Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 12/11/2018
by Brad Johnson
December 11, 2018
We talked a lot about Andrew McCutchen and various Mets/Yankees/Marlins rumors. Then we talked about other topics. Here’s the transcript.
| 3:53 |
: We’ll get started in a few minutes
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| 3:57 |
: Also, best baseball pun of the offseason is given the Mets track record, they’ll try to trade for Realmuto but end up with some fake muto.
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| 4:00 |
: Any former MLB players who missed all of 2018 (due to injury or playing out of the country) that might surprise in 2019? (ala Miles Mikolas or Eric Thames a couple of years ago)
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| 4:00 |
: I don’t see anybody notable on the radar, heard about a couple return attempts, but they weren’t Thames/Mikolas caliber players
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| 4:00 |
: Or even Colby Lewis
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| 4:01 |
: I’m browsing 2017 leaderboards for guys who disappeared in 2018. Corey Seager and Dinelson Lamet spring to mind, although that’s probably not what you meant.
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| 4:02 |
: Jimmy Nelson
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| 4:02 |
: Last week you said that in Ottoneu you try to leave 1.5$ for every open spot heading into the draft. So you mean you youll enter the draft needing 10 players and only have 15-20$ left? You never rely on the draft to get anything more than a 1$ flyer?
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| 4:03 |
: I never say never, but it’s unusual. Last year in FG Staff 1, I paid up for Adam Eaton and Jackie Bradley Jr. to patch a gap in OFer depth.
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| 4:04 |
: Spending about $30 on those two players wasn’t exactly a good use of cash
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| 4:04 |
: Would have rather kept a better player for the same amount
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| 4:04 |
: Which is why I wind up only drafting $1 players every year
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| 4:04 |
: In FG Staff 2 and Screw Cancer, I only took $1 guys
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| 4:05 |
: Cutch take and what else will Phillies do this offseason. Speculate if you must.
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| 4:05 |
: Let’s knock out Cutch talk
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| 4:05 |
: Some initial impressions on the contract: seems fair but also much higher than I expected
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| 4:06 |
: I thought he might go for 1/$20MM or 2/$32MM. Seems to me that if a team had decided to bucket him and Michael Brantley together, waiting out the market should have yielded a one-year contract.
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| 4:07 |
: Since teams not in the Harper/Machado sweepstakes might want to nail down options before bigger budget teams grow desperate, this might help Brantley (and Pollock)
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| 4:07 |
: Pollock was always in a good spot as a CF capable guy
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| 4:08 |
: So, I don’t think Cutch is overpaid based on the performance, but I also think he could have been cheaper
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| 4:09 |
: On the subject of performance, he hit .253/421/471 in a smallish sample as a Yankee
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| 4:09 |
: Yankee Stadium is comparable in park factors to Citizen’s Bank
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| 4:10 |
: On the team fit, the Phillies now have a versatile offense.
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| 4:10 |
: They have Cutch/Doobie/Quinn as guys who can mix and match at any spot, although you obvious prefer Cutch to not play CF
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| 4:11 |
: Williams would be a frequently used backup right now. Altherr and Kingery in the mix too. I think based on this roster, Altherr has to crush in Spring Training to make the team. He’s out of options so that means he’s a cut candidate
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| 4:11 |
: And it’s easier to get Kingery in the lineup without* Altherr around.
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| 4:13 |
: This doesn’t 100% mean they’re out on Harper, but they basically have to trade Williams if they do sign him. I think it’s likely they’re fed up with the posturing. This gives them excellent leverage in negotiations. They can still afford to field the top bid but no longer are in a position where they’re forced to bid against themselves.
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| 4:14 |
: We’ll learn more about their plans re: Harper/Machado this week I suspect
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| 4:15 |
: All four of Happ, Keuchel, Miller, and Britton are rumored to be on the Phillies wish list and could sign by the end of the Meetings. If the Phillies land multiple from this list, I think their offseason shopping will shift to trades and late-winter bargain hunting.
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| 4:15 |
: Ok, that’s out of the way.
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| 4:15 |
: Please tell me Syndergard to the Yankees / Realmuto to the Mets is not really happening.
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| 4:15 |
: Next big topic.
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| 4:15 |
: I find this difficult to swallow as a concept
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| 4:15 |
: The Amed Rosario scenario seems likelier, and that would cut out the Yankees.
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| 4:16 |
: I’m filing this under “I’ll believe it when I see it.” That said, I didn’t believe the Cano/Diaz deal would happen.
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| 4:17 |
: The Mets are not a good catcher away from being a good team, but I guess they could delude themselves into thinking that’s the case.
