Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/12/2019
by Brad Johnson
February 12, 2019
The chat is complete. Read the transcript below.
While you wait, I have goodies to advertise for new and existing patrons. If you like Out Of The Park baseball, I have five free digital keys available. I’m also looking for testers for my Top Tout league design. Last but not least, if you need keeper advice, sign up now to get a detailed review of your roster and decision points.
| 3:50 |
: We’ll start in a few minutes
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| 3:50 |
: Nice
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| 3:56 |
: Is there something that shows stats you should aim for from your starting lineup as a total? For example, to finish in the top 3 of runs scored, your team needs at least 1000 runs. That sort of thing
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| 3:57 |
: You can backwards engineer something of that nature based on your league settings. Since leagues are so non-standard these days, there’s not a lot of value in putting out a general number.
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| 3:57 |
: You need to take your settings, feed a bunch of projections into a spreadsheet, and sprinkle on some excel magic dust
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| 3:58 |
: Keep 1 at the same price 12 team OBP: Devers or Muncy
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| 3:58 |
: Muncy me for 2019. If you’re squinting at future years too, then maybe Devers.
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| 3:58 |
: Hi Brad, please help me with my final keeper spot. H2H points league: Conforto in rd 15 or Ohtani DH in rd 20. We have 5 OF spots and 2 UTIL, so position is not really a concern. Thanks!
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| 3:59 |
: This is challenging without knowing a lot more. If it’s 12 team or shallower, I might take the Ohtani stash. I love Conforto though. I think he’s an easy top 50 pick despite an over 100 ADP.
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| 4:00 |
: I don’t think I can be more helpful tbh
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| 4:01 |
: It’s a good conundrum to have – they’re both great long term values.
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| 4:01 |
: Keeper league – Victor Robles for Matt Ohlson?
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| 4:01 |
: So EZ Robles
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| 4:01 |
: After listening to Nick and Sporer, I’m curious what your take is on Merrill Kelly.
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| 4:01 |
: I’ll be honest, I must be missing something because I just don’t see anything worth fussing over
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| 4:02 |
: Granted, a near 100 ranking isn’t really “fussing”
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| 4:04 |
: Yea, I’m not sure why we wouldn’t expect Matt Andriese to get the 5th SP job with Taijuan eventually stepping back in. Sure, teams routinely need more SP so Kelly will get some chances
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| 4:05 |
: But the skill set isn’t all that exciting. Besides, the Rays don’t just throw away good arms
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| 4:05 |
: That’s a pretty strong signal
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| 4:06 |
: Hey Brad. Thanks again for the help a couple of weeks ago. I doubt you remember but I traded yelich for mondesi/suarez. Now I am agonizing over my 5th keeper. 5X5 12 man auction league ($300). Can you rank these guys: $34 cole, $23 rendon, $14 flaherty and $5 wheeler?
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| 4:06 |
: I’d keep Rendon.
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| 4:06 |
: Who do you prefer as a bench bat this year in a points league: Marcus Semien or Kiké Hernandez? I am leaning towards Hernandez because of positional eligibility (2B/SS/OF) and the gains he made in plate discipline last year.
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| 4:06 |
: I’d bank Semien’s frequent starts
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| 4:07 |
: You typically use bench guys on days with shallow schedules. If they A’s are playing, you get Semien’s stats.
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| 4:07 |
: If the Dodgers are paying, chances are Hernandez is not.
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| 4:07 |
: Would you be able to run a poll to find the average auction inflation for people that have calculated it? Mine came out to $1.27
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| 4:08 |
: I can look into better polling software for an article. As for JotCast polls, not so much.
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| 4:08 |
: The ottoneu slack community might have something for you
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| 4:08 |
: And my ottoneu Discord channel probably has a couple who have calced it too
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| 4:09 |
:
Ottoneu auction inflation
Less than $1.15 (7.1% | 1 vote)
Between $1.15 and $1.20 (7.1% | 1 vote)
Between $1.20 and $1.25 (28.5% | 4 votes)
Between $1.25 and $1.30 (28.5% | 4 votes)
Greater than $1.30 (28.5% | 4 votes)
Total Votes: 14
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| 4:10 |
: Would you keep any of $73 betts, $64 sale, $30 realmuto, $28 khris davis, or $27 segura in a keeper league with $300 budget? 6×6 roto with OPS and QS as additional categories
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| 4:10 |
: I would cut Segura for sure.
