Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/5/2019
by Brad Johnson
February 5, 2019
We chatted about the usual range of keeper, dynasty, ottoneu, and redraft topics. Check out the transcript.
| 4:00 |
: We’ll get started in a few moments.
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| 4:00 |
: I got hung up playing OOTP 19. It’s $4.99 on Steam today.
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| 4:01 |
: Luis Garcia (WAS) or Nate Lowe in 12 team keep forever dynasty league?
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| 4:01 |
: EZ Garcia
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| 4:02 |
: Despite solid on field results, Lowe isn’t very highly regarded. I’ve yet to read a credible report that said “yep, this is definitely a MLBer”
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| 4:02 |
: Garcia has potential to become a top 25 prospect. He might already be a top 25 dynasty prospect.
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| 4:02 |
: Should I be running to trade Kluber in a keep forever? I’m the defending champ and competing again I just don’t want to be a year too late
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| 4:03 |
: I dunno about running. It’s always wise to continuously entertain offers for your older players though.
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| 4:03 |
: Matt Strahm….you see a future Padres SP there, especially given their current depleted staff?
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| 4:04 |
: No, and their staff is depleted? That’s news to me. They have low key very solid pitchers. Strahm fits better in a relief role.
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| 4:04 |
: Are Villar and Hampson a sufficient plan to fill a FGpts MI slot if everything else on the roster is solid? Or should I grab some veteran like Neil Walker in the draft to compensate?
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| 4:04 |
: I’d grab a veteran, but I’d also aim for better than Walker.
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| 4:05 |
: Should be available somewhere in the $3 and under bin.
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| 4:05 |
: Thanks for the chats — I’m in a 12-team roto/auction 2-catcher league w/obp, holds/saves as categories. A 263 budget & can keep three from Gleyber 6, Sanchez 15, Hader 5, Soto 13, Story 9, Andujar 3. How would you handle that?
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| 4:05 |
: Strike Hader and Sanchez
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| 4:06 |
: Soto and Story are musts
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| 4:06 |
: So that leaves you to decide which Yankee you prefer. It’s Torres for me, but I know my colleagues mostly prefer Andujar.
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| 4:06 |
: Is Bieber one of the most divisive pitchers in fantasy? Some people are really high on him, while others are less enthused.
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| 4:07 |
: I think what’s happening is we have some people jumping the gun on the peripherals actualizing into production. Then the other side of the coin is – maybe there’s a reason he didn’t dominate and has modest scouting reports.
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| 4:08 |
: This relates to the post I have queued up for tomorrow about Luis Castillo (you may recall a similar post I wrote a year ago).
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| 4:08 |
: Is there a chance Harper and/or Machado dont sign somewhere before spring training begins? Regular season?
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| 4:08 |
: Before ST, definitely. I would expect that actually.
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| 4:09 |
: They’ll be on a roster by end of March though.
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| 4:09 |
: Hey Brad thanks for your time! $300 budget, H2H 7×6 (with XBH, OBP, QS). Which 7 keepers would you choose? I feel pretty confident about these first 4:
Vlad Jr. $8, Story $16, Buehler $7, Severino $12, but gets hazy after that… Mondesi $7, Conforto $7, Degrom $28, Eugenio $11, Ozzie $12, G. Marquez $8, G. Sanchez $18 |
| 4:09 |
: Conforto definitely.
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| 4:10 |
: I always pause a second before saying Mondesi in OBP
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| 4:10 |
: But in this case, I think you grab the SBs and hope Vladito balances him out.
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| 4:10 |
: I’d lean locking in the elite SP unless you think you can redraft for a similar price
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| 4:10 |
: If deGrom costs like $30 to redraft, then keep Suarez.
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| 4:11 |
: Otherwise, just lock in deGrom if an ace would run $40+ (it should in $300 w/ QS).
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| 4:11 |
: My league mates are mad that a new member (whose team is terrible) in our keeper league traded me the first overall pick after keeper (131 overall) for Wander Franco. Now I’m definitely the most baseball savvy of the group but how can they not see that I’m purposefully losing this trade for the good of the league. I’m the commish and have won 2 years in a row.
