Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/5/2019

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few moments.

Brad Johnson: I got hung up playing OOTP 19. It’s $4.99 on Steam today.

Filet-o-Marlins: Luis Garcia (WAS) or Nate Lowe in 12 team keep forever dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: EZ Garcia

Brad Johnson: Despite solid on field results, Lowe isn’t very highly regarded. I’ve yet to read a credible report that said “yep, this is definitely a MLBer”

Brad Johnson: Garcia has potential to become a top 25 prospect. He might already be a top 25 dynasty prospect.

Jonny: Should I be running to trade Kluber in a keep forever? I’m the defending champ and competing again I just don’t want to be a year too late

Brad Johnson: I dunno about running. It’s always wise to continuously entertain offers for your older players though.

Terry: Matt Strahm….you see a future Padres SP there, especially given their current depleted staff?

Brad Johnson: No, and their staff is depleted? That’s news to me. They have low key very solid pitchers. Strahm fits better in a relief role.

Hattori Hanzo: Are Villar and Hampson a sufficient plan to fill a FGpts MI slot if everything else on the roster is solid?  Or should I grab some veteran like Neil Walker in the draft to compensate?

Brad Johnson: I’d grab a veteran, but I’d also aim for better than Walker.

Brad Johnson: Should be available somewhere in the $3 and under bin.

Anselm: Thanks for the chats — I’m in a 12-team roto/auction 2-catcher league w/obp, holds/saves as categories. A 263 budget & can keep three from Gleyber 6, Sanchez 15, Hader 5, Soto 13, Story 9, Andujar 3. How would you handle that?

Brad Johnson: Strike Hader and Sanchez

Brad Johnson: Soto and Story are musts

Brad Johnson: So that leaves you to decide which Yankee you prefer. It’s Torres for me, but I know my colleagues mostly prefer Andujar.

Hakaida: Is Bieber one of the most divisive pitchers in fantasy? Some people are really high on him, while others are less enthused.

Brad Johnson: I think what’s happening is we have some people jumping the gun on the peripherals actualizing into production. Then the other side of the coin is – maybe there’s a reason he didn’t dominate and has modest scouting reports.

Brad Johnson: This relates to the post I have queued up for tomorrow about Luis Castillo (you may recall a similar post I wrote a year ago).

KilleBrews: Is there a chance Harper and/or Machado dont sign somewhere before spring training begins? Regular season?

Brad Johnson: Before ST, definitely. I would expect that actually.

Brad Johnson: They’ll be on a roster by end of March though.

Ronald Acuna McDonaldson: Hey Brad thanks for your time! $300 budget, H2H 7×6 (with XBH, OBP, QS). Which 7 keepers would you choose? I feel pretty confident about these first 4:

Vlad Jr. $8, Story $16, Buehler $7, Severino $12,

but gets hazy after that…

Mondesi $7, Conforto $7, Degrom $28, Eugenio $11, Ozzie $12, G. Marquez $8, G. Sanchez $18

Brad Johnson: Conforto definitely.

Brad Johnson: I always pause a second before saying Mondesi in OBP

Brad Johnson: But in this case, I think you grab the SBs and hope Vladito balances him out.

Brad Johnson: I’d lean locking in the elite SP unless you think you can redraft for a similar price

Brad Johnson: If deGrom costs like $30 to redraft, then keep Suarez.

Brad Johnson: Otherwise, just lock in deGrom if an ace would run $40+ (it should in $300 w/ QS).

Jonny: My league mates are mad that a new member (whose team is terrible) in our keeper league traded me the first overall pick after keeper (131 overall) for Wander Franco. Now I’m definitely the most baseball savvy of the group but how can they not see that I’m purposefully losing this trade for the good of the league. I’m the commish and have won 2 years in a row.

Brad Johnson: That’s… yea that’s a bad trade for you. Really bad. You can quote me.

Brad Johnson: I suppose league depth is relevant

Brad Johnson: Franco ain’t such a big deal in a 10-team keeper with shallow lineups

Kyle M.: Thoughts on Chris Paddack? I love that K:BB% from last year. Hope he can get a shot this season in SD

Brad Johnson: Paddack is a more affordable version of the Bieber, Castillo, and Pivetta profile – i.e. guys with shiny peripherals who haven’t yet put it all together.

Brad Johnson: This is a great profile to invest in, so long as your doing so using assets (i.e. $1-$3) that don’t HAVE to pay off. If you pay $10 for a pitcher, they have to perform.

