Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 12/17/2019

The chat is complete. See you in the New Year!

3:46
Brad Johnson: Welcome. Let’s kick this off.

3:47
Dave F.: When will the ATC projections be released?

3:48
Brad Johnson: You should ask @ATCNY on twitter. Or otherwise harass Ariel.

3:49
Brad Johnson: Some “hot” takes while we wait on some questions.

3:50
Brad Johnson: 1. The Diamondbacks are addicted to playing in the pricey end of the pitching pool. And, as they didn’t regret the Greinke signing, I don’t think they’ll come out on the wrong end of the Bumgarner signing

3:50
Brad Johnson: Granted pitcher injuries are always a risk

3:51
Brad Johnson: But normal aging looks like a pretty good outcome for Bumgarner. I know I’m in the minority, but I preferred him to Wheeler this winter. And my fantasy preferences are the same.

3:51
Dave: What do you think Julio Urias’s 2020 line looks like?

3:51
Brad Johnson: 120 IP, about a K per inning

3:51
Brad Johnson: maybe a high 3s ERA and 1.20s WHIP?

3:52
Brad Johnson: Might as well see how he’s used first before thinking about win rate. Lower rates if relieving, but not good enough to use in 12-mixed.

3:52
Guest: What’s the best outcome for Senzel this year? Top ___ OF?

3:53
Brad Johnson: I mean, the best case scenario has to be something like 25 HR, 20 SB, and a .300 AVG while hitting in a mid-lineup role.

3:53
Brad Johnson: I don’t think that’s a *likely* scenario

3:53
Brad Johnson: but it is around the upper bound of what’s plausible

3:54
Brad Johnson: So that’s, what? Wherever Brett Gardner was ranked?

3:54
Brad Johnson: Brantley?

3:54
Highway61: Do you ever play on Yahoo? Do you have any pull with the fantasy guys? It’s 2019 and we can’t download the player pool into excel. Oh, and Shoetani is two different players. Where do you play?

3:55
Brad Johnson: I’ve been moving off Yahoo pretty consistently. At one point, I probably had 8 or 10 leagues with them

3:55
Brad Johnson: Now I’m down to 2, and my involvement is very perfunctory

3:55
Brad Johnson: I used to have a decent online relationship with Pianowski, but we haven’t talked in ages

3:56
Brad Johnson: I’ve given up making suggestions. It’s clear they have no intention of improving the product. Yahoo will ride what they have off into the sunset with AOL and hotmail.

3:56
Brad Johnson: That’s my read of the situation

3:56
Brad Johnson: FanTrax is the obvious replacement

3:57
Brad Johnson: It can be clunky at times which is a function of its flexibility.

3:57
Brad Johnson: Yahoo is a pretty tight application because it’s extremely narrow in scope. FanTrax has the exact opposite problem.

3:57
Darren: Thoughts on fantasy impact of on Kwang-Hyun Kim to the Cardinals? Deep league target?

3:57
Brad Johnson: Yea, I think fliers are warranted until we know more.

3:58
Jake: What are your thoughts on Omar Narvaez? I’m going back and forth on him for Ottoneu. He was great last year and the move to MIL is better, but his Statcast data says he overperformed.

3:58
Brad Johnson: He’s also soooo bad defensively

3:58
Brad Johnson: A so-called contender can’t afford to be too aggressive with starting him, especially because the Brewers tend to squeeze every last drop they can out of pitcher usage

3:58
Brad Johnson: Everybody said that was an obvious move, but I thought it was a terrible fit all along.

4:00
Brad Johnson: Offensively, I think he’ll earn decently for a catcher. If you have spare cash, keep him (under $5 I assume?). Don’t cry if you need that money elsewhere for a big play.

4:00
Guest: DJL or Semien 2020 only? OBP/SLG league, no AVG

4:01
Brad Johnson: That’s a sufficiently tricky question. I’ll say Semien today just on the off chance the Yankees put together some kind of playing time crunch in the infield.

4:01
Brad Johnson: I think you could flip a coin. Or decide based on your positional needs. If you’re thinking for MI, then decide which of 2B/SS has a weaker starter.

4:01
Rusty: In re-drafts like NFBC DCs, how much of a team’s success is about identifying market/adp inefficiency vs. wise roster construction?

4:02
Brad Johnson: I tend to think roster construction is massively undervalued. I consider that my bread and butter, and I know I’m only middling with adp efficiency.

