Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 11/6/2018
by Brad Johnson
November 6, 2018
Here’s today’s chat transcript. Thanks for playing.
| 4:01 |
: Good afternoon folks. Sporer says y’all are busy voting, but maybe that’s not true. Who wants a baseball break?
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| 4:02 |
: Dee Gordon in Ottoneu league, I have at $4. Not that I’m hopeful he turns it around, but thats a keep right?
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| 4:02 |
: I don’t think you’re ruin your season by keeping Gordon, but I only considered him a $1 player BEFORE he was terrible last season.
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| 4:02 |
: I’m assuming you’re talking about FGpts of course
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| 4:03 |
: In 5×5, he’s still a reasonably decent asset
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| 4:03 |
: By the way, I’m expecting maybe 10 or 15 of you to show up so feel free to give some back and forth, reactions to my comments, etc.
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| 4:04 |
: HOF voting seems like appropriate Election-adjacent topic, but this is fantasy chat, so….Who would be in your personal fantasy hall of fame?
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| 4:04 |
: ARod and Pujols immediately come to mind
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| 4:05 |
: Trout would be if not active. Kershaw too.
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| 4:05 |
: Guys who consistently go in the early first round and return that value for at least half a decade if not more
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| 4:05 |
: Maybe some sneaky five category guys like Bobby Abreu?
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| 4:06 |
: Who am I missing
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| 4:06 |
: You are correct, FG points. Being new to Ottoneu, what cats get valued more in FG points than 5×5 leagues? Am I looking more for power HR/RBI guys? Are the SB guys with low totals elsewhere bad options?
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| 4:06 |
: Those SB guys are garbage. A quick gauge of value is Pts/G which is available on a few of the pages.
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| 4:07 |
: It can incorrectly show low totals for guys who only play partial games or get used as pinch hitters
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| 4:07 |
: Really Pts/PA is what matter, but that’s not displayed within ottoneu
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| 4:07 |
: And that’s assuming you’re accurately selecting for when part time players start
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| 4:08 |
: If you leave a guy in your outfield and he has one plate appearance, that’s a bad play (though they sometimes have good outcomes)
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| 4:08 |
: I’ve been seeing Acuna go 1st overall in a couple new dynasty 5×5 leagues, and honestly considering his and Trout’s respective ages it doesn’t seem all that crazy despite Trout’s consistent greatness. Any general thoughts on this?
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| 4:09 |
: I don’t think it’s wrong. I would take Trout personally, as I just can’t bring myself to care about planning for the 2030 season.
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| 4:09 |
: But Acuna, Trout, or maybe Betts are all reasonable first picks
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| 4:09 |
: what do you think the Yankees are most likely to do? I assume CC will be back. Then is it trade for Kluber? sign Corbin? Go after Kukuchi? Machado fills a better short term need, but seems like worse attitude and is another righty, vs harper lefty bat and seems more marketable? They didn’t reset the luxury tax to NOT sign one of the two. Trade Andujar seems counterproductive, unless you sign machado? But they could sign machado and non-tender Didi? So many ways this can play out.
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| 4:09 |
: I don’t believe for a second the Indians will trade Kluber
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| 4:10 |
: But yea, I think they try to sign one of the big two free agents. They’ll use their name brand for the sales pitch rather than making the highest offer.
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| 4:11 |
: They don’t mind being involved and falling short on these contracts
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| 4:11 |
: Then they’ll patch up their rotation.
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| 4:12 |
: They have obscene volume in the lower minors so I expect their biggest moves to be made in the trade market. Assuming they fall short of the two free agents.
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| 4:13 |
: Strategically, there are almost unlimited options for them
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| 4:13 |
: Gotta go Trout over Acuna no matter what, right? Acuna hasn’t even played a full season yet.
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| 4:13 |
: Trout is seven years older than Acuna though
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| 4:14 |
: So if we’re talking deep dynasties, one is a building block for 3 to 5 years and the other is a slightly less good block for upwards of 13 years
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| 4:14 |
: Of course, a lot can happen in reality, but that’s the planning phase of it
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| 4:15 |
: Open-ended question: I kept a good number of expensive pieces that, at the start of 2018, had question marks. Said players (Matt Carpenter for example), ended up having great, if not career years. Going into 2019, I’m worried I’ll be carrying a lot of regression. How do you handle that type of situation?