Hank: You see Paxson’s fantasy value going down a smidge now that there’s no need for him to pitch more than 6 innings with that Pen?

Brad Johnson: Not really. Maybe in QS leagues?

Brad Johnson: It’s offset by having fantastic run support and a pen that won’t fumble his leads.

dee’s nutz: Is Altuve worth a second round pick?  In other words, was his year last year mainly a product of injuries or has he peaked and is on the decline?\

Brad Johnson: I think you can sneak him into the 1st round tbh. That you don’t have to is a complete gift.

resumeman: Hi Brad, who do you prefer the next few years, Mazara or Piscotty?

Brad Johnson: Ooh, tough pairing. I’ll investigate

Brad Johnson: I think I own zero combined shares across my 11 active leagues.

Brad Johnson: though I did once trade a much younger Mazara for Story, Donaldson, and Aaron Sanchez

Brad Johnson: I’ll hesitantly say Piscotty. Mazara could break out, but he’s shown no signs of it despite plenty of reps.

Definitely not Justin Mason: Which is more: Games Vlad Jr starts or Orioles  team losses?

Brad Johnson: Vladito for sure.

Brad Johnson: There’s almost no chance they’ll keep him down beyond mid-April

Jamie Lee Curtis’ Diarrhea: May I have ten minutes of your time to tell you about my lord and savior, pro-biotics?

Brad Johnson: I tire of this pro- versus anti- biotics debate

Wildtsunami: Tyler O’Neil going to play much this year…

Brad Johnson: He’ll have to wait for an opportunity.

Brad Johnson: My understanding of the Cardinals depth chart is that Ozuna and Bader are locked in starters with Martinez and Fowler sharing RF.

Brad Johnson: So that means O’Neill is parked in Triple-A.

Brad Johnson: If you get a chance to check out O’Neill’s performance against fastballs and sliders, you’ll discover he’s exactly Pedro Cerrano.

Moose: Do you have a general strategy for deep league dynasty start up leagues?

Brad Johnson: Several. It’s kind of a flow chart really.

Brad Johnson: The first few rounds are spent locking in long term value – studs 26 and under. From there, I figure out how many teams are punting for prospects and how many are shooting for the year 1 win.

Brad Johnson: I tend to skew prospects early, knowing I can make up ground later if too many people are competing for those resources.

Brad Johnson: It’s always easier to add PV than FV for some reason

Mr. Fister: Josh James or Touki?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say James with a caveat that neither is a perfectly fine answer. Both volatile assets.

Yusei My Kuchi: Paddack or Patino long term?

Brad Johnson: That’s Luis Patino for those not fully versed in the Padres system

Brad Johnson: My understanding is Patino is by far the better prospect, but there is something to be said for being MLB-adjacent (Paddack). I think you could flip a coin.

Brad Johnson: Personally, I’d trade ’em for a hitting prospect.

Mr. Fister: Alonso or Bart in dynasty minors draft?

Brad Johnson: Alonso in most cases

Brad Johnson: Catchers, even premo-ones like Bart, make for bad fantasy prospects

Brad Johnson: I do have some reservations about Alonso. He’s not as can’t miss as people act.

Brad Johnson: 25-minutes in, I feel like the moral of today’s chat is “expect less from that guy”

Keeps: In ottoneu leagues where most prospects are kept (26 of top 30 in mine), do you tend to see the remaining go for way more than they’re worth from inflation or stay around typical prospect price (like $2-7)?

Brad Johnson: I’m not sure I’m working with a large enough sample to speak authoritatively.

Brad Johnson: But I would expect them to be cheap

Brad Johnson: For one, it’s hard to squeeze direct value out of prospects without trading them

Brad Johnson: in ottoneu that is

Ryan : Bounce back or fall flat for Darvish this year?

Brad Johnson: I’m betting on Darvish when I have a chance

Believeland: What is your expectation for Robles if he gets a full season? what’s his ceiling?

Brad Johnson: I don’t see much risk of a flameout. I think he’ll enter the league as a three or four WAR CF.

Brad Johnson: He makes plenty of contact, has shown signs of burgeoning power, will steal 25+ bases, playable AVG/OBP

Brad Johnson: The only question is his role in the lineup. Could be lower in the order initially.

Blackbird: Hi Brad, Scoresheet SIM league – Keep (13).  Hiura + Royce Lewis + Kyle Tucker + Bumgarner vs Francisco Lindor + Jake Lamb.  What side do you want in that blockbuster?

