Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/22/2019

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a few minutes.

DynastyStarter: When drafting a startup dynasty and building for the future, would you fade pitchers completely to try and use auction $ on young hitting with the idea that you’ll compete in 2-3 years? Pitching seems so volatile that I feel like I can build via waivers/trades over the next few years…thanks!

Brad Johnson: That is absolutely one of the main methods to building a roster.

Brad Johnson: This is my roster in DTBNL – https://www.fantrax.com/fantasy/league/1ps1k57qjox1v897/team/roster

Brad Johnson: Which is my patron dynasty league, we just finished our 45-round draft last Wednesday

Brad Johnson: For those who don’t want to click the link. I took 43 hitters and 2 pitchers

Brad Johnson: Daniel Norris and Jordan Montgomery won the pitcher lottery

Brad Johnson: As always, you have to read the room a little. If a third of the league is going this route, you really ought to audible after the most elite prospects are gone.

Brad Johnson: (and tbf, I usually do not use this particular strategy. I’m testing it out)

michael simione: Help! 12 team Points league wins are worth a lot do you keep Paxton or Carrasco?

Brad Johnson: I’d need to know your opportunity costs.

Brad Johnson: They’re both fringe candidates for 20 wins

Stinky Cheddar: How deep is too deep of a dynasty league? I’m playing in a 50 round, 20 teamer with 25 prospect slots. For a prospect hooligan like me, I love this, but I also feel the parity of the league will be impacted by the more ‘hard-core’ prospect hounds of us.

Brad Johnson: Mandating the 25 prospects might have an unbalancing effect.

Brad Johnson: I know this is usually viewed as a way to avoid rosters like the one I posted earlier

Brad Johnson: But what happens is a few people with better resources/aptitude wind up with the best MLB talent AND prospects

Brad Johnson: And they can continuously upgrade

Jon Jackie Bon Bradley Jovi Jr: I play in a H2H Points league that changed the values of Holds (previously 5 points) and Saves (previously 8 points) to be equal – both worth 7 points, I think this is great and a forward-thinking approach to valuing relievers in fantasy. 1 – your thoughts on this, and 2 – who would be your top 5 holds guys that might provide sneaky value, given the change above?

Brad Johnson: I haven’t quite gotten around to reviewing bullpens in depth yet – it’s on the agenda for the near future.

Brad Johnson: So I don’t have specific names prepared for holds opportunities. In general, you want to target teams with high win totals.

Some Guy: Trade Idea – Maikel Franco and Vince Velasquez for Joey Lucchesi.  Who says no?  Phils get their lefty starter and can then sign Machado or Moustakas for third.  Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: Both teams? I don’t see the fit tbh

Brad Johnson: The Phillies are drowning in pitching prospects of Lucchesi’s quality or better. So why wouldn’t they prefer Velasquez instead? Maybe I’m out on a limb in preferring Velasquez to Lucchesi for 2019?

Brad Johnson: I just don’t see any reason for the Phillies to want a maybe homer prone lefty.

Brad Johnson: As for San Diego, the fit for Franco is there if the Phillies land a different third baseman

Brad Johnson: But maybe a low minors prospect instead?

Guest: Who do you think closes for the Brewers this year?

Brad Johnson: At this rate, Craig Kimbrel. Right?

Brad Johnson: Knebel

Guest: Altuve or Stanton keepers in 5×5 ottoneu at $50 a piece?

Brad Johnson: Altuve over Stanton. Both are keepable.

Brad Johnson: In the right situation

Brad Johnson: you should not feel bad about cutting them either

Prospitute: Looking at ceiling only, who are some lesser known potential studs in the minors? I am thinking along the lines of Brujan, Rocchio, Luciano.

Brad Johnson: After doing this 25-team, 45-player draft in all prospect mode, I’m completely lost. I’ve drowned in prospects. A few I picked who I feel very strongly about are Xavier Edwards, Luciano, and Alexander Vargas.