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| 4:17 |
: 12 team points H2H league with a heavy bias towards pitching (just 8 starts a week, big bonuses for wins and QS), need to keep 2: Gallo $11, Conforto $14, Wheeler $5. Already keeping Correa, Albies, Buehler, and Clevinger.
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| 4:17 |
: Switching to fantasy a moment…
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| 4:18 |
: I would punt this decision until later in the offseason. You’re right that these are tough decisions and I do like what we saw from Wheeler. I don’t think you can quit Conforto after his second half, and Gallo can carry a week on the HR front.
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| 4:19 |
: Though, you’re NOT in a categories league 🙂 so disregard that last note
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| 4:19 |
: I would need to see how Conforto’s second half production and a Gallo hot streak compare to 1.25 good starts per week
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| 4:20 |
: What you’ve described leads me to believe there are some tricky quirks to your league
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| 4:20 |
: Inefficiencies to exploit
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| 4:20 |
: I wouldn’t trade Syndergaard to the Yanks for anything short of Judge Torres and Realmuto. These stupid Mets….
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| 4:21 |
: Like the Cutch add for Philly, but Segura+McCutchen doesn’t seem to address their defensive disaster very well. Think they will improve defensively through player acquisition or through improved analytics?
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| 4:21 |
: I dunno about that. Gimme a second to pull up some figures.
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| 4:23 |
: so Hoskins was a -17.4 defender, Cutch was roughly a zero in a OF corner
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| 4:23 |
: So that’s nearly a 2 win upgrade there
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| 4:24 |
: Their shortstops graded out about neutral. Same for Segura.
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| 4:24 |
: So yea, it’s about a 2 win upgrade on defense
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| 4:24 |
: So as a Thor dynasty owner, should I be hoping he goes to the Bronx? Better offense around him, better medical staff, but worse ballpark. Also, what are the Mets smocking?
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| 4:24 |
: We’ll get to other topics a little later, I’m going to focus on these right now since they’re breaking news
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| 4:25 |
: I don’t think I want Thor in AL East ballparks
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| 4:25 |
: But you can expect a few extra wins in exchange for more HR
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| 4:25 |
: CitiField is practically the best venue for pitchers these days
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| 4:25 |
: Yankees Stadium is on the exact opposite end of the spectrum
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| 4:26 |
: Isn’t Syndergaard a massive long term health risk?
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| 4:26 |
: Yea, but you don’t roster an ace for long term purposes anyway
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| 4:26 |
: Syndergaard is certifiably Good. Rosario still has potential and has shown flashes, but he’s also shown a very severe downside. The Mets’ only good prospect also happens to be a SS, one who should be ready later in the season. So unless they know something about Thor we don’t, why would they want to trade him more than they want to trade Rosario?
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| 4:27 |
: The aforementioned risks associated with pitching
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| 4:27 |
: An issue with Thor is that his skill set has gone from unique to commonplace
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| 4:27 |
: And I think we saw that reflected in his performance last season
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| 4:28 |
: He has to learn to improve as a pitcher. Unfortunately, he missed most of the time during which his competition (hitters) improved.
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| 4:28 |
: So he didn’t get to grow with them
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| 4:28 |
: Rosario is risky, but he’s under club control a long time and hitting prospects rarely disappear due to injury
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| 4:29 |
: Why wouldn’t the Mets keep Thor and just sign Ramos or something?
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| 4:29 |
: They’re employing a Bold Strategy
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| 4:29 |
: Which I’m quite certain is how Van Wagonen got the job
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| 4:29 |
: Cutch to the Phils, looking like they’ll pursue Manny harder than Bryce. White Sox seem to have a real shot at Harper, no?
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| 4:30 |
: Definitely. Though it really feels like the Dodgers are trying to figure it out. And it’s going to be hard for the White Sox to beat them if LA is determined
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| 4:30 |
: Dynasty team between contending and rebuilding. Is trading Bum for Devers a fair deal?
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| 4:31 |
: No, but in the opposite direction. Devers is a far better dynasty asset.
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| 4:31 |
: Assuming it’s relatively deep
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| 4:31 |
: If you’re talking 10 team or shallow roster 12 team, then it could favor Bumgarner
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| 4:31 |
: Though I’d still probably take Devers and hope for the best
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| 4:31 |
: BoSox rumors about trading Xander all smoke designed to up price on Machado, or you think there is real fire there?