Brad Johnson: I can only give this a smell. I think the bigger side has a LOT of value, but it only works if you’re not cutting other good players. Otherwise, you want to aggregate to Lindor.

Dungeon Master: Grandal a top catcher 2019+2020? Usually don’t keep non-elite catchers, but I have the option to keep very cheaply for 2 years in dynasty when I’m at peak competitiveness.

Brad Johnson: Good bet to be top 5 at the position

Brad Johnson: Can’t bank it of course

Voltron: Hi Brad,Is Blake Treinen a legit top 3 closer?  He took huge leaps last year at the age of 30 from all of his career norms.   Did the development of his cutter really make him that unhittable?

Brad Johnson: I think so. With the caveat that there are about 5 closers who are amazing

Brad Johnson: And they could fall in any order

Brad Johnson: Diaz, Treinen, Jansen, Kimbrel, and Chapman.

dezre: Creating a projection model for points leagues, pretty easy to map stats to their corresponding point  totals and rank who will score more points by position. Is there a corresponding way to do this for H2H categories leagues, especially for rate stats? What’s the best way to build a projection system for this format in your opinion?

Brad Johnson: Sorry, I’m the wrong person to ask. I suggest cornering Jeff Zimmerman or Ariel Cohen.

Brad Johnson: I long ago determined that projections hinder me a lot more than they help

Wally World: You mentioned keeping Brad Keller in your Ottoneu post because he suppresses HR.  I realize he induces a lot of GB, but do you have any particular reason you believe he keeps his HR/FB as low as it was last year?

Brad Johnson: He made a variety of improvements throughout the season. I suspect there will be a post on the topic before long.

Brad Johnson: Also, Kauffman Stadium + terrible intra-division rivals

Brad Johnson: (and wins don’t matter in FGpts)

Eagle landing again: With al only catcher such a mess, would you consider keeping Danny Jansen over someone like Mallex Smith or Leclerc? (2 catcher, Obp league)

Brad Johnson: Despite the mess, no, not really.

Brad Johnson: Hard to pass Smith’s SB

Camden: Do you have any projections or rankings you recommend using for a startup dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: I could try putting that together. It would be a patreon project though since it would mostly point to non-FG resources. I do love the FG prospect crew, but they’re not ranking anything for us. They’re real world focused.

Scotty: Dynasty league, could you rank: T. Swaggerty, M. Vientos, T. Ornelas, X. Edwards?

Brad Johnson: Edwards is one of my favorite prospects

Brad Johnson: And I don’t just mean on that list. He looks like Dee Gordon with plate discipline.

Brad Johnson: The other 3 are all the same asset class for me. A lot to like, but plenty of red flags.

Brad’s Alter Ego: Brad, what kind of pitcher will Jimmy Nelson be in 2019? You like him over Marco Gonzales?

Brad Johnson: Sorry, I’m not a fortune teller. There’s no knowing what kind of Nelson will show up.

Brad Johnson: I wasn’t even confident we’d get a repeat of his 2017 BEFORE the injury

Thormy Daniels: If your only catcher in a FGpts league was Kurt Suzuki, and you expect him to play well, but only half the games, would you try to supplement him with someone like Sal Perez who plays all the time or someone like Chirinos or Gomes (or both) where you could only play them in favorable matchups so that you hit the 162 games limit?

Brad Johnson: I’d go for Chirinos

Brad Johnson: Mostly because I ran a Suzuki/Chirinos platoon last year for $4 and it was great

Brad Johnson: Something like 4.6 pts/g

Thormy Daniels: WTF happened to Luis Severino at the end of 2018 and do you think any of that carries over to 2019?

Brad Johnson: I would bet on fatigue or a minor injury

Brad Johnson: Could also have been a slump

Brad Johnson: We don’t talk about pitcher slumps because they’re kind of weird compared to hitter slumps

Brad Johnson: But they happen

Brad Johnson: I’m not worried

Brad Johnson: Well, I’m not worried any more than I usually worry about SP

Brad Johnson: He’s in the ace-but-not-monster-ace asset class

Vogelbach Truther: Dereck Rodriguez or Marco Gonzales for next year?

Brad Johnson: I’d go Gonzales. Better supporting crew. Better pitcher.

Pat’s Bat: 10 team H2H dynasty.  Each team runs 7 to 11 SP.  Would you keep the following:  Darvish $12, Stripling $1, Nelson $1?  I guess this question is a proxy for how many IP you think these guys will get.

Brad Johnson: Can I assume a $260 budget? Yes. Only possible cut is Nelson.

