Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10/16/2018

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in 10 minutes or so. Try not to spam the queue. I’d like to have a little back and forth which is more easily achieved with fewer questions and more responses to those questions.

Brad Johnson: In other words, just ask one or two questions at a time.

CaptBaldy: What do you think J Aguilar does next year?  Also, have him for $1 in 12 team NL only 4×4 weekly league, should I be looking to trade him for something maybe more “stable” or keep him?

Brad Johnson: Well, I think you approach this in two ways. 1. You definitely plan to keep Aguilar for $1. 2. There’s nothing wrong with seeing if somebody else will buy high on his power.

Choose 3: T. Turner (NR),  JoRam (3), JDM (4), Benintendi (NR)

Brad Johnson: So Benintendi costs no pick?

Brad Johnson: I think we have to look beyond 2019 on this one, and that means cost inflation matters.

Brad Johnson: If Benintendi is permanently “free,” then he’s probably a better asset than JDM. But if I’m only focusing on the next couple years, I’d go Turner, JoRam, JDM.

Pat Reon: What version of Jonathan Villar is the real one?

Brad Johnson: I think we’d all like to know that

Brad Johnson: I would project a pretty wide range of outcomes for him

Brad Johnson: 450 to 650 PA, 6 to 21 HR, 20 to 45 SB, and between .235/.280/.350 to .270/.335/.415

Brad Johnson: run production should be reasonably decent batting between 1st and 3rd most of the time

Rico Suave: What two players are going to be most surprised when they are traded this off-season?

Brad Johnson: This is a fun question, but I need to think about it…

Brad Johnson: Miguel Andujar comes immediately to mind

Brad Johnson: Unless the Yankees think he can figure out defense. I’m not sanguine…

Brad Johnson: I feel like the Phillies will trade an OFer. Nick Williams seems the obvious choice.

Brad Johnson: But it could be Odubel Herrera if they think Roman Quinn won’t break

Brad Johnson: I don’t know why they’d think that though…

Brad Johnson: Stephen Strasburg?

HappyFunBall: Early trading season is upon us! I hate early trading, as the big margins are (IMHO) in guys who stand to gain or lose real playing time over what we think today. Of course so much of that is dependent on trades and FA signings. So who do you think are a few guys who are undervalued today, because you think that they’re going to find themselves much more playing time in 2019?

Brad Johnson: This is a great question, and one I’m woefully underprepared to answer

Brad Johnson: I’ll just quickly leaf through division by division

Brad Johnson: Roman Quinn, JP Crawford, Garrett Cooper/Peter O’Brien

Brad Johnson: Can’t think of anybody in the NL Central. Maybe Adam Frazier?

Brad Johnson: Garrett Hampson

Brad Johnson: I know I have to be missing a Padre though

Brad Johnson: Ok, AL… Austin Meadows, Greg Bird/Luke Voit?, some random Oriole I haven’t thought of

Brad Johnson: Bradley Zimmer, Byron Buxton finally post-hype?

Brad Johnson: Tony Kemp

hscer: Voit+ to ARI for Goldschmidt?

Brad Johnson: DBacks can’t take that

Brad Johnson: Even if they liked the valuation which they wouldn’t, it’s not salable

Tim: If Arizona embarks on a rebuild, will any of their prospects suddenly have a shot for major league playing time next year?  And will any of them be fantasy relevant?

Brad Johnson: From memory, I’m not coming up with any meaningful prospects on the cusp

Brad Johnson: I know I’ve liked Socrates Brito forever

Brad Johnson: He could get a chance with Pollock gone

Brad Johnson: I just went hunting for anybody I might be missing and didn’t find any

Wowza: In a vacuum: A moderately priced Mookie for a cheap JRam and inconsequential kicker/filler piece.  Which side you got?

Brad Johnson: I think Ramirez. I project them to be very similar in 2019.

Brad Johnson: Mookie gets a very small edge. No more than $4

hscer: don’t blame me for trying to trade Goldschmidt, blame Buster lol

Brad Johnson: lel

Brad Johnson: I feel like national reporters are getting worse at avoiding manipulation

Jordan : On the playing time question, Josh James could be a beast if he gets a spot in the Astros rotation

Brad Johnson: Yea, I intentionally ignored pitchers because, well, that shit ain’t predictable

Brad Johnson: all I can say is there will be a LOT of opportunities, but certain players may not be available to take them

A Random Dude: Kind of a long question, but hopefully one that people can chime in on.

