Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/18/2019

Brad Johnson: Let’s start this shindig

Brad Johnson: Who has something poll worthy?

Jack: How do you interpret slash lines against a pitch? Is it only when the pitch ends the at-bat (hit, walk, strikeout, out)?

Brad Johnson: Exactly

Brad Johnson:

Guest: not fantasy but fun for a poll. would the dodgers have won if the astros hadnt stole signs?

Reuben: Would you play in a WAR league?

Brad Johnson: I have! You gotta do them as bestball unless you have a very active commish.

Brad Johnson: It was one of my early Experimental Leagues which presaged my Highly Custom Leagues series.

Vader: Hi Paul! Need some keeper advice for H2H keep for 1 year.

I’ve got 2 spots left, and have to decide between Meadows, L Castillo, Darvish and Urias.

Pitching seems to be at a premium in our league, especially starters who qualify as relievers. Just don’t know if Urias will get the starts/innings. Help!

Brad Johnson: What’s up Jimmy! I think Zac Gallen fits the bill.
(Meadows and Darvish imo. Can do Meadows/Castillo though if you’re worried about pitching.)

Reuben: I am said commisioner. My league is really excited. I’ll look into bestball for next year.

Brad Johnson: So you need to be very careful with the defensive components.

Brad Johnson: Reporting lags by a couple weeks on uzr for example

Brad Johnson: at least it did the last time I talked to Appelman about it

Brad Johnson: I couldn’t conceive of a way to total it on a weekly basis with any kind of accuracy.

Enlightening Round: What kind of trade value would you put on Kluber at $25, points league, aprox. cap of $350, think he outearns that?  I’m torn as to what to expect from him this year

Brad Johnson: Very low trade value.

Brad Johnson: Probably about a $22-24 pitcher in a $350 cap. So he’s keepable, but not really a dude. You’re going to get some other par value contract.

dave in slc: what kind of year to you expect from caleb smith? worth $10 in an NL only?

Brad Johnson: My gut reaction is this is a tad rich but not outlandish. I’d prefer to pay $8, but that’s splitting hairs.

Brad Johnson: You’re going to get strikeouts, maybe slightly minus rates, and a double-minus win total.

Brad Johnson: Which in NL Only isn’t a bad package.

Brian K: Hi Brad….12 team mixer w moderate inflation. Torn about keeping Kingery $6 and J Urias at $6. 3 yr keeper league so 2019 would be 2nd yr and 2021 would be last. $11 price tag in 21′ . Thank you

Brad Johnson: Go for Urias imo

Brad Johnson: He could give you ace-like production on the upside. Kingery’s upside is solid fantasy utility guy.

Siri: O/U 25 HRs and .340 OBP for JD Davis?

Brad Johnson: Smart betting is probably under/under.

Brad Johnson: I’ll be a little bold and say under/over

Brad Johnson: He still has a few obstacles to full time PAs

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll get there when the dust clears, but I’m factoring it in for now.

kev: operating, anecdotally, under the assumption that atc is generally the most conservative public projection system, which public projection system is closest to, by your definition, an observed 99 percentile projection rather than an observed 50th

Brad Johnson: We’ve discontinued it this year but The FANS was always running around a 66th percentile projection. PECOTA used to do percentile outcomes for everyone. I haven’t looked in recent years.

Dave: Why’d you pass on Mondesi in round 5?

Brad Johnson: OBP league. Easy pass.

Brad Johnson: I honestly thought he’d get back to me in the 6th or 7th.

Brad Johnson: Especially with this crowd (talking Tout Wars D&H)

Brad Johnson: http://fantasy.fangraphs.com/draft-and-hold-my-beer-a-tout-wars-story/…

Aiden: Gotta pick 1 in a points league: Soroka, Wheeler, Matthew Boyd. No cost associated.

Brad Johnson: Soroka for me.

KitAndCanoodle: Hey Brad, thanks for chatting! Any particular SP outside of the top 250 that you’re keen on?

Brad Johnson: I’m still keen on Anibal Sanchez.