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| 4:32 |
: I don’t think they’re intentionally messing with the market. I also think this is one of those classic “we never had that conversation” rumors
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| 4:32 |
: 12 team mixed roto. Pick two to keep: Paxton, springer and Rhys. Thanks
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| 4:32 |
: I’d take the hitters
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| 4:33 |
: I like Paxton a lot though if you’re worried about not having enough pitching. I’d keep Rhys over Springer
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| 4:33 |
: Is Wander Franco already the sort of hold on to no matter what (unless a great package comes along) type prospect in a keep forever league, or is it too early for that to hold in a short bench dynasty?
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| 4:33 |
: Hold him at least for this season. There’s still a chance the hype needs to be adjusted downward.
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| 4:34 |
: But if that doesn’t happen, then you have a monster asset
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| 4:34 |
: Sticking with SD, does a Cobb/Myers contract swap seem to make some sense? Is Cobb even a viable SP anymore?
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| 4:34 |
: Not really, Myers is a legit decent player. Cobb flashes viability – kind of like James Shields does at times – but the overall profile is scary
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| 4:34 |
: More importantly, the Padres have a LOT of pitchers on staff
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| 4:35 |
: Miguel Andujar leaving New York??
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| 4:35 |
: I called this ages ago.
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| 4:35 |
: Not at all surprised to find his name in the rumor mill
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| 4:35 |
: He’s not a Yankees-caliber player – at least not long term
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| 4:36 |
: They’re always going to try to upgrade guys like Andujar. But that presupposes they can land Machado
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| 4:36 |
: Hey Brad! Starting to think about keepers for an early deadline next year. 12 team roto (standard format, weekly lineups), keep 7, $260 budget. Who are your last 2 keepers between: $25 G. Cole, $29 Blackmon, $5 Villar, $4 Matt Chapman, $4 Tim Anderson? (my 5 definite-keeps are $34 Betts, $16 JDM, $15 Bryant, $26 Acuna, and $21 Hoskins).
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| 4:36 |
: That’s… tricky
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| 4:38 |
: My gut instinct is to go with Cole/Blackmon for the more bankable production then try to re-up the others at cheap rates again. Even if you don’t get those specific players, the stats should be available in a 12-team weekly
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| 4:38 |
: I do like Chapman quite a bit, but if it’s not an OBP league, the surplus on $4 might be modest.
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| 4:38 |
: Anderson is the easiest cut for me of that group
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| 4:39 |
: He walks a tightrope between decent roto contributor and unplayable. Any extended injury-fueled slump would look like .210/.245/.350
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| 4:39 |
: It was nice to see him run more last season though
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| 4:39 |
: I haven’t helped much on this one, have I?
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| 4:39 |
: What does a “Build around” mean to you in a fantasy (dynasty) context? Anything beyond being just a stud player?
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| 4:40 |
: Somebody who can help you dominate one category or contributes at above average rate to everything
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| 4:40 |
: So yea, pretty much only monster players
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| 4:40 |
: What do you see McNeils role in Metsland? 3b?
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| 4:41 |
: Right now, he’s like 20% 2B and as much 3B as he can play without embarrassing the team
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| 4:41 |
: I don’t think it’s 100% out of the question that he might play 2B with Cano mostly at 1B
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| 4:41 |
: We don’t know how BVW will direct the on-field guys to handle Smith and Alonso
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| 4:42 |
: but past history says the Mets will never intentionally figure out when to use a prospect – they have to be forced into it
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| 4:43 |
: I’m trying to keep Goldy at $58, which is 27% of my team salary. It’s a dynasty league, so salaries are generally suppressed, with the exception of studs…last year Scherzer and Stanton only studs available and went to $60 each. I’m not out of my mind trying to keep Goldy, right?
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| 4:43 |
: No, that sounds plausible. I regularly drop a fifth of my budget on Trout in ottoneu.
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| 4:44 |
: You should be mentally prepared to pivot if the opportunity presents itself
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| 4:44 |
: What percentage would you give the White Sox of landing one of Machado/Harper?
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| 4:44 |
: 20?
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| 4:44 |
: 25
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| 4:45 |
: I suspect they’ll basically match the best offer for at least one of them. Whether the player chooses them or another club is another matter
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| 4:45 |
: What is Tulo in 2019? Tidbit: He is .1 WAR behind Harold Baines in about half as many plate appearances.
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| 4:45 |
: Tulo is probably done as a fantasy relevant player
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| 4:46 |
: How you feeling about Pivetta next season. Mid rotation help, back of the rotation, or smoldering hot garbage?