In Ottoneu, how much is too much to spend on stud keepers? I have Betts and Judge at around $50 each, Trout at $75+, Correa at $40+, and at least 8 others (including pitchers) from $15-30. End of my first season, and I’m not sure how best to allocate my $400 towards players/draft/in-season purchases. Thanks for the awesome chats!

A Random Dude: Oh, for my question, about half of the arb $$ are in, so we’ll see how they fluctuate. Finished 2nd to last, and $18 are coming my way for now.

Brad Johnson: I routinely roster my entire starting lineup while leaving something like $17 to fill 14 spots. Spending $1 on a lot players gives you a good shot at finding cheap building blocks.

Brad Johnson: ottoneu owners, including my fellow experts, consistently undervalue the importance of elite performance. My model has Mike Trout as worth over $100. Functionally, it’s tough to pay that much for him AND field a winning roster. But it should be possible.

Brad Johnson: Nobody else’s model is that aggressive in valuing elite performance. Given my ottoneu track record, I feel pretty confident I’m correct.

Brad Johnson: Anyone else have opinions?

Fill in my blank: Luis Urias is a top _____ 2B in 2019

Brad Johnson: 20? 25?

Brad Johnson: Urias is the exactly the sort of upside play you want to make a $1 gamble on (12-team mixed)

Brad Johnson: However, if others want to pay $5 or $7 for the privilege, let ’em

Brad Johnson: He’s also the kind of player I like to nominate early to watch the bids fly

Brad Johnson: Spring training should be somewhat informative

Brad Johnson: But he was overmatched this season

JH: Muncy at $10 in a fairly shallow, 10-team, mixed league. $260 budget with 25 roster spots, keep 10.

Brad Johnson: That comes down to your other options for the last keeper spot.

Brad Johnson: Muncy is keepable at that price, but it’s not a must-keep spot in a shallow league

Slurve: Which team would you guess moves the most players from their current 25 man roster this offseason?  About how many players would/could that be?

Brad Johnson: I need to think about this a hot minute

Brad Johnson: The Rays are always a good bet…

Brad Johnson: I think the Phillies could get really creative

Brad Johnson: Maybe the Diamondbacks pump the breaks rather than taking one last shot

Brad Johnson: The White Sox are closer to contention than most realize

Brad Johnson: They could see a lot of turnover via free agent upgrades

Brad Johnson: I’m not seeing anybody who’s likely to go full Marlins so I’ll say maybe 7 or 8 new players at the most. That’s still a lot.

Brad Johnson: But half of those would be relievers

Writing on the Wall: How worried are you about Kluber next year?  Is his descent graceful or swift and terrible?

Brad Johnson: I’m not all that worried

Brad Johnson: “Bad” Corey Kluber posted a 3.67 ERA with 9.29 K/9 and 1.87 BB/9

Brad Johnson: I’m not picking him in the first round anymore, but I’d still consider him an ace of some flavor

Brad Johnson: fwiw, I was never picking him in the first round

Willie hears ya Willie dont care: What do you make of Nick Kingham, fantasy wise, next season? I like his future outlook overall but what about 2019?

Brad Johnson: Just a quick peek, I think his fastball doesn’t play in the majors at present

Brad Johnson: He needs to ditch the sinker entirely

Brad Johnson: It’s garbage

Brad Johnson: Same with the cutter

Brad Johnson: Then I think he could get away with commanding the upper edge of the zone with his 4 seamer mixed with a over 50% offspeed stuff

Brad Johnson: That would be my advice to him

Brad Johnson: The Pirates generally don’t lead pitchers in this direction.

Brad Johnson: They didn’t with Glasnow for gods know what reason

Brad Johnson: So I think we could be in for some rocky seasons

Brad Johnson: That said, I like Kingham as a growth asset in deep formats

Walt: Re: Ottoneu Keepers.

Division of $400 between keepers and draft depends heavily on the age of the league. For a league entering its first off-season, very few elite players are likely to be available. The chance of finding value in the draft is very difficult. So I’d ere on the side of keeping as many of the star players, while ditching most $3-5 players (unless they were diamonds in the rough). Obviously, there is no reason to spend $3 on a $1 player but a lot of people overpay for certainty to keep guys who were bargains last year.

I agree entirely that linear valuation models don’t work in Ottoneu because of the IP/GS caps. That is, elite performance is worth a significant premium whereas its critical to not overpay for fungible talent.