4:02
Stock: Does Miley teaming up with Derek Johnson again spike your interest in him?  Is he a 12 team mixed league play option?

4:03
Brad Johnson: Not really. I don’t see anything in the profile telling me he has something latent waiting to be unlocked.

4:03
Brad Johnson: I see him as an end game stash – the kind of guy you’re likely to stream away from as somebody exciting pops up

4:03
Brad Johnson: Don’t intentionally make a spot for him

4:04
Brad Johnson: At least that’s how I feel in mid-December.

4:04
Michael: First off, thank you for hosting this and always doing such a great job on such a consistent basis.  I have a 12 team, 12 player keeper league (no cost), pretty standard pts league scoring (QS bonus, 3 OF positions, 5 SPs, 2 RPs, 1 UTIL, no CI or MI spots) keeper question.  I’m pretty set on keeping 8 with 1B Rhys Hoskins, 2B Gleyber  Torres, SS Xander Bogaerts, 3B Alex Bregman, OF Starling Marte, SP Clevinger, SP Bieber, SP Nola. And need to help deciding on the final four from the following, C Will Smith, 2B Gavin Lux, OF Marcell Ozuna, OF Ramon Laureano, OF Kyle Tucker, SP Carlos Carrasco, SP Tyler Glasnow, SP Brandon Woodruff.  How would you rank em?  Thanks again for hosting regardless if you answer my question or not.

4:04
Brad Johnson: I definitely want Lux and Glasnow.

4:05
Brad Johnson: Your offensive setting play super shallow so even Lux isn’t a must

4:05
Brad Johnson: To that end, it’s probably wiser to lock in positions you need – Smith, Carrasco, and Woodruff

4:06
Brad Johnson: So, I’ve already changed my mind – Glasnow, Carrasco, Woodruff, and Smith.

4:06
Brad Johnson: You NEED SB so Laureano is a reasonable audible

4:06
Brad Johnson: And you need to get those SB with the two open OF slots/UTIL

4:07
Thank you for the chat!: How do you see the extra roster spot impacting pitcher usage and valuations/rankings?

4:07
Brad Johnson: I’m not seeing much fantasy bleed over tbh.

4:07
Brad Johnson: Might be some very deep formats where a burner like Gore could pile up 20 SBs in 13 PA

4:08
Brad Johnson: Mostly, it’s going to be pitchers/more rest for players we’re already not using much

4:08
Ron Kittle: 12 team 5×5 cats plus OPS, 5 keepers per team, lose pick in the round where Yahoo has them in pre-season ranks. Keeping Bellinger, Bregman, Devers, choosing between Vladdy, Eloy and Clevinger for the last two slots. What would Brad do?

4:08
Brad Johnson: Vladdy and Clev

4:08
Brad Johnson: EZ imo

4:09
Brad Johnson: Eloy is wonderful, but the format is shallow enough that you could go looking for the next Eloy rather than hoping he breaks out

4:09
Brad Johnson: I know the same could be said of Vladito. I’m still treating him like he’s future Miggy. Eloy is more like future Springer.

4:10
Highway61: Thanks for the feedback. We’ve used Yahoo since forever, and at the time when we started it was great. But convincing 13 other managers to move, when we have football and basketball leagues there as well, is a challenge.

4:10
Brad Johnson: Yea, I hear you. I haven’t tested it, but FanTrax does supposedly have tools to help import leagues

4:10
Do You Wanna Build A Stroman?: Would a vampire format work in fantasy baseball?

4:10
Brad Johnson: It does! I ran a beta of one on FanTrax last year. Requires a lot of commissioner work unfortunately.

4:11
nahtan: you willing to bet on ramón laureano replicating his numbers from last season? his bb/k ratios improved dramatically as the season progressed and he had a decent track record of plate discipline in the minors

4:11
Brad Johnson: If I’m asked to bet, it’s usually on regression. I think he’s a toolsy and streaky player

4:11
Brad Johnson: The range of outcomes is huge, especially since the Athletics have the depth to stuff him into a platoonish role if he’s struggling

4:11
nahtan: does abraham toro get enough reps with HOU to be fantasy viable in 2020?

4:12
Brad Johnson: Only if they actually do trade Correa.

4:12
Bob we had ababyitsaboy: Are you nervous about drafting any Astros players this year?