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| 4:46 |
: I think he’s the current version of peak Ricky Nolasco
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| 4:47 |
: Because of his park and some issues with his fastball quality, I suspect he’ll underperform his FIP/allow a lot of HR
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| 4:47 |
: But the Ks should be there, along with a decent win total
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| 4:47 |
: I was mostly joking when I told my wife this the other night, but part of me is convinced that Brodie got the job because he dazzled Jeff Wilpon who wanted a cool, slick friend. Brodie being the smooth operator that he is realized he could exploit the desperate rich kid, and here we are.
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| 4:48 |
: As good a theory as any 🙂
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| 4:48 |
: Loved the constitution. I want to drop a friend out of my football league for being very bad (under .500% 6years in a row) and cherry on top, making an egregiously (though, I am trusting, not collusively) bad trade with his BFF. Kicking him out will be fine, but I feel like I should have his replacement vetted and lined up BEFORE pulling the trigger, otherwise it will come off as personal instead of merely competitive. We’re all 30 y/o men. Uh, insight?
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| 4:48 |
: Did you know Ricky Nolasco used to sneak around eating pizza at 3am before starts?
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| 4:48 |
: Wait wha?
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| 4:49 |
: This feels like some sort of beer and fried chicken story
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| 4:49 |
: Mondesi $4 for Khris Davis $20 OBP dynasty, which side?
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| 4:49 |
: Depends on league depth
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| 4:49 |
: Very shallow, Davis
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| 4:49 |
: All others, Mondesi
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| 4:49 |
: And if picking Davis, that assumes you need serious HR help and have plenty of SB to spare
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| 4:50 |
: Very helpful, actually! I had Cole + Blackmon penciled in as well as the final two, with the same thoughts as you on the others. In 12 teamers there’s so much turnover in your last ~10 plus spots, that I’d rather spend more of my budget to keep pricey below market studs + settle for a bunch of $1-$3 back end guys in the draft than find myself stuck hunting for an ace or big bat at auction. Seems easier to find the next Tim Anderson than rely on him and let a guy like Blackmon loose.
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| 4:51 |
: Agreed – usually. You know better than me what $25-$30 can buy in your draft. Typically, these sorts of keeper leagues push Blackmon-quality players up to the $40 range on draft day. There might be a value or three on big names, but I don’t like putting my eggs in that basket
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| 4:52 |
: I’d rather just curse the draft room
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| 4:52 |
: and know what I have to work with pre-auction
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| 4:52 |
: Does “deep” and “shallow” leagues refer to the pool of non-rostered players available, or the pool of rostered players?
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| 4:52 |
: Pool of rostered players. So 10-team is shallow, 20-team is deep
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| 4:52 |
: David Samson has come out with some great tidbits since his contract finally ended w/Miami. He also called Barry Bonds the worst hitting coach he ever worked with. And the infield coach used to call up to the official scorer mid-game to get errors changed to hits to make his infielders look better
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| 4:53 |
: Barry Bonds’ understanding of hitting is notoriously terrible
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| 4:54 |
: Paraphrasing an anecdote I only half remember, he was a big believer in keeping the bat head above the ball. Or to put it another way, chopping down on the ball. When somebody pointed out to him that his bat head was actually under the ball (like every hitter), he didn’t believe it. Then when he saw the video, he thought he just took a bad swing
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| 4:55 |
: Basically every drill he used to do has been since proven to be bad for hitting
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| 4:55 |
: Guy was just some kind of mutant
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| 4:55 |
: With the lack of 200 + inning starters, how much of a premium is there on the few that are left in roto leagues?
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| 4:55 |
: This is the greatest challenge of 2019
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| 4:56 |
: And the decision to choose to overpay for old school elite SP or try to go cheap is going decide a LOT of leagues
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| 4:56 |
: But here’s the thing, they’re damned pitchers. Even if you pick the right strategy, you can still choose the wrong individuals.
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| 4:57 |
: Which is why I’ll probably go with the hitter approach in most leagues
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| 4:57 |
: Looks like I’ll be doing upwards of 20 so I’ll be sure to mix in some SP heavy ones too
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| 4:57 |
: Think Dereck Rodriguez can keep it up? Probably won’t have much in terms of Ks, but a solid innings option to help out ratios is all I need out of him.
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| 4:58 |
: I think you can probably ask that of him. Helps that he’s in SFG. Hurts that he won’t get wins.
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| 4:58 |
: Legitimately looks like he MIGHT be one of those guys who outperforms his FIP
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| 4:58 |
: I just feel like kicking a guy out of a league for not being competitive and making bad trades comes off as less personal if I have a more adept owner lined up to replace him. Like if my girlfriend left me with a plan for a better future or a more successful man or whatever, aw shucks I guess I get it? But if she left me with no plan, no where to sleep and a long winter coming up, it’d be like DAMN SHE PREFERRED ANYTHING TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ME. I don’t want to be like “YOU MY FRIEND ARE A HORRIBLE FANTASY FOOTBALL MANAGER AND ANY RIFF RAFF OFF THE STREET WOULD BE A HUGE UPGRADE OVER YOU.” Even though it’s true.
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| 4:59 |
: I forgot to answer this one didn’t I
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| 4:59 |
: Suffered a moment of “ooh shiny”
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| 4:59 |
: Here’s the thing about this, sounds like you’re basically in a league of buddies
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| 5:00 |
: You should probably just good-naturedly rag on the guy when you meet up for drinks
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| 5:00 |
: Most of the leagues I play are meant to be some version of “competitive”
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| 5:00 |
: So this idea of pushing people out to make the league better holds more water
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| 5:00 |
: friend leagues tend to be sloppy
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| 5:01 |
: If you want a competitive league, I would hunt for one with semi-strangers
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| 5:01 |
: And when Giancarlo Stanton came to him saying he needed help laying off the slider away, Bonds simply responded: “Well, don’t swing at it!”
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| 5:01 |
: Maybe Barry Bonds was secretly trying to throw everyone else off his scent, teach everyone to be horrible to keep anyone from ever approaching his greatness as a batsman. Maybe with a head that giant you’re playing games within games in your cranium!?
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| 5:02 |
: Like Arnold Schwarzenegger giving the Wrong Advices –
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| 5:02 |
: NL only league…..Miles Mikolas or Jack Flaherty for 2019?
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| 5:03 |
: I’ll take Flaherty on upside and Mikolas on floor. I’m not entirely clear on where they’re going ADP-wise yet
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| 5:03 |
: I avoid that info for as long as possible so I don’t anchor
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| 5:03 |
: Who do you prefer of Brandon Lowe and Jake Bauers? What about Nathaniel Lowe? Seems like a trade is going to have to free up one of those guys.
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| 5:04 |
: I don’t see any of them as can’t miss MLBers. I’d put the over under of just one of them being a starter caliber player at around 50%
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| 5:04 |
: long term
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| 5:04 |
: I’m sure they’ll each have their year or three where they play with some reasonable production
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| 5:05 |
: A pizza is here so it’s time to wrap it up
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| 5:05 |
: Is Alex Reyes a sell in Dynasty? Or do you believe he can stay healthy?
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| 5:05 |
: That depends on what’s available
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| 5:05 |
: I’ve shopped him in the league I own him and heard crickets
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| 5:06 |
: But those guys are big into football so they probably didn’t even open my email
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| 5:06 |
: If you’re getting paid, it’s not a bad idea to divest into something healthier
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| 5:06 |
: But I suspect the better value will be to keep Reyes
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| 5:06 |
: Go to pizza topping?
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| 5:06 |
: Pepperoni
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| 5:06 |
: Don’t mess with the classic
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| 5:06 |
: Everything else is worse
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| 5:07 |
: Although Mellow Mushroom has a fantastic potato and bacon pizza if you ever feel like blowing $28 on bread and cheese.
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| 5:08 |
: Absolutely. Last year, Rizzo went for $55 I believe (coming off his ‘down’ year) . . . Justin Upton went in the $28-$32 range . . . Darvish went for $38. Would rather keep Blackmon under $30 and Cole at $25 with those prices. As you said, it’s never fun to end up fighting with 11 others for the handful of bankable guys left, or for the last guy in a tier. Last year after most mid-tier closers went for $15-17 (more than i wanted to spend), I got in a bidding war for Trienen at $23 ($5 less than A. Chapman). . . worked out well in that case, but that was only thanks to the 95% outcome.
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| 5:08 |
: In that case, Blackmon and Cole seem like easy picks
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| 5:09 |
: Our dynasty roto league ended in a tie the day after we thought the league was over (stupid game 163). Commissioner congratulations sent out and all. We voted that we were all reasonably under the expectation that it was done, and only one of the teams had guys playing. Yahoo! was not counting that day, but CBS was. Did we make the right decision? I’m torn, because while not everyone played 163, not everyone even played 162.
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| 5:09 |
: That was a bit of a shocker. I’ve never noticed Game 163 be counted in the past, but that doesn’t mean it’s not an established tradition
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| 5:09 |
: I might just be unobservant
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| 5:10 |
: That’s one of those things that could be added to a constitution 🙂
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| 5:10 |
: (see yesterday’s article on constitutions)
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| 5:10 |
: And on that note, I’m hungry
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| 5:10 |
: Thanks for playing
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