13 |
: Do it.
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| 4:13 |
: Cost aside, who do you like in a keeper: Devers or Acuna? The guy who’s kinda done it or the guy who could do it?
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| 4:13 |
: Leaning slightly towards Acuna these days
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| 4:13 |
: Gerrit Cole: beast or bust this season?
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| 4:13 |
: Neither?
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| 4:13 |
: closer to good than bad
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| 4:14 |
: Final keeper in a 7×7 roto league (standard 5×5 plus OPS and K’s) — Schoop or Pham?
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| 4:14 |
: Pham. Monster 7 category ability
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| 4:14 |
: For those of us drafting _right now_, you would discount Justin Turner’s PAs to ____, and knock ____ off his .SLG projection?
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| 4:15 |
: from 550 to 475 PA, minus 35 SLG
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| 4:15 |
: Are Forsythe or Kike draftable in 12 team leagues that still haven’t drafted yet?
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| 4:15 |
: Forsythe can be a last round pick if you want some 2B/3B flex
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| 4:15 |
: Odds Willson Contreras finishes higher than Gary Sanchez as the #1 fantasy catcher this season?
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| 4:16 |
: 25%?
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| 4:16 |
: I figure if they’re both healthy, Sanchez is almost guaranteed to outperform him
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| 4:16 |
: But I was thinking of your comment where you said you go pitching heavy in H2h.
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| 4:17 |
: Yes, I tend to find value in that approach.
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| 4:17 |
: But I’ve been running the same strategy against the same group of guys for years
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| 4:18 |
: They always let me dominate the pitching pool because they think it’s too risky
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| 4:18 |
: If 3 of them were to suddenly compete with me for those same SP, then I’d need to change my approach
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| 4:19 |
: Also for the 99% of you who didn’t read the comment in question, this is in reference to a 6×6 league with K/BB in which I’m about to keep $219 of my $260 budget in the form of 7 pitchers
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| 4:20 |
: Kershaw, Sale, Max, Kluber, Carrasco, Godley, and Morton
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| 4:20 |
: Matt Chapman or Jake Lamb in an OBP league? Power is my main focus
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| 4:20 |
: Ah, that’s a push
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| 4:20 |
: Given their expected costs, the value favors Chapman
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| 4:21 |
: Where do you stand on the Greinke dead arm/toying with the media debate?
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| 4:21 |
: I think I was the first person to say we’ve seen this from him before
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| 4:21 |
: so…
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| 4:21 |
: How good do you expect Ozzie Albies to be this year and going foward?
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| 4:21 |
: Quite good. But from a fantasy perspective, he might outperform Cesar Hernandez by like 10%
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| 4:21 |
: 2B is SOOOO deep
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| 4:22 |
: If you own Albies, it’s better to sell him at over-hyped prices
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| 4:22 |
: the production is replaceable.
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| 4:22 |
: Bullish or bearish on a Mike Clevinger breakout this season?
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| 4:22 |
: slightly bullish
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| 4:23 |
: when command is the thing holding a guy back, it’s a little safer to actually expect modest improvement
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| 4:23 |
: Is it crazy to be thinking of drafting Acuna late in a 10 team H2H points league with only 3 OF slots?
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| 4:23 |
: Nah. The hype will make him a valuable trade asset at the very least
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| 4:23 |
: What are the weirdest league settings you’ve played in that you actually enjoyed?
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| 4:23 |
: I played a linear weights-ish league on Yahoo before Ottoneu FGpts was a thing
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| 4:24 |
: was formed of readers from The Book blog
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| 4:24 |
: great group, but it fell apart a few years back
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| 4:24 |
: Last keeper in a 5×5 keep forever with no restrictions league. Yelich, Rendon, Devers, Pham, or Carrasco. Who ya got?
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| 4:24 |
: That’s a difficult group.
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| 4:25 |
: I’m guessing you can only keep like 3 or 4 guys or else these wouldn’t be your bubble picks
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| 4:25 |
: That probably crosses out the long term play with Devers
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| 4:25 |
: Carrasco is injury prone
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| 4:25 |
: mostly just because he’s a pitcher
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| 4:26 |
: Yelich, Rendon, and Pham are studs. Pham is the most physically talented, but he’s also the oldest and has the eye issue
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| 4:27 |
: I think I lean Rendon
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| 4:27 |
: That’s a damned hard choice though.