4:12
Brad Johnson: I haven’t decided yet

4:12
Brad Johnson: I’ve left others to work on the Astros nonsense so I’m waiting for them to reach conclusions

4:13
Brad Johnson: My impression is no, not really.

4:13
Pete: All things being equal, is this the offseason to sell Max in your opinion?  Or is it safe to pencil in 2 years of elite (or near elite) production?

4:13
Brad Johnson: I think we’re definitely in “sell a year too soon rather than too late” territory

4:13
Brad Johnson: but that means getting a Top 1 SP return

4:13
Brad Johnson: and he’s old enough that it’s not going to be an option in some leagues

4:14
Brad Johnson: Of course, if you’re contending, you have more of a decision to make than if you’re rebuilding

4:14
CC: Ottoneu 5×5 – $230 allocated for 24 players with these guys already included. have a bunch of $20 guys, wondering if you think any should be thrown back – realmuto, jose abreu, eddie rosario, jose berrios?

4:15
Brad Johnson: I probably keep Berrios. The others look like cuts to me. I’d shop ’em all to see if I can get something interesting.

4:15
Brad Johnson: They’re all just cheap enough to maybe be keepers. They’ll go for that in auction.

4:15
Vegan Man!: Pick 4 at no cost in a OBP H2H – deGrom, Freeman, Olson, Harper, Soto, Gallo. Thanks!

4:15
Brad Johnson: 12 team?

4:15
Brad Johnson: I love stockpiling elite SP

4:16
Brad Johnson: In H2H at least. Incidentally, my roto strategy is usually light on pitching.

4:16
Brad Johnson: deGrom or Soto for me

4:16
langford: assuming the same, low-ish salary: would you rather have matt boyd or caleb smith in 2020?

4:16
Brad Johnson: Definitely Boyd

4:16
DJ Tanner: Last week you said you would spill the beans on your secret prospect ranked in the 500’s that you’re high on. Let

4:17
Brad Johnson: I guess I lied. I’m playing a long game now. He wasn’t taken in our redistro draft (picks 626 to 750) so I’ll pick him up for free late in the FYPD

4:18
Brad Johnson: Trust me when I say this isn’t a Dylan Carlson in waiting. It’s more like a Dylan Cozens…

4:18
Chonk: Got a PA projection for Garrett Hampson?

4:18
Brad Johnson: Newp

4:18
Vegan Man!: yeah, 12 team. I also have Paddack, Wheeler, Thor

4:18
Brad Johnson: degromulent

4:18
Jimmy: Olson, Rizzo, Goldy.  Rank them for 2020.

4:18
Brad Johnson: OBP? AVG?

4:19
Brad Johnson: That’s probably the order. Rizzo gets a boost in OBP

4:19
Dodger Fan: Sporer listed Kershaw as #10 ranked fantasy SP back in August. Ahead of Clevinger, Thor, and Castillo. As the name implies, I’m a Dodger fan. But that can’t be right, can it? He hasn’t even topped 180 IP in over year years …

4:20
Brad Johnson: Well, I don’t even try to rank pitchers – it’s pointless

4:20
Brad Johnson: But I would take Clevinger, Kershaw, Thor, Castillo in that order

4:20
Brad Johnson: of the 4 listed

4:20
Ham: I know you’d said you were betting on the 2019 ball to leave us alone in 2020, but it seems like it’s here to stay? Any thoughts on the most recent announcements from Rawlings/MLB? Also just like, what a weird thing to have to think about for fans watching baseball…

4:20
Brad Johnson: I treat everything MLB says about the baseball as misinformation

4:21
Brad Johnson: So, my thoughts are basically that anything they say means nothing.
I will say, I’m building in more of 2019 today than I was a week ago.

4:21
Brian: How does Rays trade for Xavier Edwards impact Vidal Brujan?

4:22
Brad Johnson: I don’t think it does

4:22
Brad Johnson: The Rays are just addicted to 2B with potential positional flexibility

4:22
Brad Johnson: I’m sure they’d like Brujan to be Zobrist

4:23
Brad Johnson: And Edwards will probably get some OF time soon

4:23
Vegan Man!: $3 Avisail in Otto worth keeping with him in MIL? Thanks!

4:23
Brad Johnson: Yes. I’d hold or sell. Not a cut that cheap.