Brad Johnson: I touted him day and night prior to 2019 and nothing really happened to convince me I was wrong. Had a couple rocky starts early then adjusted.

Brad Johnson: Was a boss after early-May.

Cito’s Mustache: Yes, PECOTA still breaks down percentiles by 10, and has included 1, 5, 95 and 99 this year.

Brad Johnson: I remember toying with all of that and never finding any functional application.

Brad Johnson: For me, it’s just a “oh, cool” feature.

Fanguys: Max Fried – 2020 ace?

Brad Johnson: Yes, possibly.

Brad Johnson: The only question is if he can handle RHH enough to be an ace rather than sorta Robbie Ray-ish

Brad Johnson: which isn’t an ace but still useful for fantasy.

SparkyMcGuffey: What’s your strategy for Saves? I feel like every year I draft a dude high that is a waste and spend the whole year picking up trash (oberg etc) or giving up on saves in general. (see: Treinen last year)

Brad Johnson: It’s situational.

Brad Johnson: The shallower the league, the more likely I am to be aggressive on at least two premium closers.

Brad Johnson: Because if they bomb, I know I can find tolerable replacements. And I also know I can pick up the next Ketel Marte for free-ish.

Brad Johnson: As the league depth increases, I start looking out for value. If my rivals are afraid to start the first closer run, I might tap Josh Hader 15 picks or so after his ADP.

Brad Johnson: More commonly, I’m trying to grab rebound plays like Givens in the deep rounds.

Gator Ken: One mistake you see made too often in auction drafts

Brad Johnson: Tentative bidding on the first couple guys.

Brad Johnson: You see Gerrit Cole go for $44 then Jacob deGrom hits for $52.

Brad Johnson: That kind of thing.

JV: Whats the outlook for Austin Riley?  Is he going to begin the year in the MLB or down at AAA?  Overall projections this season for him?

Brad Johnson: Pretty likely to play a lot of third base imo. They Atlanta folk are certainly hyping him up as a quasi-BSHOL success story already.

Daily Points League: In daily moves points leagues, do you place a premium on multi-position eligible players?

Brad Johnson: I used to but they’re so ubiquitous that they’re going to wind up on your roster without any special effort.

Brad Johnson: If you somehow missed out, I might use it as an excuse to take a David Fletcher instead of Ji-Man Choi very late.

Big Wheel Break?: Will my boy Willians Astudillo make a meaningful fantasy contribution this year?

Brad Johnson: Boy I sure hope so. Because his price is oh so right this year.

Pat G: 16 team Dynasty, Zach Wheeler for John Means, Xavier Edwards, Luis Arraez. That enough meaningful young pieces to consolidate for win now pitching?

Brad Johnson: I do like Edwards, although less so after landing in Tampa where he’ll be platooned to death.

Brad Johnson: That said, the Wheeler side is an easy win imo. All of those guys carry deep flaws.

Brad Johnson: Now if you’re saying you are offering the trio, give it a shot.

Erin: Thoughts on what player you would be looking at getting back if trading Yelich (contract is up, sad to see him go). 12 Team H2H 7 Keeper points league.

Brad Johnson: Something incredible! Tatis, Mondesi, Judge? Try to find an elite player who might have a small minus next to his name due to injury last year.

ResumeMan: Do you know when ZIPS will be uploaded and merged into the Depth Charts projections?

Brad Johnson: I do not.

Brad Johnson: But you should hunt down Dan Szymborski if you’re eager to know.

ResumeMan: Will FG be posting the fantasy blurbs on the player pages again this year? They were very helpful

Brad Johnson: I submitted mine in early February. Don’t know anything more about the editing timeline.

dave in slc: battle of murphys in an al only. would you prefer tom at $5 or Sean at $8? Is mazara at 16 a good one to send for either?

Brad Johnson: I prefer Sean I think. I’m just a tad hesitant to assume his playing time in 2020.

Brad Johnson: But Tom’s season was weird and not necessarily proof he can float in the majors.