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| 4:12 |
: That’s… yea that’s a bad trade for you. Really bad. You can quote me.
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| 4:12 |
: I suppose league depth is relevant
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| 4:12 |
: Franco ain’t such a big deal in a 10-team keeper with shallow lineups
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| 4:12 |
: Thoughts on Chris Paddack? I love that K:BB% from last year. Hope he can get a shot this season in SD
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| 4:13 |
: Paddack is a more affordable version of the Bieber, Castillo, and Pivetta profile – i.e. guys with shiny peripherals who haven’t yet put it all together.
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| 4:14 |
: This is a great profile to invest in, so long as your doing so using assets (i.e. $1-$3) that don’t HAVE to pay off. If you pay $10 for a pitcher, they have to perform.
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| 4:14 |
: You see Paxson’s fantasy value going down a smidge now that there’s no need for him to pitch more than 6 innings with that Pen?
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| 4:14 |
: Not really. Maybe in QS leagues?
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| 4:15 |
: It’s offset by having fantastic run support and a pen that won’t fumble his leads.
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| 4:15 |
: Is Altuve worth a second round pick? In other words, was his year last year mainly a product of injuries or has he peaked and is on the decline?\
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| 4:15 |
: I think you can sneak him into the 1st round tbh. That you don’t have to is a complete gift.
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| 4:16 |
: Hi Brad, who do you prefer the next few years, Mazara or Piscotty?
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| 4:16 |
: Ooh, tough pairing. I’ll investigate
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| 4:16 |
: I think I own zero combined shares across my 11 active leagues.
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| 4:17 |
: though I did once trade a much younger Mazara for Story, Donaldson, and Aaron Sanchez
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| 4:17 |
: I’ll hesitantly say Piscotty. Mazara could break out, but he’s shown no signs of it despite plenty of reps.
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| 4:17 |
: Which is more: Games Vlad Jr starts or Orioles team losses?
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| 4:18 |
: Vladito for sure.
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| 4:18 |
: There’s almost no chance they’ll keep him down beyond mid-April
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| 4:18 |
: May I have ten minutes of your time to tell you about my lord and savior, pro-biotics?
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| 4:19 |
: I tire of this pro- versus anti- biotics debate
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| 4:19 |
: Tyler O’Neil going to play much this year…
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| 4:19 |
: He’ll have to wait for an opportunity.
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| 4:19 |
: My understanding of the Cardinals depth chart is that Ozuna and Bader are locked in starters with Martinez and Fowler sharing RF.
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| 4:20 |
: So that means O’Neill is parked in Triple-A.
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| 4:20 |
: If you get a chance to check out O’Neill’s performance against fastballs and sliders, you’ll discover he’s exactly Pedro Cerrano.
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| 4:20 |
: Do you have a general strategy for deep league dynasty start up leagues?
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| 4:20 |
: Several. It’s kind of a flow chart really.
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| 4:21 |
: The first few rounds are spent locking in long term value – studs 26 and under. From there, I figure out how many teams are punting for prospects and how many are shooting for the year 1 win.
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| 4:22 |
: I tend to skew prospects early, knowing I can make up ground later if too many people are competing for those resources.
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| 4:22 |
: It’s always easier to add PV than FV for some reason
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| 4:22 |
: Josh James or Touki?
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| 4:22 |
: I’ll say James with a caveat that neither is a perfectly fine answer. Both volatile assets.
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| 4:23 |
: Paddack or Patino long term?
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| 4:23 |
: That’s Luis Patino for those not fully versed in the Padres system
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| 4:24 |
: My understanding is Patino is by far the better prospect, but there is something to be said for being MLB-adjacent (Paddack). I think you could flip a coin.
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| 4:24 |
: Personally, I’d trade ’em for a hitting prospect.
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| 4:24 |
: Alonso or Bart in dynasty minors draft?