Brad Johnson: Edwards in particular has a Dee Gordon with OBP vibe to him

Brad Johnson: I was sad to miss Phillies Luis Garcia. Though I did get Nationals Luis Garcia.

Brad Johnson: And that’s not to be confused with Angels Luis Garcia.

Matt: Hi Brad..keeper question for ya. Which 4 would you keep out of these guys – Yelich (5th rd), Buehler (10th rd), Soto (10th rd), Nola (14th rd), Bellinger (18th rd), JFlaherty (20th rd) ?

Brad Johnson: Soto, Nola, Yelich, … … …

Brad Johnson: Probably Bellinger

Brad Johnson: League depth matters a little

tacopocket: Hey brad.  Thanks again for the chat.   5X5 12 man auction league ($300).  I think my 5 keepers are story @21, yelich @31, verlander @32, Flaherty @14 and wheeler @5.   Should I trade yelich for 2 of these guys:   whit@13, rhys@10, mondesi@5 and haniger@4.   So I’d probably drop wheeler and keep those 2 instead of yelich and wheeler.

Brad Johnson: Well if you saw Jeff Zimmerman’s post last week, Mondesi is a must (projected better than Yelich)

Brad Johnson: Take it with a grain of salt 🙂

Brad Johnson: I do think I’d do Mondesi and Hoskins for Yelich.

Brad Johnson: They both have like a 20% chance or so to outperform Yelich. Then you’re also getting multi-year value.

Sim: I love Brad

Brad Johnson: And I love lamp

Guest: Reynaldo Lopez top 60 SP next year or not there yet?  What about Rodon?

Brad Johnson: They’re both back end of the Glob for me. That’s well outside the top 60

Bruce: Youve mentionned you use a type of Stars and Scrubs strategy in Ottoneu. Why do you think it works well in that format, and how do you value your “stars” No auction calculator is going to have too many guys valued in the 50’s and up but you seem to say that a bunch of guys should be kept that high

Brad Johnson: As an industry – and this extends to real baseball too – we think about value wrong

Brad Johnson: The game is a maximization formula on our resources

Brad Johnson: For the purposes of ottoneu, we need to maximize the value of our $400 so it actually plays like $600.

Brad Johnson: So I preach rostered the best elite talents available to you at whatever they cost

Brad Johnson: You’ll also have to consider the non-elite guys who exist as “values” and strike a balance

Brad Johnson: This is all based on opportunity

Brad Johnson: Obviously it’s nice to not overpay budget for elite players. In my experience, that can’t be reliably accomplished in the auction

Brad Johnson: So you might as well know who you have pre-auction.

LarryA: Keep 1: Kluber for 30$ or Greinke at 20$

Brad Johnson: Pretty close to a push without other info. In these case, I prefer the better player and to trust myself to make it work with less money

Brad Johnson: These last two questions reveal something about my own preferences. Because my job is to know a little something about every player, I’m comfortable going to many $1 players in just about any format. It’s a built in strength for me.

Brad Johnson: If you’re less comfortable mucking about with the slop, then you should be more mindful of your budgets.

Brad Johnson: That said, if you’re participating in a Tuesday afternoon chat on FanGraphs, I suspect you’re also pretty comfy reaching deep into the waiver wire

Brian: In a 30-team dynasty league with 6 hitting categories (AVG, BB, XBH, HR, SB, PA), would you rather own the next 4 years of Ozzie Albies, or the first 6 years of Keston Hiura’s major league career?

Brad Johnson: Depends on my roster status. If I’m contending, gimme Albies. And vice versa.

Brad Johnson: Huira is not “can’t miss” by the way

Brad Johnson: So if you’re very risk averse, you may prefer Albies in both scenarios

Brad Johnson: Although I like Huira enough to take a shot (I also dislike Albies more than most)

B-B-B-Beni and the Jets: Beni and Eduardo Rodriguez for Seager and Corey Dickerson, 12 team roto keep forever. SS going into the year would have been Eduardo Escobar

Brad Johnson: I don’t hate it. Seager leaves a little on the table in 5×5, but he’s still very good. SS is very deep though. There should have been better cheap options available for purchase than Escobar

Brad Johnson: Marte, Peraza, Profar jump to mind – and I may be digging deeper than necessary

Worm Turner: Are you believer in Reynaldo Lopez’s second half? I was impressed it all came together when pitching beyond his highest amount of innings pitched.

Brad Johnson: I believe he’s a viable MLB pitcher with questionable fantasy utility

Brad Johnson: He’s a streamer at best

Crawfishboxes: How much trade value does Tony Kemp have?

Brad Johnson: Real or fantasy?

Brad Johnson: I wish they would set him free. I think the answer is close to none though.

rpo: Ottoneu Points – would you deal $19 K. Davis for $68 Trout pre-auction?

Brad Johnson: Without more info, yes.

808: Keep Schoop in otto FG points at $13?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: Run

Bob: When are the ATC projections coming out?

Brad Johnson: That’s Ariel Cohen’s system so he would know better than me. I think I saw he finalized them yesterday. Should be up later this week in that case.

What’s the Frequency Kenneth: Do you think Ken Giles holds the Blue Jays closer job this year?

Brad Johnson: That’s up to him

Brad Johnson: If he doesn’t hold it, you’ll already be very sad with his performance

M9: If someone put a gun to your head and forced you to bet on which of the current fantasy aces (e.g. Scherzer, Verlander, Kluber, etc) would sustain their success the most long term, who would you choose?

Brad Johnson: By age, I’d say Verlander (he already has a head start)

Brad Johnson: By years… I’ll go Chris Sale (he’s relatively young)

Brad Johnson: Aaron Nola’s another good bet

Speed vs. Speed: AL OBP: Mondesi or Mallex?

Brad Johnson: Mondesi

Brad Johnson: Mallex is higher floor, but there’s risk of a bust there too

Siri: Just looked at the rays prospect list. Damn.

Brad Johnson: Indeed. They have some prospects.

Who can you trust: Which end of your breakout do you believe more: Mondesi or Voit? (if it matters, this is an AL-only OBP league owner asking)

Brad Johnson: I think Voit is a legit 1B. They’ll obviously both regress.

Brad Johnson: Mondesi is believable enough too

Brad Johnson: no OBP, low AVG, and enough HR/SB that you won’t care

Brad Johnson: The profile is Billy Hamilton with power

Alex: Do you like Mondesi or Hoskins over the next 5 years?

Brad Johnson: Oof. I think the safe money is Hoskins.

Brad Johnson: But Mondesi can make that look VERY bad

Brad Johnson: Put another way, Hoskins is a high floor, high ceiling guy. Mondesi is almost a no floor, top 3 pick ceiling.

Canned Peanuts: Our 12-team dynasty league recently had a six-team trade. Ever see anything like that?

Brad Johnson: No. I’ve seen over 20 players moved in a 2-team trade

Zach Wheeler: Do I have top 15 fantasy SP potential this year?

Brad Johnson: Fringe

Brad Johnson: The top pitchers are still quite good.

Cutch is my Crutch: I’m rebuilding in an 18 team root dynasty league. We only have 27 roster slots. As a general rule, does it make sense to build hitting first before pitching?

Brad Johnson: Definitely. It’s just a much more reliable route to value.

Brad Johnson: Based on their own preferences, your leaguemates will decide if you should diversify with pitchers and hitters or only go with hitters.

Steak: Miggy’s Steamer projections: A) he’ll come up short B) he’ll meet them C) he’ll out perform them

Brad Johnson: I’d bet slightly short

Carl: Where do you have Strasburg

Brad Johnson: Pretty high. I don’t do rankings anymore as they’re just not helpful for any of the leagues I do.

Slurve: Have you ever went into a draft convinced to not draft a certain player, then drafting him, then immediately regretting it only for the player to have a great year in spite of your efforts to trade him all year?  If so, who was it?

Brad Johnson: Yasiel Puig most years.

Fred Yost: Getting overly excited about Trevor Richards would you mind throwing a bucket of cold water on T-Rich

Brad Johnson: Yea sure. If you’re in a wins league, you should take a gander at his bullpen

Brad Johnson: And then glance around that division

Brad Johnson: And check in on his run support too

Brad Johnson: So a good outcome for Richards is something like 5 wins, a strikeout per inning, a 3.80 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP. That’s a streamer in 12-team.

Siri: Keep 4: Carpenter ($17), Goldschmidt ($47), Soto ($17), Acuna ($20), E. Suarez ($1), or Bellinger ($22).  Could keep Goldy forever at that price, everyone else will be subject to mandatory inflation.

Brad Johnson: This is tough without a lot more info

Brad Johnson: Soto and Acuna on name value alone have to be kept. A $1 Suarez is exciting. Bellinger is probably the easiest for me to put aside. I don’t know how $47 compares to other elite hitters in your league.

Astudillo Apartment: Hey Brad, thanks as always. 10-team mixed, adding OBP and QS. Keep 7, +$5 every year. Definitely keeping Stanton ($30). Soto ($9). Eloy ($9). Buehler ($7). Mondesi ($7). The rest have issues.

Which two do you take between: Haniger ($6, but meh and replaceable), Cano ($7, but now old), and Mikolas ($8, innings but bound to regress)?

It’s a choice to cut Mikolas or Haniger, right?

Brad Johnson: I’d be thinking to cut Cano or Mikolas personally.

Brad Johnson: I think the cut is Cano

Brad Johnson: Thinking about the 10-team 2B landscape, you can get Cesar Hernandez for basically last round value

Brad Johnson: And if someone takes him, a dozen other viable bats are out there with eligibility.

Larry Hutz: would you trade Albies for Severino straight up in a roto 5×5 league? (Assuming you have Shaw/Senzel/Urias ready to take his spot)

Brad Johnson: I would do that without any backup

Brad Johnson: I’m assuming 12 team or smaller

eudaimon22: Will Vlad Jr. deliver significant value this year? I.e., will he get 400+ AB to make it worth taking him in the 3rd or 4th rounds ? If so, is it worth taking him in the 2nd round?

Brad Johnson: This is one of the hardest questions in shallow redraft formats. I could see going as high as late second round on the off chance he’s amazing. But I’d probably let others invest that high

Abc123: If you have Shaw and Chapman in dynasty – which one are you looking to move?  Chapman has more name brand at the moment and might bring back more overall value.

Brad Johnson: Do you have to move one of them? I think they’re both good bets to gain value over the next half season+

Harry : Thoughts on Jon Gray this year?

Brad Johnson: As always, a physically talented pitcher living in pitcher hell

Brad Johnson: Just because some guys figure it out doesn’t mean Gray will

Siri: Re: keeping $47 Goldy v. $17 carpenter…. Trout was priciest free agent at $71. Most studs go for high 40’s or low 50’s.  I’m tempted to lock in the elite production (OBP league) with the pricier Goldy, even though it may not be the most efficient move…

Brad Johnson: I think locking in Goldy is reasonable

Brad Johnson: And I’m not 100% on Suarez over Carpenter tbh despite the $16. You have to assess what an additional $16 can get you in the auction

Brad Johnson: Carp>Suarez, but it’s not a huge gap

Brad Johnson: But $16 can be deceptively little in a keeper league auction

Fade: Ozzie Albies or Freddie Freeman, dynasty points league?

Brad Johnson: So EZ Freeman

Floppy: Dynasty points league with K-heavy scoring for pitchers: Freddie Freeman for Glasnow and Jake Bauers?

Brad Johnson: Freeman side by miles and miles and miles

Brad Johnson: That’s about 15% of Freeman

Brad Johnson: Maybe less

Brad Johnson: No hyperbole

tacopocket: so in a redraft – how high do you take vlad?   3rd?   4th?

Brad Johnson: I think I seriously consider it in the 4th and 5th rounds. Which means I don’t get to have him

Deno: Will Willy Adames be worth holding this year?  Is his realistic upside a potential Lindor type break out (given the background) or just a lower level starter?

Brad Johnson: I don’t see Lindor in there at all

Brad Johnson: I’m really unimpressed with Adames overall. I’ll take dynasty shares on the pedigree to see what happens, but I think the likeliest outcome winds up feeling like a more powerful Arcia.

Mr Anderson: Muncy, Tyler White, Voit, O’Hearn…. please rank for this year and dynasty

Brad Johnson: Well, it’s Muncy and pick your poison

Brad Johnson: I like all 3 of those guys, but they’re the same asset class

Brad Johnson: Positive peripherals, small samples

Still another Mondesi Question: What about Mondesi vs. Jorge Polanco? (AL only, OBP) Thanks!

Brad Johnson: EZ Mondesi

Brad Johnson: I really like Polanco, but he’s just a high floor guy

Brad Johnson: Mondesi’s OBP is lethal, but any guy who can cruise to 60 HR+SB doesn’t need to be a 5-cat guy

A Random Dude: Vizcaino or Minter as most likely to finish the season with more saves?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say 60/40 Minter

Brad Johnson: Viz rarely finishes seasons

Houdini : Muncy had good numbers vs. lefties last year. Think Dodgers grant him 1B every day?

Brad Johnson: They would if I were running the show. But they’ll continue to play matchups and get guys frequent rest

Brad Johnson: I’d pencil in 575 PA with most of the off days vs LHP

Farm: Dynasty points league: Albies for Glasnow and jake bauers?

Brad Johnson: I sense some triangulating

Brad Johnson: So far, I’ve preferred Freeman to Albies and Freeman to Glasnow/Bauers

Brad Johnson: I also would go Albies over the pair

Brad Johnson: I’ll estimate that’s about half the price of Albies

Brad Johnson: Maybe more like 30%

Brad Johnson: Somewhere in that range

Brad Johnson: Who’s next?

mbriese: Is Ryon Healy worth taking a flier on in a 16 team league this season?

Brad Johnson: Yea sure, see if he flies

Brad Johnson: He’s unimpeded – or he will be if he’s not traded.

Brad Johnson: And that’s deep enough to stash guys who were briefly good years ago

Brad Johnson: Might as well double down with Vogelbach too

Charlie: Is Austin Dean worth rostering this year in deep or NL-only leagues?

Brad Johnson: It’s got to be very deep

Brad Johnson: There’s a chance he turns into a kind of Jon Jay-like player. I’d bet the under on that though.

Rich: In your stars and scrubs Ottoneu approach, is it almost a given you’ll wind up spending only $1-2 on the RPs?

Brad Johnson: It frequently goes that way

Brad Johnson: I end up with some $10 RP too

Brad Johnson: $18-quality guys like Roberto Osuna who hit the waiver wire because their team needed cap room in-season.

Brad Johnson: Got some Osuna, Betances, and Britton shares in that fashion

Yankz: Do you see Kyle Seager as a good bounce back candidate or is he cooked?

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll bounce to around a 100 wRC+

Brad Johnson: He’s been left behind by an improving 3B landscape

Matt: You buying shares of Sonny Gray?

Brad Johnson: No.

King Donko of Punchstania: Are you concerned with Kenley Jansen heading into this season?

Brad Johnson: Only as concerned as I always am about heavy workload relievers

Ken Giles Right Hook: Matt Strahm going to stick in the rotation? Or do you think he’ll wind up in the bullpen where he belongs?

Brad Johnson: I think he could wind up as a Follower. Or an Opener (he did a couple last season)

Charlie: Who has a better 2019, Brandon or Nate Lowe?

Brad Johnson: I think we’ll look back in 3 years and wonder why we made so much fuss about the Lowes.

Brad Johnson: Here’s a bold prediction. In 7 years, Josh Lowe will be the best player by that surname produced by the Rays.

Brad Johnson: He doesn’t have to play for the Rays to qualify

Brad Johnson: (Nor do the others)

mbriese: Wander Franco majors ETA? Worth stashing in limited keeper dynasty?

Brad Johnson: On the name brand alone, a stash seems reasonable.

Brad Johnson: ETA is like 2022?

Brad Johnson: It’s the Rays. They hold back everybody.

Fred Yost: You didn’t have to make water that cold for T-Rich! I’m a heavy “curator” with my pitcher’s starts I when I remove his starts that I would have sat him for his statline is much much more exciting, I’ll share my results later. On a side note is there a way to remove starts against top 5 offenses and @coors for an overall stat line i end up doing this by hand for pitchers and its very time consuming

Brad Johnson: Not that I’m aware of

Brad Johnson: It’s something I’ve put thought into and received no return

Adam: Just browsing through the team rosters for dtbnl is like working!   Uf ta.

Brad Johnson: Indeed

mbriese: Re: Healy – BABIP tanked after moving from Oakland. Seattle effect or just bad luck?

Brad Johnson: I’ll check

Brad Johnson: As I recall, he should be a low BABIP hitter

Brad Johnson: Yea, lots of soft-med pulled grounders

Brad Johnson: few extra IFFB last year so he could BABIP a bit higher. Say .280 range

Brad Johnson: Oh and that’s where the projections have him too – .287 to .289.

Ken Giles Right Hook: Odds the Pirates flip Vasquez and give the closing job to Richard Rodriguez?

Brad Johnson: Don’t they have Keone Kela?

Brad Johnson: By which I mean, they have Keone Kela

Brad Johnson: So I’ll say 25% they trade Vazquez and 15% Rodriguez is the guy who back fills

Charlie: Are there any common buzzwords on young players you like/dislike? Like do you draft/avoid guys who “have a little too much swing and miss right now but if he improves that he’s a star”, great athletes whose worst tool is hit, guys who just need to improve their changeup, etc.

Brad Johnson: Did you…

Brad Johnson: I literally have tomorrow’s post in the queue about three scouting phrases you can ignore

Brad Johnson: Have you hacked me?

Matt : Soft ethics question – one of my real-life friends in my league asked me for advice about a trade with another person in my league. The same exact deal has been offered to me as well. I told my friend simply “I cannot comment on this because of other negotiations” but should I feel bad if I go through with the deal after all?

Brad Johnson: I’m sure your friend will learn to go elsewhere for advice 🙂

Brad Johnson: Not a lot you can do about it, right?

dude: Better keeper – Aguilar or Dahl?  I have Beni and Meadows at OF already and Hoskins to play either 1B or OF.

Brad Johnson: I’m a naysayer on both of those guys

Brad Johnson: I’ll note Dahl has a lot of helium. You can probably trade him for more.

Matt : I have the option to sell (some of) the farm to acquire Chris Sale on a market-rate deal. h2h points so pitchers are worth big money, and any tossed in tot he auction go for well over what Sale would cost. My next-best starter worth keeping is Corbin. Do I go for it?

Brad Johnson: I’m a little wary of the injuries so it depends what selling the farm means

Brad Johnson: We talking easily replaceable prospects of Tatis-level assets

James: If given the choice of Hiura or Madrigal in a dynasty draft, who would you select?

Brad Johnson: I think I’m supposed to say Hiura, but I LOVE high contact hitters

Cletus: Markakis?

Brad Johnson: Of course the Braves signed him

Brad Johnson: ok, time to wrap it up

Alex: How/where can I find people for a new dynasty league? Any tips?

Brad Johnson: I’ve been getting this question a lot… I might try to integrate something into my Patreon. Existing resources are things like reddit.

dude: Leclerc, W. Smith or Viz – Do you like any of these closers for 2019?  If so, how do you rank and what kind of confidence in skills/roles of each?

Brad Johnson: Pretty sure Leclerc is a top 10 closer until the Rangers trade him

Brad Johnson: The other guys will have trouble keeping the role for various reasons

Brad Johnson: Ok, thanks for playing folks. We’ve officially reached the point in the offseason when I can no longer answer 80%+ of the questions.

Brad Johnson: Probably got to a little over half. Sorry if I missed yours.