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| 4:10 |
: The others all bear considering depending on your opportunity costs.
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| 4:11 |
: I’d call those taut prices
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| 4:11 |
: Does Garrett Hampson find his way to 450+ PAs this year?
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| 4:11 |
: That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it?
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| 4:11 |
: Nobody knows. I can give you my guess (no), but it’s just a guess.
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| 4:13 |
: Where does Adley Rutschman sit in the top 100 prospects if he were eligible? 10? 50? 99?
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| 4:13 |
: Approximately 15 to 25 I think
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| 4:13 |
: Right now. A goodly number of those guys will graduate.
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| 4:13 |
: Any SPs outside the top 20 who would provide a boost in the K/BB category?
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| 4:14 |
: Many. I’ll go find a few besides Nick Pivetta.
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| 4:14 |
: Morton, Folty, Heaney, Gray, Porcello, Bundy, Marco Gonzales
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| 4:15 |
: I’m on the fence between being a steady contender and a quick re-tooling in a points dynasty. Got offered Adell, Alex Reyes, Porcello and Gennett for Kershaw, Corbin, and Doolittle.
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| 4:17 |
: I like the idea of turning pitchers into young bats, but this isn’t the right offer. Adell still comes with a wide range of fantasy outcomes. I’d want an even bigger bat. I’m assuming this is a fairly shallow league too (i.e. 12 team?)
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| 4:17 |
: What do you make of Barreto this year?
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| 4:17 |
: Blocked but interesting.
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| 4:17 |
: I’ll have late fliers on him in deep formats
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| 4:18 |
: After the Lindor news broke (he is my best keeper at the best price by far), I was presented with a very fair offer of some surplus draft picks for Carlos Correa. Do I take it? I was hoping to use those picks to package together for a frontline starter (h2h points league after all).
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| 4:18 |
: I don’t see any reason to panic over Lindor’s injury if you want to explore some alternatives.
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| 4:19 |
: Is it a year too early to draft Wander Franco (late round) in a keep 5 league? We can keep in an NA slot, but I don’t want to burn that through 2022
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| 4:19 |
: Probably, but he’s so hyped that somebody else will grab him
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| 4:19 |
: Which is fine unless he’s a guy you simply must have
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| 4:19 |
: I like letting my rivals inefficiently use their roster space and keeper slots
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| 4:20 |
: Thanks for debunking Merrill Kelly been confounding me all offseason. Are you also willing to shoot down Astudillo who doesn’t yet have a catching job, while his adp is starting to drop among C in NFBC he is still being drafted as a C1.
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| 4:20 |
: I too worry about Astudillo’s role, but the skill set is so unique that it’s hard to completely abandon the wagon
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| 4:20 |
: Jimmy Nelson, yay or nay?
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| 4:20 |
: Meh
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| 4:21 |
: It was never assured that he’d repeat his good 2017 last season. Now we have that uncertainty and a linger injury
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| 4:21 |
: Dynasty farm pick…would you rather have Jazz Chisholm or Jarred Kelenic. I’m not worried about position, just about offensive upside. Thanks!
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| 4:21 |
: EZ Kelenic for me
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| 4:21 |
: Seems like everyone is hedging and splitting projections. No one has given a real hardline stance yet.
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| 4:22 |
: I mean, they’ll probably use 3 catchers with a lot of rotation
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| 4:22 |
: And Garver still has options if I’m not mistaken
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| 4:22 |
: Brujan or Lux?
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| 4:22 |
: Vidal
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| 4:23 |
: What did people call the relievers-only strategy in the old days? I feel like it had a handy 4-letter acronym back in the 00s but I can’t find it. Also is that strategy a good look now that SPs throw 4 innings and lose their jobs because they went through a single bad stretch and they play for the Dodgers?
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| 4:23 |
: That was part of the LIMA strategy (Low Investment Mound Ace)
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| 4:23 |
: That was when nobody rostered good non-closing relievers
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| 4:23 |
: And it was possible to own ALL of them because there were only 4 in the league
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| 4:24 |
: It’s not an effective strategy in a league with 100 relievers throwing upper-90s with wipeout offspeed stuff
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| 4:24 |
: Kristian Robinson or George Valera?
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| 4:24 |
: Robinson for me. But we’re talking about two very young players with a wide range of outcomes still
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| 4:24 |
: Does Carter Kieboom make any impact with the Nats this year? 150PAs?
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| 4:25 |
: I wouldn’t bet on it. Needs an injury to open the door.
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| 4:26 |
: Too early to pop Jasson Dominguez in long term dynasty minors?
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| 4:26 |
: Not at all
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| 4:26 |
: R. Lovelady or Enyel de los Santos?
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| 4:26 |
: I’ll take Enyel as there’s at least still a chance for a SP outcome.
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| 4:27 |
: Gun to your head and you have to take pitching prospects. What type of pitching prospects intrigue you more? Stuff or athletic/command pitchers?
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| 4:27 |
: I want athletic/stuff pitchers. Like Sixto.
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| 4:27 |
: Who are you taking in a Dynasty roto league with OPS instead of AVG? Eugenio or Devers?
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| 4:28 |
: That depends on if you’re contending, rebuilding, or somewhere in between.
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| 4:28 |
: Devers is the better long term asset. Suarez is MUCH better right now
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| 4:28 |
: Is Corey Ray in the same situation needing an injury with that OF in MIL?
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| 4:28 |
: I don’t think Corey Ray is a major leaguer
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| 4:28 |
: I see Jabari Blash
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| 4:29 |
: I had a super good question I wanted to ask you on your last chat. I forgot it…
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| 4:29 |
: Dammit, LittleTuna, you’re supposed to be with your tutor! Stop posting in chatrooms.
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| 4:29 |
: How comfortable are you with Vlad, Soto or Eloy being your most expensive auction buy in a start up dynasty?
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| 4:29 |
: Pretty comfortable. Vladito and Soto are top 10 assets. Eloy is somewhere in the top 30
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| 4:30 |
: Any bounceback closers you like this year for cheap(ish) saves? Giles? Melancon? Colome? Knebel?
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| 4:30 |
: Yes, those guys. Melancon is a guy I’ve been talking about a lot.
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| 4:31 |
: He’s further distanced from those injuries and the Giants will probably trade Smith and Watson.
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| 4:31 |
: I’m a first round talent, and don’t you forget it, Bradley.
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| 4:31 |
: If I don’t secure Goldy or Freddie in the 2nd round of a 15 team keeper, do I draft Rizzo early or hope to get Votto or Abreu in 4th? I don’t have a 3rd round pick and Belly is already kept.
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| 4:32 |
: I would lock in Rizzo. I can’t imagine Goldy/Freddy lasting if there are players off the board.
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| 4:32 |
: I’m still taking Goldy well within the top 10 personally. I don’t understand why he’s fallen down the draft board after an amazing season
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| 4:32 |
: It’s nonsense
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| 4:32 |
: Does Jeff McNeil’s fantasy outlook improve or get worse with a move to OF?
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| 4:33 |
: He’s still more or less blocked. The Mets have to decide Broxton is unplayable since Nimmo’s not ideally a CF.
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| 4:33 |
: If you like Sixto then you must like the return Miami got for Realmuto? Not concerned about injury?
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| 4:33 |
: Always concerned about injury to pitching prospects
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| 4:33 |
: Always.
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| 4:33 |
: I think it was a win-win swap
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| 4:33 |
: The Marlins were vindicated for playing hardball in negotiations
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| 4:34 |
: The Phillies, assuming they eventually sign Harper or Machado, come out as bonafide on paper contenders.
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| 4:35 |
: Are you concerned about Soto’s high ground ball rate? I feel like people are a little too rosy on him. In a h2h OBP categories league with $5 inflation each year, rather keep him or Carpenter?
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| 4:35 |
: I assume Soto is much cheaper?
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| 4:36 |
: I’m not bothered by his GB rate.
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| 4:36 |
: Dig beyond the surface level GB/LD/FB and there’s a lot to like
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| 4:37 |
: Really optimal launch angles which should support enough HR/FB to routinely top 20 HR. .300/.425/.550 slash lines are only like the 70th percentile outcome
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| 4:37 |
: And he’s 20
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| 4:38 |
: If healthy, does Ray Black have a chance to close some games this year?
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| 4:38 |
: I won’t say no. He’s not exactly a polished pitcher though.
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| 4:38 |
: Needs to improve dramatically
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| 4:39 |
: I know he throws hard, but that doesn’t mean he’s a must-be major leaguer
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| 4:39 |
: How many prospects do you typically keep in ottoneu leagues? does it vary with highly ranked prospects v longshots?
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| 4:39 |
: I avoid longshots altogether
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| 4:39 |
: I range from 0 to 6 or so
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| 4:40 |
: Just depends on how many vets my rivals allow me to convert into $2 assets
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| 4:40 |
: If you search the ottoneu tag, you’ll find my keeper rosters from this year pretty quickly.
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| 4:41 |
: I wound up with a bunch of prospects in FanGraphs Staff 2 and zero in FanGraphs Staff (1)
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| 4:41 |
: 10tm. $260 budget, H2H 7×6 (with XBH, OBP, QS).
Trade $5 Haniger and $6 Cano for $9 Taillon and $6 Clevinger? Seems even, but workhorses feel ever-important. What to make of Haniger (lineup) and Cano (Chili Davis)? |
| 4:41 |
: I like the gamble. Easier to replace those offensive pieces in 10-team
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| 4:41 |
: My league is switching from W to QS this year, and my thinking is that is going to limit quite a few SP targets with how SP is trending. I’m planning to be very cautious on any team using openers, and any pitchers with “3rd time through” concerns, or NL pitchers. Would you discount those type of arms in a QS format too?
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| 4:42 |
: Yea. Or more to the point, go hog on elite pitchers. But you’ll have a lot of competition.
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| 4:42 |
: This is why I hate QS leagues
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| 4:42 |
: You kinda have to go after elite arms. There are only a few Rick Porcello types who sorta fall through the cracks.
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| 4:43 |
: I don’t like formats that force me to compete for the exact same 15 players as everybody else.
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| 4:43 |
: Re: soto…..soto and carp would both be $18
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| 4:43 |
: Well, that’s an expensive Soto. What’s the inflation like on future years?
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| 4:43 |
: Any concern at all about Matt Chapman’s injury/surgery having an impact on 2019?
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| 4:44 |
: Sure, he’s a candidate for a slow start
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| 4:44 |
: I’m eagerly sharpening my knives to send out 10 offers on May 1
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| 4:44 |
: (I have 17 leagues, I’m not sending 10 offers to one owner)
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| 4:44 |
: Do you have any reservations on typical performances out of Kershaw and Altuve this year.
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| 4:44 |
: I wouldn’t pencil in more than 160 IP for Kershaw
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| 4:45 |
: That’s still a top 50 outcome
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| 4:45 |
: Altuve I’m buying as if 2018 didn’t happen
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| 4:45 |
: Well not quite
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| 4:45 |
: but I’m super excited to get him around pick #10
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| 4:45 |
: In FGPTS, how would you rank the following: Freeman, Votto, Rizzo, Goldschmidt?
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| 4:45 |
: Goldy, Freeman, Votto, Rizzo
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| 4:46 |
: Do you think Ke’Bryan Hayes will break the Majors this year and offer any value?
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| 4:46 |
: I doubt he’ll “break” the majors, but he could make an appearance
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| 4:46 |
: (hilarious, I know)
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| 4:46 |
: I wouldn’t bank on getting value. He’s more known for his defense than bat. Probably a guy who has to take time adjusting.
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| 4:47 |
: Is either Brandon Finnegan or Jeff Hoffmann worth stashing in a deeper league?
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| 4:47 |
: Oof, I don’t think so
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| 4:47 |
: I’d rather try Derek Holland or Shelby Miller tbh
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| 4:47 |
: Re: soto….inflation on either would be $5 per year (contract system). So a 2 year contract after this year would cost $28 per year. (for context, studs go around $40)
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| 4:47 |
: I think I’d bet on Soto
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| 4:47 |
: will danny jansen be worth the $3 price tag in 4×4 ottoneu?
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| 4:47 |
: Very likely
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| 4:47 |
: Thoughts on Vidal Brujan? Any chance he makes the TB roster at any point this season?
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| 4:48 |
: I don’t have any saucy scouting takes
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| 4:48 |
: He’s a heavily hyped man, but I don’t expect a 2019 debut
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| 4:48 |
: The Rays are… cautious.
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| 4:48 |
: I don’t even expect to get a look at him in Durham (I live nearby)
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| 4:48 |
: Is Danny Janssen worth keeping for $8 in a $260-cap, 1-catcher, 12-team 6×6 (OBP) league? I would love to have a little stability at the position.
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| 4:49 |
: I think that’s a bit much.
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| 4:49 |
: You CAN do it, it’s not like overpaying $4 is going to cripple your draft.
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| 4:49 |
: Strategic overpays at weak positions can be fine.
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| 4:50 |
: So long as you’re getting enough value elsewhere.
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| 4:50 |
: What’s your take on Julio and Luis Urias this year?
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| 4:50 |
: I love Luis in dynasty formats as he’ll probably progress slowly
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| 4:50 |
: I like guys who have a high floor but aren’t flashy upon reaching the majors
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| 4:50 |
: Makes it easy to buy them cheaply and profit later
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| 4:51 |
: How would you rank the following SS prospects for fantasy value in a 14 team OPS league: Andres Gimenez, Luis Garcia (PHI), Luis Garcias (WAS), Marco Luciano, Gavin Lux, Sherwyn Newton
|
| 4:51 |
: Luis Garcia, Andres Gimenez, Marco Luciano, Luis Garcia, Gavin Lux, Shervyen Newton
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| 4:52 |
: We’re talking like next 6 years though, right?
|
| 4:52 |
: If you’re looking at more instant gratification, Lux, Garcia, and Gimenez are much closer to the majors.
|
| 4:52 |
: Who would you prefer as a late round grab in a dynasty keeper league – Jo Adell or Jesus Luzardo?
|
| 4:53 |
: Adell for long term value. Luzardo for 2019 production.
|
| 4:53 |
: Worth owning as a C2?
|
| 4:53 |
: In a sufficiently deep league, sure. Maybe not for 12-teams
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| 4:53 |
: I don’t have him as a late-draft flier
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| 4:53 |
: Just to see if anything happens
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| 4:54 |
: dominic smith–big enough MLB sample size to forget about as productive player?
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| 4:54 |
: I wouldn’t completely cross off his name, but he’s more of a guy to watch list than own
|
| 4:54 |
: I’ve got next pick in my dynasty league, who do I go with? Waters, Bohm, Hampson, Gimenez, Lux, Luciano on the board
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| 4:55 |
: if the league is deep, I’d do Luciano. He’s the most likely of those to turn Wander Franco hypemon
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| 4:55 |
: A shallower format makes the near-majors guys like Hampson and Gimenez more attractive
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| 4:56 |
: In dynasty leagues for rebuilding teams, do you think it’s better to sell Kluber now or later? People are concerned on his future, will that be more or less so as we approach the All Star Break?
|
| 4:56 |
: You should be continually shopping him. The sooner you can sell him the better. Even so, it’s not a sell-at-all-costs scenario
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| 4:56 |
: You need an offer to pass a certain point in quality.
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| 4:56 |
: The Realmuto trade is instructive
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| 4:57 |
: I take it from your response above that you’re not concerned about Matt Chapman for the 2019 season overall (outside of slow start potential)? [selfish part of the question] – i’m picking between him at $4 and a $25 Cole (or $11 Clev) for my 7th/final keeper in a keep forever. Heavily leaning to keeping Chapman and just redraft Cole/Clev at a $10 premium . . .
|
| 4:58 |
: I think that’s a reasonable approach
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| 4:58 |
: Nor do I think taking Cole at $25 is wrong either (without knowing a lot more).
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| 4:58 |
: Frequently, our final choices are a variety of good scenarios
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| 4:59 |
: In the spirit of opportunistic trading… How did I do in trading my James Paxton? I traded Paxton for Diego Cartaya and Luis Patino
|
| 4:59 |
: That’s a big investment in 2023
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| 5:00 |
: I wouldn’t have traded my dynasty share for them, but that’s because I’m heavily win-now. I fully plan to ride Paxton until he’s dust.
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| 5:01 |
: There’s a chance you’ll almost immediately win
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| 5:01 |
: I’m edgy about Paxton the Yankee
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| 5:01 |
: feels like the range of outcomes is between unplayable to top 5 SP
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| 5:01 |
: BTW for the Paxton question my league’s ageism is strong and Patino as the centerpiece was my best offer
|
| 5:02 |
: How valuable is Muncy in a dynasty league? I know you are a believer, but is he any more valuable than Hicks or Pollock?
|
| 5:02 |
: Probably not
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| 5:02 |
: Maybe the same asset class. Depends a bit on use case, but I’d usually bet on Pollock > Hicks > Muncy
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| 5:03 |
: Alright the comments are slowing down and I started a bit early so I’m going to call it
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| 5:03 |
: Time to wrap up!
|
| 5:03 |
: Re w/QS: Thanks, elite is where I was thinking I may need to go. Here is a crazy question… I have the #1 pick, any chance that pushes consideration for Scherzer (DeGrom/Sale) over Trout?
|
| 5:03 |
: I would almost never not pick Trout
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| 5:03 |
: And the almost scenarios are entirely composed of Acuna and Vladito
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| 5:04 |
: League would have to be insanely designed to make a SP preferable
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| 5:04 |
: Wait! We can’t end before I feel better about getting Reynaldo Lopez! lol
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| 5:04 |
: Did you ask a question about him? I didn’t see it 
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| 5:04 |
: I don’t care if you like him…. Sell me on Reynaldo Lopez
|
| 5:05 |
: Well…
|
| 5:06 |
: the points in his favor are velocity, solid control/command, improved K-rate in the 2nd half, and a silly division
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| 5:06 |
: the best team has two offensive players
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| 5:07 |
: I could see taking a $1 flier in case he discovers some way to use his repertoire more effectively.
|
| 5:07 |
: What do you expect from Julio Urias this year…?
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| 5:07 |
: Mostly bullpen innings?
|
| 5:07 |
: What’s your take on Ke’Bryan Hayes?
|
| 5:07 |
: Already been here. Near-term the defense is a strong skill than his bat.
|
| 5:08 |
: In a dynasty startup auction league, what would you recommend the hitter/pitcher split be? I am in one and I have found myself at 75/25%. 16 team league, and I don’t mind my staff (Marquez, Tanaka, Hendricks, Pivetta, Darvish, Keuchel).
|
| 5:08 |
: Yea, it should be pretty extreme imo
|
| 5:08 |
: Maybe 85/15
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| 5:09 |
: But if everybody is doing that, pushing to 65/35 can give you an acey staff
|
| 5:09 |
: so… like everything, it depends
|
| 5:09 |
: Cole tucker outlook similar to Hayes?
|
| 5:09 |
: No. I don’t see them as comparable.
|
| 5:10 |
: Carlos Rodon expectations for 2019? Decent or trash?
|
| 5:10 |
: There’s a lot of middle ground between those two
|
| 5:10 |
: And he’ll probably be in there.
|
| 5:10 |
: Betts for Vlad Jr. straight up in dynasty. Who ya got?
|
| 5:10 |
: In my deeper dynasties, I’d take Vlad
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| 5:11 |
: Shallow, go Betts
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| 5:11 |
: I see Trea Turner being consistently talked about as a 1rst round pick, and last year top 5. Both years on the Fangraphs auction calculator for 12 team roto obp leagues they had him actually returning late 2nd value. Do you think he should be shaded in obp leagues? If not, why?
|
| 5:11 |
: The OBP wrinkle hurts as it takes a plus category and turns it neutral
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| 5:12 |
: So yea, shade into the early 2nd maybe
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| 5:12 |
: A roughly 100/20/70/45/.340(OBP) line is still amazing
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| 5:12 |
: How do we know you’re the real Brad Johnson?
|
| 5:13 |
: The better question is how do you know I’m A real Brad Johnson
|
| 5:13 |
: there are a lot of us
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| 5:13 |
: and on that note, adios
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Thanks Brad for taking my questions lol