Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/7/2020
by Brad Johnson
January 7, 2020
The chat is completed. Below is a transcript for your pleasure.
| 3:58 |
: We’ll get started in a few moments. We’ll probably only run for a prompt hour because I’m fighting a silly cold (it’s not that bad).
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| 4:01 |
: I think I last saw J.D. Davis just inside the top 100 for hitters, how far do you think he would shoot up the rankings if the Mets declared him an every day starter?
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| 4:03 |
: It’s ’bout that time of year when I get to explain I don’t use rankings and therefore am not a good resource for related questions.
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| 4:03 |
: That said, I have a little trouble with his projections because he’s a high ground ball rate guy. That’s a blind spot for me.
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| 4:04 |
: Please let me know your strategy for the prospects 365 best ball draft, as we are in the same league
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| 4:05 |
: I have yet to consider a strategy! I’ll whip something together on the fly. Slow drafts are good for that.
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| 4:05 |
: michael fulmer just agreed to a contract, any news on his wherewithal for 2020?
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| 4:05 |
: Honestly, there are worse stabs for dark horse innings. I’m talking like 15-team, 50-player draft and hold more so than a typical 12-team roto.
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| 4:06 |
: In a keep forever league, what hitter would you be looking for in a wander franco trade? Is betts or yelich too much?
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| 4:06 |
: Not at all. I’d ask Trout+ as a starting point then progress from there.
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| 4:06 |
: League depth matters though.
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| 4:06 |
: The deeper the league, the more valuable Franco’s youth.
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| 4:06 |
: Any love for luis urias as a bounce back play in deep dynasty leagues? Hoping his power will tick up in milwaukee
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| 4:07 |
: I dunno about power. He’s got Jose Altuve’s size without the crazy leverage in his swing.
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| 4:08 |
: But I love him as a deep dynasty play all the same. Solid core performers who have 6+ years ahead of them are valuable.
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| 4:08 |
: It’s like real world teams that pay for an innings eating starting pitcher.
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| 4:08 |
: Is gregory polanco worth keeping at any price in otto?
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| 4:08 |
: I mean, maybe $3-5 you throw a dart instead of drafting one
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| 4:08 |
: But you could cut him at those prices too.
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| 4:09 |
: Ottoneu FGPTs trade, which side you like: $51 Harper and $6 Clase -or- $27 Realmuto and $13 Eduardo Rodriguez Also, thoughts on Eduardo Rodriguez overall, think he’s ready to take a step forward? |
| 4:09 |
: I’m not especially in on ERod as a growth asset. It’s certainly part of the set of possible outcomes, but decline strikes me as *more* likely.
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| 4:10 |
: The trade is giving me a bit of a headache. I don’t have a strong opinion as I’d be trying to trade away all four of those players at those prices. They’re probably all keepable, but none of them look like huge sources of value.
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| 4:10 |
: If you’re sitting on a lot of budget, then Harper’s worth nabbing.
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| 4:11 |
: zac gallen – what do you expect from him this year? I got him in faab last year for $21 in NL only, I know thats probably a little high, but close to potential value?
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| 4:11 |
: Yea keep him at that
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| 4:11 |
: The same expectation is something playable but bland. It’s not hard to imagine him going full Bieber.
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| 4:11 |
: Do you know if the auction calculator has been updated recently? Feel like the dollars for Steamer 2020 projections and Ottoneu Points are off. I think somebody had mentioned before it was off. Don’t remember, though. Thanks
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| 4:12 |
: I don’t think it’s been tinkered with recently, but don’t quote me. I’ll toss it in front of the dev team.
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| 4:12 |
: Actually, I better do that now before I forget.
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| 4:14 |
: Would take Cole w/ #6 overall in a 15 team mixed?
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| 4:14 |
: Cole is a legitimate option for 1st overall
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| 4:14 |
: So, yes.
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| 4:14 |
: I wouldn’t take him personally, just saying it’s not a wrong play.
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| 4:14 |
: Any love for Arraez in a deeper dynasty (OBP)?
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| 4:15 |
: He’s a lot of fun. It’s too bad he doesn’t have much power or speed, but we were saying the same of Jeff McNeil around this time last year.
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| 4:15 |
: starling marte/corey seager or Manny Machado/Andrew Benintendi in an OBP keeper? Contracts work out to be about the same.
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| 4:15 |
: Gimme the buy-low Benintendi/Machado
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| 4:15 |
: Doing my first dynasty draft. How much do you downgrade older players, like Verlander or Scherzer, when making your rankings?
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| 4:16 |
: Well again, I don’t have rankings as such. But it really depends on how you approach the draft. I don’t think I’ve ever picked a top pitcher fwiw.
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| 4:16 |
: My approach is to always pick best value. Which is always a young hitter.
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| 4:18 |
: If I’m trying to contend immediately, I’ll walk away with like Mike Fiers, Jordan Lyles, and Michael Fulmer as staff “aces” and try to catch some Gallen types as we go. If my early picks were more in the Wander/Luciano frame, then I won’t even bother picking any pitchers.
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| 4:18 |
: What do you think about Astudillo this year. He was a sleeper catcher pick for people last year and haven’t seen much written about him after a literal up and down 2019
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| 4:18 |
: He’s actually looking sleepy!
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| 4:18 |
: Could be a lot of fun as a C2 in deeper formats.
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| 4:19 |
: In a 12 team, H2H using OBP not BA , with Assists as the 6th bat cat, keep as long as you want them with no cost, you gotta keep 4 league: I’m keeping Yelich, Soto, and Devers. Who should be the last keeper: Bogaerts or Alonso?
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| 4:20 |
: Oooh that’s tough. In H2H I like to try to dominate certain categories. That leads me to Alonso for you.
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| 4:20 |
: Alex Verdugo seems to be flying a bit under the radar due to his injury last year and a perceived lack of playing time. His 2019 season seems pretty solid statistically, I have him in a keeper league, should I be concerned?
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| 4:20 |
: No need for concern besides the Dodgers overabundance of talent. But they made room for him last year when he wasn’t even established so they’ll definitely make room this year.
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| 4:20 |
: Do you expect any carryover from the injury to Gallo or do you think his production can mirror what he did pre-injury last year?
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| 4:21 |
: He should be fine. He’s had a goodly while for that hamate surgery to heal.
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| 4:21 |
: Assuming no other roster moves, how much PT do I end up with? Could I snag some starts at 1B to get into the lineup a little more?
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| 4:22 |
: With their riches and somewhat shabby division, I assume they’ll try to grab another year of club control if they can.
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| 4:22 |
: But if the pitching steps back far enough that they’re part of the pack, or if he has a huge spring, then they’ll be pressured to run him out there daily.
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| 4:22 |
: With Tsutsugo coming in (and Choi and others already in house), am I now a man without a spot in the MLB lineup?
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| 4:22 |
: I mean, it was always a clogged situation. It still is.
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| 4:23 |
: I might be able to keep one of ReyLo, Alex Wood, Chris Bassitt, and Chris Archer in a keeper league (where k/bb is a stat), which if any of those project pitchers do you think might be worth a small investment?
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| 4:23 |
: I guess I’d throw a dart at an Archer rebound. If he reels off a few good starts, then he’ll be right back where he was value wise. Everybody will always be skeptical about a hot streak from the others.
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| 4:24 |
: As someone who was a buyer of Soler last year in most of my drafts, I am shocked and a bit dismayed to see him going in the top 80 picks this year. He is an avoid at that price right? Maybe if he fell to 110-125 range?
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| 4:24 |
: It’s really easy to write him off as fodder for the regression monster.
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| 4:25 |
: Top 80 seems plausible though, especially if you blanked on big power early. You have to find soooo many HR in today’s game.
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| 4:25 |
: Personally, I’d rather go for the same profile later in Franmil, Aquino, etc. Not that they don’t have more warts than Soler.
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| 4:26 |
: I’m seeing Montas getting placed really high (like top 20 among SPs) in some rankings. That seems exceedingly high given his inability to stay healthy. Or do we just assume all arms are inherently risky after a certain point and bet on the talent?
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| 4:26 |
: I’m kinda with you on both points. An arm is an arm if there isn’t a specific factor to fear. But I see enough great pitchers that I wouldn’t have Montas in a top 20.
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| 4:27 |
: In particular, his breakout was related to his new splitter which is a notoriously difficult pitch to retain over a full season or year-to-year.
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| 4:27 |
: Virtually all splitter specialists go through long slumps.
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| 4:27 |
: Whoops, Hey Brad! 10 team dynasty league. Trade Julio Rod and Walker Buehler for Bryce Harper and Jack Faherty? I’m in win now mode.
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| 4:27 |
: That’s a yes for me.
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| 4:28 |
: There’s always a new JRod in 10-team.
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| 4:28 |
: What do you think about Domingo German in redraft/dynasty?
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| 4:28 |
: In dynasty, I’ll just wait for the dust to settle. In redraft with anything like a taut bench, I’ll look elsewhere and try to grab him in May.
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| 4:29 |
: And if you’re of the opinion that rostering him in fantasy is an unacceptable show of support, then I don’t think he’s so good that you’ll regret mentally crossing him out as ownable.
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| 4:29 |
: Are the sign stealing allegations (first against the Astros, now expanding to the Red Sox) affecting your valuation of players at all for 2020?
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| 4:29 |
: No.
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| 4:30 |
: Obviously it helps if you know what pitch is coming. But probably not as much as people think.
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| 4:30 |
: Victor Robles in a dynasty keep forever league. Keep forever, keep and hold or sell high after a solid but with warts 1st season?
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| 4:31 |
: Keep forever. For now.
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| 4:31 |
: Christian Walker in a NL-Only 10 team league is a starter, CI, or bust?
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| 4:31 |
: “Kevin” seems to have a knack for asking questions that catch my eye. Take a break buddy.
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| 4:31 |
: Walker is a starter in NL Only even though I’m extremely skeptical
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| 4:32 |
: I’d try to find better, but there is certainly worse!
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| 4:32 |
: What’s Mackenzie Gore’s ETA in SD? Forrest Whitley in Hou?
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| 4:32 |
: Whitley is seemingly just waiting for a rebound from his bad 2019.
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| 4:32 |
: Gore’s a little harder to peg in part because the Padres have shown a willingness to completely ignore service time implications.
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| 4:33 |
: And Preller is probably feeling pressure to deliver results.
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| 4:33 |
: jimmy nelson as $2 spec in ottoneu?
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| 4:33 |
: That’s a yes for me.
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| 4:33 |
: Are you a Jesus Luzardo believer? If healthy, can he be top 10?
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| 4:34 |
: Top 10 is always a bullish expectation. He has ace-like characteristics.
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| 4:34 |
: I’m definitely in as a concept, I’m not as sure I’m in for the price.
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| 4:34 |
: Will Toro-Hernandez get enough AB this year to matter outside of deep fantasy leagues?
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| 4:34 |
: I kind of hope not because it means Myles Straw isn’t playing.
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| 4:34 |
: Myles Straw is the drug we crave.
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| 4:35 |
: At least initially, there seems to be no obvious role for Toro or Straw. They’ll spot around the field when they aren’t in Triple-A.
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| 4:35 |
: Hi… what do you think of Wil Myers on a dynasty league? Is he who he is, or still some room to grow? Try to pack him with a prospect for someone like Dahl?
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| 4:36 |
: If you can pack him, do it. The Padres seem intent to reduce him playing time if they can’t dump him themselves.
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| 4:36 |
: Dynasty league – do you think Giolito is worth Wheeler and a Kelenic? Hate giving up a bat like that but pitching is huge in our league and the age difference and strike out difference seem to be something worth considering to me.
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| 4:36 |
: No. Depending on league depth, I prefer Kelenic outright. Wheeler is close enough to Giolito imo that this framework doesn’t make much sense to me.
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| 4:37 |
: If it’s like 10-team dynasty, then I might change my mind.
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| 4:37 |
: can i keep it up?
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| 4:37 |
: Sure. Just remember that several stud closers flop most seasons.
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| 4:38 |
: I went deep on Kieboom shares this season. SS depth + short term memory of owners = profit. Book it!
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| 4:38 |
: Too bad the Nats signed all the old guys in the last week.
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| 4:38 |
: I do like Kieboom. He has a narrow window before Garcia is on hand though.
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| 4:38 |
: I like Garcia more if that isn’t clear.
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| 4:38 |
: Tell me this is Jake Bauer’s year. Tell me this thing.
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| 4:39 |
: I’ll throw a dollar on him improving enough to be 12-team mixed relevant.
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| 4:39 |
: Fringe though, not a star.
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| 4:39 |
: And the sneaky 12+ SBs from 1B will be the main reason (did he even maintain 1B eligibility?)
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| 4:40 |
: Hi, I have the 1st pick in a keeper league. My keepers aren’t the strongest. (Gleyber for sure and then 2 of either Ketel, Bieber, Flaherty and Bryant). Will it be crazy to reach with the 1st pick and take Luis Robert?
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| 4:40 |
: Those are pretty snazzy keeper options imo. Also not sure I’d conclude Gleyber for sure.
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| 4:40 |
: I would not take Robert over whichever 2 of those 5 you cut.
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| 4:41 |
: And somebody else is probably facing an even harder decision.
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| 4:41 |
: any thoughts on jared kelenic getting a shot this year?
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| 4:41 |
: Seems like a stretch. I won’t say it’s impossible.
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| 4:41 |
: It’s not likely enough to worry about in 12-team redraft settings.
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| 4:41 |
: What would you put the odds at Zac Gallen even making the rotation? You’d think he’d be a lock, but they have a lot of options. It would annoy everyone in the fantasy community which is why it doesn’t seem like a stretch!
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| 4:42 |
: Can’t imagine they traded Jazz to bench Gallen.
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| 4:42 |
: 100% if not injured.
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| 4:42 |
: How does the PT in Reds OF shake out this year?
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| 4:42 |
: Don’t ask me this thing.
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| 4:42 |
: Did you know they Rule 5’d a stud OFer? Was talking with Matt Eddy about him earlier today.
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| 4:43 |
: No room for him 🙁
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| 4:43 |
: (Mark Peyton)
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| 4:43 |
: What to do with Forrest Whitley?
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| 4:43 |
: Wait. Possibly multiple years.
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| 4:43 |
: Got a $10 Neris, also keep a $19 Osuna? I am (surprisingly) more worried about Osuna’s job than Neris. Is that crazy?
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| 4:44 |
: Well, I’m not sending you to hang out with Danny DeVito in the loony bin.
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| 4:44 |
: Osuna is presumably much safer than Neris given that Neris has lost the job multiple times over the years (due to those aforementioned splitter slumps)
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| 4:44 |
: It’s a race! Tatis’s BABIP regression vs his skills improvement. Who wins?
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| 4:44 |
: Fun way of putting it
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| 4:45 |
: I think the real question is… can he slow down enough to stay healthy?
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| 4:45 |
: He plays completely out of control.
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| 4:46 |
: Which works for him and is super exciting and might not be sustainable.
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| 4:46 |
: Any thoughts on Will Smith in an NL only? I know he only played partial season, but is he already one of the best NL catchers?
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| 4:46 |
: Yes, definitely.
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| 4:46 |
: Not a high bar.
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| 4:46 |
: How do you rank relief pitchers in a dynasty league? Would you keep Rogers over Musgrove?
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| 4:47 |
: Only if it’s a shallow format. This sounds shallow though if you have to decide between the two. They’re both easy keeps in a typical dynasty.
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| 4:47 |
: Thoughts on Andrew Vaughn? 65 hit and 60 power catches my eye
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| 4:47 |
: Could be a generational star. Should be at least good.
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| 4:48 |
: I’m not using a first overall pick on him in FYPD’s fwiw. But that isn’t what you asked.
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| 4:48 |
: When will Adell be up you think?
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| 4:48 |
: It’s up to him
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| 4:49 |
: and how the Angels are doing in the standings
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| 4:49 |
: As long as they start fairly hot, he should be up in April just to be an athletic upgrade on the alternatives.
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| 4:49 |
: Even a chance to make the club out of ST
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| 4:50 |
: Also a chance he’s pushed waaaay back towards a 2021 debut.
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| 4:50 |
: Got a bunch of $5-$6 guys which are potentially resignable from free agency. Sano, W Calhoun, Biggio, Solak, P Lopez. Thinking of keeping Sano and Calhoun and cutting bait with the rest. Thoughts on that?
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| 4:50 |
: I’d put Biggio at the front of that list. The hype is real.
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| 4:50 |
: honestly, I might only cut Lopez from that group.
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| 4:51 |
: Solak you might get for $1
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| 4:51 |
: The others are at least $8
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| 4:51 |
: Are Josh James’ days as a starter over?
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| 4:51 |
: He was always a stretch as a starter.
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| 4:52 |
: That said, the Astros aren’t super deep in the rotation anymore so we could see him get a chance if some other options fall through
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| 4:52 |
: I expect they’ll at least stretch him out in ST
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| 4:52 |
: I’m seeing a fair amount of love being thrown at Nico Hoerner. What am I missing? I’m seeing virtually no speed or power. Are people just assuming the ball will make him a legit HR hitter in the majors?
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| 4:53 |
: I’m not in on Hoerner. He only got the call out of desperation. He didn’t appear MLB ready in any sense despite holding his own statistically.
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| 4:54 |
: I like David Bote and Tony Kemp more tbh
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| 4:54 |
: What do you make of Villar’s early ADP? To me he seems like he should be 60-80 range, not top 40. I have a keeper decision to make between him and Jimenez and my gut is saying keep Jimenez.
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| 4:55 |
: Villar is that classic guy who is a value one year and not worth touching the next
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| 4:55 |
: I’m not chasing him when he’s at a high point
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| 4:55 |
: But if he scuffles through May, I’ll be snapping up shares on the cheap.
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| 4:55 |
: Kind of intrigued by Trent Grisham as a late round upside play (the low whiff % makes me think the Ks will come down and his sprint speed has me thinking he’ll steal more bases in a new org). Could he do something like 20 HR, 12-15 SB and a .330+ OBP? Or is that like a dream scenario?
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| 4:55 |
: It’s very plausible. Could be even better tbh.
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| 4:56 |
: You said you aren’t taking Vaughn first in a FYPD. Who are you taking and why?
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| 4:57 |
: Probably Dominguez or one of the three SS’s. Some really nice options on the table.
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| 4:58 |
: That’s Abrams, Witt Jr. or Puason (definitely third choice right now)
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| 4:58 |
: Hey Brad, really enjoy your chats and advice. Jose Garcia, Reds, is he really fantasy relevant. I’m getting the impression he’s more of a glove guy.
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| 4:59 |
: If you enjoy my chats, allow me to plug this: tomorrow I’ll be starting weekly chats via Patreon/Discord.
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| 5:00 |
: Here’s the main page: https://www.patreon.com/BaseballATeam I need to do some housekeeping. |
| 5:00 |
: Best ball draft, 1st overall pick. Trout, Acuna, other?
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| 5:00 |
: Acuna or Soto
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| 5:00 |
: wait.
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| 5:00 |
: I was thinking the ProspectsLive 5-year best ball
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| 5:01 |
: Is that what you were thinking or just a 1-year?
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| 5:01 |
: Trout for a 1-year
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| 5:01 |
: In fantasy you like Puason over Erick Pena? Pena is the one with the big hit/power potential I thought.
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| 5:01 |
: Pena’s good too. Honestly, I would trade down from 1st overall if the option exists. It’s a strong draft.
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| 5:02 |
: Time to wrap it up. The Pseudofed is hitting hard.
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| 5:02 |
: in dynasty, what are your thoughts on trading a top-tier SP (Snell, Flaherty,etc) for Jo Adell straight up in a deep 6 x 6
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| 5:02 |
: That’s the dream isn’t it? Convert elite SP into elite bats.
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| 5:02 |
: I will say this, Jo Adell is not nearly as can’t miss as everybody makes him out to be.
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| 5:03 |
: Same goes for Luis Robert except I’ve seen plenty of doubters on his case
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| 5:04 |
: Adell could easily turn out to be the lesser, early-career versions of Javy Baez
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| 5:04 |
: I feel like Wander Franco isn’t can’t miss either imo
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| 5:04 |
: Disagree
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| 5:04 |
: That’s an 18-year-old who could post a 3+ WAR season right now.
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| 5:05 |
: Like as a mean projection even
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| 5:05 |
: I suppose the fantasy impact could play down though if he turns out to be a high average, 15 HR, 10 SB guy
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| 5:06 |
: How are you valuing Segura and McCutchen now that Kapler is out of Philly. Will the running shackles be removed?
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| 5:06 |
: Kapler wasn’t the one holding them back. They aren’t fast – especially Cutch.
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| 5:06 |
: Ok let’s throw the towel. Good game folks.
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Hey Brad, how did I do on this trade in my FG points ottoneu league: my $29 Jose Ramirez and $3 Swanson for $4 Kingery and $3 Biggio?