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| 4:15 |
: If your league allows offseason trading, then that’s the best way to correct for it
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| 4:15 |
: If not, you have to make some tough decisions.
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| 4:16 |
: I’ve been in situations where I’ve kept those guys, cut ’em, or a mix of the two
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| 4:16 |
: There’s too many variables for me to be of more help
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| 4:16 |
: I am taking over a Strat-O-Matic baseball team in a league that lets us choose a MLB minor league system. Any players that come out of that minor league system to the majors will be added to my team with no cost. The team I am taking over has the Blue Jays as theirs. I have no reason to switch right?
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| 4:17 |
: Correct.
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| 4:17 |
: The star power on the precipice of the majors is too good
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| 4:17 |
: If you can change in a year or two, that would probably be wise.
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| 4:18 |
: i have puig for 17, odubel for 12, gallo for 15, and ozuna for 10. i think i have to move on from one of them. is doobie or puig out?
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| 4:18 |
: this is fgpts 12 team league
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| 4:18 |
: None of those are especially valuable from a surplus perspective. But they’re good players
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| 4:19 |
: Doobie may be a cut. And you can probably trade Puig for something solid in the $2-$5 bucket
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| 4:19 |
: I’m tempted to give Ozuna a chance to rebound since injuries seemed to play a large role in his 2018 struggles
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| 4:19 |
: And Gallo is fun
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| 4:19 |
: Is Vlad Jr. a second-round talent in a redraft league?
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| 4:20 |
: I don’t think so
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| 4:20 |
: What are you hoping for as the upside? Called up in mid-April and a top 20 bat?
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| 4:20 |
: assuming this is a 12 team league, even the best scenario is barely worth a 2nd round pick
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| 4:21 |
: then there’s a chance he’s delayed in the minors due to injury or shenanigans
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| 4:21 |
: Or he could be merely good rather than instant Miguel Cabrera
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| 4:21 |
: Would it make sense for the Braves to pursue Andrew McCutchen on something like a 3 year deal? Could fill the gap in RF and provide decent OBP/power numbers/average defense.
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| 4:21 |
: Yes, it would definitely make sense
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| 4:22 |
: McCutchen is a perfect fit for a lot of clubs though
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| 4:22 |
: Ottoneu fgpts : Keep 49$ Scherzer and 53$ sale? I also own Nola Verlander and Morton for cheap and I kind of like the idea of going out with an all time rotation, blowing up the rest of my team and going stars and scrubs for hitters.
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| 4:22 |
: When the ace strat works, it’s very hard to lose
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| 4:22 |
: It’s a high risk strategy though
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| 4:23 |
: How do you feel about Mondesi next year?
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| 4:23 |
: Why do I feel like I’m going to get Buxtoned when I use a keeper spot on Mondesi…
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| 4:23 |
: Buxton is definitely the downside to keep in mind.
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| 4:24 |
: Picking Mondesi needs to be in a spot where you can afford a bust
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| 4:24 |
: Yet the upside is enticing enough that it’ll probably be earlier than Buxton went last season
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| 4:24 |
: Where does Peraza rank among shortstops for 2019?
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| 4:25 |
: I don’t really use rankings anymore, I just draft the stats I need. I jumped on the Peraza bandwagon midseason and really benefited. I think he’ll be a cheaper, more reliable source of the production you want from Raul Mondesi
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| 4:25 |
: Granted few HR and SB
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| 4:26 |
: So cheaper for a reason, but you can almost bank those stats unlike with Mondesi who could completely vanish
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| 4:26 |
: There’s a small chance for Peraza to suddenly start making more authoritative contact. Then he’s a monster too.
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| 4:26 |
: Which player, if traded to the Astros, gets the biggest fantasy bump? Kluber, Grienke, Realmuto, or W. Myers?
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| 4:26 |
: Grienke
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| 4:27 |
: I don’t think going to the Astros really affects any of the others. Realmuto would bat what? 5th or 6th?
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| 4:27 |
: Same for Myers.
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| 4:27 |
: And Kluber already gets a bunch of wins and has a relatively friendly home part
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| 4:27 |
: Greinke’s supporting cast is iffier
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| 4:28 |
: dynasty league Bauer and Rodgers for Scherzer? Which side do you like?