A Random Dude: Do I keep or trade away Ohtani, knowing he’s not pitching until 2020? He’s at $32 currently and I have Chapman/Vlad who could take the Util slot if I want. Pitching = risk, so I’m leaning towards moving.

Brad Johnson: I would trade him at this price

Brad Johnson: So much that can go wrong. He’s maybe a $15 hitter so you’re taking a huge loss next season just to try the experiment a second time in 2020

Erik Guy: 12 team standard keeper, have Altuve and Mondesi at 2B.
Lost league due to lack of HR and RP last year, worth trying to trade Altuve to try and go for a JDM or Judge type, or is the loss of OBP and AVG too hard to take? Are you worried about Altuve’s HR and Steals going forward?

Brad Johnson: I’ve heard from a couple secondary sources, including Eno, that Altuve has a meniscus injury.

Brad Johnson: It’s probably not very serious. But if you don’t see him get some sort of arthroscopy over the offseason, you should assume another light SB year

Brad Johnson: So yes, I would trade Altuve for a big power source under the right circumstances.

Brad Johnson: Not enough info to say definitely do it though

Brad Johnson: I’m inclined to “rehab” my Altuve shares personally

Mike: Could Jacob Nottingham be worthwhile in fantasy? Or will it even be in a couple years, as catchers seem to take more time to mature?

Brad Johnson: I see a highly flawed hitter who has trouble barreling the baseball

Brad Johnson: Not sure he’s a major leaguer at this point

Brad Johnson: He has the raw components of a slugging catcher with a friendly home park if something clicks.

BAMF: Danny Jansen.  12 teams, 2 C per team.  He a must own in this format for next year?

Brad Johnson: Yes, I think so

Brad Johnson: But farther towards the back end than you’d think

Brad Johnson: Like Luis Urias, he’s a perfect $1 or $2 flier, but if the bidding goes higher, let somebody make the bet

Brad Johnson: Chances are, you’ll get a chance at them on FAAB

A Random Dude: Harper, Altuve, Kershaw all cut pre-arb

Brad Johnson: Pre-arb cuts…

Brad Johnson: They should read the Ottoneu Arbitration Omnibus

Brad Johnson: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ottoneu-arbitration-omnibus-v/

A Random Dude: Was toying with cutting Trout (assuming I cut down heavily on $3+ guys) and resigning for possibly less than keeper cost

Brad Johnson: It’s an interesting gamble, one I usually avoid

DJ Tanner: I’ve never done an Ottoneu league, but looking for more in the fantasy community. Every time I try to read on it, seems very confusing and daunting. Convince me, your QO millionaire idea partner, to join Ottoneu.

Brad Johnson: For one, community is front and center

Brad Johnson: Although there are a lot of technical details, they actually aren’t all that complicated

Brad Johnson: That is, you can make them as complicated as you’d like

Brad Johnson: For example, when I assign arbitration dollars, I’m using trade negotiations to convince owners to allocate less to certain of my guys I secretly want to keep. I’ll signal untouchables so they draw fire. And I focus on allocating to players who will remain kept for many years. I also always max allocate to the owners I consider the best, regardless of how they performed in the most recent season or the current state of their roster

Brad Johnson: But you could just look at each team and just pick some shiny allocations in 5 minutes

Brad Johnson: One of the best parts of ottoneu is that you have things to do over the winter. To that end, I suggest joining an active league with an opening right now so you can participate in the full offseason. Start with just one league. I recommend FGpts roto format.

A Random Dude: “Pre-arb cuts…
They should read the Ottoneu Arbitration Omnibus
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ottoneu-arbitration-omnibus-v/”

I did 😉 The arb process is very different and very fun to watch. Really liking the differences of Ottoneu from my other leagues

Davoink Showerhandel: Do you allocate to pitchers at all in Ottoneu?  I almost never want to allocate to any pitcher because they can blow out any time, but sometimes a $5 Corbin or $10 Nola seems like the right call

Brad Johnson: Yea, that’s my basic approach too. Since they can blow up catastrophically, allocating a dollar to them could just mean giving the owner an extra 50 cents later in the season.

KB: Re: Ottoneu Keepers.

A big part of it is knowing your league. Do the studs still carry value when they are $50+ or owners steer clear of that lofty price tag. This should also tell you how much they may go for in the next years draft if you were to cut them.

You can always try to trade them in the off season for young talent if you don’t want or can’t afford them next year.

It comes down to your team plan. One more year to try and win it, or do a big rebuild and try and get cheap controllable assets for a longer window a few years down the road.