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| 4:27 |
: I am for baseball players getting paid more, especially minor leaguers, but I also think that Scott Boras is a boring windbag
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| 4:27 |
: presented without comment
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| 4:27 |
: Hey Brad, what do you expect from JDM in BOS this year? Will the Green Monster suppress his power to LF?
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| 4:27 |
: I don’t see any reason to expect a change. He’ll lose a few and he’ll gain a few
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| 4:28 |
: David Dahl gonna open the season with the Rockies or do you see him getting sent down?
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| 4:28 |
: Getting a lot of questions about Dahl
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| 4:28 |
: I don’t have any special insight into this situation. But I expect him to go to Triple-A initially.
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| 4:28 |
: What is BSOHL?
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| 4:29 |
: Best Shape of His Life
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| 4:29 |
: Duda has basically same Depth Chart projections as Bird, Smoak, and Alonso…and is free. But are the projections not seeing something that makes those other 3 so much more expensive in auctions?
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| 4:30 |
: Yea. The trio are all ascendant. Bird is young/upsidey. Both Smoak and Alonso made major adjustments to their game so the projections are 2/3rds on mostly irrelevant data
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| 4:30 |
: Duda didn’t change, and he’s going to an ugly park for power
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| 4:30 |
: Nothing wrong with rostering him if you need to make a budget play, but the other 3 are way better plays
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| 4:31 |
: Got a request for my closers. What is the value of Kimbrel, Eddy Diaz, Morrow, and Doolittle. It is a sv/H league so they do get punished there. I don’t have any glaring holes and I could move one without a problem. is it worth it? should I stay pat or do you think I could make a deal to acquire Acuna from him?
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| 4:31 |
: If your rival puts Acuna on the table, take it. Especially if it’s any kind of keeper format.
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| 4:32 |
: If it’s a redraft, you could try Doolittle or Morrow for Acuna, but I might just wait until he’s feeling some pain
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| 4:32 |
: re: schwarbs. cc had an insane body makeover one year. didn’t really translate to the field.
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| 4:32 |
: Not a fair comp
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| 4:32 |
: Dylan Bundy slider for real? I think I wanna buy it. Looked awesome in person a couple of weeks ago?
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| 4:32 |
: Yea, it’s fantastic
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| 4:32 |
: the rest of the repertoire…
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| 4:32 |
: well, it’s not fantastic
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| 4:33 |
: More 2018 home runs — Matt Olson or Hoskins, and how many each?
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| 4:33 |
: I’ll go Hoskins
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| 4:33 |
: 35 and 31?
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| 4:33 |
: In shallow leagues with only 3 OF, does that lower the value of the first rounders like Bryce, Mookie and Blackmon?
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| 4:33 |
: No
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| 4:33 |
: But it does lower everybody after JDM/Bellinger/Judge range
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| 4:34 |
: You go from a bunch of $30 guys to $1 REALLY fast
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| 4:34 |
: Or if you’re using rounds, you just focus on other positions
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| 4:34 |
: In 16TM 5×5 roto, hitting is solid, but my pitchers are lacking. Can I get by with SPs led by Archer, Arrieta, and Richards, or should I go RP heavy and hope I win ratios and SV?
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| 4:35 |
: You still have time to spike some cheap breakouts. Either via waivers or buying early
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| 4:35 |
: Try that path before going with relievers. The RP strategy almost never works. It’s an emergency plan
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| 4:35 |
: Dominic Leone a good spec right now or does Gregerson have the job?
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| 4:36 |
: I think Gregerson basically has the job if healthy, but Leone is still a good speculative pick
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| 4:36 |
: What are the chances Dahl makes the MLB roster out of ST? If not, stash him or Calhoun?
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| 4:36 |
: stash Calhoun
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| 4:36 |
: The Rangers just want to get a look at Drew Robinson. As soon as somebody is hurt, we’ll see Calhoun.
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| 4:37 |
: 14 team H2H points dynasty. My league WAY overvalues starting pitching, so my strategy this year was to go heavy on hitting, get 1 ace and then take a bunch of chances and stream starts. Just lost Jahrel Cotton, who should I look to replace him? Low ownership guys, like 10% owned or less
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| 4:37 |
: Kyle Gibson still looks like late season Kyle Gibson to me
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| 4:38 |
: People seem to like Pivetta. I’m not quite on board yet
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| 4:38 |
: Brandon McCarthy is legit good when he’s healthy
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| 4:38 |
: O/U 15 HR, 20 SB and .340 OBP for Acuna this year?