Brad Johnson: I’m assuming this is a keeper league in which case there is some merit to sending Mazara for Sean. But I would prefer the mid-lineup outfielder at this time.

Budd: Dynasty keep forever league, in a win now mode.  I have Chris Sale on his 9th year, thinking of trading for Goldschmidt on his 9th year.  $$$ amount to keep is pretty similar.  I dont have a 1st baseman, even though I can put Bellinger or Joc there.  Do I make this swap for Goldy?

Brad Johnson: I agonized over Goldy or Pham in Tout today. So I’m fresh off some Goldy research.

Brad Johnson: By ADP Sale is pretty clearly preferred.

Brad Johnson: I think the match does make sense though. From what I can tell, Goldy’s BABIP against fastballs declined, but he remained good against hard pitches from a power perspective. Some evidence more shifts could be to blame

Brad Johnson: But I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll see some rebound to his BABIP. And with it, a return to 100/30/100/5/.275 output

Few comparable: When I read a profile of prospect that “few comps, unique body type, not many big leaguers have ___” etc. I tend to board that train – hoping for a special outcome. Thinking Alek Manoah in this case (6’6″ 260 lb) and his only comp being Sabathia. Any thoughts on these outlier types?

Brad Johnson: Honestly, I ignore body comps as best I can. They’re just arbitrary anchors based on appearance.

Brad Johnson: It’s a better practice than The Face, but it’s still more likely to mislead than anything else.

Brad Johnson: That said, it can be helpful for understanding how a player with those tools/traits might succeed.

feddy: I just wanted to let you know that the champion of my 12 team H2H categories 2 keeper league has the worst keepers (S. Marte and Blackmon) of anyone in the league lolololol

Brad Johnson: You don’t *need* good players to win. They just help.

Damomen: Are you buying heaney as a sleeper this year? Always seemed to me the issue was health, not ability.

Brad Johnson: I haven’t seen as much hype this year as in the past despite a pretty solid showing. Probably because he coughed up a billion HR

Brad Johnson: If I’m hunting pure Ks and ceiling around his ADP, then yes, I’m in.

Matt W: I like to draft a DL-bound guy so that I have an open roster spot to use on first-week pop up guys. Anybody your eyeing? Clevinger?

Brad Johnson: Suarez has been hammered in ADP by his injury, and it’s mostly undeserved imo.

Brad Johnson: Hamate surgery does affect power output for up to six months, but even a 30 HR season is hot value at his adjusted ADP.

Brad Johnson: Which is in the 70s

Erin: Mr. Johnson…I have Tatis as a keeper 🙂 Arenado too much for Yelich?

Brad Johnson: Nope, take a shot.

Brad Johnson: Worst that can happen is they turn you down.

bad fantasy baseball player: I suck at fantasy baseball. Like, I traded Cole for Torres Price and Pollock last August. Please bless me with your skill so I don’t become an embarrassment again

Brad Johnson: Shameless self-hype opportunity!

Brad Johnson: My patrons have a Discord community, and the core group is pretty responsive about offering opinions on any questions asked.

Brad Johnson: Here’s a temporary link if you want to check out our Discord. https://discord.gg/ZgBk2w

Brad Johnson: And here’s my patreon homepage: https://www.patreon.com/BaseballATeam

Dickie Thon: 12 team, 5 keepers at Yahoo pre-season rank. 5×5 plus OPS. Asked this before Clevinger’s knee issue – keeping Bellinger, Bregman and Devers, choosing between Vladito, Eloy and Clevinger for last 2 spots. Rec was to keep Vladito and Clev. Would you still keep Clev, or trade Devers for Snell (pending offer) and keep Eloy?

Brad Johnson: As of today, I’m still taking Clevinger over Snell.

Brad Johnson: My Tout rivals picked Clevinger 5 spots before Snell last night/this morning.

also bad fantasy baseball player: You only have to be less bad than the other folks in your league!