4:23
Chris: 12 team keeper league, H2H with pitching stats W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP.  I will be keeping either Bumgarner or Manaea for a three-year contract, and cutting the other one into the draft.  Pitching is worth a ton in this league, and although I’m not 100% ready to buy Manaea’s late season results, Bum’s new location has me worried.  Who do you prefer?  I’m probably a year away from seriously contending for a title.

4:23
Brad Johnson: Bum by miles and miles

4:24
Michael: Thanks for the response!  Points league though, so no need for SBs, I’m guessing your response of Smith, Glasnow, Carrasco, Woodruff?

4:24
Brad Johnson: Oh, that complicates matters. I don’t have points values internalized at this time. But I figure replacement level for SP is still much lower than your shallow positions.

4:25
Brad Johnson: Probably not keeping smith

4:25
Brad Johnson: in points

4:25
Gator: Any of these guys have value in NL only 5X5 std roto: Haseley, Gamel, Harold Ramirez, Van meter, Berti, Tapia?

4:25
Brad Johnson: Berti for sure. Haseley as of today

4:25
Brad Johnson: and definitely Ramirez too

4:26
Brad Johnson: I’m not seeing PT for VanMeter or Gamel, but the format is shallow enough that they might be good late draft stashes in case of injury.

4:27
Brad Johnson: Tapia is also obviously a matter of PT. He shouldn’t be anywhere near the action for COL, yet he’s a great asset if they finally make room for him.

4:27
Ben: Do you have a general approach / strategy that you apply to drafting catchers in 5×5? Like for example do you look for stable BA, or seek the best counting stats ratios be damned?

4:27
Brad Johnson: It’s different every year and in every draft

4:27
Brad Johnson: The shallower the league, the more aggressive I am about getting a top guy

4:27
Brad Johnson: sometimes to my detriment

4:28
Aidan: Speaking of roster construction, how do you approach RPs in H2H with SV+H? I currently have Hader, Hendriks, Diaz and Will Smith and am projected to make a profit on all. That said, it seems like there are always options for $1 in the auction/on waivers. Would the money be better spent elsewhere?

4:28
Brad Johnson: In this case, you have the creme de la creme

4:28
Brad Johnson: Usually, I’d say go cheeeeeeeep

4:29
KilleBrews: Wait so the secret prospect wasn’t Canaan Smith?… I thought for sure I had nabbed him in the 2nd rnd….

4:29
Brad Johnson: The secret prospect was not canaan smith

4:29
Brad Johnson: That is roughly the quality of the player, although the profile is extremely different.

4:29
Daniel Castro: This is my year! Jerry Dipoto believes in me. Just a fact, not a question.

4:30
Guest: In a 14-man dynasty league with prospect rosters- how do you balance trades between prospects and major leaguers? Trying to figure out how much a guy like kopech or Mize is actually worth

4:30
Brad Johnson: My dynasties are deeper and/or don’t have a distinct prospect roster so I can’t speak from experience

4:30
Brad Johnson: My instinct is this is shallow enough to constantly burn prospects for MLB upgrades.

4:30
Brad Johnson: You should be able to get Carlson and Brujan types every year

4:31
Brad Johnson: (even if you weren’t able to get them specifically last year)

4:31
Brad Johnson: Your strengths as an owner are relevant too

4:31
Brad Johnson: The better you are at identifying prospects, the more willing you should be to trade them.

4:32
Brad Johnson: I squeeze mine to death because I’m slower than some of my industry rivals.

4:32
Lance: Is SS too crowded with talent for Carter Kieboom to move the needle this year?

4:32
Brad Johnson: Not necessarily

4:32
Brad Johnson: You shouldn’t overreach for him though

4:32
Brad Johnson: And you shouldn’t have to!

4:32
Dennis Quaid from The Rookie: 14-team points league–keeping 9. Acuna, Vladito, Biggio, Meadows, Soroka, Snell, and then 3 of: Sonny Gray (3 years), Darvish (1 year), Brendan McKay (3 years), Senzel (3 years). Any keeper thoughts?

4:33
Brad Johnson: I’m probably doing Senzel then punting the decision on the pitchers further down the road

4:33
Brad Johnson: Are you locked into those 3 years?

4:33
Michael: Thanks again!  I was right with you on keeping the 3 SPs (Carrasco, Glasnow, Woodruff) the pitching pool is very shallow, and was gonna hold Lux as well.  I was worried I might be missing something by tossing Marcel Ozuna back into the heap.

4:34
Brad Johnson: Your format starts 36 OFers and some UTILs

4:34
Brad Johnson: That’s… not many.

4:34
Brad Johnson: Ozuna might not rate in the top 36, and he’s certainly not sooo much better than the replacement options.

4:34
Vegan Man!: Currently have $16 for 11 spots in Otto H2H FGPTS. I’m high on 3 of my bench bats ($13 Haniger, $9 Winker, $5 Niko), but I’m not sure I have the financial flexibility for them. Cuts or keeps for you? Thanks!

4:35
Brad Johnson: I’d punt these decisions to late January

4:35
Brad Johnson: Definitely leaning cut on Niko though

4:35
Brad Johnson: See what you can swing together on the trade market in the meantime.

4:35
Vegan Man!: You keeping $3 Pablo Lopez in Otto? Thanks!

4:35
Brad Johnson: Probably not.

4:36
Brad Johnson: He’s a guy I’d re-target at $1-3 in draft.

4:36
Brad Johnson: And if he goes for more, I’d consider that a grenade for somebody else’s roster

4:36
Lance: I can keep Khrush Davis at $36 this season … out of a $380 budget in an OBP league. Last season he was a snap keep for me at $31 – and I need a middle of the order RBI producer – but I’m worried 10% of my budget’s a little too much for 2020. Am I reading too much into his injury last year if I cut him?

4:36
Brad Johnson: I think you have to cut him

4:36
Brad Johnson: The thing is, we keep saying he must have been injured, but it still hasn’t come out that he was.

4:37
Brad Johnson: He obviously had the injuries prior to the slump. He also supposedly recovered.

4:37
Brad Johnson: There’s a real risk he’s not playable in any sense anymore.

4:37
pop: seeing khris davis show up around 165-175 on the early 2020 ADP predictors – think that number will climb as people hedge a little more aggressively on buying low after his injury?

4:37
Brad Johnson: That said, I do want to speculate in this range.

4:37
Bob we had ababyitsaboy: Do you like MLB not testing for marijuana anymore?

4:37
Brad Johnson: Seems unnecessary to ruin minor leaguer’s careers over weed.

4:38
Guest: Yahoo, 12 team, 10 keeper. Odd man out: Kepler, C. Seager, Dylan Carlson, Wander Franco, Brandon Woodruff, Othani (SP)

4:38
Brad Johnson: I think Carlson

4:38
Brad Johnson: I’m a big fan, but that’s a very shallow league. Wander is generational, Carlson is merely quite good.

4:39
Brad Johnson: That said, Carlson will debut this year. Wander may be 2+ years out still.

4:39
Brad Johnson: Hopefully you have a NA slot

4:39
tacopocket: Hey brad.  it’s early but i’m bored so asking about keeper help.  Pick 5 out of these:   villar 19, olson 12, suarez 14, story 41, robles 4, rendon 32, robles 4, verlander 36, soroka 11, wheeler 11.   its a 5X5 12 man league with a $300 auction budget.

4:39
Brad Johnson: Olson’s the easy one. Suarez is a good value too.

4:40
Brad Johnson: After that, my gut leans Soroka, Rendon, Verlander

4:40
Brad Johnson: But that’s just a reaction. A $4 Robles might be too cheap to pass.

4:41
Brad Johnson: Especially if top pitchers max out around $40. Same re: top hitters and Rendon/Story

4:41
Brad Johnson: Just depends on what you think can be accomplished in-auction.

4:41
CC: Playing the $3 and $5 prospect game in ottoneu 5×5 – I know youre not huge into prospects but curious if you strong opinions to keep any of these guys: $3 larnach / deivi garcia / nimmo or $5 solak / brendan rodgers / keller?

4:41
Brad Johnson: I want the Keller side

4:41
Eewok : Expensive (maybe 85% Estimated auction value) Luis Castillo or %15 auction value will smith (C) dynasty league?

4:42
Brad Johnson: I’d lean Smith in this case

4:42
Vegan Man!: Is it too early to take Jasson Dominguez in a 14 team dynasty with 15 prospect roster spots? Thanks!

4:42
Brad Johnson: No

4:42
Dr. Baller: Is now a good time to sell Christian Walker in dynasty leagues? Should I feel threatened by Cron and Beer, or should I hold?

4:42
Dr. Baller: Should clarify that I also have Olson holding down first so Walker is expendable if need be

4:42
Brad Johnson: Walker is… not good.

4:42
Brad Johnson: The Diamondbacks should not be playing him over Cron

4:43
Brad Johnson: If you can even get something for him, I’d sell

4:43
Brad Johnson: Wouldn’t be shocked if you put him on the block and hear crickets.

4:43
RW: Devin Williams: SP or Reliever? Impact this year?

4:44
Brad Johnson: Seems like he’s hasn’t been a starter since 2016.

4:44
Brad Johnson: Might have some opportunities if Hader is sold

4:44
Brad Johnson: Otherwise, probably stocked in Triple-A or down in the pecking order early in the season

4:45
Vegan Man!: 12 team OBP Roto, keep 5 forever at no cost – Olson or Rizzo? DJLM, Albies, or Semien? Thanks!

4:45
Brad Johnson: Olson and… uh

4:45
Brad Johnson: I guess Albies did improve his plate discipline

4:45
Brad Johnson: modestly

4:46
Brad Johnson: So you can go maximal youth if you want

4:46
Joshua: You speculating on Mitch Haniger at all in 2020? Assuming no nutting accidents during the year.

4:46
Brad Johnson: Yea, I want cheap shares

4:46
Brad Johnson: He seems to be a hot starter too

4:47
Brad Johnson: Which will give us a quick peek at whether or not we can profit.

4:47
Dynasty: Any of these guys you think are drop-worthy in dynasty if there are flyer-worthy guys on waivers? Santanas Domingo and Danny, Renfroe, McCutchen, Domingo German, Garrett Richards, Alex Reyes?

4:47
Brad Johnson: Maybe Richards or Reyes. Gotta like the fliers though.

4:47
Brad Johnson: I’m not dropping them cuz Jeimer Candelario is floating around for instance

4:48
CC: Sorry wasn’t clear, I have all these guys rostered and was wondering who you like kept:

4:48
Brad Johnson: Between all and none depending on your fiscal capacity

4:48
Brad Johnson: Question was: ” Playing the $3 and $5 prospect game in ottoneu 5×5 – I know youre not huge into prospects but curious if you strong opinions to keep any of these guys: $3 larnach / deivi garcia / nimmo or $5 solak / brendan rodgers / keller?”

4:48
Brad Johnson: definitely keeping Keller though

4:49
Brad Johnson: I’d probably aim to turn ~3 of the non-Kellers into a pricier stud

4:49
PB: What level SP would you move Blackmon for in Dynasty?

4:49
Brad Johnson: I’d aim pretty high. An older ace.

4:50
Darren: Lamet is getting a lot of hype this offseason and Steamer loves him even more.  Overhyped or legit?

4:50
Brad Johnson: overhyped imo

4:50
Gest : Who are you picking first between Giolito and Paddack?

4:50
Brad Johnson: Giolito

4:50
Keepers: Think Ketel Marte’s breakout is legit or a juiced ball helped year?

4:50
Brad Johnson: Both

4:50
Hey: Julio Rodriguez. Seattle. Real deal.

4:50
Brad Johnson: Yep

4:50
mark: Am I a fool for believing Hunter Dozier’s going to return to his early 2019 form?

4:50
Brad Johnson: It’s a stretch imo

4:51
Brad Johnson: I think the league adjusted to him in a way he’s unlikely to counter-adjust

4:51
Brad Johnson: The result is a still good player

4:51
Brad Johnson: and there’s potential for year-to-year growth not unlike Suarez

4:51
Vegan Man!: Jordan Montgomery going to pick up where he left off? He had a lot of helium before his TJ… Thanks!

4:52
Brad Johnson: He’s definitely somebody to track

4:52
Brad Johnson: The Yankees aren’t just going to open a door for him

4:52
Brad Johnson: And his was a weird profile in the first place

4:52
Brad Johnson: Kind Carrasco-like in that there was a lot of offspeed stuff but not much to the fastball.

4:53
Brad Johnson: Or Gallen-like. We need to see his velo and if the offspeed stuff snaps back to form.

4:53
Brad Johnson: It’s likelier that he fizzles than catches fire.

4:53
Brad Johnson: cool upside play though

4:53
baseballs: Will Michael Baez get a rotation shot this year or be used in the bullpen again? Seemed pretty good in that RP role last year, but I’d assume that was just to get him “acclimated”?

4:53
Brad Johnson: The Padres tend to be pretty aggressive in how they use their pitchers

4:54
Brad Johnson: Which is as precise as I can be

4:54
Brad Johnson: I think they’ll use him aggressively in the role they like best for him

4:54
Brad Johnson: which could be either

4:54
john: who’s the rays’ closer in 2020? pagan or andersen? thanks

4:54
Brad Johnson: Yes, them. And a few others.

4:54
Brad Johnson: It’s the Rays after all

4:55
Brad Johnson: Don’t forget Castillo, Alvarado, Pache, et al

4:55
Bobby: Need pitching in a dynasty…Kershaw owner selling so what level MLB guy would you trade for him, just as a reference?

4:55
Brad Johnson: Dream would be to package a guy like Marcell Ozuna with a second piece

4:56
Brad Johnson: In my experience, the guy selling Kershaw is going to reach for whatever is most interesting on your roster.

4:56
Brad Johnson: If you’re roster is a little light on keepers, that might turn out to be very affordable

4:57
Brad Johnson: by keepers I mean youngsters

4:57
Brad Johnson: If you’re loaded, you’ll have to pay out the nose

4:57
Brad Johnson: (this happens in the majors too)

4:58
Duchess: Is surplus value treated differently at the ends of the spectrum? Like, if I have a $50 Betts (worth $60) or a $1 Verdugo (worth $11), is that the same from a value standpoint? Sounds stupid, but I feel like Betts is still more valuable.

4:58
Brad Johnson: There are… many layers to this onion

4:58
Brad Johnson: Each decision depends on every other decision. They exist as a complex economy

4:59
Brad Johnson: There are instances where one or the other are more much more valuable.

4:59
Brad Johnson: Time to wrap it up btw

5:00
Brad Johnson: One thing I’ve kept an eye on as a Trout owner is his price relative to how his owner places. There’s such a thing as the A-Rod in Texas effect. If a player is profitable by a pricing model but prevents you from rostering enough of a supporting cast, then the surplus is misleading.

5:00
Dee Arby: Last year I did no research to see how much I really knew.  Let’s just say that wasn’t the best idea.  Not doing that strategy again, what’s the best way to prepare for a shallow ten team standard league?

5:01
Brad Johnson: Honestly, do a bunch of mock drafts

5:01
Brad Johnson: I seem to be have internet problems… but not on Jotcast?

5:02
Brad Johnson: weird, resolved

5:02
Villar: Trade him now in a dynasty league? For what?

5:02
Brad Johnson: Gotta see what’s out there. And gauge what you need.

5:03
Brad Johnson: Try to combine him with a couple others for a young stud

5:03
Darren: How do you see the Marlins OF playing out?  Roster resoruce has Anderson, Brinson and Ramirez starting with Berti, Cooper, Sierra on the bench (Berti in a 2B platoon).

5:03
Brad Johnson: I think Brinson is out tbh

5:03
Brad Johnson: barring a big spring

5:03
Brad Johnson: they’ll give him that chance

5:04
Brad Johnson: Sierra might step in, or we could see a mercenary out there.

5:05
Brad Johnson: I’m not certain, but Sierra either has 1 or 0 options

5:05
Pat: Just a thank you for doing these chats!

5:05
John: thoughts on Nick Solak? keeper in AL-only?

5:05
Brad Johnson: Definitely a keeper

5:05
Brad Johnson: Might be pretty ordinary, but that’s great in Only

5:05
Guest: Crazy idea to keep Robert over Stanton in a ten Keep forever, no contracts?

5:05
Brad Johnson: Uh, yes. Nutty.

5:06
Brad Johnson: If Stanton is your 10th best keeper, then you definitely don’t need to cling to Robert

5:06
Brad Johnson: cuz you’re damned loaded

5:06
Brad Johnson: alright, good game folks

5:06
Jose Ramirez: I’m still here.

5:06
Brad Johnson: indeed!

5:07
Didi not: 3 keeper 5×5 $260 auctiondraft budget
Is a $5 Ramon lauriano worth keeping over a $11 Suarez, $5 Hiura,$17 acuna,or $39 Bregman?

5:07
Brad Johnson: I think, no.

5:07
2B: Villar or Albies in a keeper league? Same price

5:07
Brad Johnson: Albies

We hoped you liked reading Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 12/17/2019 by Brad Johnson!

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