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| 4:38 |
: Over Under Over
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| 4:38 |
: re: pitching heavy in H2H. would you consider taking Scherzer ahead of Goldschmidt in the first round of a keeper? have both Hoskins and Kluber already so either one is a cherry on top pick to either give the rotation or offense a leg up
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| 4:38 |
: I’d definitely consider it
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| 4:39 |
: Not positive I’d do it, but don’t dismiss it out of hand. It’s a riskier strategy
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| 4:39 |
: In a 6×6 (OBP and Avg), where would Suzuki/Flowers rank among catchers if they were one person?
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| 4:39 |
: fringe top 10
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| 4:39 |
: I believe in the Suzuki breakout. Not as thrilled about Flowers
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| 4:40 |
: Dropped Lucas Duda for Kevin Kiermaier immediately after the draft in an OBP league, smart move?
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| 4:40 |
: Looks fine to me
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| 4:40 |
: How much are you discounting me with the humidor? Project for over/Under 26 HRs?
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| 4:40 |
: I’ll take the over
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| 4:40 |
: I’m not really discounting Goldy. I figure he’s elite enough to overcome the humidor
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| 4:40 |
: Guys I’m discounting are Pollock, Lamb, Ketel, and Owings
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| 4:41 |
: I’m sure you hate these questions, but can’t hurt to ask. 14-team mixed, 10 keepers, $260 budget, the usual (2 c’s, MI, CI, U, 5 OF). Pick three: Eric Thames- $2
Schoop $10 Inciarte $9 Mazara $14 Pollock $13 C.Santana $17 Corbin $1 J. Montgomery $1 Thanks! |
| 4:41 |
: I do hate these questions!
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| 4:41 |
: My biggest issue is that I’m not in these leagues
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| 4:42 |
: I don’t have anything internalized about them so I can only speak very generally
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| 4:42 |
: I think the value for Santana is poor
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| 4:42 |
: If you need steals, that helps the case for Pollock. I’d pay the $4 to take him over Inciarte – unless you need the steals X2
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| 4:43 |
: Thames is platoony Bellinger
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| 4:43 |
: Big fan of JorMont
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| 4:43 |
: but you might be able to get him back for like $5
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| 4:43 |
: his price varies wildly
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| 4:43 |
: Mazara could work if you’re willing to bet on growth
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| 4:43 |
: He’s probably going to go wild one of these years
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| 4:43 |
: like Marcell Ozuna
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| 4:44 |
: Schoop is probably a must-keep at that price
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| 4:44 |
: so… Schoop, Pollock, Mazara? Unless that’s too much budget, then squeeze in Thames or jorMont
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| 4:44 |
: Any breakout $1 catchers on your radar?
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| 4:44 |
: Not really
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| 4:45 |
: Andrew Knapp I guess
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| 4:45 |
: I’m taking Chirinos and Suzuki for $1 though
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| 4:45 |
: those aren’t breakouts, just nice values on veterans
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| 4:45 |
: Any chance I’m the best stl pitcher this year?
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| 4:45 |
: Pretty small.
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| 4:45 |
: you don’t seem grouchy today.
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| 4:46 |
: I dunno. I’m pretty much only grumpy when somebody hands me a list of chores.
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| 4:46 |
: So I don’t know how I got that reputation
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| 4:46 |
: In a vacuum, who gets the final spot on my roster in a 12 team points league. Orlando Arcia, Ketel Marte, Jose Martinez, Andrelton Simmons, or Yander Alonso
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| 4:47 |
: Interesting… I think I go Martinez, assuming your last roster spot is a bench player
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| 4:47 |
: then you just hang onto him until he earns a bigger role
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| 4:47 |
: What are the weirdest league settings you’ve played in that you hated?
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| 4:47 |
: In high school, I made a 10×10 public yahoo league
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| 4:48 |
: Generally, I hate any kind of weekly league that isn’t also a very deep dynasty
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| 4:48 |
: if it’s redraft, weekly is inexcusable.
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| 4:48 |
: (*hack* #TGFBI *cough*)
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| 4:48 |
: 🙂
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| 4:49 |
: 12 team 1 catcher league – how early do you take sanchez? late 2nd?
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| 4:49 |
: No
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| 4:49 |
: Honestly, I don’t take Sanchez in that format. He’s gone before pick 35.
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| 4:50 |
: Replacement level is very high. If it’s a daily league, you can roster both Grandal and Barnes with end-round picks
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| 4:50 |
: And get top 3 catcher production
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| 4:50 |
: you like pairing Arenado with Dee to start a standard 15 team 5×5 roto? seems like Arenado can support Dee’s shortcomings
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| 4:50 |
: Definitely have to draft Dee knowing that you already picked a bunch of HR. Prefer Stanton with him.
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| 4:50 |
: Or Judge.
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| 4:50 |
: How do you see the Milwaukee OF playing out. Drafted Braun and I’m curious if he can get 500 PA this year
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| 4:51 |
: I’m worried about Braun. If he’s actually spending time at 1B, his back is going to die.
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| 4:51 |
: I picked him for $14 the other day, so it’s not like I’m out on him
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| 4:51 |
: Please rank Charlie Morton, Kevin Gausman, Jordan Montomery, Aaron Sanchez for this year only.
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| 4:51 |
: Sanchez, Morton, Monty, Gausman
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| 4:51 |
: Check back in July when Gausman is ready to start performing
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| 4:52 |
: Odds Domingo Santana gets 600 ABs this year?
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| 4:52 |
: 25%
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| 4:52 |
: Who is closing in TEX?
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| 4:52 |
: A mix of Diekman, Claudio, and Bush
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| 4:52 |
: Basically, Claudio if the starter goes deep. Diekman or Bush if not.
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| 4:52 |
: Does Miguel Andujar have enough upside in 12 team dynasty to burn a bench spot in daily league (7 slots)?
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| 4:52 |
: fringy
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| 4:53 |
: If Drury is playing well, you can move on by mid-April
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| 4:53 |
: assuming it’s not one of those BABIP flukes
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| 4:53 |
: You need to know Andujar has a path to playing time
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| 4:53 |
: Nimmo, Soler or someone else (Davidson, Peraza) as post- hype but spring hyped value hitter?
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| 4:53 |
: I think I like Nimmo most
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| 4:54 |
: Got myself a $2 Soler share in one league though
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| 4:54 |
: Think I have 3 Nimmos
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| 4:54 |
: I’m worried about Stanton/the Yankees. Gardner is so so leadoff at this point, and then we go Judge, Stanton, Bird–opportunity for a gazillion whiffs and a lot of one-run HRs. Do you see this as a concern?
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| 4:54 |
: Not really, that’s going to really wear out opposing pitchers
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| 4:54 |
: You got a seat on the Jose Martinez hype train?
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| 4:55 |
: It’s weird. I was an early adopter, but I’m not buying the next JDM narrative. Maybe the next… Yonder?
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| 4:55 |
: Do you believe in Jose Martinez, can he get 500 PA?
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| 4:55 |
: A popular player today. He can. I’m betting on 450 for now.
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| 4:56 |
: That’s one early season injury to somebody from 500+
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| 4:56 |
: re 2B being super deep – it seems like every good 2B is in the AL. have any NL favorites for a deep “only” league after Ozzie, Happ, Murphy, and Lemahiu are gone? Seems like you like Cesar H. Anyone else?
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| 4:56 |
: Let me think about this a moment.
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| 4:56 |
: Ketel
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| 4:57 |
: Harrison, Villar, Scooter, Flores, Castro, Pirela
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| 4:57 |
: Dietrich (might play LF), stash Kingery, Forsythe
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| 4:58 |
: Oh, Howie Kendrick early
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| 4:58 |
: I think Scooter, Villar, and Kendrick are my early favorites of those
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| 4:58 |
: you’re going to be moving on from Kendrick pretty quickly though
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| 4:58 |
: and be prepared for the same with Villar via Sogard or others
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| 4:59 |
: My team is thin until a couple of youngsters get the call. F.Mejia & W.Calhoun specifically. Can I expect them to be up in May?
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| 4:59 |
: Sorry, but no you can’t.
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| 4:59 |
: I think it’s over 50% for Calhoun
|
| 4:59 |
: The Indians are trying to find a second position for Mejia – so far unsuccessfully
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| 4:59 |
: his batting is likely to suffer as he learns to be a utility guy
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| 5:00 |
: Bigger impact for fantasy in 2018 – Willie Calhoun or Francisco Mejia?
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| 5:00 |
: Calhoun
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| 5:00 |
: Is it Boxberger or Bradley???
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| 5:00 |
: Or Hirano. Still no clarity
|
| 5:00 |
: Is Brinson going to break camp with Marlins
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| 5:00 |
: Increasingly likely. They’re talking about him as a leadoff guy
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| 5:00 |
: Who wins Chisox closer role beginning of season and who has it at ASB?
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| 5:00 |
: Soria and Soria?
|
| 5:01 |
: I really like Jones, but his slider-heavy approach doesn’t seem to mix with health
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| 5:01 |
: What kind of value can former crushes Velasquez, Karns and Homer B have this year?
|
| 5:01 |
: Velasquez has some hope, Karns could have some home park help, steer clear of Homer
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| 5:01 |
: That park…
|
| 5:01 |
: jeimer a run in the mill 3b in a deep 3b pool? you think he ever develops any power or is he a 270/330/400 kinda guy with 20 hr tops and no speed?
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| 5:02 |
: I think he can do a little better in the OBP department
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| 5:02 |
: Basically though…
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| 5:02 |
: The lady of the apartment tells me it’s time to wrap this up
|
| 5:03 |
: let’s do a few more
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| 5:03 |
: Do you prefer iannetta or martin? obviously a 2 catcher league
|
| 5:03 |
: Iannetta
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| 5:03 |
: Ian Happ or Yoan Moncada in an OBP & SLG league?
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| 5:03 |
: I think I go Happ for 2018
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| 5:03 |
: Moncada is still pre-MLB success. Although the high power floor makes the upside all the more tempting
|
| 5:03 |
: Is Machado a first round pick in a 10 team? Better year than last year in contract year?
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| 5:04 |
: Fringe. Can be in the mix for pick 7 through 18
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| 5:04 |
: What are the deepest/shallowest positions this year?
|
| 5:04 |
: shallowest is definitely catcher
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| 5:04 |
: depending on your format, deepest is 2B or OF
|
| 5:04 |
: 1B a close third
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| 5:04 |
: SS and 3B aren’t too far back
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| 5:04 |
: As Jeff Z’s been saying all winter, there is no position scarcity
|
| 5:05 |
: how are you projecting Arron Sanchez ? 2016 or 2017?
|
| 5:05 |
: 2016 minus a small amount
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| 5:05 |
: What is your favorite pick (or buy) of this draft season?
|
| 5:05 |
: Aaron Sanchez
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| 5:05 |
: He costs NOTHING
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| 5:05 |
: what makes you like Knapp?
|
| 5:05 |
: He’s a legit good hitter. Lots of barrels. There’s growth potential if he can make more contact or hit more fly balls
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| 5:06 |
: and the bar for catcher is so low
|
| 5:06 |
: If you’re referring to Alfaro’s presence, I’m not sure he can hit in the majors
|
| 5:06 |
: Although reports of his defense this spring are encouraging, his defense tends to draw praise early in the year
|
| 5:06 |
: Later, scouts are saying how lazy he is
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| 5:06 |
: So I’m guess he kind of wears out easy
|
| 5:07 |
: that tells me a 50/50 split is the best way to maximize his production
|
| 5:07 |
: How high would you go for Acuna in a keep-forever league in the round they are drafted?
|
| 5:07 |
: 5? Anything higher doesn’t offer much long term potential
|
| 5:07 |
: Maybe 4
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| 5:07 |
: Dexter fowler = adam eaton if you reverse their sb and hr totals?
|
| 5:07 |
: Love Dexter Fowler
|
| 5:07 |
: Another guy who’s very good and costs nothing
|
| 5:08 |
: 5 category production and a monster in OBP
|
| 5:08 |
: ok, it’s been fun. I’ve got to run.
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| 5:08 |
: Any love for Brandon Belt in H2H points league this year?…Strong projections as usual…
|
| 5:08 |
: Yes, he’s so steady
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| 5:08 |
: Who do you like better over the next 3-5 years in a points league, Smoak or Bird? Thanks!
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| 5:08 |
: Bird
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| 5:08 |
: Smoak is old
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| 5:08 |
: Who do you trust more, Bregman or Yelich?
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| 5:08 |
: Trust? Yelich
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| 5:08 |
: I’m drafting Bregman first tho
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Can we please get an option for the auction calculator to output raw category totals rather than m$ values? Would be very helpful. I know someone told me how to do this myself last year, but I’m not that smart.