Rick:

• Would you keep Josh Bell in the 16th round or Suarez in the 11th? This would be the last year I could keep suarez, where I could keep Bell for the 2021 season should he perform.

Brad Johnson: Oh… that’s tough. I think I’d do Suarez, but I could see myself spending hours agonizing over it.

Brad Johnson:

Pat G: Give me Bell

John: How does the the Domingo Santana signing impact your view on Oscar Mercado?

Brad Johnson: It does not.

Jad Brohnson: 12 team 5×5 with six keepers.  Ohtani (plays as one person, so not Yahoo) or Beiber?

Brad Johnson: You really have five other top 20 players?

Brad Johnson: I’d have a very hard time quitting Ohtani’s Top 1 potential, but Bieber is also very good. And is basically the only young pitcher besides Nola who is allowed to throw 200 IP.

Brad Johnson: I assume it’s daily moves or else it’s easily Bieber

Ryne: 16 team h2h obp league. My offense is loaded. Been approached about dealing Judge. Would you take Julio Rodriguez and Logan Gilbert? Judge’s injury history and now a shoulder issue scare me.

Brad Johnson: imo, that’s a light offer in a 16-team league.

Brad Johnson: I’ve been chewing on offers of JRod for my Bryce Harper in a 20-team OBPer. Ultimately stepped away from it.

Brad Johnson: One more piece might get it done. Something young and solid like Bryan Reynolds for example?

J.D. Martin: Is this the antsiest time of the year for keeper/dynasty leagues? I feel I’m just waiting to see which of my guys randomly get hurt during spring

Brad Johnson: Join more leagues, then every injury will impact at least one of your teams and you become numb.

Brad Johnson: mmm numbness

Chip: Where are you taking Gallo In a 6×6 league with OBP and SLG (no AVG.)?

Brad Johnson: Early!

Brad Johnson: Like 14th? I don’t know for sure offhand.

Brad Johnson: I might be a Gallo truther though.

Rich: Chris Sale worth the risk as your SP1 if your SP2-4 are ranked in the 30-50 range?

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t worry about role assignment. Category management is what matters.

Brad Johnson: Sometimes you *have* to bet on the best outcomes of certain players because that’s the hand you’ve been dealt. So based on your existing pitchers and alternatives to Sale, maybe you have to try to make him work.

Brad Johnson: If that makes sense.

Chip: Any non-closer relievers you like on talent, forgetting role? Guys like Pomeranz or Poche.

Brad Johnson: Oh, so many.

Brad Johnson: That’s probably an article.

Brad Johnson: I’ll tease one I stumbled over the other day though… Rafael Dolis quietly signed with Toronto over the winter. Upper-90s bowling ball and a wipeout slider. Might be a little pitch-to-contact with the heater but could fly up that bullpen – especially if Giles is healthy enough to trade or unhealthy enough to hit the IL.

Brad Johnson: It’s a deep-deep play

JakeJakeJake: 12 team acution draft. $400 cap, have $87 available to fill 16 spots on my roster. I need a #1 or #2 SP. Degrom, Sherzer, Gienke, Sale, Kershaw, and Bumgarner available. Who do you take and what is your max bid?

JakeJakeJake: League is also FIP based in its points scoring

Brad Johnson: Pay what you have to for deGrom. Fill a bunch of spots with $1 guys. You’re basically playing ottoneu. Those $1 finds turn into very useful trading pieces when they click.

Rich: Do you like Andres Munoz in SV+HLDS leagues or is he too buried in the SD depth chart? Love the upside personally.

Brad Johnson: I do. One of the first names I would cover in a non-CL RP article.

Kevin: A friend mentioned to me that Villar is going to play center? Have you heard this?

Brad Johnson: Was widely reported yesterday.

Brad Johnson: It’s not set in stone, but that’s Plan A.

Brad Johnson: Which means Jon Berti’s path to serious playing time is shorter than expected.

Brad Johnson: Just needs to sneak past Isan Diaz.

Bronx bomber: So who has more HRs for Yankees? Judge or Stanton? and will they lead the team in bombs or someone else?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say Judge and somebody else!