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| 4:24 |
: Alonso in most cases
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| 4:25 |
: Catchers, even premo-ones like Bart, make for bad fantasy prospects
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| 4:25 |
: I do have some reservations about Alonso. He’s not as can’t miss as people act.
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| 4:25 |
: 25-minutes in, I feel like the moral of today’s chat is “expect less from that guy”
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| 4:26 |
: In ottoneu leagues where most prospects are kept (26 of top 30 in mine), do you tend to see the remaining go for way more than they’re worth from inflation or stay around typical prospect price (like $2-7)?
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| 4:27 |
: I’m not sure I’m working with a large enough sample to speak authoritatively.
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| 4:27 |
: But I would expect them to be cheap
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| 4:27 |
: For one, it’s hard to squeeze direct value out of prospects without trading them
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| 4:27 |
: in ottoneu that is
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| 4:28 |
: Bounce back or fall flat for Darvish this year?
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| 4:28 |
: I’m betting on Darvish when I have a chance
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| 4:28 |
: What is your expectation for Robles if he gets a full season? what’s his ceiling?
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| 4:29 |
: I don’t see much risk of a flameout. I think he’ll enter the league as a three or four WAR CF.
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| 4:29 |
: He makes plenty of contact, has shown signs of burgeoning power, will steal 25+ bases, playable AVG/OBP
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| 4:29 |
: The only question is his role in the lineup. Could be lower in the order initially.
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| 4:30 |
: Hi Brad, Scoresheet SIM league – Keep (13). Hiura + Royce Lewis + Kyle Tucker + Bumgarner vs Francisco Lindor + Jake Lamb. What side do you want in that blockbuster?
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| 4:30 |
: I can only give this a smell. I think the bigger side has a LOT of value, but it only works if you’re not cutting other good players. Otherwise, you want to aggregate to Lindor.
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| 4:31 |
: Grandal a top catcher 2019+2020? Usually don’t keep non-elite catchers, but I have the option to keep very cheaply for 2 years in dynasty when I’m at peak competitiveness.
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| 4:31 |
: Good bet to be top 5 at the position
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| 4:31 |
: Can’t bank it of course
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| 4:31 |
: Hi Brad,Is Blake Treinen a legit top 3 closer? He took huge leaps last year at the age of 30 from all of his career norms. Did the development of his cutter really make him that unhittable?
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| 4:31 |
: I think so. With the caveat that there are about 5 closers who are amazing
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| 4:31 |
: And they could fall in any order
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| 4:32 |
: Diaz, Treinen, Jansen, Kimbrel, and Chapman.
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| 4:32 |
: Creating a projection model for points leagues, pretty easy to map stats to their corresponding point totals and rank who will score more points by position. Is there a corresponding way to do this for H2H categories leagues, especially for rate stats? What’s the best way to build a projection system for this format in your opinion?
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| 4:32 |
: Sorry, I’m the wrong person to ask. I suggest cornering Jeff Zimmerman or Ariel Cohen.
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| 4:33 |
: I long ago determined that projections hinder me a lot more than they help
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| 4:33 |
: You mentioned keeping Brad Keller in your Ottoneu post because he suppresses HR. I realize he induces a lot of GB, but do you have any particular reason you believe he keeps his HR/FB as low as it was last year?
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| 4:33 |
: He made a variety of improvements throughout the season. I suspect there will be a post on the topic before long.
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| 4:34 |
: Also, Kauffman Stadium + terrible intra-division rivals
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| 4:34 |
: (and wins don’t matter in FGpts)
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| 4:34 |
: With al only catcher such a mess, would you consider keeping Danny Jansen over someone like Mallex Smith or Leclerc? (2 catcher, Obp league)
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| 4:34 |
: Despite the mess, no, not really.
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| 4:34 |
: Hard to pass Smith’s SB
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| 4:34 |
: Do you have any projections or rankings you recommend using for a startup dynasty league?
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| 4:35 |
: I could try putting that together. It would be a patreon project though since it would mostly point to non-FG resources. I do love the FG prospect crew, but they’re not ranking anything for us. They’re real world focused.