Moose: Is 3rd overall too early for Acuna in a dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: No. He’ll probably go first or second though.

Brad Johnson: He has in just about all of the leagues that I’ve peeked in on

PJ: Kyle Tucker or David Dahl in a keep forever roto league?

Brad Johnson: EZ Tucker for me

Dante: NL only roto keeper league, G Hampson or AJ Minter?

Brad Johnson: I kinda want to gamble on Hampson finding light over Minter being a just-solid closer whenever Arodys is next injured.

Brad Johnson: Minter is probably more likely to reach our expectations for him (15-20 saves, solid ratios)

Brad Johnson: Hampson might barely play

Brad Johnson: Or hit 10 HR with 25 SB and good run production

flop: Severino and Rich Hill for L. Castillo and A. Reyes in dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Gimme the Sevvy side

Rick Sanchez: Is Kluber and Royce Lewis Too much for Vlad Jr in an OPS heavy dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Too little

Brad J.: Would you trad Kluber straight up for any of the following pitchers in a keep forever if you’re competing? Nola, Cole, Snell, Bauer, Thor, or Buehler?

Brad Johnson: All but Bauer (the injury scare) and Thor (injuries and he’s not as good as people think)

Brad Johnson: To be clear, Thor is a good pitcher. But the league adjusted to elite velocity while he missed a bunch of time

Brad Johnson: He didn’t get to adjust with the hitters – and his success is almost all velo.

Carl: Vlad or Acuna in dynasty (Points)

Brad Johnson: POINTS!!!

Brad Johnson: Sorry Acuna, gimme Vladito

Brad Johnson: A lot of Acuna’s value comes from SB (which I think will all but vanish with 4 years anyway)

Adam Levine’s Nipples: Brad, thanks for the chat. Thoughts on Gregory Polanco as an OF1 and Max Kepler as an OF2 in a keep forever dynasty format, 30 teams?  Hitting categories: RBI, R, HR, SB, and OBP. Do you like one better than the other? Who has more upside?

Brad Johnson: Polanco is more likable and upsidey

Brad Johnson: likable is a weird word and seemingly means the same as lickable in my head

Brad Johnson: which only adds to the weird

Brad Johnson: I think Kepler is at risk of vanishing into backup land at any moment. But for a 30 team format, he’s an acceptable OF2

Wally World: Who are you next favorite prospects after Vlad in FGpts?  Options include: Eloy, Tatis, Senzel, Hiura, Whitley, Tucker, Bichette, Franco, Luzardo

Brad Johnson: I’m a little more willing to go bold on pitching prospects in FGpts.

Brad Johnson: So Whitley is right up there with Eloy and perhaps Franco

Brad Johnson: Luzardo on the edge of that group too.

Brad Johnson: I don’t have any surprise names to add to what you listed.

Sid Finch: Is Logan Allen flying under the radar in the Pads system? Crazy to think he’s a candidate for a rotation spot at some point?

Brad Johnson: The Padres as a team fly under the radar. I think they could contend if they manage to shake out the roster and get a little luck to boot.

Brad Johnson: Allen could find a role in the rotation or bullpen this season.

Brad Johnson: I went and refreshed myself on his scouting report. He’s nothing special. Fringe to serviceable MLBer

Pat’s Bat: When joining a new dynasty league why wouldn’t you just draft all present value?  If the league doesn’t fold after a few years you have the option to quit after taking everyone’s money.

Brad Johnson: Remind me to ban you from any startup I run

Brad Johnson: Or charge you 5 years up front

Wally World: Follow up:  Why are you willing to go bold on pitching prospects in FGpts?

Brad Johnson: Elite pitching is a key ingredient to winning, but it’s difficult to actually roster elite SP AND an effective offense.

Brad Johnson: Elite SP are mostly $50 or so

Brad Johnson: Maybe you can own 1 when you really need 3

Brad Johnson: And most people recognize this on some level

Brad Johnson: This gives the pitching prospect more internal value – if Aaron Nola turns into Aaron Nola, you have 4 years of an ace before he’s paid like one

Brad Johnson: And if you need immediately reinforcements, somebody will trade you Max Scherzer-ish for Forrest Whitley.

Win later?: How would you adjust auction calculator values if you were doing a start up dynasty draft and planning on tanking to win later?

Brad Johnson: If you’re referring to the FG Auction Calc, it’s simply unequipped to handle that

Brad Johnson: In a dynasty auction setting, I would strongly consider avoiding the tanking path until it’s clear prospects will have a minimal cost.