Arm Fatigue: Which top 20 SP do think will disappoint the most this year?

Brad Johnson: I think Nola or Paddack are the obvious weak links.

Brad Johnson: And I like them plenty

Brad Johnson: But the answer is really just – whoever is hurt.

Brad Johnson: Maybe Giolito fooled us all, but I don’t think that’s what happened.

Batting Eye: Thanks for the chat!  Scott Kingery now a future batting champ now that he can see?

Brad Johnson: In my experience, and with the exception of Tommy Pham, vision improvement narratives don’t correlate with better outcomes.

Sox Fan: How much disappointment in Benintendi is in overzealous projections and misperception than him. 3 less homers, same amount of doubles, random average fluctuation and everyone now thinks he sucks

Brad Johnson: Shush. I’m collecting all the Benintendi.

Bosox Sorry Excuse: Will Boston run out a 2 man rotation this year? Sale and Erod?

Brad Johnson: Don’t sleep on Eovaldi!

Brad Johnson: Dude has stuff for days. Didn’t lose any of it last year.

Kevin: I was a big believer in J Polanco last year. I was not disappointed buttttt anymore growth potential? Can he be a top 10 SS this year (Semien mold)

Brad Johnson: Asking for more growth seems bold

DH: Philosophically, do you prefer high variance or low variance prospects for dynasty leagues? Why?

Brad Johnson: I don’t approach it this way.

Brad Johnson: Perceptions of variance are typically erroneous.

Brad Johnson: To rephrase a little though, I prefer actualized players over toolsy players.

Walt: Thanks for doing this chat! Please complete this sentence: <Blank> will lead the 2020 Mariners in saves.

Brad Johnson: I should know this cold, but I need to go look it up.

Brad Johnson: I know people are talking about Hirano and I’m pretty sour on that

Brad Johnson: Brandon Brennan

Rich: The yellow flag I most often see raised for Willie Calhoun is his IFFB% but I calculated it as if it were part of K% and it only got him up to ~25 K%, which seems ok given rest of his profile. I worry more about his pedestrian BBE%. Any thoughts?

Brad Johnson: So ignoring most of what you’re asking me to respond to…

Brad Johnson: Part of the problem with a high IFFB% is it indicates a player doesn’t have a tight launch angle.

Brad Johnson: Which we’ve learned correlates to underperforming in BABIP and vice versa

Brad Johnson: So it’s not only in-play strikeouts, it’s also a leading indicator of other negative outcomes.

Sox Fan: More Benintendi (I WILL NOT BE SILENCED). The guy raked ahead in the count and was dismal with 2 strikes. Random noise, or something he needs to change in his approach?

Brad Johnson: Did I ignore your Benintendi question? I meant to respond! I even read it!

Brad Johnson: Oh right, I shushed you!

Brad Johnson: Seems like a sign he lapsed into passivity

Brad Johnson: He’s always walked that line between Bregman and Chris Young the Hitter.

tmh: Dylan Cease and Mitch Keller….what does your crystal ball see in store for them this year? Can either get to #2 or #3 starter status? ?

Brad Johnson: I’d rather bet on Keller as a starter. I just really think Cease is a reliever. At the very least, I’d like the White Sox to set him loose in the pen and see if he can pull a Carrasco.

Sox Fan: No you read it, but told me to Shush, and i feel my value to this thread is too important for your selfish fantasy team 🙂

diadem: Who will have a better season, Aguilar or Thames?

Brad Johnson: Well, Aguilar has an easier path to full time reps.

Brad Johnson: But Thames should crush him on a rate-basis

Brad Johnson: I’m really out on Aguilar.

Rich: Thanks, that sort of does respond on Calhoun and low barrel rate, though, and means we should probably take both those indicators are somewhat bearish even with excellent bat to ball/contact skills.

Marcus Semien: will I retain 90% of last years value or ill I regress into “just another SS” again. Was last year a fluke?

Brad Johnson: I’ve had a hard time with Semien this winter. I’m not inclined to buy at 90% of 2019, but I’m also not ready to declare he’ll go full pumpkin.

Brad Johnson: For one, if the baseball was driving the surge, we don’t know which ball we’re getting this year.

Damomen: Who leads the orioles in saves this year? Givens? Harvey? Tbd?

Brad Johnson: I like Givens for a rebound

Brad Johnson: He had a weird HR-prone year, and he’s never been that guy

Brad Johnson: Almost as if maybe certain teams knew what he was throwing…

Brad Johnson: his stuff and command (such as it is) appeared to be intact.

DeepKeeper: Can you rank these guys in a 20team keeper for SP depth? Eovaldi, Bailey, Mahle, Smyly?

Brad Johnson: Yea, you’ve got it.

Brad Johnson: I finished 2019 with all four of those players on a 20-team, keep 28 roster

Brad Johnson: I only kept Eovaldi.

Brad Johnson: Well, technically I traded Rowdy for Mahle after the season then later decided to cut him.

Guest: Domingo Santana: .270-80-25-90-15 possible?

Brad Johnson: If the phrasing is “possible” then it’s hard to say no

Brad Johnson: That’s extremely bullish though. I’m expecting closer to like .255/.15/45/45/6

Brad Johnson: Time to wrap it up. First I need to warm my tea, which I forgot I had for an entire hour.

Brad Johnson: ah better

Vegan Man!: I need speed in my 10 team roto. How early is too early to grab Mallex? Debating him at 14.6. Thanks!

Brad Johnson: That seems early. Also, it’s 10-team and you’re in our 25-team dynasty so I think you can handle lighting a 14th rounder on fire if you really want Mallex.

5×5 roto: Victor Reyes…275,  65, 15, 55, 35… are you taking the over/under?

Brad Johnson: Under

Brad Johnson: Reyes is a cool player who I’ve been following for years. The median outcome is still “why is he in the majors?”

Brad Johnson: Granted, his defense can keep him afloat as a sort of new Peter Bourjos

Kevin: Semien and baseball- I dont undertand the discussions and hesitations on the baseball. If the baseball is less bouncy, Semien power number regress but so does the leagues, so his skill gains matter more than the ball right? This applies to everyone not just Semien

Brad Johnson: The baseball effect appears to have been extremely asymmetric.

Brad Johnson: Specifically with regards to Semien, it’s hard to point to any areas of substantive improvement.

Brad Johnson: It reads very much like the time Rich Aurilia hit a billion bombs

Kyle Tucker’s mom: Will my boy finally get his shot or is Dusty Baker going to screw him by playing Josh Reddick. He has nothing left to prove in AAA.

Brad Johnson: Josh Reddick

Brad Johnson: I wrote about him everyday in the Daily Grind when it was a streaming column for half a decade.

Brad Johnson: This is his victory lap!

Mary Ann: Which Post Hype player do you expect to have the biggest return this year? One for hitting and one for pitching please.

Brad Johnson: This is a good place to end. And I’ll take a moment to compose my thoughts.

Brad Johnson: Bradley Zimmer. The Indians will be starting him in the minors, but they still need some OF firepower. And his mutant huge-man speed is still in evidence.

Brad Johnson: You know, the player profile I wrote for Nick Pivetta earlier this winter could be summarized as “forget this guy”

Brad Johnson: But I read he spent the winter in the same pitching lab as Giolito and now I’m curious again.

The Skipper: Thanks for the chat!

Brad Johnson: ‘Twas a pleasure. Now it’s time to go make a Tout Wars pick. Wish me luck. It’s probably Eugenio Suarez at 85th.

Brad Johnson: good game

TP: Keep forever league – Judge or Meadows?

Brad Johnson: Push. Consider your time horizons

AC: Most reps at 3B for the Phillies this year: Kingery, Segura, Bohm, or someone not currently in the organization?

Brad Johnson: Kingery

Gilligan: Franimal more valuable than Hoskins in 5×5?  no position concerns

Brad Johnson: No