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| 4:36 |
: Dynasty league, could you rank: T. Swaggerty, M. Vientos, T. Ornelas, X. Edwards?
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| 4:36 |
: Edwards is one of my favorite prospects
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| 4:36 |
: And I don’t just mean on that list. He looks like Dee Gordon with plate discipline.
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| 4:38 |
: The other 3 are all the same asset class for me. A lot to like, but plenty of red flags.
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| 4:38 |
: Brad, what kind of pitcher will Jimmy Nelson be in 2019? You like him over Marco Gonzales?
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| 4:38 |
: Sorry, I’m not a fortune teller. There’s no knowing what kind of Nelson will show up.
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| 4:38 |
: I wasn’t even confident we’d get a repeat of his 2017 BEFORE the injury
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| 4:39 |
: If your only catcher in a FGpts league was Kurt Suzuki, and you expect him to play well, but only half the games, would you try to supplement him with someone like Sal Perez who plays all the time or someone like Chirinos or Gomes (or both) where you could only play them in favorable matchups so that you hit the 162 games limit?
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| 4:39 |
: I’d go for Chirinos
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| 4:39 |
: Mostly because I ran a Suzuki/Chirinos platoon last year for $4 and it was great
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| 4:39 |
: Something like 4.6 pts/g
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| 4:40 |
: WTF happened to Luis Severino at the end of 2018 and do you think any of that carries over to 2019?
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| 4:40 |
: I would bet on fatigue or a minor injury
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| 4:40 |
: Could also have been a slump
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| 4:40 |
: We don’t talk about pitcher slumps because they’re kind of weird compared to hitter slumps
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| 4:40 |
: But they happen
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| 4:41 |
: I’m not worried
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| 4:41 |
: Well, I’m not worried any more than I usually worry about SP
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| 4:41 |
: He’s in the ace-but-not-monster-ace asset class
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| 4:41 |
: Dereck Rodriguez or Marco Gonzales for next year?
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| 4:42 |
: I’d go Gonzales. Better supporting crew. Better pitcher.
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| 4:42 |
: 10 team H2H dynasty. Each team runs 7 to 11 SP. Would you keep the following: Darvish $12, Stripling $1, Nelson $1? I guess this question is a proxy for how many IP you think these guys will get.
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| 4:42 |
: Can I assume a $260 budget? Yes. Only possible cut is Nelson.
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| 4:42 |
: Is 3rd overall too early for Acuna in a dynasty league?
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| 4:42 |
: No. He’ll probably go first or second though.
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| 4:43 |
: He has in just about all of the leagues that I’ve peeked in on
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| 4:43 |
: Kyle Tucker or David Dahl in a keep forever roto league?
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| 4:43 |
: EZ Tucker for me
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| 4:43 |
: NL only roto keeper league, G Hampson or AJ Minter?
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| 4:43 |
: I kinda want to gamble on Hampson finding light over Minter being a just-solid closer whenever Arodys is next injured.
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| 4:44 |
: Minter is probably more likely to reach our expectations for him (15-20 saves, solid ratios)
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| 4:44 |
: Hampson might barely play
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| 4:44 |
: Or hit 10 HR with 25 SB and good run production
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| 4:44 |
: Severino and Rich Hill for L. Castillo and A. Reyes in dynasty?
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| 4:44 |
: Gimme the Sevvy side
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| 4:45 |
: Is Kluber and Royce Lewis Too much for Vlad Jr in an OPS heavy dynasty?
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| 4:45 |
: Too little
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| 4:45 |
: Would you trad Kluber straight up for any of the following pitchers in a keep forever if you’re competing? Nola, Cole, Snell, Bauer, Thor, or Buehler?
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| 4:45 |
: All but Bauer (the injury scare) and Thor (injuries and he’s not as good as people think)
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| 4:46 |
: To be clear, Thor is a good pitcher. But the league adjusted to elite velocity while he missed a bunch of time
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| 4:46 |
: He didn’t get to adjust with the hitters – and his success is almost all velo.