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| 4:28 |
: Depends on the depth of the league. The deeper for the format, the more valuable the prospect.
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| 4:28 |
: This is quite fair in 12 team dynasty
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| 4:28 |
: I like the Bauer side in 20 team
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| 4:29 |
: With stolen bases down across the league, I believe Trea Turner to be a steal after a somewhat down year in round 1. To get that amount of steals at a MI position allows for a lot of flexibility next year. Plus Turner contributes in the other 4 categories.
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| 4:29 |
: In Justin Mason’s 30 team dynasty draft, he got Turner 12th overall. I thought he was easily the 5th or 6th best in the pool.
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| 4:30 |
: I suspect I’m going to have a lot of “bargain” shares of Turner this year
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| 4:30 |
: after being pretty much all out on his 3rd overall valuation last year (I did take him in TGFBI)
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| 4:30 |
: Is there a middle of the road prediction for Mondesi? Or is he a spectacular failure or a spectacular success? So much boom and bust there.
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| 4:31 |
: His distribution of outcomes is probably flatter than most players, but yea, there’s plenty of middle ground where he hits 17 HR, steals 31 bases, and has a .275 OBP
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| 4:31 |
: While batting top 4 in a bad lineup
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| 4:31 |
: That’s pretty solid production in an ugly sort of way
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| 4:31 |
: OBP dynasty – Would you rather have Freeman or Vlad?
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| 4:31 |
: Vlad
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| 4:32 |
: Is there any fantasy value in the Giants’ current outfield? And do you think they’ll address the OF with Pollock, Brantley, or another free agent?
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| 4:32 |
: My impression is that they don’t plan to tank, rebuild, or otherwise take time off from contending
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| 4:32 |
: even though the current roster has largely failed
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| 4:32 |
: they reset their tax penalties. Now they’ll try to make some splashes
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| 4:33 |
: Hello old friend. ?
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| 4:33 |
: Oh no…
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| 4:33 |
: He got his chance dammit. He posted a -5 wRC+ in 47 plate appearances
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| 4:34 |
: Mariners potential selloff seems like the White Sox a few years ago – does Paxton get a Sale-type return?
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| 4:34 |
: Not that big. I had some thoughts on the subject earlier today. I’ll link to it rather than recreating them
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| 4:35 |
: Is Strasburg only good for 150ip a season going forward? Not getting any younger or healthier from here.
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| 4:35 |
: Basically. I’d project about 160.
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| 4:35 |
: With the knowledge that you could get more or less
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| 4:36 |
: I also project Max Scherzer for 185 innings so I tend to be pretty conservative
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| 4:36 |
: Nobody ever bakes in injury risk to consistently durable players even though all evidence says they’re just as injury prone as normal players.
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| 4:37 |
: Assume the Red Sox let Kimbrel walk (after offering the QO). Who becomes the closer? Do you think they give the keys to Joe Kelly (assuming they can even bring him back)? If not, who do they target for the 9th inning?
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| 4:37 |
: A free agent? Edwin Diaz?
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| 4:37 |
: I love Zach Britton, and everybody seems to think he’s going to get only 3/$30MM or so
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| 4:37 |
: If that’s true, he’s going to get that offer from 22 teams
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| 4:38 |
: A couple CF ended the year strong – who do you like the best out of Laureano, Dahl, Bader?
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| 4:38 |
: For fantasy purposes Laureano
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| 4:38 |
: I’m a sucker for power and speed combos
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| 4:38 |
: Although I’m a bigger sucker for elite plate discipline and high contact rates
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| 4:38 |
: Are you spending a second round pick on Javy Baez or is the risk too high? Also, is Kris Bryant a potential steal this year if he’s healthy or has the ADP not fallen far enough
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| 4:39 |
: I’ve seen Bryant go shockingly early in a few drafts
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| 4:39 |
: So I’m not sure it’s fallen enough for a no-speed guy with some weird recent results
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| 4:39 |
: I like the concept of buying low, I’m just not sure we’ll get the opportunity
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| 4:40 |
: As for Baez, I think others are going to call his name before me
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| 4:40 |
: I like him well enough, but I worry about guys with huge whiff issues falling into deep slumps. See Rougned Odor
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| 4:40 |
: Solve for X – Walker Buehler is a top X pitcher in keep forever leagues
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| 4:40 |
: 6?
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| 4:41 |
: Lemme pull up some lists
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| 4:41 |
: There’s a case to be made that he’s top 1
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| 4:41 |
: We have two competing profiles which are difficult to grade side-by-side
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| 4:42 |
: older aces like deGrom, Scherzer, Verlander, and Kluber
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| 4:42 |
: They’re better now, but they probably won’t last as long as Buehler
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| 4:42 |
: Then there are the younger guys like Nola, Cole, and Snell
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| 4:43 |
: They… might not be better than Buehler. I’ll call ’em same asset class. And they’re still older than Buehler too
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| 4:43 |
: Then there are some tweeners
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| 4:43 |
: Sevvy, Marquez, Taillon, and Bauer are in the conversation somewhere too
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| 4:44 |
: Might be missing a Kershaw or Corbin, but that about rounds it out
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| 4:44 |
: BONDS for fantasy HOF.
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| 4:44 |
: yes
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| 4:44 |
: obviously
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| 4:46 |
: I’d actually nominate Braun for fantasy HOF, just on the strength of his rookie season. Ridiculous to get those numbers out of a callup – that guy single handedly ruined expectations for rookies for years to come
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| 4:46 |
: I’ll allow it
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| 4:46 |
: except that he’s active
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| 4:46 |
: I assumed active players weren’t really eligible
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| 4:46 |
: Mondesi = Tim Anderson, but 8 rounds earlier.
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| 4:46 |
: It’s a pretty tight comp
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| 4:47 |
: I compare him to pre-breakout Javy Baez
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| 4:47 |
: it’s probably fair to put him on an Anderson to Baez spectrum
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| 4:47 |
: Do I keep Yelich at $43/260 instead of Franmil Reyes $3/260 or Ross Stripling $3/260?
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| 4:47 |
: It’s going to depend on opportunity costs
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| 4:48 |
: He’s obviously much better than those guys. But is he $40 better? Maybe. Could you get more with $40 in draft and Reyes/Strip on your roster. Also maybe.
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| 4:49 |
: Sorry I can’t be more helpful, that’s one of those “too many inputs” for me to give a nice tidy answer
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| 4:49 |
: In my defense, Braun is only nominally active these days. I think he just strained an oblique merely contemplating baseball activities
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| 4:49 |
: Does Garrett Hampson get enough playing time to hit his Steamer projection of 25 steals?
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| 4:49 |
: If the Rockies don’t sign a second baseman, yes!
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| 4:50 |
: I think it may be DJLM or bust for them too.
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| 4:50 |
: Then again, the Rockies consistently confuse the shit out of me
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| 4:50 |
: Rian Watt wrote a very positive piece on Miguel Andujar today. Can we get the first ever fangraphs presidential-style (but friendlier) debate–Rian vs Brad on Andujar? Even though it’d probably only last two min…on a slightly more serious note, do you think fantasy debates would be entertaining for readership? I’d be excited to read/watch them!
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| 4:50 |
: I advertised the post a fair bit on twitter. It was well written.
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| 4:51 |
: The language was very positive, but he also said Andujar might just be blah
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| 4:51 |
: It was a very bipartisan post 🙂
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| 4:51 |
: So then Hampson is next year’s Mondesi? Book it now?
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| 4:51 |
: Not quite, but people could get pretty aggressive once they look at the combo of counting stats he’ll produce
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| 4:52 |
: while being like a 2 WAR player
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| 4:52 |
: Ottoneu question: keep Arenado for $55? I also have Chapman for cheap.
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| 4:52 |
: That’s about par value, maybe a few bucks over
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| 4:52 |
: which is fine
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| 4:53 |
: This is another opportunity cost optimization puzzle
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| 4:53 |
: You should definitely keep a cheap chapman
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| 4:53 |
: What is Victor Robles best/worst case scenario?
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| 4:53 |
: Well worst case is “barely plays”
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| 4:54 |
: He’s not can’t miss
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| 4:54 |
: There may be years of growing pains
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| 4:54 |
: He may also step right into regular success. Best case is probably a 20/30 season or so
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| 4:55 |
: Remember, best cases are rare
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| 4:55 |
: Given draft based inflation, Yelich likely goes for $55-60. For $40, I could get back an ace or a 2 good pitchers (think archer/cmart tier this year).
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| 4:55 |
: In this case, Yelich
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| 4:55 |
: $5 brendan rodgers + $2 luis robert + $4 steckenrider for $21 ediaz and $5 yates? (otto fgpt)
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| 4:56 |
: I’ve had several reactions to this one
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| 4:56 |
: In the span of a minute
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| 4:56 |
: Let’s talk about the MLBers
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| 4:57 |
: Steck is a cut
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| 4:57 |
: Yates can be cut too, he’s scary for FGpts given his long standing issues with HR
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| 4:57 |
: he seemed to escape them for the first half of 2018 and then they returned
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| 4:57 |
: and as we know, HR are lethal in FGpts
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| 4:58 |
: That said, you can keep him too and hope early 2018 was more indicative of the future. That’s not an incorrect decision
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| 4:58 |
: Diaz should be kept, but there’s almost no way a contending roster can afford a $21 reliever pre-draft
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| 4:58 |
: He should be on a non-contending roster and traded post-draft
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| 4:59 |
: The best case is probably to keep Robert and Rodgers then trade them for Diaz and Yates after the draft
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| 5:00 |
: That way, you gain $19 on the deal too
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| 5:00 |
: context: i also own vladjr, tatis, eloy, bichette, whitley, trying to cash in on some milbers for mlbers
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| 5:00 |
: I would do that post-draft
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| 5:01 |
: I don’t know if I’m ready to call Acuna “slightly less” of a dynasty asset compared to Trout even considering the age gap. There are countless examples of prospects who lit the world on fire their debut season and never lived up to the hype after the league adjusted
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| 5:01 |
: Very true, and I tend to take this sort of careful tact too.
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| 5:01 |
: However, if you want elite long term assets, you have to be pretty bold
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| 5:02 |
: Speaking of comps, Tatis seems like the next in line for the Tim Anderson->Baez spectrum. I buy that a lot more than the ‘future A-Rod’ talk you hear about him
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| 5:02 |
: It’ll be interesting to see how he adjusts to triple-A
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| 5:04 |
: At the very least, fantasy owners should be wary about buying his steals. He’ll probably follow the Carlos Correa path of stealing bases.
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| 5:04 |
: Thanks for playing every one, it’s time to wrap it up
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| 5:04 |
: We all know that DJ isn’t being retained for Mashtro.
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| 5:04 |
: Uh huh
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| 5:04 |
: Rosario’s second half slump – closer to his real talent level or injury related bump in the road?
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| 5:05 |
: Rosario remains hugely frustrating
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| 5:05 |
: He did improve considerably as a hitter – from terrible to bad
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| 5:06 |
: He’s only entering his age 23 season. I know we expect 19-year-olds to insta-rake in the majors these days, but some guys need a lot of time
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| 5:06 |
: Rosario might be one of those
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| 5:06 |
: or he might just be an overly gifted utility guy
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| 5:07 |
: Are there any lower-range SP McHugh-types out there who will emerge as great RP next year?
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| 5:07 |
: Probably.
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| 5:07 |
: I’ve not examined that bucket yet
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| 5:07 |
: I might start to get a sense when I do my patron dynasty league in December.
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| 5:08 |
: What’s your general prediction for Josh James in 2019?
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| 5:08 |
: Super volatile. Maybe stuck in a short inning or relief role
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| 5:08 |
: I don’t foresee the Astros opening up a role for him without an injury
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| 5:08 |
: Aside from the bullpen
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| 5:08 |
: I think Framber is ahead of him on the starting depth chart (I really like him too)
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| 5:09 |
: Gallo or Moncada in a keep forever? H2H 7×7 with OPS and TB added
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| 5:09 |
: I’d do Gallo personally
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| 5:09 |
: actualized elite HR totals trump the tantalizing potential of Moncada
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| 5:09 |
: Where are you on Berrios? He ended the season as a top 30 SP in my format, but was super flakey. Trying to decide if he’s worth investing in as a #2 pitcher in a 12 teamer, or if I should look elsewhere at that price
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| 5:10 |
: I don’t know what to do with Berrios. I haven’t owned a share since his debut season for this very reason
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