Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10/23/2018

Brad Johnson: Ahoy there. We’ll get started in a few minutes.

AJ Preller: I need a 3B (real life, not fantasy) and I’d prefer it if he was good. Who can flip me a third baseman for a catcher, or a corner outfielder, or a ton of pitching prospects?

Ebelin: All things equal and from a fantasy perspective, who’s the odd man out between Renfroe, Reyes and Cordero?

German: Is Wil Myers ever going to break out? I think I might’ve asked this for four straight years but here I am again.

Tokyo: What’s the earliest round you’d take Tatis and just stash him till he gets called up?

Brad Johnson: I am wise to your ways Padres fan!

Brad Johnson: I don’t really see third base as an urgent fix tbh.

Brad Johnson: And I would look to free agency before a trade if Villanueva/Myers/Spang are determined to be insufficient

Brad Johnson: Asdrubal, Freese, Lowrie, and Moustakas are the best fits imo

Brad Johnson: But again, I’d just stick with internal options

Brad Johnson: Reyes and Cordero will compete in Spring Training, but Reyes has to be favored with his second half performance

Brad Johnson: Let’s not forget, Jankowski was also just as solid in a very different way

Brad Johnson: Myers has been very consistent so I’m going to say he is what he is

Brad Johnson: Let’s revisit Tatis later.

Jackie: Take off your randomness hat and give us your WS prediction and why.  Thanks.

Brad Johnson: Red Sox have a better roster

Brad Johnson: Boring reason, but also the best reason

OppoTaco: All things being equal, would you keep Morton for $13 in standard 5×5?

Brad Johnson: Probably a little pricey for my taste. Depending on other factors though, he might be keepable anyway

Flip: You like sano as a big bounce back candidate this year? Seems like a good time to buy in dynasty leagues

Brad Johnson: I think the time to buy might be in April if he’s still scuffling.

Brad Johnson: I suspect he’s available at full price right now

Brad Johnson: But as soon as he’s slumping again, the price is likely to drop quickly

Brad Johnson: Honestly, his skill set has become devalued in a league where Brandon Nimmo, Max Muncy, and Tyler White all appeared for (nearly) free last season

Brad Johnson: Why pay for Sano when you can just go no-hype

Will: Nomar Mazara at $11 for this upcoming year worth it?

Brad Johnson: 12 team mixed? Probably fringe keepable.

Brad Johnson: For 5 OFers

Brad Johnson: Not 3 OFers

Brad Johnson: He’s a $1 OFer in 3 OF

Brad Johnson: There’s breakout potential there and the floor is useful

Guest: What about Margot in Padre Rubixcube? Is he at risk as non-starter?

Brad Johnson: Not really, who is going to play CF? Jankowski?

Reardon: Are there any GMs that can swing player evaluation for you? If some team went out of their way to get a player into a good playing time situation, would that bump up their stock for you? I guess I’m thinking like when OAK bought in on Rich Hill’s mini-breakout?

Brad Johnson: Yes and no, the list is very long. Generally, I assume teams are acquiring players for a specific reason, and I look to find it

Brad Johnson: Like Mike Fiers last season

Brad Johnson: Some teams (i.e. the Mets) ruin everything they touch

Guest: what is your opinion of both Quinn of Phillies and Mullins of Orioles going into 2019? Mullins looks like he will be inserted as starter as O’s rebuild. Quinn seemingly is a 4 th OF but if he could reduce strikeouts his speed is top 5. Are either one a good bet to become starters?

Brad Johnson: Quinn is the Phillies starting CFer as of right now

Brad Johnson: Nobody realizes this

Brad Johnson: As I quipped yesterday, Quinn will play 90% of the time for 15% of the games.

Brad Johnson: He’ll be on the disabled list the rest of the season

Brad Johnson: (but what if he avoids injury!)

Brad Johnson: Also, Roman Quinn is an outfielder Trea Turner

Brad Johnson: When healthy

Brad Johnson: Which is never

Brad Johnson: can’t emphasize that enough

Brad Johnson: haven’t seen somebody this injury prone since Rocco Baldelli, and he had a medical condition

Brad Johnson: Quinn rant continued: once upon a time, Michael Bourn was very injury prone. Then suddenly he was healthy for five straight years or so.

Brad Johnson: Ya never know.

Brad Johnson: As for Mullins, the fantasy profile isn’t as dynamic, but he’s a lot more likely to reach 600 PA with solid 3-5 category production

Brad Johnson: I like him in a general sense.

Brad Johnson: Not a shallow league option, but a nice patch in deep leagues

Jeff: Do you think the Ausmus and Bell hirings have any fantasy implications?

Brad Johnson: Not at this time. We know nothing about Bell so we’ll have to learn.

Brad Johnson: Ausmus will probably be less frustrating than Scioscia re: bullpens

Reardon: With SB increasingly rare, do we have to get situational about it? If Merrifield goes to a team that doesn’t run, does that render him worthless?

Reardon: Any guesses on positional scarcity for 2019? I feel like there are fewer good 1b than MI

Brad Johnson: Specifically to Merrifield, I don’t think we have to worry about a trade. Nor do I fear he’d run less for another club.

Brad Johnson: As for SB on a whole, we have to be careful about over-rostering all power, no speed types

Brad Johnson: Even if you think you’re offsetting them with a Mallex or Merrifield, it’s a fragile way to build a roster

Brad Johnson: See everybody who planned to use Billy Ham and Dee Gordon this season

Will: Do you buy a Yu Darvish bounceback?

Brad Johnson: Yes-ish

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: What sites do you use for your leagues? I’m starting a dynasty league, do you recommend any particular site?

Brad Johnson: I like CBS for deep dynasties

Brad Johnson: as long as you’re slow drafting

Brad Johnson: It’s very flexible and the drawbacks are less painful

Brad Johnson: You can even create player cards for guys who aren’t in the pool

Brad Johnson: If you’re trying to action or normal draft, the CBS draft app is a hot mess

Brad Johnson: Fantrax is comparably deep, but I’ve heard complaints about their new ad policy

Brad Johnson: ESPN is terrible, but they have the necessary tools to make a dynasty league function

Brad Johnson: If you’re in for 12 team, ottoneu is fantastic

Brad Johnson: (and auction)

Brad Johnson: Yahoo can’t dynasty

Brad Johnson: I’m missing one or two, but I haven’t tried them recently

weezy: So Fantrax or CBS? We are in an ESPN league right now, and trying to go deeper with prospects and keepers. Is CBS the way to go?

Brad Johnson: CBS is the most extensible

Brad Johnson: Fantrax is a close second

Brad Johnson: Investigate them both because they’re paid services

Jim: Ottoneu question, is Bumgarner at $35 a good deal?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: I’m not saying you automatically cut him – that’s situational

Brad Johnson: But it’s not a “good” valuation. There’s almost no chance you profit

Brad Johnson: Even vintage Bumgarner was only a $35-45 pitcher

Brad Johnson: And we’re probably not getting him back.

Brad Johnson: 2018 Bumgarner was what? $8-12 over a full season?

Brad Johnson: That’s just a guess, I haven’t looked at EoS values yet

Iggy Pop’s Raw Power: Focusing on steals more than a little is a fragile strategy because so few stealers contribute in other categories.  A home run is a 3-category event — HRs don’t just correlate with R and RBI, they are included.  Power is cheaper also.

Brad Johnson: I do like to let steals be the final piece of the puzzle unless I notice early in a draft that they’re undervalued

Reardon: Much was made about Arizona’s humidor – how did it work this year?

Brad Johnson: It was exactly as run suppressant as hypothesized

Brad Johnson: according Alan Nathan and others

Jim: In your experience, what is the best way to create Ottoneu valuations?

Brad Johnson: Mine are exceptionally custom. I don’t share them. Publicly available ones via the Slack community or FG Auction Calc are good enough.

Brad Johnson: A big reason I don’t share mine is that they’re specifically designed for my playing style. Anybody else would call them broken.

Joey: Why didn’t the Reds same some money and just tell Votto he’s also managing now?

Brad Johnson: I like it! I can’t wait for team to have six or eight two-way players and player managers

DynastyStarter: You have a specific way to value players for a start up dynasty where guys can be kept with no penalty, but are drafted via auction? Seems like that format would really skew standard auction dollar values…

Brad Johnson: That’ll depend on league depth and keeper totals

Brad Johnson: But yes, the general strategy would be to go in VERY aggressive and plan to be extremely stars and scrubs

Brad Johnson: then win the waiver wire to patch up your scrubby late picks

Brad Johnson: Muncy et al

Flip: You’ve written before about your experience playing in dynastyish leagues. Do you ever find these leagues, over time, increasingly challenging to make trades in? I’m assuming it’s because, over time, owners naturally acquire players they value more than everyone else in the league, and don’t revisit/change their evaluation as often as they should (i’m certainly guilty of this). Do you think this is more a bug or a feature of  dynasty leagues?

Brad Johnson: I find it’s MUCH easier to trade in dynasty leagues than all other formats

Brad Johnson: I also find that I ruin some trade relationships because I’m very adversarial and not everybody takes that well

Brad Johnson: That’s when I tell my co-manager to take over trading for a year

Brad Johnson: You should have a co-manager in deep dynasties

Chris B: Need a SS for 2019, and available players in my 14team OBP 5×5 are Escobar, Semien and Taylor for similar trade costs.  Which one is the one to trade for?

Brad Johnson: Yunel Escobar

Brad Johnson: I mean!

Brad Johnson: Alcides

Brad Johnson: I’d actually go Semien. He’s the only one I’m sure will play consistently.

Brad Johnson: Barring injury

Brad Johnson: If the DBacks don’t rebuild, I assume Escobar is a frequently used back up. Taylor’s also in for utility work again. And he declined enough this year that not starting on a team like the Dodgers adds up.

Brad Johnson: Here’s me on the DBacks re-signing Escobar: https://www.patreon.com/posts/22231329

Mikey: I am in my first Ottoneu offseason, any tips? How much money should I plan on bringing to the auction?

Brad Johnson: That is HIGHLY dependent on the cut of your roster

Brad Johnson: I recommend joining ottoneu Slack or my Baseball A Team Discord

Brad Johnson: Both are great places to discuss this stuff in detail with people who know what they’re doing

Billy Bathhouse: Fantrax really screwed up by dumping another fee for no ads on top of their premium league service

Brad Johnson: Yea, everyone is pissed

Brad Johnson: It’s also a really worrying sign

Brad Johnson: I was going to use them for my patron dynasty league in December

Brad Johnson: I think I’m going CBS now

Brad Johnson: I’m worried they’re not making enough revenue and will shut down

Alex: Where is the best place to find startup dynasty leagues?

Brad Johnson: My Patreon!

Brad Johnson: In all seriousness, I don’t know

Brad Johnson: I didn’t even get an invite to the Rotowire league last year, and that’s the only industry start up I’ve heard about

Brad Johnson: If anybody has a good resource for dynasty start ups, let me know

Brad Johnson: (and I am starting a 20 teamer for my patrons sometime in December)

Reardon: How did your all aces H2H league go this year?

Brad Johnson: Uh, not great

Brad Johnson: Seventh place regular season, 1st place playoffs

Brad Johnson: Kershaw, Sale, Kluber, Morton, and Carrasco massively underperformed

Brad Johnson: And frankly, I didn’t put much effort into roster management until a couple weeks before the playoffs – which shows in that result

Iggy Pop’s Raw Power: Now that I’m playing fantasy football (throw some dice once per week!), I just want to express how much I miss the infinitely superior fake sport of pretend baseball.

Brad Johnson: I tried to find a fantasy sarcastaball league this year, but none of the platforms offered it

Seller’s Remorse: Complex salary structure – some contracts escalate and some don’t.  Traded my expensive Kluber/Goldy contracts that escalate for a non-escalating Altuve, very cheap Brad Hand, Nelson Cruz and a 1st round ML pick.  Salary is even this year (about $30 from a $150 total budget), but I save about $16 in 2019 and $22 in 2020.  Won last year and a way-too-early favorite for next year before this trade.  Did I eff up?

Brad Johnson: Seems like savvy budget management to me

Brad Johnson: I’m loving Altuve as a buy low

Brad Johnson: in dynasty

Brad Johnson: It’s too bad I already own him in my deepest (and that I traded $#^@ Betts to get him)

wooo: H2H points league, coming off my first championship, and get to keep 5. Who you got: Acuna(obvz), J.Ramirez (lol), Nola, Kluber, Blackmon, Hoskins, T.Turner.

Brad Johnson: Turner is also obvious

Brad Johnson: I’d round out with Blackmon and choose your own adventure

Brad Johnson: I’m partial to hitters personally, but I could see wanting to lock in a pitcher too

Guest: What Cub is Theo trading first and for what position?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say Addison Russell, and he gets a bland SP with a decent contract or with 3ish years club control.

Reardon: What does the Escobar signing mean for AZ? Are they making another run? Do you see them trading Greinke/Goldschmidt? Jake Lamb?

Brad Johnson: Answered: https://www.patreon.com/posts/22231329

Wildtsunami: Tyler O’Neil going to get playing time next year…

Brad Johnson: Good question. I don’t think he’ll have an unimpeded path to playing time

Brad Johnson: He’ll have to shoulder his way in or wait for injuries

Will: How much is too much for Mike Trout in Ottoneu fgpts this year?

Brad Johnson: $110

Brad Johnson: Functionally, it’s very hard to win a league with a player costing over $80

Brad Johnson: $60 is the sweet spot

Bob Villar: does CBS actually allow you to bench your pitchers who arent starting that day or do they still require a “full lineup”?

Brad Johnson: Still require a full lineup, but it can be anybody eligible for that position

Brad Johnson: so a Double-A SP would count

Brad Johnson: if you wanted to ensure no PT

Brad Johnson: or just a pitcher who isn’t starting

Reardon: Are there peripherals you like for judging pitchers in small samples? In a league with a heavy reliance on good number relievers, no saves or holds to muddy the waters.

Brad Johnson: Velocity, pitch mix, eye balls

Brad Johnson: If we’re talking judging like 3 innings to make a decision

Wildtsunami: Thanks…

Brad Johnson: So… I’ve answered all the questions

Reardon: Kershaw next year?

Brad Johnson: I avoid rankings and ADP this time of year

Brad Johnson: But from what I’ve seen out of the corner of my eye, he’s priced appropriately

Brad Johnson: He’s no longer the Trout of pitchers, but he’s still quite good

Jackie: name three fantasy baseball writers whose work you like the most?

Brad Johnson: Oof, I almost didn’t click this one. Now I’m on the spot

Brad Johnson: Sporer, Jeff Z, and… uh

Brad Johnson: I would say Eno first but he isn’t fantasy baseballing all that much

Brad Johnson: I’ll say George Bissell. I find myself engaging his stuff frequently even when I have a completely different take. And we often see things similarly.

Brad Johnson: Unsurprisingly, I like FanGraphs writers in general. Few sites use information as well as we do. Bissell was with BPro and now is my colleague at Rotoworld.

Reardon: I know keeper questions can wait, but philosophically do you keep guys like Ryu, Happ, etc. at slightly below market rates?

Brad Johnson: Situationally, sure

Brad Johnson: It’s all a matter of opportunity cost

Galileo: Any opinions on Dereck Rodriguez?  I feel like he was helped a lot by AT&T this year but that shouldn’t be going away anytime soon

Brad Johnson: I’m mostly pessimistic

Brad Johnson: I doubt I’ll have any shares for over $1

Brad Johnson: He’s fine as a dice roll

Billy Bathhouse: Luis Castillo or Pivetta in ’19

Brad Johnson: Gimme Castillo, though I like ’em both as glob pitchers

Brad Johnson: and Pivetta could be 10 rounds cheaper in 12 team mixed

Brad Johnson: or $10 cheaper

Baseball fan: Justin Turner is better than Mike Trout. Agree? Trout routinely misses the playoffs and Turner has made back to back World Series. Trout is great at getting useless and hit and drawing useless walks.

Brad Johnson: -100

Ben: How long can Verlander keep this up? I’m talking about ace numbers… I own him very cheap in Dynasty through 2021 and am contending/favorite, but I have enough pitching to sell toward the end of the high

Brad Johnson: Anybody who tells you they can predict anything about pitcher aging besides “they implode frequently and suddenly” is a charlatan.

Brad Johnson: In other words, I wouldn’t be surprised if Verlander was terrible next year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a stud through 2021. And I have no way of narrowing down the outcomes.

Brad Johnson: Jeff can probably supply a better, more factual answer

brad: fantrax is not a paid service, it is free.

Brad Johnson: Depends how you’re using it and if you can tolerate ads

Brad Johnson: They have premium features which are usually needed for any kind of dynasty

Brad Johnson: And the ads…

Jackie: I like George too.  Jeff is great.  Eno is the best, well next to you of course.

Brad Johnson: Flatterer!

Billy Bathhouse: what’s Danny Jansen’s ceiling and most likely outcome for next year?

Brad Johnson: Ceiling is probably vintage Russell Martin-ish

Brad Johnson: minus the high BABIP

Brad Johnson: Wait, I’m only thinking of one Martin season it turns out

Brad Johnson: ignore the BABIP comment

Brad Johnson: Most likely outcome is .250/.350/.430, 16 HR, 500 PA

Brad Johnson: Thereabouts

TheLastWord: Would you keep either Camargo or Voit for $3 in Ottoneu as part of a loaded roster?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: Especially Voit

Ben: What fantasy role does Barraclaugh have in Washington next year? Closing, setup, and will he pitch enough to be startable on a fantasy contender?

Brad Johnson: Setup

TheLastWord: Which middle reliever do you like better for 2019: Pressley or Chad Green?

Brad Johnson: Pressly

Ben: Andrew heaney keep going up from here in terms of fantasy value? Solid but inconsistent in his return from TJ

Brad Johnson: Not sure I’d predict improvement

Brad Johnson: Maybe 2018 +/- 15%?

Reardon: Does that projection put Jansen in the top 5 at C?

Brad Johnson: Fringe

Brad Johnson: If you’re chasing floor, you can get similar from Cervelli or Suzuki at a much lower cost

brad: we have been using Fantrax free service for last 2 years 2019 will be 3 years and no issues with dynasty, and they actually have more listed players than CBS has.  ie kikuchi is already there.

Ben: Speaking of player aging, in looking at players like Starling Marte and Whit Merrifield (I get Whit may be the exception here), where is the age we expect players like this to lose value through losing SB’s? 31 or so? Sorry if that’s also unpredictable

Brad Johnson: It’s much easier to predict than pitchers

Brad Johnson: In short, yes 30-32 for most players. The exception seems to be non-starters.

Brad Johnson: Part time speedsters seem to last a LOT longer. Think Rajai Davis and Jarrod Dyson.

J.D. Martin: Time to buy on Moncada?  Obviously strikeouts are holding him down but his SwStr% isn’t terrible, launch angle/exit velo are above average and he doesn’t pop up as much as you’d think, still young, nice park for power

Brad Johnson: Good luck

Brad Johnson: Yes, I would buy

Brad Johnson: I’m not finding anybody willing to sell at a reasonable rate

Brad Johnson: Even in OBP formats, he’s priced like Acuna

Brad Johnson: And I’d rather just pay for Acuna if that’s the case

Reardon: Five years ago, the top ten players were Braun, Miggy, Trout, Cano, Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, McCutchen, Fielder, Pujols, and Votto (in some order). This year, at least half of those guys were on the waiver wire at some point, and one was out of baseball.

Five years from now, how do you see this past year’s top ten shaking out?

Brad Johnson: Fun question.

Brad Johnson: So according to Player Rater: Betts, Yelich, Scherzer, Verlander, JDM, deGrom, Ramirez, Snell, Diaz, and Treinen

Brad Johnson: Oh woof

Brad Johnson: Betts and JRam will probably still be some kind of stud

Brad Johnson: Yelich potentially too

Brad Johnson: I’d bet against ALL of the pitchers

Brad Johnson: I’ll say three-quarters of one survives as a strong fantasy asset

Brad Johnson: And one more has passable value

Brad Johnson: As for JDM, I think he’s as likely as anybody to be the next David Ortiz

Brad Johnson: but that’s still a long shot bet

jimcanuck: you see Marquez continuing his 2018 level performance?

Brad Johnson: Sure, as long as we’re including the bad stuff too

Reardon: For points-style leagues, are there any younger catchers that are going to get into the 150+ games bucket (the way that Perez, Molina, Posey were for a few years there)?

Ben: Mike Zunino startable/rosterable in a 12 team next year in a 6×6 weekly lineup league for real cheap? Catcher doesn’t seem to have much separation…

Brad Johnson: Couple catcher questions as we wrap up

Brad Johnson: I don’t think 150+ game catchers are part of the plan anymore

Brad Johnson: You get more offense out of ’em when they get some rest

Brad Johnson: even if that just means playing 1B half the time

Brad Johnson: although not many of them merit that kind of consideration

Brad Johnson: They also work better when paired with fewer pitchers

Brad Johnson: As for Zunino, he’s as good a $1 gamble as any

Billy Bathhouse: who will be an SP disappointment who had momentum this year heading into next year?

Brad Johnson: I’ll toss Blake Snell out there

Brad Johnson: He doesn’t even have to decline to disappoint

Brad Johnson: He was taken like 14th overall in the Pitcher List mock

Brad Johnson: Even if he pitches as well as he did this season, just facing the Red Sox and Yankees that many times could lead to stat regression

Brad Johnson: Luis Castillo could become the next Kevin Gausman

Brad Johnson: Alright, thanks for playing everyone

Reardon: Thanks for a great chat!