Brad Johnson: I’ll add that rebuilding the “traditional” way is extremely difficult in ottoneu because of the arbitration system

Brad Johnson: Say you load up on prospects and 3 break out

Brad Johnson: They get hammered by arb. Next year, 3 more break out. Hammered by arb. By the time you have a full roster, your guys are too expensive.

Brad Johnson: It’s easy to get trapped in a rebuild

Ottaneu: Your explanation to convince DJ to join an Ottoneu league scared me to death and I’m nowhere closer myself to knowing what is going on with those leagues. Please help

Brad Johnson: Whelp!

Brad Johnson: Well… I guess here’s another way to put it. If you really like a lot of quirks to a league and a year-round experience, then ottoneu is for you

Brad Johnson: It’s a high effort format.

Brad Johnson: And the quirks are very balanced

Brad Johnson: There’s nothing about the format I consider unfair or heavily advantageous to a certain type of owner

Brad Johnson: For example, a 12-team mixed league with insta-waivers highly favors the most active owners

Brad Johnson: Activity matters in ottoneu, but not for acquiring talent (except insofar as trying to make a lot of trades facilitates actually making trades)

Brad Johnson: Instead of waivers, you get 48 hour auctions using the Vickrey method of auctioning (second highest bid +$1)

SparkyMcguffy: 260 budget. 14 team league, 5 keepers. Mike Trout and inflation at 80 bucks or a little more. Keep?

Brad Johnson: I think so. Depends on your opportunity costs.

Brad Johnson: Random bad example, if you’re cutting a $5 Jose Ramirez to keep Trout, then you should cut him.

Queens: What do you with $12 Corey Seager? Hold on until you see some Spring performance or “trade low” to get something for him?

Brad Johnson: In ottoneu FGpts, he’s a must-keep at that price. If you’re talking normal roto, that’s probably about par value

Brad Johnson: See what options are out there but don’t force a trade

hscer: Sounds like it’s disadvantageous to a low-effort owner!

Brad Johnson: re:ottoneu, less so than most fantasy formats. Our home league is tougher on low effort owners.

Ghost of Ned Yost: Im in an old stubborn dynasty league and I’ve noticed a very exploitable flaw. I let the three leaders know last offseason that they might want to address this but they don’t seem particularly worried. Its an injury loop hole and if I do exploit it its going to be rather unfair down the road. I dipped my toe into it in last years auction and it seemed to go unnoticed. Should I just go for it and hope they learn the lesson? I’d hate to mess a old league up but the competitive me likes winning.

Brad Johnson: Do you think people would protest or just fix the loophole if it were exploited?

Brad Johnson: Also, if it confers a long term advantage, maybe your best approach is to use it just enough to benefit the most without breaking the system entirely.

Brad Johnson: I have to wrap things up on time today, on a tight schedule

Brad Johnson: Thanks for playing folks, before you go…

Brad Johnson: I’d like to plug a mini-ad for my Patreon. In another 35 or 40 patrons, we’ll unlock my next “Goal” which involves new monthly fantasy games with $50 in prizes. Could start as soon as November if we hit the goal, although that may be ambitious.

Brad Johnson: However, if you want Brad-created fantasy games to play over the offseason, you can help me by becoming a patron or recruiting others.

Brad Johnson: Here’s a link – https://www.patreon.com/BaseballATeam

Brad Johnson: PS – we have a Discord where you can do this with me any time of day

Brad Johnson: See ya next week folks

Seamus Catuli: I just got here so old question but Schwarber and Russell could get traded easily imo

Davoink Showerhandel: Do you target your Ottoneu allocations more heavily toward teams you think are going to be competitive next year or do you just hit the players you think are most deserving regardless of whether they are on a likely contender?

Brad Johnson: I definitely target owners. Sometimes I’ll even ignore a well-constructed roster when I know the owner makes a lot of unforced errors.

A Random Dude: So, in regards to Ottoneu for new owners: On top of it being my first year doing Otto, it was also my first time doing an auction-style league. In Otto the price you draft guys for stays throughout the whole season and you have to maintain that $400 budget for roster, in-season transactions, and player cuts (which can be reduced throughout the season). I think with most auction leagues, once the draft is over it switches to a FAAB right? So, a key difference, but nothing too difficult. Just another aspect of strategery that can be employed.

Brad Johnson: Yes, it’s a fun wrinkle. And frankly, a better system in my opinion.