Brad Johnson: Unless the auction values don’t affect keeper prices, then you have a whole other can of worms

llmms: target calhoun vs buxton in dynasty ottoneu league?

Brad Johnson: Buxton

Brad Johnson: Calhoun is a year or two from vanishing

Brad Johnson: Buxton, even with the bad 2018, still projects to help in multiple categories.

Brad Johnson: And he’s young-ish, and he could still put it together.

Max: Is Trout the surefire #1 pick in all dynasty formats?

Brad Johnson: Nope, not at all.

Brad Johnson: Acuna is frequently chosen #1. I think you can justify Vladito and Soto too.

Brad Johnson: Personally, I have it down to Trout and Acuna

Brad Johnson: I want the SBs

Brad J.: What are your thoughts on Travis Shaw for this year? I really like that power from a 2B

Brad Johnson: I think you’ll wind up using him at 3B where he’s maybe slightly more valuable?

Brad Johnson: I really like Shaw to put together some of the growth traits he showed in ’17 and ’18

Brad Johnson: Could be a top 50 player

Jim Thome: Have you made your mind up on Mondesi? Is he a legit top 75 player or is it all smoke and mirrors from last year?

Brad Johnson: That’s not how it works

Brad Johnson: There is a range of plausible (and some implausible) outcomes ranging from a top 5 player to something like 2018 Byron Buxton.

Brad Johnson: I do think the 50th percentile outcome is within the top 75 players. Easily

Brad Johnson: Doesn’t mean you won’t get a 0th percentile outcome

gary mack: #1 pick in first year player draft (J2 and 2018 Draftees) – who are you taking?

Brad Johnson: Good question, I don’t have any of these this year. Gimme a minute.

Brad Johnson: Edwards and Madrigal are my favorites. Victor Victor might be the quickest to the show.

Max: What about in points leagues? Is Vlad ahead of Trout there because of the SBs not mattering as much?

Brad Johnson: I think so

Brad Johnson: It hurts me a little to recommend a minor leaguer. But Vladito is something I’ve never seen.

Brad Johnson: Ok, time to wrap it up

Brad Johnson: On a tight schedule today

weezy: 2nd year Ottoneu league, about 15-20% inflation after keepers. With ~12-15 top 50 players available in the draft, how much inflation should I factor for those top talents?

Brad Johnson: I would plan on 30%. But be prepared to strike early and often. Sometimes these second year leagues don’t adjust until mid-draft.

Brad Johnson: Might actually see no inflation at first.

Adam: Phillies! Any thoughts on reports of the Phils getting in on Realmuto trade talks? Just kicking tires or is there something to it?  And what would you expect from Realmuto with half his games at CBP?

Brad Johnson: I think the Marlins will just use them to drum up better offers from the Reds or others.

Brad Johnson: For their part, the Phillies might be concerned they won’t get Harper and Machado.

Aaron: Unexpectedly on cut day half of my league shed a ton of salary and 9 teams are going in with >$150 to spend.  Should I be willing to go the extra few bucks for the studs so it means I won’t end up with so much cash in the end that I end up with a bunch of $10 players for $15 when everyone is trying to fill their rosters?  I’m thinking I need to grab a pair of superstars to fill my major holes so I’m not spreading so much extra money across 10 roster spots.  Thanks

Brad Johnson: That is how I would approach it.

Win later?: From my question above, the auction values are irrelevant after the draft so its keep forever at zero cost after the initial auction? I’m stuck how to value guys

Brad Johnson: In that case, I might just try to spread all my money to players 26 and under. That’s plan A

Brad Johnson: It’s a very obvious plan so be prepared to immediately shift to Plan B: under 21 year olds or Plan C: veterans and win-now

Brad Johnson: If too many people are in on young MLBers and prospects, the best play might be to live with cycling 30-year-old guys until they break down.

Brad Johnson: A bonus of making that adjustment as needed… if teams hate on older players in the initial draft, they’ll hate on ’em later too. You’ll be able to acquire David Peralta types for peanuts.

aka22: Which OF keeper do you prefer in a 10 team 5×5 NL Only $260 budget, $20 Ozuna, $17 Puig, or $4 Nimmo?

Brad Johnson: I think Nimmo is close enough to the other pair to justify the $13 savings. They’re all good values though.

Brad Johnson: And on that note, I gotta run. Check out my patreon if you have more chat questions. We have a Discord server, and I answer pretty much everything there.
https://www.patreon.com/BaseballATeam