Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10/23/2018
by Brad Johnson
October 23, 2018
Here is today’s chat transcript:
| 3:58 |
: Ahoy there. We’ll get started in a few minutes.
|
| 4:01 |
: I need a 3B (real life, not fantasy) and I’d prefer it if he was good. Who can flip me a third baseman for a catcher, or a corner outfielder, or a ton of pitching prospects?
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| 4:01 |
: All things equal and from a fantasy perspective, who’s the odd man out between Renfroe, Reyes and Cordero?
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| 4:01 |
: Is Wil Myers ever going to break out? I think I might’ve asked this for four straight years but here I am again.
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| 4:01 |
: What’s the earliest round you’d take Tatis and just stash him till he gets called up?
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| 4:01 |
: I am wise to your ways Padres fan!
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| 4:02 |
: I don’t really see third base as an urgent fix tbh.
|
| 4:03 |
: And I would look to free agency before a trade if Villanueva/Myers/Spang are determined to be insufficient
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| 4:04 |
: Asdrubal, Freese, Lowrie, and Moustakas are the best fits imo
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| 4:04 |
: But again, I’d just stick with internal options
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| 4:05 |
: Reyes and Cordero will compete in Spring Training, but Reyes has to be favored with his second half performance
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| 4:05 |
: Let’s not forget, Jankowski was also just as solid in a very different way
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| 4:05 |
: Myers has been very consistent so I’m going to say he is what he is
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| 4:05 |
: Let’s revisit Tatis later.
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| 4:05 |
: Take off your randomness hat and give us your WS prediction and why. Thanks.
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| 4:06 |
: Red Sox have a better roster
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| 4:06 |
: Boring reason, but also the best reason
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| 4:06 |
: All things being equal, would you keep Morton for $13 in standard 5×5?
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| 4:06 |
: Probably a little pricey for my taste. Depending on other factors though, he might be keepable anyway
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| 4:06 |
: You like sano as a big bounce back candidate this year? Seems like a good time to buy in dynasty leagues
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| 4:07 |
: I think the time to buy might be in April if he’s still scuffling.
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| 4:07 |
: I suspect he’s available at full price right now
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| 4:08 |
: But as soon as he’s slumping again, the price is likely to drop quickly
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| 4:08 |
: Honestly, his skill set has become devalued in a league where Brandon Nimmo, Max Muncy, and Tyler White all appeared for (nearly) free last season
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| 4:09 |
: Why pay for Sano when you can just go no-hype
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| 4:09 |
: Nomar Mazara at $11 for this upcoming year worth it?
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| 4:09 |
: 12 team mixed? Probably fringe keepable.
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| 4:09 |
: For 5 OFers
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| 4:09 |
: Not 3 OFers
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| 4:09 |
: He’s a $1 OFer in 3 OF
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| 4:10 |
: There’s breakout potential there and the floor is useful
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| 4:10 |
: What about Margot in Padre Rubixcube? Is he at risk as non-starter?
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| 4:10 |
: Not really, who is going to play CF? Jankowski?
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| 4:10 |
: Are there any GMs that can swing player evaluation for you? If some team went out of their way to get a player into a good playing time situation, would that bump up their stock for you? I guess I’m thinking like when OAK bought in on Rich Hill’s mini-breakout?
|
| 4:11 |
: Yes and no, the list is very long. Generally, I assume teams are acquiring players for a specific reason, and I look to find it
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| 4:11 |
: Like Mike Fiers last season
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| 4:11 |
: Some teams (i.e. the Mets) ruin everything they touch
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| 4:11 |
: what is your opinion of both Quinn of Phillies and Mullins of Orioles going into 2019? Mullins looks like he will be inserted as starter as O’s rebuild. Quinn seemingly is a 4 th OF but if he could reduce strikeouts his speed is top 5. Are either one a good bet to become starters?
|
| 4:12 |
: Quinn is the Phillies starting CFer as of right now
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| 4:12 |
: Nobody realizes this
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| 4:12 |
: As I quipped yesterday, Quinn will play 90% of the time for 15% of the games.
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| 4:12 |
: He’ll be on the disabled list the rest of the season
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| 4:12 |
: (but what if he avoids injury!)
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| 4:13 |
: Also, Roman Quinn is an outfielder Trea Turner
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| 4:13 |
: When healthy
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| 4:13 |
: Which is never
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| 4:13 |
: can’t emphasize that enough
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| 4:13 |
: haven’t seen somebody this injury prone since Rocco Baldelli, and he had a medical condition
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| 4:14 |
: Quinn rant continued: once upon a time, Michael Bourn was very injury prone. Then suddenly he was healthy for five straight years or so.
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| 4:14 |
: Ya never know.
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| 4:15 |
: As for Mullins, the fantasy profile isn’t as dynamic, but he’s a lot more likely to reach 600 PA with solid 3-5 category production
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| 4:15 |
: I like him in a general sense.
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| 4:15 |
: Not a shallow league option, but a nice patch in deep leagues
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| 4:15 |
: Do you think the Ausmus and Bell hirings have any fantasy implications?
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| 4:15 |
: Not at this time. We know nothing about Bell so we’ll have to learn.
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| 4:16 |
: Ausmus will probably be less frustrating than Scioscia re: bullpens
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| 4:16 |
: With SB increasingly rare, do we have to get situational about it? If Merrifield goes to a team that doesn’t run, does that render him worthless?
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| 4:16 |
: Any guesses on positional scarcity for 2019? I feel like there are fewer good 1b than MI
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| 4:16 |
: Specifically to Merrifield, I don’t think we have to worry about a trade. Nor do I fear he’d run less for another club.
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| 4:17 |
: As for SB on a whole, we have to be careful about over-rostering all power, no speed types
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| 4:17 |
: Even if you think you’re offsetting them with a Mallex or Merrifield, it’s a fragile way to build a roster
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| 4:18 |
: See everybody who planned to use Billy Ham and Dee Gordon this season
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| 4:18 |
: Do you buy a Yu Darvish bounceback?
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| 4:18 |
: Yes-ish
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| 4:18 |
: What sites do you use for your leagues? I’m starting a dynasty league, do you recommend any particular site?
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| 4:18 |
: I like CBS for deep dynasties
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| 4:19 |
: as long as you’re slow drafting
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| 4:19 |
: It’s very flexible and the drawbacks are less painful
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| 4:19 |
: You can even create player cards for guys who aren’t in the pool
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| 4:19 |
: If you’re trying to action or normal draft, the CBS draft app is a hot mess
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| 4:20 |
: Fantrax is comparably deep, but I’ve heard complaints about their new ad policy
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| 4:20 |
: ESPN is terrible, but they have the necessary tools to make a dynasty league function
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| 4:20 |
: If you’re in for 12 team, ottoneu is fantastic
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| 4:20 |
: (and auction)
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| 4:21 |
: Yahoo can’t dynasty
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| 4:21 |
: I’m missing one or two, but I haven’t tried them recently
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| 4:21 |
: So Fantrax or CBS? We are in an ESPN league right now, and trying to go deeper with prospects and keepers. Is CBS the way to go?
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| 4:21 |
: CBS is the most extensible
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| 4:22 |
: Fantrax is a close second
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| 4:22 |
: Investigate them both because they’re paid services
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| 4:22 |
: Ottoneu question, is Bumgarner at $35 a good deal?
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| 4:22 |
: No
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| 4:22 |
: I’m not saying you automatically cut him – that’s situational
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| 4:22 |
: But it’s not a “good” valuation. There’s almost no chance you profit
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| 4:23 |
: Even vintage Bumgarner was only a $35-45 pitcher
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| 4:23 |
: And we’re probably not getting him back.
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| 4:23 |
: 2018 Bumgarner was what? $8-12 over a full season?
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| 4:23 |
: That’s just a guess, I haven’t looked at EoS values yet
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| 4:24 |
: Focusing on steals more than a little is a fragile strategy because so few stealers contribute in other categories. A home run is a 3-category event — HRs don’t just correlate with R and RBI, they are included. Power is cheaper also.
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| 4:24 |
: I do like to let steals be the final piece of the puzzle unless I notice early in a draft that they’re undervalued
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| 4:24 |
: Much was made about Arizona’s humidor – how did it work this year?
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| 4:24 |
: It was exactly as run suppressant as hypothesized
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| 4:25 |
: according Alan Nathan and others
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| 4:25 |
: In your experience, what is the best way to create Ottoneu valuations?
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| 4:25 |
: Mine are exceptionally custom. I don’t share them. Publicly available ones via the Slack community or FG Auction Calc are good enough.
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| 4:26 |
: A big reason I don’t share mine is that they’re specifically designed for my playing style. Anybody else would call them broken.
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| 4:26 |
: Why didn’t the Reds same some money and just tell Votto he’s also managing now?
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| 4:27 |
: I like it! I can’t wait for team to have six or eight two-way players and player managers
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| 4:27 |
: You have a specific way to value players for a start up dynasty where guys can be kept with no penalty, but are drafted via auction? Seems like that format would really skew standard auction dollar values…
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| 4:27 |
: That’ll depend on league depth and keeper totals
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| 4:28 |
: But yes, the general strategy would be to go in VERY aggressive and plan to be extremely stars and scrubs
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| 4:28 |
: then win the waiver wire to patch up your scrubby late picks
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| 4:28 |
: Muncy et al
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| 4:28 |
: You’ve written before about your experience playing in dynastyish leagues. Do you ever find these leagues, over time, increasingly challenging to make trades in? I’m assuming it’s because, over time, owners naturally acquire players they value more than everyone else in the league, and don’t revisit/change their evaluation as often as they should (i’m certainly guilty of this). Do you think this is more a bug or a feature of dynasty leagues?
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| 4:29 |
: I find it’s MUCH easier to trade in dynasty leagues than all other formats
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| 4:29 |
: I also find that I ruin some trade relationships because I’m very adversarial and not everybody takes that well
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| 4:29 |
: That’s when I tell my co-manager to take over trading for a year
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| 4:29 |
: You should have a co-manager in deep dynasties
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| 4:30 |
: Need a SS for 2019, and available players in my 14team OBP 5×5 are Escobar, Semien and Taylor for similar trade costs. Which one is the one to trade for?
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| 4:30 |
: Yunel Escobar
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| 4:30 |
: I mean!
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| 4:30 |
: Alcides
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| 4:31 |
: I’d actually go Semien. He’s the only one I’m sure will play consistently.
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| 4:31 |
: Barring injury
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| 4:31 |
: If the DBacks don’t rebuild, I assume Escobar is a frequently used back up. Taylor’s also in for utility work again. And he declined enough this year that not starting on a team like the Dodgers adds up.
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| 4:32 |
: Here’s me on the DBacks re-signing Escobar: https://www.patreon.com/posts/22231329
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| 4:32 |
: I am in my first Ottoneu offseason, any tips? How much money should I plan on bringing to the auction?
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| 4:33 |
: That is HIGHLY dependent on the cut of your roster
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| 4:33 |
: I recommend joining ottoneu Slack or my Baseball A Team Discord
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| 4:33 |
: Both are great places to discuss this stuff in detail with people who know what they’re doing
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| 4:34 |
: Fantrax really screwed up by dumping another fee for no ads on top of their premium league service
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| 4:34 |
: Yea, everyone is pissed
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| 4:34 |
: It’s also a really worrying sign
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| 4:34 |
: I was going to use them for my patron dynasty league in December
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| 4:34 |
: I think I’m going CBS now
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| 4:35 |
: I’m worried they’re not making enough revenue and will shut down
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| 4:35 |
: Where is the best place to find startup dynasty leagues?
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| 4:35 |
: My Patreon!
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| 4:35 |
: In all seriousness, I don’t know
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| 4:36 |
: I didn’t even get an invite to the Rotowire league last year, and that’s the only industry start up I’ve heard about
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| 4:36 |
: If anybody has a good resource for dynasty start ups, let me know
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| 4:36 |
: (and I am starting a 20 teamer for my patrons sometime in December)
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| 4:36 |
: How did your all aces H2H league go this year?
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| 4:36 |
: Uh, not great
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| 4:36 |
: Seventh place regular season, 1st place playoffs
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| 4:37 |
: Kershaw, Sale, Kluber, Morton, and Carrasco massively underperformed
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| 4:37 |
: And frankly, I didn’t put much effort into roster management until a couple weeks before the playoffs – which shows in that result
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| 4:37 |
: Now that I’m playing fantasy football (throw some dice once per week!), I just want to express how much I miss the infinitely superior fake sport of pretend baseball.
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| 4:38 |
: I tried to find a fantasy sarcastaball league this year, but none of the platforms offered it
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| 4:38 |
: Complex salary structure – some contracts escalate and some don’t. Traded my expensive Kluber/Goldy contracts that escalate for a non-escalating Altuve, very cheap Brad Hand, Nelson Cruz and a 1st round ML pick. Salary is even this year (about $30 from a $150 total budget), but I save about $16 in 2019 and $22 in 2020. Won last year and a way-too-early favorite for next year before this trade. Did I eff up?
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| 4:39 |
: Seems like savvy budget management to me
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| 4:39 |
: I’m loving Altuve as a buy low
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| 4:39 |
: in dynasty
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| 4:39 |
: It’s too bad I already own him in my deepest (and that I traded $#^@ Betts to get him)
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| 4:40 |
: H2H points league, coming off my first championship, and get to keep 5. Who you got: Acuna(obvz), J.Ramirez (lol), Nola, Kluber, Blackmon, Hoskins, T.Turner.
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| 4:40 |
: Turner is also obvious
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| 4:40 |
: I’d round out with Blackmon and choose your own adventure
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| 4:40 |
: I’m partial to hitters personally, but I could see wanting to lock in a pitcher too
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| 4:40 |
: What Cub is Theo trading first and for what position?
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| 4:41 |
: I’ll say Addison Russell, and he gets a bland SP with a decent contract or with 3ish years club control.
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| 4:42 |
: What does the Escobar signing mean for AZ? Are they making another run? Do you see them trading Greinke/Goldschmidt? Jake Lamb?
|
| 4:42 |
: Answered: https://www.patreon.com/posts/22231329
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| 4:42 |
: Tyler O’Neil going to get playing time next year…
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| 4:42 |
: Good question. I don’t think he’ll have an unimpeded path to playing time
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| 4:42 |
: He’ll have to shoulder his way in or wait for injuries
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| 4:42 |
: How much is too much for Mike Trout in Ottoneu fgpts this year?
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| 4:42 |
: $110
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| 4:43 |
: Functionally, it’s very hard to win a league with a player costing over $80
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| 4:43 |
: $60 is the sweet spot
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| 4:43 |
: does CBS actually allow you to bench your pitchers who arent starting that day or do they still require a “full lineup”?
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| 4:43 |
: Still require a full lineup, but it can be anybody eligible for that position
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| 4:44 |
: so a Double-A SP would count
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| 4:44 |
: if you wanted to ensure no PT
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| 4:44 |
: or just a pitcher who isn’t starting
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| 4:44 |
: Are there peripherals you like for judging pitchers in small samples? In a league with a heavy reliance on good number relievers, no saves or holds to muddy the waters.
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| 4:44 |
: Velocity, pitch mix, eye balls
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| 4:45 |
: If we’re talking judging like 3 innings to make a decision
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| 4:46 |
: Thanks…
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| 4:46 |
: So… I’ve answered all the questions
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| 4:47 |
: Kershaw next year?
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| 4:47 |
: I avoid rankings and ADP this time of year
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| 4:48 |
: But from what I’ve seen out of the corner of my eye, he’s priced appropriately
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| 4:48 |
: He’s no longer the Trout of pitchers, but he’s still quite good
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| 4:49 |
: name three fantasy baseball writers whose work you like the most?