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| 4:46 |
: Vlad or Acuna in dynasty (Points)
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| 4:46 |
: POINTS!!!
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| 4:46 |
: Sorry Acuna, gimme Vladito
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| 4:47 |
: A lot of Acuna’s value comes from SB (which I think will all but vanish with 4 years anyway)
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| 4:47 |
: Brad, thanks for the chat. Thoughts on Gregory Polanco as an OF1 and Max Kepler as an OF2 in a keep forever dynasty format, 30 teams? Hitting categories: RBI, R, HR, SB, and OBP. Do you like one better than the other? Who has more upside?
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| 4:47 |
: Polanco is more likable and upsidey
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| 4:48 |
: likable is a weird word and seemingly means the same as lickable in my head
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| 4:48 |
: which only adds to the weird
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| 4:48 |
: I think Kepler is at risk of vanishing into backup land at any moment. But for a 30 team format, he’s an acceptable OF2
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| 4:48 |
: Who are you next favorite prospects after Vlad in FGpts? Options include: Eloy, Tatis, Senzel, Hiura, Whitley, Tucker, Bichette, Franco, Luzardo
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| 4:49 |
: I’m a little more willing to go bold on pitching prospects in FGpts.
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| 4:49 |
: So Whitley is right up there with Eloy and perhaps Franco
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| 4:49 |
: Luzardo on the edge of that group too.
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| 4:49 |
: I don’t have any surprise names to add to what you listed.
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| 4:49 |
: Is Logan Allen flying under the radar in the Pads system? Crazy to think he’s a candidate for a rotation spot at some point?
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| 4:50 |
: The Padres as a team fly under the radar. I think they could contend if they manage to shake out the roster and get a little luck to boot.
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| 4:50 |
: Allen could find a role in the rotation or bullpen this season.
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| 4:52 |
: I went and refreshed myself on his scouting report. He’s nothing special. Fringe to serviceable MLBer
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| 4:52 |
: When joining a new dynasty league why wouldn’t you just draft all present value? If the league doesn’t fold after a few years you have the option to quit after taking everyone’s money.
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| 4:52 |
: Remind me to ban you from any startup I run
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| 4:52 |
: Or charge you 5 years up front
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| 4:53 |
: Follow up: Why are you willing to go bold on pitching prospects in FGpts?
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| 4:54 |
: Elite pitching is a key ingredient to winning, but it’s difficult to actually roster elite SP AND an effective offense.
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| 4:54 |
: Elite SP are mostly $50 or so
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| 4:54 |
: Maybe you can own 1 when you really need 3
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| 4:55 |
: And most people recognize this on some level
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| 4:55 |
: This gives the pitching prospect more internal value – if Aaron Nola turns into Aaron Nola, you have 4 years of an ace before he’s paid like one
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| 4:55 |
: And if you need immediately reinforcements, somebody will trade you Max Scherzer-ish for Forrest Whitley.
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| 4:56 |
: How would you adjust auction calculator values if you were doing a start up dynasty draft and planning on tanking to win later?
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| 4:56 |
: If you’re referring to the FG Auction Calc, it’s simply unequipped to handle that
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| 4:57 |
: In a dynasty auction setting, I would strongly consider avoiding the tanking path until it’s clear prospects will have a minimal cost.
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| 4:57 |
: Unless the auction values don’t affect keeper prices, then you have a whole other can of worms
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| 4:57 |
: target calhoun vs buxton in dynasty ottoneu league?
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| 4:57 |
: Buxton
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| 4:57 |
: Calhoun is a year or two from vanishing
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| 4:58 |
: Buxton, even with the bad 2018, still projects to help in multiple categories.
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| 4:58 |
: And he’s young-ish, and he could still put it together.
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| 4:58 |
: Is Trout the surefire #1 pick in all dynasty formats?
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| 4:58 |
: Nope, not at all.
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| 4:58 |
: Acuna is frequently chosen #1. I think you can justify Vladito and Soto too.
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| 4:59 |
: Personally, I have it down to Trout and Acuna
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| 4:59 |
: I want the SBs
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| 4:59 |
: What are your thoughts on Travis Shaw for this year? I really like that power from a 2B
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| 4:59 |
: I think you’ll wind up using him at 3B where he’s maybe slightly more valuable?
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| 5:00 |
: I really like Shaw to put together some of the growth traits he showed in ’17 and ’18
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| 5:00 |
: Could be a top 50 player
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| 5:00 |
: Have you made your mind up on Mondesi? Is he a legit top 75 player or is it all smoke and mirrors from last year?
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| 5:00 |
: That’s not how it works
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| 5:00 |
: There is a range of plausible (and some implausible) outcomes ranging from a top 5 player to something like 2018 Byron Buxton.
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| 5:01 |
: I do think the 50th percentile outcome is within the top 75 players. Easily
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| 5:01 |
: Doesn’t mean you won’t get a 0th percentile outcome
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| 5:01 |
: #1 pick in first year player draft (J2 and 2018 Draftees) – who are you taking?
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| 5:01 |
: Good question, I don’t have any of these this year. Gimme a minute.
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| 5:02 |
: Edwards and Madrigal are my favorites. Victor Victor might be the quickest to the show.
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| 5:03 |
: What about in points leagues? Is Vlad ahead of Trout there because of the SBs not mattering as much?
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| 5:03 |
: I think so
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| 5:03 |
: It hurts me a little to recommend a minor leaguer. But Vladito is something I’ve never seen.
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| 5:03 |
: Ok, time to wrap it up
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| 5:03 |
: On a tight schedule today
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| 5:04 |
: 2nd year Ottoneu league, about 15-20% inflation after keepers. With ~12-15 top 50 players available in the draft, how much inflation should I factor for those top talents?
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| 5:05 |
: I would plan on 30%. But be prepared to strike early and often. Sometimes these second year leagues don’t adjust until mid-draft.
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| 5:05 |
: Might actually see no inflation at first.
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| 5:05 |
: Phillies! Any thoughts on reports of the Phils getting in on Realmuto trade talks? Just kicking tires or is there something to it? And what would you expect from Realmuto with half his games at CBP?
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| 5:06 |
: I think the Marlins will just use them to drum up better offers from the Reds or others.
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| 5:06 |
: For their part, the Phillies might be concerned they won’t get Harper and Machado.
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| 5:06 |
: Unexpectedly on cut day half of my league shed a ton of salary and 9 teams are going in with >$150 to spend. Should I be willing to go the extra few bucks for the studs so it means I won’t end up with so much cash in the end that I end up with a bunch of $10 players for $15 when everyone is trying to fill their rosters? I’m thinking I need to grab a pair of superstars to fill my major holes so I’m not spreading so much extra money across 10 roster spots. Thanks
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| 5:07 |
: That is how I would approach it.
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| 5:07 |
: From my question above, the auction values are irrelevant after the draft so its keep forever at zero cost after the initial auction? I’m stuck how to value guys
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| 5:07 |
: In that case, I might just try to spread all my money to players 26 and under. That’s plan A
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| 5:08 |
: It’s a very obvious plan so be prepared to immediately shift to Plan B: under 21 year olds or Plan C: veterans and win-now
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| 5:09 |
: If too many people are in on young MLBers and prospects, the best play might be to live with cycling 30-year-old guys until they break down.
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| 5:09 |
: A bonus of making that adjustment as needed… if teams hate on older players in the initial draft, they’ll hate on ’em later too. You’ll be able to acquire David Peralta types for peanuts.
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| 5:10 |
: Which OF keeper do you prefer in a 10 team 5×5 NL Only $260 budget, $20 Ozuna, $17 Puig, or $4 Nimmo?
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| 5:10 |
: I think Nimmo is close enough to the other pair to justify the $13 savings. They’re all good values though.
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| 5:11 |
: And on that note, I gotta run. Check out my patreon if you have more chat questions. We have a Discord server, and I answer pretty much everything there. https://www.patreon.com/BaseballATeam |
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam