Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 11/6/2018

Brad Johnson: Good afternoon folks. Sporer says y’all are busy voting, but maybe that’s not true. Who wants a baseball break?

DJ Tanner: Dee Gordon in Ottoneu league, I have at $4. Not that I’m hopeful he turns it around, but thats a keep right?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think you’re ruin your season by keeping Gordon, but I only considered him a $1 player BEFORE he was terrible last season.

Brad Johnson: I’m assuming you’re talking about FGpts of course

Brad Johnson: In 5×5, he’s still a reasonably decent asset

Brad Johnson: By the way, I’m expecting maybe 10 or 15 of you to show up so feel free to give some back and forth, reactions to my comments, etc.

Reardon: HOF voting seems like appropriate Election-adjacent topic, but this is fantasy chat, so….Who would be in your personal fantasy hall of fame?

Brad Johnson: ARod and Pujols immediately come to mind

Brad Johnson: Trout would be if not active. Kershaw too.

Brad Johnson: Guys who consistently go in the early first round and return that value for at least half a decade if not more

Brad Johnson: Maybe some sneaky five category guys like Bobby Abreu?

Brad Johnson: Who am I missing

DJ Tanner: You are correct, FG points. Being new to Ottoneu, what cats get valued more in FG points than 5×5 leagues? Am I looking more for power HR/RBI guys? Are the SB guys with low totals elsewhere bad options?

Brad Johnson: Those SB guys are garbage. A quick gauge of value is Pts/G which is available on a few of the pages.

Brad Johnson: It can incorrectly show low totals for guys who only play partial games or get used as pinch hitters

Brad Johnson: Really Pts/PA is what matter, but that’s not displayed within ottoneu

Brad Johnson: And that’s assuming you’re accurately selecting for when part time players start

Brad Johnson: If you leave a guy in your outfield and he has one plate appearance, that’s a bad play (though they sometimes have good outcomes)

J.D. Martin: I’ve been seeing Acuna go 1st overall in a couple new dynasty 5×5 leagues, and honestly considering his and Trout’s respective ages it doesn’t seem all that crazy despite Trout’s consistent greatness.  Any general thoughts on this?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think it’s wrong. I would take Trout personally, as I just can’t bring myself to care about planning for the 2030 season.

Brad Johnson: But Acuna, Trout, or maybe Betts are all reasonable first picks

brad: what do you think the Yankees are most likely to do? I assume CC will be back.  Then is it trade for Kluber?  sign Corbin?  Go after Kukuchi?  Machado fills a better short term need, but seems like worse attitude and is another righty, vs harper lefty bat and seems more marketable?  They didn’t reset the luxury tax to NOT sign one of the two.  Trade Andujar seems counterproductive, unless you sign machado?  But they could sign machado and non-tender Didi?  So many ways this can play out.

Brad Johnson: I don’t believe for a second the Indians will trade Kluber

Brad Johnson: But yea, I think they try to sign one of the big two free agents. They’ll use their name brand for the sales pitch rather than making the highest offer.

Brad Johnson: They don’t mind being involved and falling short on these contracts

Brad Johnson: Then they’ll patch up their rotation.

Brad Johnson: They have obscene volume in the lower minors so I expect their biggest moves to be made in the trade market. Assuming they fall short of the two free agents.

Brad Johnson: Strategically, there are almost unlimited options for them

A Random Dude: Gotta go Trout over Acuna no matter what, right? Acuna hasn’t even played a full season yet.

Brad Johnson: Trout is seven years older than Acuna though

Brad Johnson: So if we’re talking deep dynasties, one is a building block for 3 to 5 years and the other is a slightly less good block for upwards of 13 years

Brad Johnson: Of course, a lot can happen in reality, but that’s the planning phase of it

adam: Open-ended question:  I kept a good number of expensive pieces that, at the start of 2018, had question marks.  Said players (Matt Carpenter for example), ended up having great, if not career years.  Going into 2019, I’m worried I’ll be carrying a lot of regression.  How do you handle that type of situation?

Brad Johnson: If your league allows offseason trading, then that’s the best way to correct for it

Brad Johnson: If not, you have to make some tough decisions.

Brad Johnson: I’ve been in situations where I’ve kept those guys, cut ’em, or a mix of the two

Brad Johnson: There’s too many variables for me to be of more help

Guest: I am taking over a Strat-O-Matic baseball team in a league that lets us choose a MLB minor league system. Any players that come out of that minor league system to the majors will be added to my team with no cost. The team I am taking over has the Blue Jays as theirs. I have no reason to switch right?

Brad Johnson: Correct.

Brad Johnson: The star power on the precipice of the majors is too good

Brad Johnson: If you can change in a year or two, that would probably be wise.

here goes nothing: i have puig for 17, odubel for 12, gallo for 15, and ozuna for 10. i think i have to move on from one of them. is doobie or puig out?

here goes nothing: this is fgpts 12 team league

Brad Johnson: None of those are especially valuable from a surplus perspective. But they’re good players

Brad Johnson: Doobie may be a cut. And you can probably trade Puig for something solid in the $2-$5 bucket

Brad Johnson: I’m tempted to give Ozuna a chance to rebound since injuries seemed to play a large role in his 2018 struggles

Brad Johnson: And Gallo is fun

Terence: Is Vlad Jr. a second-round talent in a redraft league?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think so

Brad Johnson: What are you hoping for as the upside? Called up in mid-April and a top 20 bat?

Brad Johnson: assuming this is a 12 team league, even the best scenario is barely worth a 2nd round pick

Brad Johnson: then there’s a chance he’s delayed in the minors due to injury or shenanigans

Brad Johnson: Or he could be merely good rather than instant Miguel Cabrera

Bravos: Would it make sense for the Braves to pursue Andrew McCutchen on something like a 3 year deal? Could fill the gap in RF and provide decent OBP/power numbers/average defense.

Brad Johnson: Yes, it would definitely make sense

Brad Johnson: McCutchen is a perfect fit for a lot of clubs though

eliotis: Ottoneu fgpts : Keep 49$ Scherzer and 53$ sale? I also own Nola Verlander and Morton for cheap and I kind of like the idea of going out with an all time rotation, blowing up the rest of my team and going stars and scrubs for hitters.

Brad Johnson: When the ace strat works, it’s very hard to lose

Brad Johnson: It’s a high risk strategy though

SparkyMcguffy: How do you feel about Mondesi next year?

Oddball Herrera: Why do I feel like I’m going to get Buxtoned when I use a keeper spot on Mondesi…

Brad Johnson: Buxton is definitely the downside to keep in mind.

Brad Johnson: Picking Mondesi needs to be in a spot where you can afford a bust

Brad Johnson: Yet the upside is enticing enough that it’ll probably be earlier than Buxton went last season

Trent: Where does Peraza rank among shortstops for 2019?

Brad Johnson: I don’t really use rankings anymore, I just draft the stats I need. I jumped on the Peraza bandwagon midseason and really benefited. I think he’ll be a cheaper, more reliable source of the production you want from Raul Mondesi

Brad Johnson: Granted few HR and SB

Brad Johnson: So cheaper for a reason, but you can almost bank those stats unlike with Mondesi who could completely vanish

Brad Johnson: There’s a small chance for Peraza to suddenly start making more authoritative contact. Then he’s a monster too.

BillyB: Which player, if traded to the Astros, gets the biggest fantasy bump?  Kluber, Grienke, Realmuto, or W. Myers?

Brad Johnson: Grienke

Brad Johnson: I don’t think going to the Astros really affects any of the others. Realmuto would bat what? 5th or 6th?

Brad Johnson: Same for Myers.

Brad Johnson: And Kluber already gets a bunch of wins and has a relatively friendly home part

Brad Johnson: Greinke’s supporting cast is iffier

brad: dynasty league Bauer and Rodgers for Scherzer?  Which side do you like?

Brad Johnson: Depends on the depth of the league. The deeper for the format, the more valuable the prospect.

Brad Johnson: This is quite fair in 12 team dynasty

Brad Johnson: I like the Bauer side in 20 team

Brett: With stolen bases down across the league, I believe Trea Turner to be a steal after a somewhat down year in round 1.  To get that amount of steals at a MI position allows for a lot of flexibility next year.  Plus Turner contributes in the other 4 categories.

Brad Johnson: In Justin Mason’s 30 team dynasty draft, he got Turner 12th overall. I thought he was easily the 5th or 6th best in the pool.

Brad Johnson: I suspect I’m going to have a lot of “bargain” shares of Turner this year

Brad Johnson: after being pretty much all out on his 3rd overall valuation last year (I did take him in TGFBI)

Bill: Is there a middle of the road prediction for Mondesi? Or is he a spectacular failure or a spectacular success? So much boom and bust there.

Brad Johnson: His distribution of outcomes is probably flatter than most players, but yea, there’s plenty of middle ground where he hits 17 HR, steals 31 bases, and has a .275 OBP

Brad Johnson: While batting top 4 in a bad lineup

Brad Johnson: That’s pretty solid production in an ugly sort of way

Andrew: OBP dynasty – Would you rather have Freeman or Vlad?

Brad Johnson: Vlad

Ryan: Is there any fantasy value in the Giants’ current outfield?  And do you think they’ll address the OF with Pollock, Brantley, or another free agent?

Brad Johnson: My impression is that they don’t plan to tank, rebuild, or otherwise take time off from contending

Brad Johnson: even though the current roster has largely failed

Brad Johnson: they reset their tax penalties. Now they’ll try to make some splashes

Daniel Castro Fan Club: Hello old friend. ?

Brad Johnson: Oh no…

Brad Johnson: He got his chance dammit. He posted a -5 wRC+ in 47 plate appearances

Reardon: Mariners potential selloff seems like the White Sox a few years ago – does Paxton get a Sale-type return?

Brad Johnson: Not that big. I had some thoughts on the subject earlier today. I’ll link to it rather than recreating them

Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/posts/22552701

In Game Ads: Is Strasburg only good for 150ip a season going forward? Not getting any younger or healthier from here.

Brad Johnson: Basically. I’d project about 160.

Brad Johnson: With the knowledge that you could get more or less

Brad Johnson: I also project Max Scherzer for 185 innings so I tend to be pretty conservative

Brad Johnson: Nobody ever bakes in injury risk to consistently durable players even though all evidence says they’re just as injury prone as normal players.

erghammer: Assume the Red Sox let Kimbrel walk (after offering the QO). Who becomes the closer? Do you think they give the keys to Joe Kelly (assuming they can even bring him back)? If not, who do they target for the 9th inning?

Brad Johnson: A free agent? Edwin Diaz?

Brad Johnson: I love Zach Britton, and everybody seems to think he’s going to get only 3/$30MM or so

Brad Johnson: If that’s true, he’s going to get that offer from 22 teams

Jeff: A couple CF ended the year strong – who do you like the best out of Laureano, Dahl, Bader?

Brad Johnson: For fantasy purposes Laureano

Brad Johnson: I’m a sucker for power and speed combos

Brad Johnson: Although I’m a bigger sucker for elite plate discipline and high contact rates

cubbies: Are you spending a second round pick on Javy Baez or is the risk too high? Also, is Kris Bryant a potential steal this year if he’s healthy or has the ADP not fallen far enough

Brad Johnson: I’ve seen Bryant go shockingly early in a few drafts

Brad Johnson: So I’m not sure it’s fallen enough for a no-speed guy with some weird recent results

Brad Johnson: I like the concept of buying low, I’m just not sure we’ll get the opportunity

Brad Johnson: As for Baez, I think others are going to call his name before me

Brad Johnson: I like him well enough, but I worry about guys with huge whiff issues falling into deep slumps. See Rougned Odor

Walk the Line: Solve for X – Walker Buehler is a top X pitcher in keep forever leagues

Brad Johnson: 6?

Brad Johnson: Lemme pull up some lists

Brad Johnson: There’s a case to be made that he’s top 1

Brad Johnson: We have two competing profiles which are difficult to grade side-by-side

Brad Johnson: older aces like deGrom, Scherzer, Verlander, and Kluber

Brad Johnson: They’re better now, but they probably won’t last as long as Buehler

Brad Johnson: Then there are the younger guys like Nola, Cole, and Snell

Brad Johnson: They… might not be better than Buehler. I’ll call ’em same asset class. And they’re still older than Buehler too

Brad Johnson: Then there are some tweeners

Brad Johnson: Sevvy, Marquez, Taillon, and Bauer are in the conversation somewhere too

Brad Johnson: Might be missing a Kershaw or Corbin, but that about rounds it out

twinmh: BONDS for fantasy HOF.

Brad Johnson: yes

Brad Johnson: obviously

OddBall Herrera: I’d actually nominate Braun for fantasy HOF, just on the strength of his rookie season.  Ridiculous to get those numbers out of a callup – that guy single handedly ruined expectations for rookies for years to come

Brad Johnson: I’ll allow it

Brad Johnson: except that he’s active

Brad Johnson: I assumed active players weren’t really eligible

twinmh: Mondesi = Tim Anderson, but 8 rounds earlier.

Brad Johnson: It’s a pretty tight comp

Brad Johnson: I compare him to pre-breakout Javy Baez

Brad Johnson: it’s probably fair to put him on an Anderson to Baez spectrum

Henry: Do I keep Yelich at $43/260 instead of Franmil Reyes $3/260 or Ross Stripling $3/260?

Brad Johnson: It’s going to depend on opportunity costs

Brad Johnson: He’s obviously much better than those guys. But is he $40 better? Maybe. Could you get more with $40 in draft and Reyes/Strip on your roster. Also maybe.

Brad Johnson: Sorry I can’t be more helpful, that’s one of those “too many inputs” for me to give a nice tidy answer

OddBall Herrera: In my defense, Braun is only nominally active these days.  I think he just strained an oblique merely contemplating baseball activities

Jeff: Does Garrett Hampson get enough playing time to hit his Steamer projection of 25 steals?

Brad Johnson: If the Rockies don’t sign a second baseman, yes!

Brad Johnson: I think it may be DJLM or bust for them too.

Brad Johnson: Then again, the Rockies consistently confuse the shit out of me

Tony Kemp is religion: Rian Watt wrote a very positive piece on Miguel Andujar today. Can we get the first ever fangraphs presidential-style (but friendlier) debate–Rian vs Brad on Andujar? Even though it’d probably only last two min…on a slightly more serious note, do you think fantasy debates would be entertaining for readership? I’d be excited to read/watch them!

Brad Johnson: I advertised the post a fair bit on twitter. It was well written.

Brad Johnson: The language was very positive, but he also said Andujar might just be blah

Brad Johnson: It was a very bipartisan post 🙂

Jeff: So then Hampson is next year’s Mondesi? Book it now?

Brad Johnson: Not quite, but people could get pretty aggressive once they look at the combo of counting stats he’ll produce

Brad Johnson: while being like a 2 WAR player

Quinn: Ottoneu question: keep Arenado for $55? I also have Chapman for cheap.

Brad Johnson: That’s about par value, maybe a few bucks over

Brad Johnson: which is fine

Brad Johnson: This is another opportunity cost optimization puzzle

Brad Johnson: You should definitely keep a cheap chapman

Andrew: What is Victor Robles best/worst case scenario?

Brad Johnson: Well worst case is “barely plays”

Brad Johnson: He’s not can’t miss

Brad Johnson: There may be years of growing pains

Brad Johnson: He may also step right into regular success. Best case is probably a 20/30 season or so

Brad Johnson: Remember, best cases are rare

Henry: Given draft based inflation, Yelich likely goes for $55-60. For $40, I could get back an ace or a 2 good pitchers (think archer/cmart tier this year).

Brad Johnson: In this case, Yelich

water champs: $5 brendan rodgers + $2 luis robert + $4 steckenrider for $21 ediaz and $5 yates? (otto fgpt)

Brad Johnson: I’ve had several reactions to this one

Brad Johnson: In the span of a minute

Brad Johnson: Let’s talk about the MLBers

Brad Johnson: Steck is a cut

Brad Johnson: Yates can be cut too, he’s scary for FGpts given his long standing issues with HR

Brad Johnson: he seemed to escape them for the first half of 2018 and then they returned

Brad Johnson: and as we know, HR are lethal in FGpts

Brad Johnson: That said, you can keep him too and hope early 2018 was more indicative of the future. That’s not an incorrect decision

Brad Johnson: Diaz should be kept, but there’s almost no way a contending roster can afford a $21 reliever pre-draft

Brad Johnson: He should be on a non-contending roster and traded post-draft

Brad Johnson: The best case is probably to keep Robert and Rodgers then trade them for Diaz and Yates after the draft

Brad Johnson: That way, you gain $19 on the deal too

water champs: context: i also own vladjr, tatis, eloy, bichette, whitley, trying to cash in on some milbers for mlbers

Brad Johnson: I would do that post-draft

Billy Bathhouse: I don’t know if I’m ready to call Acuna “slightly less” of a dynasty asset compared to Trout even considering the age gap. There are countless examples of prospects who lit the world on fire their debut season and never lived up to the hype after the league adjusted

Brad Johnson: Very true, and I tend to take this sort of careful tact too.

Brad Johnson: However, if you want elite long term assets, you have to be pretty bold

OddBall Herrera: Speaking of comps, Tatis seems like the next in line for the Tim Anderson->Baez spectrum.  I buy that a lot more than the ‘future A-Rod’ talk you hear about him

Brad Johnson: It’ll be interesting to see how he adjusts to triple-A

Brad Johnson: At the very least, fantasy owners should be wary about buying his steals. He’ll probably follow the Carlos Correa path of stealing bases.

Brad Johnson: Thanks for playing every one, it’s time to wrap it up

Daniel Castro Fan Club: We all know that DJ isn’t being retained for Mashtro.

Brad Johnson: Uh huh

Bill: Rosario’s second half slump – closer to his real talent level or injury related bump in the road?

Brad Johnson: Rosario remains hugely frustrating

Brad Johnson: He did improve considerably as a hitter – from terrible to bad

Brad Johnson: He’s only entering his age 23 season. I know we expect 19-year-olds to insta-rake in the majors these days, but some guys need a lot of time

Brad Johnson: Rosario might be one of those

Brad Johnson: or he might just be an overly gifted utility guy

Jeff: Are there any lower-range SP McHugh-types out there who will emerge as great RP next year?

Brad Johnson: Probably.

Brad Johnson: I’ve not examined that bucket yet

Brad Johnson: I might start to get a sense when I do my patron dynasty league in December.

Billy Bathhouse: What’s your general prediction for Josh James in 2019?

Brad Johnson: Super volatile. Maybe stuck in a short inning or relief role

Brad Johnson: I don’t foresee the Astros opening up a role for him without an injury

Brad Johnson: Aside from the bullpen

Brad Johnson: I think Framber is ahead of him on the starting depth chart (I really like him too)

Kyle: Gallo or Moncada in a keep forever? H2H 7×7 with OPS and TB added

Brad Johnson: I’d do Gallo personally

Brad Johnson: actualized elite HR totals trump the tantalizing potential of Moncada

OddBall Herrera: Where are you on Berrios?  He ended the season as a top 30 SP in my format, but was super flakey.  Trying to  decide if he’s worth investing in as a #2 pitcher in a 12 teamer, or if I should look elsewhere at that price

Brad Johnson: I don’t know what to do with Berrios. I haven’t owned a share since his debut season for this very reason