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| 4:49 |
: Oof, I almost didn’t click this one. Now I’m on the spot
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| 4:49 |
: Sporer, Jeff Z, and… uh
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| 4:49 |
: I would say Eno first but he isn’t fantasy baseballing all that much
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| 4:50 |
: I’ll say George Bissell. I find myself engaging his stuff frequently even when I have a completely different take. And we often see things similarly.
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| 4:51 |
: Unsurprisingly, I like FanGraphs writers in general. Few sites use information as well as we do. Bissell was with BPro and now is my colleague at Rotoworld.
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| 4:51 |
: I know keeper questions can wait, but philosophically do you keep guys like Ryu, Happ, etc. at slightly below market rates?
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| 4:51 |
: Situationally, sure
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| 4:51 |
: It’s all a matter of opportunity cost
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| 4:52 |
: Any opinions on Dereck Rodriguez? I feel like he was helped a lot by AT&T this year but that shouldn’t be going away anytime soon
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| 4:52 |
: I’m mostly pessimistic
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| 4:52 |
: I doubt I’ll have any shares for over $1
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| 4:52 |
: He’s fine as a dice roll
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| 4:52 |
: Luis Castillo or Pivetta in ’19
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| 4:52 |
: Gimme Castillo, though I like ’em both as glob pitchers
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| 4:52 |
: and Pivetta could be 10 rounds cheaper in 12 team mixed
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| 4:53 |
: or $10 cheaper
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| 4:53 |
: Justin Turner is better than Mike Trout. Agree? Trout routinely misses the playoffs and Turner has made back to back World Series. Trout is great at getting useless and hit and drawing useless walks.
|
| 4:53 |
: -100
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| 4:53 |
: How long can Verlander keep this up? I’m talking about ace numbers… I own him very cheap in Dynasty through 2021 and am contending/favorite, but I have enough pitching to sell toward the end of the high
|
| 4:54 |
: Anybody who tells you they can predict anything about pitcher aging besides “they implode frequently and suddenly” is a charlatan.
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| 4:55 |
: In other words, I wouldn’t be surprised if Verlander was terrible next year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a stud through 2021. And I have no way of narrowing down the outcomes.
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| 4:55 |
: Jeff can probably supply a better, more factual answer
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| 4:56 |
: fantrax is not a paid service, it is free.
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| 4:56 |
: Depends how you’re using it and if you can tolerate ads
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| 4:57 |
: They have premium features which are usually needed for any kind of dynasty
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| 4:57 |
: And the ads…
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| 4:57 |
: I like George too. Jeff is great. Eno is the best, well next to you of course.
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| 4:57 |
: Flatterer!
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| 4:58 |
: what’s Danny Jansen’s ceiling and most likely outcome for next year?
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| 4:59 |
: Ceiling is probably vintage Russell Martin-ish
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| 4:59 |
: minus the high BABIP
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| 4:59 |
: Wait, I’m only thinking of one Martin season it turns out
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| 4:59 |
: ignore the BABIP comment
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| 5:00 |
: Most likely outcome is .250/.350/.430, 16 HR, 500 PA
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| 5:00 |
: Thereabouts
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| 5:00 |
: Would you keep either Camargo or Voit for $3 in Ottoneu as part of a loaded roster?
|
| 5:01 |
: Yes
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| 5:01 |
: Especially Voit
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| 5:01 |
: What fantasy role does Barraclaugh have in Washington next year? Closing, setup, and will he pitch enough to be startable on a fantasy contender?
|
| 5:01 |
: Setup
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| 5:01 |
: Which middle reliever do you like better for 2019: Pressley or Chad Green?
|
| 5:01 |
: Pressly
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| 5:01 |
: Andrew heaney keep going up from here in terms of fantasy value? Solid but inconsistent in his return from TJ
|
| 5:01 |
: Not sure I’d predict improvement
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| 5:01 |
: Maybe 2018 +/- 15%?
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| 5:02 |
: Does that projection put Jansen in the top 5 at C?
|
| 5:02 |
: Fringe
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| 5:02 |
: If you’re chasing floor, you can get similar from Cervelli or Suzuki at a much lower cost
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| 5:03 |
: we have been using Fantrax free service for last 2 years 2019 will be 3 years and no issues with dynasty, and they actually have more listed players than CBS has. ie kikuchi is already there.
|
| 5:03 |
: Speaking of player aging, in looking at players like Starling Marte and Whit Merrifield (I get Whit may be the exception here), where is the age we expect players like this to lose value through losing SB’s? 31 or so? Sorry if that’s also unpredictable
|
| 5:03 |
: It’s much easier to predict than pitchers
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| 5:04 |
: In short, yes 30-32 for most players. The exception seems to be non-starters.
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| 5:04 |
: Part time speedsters seem to last a LOT longer. Think Rajai Davis and Jarrod Dyson.
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| 5:04 |
: Time to buy on Moncada? Obviously strikeouts are holding him down but his SwStr% isn’t terrible, launch angle/exit velo are above average and he doesn’t pop up as much as you’d think, still young, nice park for power
|
| 5:04 |
: Good luck
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| 5:05 |
: Yes, I would buy
|
| 5:05 |
: I’m not finding anybody willing to sell at a reasonable rate
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| 5:05 |
: Even in OBP formats, he’s priced like Acuna
|
| 5:05 |
: And I’d rather just pay for Acuna if that’s the case
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| 5:05 |
: Five years ago, the top ten players were Braun, Miggy, Trout, Cano, Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, McCutchen, Fielder, Pujols, and Votto (in some order). This year, at least half of those guys were on the waiver wire at some point, and one was out of baseball.
Five years from now, how do you see this past year’s top ten shaking out? |
| 5:06 |
: Fun question.
|
| 5:06 |
: So according to Player Rater: Betts, Yelich, Scherzer, Verlander, JDM, deGrom, Ramirez, Snell, Diaz, and Treinen
|
| 5:06 |
: Oh woof
|
| 5:07 |
: Betts and JRam will probably still be some kind of stud
|
| 5:07 |
: Yelich potentially too
|
| 5:07 |
: I’d bet against ALL of the pitchers
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| 5:07 |
: I’ll say three-quarters of one survives as a strong fantasy asset
|
| 5:07 |
: And one more has passable value
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| 5:08 |
: As for JDM, I think he’s as likely as anybody to be the next David Ortiz
|
| 5:08 |
: but that’s still a long shot bet
|
| 5:08 |
: you see Marquez continuing his 2018 level performance?
|
| 5:08 |
: Sure, as long as we’re including the bad stuff too
|
| 5:09 |
: For points-style leagues, are there any younger catchers that are going to get into the 150+ games bucket (the way that Perez, Molina, Posey were for a few years there)?
|
| 5:09 |
: Mike Zunino startable/rosterable in a 12 team next year in a 6×6 weekly lineup league for real cheap? Catcher doesn’t seem to have much separation…
|
| 5:09 |
: Couple catcher questions as we wrap up
|
| 5:09 |
: I don’t think 150+ game catchers are part of the plan anymore
|
| 5:09 |
: You get more offense out of ’em when they get some rest
|
| 5:10 |
: even if that just means playing 1B half the time
|
| 5:10 |
: although not many of them merit that kind of consideration
|
| 5:10 |
: They also work better when paired with fewer pitchers
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| 5:10 |
: As for Zunino, he’s as good a $1 gamble as any
|
| 5:11 |
: who will be an SP disappointment who had momentum this year heading into next year?
|
| 5:11 |
: I’ll toss Blake Snell out there
|
| 5:11 |
: He doesn’t even have to decline to disappoint
|
| 5:11 |
: He was taken like 14th overall in the Pitcher List mock
|
| 5:12 |
: Even if he pitches as well as he did this season, just facing the Red Sox and Yankees that many times could lead to stat regression
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| 5:13 |
: Luis Castillo could become the next Kevin Gausman
|
| 5:13 |
: Alright, thanks for playing everyone
|
| 5:13 |
: Thanks for a great chat!
|
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam